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tv   Tech Check  CNBC  December 16, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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can do on wall street. once facebook or meta started tightening the belt, that is the invogue trend on wall street net netflix was down 9%. and on the higher rates of growth >> that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street." thanks to sara you'll see here later. "tech check" starts right now. >> good morning. and welcome to "tech check." i'm julia boorstin stocks off of the lows of the morning after the s&p 500 and the nasdaq see their worst day in two months. there is at least one bright spot this morning, adobe it leads the s&p 500 after reporting an earnings beat this past quarter we'll see jon's interview in a few minutes. and later, two more top picks for wall street. why investors should be bullish
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about microsoft and airbnb in 2023 first, let's turn to the markets. the nasdaq in the red again, after yesterday's 3% drop. that brings total losses for the year for more than 30%, with more rate hikes on the horizon how should investors navigate the sector joining us is bmo chief strategist thanks for being with us today let's start with your big picture perspective and all of the macro factors in play. what are you watching? >> the fed painted a hard landing. that's rallying the markets. the that was difficult for the markets to digest. we'll see something more akin to a soft landing and we expect there's going to be a correction in some areas. some estimate cuts to come in
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the next quarter or two. we think those stabilize and we're on the path to a soft landing. when we're thinking about the divergence and the market expectations, it's stark between the people who think there's going to be a hard landing and subscribe to the fed's projections and those who think the markets and the economy can stabilize going forward. >> why are you so optimistic about a soft landing and how do you see the tech sector playing through that? >> we think the underpinnings of a soft landing are on a stable labor market growth has slowed down, the labor market remains healthy and spending, despite the retail sales numbers that were soft for one month, overall spending remains healthy, as well we think the elements are in place for a soft landing, even though we're going to correct in certain areas. and what does that mean for the tech sector? we still want to look for areas of opportunity, as we get estimate cuts and there's some
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inventory directions over the next few months and a quarter or two, we think these present buying opportunities rather than a spiral downward that will lead to a more severe outcome with think there's a correction that's happening in terms of an inventory and slower growth, but we see those as opportunities coming up. >> i just got off of a conversation with ryan of adobe. and that stock is doing so well this morning one would expect would be weak in this environment, given what we are seeing in digital advertising. but they were strong does that say something, anything about subscription models overall and enterprise software or is this just adobe doing particularly well? >> that's hard to parse out.
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adobe is doing well, executing on its business plan kudos for presenting a strong quarter here overall, this points to some divergences that are happening in the macro environment and spending overall there's companies that are doing quite well we saw that recently in oracle, as well. and cisco, broadcom. part of it is end markets and part is about execution, as well i do think that, if we take the picture that we're seeing, yes, some areas are struggling. but it's not an environment and expectation where the economy looks like it's going to sink and all ships will go down with it >> i would love to hear your thoughts about the semiconductor inventory correction and how this is going to be changing things this quarter. it's so interesting looking a year ago, to the negative and in terms of the positive of resolving some of the supply
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chain issues >> we still think there's a way to go with the inventory correction i think the question, and some end markets have signaled much deeper corrections some that are tied to consumer goods. there's probably some areas and in some of the stronger markets, such as automotive, industrial, data centers, that may announce some softness going forward. but again, we still think those are buying opportunities we don't think that's going to persist for multiple quarters. we think it's a correction that is already under way -- well under way in some areas. and it will be relatively mild in other areas and if we -- if our thesis that plays out over the year, stabilization and the economy by mid year, second, third quarter, we think probably we see the trough and that correction late in the first quarter >> what is too cheap is it semiconductors if your thesis is correct and
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the landing is soft, what's being priced now as if the landing is not going to be so soft >> i think what we're looking for is opportunities that arise over the next few months or quarter or two as the cuts happen and the market overall and stocks overall, a lot is fairly pr priced we've come down, versus where we are today and a year ago there's a lot that's priced in in terms of a slowdown and retrenchment to slower growth. if we look across the landscape right now, the big distinction is going to be what happens when the next round of cuts come? and where the opportunities present themselves so, i wouldn't say anything right now is screaming too cheap. you have some areas that are stable and i think stocks like adobe point to that, that really provide a nice stability going
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forward. but other areas have seen a lot of cuts and could see a big rebound if the next round of cuts really is the bottom. >> just to ask about one more comparison with a year ago period, what you are anticipating in terms of holiday sales. are they going to be soft? not just e-tailers, retailers and the advertising market and it could indicate how much of a downturn we could cecing consumer spending going forward. what is your outlook there >> holiday sales are going to be on the soft side they started off strong in october. we think that has an impact. but we don't think the holiday sales on the season is really the big tell for what 2023 looks like we think 2023 provides stabilization. this year has been a continued ratcheting down of growth expectations we think the economy stabilizes. the markets stabilize. and as companies readjust to the
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modest growth environment, we start to reaccelerate profit growth, as well. >> well, stabilization and growth in the second half of the year for next year yung-yu, thank you for joining us with that outlook >> thank you let's see if that carries out to microsoft citi out with a new note, naming the stock their large pick and bullish on mango dp. and the analyst behind that call co-head of software, tyler radke. let's start with microsoft why that one, given the big acquisition overhang and uncertainty that's got to deal with and some exposure to the consumer market does the diversification outweigh all that >> yeah, good morning. thanks for having me i think on microsoft, clearly, it's a megacap company a lot of different businesses. you have some consumer but the crown jewel is the enterprise business.
