more twitter controversy elon musk banned journalists who covered him. he said they posted links to his real-time location which he called in his words assassination coordinates. and the government kicking the can down the road for another week averting a shutdown it's friday, december 16th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. as joe mentioned, u.s. equities are under pressure at this hour. you are looking at 430 points down for the futures in the dow. nasdaq down 37

s&p off 55 this comes after the selloff yesterday where the dow was down 460 points it was the worst day since september 13th the nasdaq was down 3% the major inn p didices were do december we are still looking at solid gains for december s&p is up 8.6% all of this coming again as we start to hear more from the central banks and maybe the markets are taking this seriously that the global central banks will keep rates higher longer and that brings concerns of recession. that is reflected in the treasury market. if you look at the treasury yields we are below where we were a couple of days ago when jay powell spoke from the fed. 10-year treasury at 3.497%

>> retail sales didn't help. >> yeah. >> we are dammed if we do and damned if we don't now we got both. the fed will stay tight and the economy could be rolling over. that is the inflation worry. are you tweeting today >> i'm not tweeting yet. i'm worried to tweet some of the controversy of why folks could be worried to tweet. the platform suddenly suspended several high profile journalist whose cover the platform and also the company ceo elon musk who controls it. journalists from new york times and cnn and washington post. musk said the suspension stemmed from the new rules banning private jet trackers via a ban on sharing people's location in

real-time. the suspensions would last seven days criticizing me all day long is fine, but endangering my family is not another tweet was the journalist posted his exact real-time location which he stated was assassination coordinates. and we joined in on twitter spaces which was having a conversation about this last night. musk joined that discussion briefly and explained his latest policy saying you doxx, you get suspended. end of story he left minutes after he joined. the twitter account of mastodon was suspended late yesterday nbc news journalists were unable to tweet links to the pages. lots of questions about exactly what is going here when you think about the linking and like and what they were

doing is linking, i believe, to the elon jet which is a handle and also maintaining a operate w -- separate web site. you can track that you can do that publicly and available to the world this is not something someone is doing in a particularly unusual way. when you think of who the reporters are and the kind of critical coverage they have had of elon musk, it raises questions of what the true ambition is here and the shifting back and forth between free speech and not free speech. i care about free speech and happy to have my plane tracked to oh, my goodness nobody wants to be in danger >> the free speech argument goes both ways as it has been pointed

out. when he didn't own it and things were suppressed, you didn't hear people talking about free speech it's both sides. they flip back and forth it is hypocracy. he needs to be different from the former regime. he needs to do some type of algorithm. >> right now it is arbitrary. >> totally this is the guy who at one point said i'll take my company private on the number of stances from marijuana he smokes marijuana. then he is a mecurial genius that obviously has changed the world. sometimes in good ways, sometimes not. i don't want to defend someone who is like a baby with a hammer

in the china closet. i have no idea how it pans out i don't like the way twitter used to be whether i like how it is from here on out, i'm sure i won't like everything about it >> he can do what he wants it is his company. >> that's what people say before twitter can ban whomever they want it's not the government. they can ban whomever they want. you used to hear that. >> the conundrum is they never said it was supposed to be a public town square where everything was up for grabs. >> you hoped it would be we didn't think it was an arm of the dnc or the pro-fauci covid or bury every laptop story >> it is hypocrisy on both sides. >> don't think it applies to my family >> i do understand his concern with his son and what happened

i can understand what he is talking about right now is impossible to enforce. he is doing whack-a-mole how do you enforce that? you take it down and there are still other accounts for bill gates' jet and other jets. >> even talking about doxxing. i have seen someone on twitter throw out your address anyone can get anybody's address. it is not hard to do it is unsettling when you see it >> you used to have a big book in the mail once a year with their address and phone number a bit rich the other part i don't understand about the doxxingi piece of it. i don't agree with putting family safety in jeopardy. yesterday, air force one, a plane publicly available people take pictures of the president in real-time where he

is >> a cadre of 100 secret service guys around him. >> this is true of all sorts of things concerts and places. some of these are considered public places and others. >> you see somebody out to thinner. guess who is here right now? >> right where is the line in terms of how this is supposed to work >> how do you police it? there are simpler problems they can't handle >> think if you are the richest guy in the world and you alienate or po half of them. he is someone i feel unsafe dealing with elon musk right now. especially if people knew where you were at all times. i like being here. i hope we're protected here. considering the whackos.

>> you have to protect everybody. >> some people are more public and more -- >> you protect the blue check marks? >> if you are not at risk, you don't need to be protect itted >> how do you know would you guess paul pelosi? >> i think people are shocked with the security. >> i would have thought -- >> cameras. >> they had cameras. they were watching in washington they weren't paying attention. >> and the news came out and no break in there was a break in let's move on. twitter is not a public company. they said don't talk about twitter. >> the other piece is it is impacting tesla. shares of tesla. >> it closed up yesterday. it was down? we thought it would be 152 what impacted tesla?

selling $3.5 billion of stock in a week or reputational issues or the fed tightening with meta down 60% and netflix off 80% >> combination of all of it. >> exactly $4 trillion in options triple witching. >> why talk about trillions? >> adding to the volatility. >> definitely. it has been at 4,000 s&p is within 100 points of that for a while. there could be more the volatility today that means down. who knows? new developments in the collapse of ftx. kate rooney says they plan to auction four businesses. including financial technologies, ledger x and ftx

japan and ftx europe reuters reports that sam bankman-fried made a new bail application after the judge rejected the initial request of bail on touesday we will talk to kevin o'leary on later this morning after this comment from binance ceo changpeng zhao >> kevin is making a bunch of nonsense claims. he said he did not know binance was a shareholder of ftx he invested at ftx without looking at the capital he is specific in the way he accounts for the transactions two yearsing ago i think kevin is a liar. >> kevin will join us to respond to all that at 7:30 a.m. eastern. coming up, stocks under

pressure big time today after the ragged session yesterday we will talk to stephanie link of the catalyst that could move the markets before the end of the year i don't know santa claus rally. we don't have a lot of time left for that as we head to break, here is the biggest losers in the s&p 500. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve,

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welcome back to "squawk box. futures right for have i am pr proved down 385 looking to extend the selloff from yesterday stocks on the pace for consecutive losses joining us now is stephanie link at hightower and cnbc contributor. stephanie, we used to get strong n economic data. the market will do down. the fed has to go further than we thought we got weak economic data with retail sales with the higher rates having an effect

desired effect that's also a reason to sell stocks we're just not in a good place >> no, we're not in a good place. i think we sold off really because the dot plot at 5.1% not a surprise, but after the cpi number that was better than expected and two months in a row better than expected, people thought dot plot is not at 5.1 it doesn't matter. rates will stay higher for longer he told us that. powell told us that at jackson hole we have to live with it. i would simply step back for a minute though and just say that this is not all gloom and doom there is momentum in this economy right now. we are certainly not in a recession right now all ththoug got a bad retail sales number yesterday. we have higher jobs and wages and gas prices are coming down gas prices were down 13% last

month alone. one reason why is the university of michigan sentiment data came in better than expected. we are starting at a place that is a little bit better and little bit stronger than where most people thought. we will slowdown in 2023. whether it is a recession or not recession is remaining to be seen joe, we are down 18% in the s&p. we are down 30% in the nasdaq alone. i think it is time to start to nibble a bit that is what i have been doing >> we used to watch triple witching we haven't seen it much recently we are talking about it again today with the few options expiring i don't remember the last time it caused a significant move because of position squaring or whatever the unwinding has done in the past. is there a possibility today

that could surprise us in terms of the effect in how deep it could be could we have a big selloff based on options expiration today? >> i mean, it is entirely possible it is an excuse because people are nervous. how many people come on tv and talking about all this gloom and doom this certainly could be an ugly day. i think you have to just take a little bit longer term perspective and look at your favorite best in class, blue chip company and strong balance sheets and good dividends and cash flow. i know it doesn't feel good right now. it doesn't feel good ev everything i bought the last couple of weeks is down. at some point the fed will pivot. we are not close to the fed pivoting when they do, that is when the market will skyrocket.

