bigger player over there, so how do they handle that increase of exports, raw materials and other things >> muchmore a global air freight story, as opposed to domestic deliver yes, sir we get with u.p.s that will do it for "overtime" today "fast money" starts right now. right now on "fast," stunted growth one of our traders set to reveal the name and how low it could fall the latest bit of bad news to hit the struggling dow is there anything bob iger can do to stop the slide they cease the crypto push failed, and the new twitter twist.

we start off with the big growth trade conundrum. all the pieces seem to be falling into place, first interest rates have been dropping sharply, the used on ten-year treasuries down 75 basis points traditionally lower rates are good for growth stocks and then the dollar, and inflation, signs emerging that pricing pressures are abating. all of that should give a booth to the growth trade, but not this time. the ark innovations hitting an all-time low apple dropping more than a per and a half today it is now just 2% from june lows one of our traders has a barn. let's go to kris rone and his charts. >> i think it's such a great

leap when we think about what's happened over the last week, they've been so bullish, over the last two months, you have the dollar down, but the big weights unable to respond here i think what is notable, the street still hasn't changed its opinion of the stock yes there's 45 analysts who cover apple. the stock is down 30% or 40% from the highs you still have 37 of 45 analysts and a price target of $173 everyone is city a buy on the name you know, when you consider the longer-term picture of what the chart is telling us, here's the last two years, this looks like one big rolling top for us. i thought breaking below that 135 level, which has been support all year, is a very important development today, you know, when you take a bit of a

longer step back, look at the last four, five years here, when it comes to the apple name, think 12/31/19, before covid, the stoke was $75. so many of these big tech names have simply returned to where they were pre-covid. that's 75 to 100 for apple if we look bigger pictures, they big tech names are still too big. this is the combined weight of the six largest issues on 12/31/21, at the start of this year they're still that% of the s&p i think this ultimately goes lower. i like 100 >> 100 all right. kris, make your way back to the desk >> i like how he finished that off. when they sell what they love,

when they sell the real rock of gibraltar names. that's apple they have haven't done that yet. amazon is at the covid level, apple is not, nowhere near it. apple was 50-something -- i know you had said it before, but you're talking about pre-covid levels i'm talking about the covid low was in the high 50s for apple. if that were the case, where would the market be? >> much lower. >> much lower, but if you're looking when apple wag at this level, or if it goes to 100, the s&p was 3250, 3300, everyone on the street that's negative has the targets in for the s&p >> that's how you get there. when you look at the top of the

market, rates down, softer inflation, softer growth, that should have been the perfect cocktail for the names to work when the market doesn't respond that's a really important message. no, but i understand what you're saying , so i -- and we're going to see some negatives i do want to push back a little on how much money they have made over the last several years, that's one thing the business has changed somewhat it was pretty marginal so to me that seems like a higher multiple.

i'm not asking sarcastically they may not matter at all. >> i think when we look at the picture, the so it's still trading at a premium, with all the china exposure you should by trading at a discount so i think there's inconvenient messages like that. just in terms of their exposure, or just to the computer there, where would you stand here on apple? it does makes sense, if we believe that has to join in on

this fun >> yeah, i agree it has to be a part of the situation, in terms of, especially what i would expect you know, i think involvedors are diagnose and thousand dollars cell phones could be challenged in the next year, if consumers continue to get softer and softer that said at the i do recognize why -- in the face of better indicators like inflation and a dollar.

>> a post-2008 phenomenon. you know, when you talk about the big weights, microsoft is largely escaped much of the selling here i keep going back to the idea that so i would put them in that camp here as well. >> apple is included, and they have in the top three or four, they have an above 20% rating in the etfs so when you start -- >> you mean above 20% of the holding? >> okay, got it. so what happens when you go ahead that when people try to sell their apple sometimes it mirrors one, mirrors the other.

>> well, there's two parts to this if we yew the experience of the 2000-2001-2002 market, there were -- then when you cycle turned, they underperformed on the way up sew let's just say, bear market is over. that doesn't mean we're going back to appear -- i think the important point, thinking about you can be right wired we return to the same leadership if the environment is completely different, is inflation is higher, all of these things have changed. so why should there be a reversion to that norm there has been a big move in

google down, and i think the valuation is nowhere near what it was, and i think the balance sheet is extraordinary so -- maybe it doesn't get the super premium that it got, but i still think it deserves a premium. the moat there is huge to me it's compelling. >> so maybe tech isn't overall the leader, but some tech stocks are still great. what do you think? >> yeah, absolutely. i agree. i think the consumer-driven tech names were what led us out of the pandemic, and i don't think they're going to be the best places to be in 2023 i would rather have smaller