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it's azure, office 365 that's the grand that drives the profitability. it's been a tough year for microsoft. you've seen azure growth misemiss expectations the p.c. market is a 40% decline in windows oem revenue this quarter. as you head into next year, not only do the compares get easier, but they are talking about raising price internationally to offset some of the currency moves. that is a tailwind you are seeing currencies start to reverse a bit, internationally. i think you add that together. the easing coms. we think this is a double-digit grower through the downturn. you know, i think in terms of act activision, that is an unknown but on a relative business, you
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look at the enterprise business, and that will be driving the earns power over the next three to five years. we think that's a defensive place to be. >> i'm more curious about your calls on mongo dp and snowflake. earnings were down 150 a share and now at 199 but it's richly valued, now? why is now a time when investors can get into this name given what we don't know about '23 >> yeah. your point, there's a lot of uncertainty about 2023 the things that we do know is that during a downturn, data volumes are growing. you might see headcount redestructions like you're seeing across the tech industry. you're seeing salesforce that have seat-based models but data investments are inherently higher roi through a good economic time or bad economic time. and i think, you know, you look
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across the board, whether it was mongodb or oracle. you're seeing good strength across the board you're seeing companies continuing to invest and modernizing the data layer to modernize applications, to make the businesses more efficient. and so, we are actually preferring names in this environment, that are more exposed to data infrastructure rather than seat-based models. we think that's a more defensive place to be in this environment. >> tyler, just a couple weeks ago, we heard from snowflake's cfo, talking about the q4 outlook. and weaker consumption patterns that raised a lot of concerns when the stock plummeted some of the stocks have been on a rollercoaster. what's your outlook in terms of that stock in particular are they being conservative? what do we hear from them during this quarter >> yeah. if you go back to last quarter, to your point, the q3 results
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and the q4 outlook was disappointing. they guided for the following year i don't think investors were expecting them to do that. and the stock began to recover, once they did that you look at where they're going to grow next year, between 40% and 50%, impressive growth rates with good profitability. 23%, free cash flow margin that's greater than salesforce will do. and snowflake is growing faster on a smaller scale i think for snowflake, the distinguisher here, is you have a lot of large customers that are more traditional industries. such as large banks, manufacturers, oil companies, that are really starting now just to ramp up consumption. they've got no regularity frameworks you're seeing the traditional industries ramp up the cloud spending while there's headwinds out
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there on i.t. budgets, there's some pocket strength we think mongo and snowflake can be set apart next year >> all right like a bold call tyler, thank you tyler radke.dobe is on the other side of the break. "tech check" is just getting started. ♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward.
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right after the break, you see the uptick of adobe going up other cloud names getting crushed this year. could it spell more mna. wee okg 'rloinforward to that and shantanu narayen is next more care for your cashmere. more power for your workout gear. this is smarter sensing and dispensing. fully optimized cleaning, no more guessing. getting the best out of everything that goes in. ♪♪ this is smarter cleaning. this is ge profile.