>> you are adding new positions or old positions like what? >> so new positions is dr horton that is a function of the 30-year down from its high this is the best operator in terms of margins and roe you had 13 years of under production in the industry of the i know supplies are on the way higher i think you can see extended cycle. stock trade at nine times earnings ibm we have talked about it actually has been one of the best technology companies year to date. if you look back at earnings season, they were one of few that beat and raised they are becoming a simpler company. software companies are 75% of total revenues i think the theme for first quarter and second quarter of next year is currency.

currency hit at 8% for the quarter. every multinational company will see better currency with the dollar falling 9% from its highs. johnson & johnson. i like it. i always liked it. pharmaceutical company well run really strong. they are spinning up the consumer business. you have a catalyst and strong balance sheet. they have been raising a dividend or maintaining it for 50 years >> stephanie, if we take down the chart, do we get a full shot we do. i want to look at that tree. fill me in did you do that? do you -- people like you that are successful money managers, do other people do the tree? is it a fake tree? is it real what do we think about trees do we cut them down?

is it bad? should we get fake trees what is the latest thinking on what a good citizen does do we kill the tree? >> i don't want to kill the tree and deal with the mess of the tree i like the smell of the tree i have a candle. that's fake. i have a few of them maybe next week when i'm on, i'll do it from a different room so you can see it. >> that is real and that is trimmed. when you pull that thing out, is it all dressed up or do you have to put all that stuff on it? >> you have to put all of the stuff on it. >> oh, my god. you get trees that you point out. if you are going away this year, do you get a tree? >> absolutely. >> a real one? >> beautiful >> mine is fake this year. >> you have fake >> we leave them up for a long time not a good idea. >> we were going to go

yesterday. you don't want to get a wet tree how long do we wait? >> a week. >> it's like drenched. i wondered are these trees that would have sucked in emissions and co2? >> they are alive. >> are we going against the grain? is our footprint getting larger? i know you ask yourself these questions, stephanie you are doing your part. it's fake. >> paper or plastic? more coming up congress kicking the can on the bill to fund the government and avoid shutdown for another week. and a surge of the holiday travel we will talk to rasah nelson when "squawk box" comes right back

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time for the executive edge. round up of stories from washington today the u.s. senate approving a one-week extension of the federal government funding an ver v -- averting a partial shutdown and now will try to fund the bill through next september. the house passing that version of the bill this week. the senate passed bipartisan $850 billion defense spending bill aimed at the national security budget. that bill going to president biden for his signature. when we come back, former s.e.c. chair, jacob frenkel will

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good morning well ke welcome back to "squawk box" here from the nasdaq market site in times square. the nasdaq off 95 points s&p off 45 points. we will talk about ftx >> ftx founder and former ceo sam bankman-fried is jailed in the bahamas until his extradition hearing in february. our next guest says one option could be to waive extradition to the united states.

we have jacob frankel at dickinson wright he served at the s.e.c. division of enforcement jacob, people look at this and think, okay, the united states is moving. some people thought it took too long if you follow these things, it is probably something you think happened speedily. what are his options what happens next? will he be extradited back to the united states in the end >> becky, that's a great question there is a lot of talk of how extradition is inevitable. the mosre i think about it is te best strategy for him is to fight extradition. the reason for that is, and that is not to say he won't ultimately be extradited, but we're dealing with cryptocurrencies without get into the weeds too far, there is an issue of dual criminality. is the rule of law establish in the bahamas the same as in the united states.

if it is not, he cannot be extradited in those areas of law. that could be one area for example if the bahamas want to keep him and prosecute him first or if he is working something out with the bahamian authorities and he may be able to stay in the bahamas the other advantage inn fightin extradition, he is discuss the limit of incarceration the footnote is to waive extradition. if you look at the indictment charged, it is a bare-bones i indi indictment the next day, the united states attorney's office turned an indictment involving a ponzi scheme and more robust

indictment the fact we did not see that means, number one, there was a rush to get the indictment filed and ready for that tuesday second, what it means is there is the opportunity for negotiation because although sam bankman-fried is at the top of the food chain, that is who is the ultimate target in the view of many. the fact is he did not operate alone. charges include conspiracy they will not cut a deal with him to get to underlings there is an issue of not just sam bankman-fried, but those who conspired with him there will be acute interest -- >> you mean conspired outside of the company? i don't know why we would negotiate with this guy. you think other players outside of the company and not his underlings >> the answer isthat is part o the investigation. i agree with you in terms of negthe negotiating,

talk about negotiating to climb the ladder there is nothing to negotiate. the fact he is not in the united states, that means the united states doesn't have the ultimate leverage against him yet >> isn't fraud a crime in the bahamas? >> fraud is a crime in the bahamas. the question is whether fraud involving a sale of cryptocurrencies or because we consider them to be securities in the united states we have taken that position. yes, fraud is moneand money laundering is. >> this is old fashion extortion. >> jacob, you gave all of the conspiracy theory people what they are looking for no doubt, it was a bare-bones indictment to rush before the

congress hearings. are there political contribution s coming out with the congressional testimony and rushed to prevent that >> i think it was rushed to get the indictment to make a clear statement this is a crime. i agree. this is a crime. this is fraud. i'm talking about from the legal nuances involving extradition and what he ultimately can bring to the table in fighting extradition. >> to the point that joe was raising and we all have been trying to understand it. why do you think the doj wanted to front-run the hearing what was the rational? some thought it was an opportunity to lay a trap for sam bankman-fried for perjury if he didn't tell the truth or maybe he would have to plead the fifth. i'm not sure what is the explanation? >> my take on that was doj

wanted to make a statement this is a criminal act. there is criminality here. its into all of the categories >> i understand that you can send that message at 5:00 p.m. after he finished that testimony. >> you are absolutely right. at the same time, they also wanted to avoid turning into an opportunity for him to further make -- >> this is where i go. i think the doj really thought that he could not just quote/unquote taint a jury, but depending how he portrayed himself or portrayed in the hearing on the national stage -- look, he had been on a lot of national stages because he had been interviewed over and over, but this is a different level. >> by the way, i agree there was the concern of what he would say and how he would say it and what affect it would have there was desire that

congressional hearings are not effective when it comes to actually ending up with some meaningful result. the goal was for the regulators to come out and say there is fraud here it is a major fraud. don't look at this as something that is going fall solely on the hill it will resolve in the courts as a criminal case. >> will that criminal case also get into the aspects of political donations? i guess it has to because some of the charges are he was breaking campaign finance laws >> no question about it. i don't think the hearing was ever really going to touch on that if you look at the history of congressional hearings with financial fraud, it is the outrage of the fraud itself. i would not have foreseen that part of the discussion it is interesting you raise that because the question that goes back to where we started this conversation in the area of dual

criminality. would the bahamian authorities actually extradite on that issue as well? that could ultimately be carved out and i do not know bahamian law. if it comes back to again you have eight sets of charges against him in the indictments that were filed and returned and the question is can he negotiate a plea and also to the point you were raising earlier, becky, which is what is the benefit he can save the government an the lot of time by helping them walk through exactly what happened and where the bodies are buried and where the money is and there is value to the u.s. government. >> i don't know if he knows where the money is you and i went back and forth about clawbacks. how long does that last from legitimate transactions over a

year ago >> my understanding from my bankruptcy partners is the answer is yes. certainly more than a year and also state bankruptcy laws apply. i think that is all open that will be pursued as aggressively as we have seen it happening in madoff. >> jacob, two questions on that. one question and one other one i also spent several days talking to lawyers about clawbacks. my understanding is and tell me if it is different the clawback can only be the case if were you aware of the fraud if you didn't provide services meaning, i'm a burglar, a burgle a bank i go to the restaurant you can't clawback money from the restaurant because the restaurant provided me services in food and they were not aware

i had taken the bank's money you with me? >> i'll agree with you >> then the question becomes if i was a burglar, let's call it, taking from my innvestment company and made investment from someone else's company and got value or sold something else is that different from the restaurant analogy >> i think the answer is yes when you get into the idiosyncracies, i defer to the bankruptcy experts my understanding and based on cases, yes, it is. it really goes into and we are always hearing and seeing people say, oh, i provided services in good faith i acted in good faith. it is a facts and circumstances test was that really the case

was there favoritism that is what with the bankruptcy courts will delve into >> the burden of proof is people knew fraud was going on before you can claw it back >> the burden of proof -- no the burden of proof is to show the fraudulent transfer and show the fraudulent transfer. once that is shown, if i recall krk correctly, the burden of proof would shift to disproof that i defer to the bankruptcy experts. >> okay. jacob, thank you >> hamburglar is still around. he is still seen in stores i immediately thought of the

hamb hamburglar i love mcdonald's. coming up, stocks pointing to a lower open. that could be the restaurant you end with to after you robbed the bank could be details are next later, kevin o'leary is joining us he looks like a raccoon. >> like this >> one of the most enduring characters along with ronald >> and grimace >> harsh words from cz about vin o'leary. he will respond to those on "squawk box. we're coming right back. >> announcer: squawk coin is brought to you by bitwise. the world's leader in crypto index funds.

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adobe shares are higher. earnings are 3.66. revenue grew 10% year over year. it is in line with expectations. quarter guidance is above e expec expectations the company ceo will be on "tech check" in the interview today at 11:00 a.m. coming up, holiday travel season is upon us. are the airlines ready we have sara nelson, the head of

the flight attendants association, with us next. and twitter banning journalists as part of the new doxxinng rules "squawk box" is coming right back if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more.

