wti is up 2.1% >> final jeopardy, in 1947, what kids were at a parade chanting something that became a perennial song and maybe we're seeing it in the dow today here comes santa claus, here comes santa claus. >> right down santa claus lane. >> we're seeing in the markets maybe it's a santa claus rally. >> we'll see right now it it's time for "squawk on the street. bye-bye. juror good wednesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla nike and fed ex will help. micron tonight packed agenda in washington today. our roadmap begins with better than feared. reports from fed ex and nike giving stocks a boost. >> plus tesla's tumble

musk claiming macro economic factors as the latest reason for the stock being down the nfl reportedly nearing a sunday ticket deal with google's youtube. >> let's start with the earnings news boosting futures today. nike with the quarterly beat raising its outlook. ceo john donohoe saying the inventory peak is behind us. fedex beat on the bottom line and vowing more aggressive cost cuts jim, the nike story is the big one. day's inventory at the four quarter low. >> this was incredible, beat every single line. i think people should focus for a second on china, where we thought the people would be down 13%, up 6%, big delta there. north america strong, 14 520 basis points sequential acceleration black friday, very strong. cyber very strong. we had yesterday, dave, when we

talked about matt lawson how he should buy it, a good call i think what really matters here is this, once you get inventories in line and you have the right product, a lebron shoe, you can make a ton of money. david, what i find most convincing about this, i think china is open for business >> yeah. >> i thought china was closed for business. >> i know. donohoe from mccall. the thing they've been focused on is the consumer in connection to nike, jordan and commerce brands obviously 11/11 holiday. you know, why have me repeat it when you can hear it from the man himself. john donohoe. >> the reason you do that is because .001% of our viewers actually did that. who knew that they'd have $10.6 billion in cash. this company got down to a level where people this is a true bear market this company got down to a level

where people said, you know what let's just lump them in with a lot of others and that is -- we're in a moment, is they're able to call these the fact is nike as a worldwide company is crushing it that transcends whatever we might hear from mester, okay >> by the way, this 12% gain on earnings according to bespoke would be the second highest up side earnings gap in 20 years. jim, there are a lot of people that argue the real template from corporate results will be fed ex meaning cost cutting ahead of the expected rough ride. >> that will be great. fed ex's quarter is about trying to make money on each piece of

product. fedex has been growth. we know they've been amazing they're never going to try to take out costs as much as they're going to try to grow rog, superman. >> you think he's unbelievable >> here's why. he's able to rationalize. >> it's a billion dollars off the original plan but the volumes are down so it shouldn't be that hard because they're not doing that much. >> what happens if the recession ends what they're doing is rationalizing the workforce. let's not rule it out by the way. ups has a teamsters negotiating. >> they do they do. i know we hear about it all the time from people close to fedex, don't we >> sometimes

that said, to put them into some perspective, they don't happen in one quarter they have reset earnings dramatically since june which has been reflective in the stock price. of that is, therefore, why it's up today. >> can i use an analogy? when jim farley came in he decided to go against the founder's initiative we're going to make cars where we can make money. there are a lot of issues. fedex very similar they're not going to pick up everybody's mail, they're going to take the mail that makes money. that was something carol tomay. >> i think he's doing the same thing. can you please stop talking about amazon and fedex they haven't been related to each other for years but fedex's vow is a worldwide network where they wouldspend

fortune sending you things, sending you a letter no, not anymore. by the way, the teamsters, i thought of them. >> you thought of what >> about the issues with ups. >> i will now fully attribute that concern to you and not to anybody else. >> i find out who gave you the nfl contract story, i'll blow them up. >> i didn't have the nfl contract story. >> you teased it. >> i did not what are you talking about >> the nfl contract story. >> the nfl contract. >> that's because it was in th wall street journal yesterday. what are you talking about i did have the musk story. >> oh, did you >> yeah. i got the two clown emoji back from the man himself. >> right now, i want to say i'm taking this stuff out of the running. >> for what? twitter ceo? >> yes the. >> okay. >> i didn't see you on the list of the odds makers. >> you think the people would put me on the list that list is phony that's the list that they put