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adobe shares up almost 4% this morning off the highs, on the heels of better-than-expected prescription growth and solid guidance the revenue is up 10% year or year last hour i spoke with the ceotn and he is bullish on 2023.
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>> given the strength that we sawburg the quarter, we integrated the targets as we think about it and more relate relevant celebrating the anniversary, the stronger companies will get stronger. it's not for lack of opportunity. it's not for a lack of talent in the company. we have great technology platforms that we're building. a massive ecosystem. we're going to do great, if it's a tough economic or not. i think the focus on profitability, is something that investors have heightened a little more, as well through this period. as you can see, one of the amazing things was, despite foreign exchange and the strengthening of the dollar being a headwind for every business, we exceeded the e.p.s.
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targets we provided at the beginning of last year we tune the strategy based on what it is at this point, we look at the massive opportunity and say let's continue to focus on delivering great value to our customers. >> you said on the call that you see that moving at the pace expected there's a lot of questions about the regulatory gauntlet you have to run through with the microsoft activision blizzard getting challenged how long are you prepared to wait for that to go through? and are you doing things to make sure it doesn't become an overhanging distraction? >> the good news is, when you and i last spoke, and we announced the acquisition of figma, there were two questions. the question first was what does
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that mean for adobe's core business and you pointed out, what does this mean in the regulatory approval if it doesn't go through? we've demonstrated that does well this is a great business for us, in product design, in what we can do for collaborative creativity and the emerging space where creativity and productivity are coming together. we've seen a marked difference how the financial community is getting excited. the process is proceeding a pace we are engaging with the doj and with the e.u we're confident. we will continue to work the issues with all of the
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regulatory approval bodies >> one remarkable thing about this quarter to mention. and then, an outstanding question the remarkable thing, net new digital media recuring rev is up $576 million year or year. that's above the 550 high end of the guide that adobe gave. even in this environment, where digital advertising is constrained, they continue to do that and the question i asked was, how much does that get challenged in '23? is that a lagging indicator? will there be churn? and the ability that the product is being used and the funnels for increased use is going to mitigate that. adobe celebrating more than a strong quarter narayen looked at where he sees the future >> it's a blessing in my life
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that i got the opportunity to work with two legends in the computer industry. things i learned from them is build technology that inspires and makes an impact. my first product that i worked on, was in design and transformed the publishing industry the platforms that are durable the other theme for us is always about recognizing that great ideas come from everywhere in the company. and if you can create a culture where people think they can do their best work and grow, that is at the end of the day, a significant predictor to success. >> part of the reason in bangalore this morning, morning here, evening there. meeting with adobe's team. shantanu has been with the
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company for 25 years i asked how long is he going to stick around he says he is still excited to tackle the problems. he doesn't look like he is on his way anywhere anytime soon. >> there's so many questions i have for you after your chat with him one is about figma assuming that deal does go through and there's still the regulatory handles assuming it does go through. i'm curious how he sees the next 20 years or the next 5 years of adobe playing out, in light of that acquisition does that indicate a new focus or direction will they be interested in more of those types of acquisitions to expand? >> i think t's interesting shantanu came to adobe we've as part of an acquisition itself. he is trying to articulate productivity and creativcreativy and figma bringing more productivity in adobe's suite.
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that's not entirely far afield he brought a digital marketing creativity that turned this into an enterprise company when it was a niche creativity company that's what the vision is. adobe with xd didn't succeed in this area without figma. he is trying to make the argument, our core business is fine, figma or no figma. we think we can get it done. >> and to hear him talk about the creativity plus productivity, the idea that adobe sees itself as a essential software tool. and to hear your comments about the churn and the idea if they are essential, they are driving productivity, they are not going to see customers drop them in the new tougher economic environment. curious for the environment around the content space, that sees so much growth.