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according to the latest aaa, 'tis the season to travel. i'll be traveling soon happily aaa estimates 7.2 million americans travel by air. that is a 14% increase from last year for more, let's welcome sara

nelson from the flight attendants association her union represents 20 airlines sara, good to see you. i'm getting on a plane, happily, hopefully it will be happily >> are you going here? >> what's that >> justin and kate are headed to -- 450 grand a week are you meeting up with them in. >> let's not say >> did you know you can pay $45 $450,000 >> joe, that is not the holiday spirit >> probably not. >> sara, the better question is and i'll be on a commercial plane. >> we like that, andrew. >> charter one >> i wish. that is the question how good or bad this experience

will be this winter, sara? >> there is incentive pay. they staffed up. these are short-time fixes i want to recognize that almost the entire industry is in contract bargaining and that was put off in the pandemic. people need to catch up with inflation and all of the things we lost in bankruptcies and mergers. employees did not see real improvements over 20 years that is why it is hard to attract people to airline jobs they have been trying to maintain people with incentive pay and people are willing to pick up overtime, this is a short-time fix we need a long-time fix to stabilize the airlines for the long run and attracts people to these jobs for the long run. that will be better for everybody. >> one of the things you hear from the airlines is their problem on the labor side is pilots across the board. there's just not enough pilots how do you see that given that pilots are not your business, but obviously very related >> i think pilots have been very clear about that they have been out picketing

de delta pilots got a deal after the 99% strike vote. they are taking a look at the industry standard and voting on that now you know, this is something that has to be addressed because these jobs have been shipped away so parents are not telling their kids, this is great job. this is not just pilots. it takes longer to get pilots into the seats because of the training it is all of the jobs in the aviation industry. we see it with flight attendants, too. you cannot attract the same number of people to the jobs they keep moving on to another airline that may pay better. they are keeping up with that and that is important that they keep up with the attractiveness of the jobs to run a smooth operation. >> i have a political question of sorts we are showing airlines on the screen we should show railroads i'm curious as somebody who

leads a large union like yours to the reaction the biden administration approached the railroad situation first, trying to create a settlement supporting the union and then switching gears. >> the biden administration brought the rail companies to the table when they had not been willing to negotiate for three years. that was the good first step that moved things along. it did not get to a place where the workers needed and what they expected i'm disappointed that well before the strike deadline, congress interfered with the right to strike of the employees. if the rail members who had been taking in tons of money and pushing out stock buybacks before paying employees and getting what they need and had to face the workers willing to go on strike, i don't think there would be a strike. no one needed to intervene we needed to let the collective bargaining process play out.

the company has to have something to lose just like the workers have to have something to lose with the strike dead d deadline >> the world of unions and political support for biden or administration or democrats as a result >> i think it is important we demonstrate we back the workers organizing right now what the biden administration has to do and congress has to do is pass funding for the nlrb which is overseeing worker rights and many campaigns like starbucks and amazon they are backed up with all kinds of violations of that law by the companies all of those investigations. the nlrb has to do their work. they are massively under funded. in a $1 trillion omnibus bill and it is in the millions to have the worker rights pushed forward. >> do you think the nlrb is an

objective for the organization i ask because you were there i interviewed andy jassy we talked about unions and he has been sued by the nlrb for comments he made abouting with d working directly and effectively said do you think the nlrb will rule against the nlrb. i thought there is a lot of truth there. what do you think? >> that doesn't make sense the nlrb is there to enforce the labor laws exist the labor law is not sufficient enough they have been violating the law. founded violating the law. they had to stand out and read from the law and the statement from the nlrb to the employees last week. so, they have not been following and the reason that union busting is illegal is because it works. it works to keep workers from having the free choice to screen

join a union and collect tively bargain. that has led to capitalism we have to have the check for workers to exercise the ability. i think shareholders and people should be happy to see union contracts are being reached because that means it is going to stabilize the unstable labor market that means there will be a long-term success. in the long run, shareholders will be paid more. it is the difference of counters and visionaries. >> sara -- >> there you go. that's what i have to say. >> we have to leave the conversation there happy holidays i look forward to seeing your colleagues in the air over the next couple days >> andrew, great to talk to you. becky and joe, happy holidays. >> thank you >> see you in st. baarts. >> i'm going to nicole's when we come back, elon musk banned journalists who posted

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♪♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. good morning stocks set for another big slide. we are looking at significant losses as we get closer to the opening bell. twitter suspending the accounts of journalists who recently written about elon

musk we will bring you the latest. more fallout from the collapse of ftx. the crypto exchange looking to sell off some of the businesses as wall street looks to see what has taken down sam bankman-fried's company. we look to kevin o'leary about the news and the response to the ceo of binance saying he is making nonsense claims the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with rebecca quick and joe ke kernen take a look outside.

you are looking at red on the screen dow off 362 points it has been moving lower this morning. nasdaq off 81 points the s&p 500 off 41 points. let's show you treasury yields you are looking at the 10-year treasury at 3.497. 2-year treasury at4.258. let's show you the energy. wti crude at just about $74.67 and crypto this morning. bitcoin now back down to $17,000 after getting close to $18,000 >> it bwas above 18,000 it was really more jay powell than anything else >> i think it was really interesting what mark mobius was talking about yesterday. you had people go into crypto

because of the higher interest rates compared to other places in the market. now the fed is raising interest rates, it is not as attractive i hadn't thought about that before >> that's why the pivot is what everybody is talking about nothing will go up until we get a more clear idea of the terminal rate and how long we will be there. when you talk about, you know, openly 5 may not be anywhere near the top remember when we did the numbers yesterday and a year ago we were at 1 pto 1.5 if it is 7 or something like that, we will talk about this late next year >> unless we're in a deep recession at that point and they say we don't have to do it because recession is taking care of inflation for us. >> deep recession. awesome. at least we're not tightening. that's why it must be -- let's say you came from a different

planet or weren't interested in finance. people would say none of this makes sense. >> you could say that for last ten years. >> the last 500 years about money matters. twitter suspending, apparently, several high profile journalists who cover the platform and recently written about elon musk. the journalists from the new york times and cnn and washington post. musk said it stems from new rules banning jet tracking the uss suspensions would last n days musk ran a poll asked how long the time-out would last and then a second poll. musk said criticizing me is fine, but doxxing my family

location is not. and he called the real-time location posting basically a assassination coordinate and nbc news journalists were not able to link twitter stories to mastodon. let's get a like at the movers this morning with kristina partsinevelos >> getting upgrade from jpmorgan chase. they think the worst is behind the company and meta will have more cutting to come the price target is now $150 which is well above the 18 we are seeing today right now let's move on to adobe continuing the rise after the earnings report yesterday after the bell

a sign they are seeing steady demand for design software despite the environment and cuts to company budgets they will complete the purchase of figma next year definitely room to grow with shares up 4.5% right now wells fargo downgradingp pr. the firm deals with year end charges. lastly, apple named the top pick at evercore the moonshot projects are becoming something they see an advertising of business and an apple pay.

shares were up and now not trading down at 136.32 andrew. thank you. big year to date losses and joining us to talk about if the worst is over for more pain to come we have the senior research analyst with us. what is the answer, sir? >> andrew, most of the bad news and headwinds are priced in. the cyclical headwinds are real and higher interest rates are factors. what we see at current levels are companies innovating and investing and transforming themselves and create value for customers and shareholders if you look at nvidia, a leader in ai, which adds value in drug

discovery, ai is at the early stages and nvidia is the leader there. we see significant growth over the next 12 to 24 months we continue to like google t youtube has attractive growth over the next couple years and google cloud platform is the early stages apple is impacted by the production challenges in china they are also not immune from the macro. we see a continued broadening of the revenue drivers. iphone install base is glorowin. we see select opportunities. >> i'm looking at apple. what is fair market value in your mind? >> i think it is significantly higher from here i can't give you a specific number i would say the free cash flow gen generation of the company is tremendous that will continue as we look into the latter part of the year

ahead and in 2024 and 2025 it is the free cash flow growth driven by iphone services and wearables that gives us confidence in the shares at current levels >> where do you land on meta >> meta isand advertisers. the company is in transition we see attraction in reels meta is further out. we are watching it carefully we prefer other names like google or amazon with a significant advertising opportunity. >> you said amazon and advertising. that is something people don't think enough about, i think, which is to say the amazon business become an advertising business how big a business can you think

it can be? >> andrew, that business is over $30 billion. over the next several years, that is becoming a $50 billion to $150 billion business they are able -- the story is about empowering sellers small and medium businesses and enabling them to deliver value to customers on the other side, they continue to invest in prime one-day delivery content they do that in what is the face of tremendous headwinds. if they are able to balance the costs and invest in new areas, advertising as one example, that will drive free cash flow growth for amazon over the next 12 to 24 months. >> dan is a buyer. we're seeing red maybe that is the opportunity. dan, thank you talk to you soon >> thank you coming up, we're going to talk more -- just pick out one

job of the crypto and collapse of ftx and speak with cnbc contributor kevin o'leary. yesterday, the ceo of binance took shots at o'leary. that's coming up. and then we have imax movie coming up. we will have the latest on "av "avatar"'s premiere. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four to five-hundred bucks. he just didn't wanna do that. he was proud of the price he was charging. ♪♪ my dad instilled in me, always put the people before the money. be proud of offering a good product at a fair price. i think he'd be extremely proud of me, yeah. ♪♪