niche names, appeared the stuff they sell -- netflix, i love it, but don't need it. >> here's the problem i have with new leadership. where does it come from? let me finish, let me finish. >> all right. >> so if you have, as i said, with the etfs, they all own the top six names, so when more and more people are passively investing. when they passively invest, they have to buy the six names in tech they're not buying the esoteric low-cap or market-cap names. where does it come from? >> i think behaviorally, it's a lot easier for the large managers to says i'll buy brits toll meyers, that's a logical move i think the charts have reflected that, but if you look at the ten largest stocks at the end of every decade, they're not

the ten largest going forward. >> when are the next ten stocks going forward? >> don't we find it curious how well the industrials act through all this those used to be a much larger weight in the s&p. if we're looking to find candidates, let's at least put that on the list >> i love that >> it's been a decent place to hide, and that big pharma, that makes sense to me as well. more on where the markets are heading into year end is lori calvacino how do you view market leadership in terms of people are hoping the big-tech cap bounces back.

>> i agree with a lot of what was just said. areas like semiconductor, some of the tech heart ware names are interesting, but i don't view consumer-driven internet as the growth story of yesterday. i don't think that's the growth story in the market going forward. i know the valuations are comp compelling, but you adopt want to just think of the growth stocks yesterday, but the growth stocks of tomorrow i did view sort of kris' comment very interesting whether it's the reshoring thesis, things happening on the esg front, just this idea of the reinvigoration of the old economy is something that a lot of investors i speak with are talking about. so you want to think about -- >> so when you think about the industrials, do you imagine a scenario where they get an above-market multiple?

>> that hasn't been a way for i don't know how long. >> when sectors transition, we obvious see a rerating it's a bit north of neutral. it's looking a bit expensive if we do a relative p/e and do a z-score. i don't think you even necessarily need at this point to move into a new paradigm. i think there's a bit of room just on the traditional framework. >> i want to talk about some of the things you are talking about with clients that are out of consensus. you say clients are excited about european equities on the dollar weakness. do you think the dollar continues its trend here >> what's fascinating about the european discussion and the weaker dollar discussion, that's what i heard about two weeks ago. traipsing all through europe

once i got back to north america, the excitement about european equities was much les profound, let's just put it that way. what i did try to point out, is if you look at the recent dollar weakness, you're ooh you're going to get more of it. it's actually still going to be up, so i do feel like maybe it's a bit early. but i think it's interesting to me as well that people are just ready for new things to talk about. all people wanted to talk about in europe is the move in europe, the move in the dollar and reopening in china there was just a sense of relief of maybe there can be some new things next year. >> you're still sticking by the call you made in july? >> we are. we think there's still room to

run. we've been watching the valuations very, very closely. that's when we upgraded to overweight in july the average is a little over 14. the small caps are already trading like we've had a bigger spike in jobless claims, and manufacturing is trading down around 40. so it's really pulled forward kind of the recessionary impulse that i think the s&p 500 is still trying to digest. >> lori, thanks, great to see you. >> thanks for having me. lori calvasina julie beale, i can see you're happy about what she said about small caps >> a girl after my heart

earnings have held up relatively well what i think is always interesting is to look back to the pandemic and see how smaller businessed responded they were thoughtful while i wouldn't jump in with both feet, i think you can be selective. to me what people will be attracted to through 2023 is earnings durability, and feeling confident that the forecasts that are out there are the real forecasts or what's achievable >> that's a small-cap chart to you, kris? >> it's made no progress since about july we've been treading water. i do think there's a desire for these things to work we hear it in our travels and with clients -- but what was europe's biggest headwind the last ten years is they didn't have apple, microsoft, google. they didn't have the big

weights. that could be an asset here. i'm very intrigued on the idea that european industrials, materials, those are the big constituents in that part of the world emerges with more durable leadership it's hard to reconcile that with a german recession or the likes, but there are some clues. >> we saw a huge run-up that you wrote. >> yes, auf wiedersehen. tim always says you makes the most money when things go from terrible to just bad >> but the underperformance for small caps versus large caps, i think, has been extended 15 years. but here and there, a bit of a blip what i found interesting was her dollar call. inverse relationship to oil. if a dollar comes in, oil goes

higher i had my $65 bet on oil for year end. i got close, but between the u.s. refilling the spr, and between the dollar issues, i think i might have to tap out on that coming up, the way of water, partial it's downstream. disney shares getting hit. is there any magic left in the name that's ahead. and what the -- we'll return back in two. what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions