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maybe we see less growth going pa forward. >> his is that there's a transformation space where people are creating digital assets they are keyed in closer than they have been in the past, what the customer needs in bringing updates that will keep that churn down next year will be a testament. we saw it making an argument for smb. they made the argument that small and medium businesses need the infrastructure to run in bad times, just as much, if not more than in good '23 will be the test of this theory this is a strong q4 and end of the fiscal year to make that case >> it will be a test we see adobe shares up 3.5%. thank you for bringing that
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fantastic interview with us. we have kate rooney with a news update. >> here's your cnbc news update at this hour goldman sachs is planning to cut up to 8% of its workforce, as it adjusts to a weaker outlook. sources tell cnbc, staff redestructions will be across the board. but the consumer unit may be hit the hardest. more evidence that the u.s. economy is slowing s&p's global index of manufacturing and service sectors fell more than expected. the new reading leads to a 1.5% decline in q4 gdp. winnebago is one of the few strzok stocks rising. the rvmaker has given up gains of more than 4%. it's now 1% in the red and global coal use is set to hit a new record for the first time in nine years, thanks to robust demand in emerging
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asian economies. the energy agency says coal will be the largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions with tech's huge turn lower, more and more companies are turning into prime acquisition targets. we've seen a boom in take private deals in the software space over the last year and months telebravo was $8 million as valuations continue to fall. where might the next deal be joining us now, battery venture's general partner. battery ventures was an investor in kuoppa. welcome. is it the space of the companies between $1 billion and 10 billion in market cap? >> glad to be back
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>> i think it depends upon whether you're a public or a private company first. if you're a public company, you see the market every day, an impact on the shareholders production and you look at kuoppa, into the billion dollars of revenue and we're not an investor anymore. the goal from 10 million to $1 billion, and generate 100 million in cash flow every year and to make an acquisition and offer it eight-times revenue, is a bit of a head scratcher. you look at what the impact is on employee morale when you see a draw down of morale. they can combine and unlook a lot more doing so. you play the pros and the cons
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of going alone or taking the equity buyout and explore the pros and cons. it made sense for them to go forward with that. the investor, looking outside in, it makes you wonder why they offer when the ten-year average is that 10x modules. >> look at what the past ten years have been like in the market and we're in a period nothing like that. he said that from his perspective, he got every penny off the table, for existing investors. isn't this a case of something we'll see back in the public markets in a couple years anyway it doesn't seem like this is the argument that this was broken and not working correctly and not going to require a lot of eggheads to fix. it's that the market isn't feeling some of this stuff at this size right now, right
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the sales was closer to 9x and currently at 5x. it's anybody's guess if the interest rate will put us back on the ten-year average and regress next year or three years from now there could be some near-term pain and it depends on how much staying power you have, before you consider the exit. it depends on how much staying power you have in this market. and how long you want to wait it out before the market regresses. >> darmish, it sounds like your outlook is predicated on this expectation that we'll see a greater increase in infra infrastructure spending moving into the cloud in light of that conversation and some of the conversations earlier this hour, about adobe's results and concerns of the economy going into next year, how do you see that shifting spend play out and which companies may be worst
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positioned for this and pushed to sell? especially private companies that may not have access to capital as they did a year ago >> that's right. let's separate the private and public companies on public companies when you have a meaningful revenue scale and profitability, i tend to be bullish on a three-year to five-year horizon for cloud spending if you look at it, we just released the report on the cloud. we see amazon, google, microsoft, collectively, at $160 billion of revenue, growing 25%, 30%. that's only 20% of the legacy spending you look at cloud companies. we covered them earlier today that are indexed through the same trends. and you see 26 companies with more than $1 billion of revenue in the last three years, compared to seven a decade ago if you look at the overall
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environment, it feels like cloud in infrastructure spending should be robust. and the leaders of each of the markets should benefit we have companies like procorp and smartsheet on check-on they are targeting vertical industry needs and arguing there's a digital transformation that continues no matter what the macro situation. and the valuations have taken huge hits. even though they are profitable and they have head evaluations, they also have heady growth. >> you make the point that the index through more resilient sectors like manufacturing, energy, financial services they are still doing well. and you talk about adobe
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benefitting from digital transformation some sectors in the market, are benefiti software companies. it does beg the question, if you are a billion-dollar revenue business that has potential to go to $5 billion or $10 billion, over the next three to five years, do you worry about the multiples that are dictated about interest rates or do you focus on the market opportunity and grow it to a revenue stream and as variables in the next three years, you unlock value in revenue growth and expansion it does make you wonder why jump into it now? >> it does i guess some of the companies might think i have the option of doing it on my terms now or if we end up with a further downtrend in the markets in '23,
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i might have to do it on an activist investors' terms. one cloud name that's outperformed this year, box. despite the downturn, the cloud storage stock is up this year to date, as that company expands its enterprise aconlyodn frtial tay we'll be back after this break de found in the name itself. rent - a - car? you don't want a friend. you want the friend. you don't want a job. you want the job. the is always over a. that's why we don't offer a car. we offer the car. ( ♪♪ ) sixt. rent the car.