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are watching treasury yields this morning the futures fall you see 10-year treasury below 3.5. very odd disconnect. maybe it makes more sense if we are headed into a slowdown the stocks leading the s&p lower in pre-market. wow. oil stocks lincoln national halliburton. "avatar way of the water" guaranteed to lead the box office and take in $175 million. the budget to the original 2009 film was massive coming in at

$250 million the director james cameron says the film would need to be the third or fourth highest grossing move to break even joining us is rich gelfand this is set to be the widest rel release of imax. rich, it is understandable with this film -- this film was made for imax full disclosure. i saw the movie this week. i saw you there. i talked to you a little bit about it this is one of those i want to go to the theater to see >> i think consumers will, as well, becky. there is early data that has come in. i know there is skepticism 3d and length of the movie i can't turn on a channel or listen to a radio show without people saying is it going to work i can give you an answer it's working in korea, it was the second

largest opening of all time. in china, the biggest previews second biggest in china we ever had. in paris, france, second of all time in melbourne, australia, they have 1:30 a.m. and 4:30 a.m. movie times. this is phenomenal >> what was the biggest? second to what >> "avengers end game." i don't know the budgets, becky. i don't know that jim knows the intricacies of how it works. this is going to be a big movie and particularly a big movie for imax as you said leading in, it is a play on two tracks i think there is how the movie does overall in imax, it is a separate track. it reminds you of the first

"avatar" with $250 million on imax on 250 screens. we are opening this on over 1,500 screens. it is not lineal we will not do that much more. judging by the u.s. with amc, we are about 35% of the pre-sales in the country in china, we were 30% of the pre-sales. this is going to be a big movie. >> the theater release is important. this movie, three hours and ten minutes long that window is something the theaters have been negotiating back and forth with the studios for a while trying to shorten it and roll it out sooner how long is the release window >> i don't know what they decided. it is long pretty much because it is such a big movie, everybody cleared out almost everybody until the end of january >> competing films

>> there is "babylon" and "puss in boots." >> when will i watch this from home >> not much march or april >> that is a long window >> also, this is not the kind of movie you want to watch at home, as you know, because you saw it. it is a movie of scope and scale and sound. i think watching it on your couch isn't going to cut it. >> having the option at home will bleed off some people i preface it by saying i would rather go to the theater than stay home. what kind of movies do bring people in? i think "top gun maverick" is one where people would go out. we improved our home studios they have bigger tv screens and comfycouches what does the consumer look like

compared to 2019 >> i think big blockbuster movies one of the things is cultural events he want to sit at your christmas table and talk about the movie with your family and friends and family overseas or on the west coast. something you want to share. streaming has its place, particularly in episodic television if you didn't want at the same time, people got used to that. to create a big cultural event, you want to see it at the theater. an important point that answers the overall nature of the question is this particular movie which will not be one weekend. the marvel weekends drop off quickly or the dc movies that is because they are fan boy movies and everybody wants to see them opening weekend the key is you will not know how big this movie is until three weeks from now when you see how it holds up. when we look at our advanced

sales at some theaters, we are 55% sold out in the third week already. you will see that playing. there is a little lbit of a trak where it did this or that. the legs are relevant. >> every movie i have been to, i saw in theaters. i wonder if there are enough people like that to make amc or other chains -- you have a specific niche -- obviously, the big event. normal theaters. peel people like to go out. i like the popcorn why do i need to see "tar" on a big screen i like it better on a big screen that on a big screen is what i

like better. are there enough people to make this as vibrant as it was 20 years ago? >> the industry loves you, joe >> they love my son. am i the only one? >> you bring your family i actually don't think there is enough for that. there have to be structural changes for the industry this needs to be less screens and more targeted movies i think the model for conventional exhibition doesn't work as a structure right now. i think you will see that. >> when you think about consolidation and restructuring, where is imax play into that i always thought about you during this process. >> that's nice >> do you ever become the guy who rolls everybody up and restructures everybody then imax isn't just imax? >> i don't like that business. >> you don't

>> they have fixed leases tand they have a lot of debt. we license our technology on a global basis when a movie like this comes along, everything goes to the bottom line. i predict even with this movie it is hard to see a lot of them being profitable in the near term with the high cost structure. you know, people asked me that and the strong balance sheet >> i thought you become the guy who picks up out of bankruptcy or restructures it >> i don't thinkthat is great business >> what if they like you as the business and see you as the savior is there a chance one of them could try to buy you especially with amc with the money they had to do something like that? >> there's a chance someone comes and buys us. i don't think they have the financial strength to do it. they are burning money pretty

quickly. >> what would make sense i assume you like being independent. >> for imax? what makes sense long term we continued to grow our content footprint. 30% last quarter was foreign language content if you go to japan and you want to see anime, you will see that in imax. chinese new year this year, a film called "wandering earth 2." the first was the biggest opening in the history of china. this is with imax cameras. >> is "avatar" anime >> anime is motion capture a special process. it has a different look and feel to it. >> i don't know. >> as a cinema guy, you should recognize. >> i know. i know i guess i'm getting it -- you go

to a film festival and you will not see superhero movies you are seeing real art. >> there's a great audience for that joking aside, lots of people want to do that. we did "nomad land" in imax. we do some stuff >> i saw her she was at telluride >> now we have the name dropping going on u unbel unbelievable >> "women talking. have you seen that >> i hung out with frances she is lovely so i can get legitimate credentials >> i saw her on the stage. i'm not -- >> rich talked to her. >> i actually did a live event around macbeth i saw her die in the movie she came out and gave her a hug. i said you're alive. thank god. she has a good sense of humor. >> i may watch this year i have seen every move the academy awards >> rich, thank you for coming

in >> after ridiculing the audience audience >> i want to see who wins. coming up, investor and cnbc contributor kevin o'leary will join us. he was a paid spokesperson for ftx before it went bust. plus his tesla stock suffering because musk is trying to fix twitter he spending so much time on the platform and now suspending journalists. we will discuss that stay tuned >> announcer: time for the aflac trivia question. before founding ftx, sam bankman-fried worked at what trade being firm the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues a hospital bill for me? mm-hmm. for $1,200? ga-a-a-ap! did you say "gap"? yeah, he did. he's talking about expenses that health insurance doesn't cover.

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now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world. afr >> announcer: now the answer to the aflac trivia question. before founding ftx, sam bankman-fried worked for which firm the answer jane street capital welcome back to "squawk box. futures right now down 400

improved a little bit. 394 after the bad day yesterday for the averages nasdaq was down a lot yesterday. down 90. the s&p indicated down 45. then didn't hold 4,000 for long. check out stocks on the move darden with latest quarter seeing restaurant sales exceeding the street darden lowered the guidance as well as that stock up .50% winn winnebago reporting better than expected results that stock off 1.5%. and maxar technology agreed to be bought by private equity firm maxar has technology powering

google maps app. that stock up 123% up next, the latest on sam bankman-fried and implosion of ftx. cnbc contributor and former paid spokesperson for ftx kevin o'leary will join us stay tuned bconare watching "squawk box" cn

welcome back according to a filing, sam bankman-fried's company is looking to sell businesses as part of the bankruptcy joining us is kevin o'leary. kevin was a paid spokesperson for ftx. he testified in front of the senate this week about all of this kevin, i want to get into a host of things about the situation where it stands and your role with the creditors and your comments about cz at binance and his comments about you that took place on this broadcast. before we do that, i want to say there are a lot of people and i

see them on twitter and they send me emails and the like who are uncomfortable about the role you played as a spokesperson for ftx in all this. i just want to, a, put that out there, and also one of the reasons they are uncomfortable about it is that you have yet to condemn sam bankman-fried. in fact, when it all first happened and the company went bankrupt, you said you would support him and invest in him again. i wonder if you condemn him today. >> let's clean that up the comment regarding backing him. that was me prior to all of these allegations. obviously, he is un-investable i will continue to do this for the last 15 years, i invested in many entrepreneurs who have gone through catastrophic failures. that will not stop