out. >> if nominated would you not accept >> i would -- i'm -- i'm general sherman on this stuff. >> you are >> yes, i am who by the way in the end, he kind of went off the rails. >> i'm on page 670. >> you know. >> grant never did it. >> no. this is in terms of being a person who -- we're so off base. >> we are, but i think it's important for people to read history. we can talk about grant and sherman. >> great war hero. then became a little more -- >> you want to get back to your final thoughts on fedex? >> yeah, i do. >> they beat on express and ground. >> operating margins wereahead >> well, look. it's entirely possible that they built an incredible worldwide network where cost wasn't a factor tremendous video on the site about what fedex has done, david. the fact is a new person can come in and say, these routes don't work that's why this is the beginning of a move for fedex.

>> right >> it's an inexpensive stock, david. it's the beginning of the fedex movement. >> yup >> right >> let's move to the next one. the condescension from my left. >> that is not concondescension. >> take a listen >> i think if the main macro issue in the united states is really the ecommerce reset if you were to just follow along here, prior to the pandemic ecommerce represented 16% ever since it's been going down. we are 18, 19% right now it's still higher than 16 but not quite as high as since '22 that's the reset that's going on in the u.s. package business. >> as david said, cut over a billion in costs year to date. they plan on 3 plus next year.

>> i think jay powell ought to listen up or the critics of jay powell when i say anything good, i'm a co-con sp hf-con co-conspirator our labor issues, there are a lot of people who are, let's just say, surplus labor if i have to use a marxist term there's way too many people who were brought on everywhere because of the pandemic and they're being released but they're not being released out loud they're being released quietly by the end of the first quarter, want to see revisions from the federal reserve, we're having a lot of layoffs >> okay. i think you may well be right. terminations are going to increase why is that good we've never gone through a period of fed raising rates as rapidly as it has, right this is sort of unprecedented. >> it's good because if they would stop raising rates at the

pace that they're doing, then there's the possibility that a fedex business coming back they won't be need as many people dan, it's good because we have people, strategists, high level strategists who say, you know what, it's heads you lose, tails you lose. >> i agree i have those conversations all the time in fact, this morning terminations are increasing. people aren't going to be able to get liquidity out of their homes. psychology spreading from the ceos foreseeing a tough year next year. we've never raised rates this much it goes on and on. you say, yeah, terminations are going up next year's not looking so good. >> i'm trying to get a better analogy than goldilockss because i want to try to get away from like characters in, say, six flags and disney. >> you clearly don't have a problem with, say, the starbucks downgrade today? >> that i thought was just

ludicrous. >> they're talking about -- >> gratuitous. >> weaker consumer. >> 6% sales increase in nike in china, when everybody thought nobody was doing business in china. china they're going to open up a huge number of starbucks regardless of whether the flu sweeps through the country and then -- and it's had a nice run. you know what, david, if you could have a 6% increase in sneakers, i think that when omicron blows through china, which we know it can blow through -- >> it's happening right now. >> like the measles. >> it's coming it's coming through. it's going through >> well, what's going to happen is starbucks by the first quarter, this will pass and they are going to open all the stores and they're going to have an equal number of stores i don't know if you've been to the new starbucks in the united states david, it's amazing. they have terrible throughput.

the analyst himself is ill advised in that, ill advised. >> to be fair, they make mcdonald's, bloomin a play. >> like it takes anything to have mcdonalds go to 300 i'm taking my target to 300. >> reuters has a piece that germany has sent the first biontec to china maybe we get a full mrna approval. >> we know they've been able to reverse engineer what pfizer has but i've always been waiting for the german exception, which would make it so that they could have a million vaccines in two months >> right yeah the. >> he said right and yeah twice. >> i respect the music when i hear the muse six -- . >> i can't hear the music.

>> even when you can, you don't. >> we can cover wells. >> we're going to get to tesla. >> we haven't covered what >> wells >> don't do that to us again. >> i heard about this and i wasn't here. >> it's 3 1/2. it's 4, it's 5. >> it's 5.5. >> we'll get to tesla this morning and where elon musk is placing blame for the slide in those shares as they closed yesterday, 137.66 down 60 plus percent. there's futures. we're down after a break ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi.