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welcome back to "fast money. disney, the stock tumbling almost 5%, now up 35% in the last five session. it's just two cents from the lowers level since march 2014, a disappointing weekend for "avatar the way of water." is there any magic left here in

the kingdom? >> if i look at a chart, which is one at the pandemic low if you look at all entertainment and everything under that category, i think they did $28 billion. do we think that's the case that's -- >> we're not there i don't see this as a negative all of the returns in the box office, i think it was the second best box office they had, with the exception of maybe "the avengers" from disney marvel studios. >> does this speak to the idea when you're in the epicenter, like they consumers, disney was in covid, you don't come back as the leader

the consumer was at the epicenter, but how lethargic -- plus i don't think it's a reminder that things don't happen -- and -- >> you're just vulnerable there, and to apply the apple analogy, when you look, 85% of them still have a buy in the stock. >> if you think back, things aren't going to be the same post-pandemic. they just aren't disney dsaid -- the appear tide

for going to sinemas, it really isn't there. that guy's job is to distribute movies into theaters, and he's saying the appetite isn't there on the 20 million miss that they need to make to break evening. this cannot be all of that i think whens look at the disney here versus the disney of the pandemic, that's when streaming was, you know, the next holy grail. it turned out to be an expensive endeavor, that turned out difficult to do, very expensive, and interest rates went up money was no longer free disney did the fox deal, it has a lot of debt now.

>> this is the pandemic low, where no one was ever thought to go on space mountain ever again, no one was going to be in a cryoor doing anything. this seems a bit discounted to me it could be. >> i think it's a question of understanding what fundamental is disney should be benefiting from a china reopening. it's going to be like it was here on activities this should benefit from that, and it should benefit from any incremental reopening. what we're seeing in the stock action is just a lot of high

expectations around bob iger and his ability to execute >> it's the lowest it's been in 15 years it's hard to position for a big swing in a bad chart, and i think that's the issue we have that's with pay pap, amazon, home depot if you said to pick one word for the stocks. >> dead money. there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> announcer: bitcoin blues. the opportunity for grayscale to convert its crypto trust into an

etf is getting smaller every day. what the company plans to do and what it means for the industry. plus, consumer cutbacks. inflation may be starting to moderate this holiday, even shoppers are putting on the brakes. "fast money" is back right after this another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network.

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collapse, it feels like the dreams are fading with it. >> you published a yearend letter today to my investors i did share in the event we exhaust all of our legal and judicial processes, challenging this s.e.c. denial, we would then consider doing a tender offer for a portion of the shares it doesn't mean we necessarily will, but i want investors to be prepared >> what could this mean for grayscale? he made it clear this could happen in the case of exhausting all these different avenues, it's a possibility just for a 20% tender, which i think the idea is put the news

out there, hope for a floor in the stock or a change in sentiment. get it converted to an etf is, by far, the much, much bigger deal so dcg, which owns almost 10%, right? they're tied in with genesis -- >> they owe money to genesis -- >> i feel like there's still more collapse to come. i don't know if there's any mathematical floor that one needs to have in the discounts i mean, i think there's been front running of the expectation, and that's why it's here, but i can't help but think there are more things to come. that's trading half of book value right now, but i don't own it, and i covered it way, way,

way too long >> it does feel like it's an effort to prop of the this group, empire, by doing this to offer a possible floor to dcg. kris, what is your take? >> let's look at the fact pattern here when you started to lose some of the companies one by one by one, i think we know where this is going to end i would just point out two things coinbase has hit its lows. you mentioned today they were trading 50 cents so, put the facts together.

>> but coinbase does have cash and some time. >> yeah. that's really unfortunate. >> i don't know. ark invest, so this whole thing is very intertwined, julie, into all the things that can collapse around it. >> it's sort of like "the real housewives of crypto." she's connected to her and this. and it's hard to follow along if you're just a regular investor like me. i continue to believe that the problem with bitcoin continues to be the case for it is just not clear. without that it's hard to see corporations getting enthusiastics on holding it on balance sheets

and without that kind of proper ability to transact, i just don't see the point for these exchanges to really exist. i continue to believe this is a very investable class, and i think there's lots of interesting things that you can do for us, it's long-term investors, no, thank you >> how can we quantify, though, the ftx issue that was skatable with ftx, with people investing into they things now with coinbase or gbtc, if you don't understand it, you're not going to invest in it. now, i think the marginal buyer is not there >> also, just think how the language of this has changed now it's just called crypto.