obviously, i will not invest in sam bankman-fried. let's clean that up. regarding being a paid spokesperson all of us feel foolish as far as being an investor. all of us feel like idiots no question. normally, i want to point something out in venture investing. 8 out of 10 times the venture fails. if i had to sit in front of the senate for every venture that i invested in and went to zero, i would need an apartment there. the point is you fail a lot at this this is a catastrophic failure reasons for failure is different. this is alleged fraud regarding not condemning him this is america. the justice system provides assumption of innocence until proven otherwise it is still america before sam bankman-fried and it will be after sam bankman-fried. any individual is given that right, including sam bankman-fried. i understand that the herd is

angry and twitter and all of the other social media platforms allow for that everybody has become judge and jury and sentenced him i get it many of those people in their lifetime will use the benefit of being a citizen assumed innocent until proven guilty. they don't know it yet sorry, not going to tell anybody they're guilty until they have gone through due process not now. not ever any individual. >> kevin, you are an actor in the drama. you had a front row seat to sam bankman-fried literally up until the very end given what you know about him personally and given what you now know about the numbers and what has happened there as you said you are trying to get money back for creditors -- what do you think happened do you believe this was a fraud? >> i don't have the facts.

john doesn't have them yet he is going to get them. i'm looking through my records i'm willing to find a forensic audit of my accounts a lot of bad things alleged here some will be true, likely, because there is no money there. somewhere the cash is gone so this is the beginning of the journey. you are right. i did speak with him prior to him going to jail because i'm after the facts of where the cash was let me address something before you go any further yesterday on the air, cz called me a liar. that suggested that i perjured myself two hours in froblnt of h senate this week i assure you that is not the case another parable when i was young, my father put him on high k his knee son, never call an irishman a liar unless you know it is true.

i said why is that because the irish are crazy. i didn't know what it meant back then, but i'm not happy about that of the at the end of the day, i have no ill will to the guy. he is part of the story. you did work on "squawk box. we talked about $2 billion or $3 billion that transaction the largest transaction regarding the balance sheet in recent 24-month period he confirmed it was $2.1 billion. then he confirmed he had $550 million. half a billion of ftt tokens at some point we will look at that week of november 6th. you ask anybody why was sam bankman-fried or the company forced into bankruptcy it was jamming down the lanst half a billion that gave him no option is that the global blow to get rid of your competitor

i say yes. after the interview i got a text from a lobbyist saying don't go anywhere you are coming back. i bet cz has a date with washington can't wait to see him there. >> kevin, the only thing i would say, if that is the case or what he did led to the uncovering of what we now suspect and alleged in the documents or complaints from the s.e.c. and criminal complaint, too, the criminal complaint doesn't get into that as much as the idea of this was a fraud underneath it anyway if cz did bring down the demise of this and let us see what was there, maybe all he did was sweep the tide out and we saw sbf was swimming around naked. that may be the bigger issue if he did it, maybe it was the favor to reveal the ponzi scheme

>> he was trying to buy the business on wednesday. the idea he was going to buy it. >> he was doing that to throw more shade at him? >> i don't know. we don't know. if it was fraud, he would not have made an offer to buy it this guy is a huge shareholder of ftx he was he didn't see the fraud either at the end of the day, the question becomes clawback. you have talked about it the last two days. is the $2.1 billion the madoff style clawback if i'm on the credit committee, i'm looking forward to the clawback every shareholder has to have an answer i normally would have written this off like the other eight venture investments. not this one i'm staying on this one to the end. i'll teach this course at harvard one day. this is going to be a case this will be a chestnut. this is an extraordinary situation right now. >> kevin, time goes so quickly

it seems like only yesterday i was totally arguing with you on "squawk box. you went from charlie munger's view on bitcoin to charlie sailor's view on bitcoin you may know nothing, but never in doubt you are strident when you said it was worthless and rat poison. six months later, you are a bitcoin p bull i didn't understand that conversion did that coincide with the $15 the million you got from ftx >> no, i was investing 3three years earlier. i changed my mind with switzerland changing their minds. joe, i mentioned the guest lecturing things i do. it leads to graduating cohorts of engineers these are the best at m.i.t. or business school at harvard

i started to notice back in 2018 and said where are you going a third of the class will create entrepreneurial efforts. they are going to the blockchain you can't spend that much -- >> i believed it back then i'm trying to figure out -- >> i have to stop you. i have to stop you you just said you made this conversion in what year? >> i think it was 2018 i started investing. >> okay. just for a point of fact may 14, 2019, you came on television and called bitcoin garbage. >> also, kevin, prior to that, you hadn't looked at it all? most of the people have never looked how tit works you had strong opinions?

>> i remember it was 2017 coming on "squawk box" talking about the tokens of the hotel in new york the regulator said they were not okay with that that was the beginning of realizing things are tough with the crypto maybe you are right, andrew. maybe i started in 2019. long before i became a paid spokesperson it didn't change my mind i'm an advocate of this because i think the productivity of crypto is sdra oextraordinary. i understand this. this is a threatening technology and disruption always come in. >> kevin, let me ask you a different question you want to be on the creditor committee. the argument you made if this is a madoff-style ponzi scheme, effectively binance and cz should get the money that went

to them and you are arguing should be clawed back. typically, you have to show to some degree that they were quote/unquote in on the fraud or knew about it or part of the conspiracy, if you will. the question is how you differentiate and i'll be strayed, how you differentiate them versus yourself insofar as there could be an argument to be made given the work you did for ftx and whatever money you were given -- i know you say you are down to zero whatever that is should be clawed back and you would not be a creditor >> it is interesting i'm happy to have that discussion with you. i have been clawed back to zero already. i given it back to somebody. i don't know who yet i want to find out i like to get on the credit committee and look for the trail. there is no question about it. if i'm not the only person's account scraped to zero.

not just the tokens, but the accounting records i find that extraordinary. the cz situation it is not that easy. these are the two largest shareholders doing a transaction together cz is a 20% shareholder. that's a lot >> kevin, to put a fine point on it one thing he suggested you were lying about and as if i under stood it, a number of components to it and maybe not as clearly as we would have liked as we understand is the idea when you became a spokesperson for the company and you didn't look at the table and understand the relationship that binance had with ftx >> look, no one did, obviously including cz 20% shareholder. he should have had more access to the data than i did that's significant share holding. at the end of the day, every investor, every 90 of us

who's who. sequia on down we all look like idiots. >> we were talking about endorsements and endorsees larry david in the ftx super bowl commercial. tom brady is a spokesperson. some people wouldn't expect a larry david or tom brady, fairly or unfairly, to known or understood or do the due diligence they should have done. they look at you and think you should have. >> that's interestingto differentiate me i can tell you, he is a better quarterback than i am. there are things we do differently. let me tell you the theory and why sam bankman-fried was hiring all these people he was very jealous of the accounts at coinbase he wanted to figure out how to build a retail base quickly.

it is not crazy what he did. putting a name on arena. it makes sense if you want to make a brand ubiquitous in america. maybe jealous is not the right word that was the way to do it. it is not a crazy theory companies advertise. they do it this way. obviously none of us wanted to be in the mess if we could have avoided it venture vesting. you can do all of the due diligence you want you will still get 8 out of 10 go to zero that is the stat since they started cover it in boston at the end of the day, that is the nature of investing. it is risky. >> a question of the creditors since you are trying to get on the creditor committee if it tthey recover money, who should get paid back first people who lost their money that they were asking them to hold or

contractors and spokes people? where should that fall in your opinion? >> i always -- my opinion about this is when you become an advocate for getting it back on the credit committee, you take care of the small people fuirst i don't mean small people. diminimous amounts they are hurt the most i don't think we should get anything back. we are venture investors we are big boys. we lost money. we understand it i don't want anything back there until people who had the money in the accounts get theirs back. that is fair we know venture investors will get it wrong 80% of the time here is another one. there is something wrong with sweeping omebody's account of assets where is the money that is the question i have. everybody on the committee wants the same answer. so does john wray. this is a classic case he said it himself this week in

n not of the senate. this is follow the money >> kevin,are you still calling yourself a venture investor? we are talking about the fee you got as a spokesperson? your venture investing was your name used as a spokesperson? is that how you are an investor? >> joe, bad ews. you know, i have a very large advisory business with governments and companies. >> in this case of ftx >> i can't change the past yes, i was a paid spokesperson >> did you invest your own money in ftx or get paid are you conflating money you got paid by ftx that you lost or did you invest your own funds? >> money is fungible. the answer is, yes, i lost money. i had $10 million swept. $10 million that is gone