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all right. we're going to start with tesla shares here. they look like they may be up in the pre-market although you never know this after sinking another 8%. new 52-week low. the stock of course as you see just over the last three months has lost more than half of its value. shocking yesterday elon musk got into it with a few people. you know, here's one he's trying to explain why tesla shares are tanking. that was in response to what he heard from tesla investor ross gerber who said, hey, it's time for a shakeup of the company given your focus on twitter. musk coming back with, hey, do you read your textbooks? rates go up, goes down, maybe you want to figure that out. and that's true, to a certain

extent growth is slowing there are continued questions about the last sale of $3.5 billion worth of stock he didn't explain it it wasn't clear it was to help support twitter. is there another reason be more taxes to be paid in the state of california. we can speculate all we want we don't know. that has left the market to a certain extent a little more concerned. you know, all these incredibly wealthy people march to a certain amount of their stock because it's a way not to pay taxes but finance their lifestyle. then, jim, there was what i reported yesterday which we would have seen as a positive. he was actively looking to replace somebody as ceo. >> did he -- >> yeah, of course that's why i reported it not a big surprise later in the night after he did tweet at me two smiling faces, he said, i will resign as soon

as i find someone foolish enough to take the job. he's looking. >> that was funny. >> he's told people that's a four-month project it's two months in maybe it goes another couple of months maybe he finds somebody in the next two months. we'll see. but tesla, you know, the momentum here, jim, is only one way. >> which way is that >> that would be down. >> you know why? you know what's not being talked about? >> tell me people talking about this tesla, twitter. how about ford how about the fact tesla is beginning be to lose shares snr their share is down 5.91%? how about the fact ford share is up -- has increased 1.88 to 5.5. how about the fact hyundai has come up a little bit i think the tesla share is being called into question i think that tesla has peaked in terms of its share in ev in this

country. >> in this country it's much different overseas >>absolutely but i think in this country, got to start thinking about this you know, look, now i'm an illusionist to mr. musk. i think we have to start talking about the notion of tesla as -- now 70% is still gray. nike, we don't care about anybody else i'm saying it's something to watch particularly because ford's goal is to have substantially more number of electric 150 -- they can't make the f-150s because the grid is so bad that people are buying the f-150. if the grid goes down, they have to light their house up. >> that coupled with the fact that there is a perception that he is damaging the brand to a certain extent by so many of his comments >> shenanigans >> whatever you want to call them you saw that story from

evercore. >> 300 to 200. >> 40% of sales are in california and they attack the very audience for purchases of teslas. >> california is where the grid is the most inefficient. california is where you need an f-150 more than anywhere else. i wish i had it. i had the ceo of the most important -- >> most important utility tonight. >> yeah? >> that would be pg&e? >> yeah. i have to tell you, the r reliability says the f-150 is what you have to have. the not generac. so many sales of generac but she is one of the reasons and she's doing a fantastic job at it. you have to understand, if this grid in this country has failed and the only answer to that is to buy -- try to get an f-150. try to get a bronco. >> united rentals is going to ring the bell and there's an

f-150 parked outside. >> is there? they have -- you guys have great numbers. you have great numbers your numbers are better than caterpillar. good for you >> why not >> they'll ring the bell in a minute we'll get cramer's mad dash and countdown to the bell. one last look at the futures as the bulls try to string back-to-back gains together.

as we said at the open, futures being supported by the two big stories, nike and fedex. best reaction to earnings by nike pre-market in a couple of decades.

opening bell in a couple of minutes and don't forget you can catch us anytime anywhere just listen and follow ""squawk on the street" the opening bell" podcast. squawk on th street" the opening bell" podcast. squawk on the street" the opening bell" podcast. "squawk on the street