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it's time like a gut check on meta. the company getting a boost thanks to an upgrade from jpmorgan raising the price target to 50 a share, from 115. the cost discipline and comparcom comparing valuation, and shares are up 31% are they hearing something is this like fed speak are they hearing something from zuck zuckerberg people think he is going to stop spending on the metaverse. but i don't think he said that >> i knew you were going to bring up the metaverse you're a skeptic this note and some other more bullish commentary that we've heard about, meta recently, all about this cost discipline and what that translates into is not spending as much on the metaverse right now.
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reprioritizing and preprioritizing on the revenue generating businesses and generating new revenue from the likes of things like reels is he backing away from the bets >> i don't remember if he said he was doing that or if he people just red ad into things said it seemed like he cut people, maybe from the core business, so he could continue funding the metaverse in 2023. maybe i saw that happening >> i heard him say he was going to be less aggressive in that regard because he is focused on the areas making money i'm sure we'll hear more in the next quarterly reports i'd love to interview mark zuckerberg consider that an open inv invitation twitter is suspending accounts of several journalists that cover the social platform and its owner, elon musk those reporters in "the new york times," and "washington post," and cnn, and an account that used public flight data to share
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the location of musk's private plane. musk says criticizing me all day long is fine but doxxing my real-time location and endangering my families is not. and the same rules apply to journalists as everyone else seven day suspensions for doxxing some time away from twitter is good for the soul some call out musk who was a staunch promoter of free speech on the platform, prior to owning the company. you think the journalists are doxxing or giving away the personal information, et cetera? >> i don't think it's that simple not all of the journalists were linking to something that showed where his jet was. they were talking about the story, tweeting about the story in some cases. so, it doesn't seem like elon musk is telling the truth about why these journalists did. or he's having some -- you
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tweeted something out that was a link to something that linked to something that i don't like. it was a very coherent argument. people have questions about whether he is creating a different set of rules whether he feels uncomfortable but it's okay for other people to feel uncomfortable in the name of free speech. he has explaining to do here >> it's interesting to think about this for advertising i cover advertising. all of the brands said they were going to pause spending on the platform are they coming back it doesn't seem like they are coming back yet. and we heard from rashad robinson, saying we had called on advertisers to pause on spending he is not being consistent and fair and there's been an uptick of hate speech on the platform. >> do advertisers care that much about this advertisers like attention
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inconsistency of enforcement of news rules and rules in general, doesn't seem to be grounds for all advertisers backing away >> advertisers don't want to be associated with hate speech. if there's an uptick in hate speech, that would be a reason to pause they want to make sure that things are working they are pulling back on ad spending overall and this is all an excuse to pause spending on twitter to figure out what's working or what's not maybe they're taking that as an opportunity. >> okay. it's not just adobe and meta leading the way. chinese consumer tech names, including jd.com, pinduoduo and alibaba.
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♪ let's turn now to another topic. take a look at airbnb. the best online travel stock for 2023, calling it a global leader in vacation rentals with an outperform rating. the analyst behind that call joins us now cowen managing director. kevin, thanks for joining us today. i understand that airbnb is the leader in vacation rentals how concerned are you about the macro overhang and recession affecting all travel next year >> the macro chrisk is very rea.