>> you got paid by ftx >> it is not that simple i have to pay the tax man, too think about that >> did you get that money most -- was it a gross hub you didn't pay the money on the taxes? >> i know it was a gross-up. >> you didn't pay your own money on the taxes. >> i know this is really upsetting you. >> when you try to dodge around the essential point that you lost your own money. >> i'm not dodging, you're not going to get me there. i totally disclosed every cent when i went in front of the senate and on top of that joe, i don't set the price, the market does, they decide what they're going to pay me. this is a capitalist society >> why do you call a venture investor, is it semantics some

would say ill-gotten gains because you were legitimizing a scammer. >> i b insisted on becoming an investor i'm not going to endorse this company unless i'm a shareholder so i want access to that deal. i took some of the proceeds that i was paid and reinvested into the company. i don't endorse companies unless i'm a shareholder. otherwise i'm not aligned with everyone else. 54 companies in my portfolio. >> investing money that you paid you as a spokesperson. >> no, i didn't have to invest in ftx to become a paid spokesperson it wasn't on the table >> kevin, we do appreciate engaging with you on this topic, you're a principal actor in this what's now turning out to be a sad drama.

we look forward to talking to you again. >> thank you >> talk to you later, kevin. when we come back, much more on the markets today after the dow's worst tumb ilen three months stay tuned you're watching "squawk" and this is cnbc

coming up we're going to

talk tesla and twitter and whether if musk can effectively chn better mu more "squawk box" ahead stay tuned

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futures continue lower let's take a look at some of the stocks leading the dow lower caterpillar, down 2% johnson & johnson, not much change since we built that board. home depot, american express, cisco systems, all down today. when we come back, we'll dig into top retailers as they get ready for the final push before the end of the year. this is "squawk box" and this is cnbc fi

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good morning, futures to another selloff. what's moving right now a lot of it including some fallout from disappointing retail sales report the impact of inflation on some major names in the sector and some more elon musk

controversy overnight, twitter banning several journalists who musk said pointed his realtime location but were also critical of him the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc rain for 40 days and 40 nights 40 hours and 40 more hours it's supposed to stop at some point this year. no, by 4:00 i guess. u.s. equities futures down it's raining red, not raining men. nasdaq down 60 and the s&p down 35 and change. i liked that song.

i think it was my favorite. >> good one to dance to. >> i don't like to dance i need a lot of alcohol. treasury yields, right now -- i don't mean right now, for me to dance. i kind of feel like i do need alcohol. 3.48% on the ten year. the two year, 4.24%. exactly 80 the inverted yield curve. some news out in the last half hour. reporting that goldman sachs is planning to lay off 4,000 employees. the cuts could be up to 8% of the bank's workforce, if that's the case that would be the 2% of employees laid off according to semafor. the stock off by about $3.

right now, the among movers, kristina is here good morning, becky. guardian health, shares are plunging, following trial results of its dna test for colorectal cancer. shares of nvidia are moving lower, they feel like estimates have come down actually for investors to re-enter the stock and the company should help drive the stock higher in 2023 you can see shares are down over 1% with the greater market and down over 41% on a one-year basis. shares of u.s. steel, they were let's just see, yes, they're continuing their trend high in pre-market

a little over 1% after posting better than expected guidance. scrap prices have actually begun to increase this month and darden restaurant shares rising, it saw an almost 8% increase in same-store sales in the quarter. i guess a lot of people like the bread, you know, the breadsticks, free. >> endless breadsticks and endless salad. >> i'm a fan of it and had several bowls of soup, yeah, shows how fancy i am it works >> kristina, we'll see you later. today's selloff that we're seeing early on, markets open at 9:30, close at 4:00.

the whole world i guess is now in a tightening phase, jason, it's probably as simple as that. wouldn't do it allen with hours, we did wednesday, they did -- we got the ecb, everybody's tightening, it's fact of life. >> it's raining rate hikes actually as it turns out in 2022 and ruining everyone's world cup watching it's the fun police from the fed in 2022 but i think it's worth noting a few things we actually think we're much closer to the end of it than the beginning and the likelihood that you could see rate cuts in 2023 the story you'd look forward to then, one other note it's global for sure other than in china, a different story, what you saw in the ecb yesterday, was that when you're

really, really late like the fed was sort of late you run into this situation where inflation is so high that even when you start to predict a recession you still have to raise rates. >> that's the nightmare scenario for anyone investing in anything stagflation. you got to think about what's perfect for stocks, low interest rates, solid growth and low inflation, what's the opposite of that? that's where we are right now, where does that put the s&p when it's all said and done in your view, jason? >> 2022 has been a story to adjusting to the new rate picture, if you turn back the clock to a year ago we were at zero,sie all the way through march so this has been an incredible adjustment period

when you think about your s&p forecast is really where our earnings are going to be, for us and for me, there's a real probability of a recession, that's actually consensus, but i don't think you're going to get a ten times or 12 times multiple i think it could stay higher and we've done a lot of adjustments. i don't think you see a crash from here but it's going to be quite choppy as we adjust to a earnings picture >> jason, is it possible that the fed, or powell, realizes what he says can be very effective the and if he talks about staying at higher level longer maybe we don't need to get there, do you think in the back of his mind he really believes that we get to where he's talking about or is it all about sort of body language, remember the bazooka in your

pocket, you got to have it in reserve, words can mean a lot, does powell really believe we're going above 5% or 6% >> well, the fed actually seems to believe that we are going to 5 and a bit above 5 and the real news for me from the fed was the adjustment of the dots of course the statement was pretty much identical, you went from having very few fed governors and the fed believe you were going be above 5% at the end of the year in september, that's a big adjustment, i don't think the fed believes they'll have to go much further than this and that's again, part of their rhetoric, what they're doing as you say it's a lot of performance art, we didn't care about the statement we cared about the presser. >> i'd prefer that you didn't

have to go as far as you said you were going to go are you as worried about inflation being deeply engrained into this economy as the fed is, that's the other thing, they didn't think it was deeply ingrained, you didn't know then, how do you know now? >> so, i don't think it is and for sure the transitory, the word "transitory" what powell was trying to fight was to be in his first paragraph of his obituary we got great data on is actually it's rolling over in goods the real question is wages and services, retail service numbers those are rolling over

big problem the fed has is jobs, one a lagging indicator, two part of their mandate and three, politically sensitive. jason brady, president and ceo of thurnburg investment. transitory, is there anything that's not transitory, really, when it comess down to it but it is friday >> yeah. >> go from realizing we're all going to have an obit. >> and we're all going to have a weekend. retail stocks lower, on how inflation could impact some of the biggest names in the sector and what they're seeing in terms

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. the futures are under some pretty severe pressure that comes after a drop of more than 750 points yesterday and the dow by the way was the best performer, s&p down by 2.5% and the nasdaq down.

the s&p futures off by 38. u.s. shoppers pulled back on spending in november when you compared to what they were spending in october, in fact the biggest decline we've seen in a year, our next guest says that inflation is a big problem but we're back to 2019 when it comes to sales and discounts the ceo of j rogers -- when you consider that retail sales were down month over month and that's with higher inflation that we've seen going through these things, what does that say to you about the state of the u.s. consumer >> the inflation is down a little bit from last time. you're right, this was a good news/bad news, 5.6%, a fabulous performance for any november in the last 40 years except for this one, and they're down from 6.5% in october, down from 7.9%

in september, so the retailer is seeing the consumer pull back on back the other hand, amazon ran events in october they would have run later we moved the consumer around a little bit and the consumer is holding back because consumers think this year for the first time in three years i might get a deal if i hold back because they're starting to discount the product and it will still be there because they're not selling out and i really think this weekend is going to tell us the whole story, too bad i'm talking to you today instead of monday, this is the big one, this is the super saturday the friday before that we'll have a huge sunday and the retailers have to pull back whatever they've given up in the early part of december and november to get back to where they want to be, do i think that's going to happen i think the consumer is little

light right now but all and all retailers are in good shape. they're going to see strong finishes here and why are they just what your last guest said, jobs, jobs, jobs, they've still get one, they didn't lose one the ongoing continuing claims didn't go up, so the consumer can still spend and they have spending capacity they're not fully loaded up on their cards and they still have savings they put back during covid. but we'll see what happens here. we'll finish strong. >> i think the question also becomes winners and losers quickly, can you run through who you might be one of the beneficiaries and who's going to wind in trouble? >> walmart, macy's winning the

game dick's sporting go ing goods isg the game nike, levi's, western wear is wearing the game so, yeah, we're seeing some of the group do well because they controlled their inventories pretty tough if you're done farther, not as pretty for the dollar stores. >> rapid fire winners and losers thank you. obviously a lot more to talk about with the retail season coming up. we'll see you very soon. >> thank you >> rattled those off.

coming up, we'll talk tesla and twitter and whether elon musk can effectively run both. tesla down another 30% since the twitter deal closed.