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>> announcer: "the opening bell" is brought to you by nuveen. let's get to mad dash here "opening bell" a few minutes from now apple. >> no light up to selling anything faang i don't think it's going to light up apple is about the worst chart in the book. apple is finished. i do believe apple could, as it has, pre-announce before january. can't get enough product we know it from costco they couldn't get enough product but jim suva is not deterred and he has six reasons why he thinks it's going to do well. apple doing well in indy iphone revenues will not see negative year over year beyond december new. service revenue should grow because the fx headwinds are developing, new. forget that. le that doesn't matter

regulatory risk versus headline risk and then a bonus option apple car which also doesn't matter. what suva has done is say those who want to trade apple think they can get out now and get in after the announcement, that may not happen i'm only basing that on what costco said. this piece says don't give up the ship the chartists are saying, again, this is the single worst chart they've ever seen and you know that they're -- in the end the chartists, they're way up there with jay powell. >> you know how closely i follow the chartists. a double head and shoulder reversal >> oh, my god a triple top and double head and shoulder. >> golden cross. we haven't seen that in ages. >> i don't want to see it. can't even look at it. >> it's called -- don't avert your eyes. >> it's the omen the omen

>> i'm not kidding ragan. it's ragan head spinning with green vomit that's apple. >> does that mean you have high hopes say forex ample micron tonight? >> no. samsung, we don't box that we like south korea. everybody else was supposed to be blocked south rohkorea has been a staunh ally >> that was a good day >> all right >> let's get to the opening bell

and the cnbc exchange. celebrating 25 years a vehicle technology company celebrating its listing. >> look at that. numbers about spacs. you know with the spac, united managed. how have you done on that one? $3.78. it's down 74% from the december 20 -- let's use $10. it's down 62%. he got the phoenix suns. you're down 62% and everybody is happy. >> everybody is happy. >> everybody is happy. down 62% for a spac? that's not so bad, right >> no. that's actually better than our spac -- post-spac index i believe which is around 29 cents on the dollar. >> well, i think it's important to point out that there's only

been a couple of successful spacs but they keep coming everything is an opportunity. >> a couple of things on spacs there are some that have not done deals they've raised money because rates have actually moved up appreciably, the money is in trust. it's in treasuries they're actually earning a real return so these are going to be liquidated because they're unable to find a deal. there are going to be spacs that return you not just 10 bucks but 10.50, 11, $12. >> for savings >> you as a spac investor will benefit that they never did a deal. >> did they put them into paper? >> do they put them into your paper? >> yes yes. >> genius. >> david, explain something to me i'm looking at the chart of getty. >> getty images. >> gety. legitimate company now they've come public.

there's a good chart for you they're 10, like you said. now maybe they were in the 1-year maybe they were in the 30-day. then it spikes to 35 that was obviously a good thing to get in there. >> yes. >> then it seems to have gone down a little. >> again, like most spac although doing better than the post spac index. >> if you talk about from 35 to 5 it's not -- >> this is, by the way, a done deal i want to make it clear for people, what i'm talking about are spacs that have raised the money, have the money in treasuries, are generating a return and will likely have to liquidate at some point because they were unable to find a deal. as carl said, they're in poor savings. some of them are trading well below the actual lick we days value because they have generated real returns. >> let's get that list of the spe

spacs that put in. >> now you're getting a 4, 5 1/2% return. >> there you go. that's worthy of some of that sound. >> the animation >> yes >> they come public almost every day. we can treat them as fine. as fine. >> but we start off talking about the phoenix suns and we should move on to sports -- stay in sports because the bigger news is the one we mentioned at the top of the hour. this directv, sunday ticket seems likely to be going to google, to youtube in particular the journal and others have reported the story i think cnbc.com as well 2.5 billion a year, well above 1.5 billion directv is spending. obviously alphabet, apple, amazon all have now participated in various sports. apple pulled out of -- >> well, okay. >> apple has baseball. amazon as we know has thursday night football youtube, this is an interesting foray for them. >> yes, it is. >> there are a lot of other