i'm not sure what the use case of this here, and i think the behavioral inference in the name change is notable. coming up, health of wealth. how high-end consumers are cutting back as inflation fears linger one pharma name is seeing a huge move higher more when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets today. stocks closing in the red to kick off the weeks, as hopes of a yearend rally begin to dwindle. the dow dropped more than 160 points the nasdaq leading the losses, down nearly 1.5% energy the only sector in the green today. meantime, as we enter the final stretch of the holiday season, we're looking for signs how much lingering inflation is weighs on the consumers. cnbc's latest millionaire survey

suggests that even the lux youry shopper is in fact feeling the pinch this year. robert frank has the latest. >> melissa, this is a group that's supposed to be spending, but we get more cost-cutting, fewer restaurant deals even million nair are cutting back in fact 80% of american million snares say they plan to spend less younger millionaires, they are cutting the most virtually all the millennial million nair we surveyed are planning to spend lest boomers about 78% plan to spend less more than half of millionaires are more price conscious when they're shopping, maybe why we see more six-figure earners shopping at walmart these days a third of millions are cutting

back on restaurant, 28% cutting back on eliminating major purchases. most millionaires say inflation will be here for at least a year or more. they do have faith in the fed, 58% saying they are confident or very confident in the fed's ability to manage inflation. >> robert, this isn't your first roddy. you have done the survey in the past i wonder if you noticed the highest correlation in terms of high-end consumers feeling the pinch. is it the stock market the main driver what is it, in your view >> it's the mood, melissa. the stock market is the fears of recession. most wealthy investors either are a top executive or own a business or run a business so most companies right now, even though their numbers may look strong, next year they're looking at reducing investments, cutting costs, cutting the labor

force, and ahmet talks they hear are of recession next year so much of the spending by wealthy is purely discretionary. it's trips, fancy restaurants, expensive luxury things. that spending, as soon as the mood darken, just shuts off like a light switch i think that's what we could see early next year. >> robert, thanks so much. great to see you. it's not just the high end lenders that the larger serve lower-end consumers, so how worried should we be about the state of the u.s. consumer. >> there's a couple things going on capital one is sort of somewhat of a read-through of credit quality, right not just overall spend so i think we'll see credit quality worsen it's been extraordinarily good due to the stimulus, so i think that's going to happen

i'm not quite as pessimistic i always believe the consumer is there at some level, some way. maybe it's tjx, but it's not great. i have to admit that it is not great. i don't think it's going to be a big problem for the major banks, but i'm a little concerned, to be honest. >> julie, how are you feeling about the consumer >> i think nike will be an interesting one, because it has such a wide net these cast in terms of different consumers i think it's interesting so much of what the u.s. economy is, is built on confidence. the confidence that businesses have to make and spend, and the confidence that consumers have to buy things for themselves, and i think both sides are softening pretty materially. even if there's not quite a softness in the economy we expect on the labor market front, i think the confidence

could lead to softness in investment such that we actually -- you know, the recession becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. >> even if you have a job, your neighbor may by laid off >> you don't want to be seen as the person running around going on trips, bragging about whatever it is but if you look at the con consumer,selves so much money thrown at the consumer it is problem is, is this what the fed wants to cause so thechd to -- what they said to do is stop, inflation but its nature, so they said to kill off those chasing it i'm not sure who this hurts oar

how it hurts, but effectively to julie's point, it's perception is reality let's talk about the market, when you think about the bear market rallies this year, march, this summer, what do they have in problem discretionary has been a temporary -- that is not what you get in a new bull market you get dominant leadership from the consumer i think if they're going to flip the call, it is has to be led by consumer discretionary stocks. i think the read-through of capital one and an alou is an important message. coming up, with you pharma stock more than tripling, but the options move on friday that really caught -- plus musk asked, twitter answered, could the stepping down by a boon for

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soaring nearly 2 on% after announcing positive clinical results. one trader made a particularly timely bet on the stock ahead of the result mike khouw joins us now. >> we often talk about unusual trading, but we also need to talk about option prices the most expensive options at the end of last week were those of madrigal fpharmaceuticals. it closed out. meaning that they saw profits in the neighborhood of 5 million dollars, in just one trading day. >> not bad

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>> all right thanks for watching. see you back here moowtorr at 5:00 "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money and it ain't easy right now. my job is not just to entertain, teach you. so call me or twee me @jimcramer. they'r