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elon musk in the news once again this morning after twitter suspended a number of journalists, musk twittered late last night to explain his moves and tweeted more than 20 times after midnight eastern time about various topics only one of those tweets was about tesla tesla stock is down 2% this week and 55% this week, earlier this week musk tweeted i'll make sure tesla shareholders benefit from twitter long term, tim higgins joining us, and also mary a professor at texas christian university's school of business, great to have you both on. great sports teams mary that comes to immediately when i think about tcu but that's not why we're here.

mary, i think about steve jobs, some people historically and nobody's perfect, some of these gen geniuses, there are some warts that come along with it, mercurial behavior that's part and parcel has he gotten worse as he's gotten more successful >> i think he is the question is he stretching himself too thin so the biggest question when it comes to tesla, who's running tesla? he's been pulling people from his other companies from spacex and tesla and is that hurting the company that he originally started and the biggest issue he's an entrepreneurial leader,

he's clearly a genius as you said but he's getting out of his range here, he's an nengineer ad now he's on twitter. >> tim, we saw a lot of elon's tweets over the years long before he owned twitter, they're not that much different than what we saw in the past, do you think he's changed do you think he can run tesla with all these distractions, a lot of the reasons tesla is down, yeah, they've been a big seller, him, it did mean something that he had to buy twitter, he had to monetize a lot of his holdings. >> you hit it on the head. the big difference now is he owns twitter and who's going to rein him in if he goes outside what's acceptable. in recent weeks people have been questioning some of the moves,

so much the comments he's made about former twitter executives and potentially putting them in danger about unfair insinuations of things they've done and now, the bigger issue here is he owns the platform. he can do what he wants and this old adage you don't get into a fight with a man who buys ink by a barrel he's ready to rumble on that platform with anybody that steps up >> i wonder what does it look like when you get past the point of no return it's fun to watch, tim, and you know we're all adults and and i i'd rather be privy to it than not see it, when it does become so serious where there's real damage down? >> this is a drama, it might be

helping engagements and bring people to the platform the worst thing that could happen for twitter is that people lose interest in twitter and that would be a bad thing for him on one hand he's able to generate attention and one thing he's done for years for his other companies but you start to deal with the things in the last 24 hours where he's suspended journalists that starts to raise other questions about freedom of speech and put twitter in the crosshairs in europe, where the new digital service act has passed it protects journalis and journalist, this could be a business issue beyond than just being a drama. >> with the twitter fallout in the last three weeks i don't like the old twitter either, i like this twitter better than the old twitter, how bad can this get to where we don't want hate speech, we don't want violence initiated, caused by

what's on twitter, but then again, we don't want one side controlling all the buttons, pushing all the buttons totally with their side and mine that's even worse >> yeah, it's really interesting to see what's going on because it's part of a bigger dynamic that's happening in the world and it's really political and moral issues that's what musk has waded into with this the question is, how do we have dialogue on this the interesting thing musk only wants a certain kind of prix domestic of speech, say what he wants to say -- >> which is the kind of freedom of speech that the prior regime wanted with the ministry of truth they had operating >> i think this is a big pushback against that, pendulum

swing, real societal debate. >> right, it's so tribal in that people are so comfortable in their own corners and eco-chambers. >> tim, i was curious how far this sort of regulatory backlash you talked about the eu, we talk about the impact on not just twitter, a private company, but the other businesses tesla, spacex, big government contractor obviously, is there a tipping point which -- if there was someone to reign him in it would be regulators. >> the challenges are multiple there from the space world to the automotive world to now in social media, that's a lot of drama and you bring up this kind of question of where's the next

fire going to be the way he's managed all these companies over the years, putting his attention where the digest disaster or problem has been and right now that's on twitter. that's why tesla investors are so worried and so concerned they worried he's distracted and what's the next land mine he's missing perhaps by being focused on twitter rather than on tesla heading into potentially a recession, early signs of concern of slowdown in sales, potentially in china, cutting back on production, these are real issues in a macro-economic environment that raises worries. >> well, tim, we're going to leave it there appreciate having both of you on today. good luck. when is it it's coming up. >> the 31st. >> the first bowl is actually today. miami of ohio, i don't know why

i know this, i got 10.5 points i did take miami how did you know >> i don't know. >> thank you both. >> okay. coming up in just a moment, putting today's selloff in context, we'll show you how the major indices are holding up and plus morning joe scarborough weighing in on the big twitter news of the day. suspending the twitter account competitor mastodon because of a controversy of political ramifications. "squawk box" is coming right back

welcome back to "squawk box" we're watching the futures this morning and again you're looking at pretty significant red arrows yesterday the markets closed down the dow was down by about 760 points, off the lows, because it had been down almost a 1,000 at one point. making up for losses gained this morning. of course those losses yesterday, it was not just the

dow industrials, it was the s&p which was a bigger loser on a percentage basis, the s&p was down by 2.5% and the nasdaq was off by 3.2%. for the month of december there are some significant losses, too, with the dow down by 4% the s&p, 4.5%. for the quarter so far, some pretty solid gains with the dow up 15.5% the nasdaq up by about 2.5% and treasury yields which have come under pressure recently, the 10 year is up, down earlier this morning, now 2.55% and check this out, an aquarium in berlin that was home to more than 1500 exotic fish burst earlier this morning an eight-story-high aquarium, it

was part of a sea life attraction in this hotel it flooded in the hotel lobby and the nearby street. two people suffered injuries from the glass and had to be hospitalized you talked about a million liters of water that poured out and gushed out according to a spokesman crews were unable to access the ground floor because of debris. the ap is reporting that it could have been because of cold temperatures maybe this makes this a story in our wheel house, the cold temperatures could have caused a crack in the glass that led to the weakness and again -- >> this is part of the energy complex. >> this is early on. check out the before pictures. it was eight stories high, that cracked and everything went pouring out, again, they're lucky it happened very early in

the morning and it wasn't a crowded lobby when this came down >> bad for the fish, too. >> 1500 of them, gone. >> a scene in a movie, stocks selling off but interest rates aren't moving. steve leishman looks at whether this will force the fed to raise interest rates even higher f it's working the higher rates then the long bond goes down because the economy is slowing >> you need the long bond to go up to slow the economy and vanquish inflation >> circular. >> we're back in the loop here, just rewind, stocks have sold off hard, but interest rates haven't risen influencing financial conditions, a big way for the fed to steer the economy and bring down inflation, falling stock prices is a piece

of that, but inflation rates is a more important goldman sachs' financial index has eased since november raising the question of whether the fed is losing control of the interest rate market and what it may have to do to get it back. fed chair powell said on wednesday this is not a problem for the fed in short term but could be longer term i talked to david mericle from goldman sachs, he tells me, quote, what would make powell to respond, continue easing and financial conditions plus growth accelerating to a level clearly above potential. in the battle between the fed and the markets over this outlook, former new york fed chief dudley he has little doubt about the outcome. the fed has the hammer and all it has to do is keep going the fed will win every time.

most fed observers i spoke with the central bank is likely to raise by a quarter point at the next meeting 50 is possible in february or later, growth is accelerating and interest rates gap persists. >> all right, steve, thanks. is it time i think it's time. it is. meantime, elon musk making some news after twitter banned several journalists who posted his location in real time. joining us right now is joe scarborough host of morning joe on msnbc we've been talking about this all morning and trying to figure out what the political implications to some degree, do regulators step in and i want to talk about the politics of it at some level in terms of the sort of shift where elon musk had been in terms he's now

associating with and what it all means? >> we talked about this before, i don't understand it. this guy's an inventor, he was the richest guy in the world, he builds businesses, he creates jobs, he grows the economy, that's what he's done throughout his life, i don't understand why the guy continues to play in this sewer that's called twitter, put someone in charge, take care of tesla and your other companies and leave twitter in the hands of somebody else, this is, again, something that makes no sense. when you have the drudge report, with a screaming headline that calls him the world's richest hypocrite, you got a guy who was a first amendment max mallist supposedly i want to take over twitter because we have free speech problems and then they

breathlessly go after what they call twitter files, politicians, media outlets who may have had their leaks sup pressed and now he's outright banning twitter. we have had this conversation time and time again, what is he doing? i talk to people close to him, they have no idea. he's losing money and he's got bigger problems than regulators, see what happened with mark zuckerberg over the past year or so, lost $100 billion, i think he has to be more concerned about market forces and investors than he does have to be about regulators because he'll lose a lot of money in the markets. >> joe, i don't -- i can't use my name to be anything you helped me in the past after

you stole morning joe, would you like to return to the ministry of truth twitter that we had under the old regime, do you remember how they did things now we've gone herky-jerky 180 degrees to the other side, maybe we need, an algorithm that covers everything, hate violence, violent speech, he lets something subjective controls who gets banned >> first of all, joe, it breaks my heart and it really does, that you would say i stole the name "morning joe. >> isn't your name charles and chuck sar broug was a star >> exactly i say you're the original morning joe. >> you do.