questions of what it means, for paramount, warner brothers, zaslav's already said nba on tnt. we'll see. >> zazaslav, when i had lunch wh him, he said it's great. na nathan's, wow. let's go back to google. >> okay. >> the reason why google could pay this much, they know how to make it work in a lot of different ways they can do gambling they can do -- they understand fantasy. they understand the adjacenciad. they understand monday night football had the best rating since 2011 they understand there are great announcers for sale who can do a great job. there are ways to lever the actual weight not unlike what they've done with peyton. >> all the teams that have their youtube channels, all the people who subscribe to those. >> you could have a series -- you could have any game and you

could have -- you could have sean payton calling the new orleans game you could have unbelievable heroes calling and just -- to note that franco hair k o'hara . you could have jaworski calling the game >> right. >> when you speak to them, they're really smart they're as smart as the directv people -- >> were not. >> you are ann a.mbassador of goodwill. >> directv has fewer and fewer subscribers over which to amortize the cost. >> they were on a permanent intellectual vacation. you can stay up and watch -- >> i like that one >> permanent intellectual vacation. >> sports rights and the nfl keeps going up by the way, it's the only real group of -- sport where you can

actually own a team and maybe generate a real return as an owner at this point. >> right. >> given sports rights a weak union frankly for the players versus baseball. >> willing to sell out anybody >> yeah. the it does raise that question. what's paramount going to do cbs. espn this wells fargo note saying we think they're going to spin espn sports rights to the extent they keep comingup, the nfl is the key property, that is the question >> it's about promoting your lineup it's about the commercials about being able to show what you have david, have you read -- >> unscripted. >> have you read unscripted? is. >> no. >> about the red -- >> you keep asking me if i've read a book that isn't out because jim stewart gave you a copy >> you've got the galleys. >> let me just say it's re revelatory you don't feel as confident about paramount as you might

otherwise. >> okay. >> apparently jack ryan. but i just think if you want to put google on the map, youtube on the map, you buy this it's so under marketed because they understand more than anybody that the fourth quarter is -- any other sport if you are getting blown out, who the hell cares. fourth quarter in football, fantasy, 55 million people >> youtube growth was down last quarter. >> that changes. >> it was at one point trending as much as 35 billion. >> that changes with this package. >> obviously a value that could approach that of netflix conceivably. >> more hours streamed on youtube than netflix i think it's the largest. >> netflix is down the most based on their ad tier accounted for 9%. >> disappointing disappointing. it's faang if it's faang, it has to go down if it's faang, forget it even diamondback energy is not

doing that well. >> before we end our conversation on sports, quick thank you to stevie cohn, thanks are carlos carrea -- >> that's gratuitous. >> the man will spend whatever it takes he'll smile all the way. he's going to have the largest payroll in the history of baseball by i don't even know. 150 million above anything else. he's going to pay a luxury tax above some teams that they spend on all players. >> everyone benefits. >> would he'll all love him for it. >> remember when the yankees were a rich team >> yes he's like, you're not going to screw with me. i've got more money than all of you. >> speak to him about it. >> phillies? >> we have a lot of money. >> carlos carrea failed his physical, i'll at that i can him. >> how did you do against the phillies >> brutal shutdown. >> dallas against philadelphia does it matter

defense have to shuttle. i think this weekend is going to be a weekend where the ratings will justify whatever alphabet wants to spend. >> the fact that we've spent so much time talking about it does show it's the -- >> let's move on to carnival how was carnival. >> point72 has to make up for all the losses he'll have on the mets. >> maybe they'll do as well as citadel. up 32% or de shaw giving money back did you see that interesting wall street journal story. talked about it. all the algorithms doing well. >> help me >> he's right about returning some funds and citadel's year, flashy new headquarters planned for the city. >> that's why the average investor has a few thousand dollars to spend is so attune to what they say. we'll really be able to get into one of those funds. >> i know it goes against your mantra and i apologize but it's

a fact. >> ups is up despite that whole thing you plan >> while we're talking we did get carnival, jim. essentially in line. ebitda misses, they guide below. >> disney has cruises. and were how is chapek with the cruise business? >> i don't know. >> krufr been on a chapek cruise >> where does that go? s. >> cruise to nowhere >> okay. >> yes >> that's all you've got on cruises for me. >> you covered disney enough yesterday? >> oh, yeah. we covered disney enough we mentioned everybody other than pluto >> i think we're good on disney. >> but there is a look at travel in terms of research today, jim, what did we miss another downgraded carvana. >> yeah, carvana is starting to get down to levels that i think it's going to have to switch to