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and you can say that about almost any stock that being said, if we look past that, airbnb is the leader in an over $200 billion market and they've been resilient if you look at the numbers, they will be over 70% larger or 70% s they're going to be about 70% larger this year than they were pre-pandemic compared today a hotel industry that's about maybe 5 to 10% bigger than the u.s. and europe. and that's a clear long-term trend. when we look at our survey data, travelers are telling us they only want to stay in vacation rentals more in the future, so it's not something we see perversing, so that's how we get comfortable with it. >> there's no doubt the pandemic was really the tipping point to convert people who had never rented through airbnb before to rent through this platform talk about some questions such as inventory how did they address the inventory concerns that weigh
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down the stock recently? >> absolutely. so we think some of the controversies surrounding airbnb right now are overblown. if you look at inventory and listings, they actually accelerated up 15% year over year in the third quarter. its a very healthy network that continues to be consumer driven, so people want to stay in these rentals, and, you know, that's really driving the entire trend. and we think there's runway there. if you look at the u.s. alone there are over 8 million second homes, the vast majority of which are not yet on airbnb. so we actually think it's a healthy environment. >> kevin, how are you monitoring the geopolitical and energy risk in europe? is that a driver for european real estate owners to list more on airbnb, or is there a level of disruption at which that becomes a hurdle for would-be
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travelers to certain places in europe, and would-be landlords, airbnb renters to actually make their places available >> yeah, so that's certainly -- it's one element of the macro risk, but ultimately it's going to come back to travel demand. as of right now people are continuing to travel the numbers have been good there have been pockets of weakness you've heard the airlines talking about business travel plateauing a little bit, but as long as consumers are traveling in europe and continue to do that, the supply is going to be there. we don't really see the energy specific risk for airbnb that being said, it is part of that bigger macro risk that we can't ignore >> what about returns to the office i've heard so much about hybrid, flexible remote work allowed people to take long weekends, work remotely and work in an
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airbnb and how that supported that trend do you think the return to the office we're seeing more and more companies focus on is going to impact growth potential >> we saw in 2022 was a great year for urban and retail recovery when you think about how well airbnb has done, this goes beyond the pandemic. they've been taking share beyond the time they were founded this is really consumer driven people love these things, vacation rental type properties and tends to provide a really good value so return to the office that's something that's, you know, been reflected in the numbers we've already seen and clearly airbnb continues to do well >> fascinating times stock is down nearly 2% today. >> thanks for having me. >> did you miss part of the show or maybe you want to relive it well, don't forget to follow and subscribe to tech checks
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avatar, the way of water hit theaters last night matching $17 million into its opening weekend. julia? >> well, back in 2009 james cameron's avatar grossed $2.9 billion. that made it the highest grossing movie of all-time there's a lot riding on the sequel which reportedly cost $250 million to make plus much more for marketing but director james cameron indicated it might have cost a lot more when he told gj the film would be to be the third or fourth highest grossing film in history in order to break even. that means topping star wars the force awakens which grossed $2.7 billion in fourth place of all-time avatar was seen as a key piece of fox's entertainment assets disney acquired and also disney
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banked big on it with its investment in the avatar area at disney world it faces little competition for this type of film until the new ant man comes out in february, and it has secured a release in china which of course is a big market and a market that yielded high returns for the first avatar on the down side it has been 13 years since the original film so less familiarity with the franchise and runs over 3 hours long, so that limits the number of showings theaters can have every day. plus, james cameron, he developed this filmch he hoped people would watch it in 3-d and 3-d hasn't really taken off since that first avatar. it's being watched not just by disney but the theater trains that still struggled at the box office that's still below 30% -- and it would indicate audiences are still eager to go back and the success of top gun maverick
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wasn't just a one off. >> this will be a top one i think, julia buzz the first avatar it was supposed to be this technological revolution in 3-d which didn't have much legs and you've got to be out of your teens to remember seeing this. we'll see. >> one more on salesforce. stock was above 300 a share last november now at 127, down another 2% today, 20 just this month. julia, whether we're looking at salesforce or avatar, there's a question of whether things that succeeded in the past can continue to. that's just going to be a theme for these last couple weeks of the year >> certainly, john, looking at some of the big movers today we see tesla down 5%. some of the game makers down and disney down speaking of the avatar launch here >> and a call back to the
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beginning of show. if you want to watch my full interview that exclusive you can check it out on tech check's twitter and linkedin pages as we head towards noon tesla is down almost 5%, adobe still up, but just up 3% julia, it's been an interesting week next week should be interesting, too. the half time report starts now. john, thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to the half time report. front and center this hour the rough week for stocks and what the final ten trading days of the year might bring for your money. joining me for the hour jason snipe, shannon, joe, and steve weiss. we've been down all morning long but now the dow is down. s&p is down 60, 1.5% as well you get the pictur

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