you do >> you're the man, joe >> but here's the deal, twitter is a private business, i know this sounds radical to people on the far left, i know this sounds radical to people on the far right, twitter is a private company. if they want to ban my account that's their business. if they don't want to promote other stores that's their business but when you don't put a new york post story up in the middle of a political campaign, you're going hurt your own credibility which is going to hurt you this the marketplace, that's the same thing that's happening here no, i don't want a ministry of truth, i want grownups in charge there. but at the end of the day, it's twitter. it's like the washington football team, if you don't like how dan snyder's running the wash washington commodores or

whatever day call it, buy it twitter is a private enterprise, i'm so sick and tired of people preaching about the first amendment and free speech. it's a private enterprise. >> except for the fact that elon musk has been telling everyone that he bought it to make it a public town square that's the conundrum here. >> that's why the drudge report called him "the world's biggest hip hypocrite. serious investors are going to say, this guy's eyes off the ball, what is he going to be doing next selling us elon musk nft trading cards? this is not a guy you want running a company if his eye remains off the ball, so again, it just hurts his him, hurts his

brand, i think hurts tesla >> right, we did see that you know -- can you imagine i'm going to take my multiga zillionaire car company private at 420 and using 420 as the code for marijuana, he does crazy stuff, joe, at twitter it's kind of like a baby with a hammer, things are going to break as he's there, i mean, we don't -- i worry about violence, i worry about hate speech, but as you point out it's twitter and it's entertaining and that's why we're all on it. the drudge said it's an ambien tweet and mushroom tweeting apparently. >> as someone who's targeted by let's just say by the president of the united states and accused of being murderer by the former

president of the united states, there's a consequence of hate speech being put up on twitter i'm a big believer in the market >> do you think the doxxing was real with his son being targeted, putting a pin on where his location is -- >> i don't know, i don't know if that happened or not if elon said it happened my god that's serious, what i'm saying to you, though, joe, right now because of section 230 people can come on and twitter can publish hate speech, they can publish threats, they can keep those threats up, i know about this, they can do nothing about it, which will increase death threats towards people out there, again, section 230 gives them the freedom to publish whatever their publishers just

like facebook are publishers just like so many of these tech companies are publishers they need to be held to the same standard that cnbc is held to, msnbc is held to, and if they're held to those standards and if the marketplace actually have an impact over this, then i think you'll see much more reasonable rational approaches to hate speech but as long as they're allowed to live by one set of rules and the rest of us have to live by another set of rules elon musk or whoever takes over twitter in the futurecan be as reckless o hate speech as they want. >> joe scarborough, good to see you, sir happy holidays >> what about morning scarborough country? >> i like that "morning scarborough -- >> i had joe's workld

>> that's pretty good. let the market decide. >> okay. thanks, joe. >> all right, thank you. when we come back we'll get jim cramer's first take on the trading day ahead. futures again this morning, the dow down by 400 points the s&p down by 44 programming note for you, don't miss an exclusive interview with the former federal reserve vice chair, richard clarida, he has rejoined pimco and he'll be on closing bell at 4:00 p.m. eastern.

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all right, welcome back. the new york stock exchange and check in with jim cramer, the futures keep getting worse, down more than 400 this morning after some significant losses yesterday, a triple witching isy at play here what matters, what's going to stick? >> it doesn't matter what the fed does, it's over. they can't do a thing. inflation is going to run away at the same time earnings are going to be horrible these are people who just frankly don't look at the individual stocks, they look at their s&p numbers because if they looked at the individual stocks it would require a lot of homework say, oh, things are really bad i'm not buying it. i think there's real interesting options every single day, including today. everybody is much too negative i think you should be negative on crypto. that -- i think that let's say today everyone's negative on oil. i'm not negative on oil.

if china comes back strong, we'll all look like idiots you're putting up cryptos. i'm negative on the srp and the light coin and the dogecoin. i'm yet to find anybody who really takes them. there are probably some paid spokespeople who i like right now. >> i don't know if i want to dig a little deeper there. i think i know where you're going with it. >> what do you mean? >> i hear your point. >> what do you mean? where am i going with it >> i watch your twitter feed >> why don't we put up williams sonoma and lincoln national. >> yeah. >> these are $80 billion with a nonbitcoin, they're really destined to be wiped out there are some people who conflate blockchain with them. i keep saying if blockchain were so great why would the genius us at alphabet and amazon --

>> there are coins we're not sure why they're worth anything. >> there are 200 coins in coin base and people can buy that stock. cathie wood buys coin base the companies that are down a lot that are interesting to me then there's this whole other subset of things that i don't even regard as securities. g gensler has to because of the 2-year where it is and the 10-year where it is, you should sell everything this is fatuous reasoning on the part of people who are not rigorous, get up, make a judgment about where the s&p is going to end be up and then decide, hey, you know what, think the niners are going to be against the eagles in the super bowl turn off the darn amazon and read the adobe call. they go, have fun, play with their kids i haven't played with my kids in 20 years i'm too interested in adobe. >> no reason to body shame

people calling them fatuous. >> by the way -- >> that's not necessary. >> if you are -- if you confess to guilt, you're not innocent. see, innocent until proven guilty has to do with a particular thing in the constitution that says if you don't admit your guilt, you have a right to argue that you are not guilty you can't confess your way out of jail. you're not allowed to do that. if you confess to a crime, you're no longer innocent. you're what's known as guilty. >> innocent until proven guilty under the eyes of the law. >> unless you waive it. >> under the eyes of the law, not everybody else. >> no, not the irs you're guilty until proven innocent >> that is true. >> thank god there's 80,000 more of them coming. >> yeah. >> jim, thank you. we will see yoin au few minutes. >> absolutely. >> "squawk box" will be right back have a good weekend. hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,

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over a half hour from the opening bell on wall street. let's talk more about the markets with jim paulsen, chief investment strategist. good to have you on. since the last time you've been on, you've been right and wrong three different times. is that what a trading range --

times when we're, you know, headed through 4,000 that paulsen is so good. then next thing you know we're down is1200 points in 6 hours paulsen, terrible advice what's going on? is that a trading range? >> i guess it is they're pretty violent anymore, joe. i'm starting to question whether we really need fed meetings. it seems like we don't get anymore information out of them than we knew going in and yet all they do is create a lot of volatility and this one has again overall. you know, i think the fed's got to start feeling a little lonely at the highest point of the yield curve with everything else along the yield curve moving away from them and i do think that what they're doing is unsustainable i think it will be done fairly soon i still think they'll be cutting rates in 2023.

the good news i think, joe, is while the fed is not yet easing, it's still tightening, there's a lot of easing going on you know, you've got fiscal deficits, gdps going from 3% in july to 5.25%. starting to ease again the dollar is off 10% from the highs. it's easing. bond yields from two years out are off 50 to 75 basis points. junk spreads have been tightening more than a percentage point mortgage spreads are tightening. commodity spreads are down that's easing. if you think about what that's doing, look at companies today companies are enjoying a 20% decline in industrial commodity input prices from their highs and unit labor costs just reported in the third quarter of 2.4% that's down from 8.5% in the first quarter and capital costs

across the yield curve are coming off so they're enjoying, you know, lower commodity costs, lower labor costs and lower capital costs all very stimulative effects. then if you look at the consumer, they're looking at gasoline prices falling below $3 at the pump, but more importantly, the real wage rate now has been rising consistently in the last five months and is up at a 3% analyzed pace after about a year and a half of chronic reduction in the real purchasing power of wages. they're enjoying a rise in real wages. there is some good stimulus. i think it could well offset a lot of what the fed's mistake is doing. >> amazing, paulsen. we're getting out in like 40 seconds but you just did a classic ben franklin close you mentioned like 10 or 12 easings and then on the other side, all we've got is jay powell saying he's going to keep tightening labor is still tight

on the ben franklin close, you just totally sold your case with a lot of things that i hadn't factored in that were actually in better -- in terms of easing that were better than we thought. have a great weekend we've got to go. we've got about ten seconds. thanks, jim. final check on the markets today. bitcoin is now below 17,000. everything is down triple witching. but it's friday. make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" is next good friday morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk on the street." i am david faber he is jim cramer carl has the morning off we are looking down thr after yesterday's significant decline in all of the averages two days now after the fed chair spoke at his press conference. not quite but -- >> no. >> -- continued reaction