a david coverage >> upping boeing by 10 bucks. >> you can't beat that last night -- boeing is going higher because there's a scarcity of plane makers in that interview that we have with calhoun, phil lebeau is great. oil as long as it stays above 70, according to my guru rusty brazil, the dividends will stay, the large dividends, they will stay i think that matters a lot of people talking about how target is going to miss the quarter. that's worth watching. >> i've seen some charts on target foot traffic in some decline. >> yeah. >> palantir, today, jim, that's -- last couple weeks have been rough wolff cuts says sell to $5 stock. >> inconsistent earnings stream. general mills, david pet food wasn't as good as people thought. >> general mills, we didn't cover it as much as we might have yesterday it was down on those numbers though. >> pet food is competitive

been an area -- >> it's rebounding ever so slightly >> smucker's got pet food and smucker's is on fire sjm. >> of the names we sort of focused on earlier, fedex up nike tesla turned around. it's not down again. down another 1%. >> more selling? >> clearly >> from the man? the man is selling again >> no, we don't know who's pressuring the stock we know obviously more sellers than buyers but whether mr. musk will sell more stock is a question he hasn't explained what the last sale was for, so to speak you mention that because he has in the past given us some sense, whether it was for taxes or whether it was for twitter. >> and some of the research this week said we haven't gotten it, we're all done for now tweet he did say on twitter spaces, the company was on course for 3

billion negative cash flow that's why i've spent the last five weeks cutting costs like crazy. by the way, as santoli pointed out today, jim, today is the 2-year anniversary of tesla being added to the s&p >> four quarters i'm waiting for that from palo alto >> they can have what? >> four quarters of gap earnings they need to have. >> to get it added to the s&p? >> yeah. yeah look, we -- there's this state, one of the smallest states in the union, delaware. somehow musk, who is not from america, did not realize i think that the chancery is not somebody you can just make fun of, right? like you don't tweet chancery you're a bunch of jokers and somehow they respect -- >> yeah. no chancellor mccormick made it very clear. >> mccormick -- >> she's the real deal. >> i've got to say, i think he

did not understand his lawyers did not advise them. he just felt also that breattt'a rollover. >> all may be very true. obviously tesla stock has sold off by some 35 plus percent. >> getting denial, a lot of people benefits. that was a good way to make money. >> he's cutting costs significantly. and it's musk so you can't say that twitter won't at some point become a very successful company. >> he has to appoint there's certain people jeff sonnenfeld suggested john legere would be good. >> you've suggested that as well >> i've heard so many different names as to who musk -- >> minus one. >> the ones i've called, they're not interested and i just don't know. i don't think he knows, elon he's been -- again, i reported this yesterday he's been asking people for some ideas. he's been talking to some people, but no yeses.

>> how about -- >> or no definite names so, yeah, we can throw out a million names but that's not going to mean anything. >> i saw them do that earlier. the problem with throwing out a million names is that i think that working for this man may be more difficult than people -- >> that -- that very well -- >> he's committed to staying there, being in charge of the technology. >> right and he's still the owner. >> like larry ellison. yet -- >> although in this case -- >> on the board of disney. >> elon owns all of it as opposed to ellison is a very significant figure of oracle but it is a very large public company. >> can you imagine ellison run being -- >> with a board of directors and everything else. this is not that. >> you need someone who is significantly tough. someone who just would not -- really not take any of what musk gives them and there are not

many people that -- >> no, although the number two -- the lady at spacex, which again is such an incredible success, has been with him for many, many years >> but how long have we been looking for an heir apparent at tesla? >> twitter situation is not great. he's done great work at tesla but -- like i said, i just revealed the share gain and loss it's a parlor game it's a parlor game to guess who might take it. i'm not playing it. >> okay. >> i'm not playing that game >> all right. >> hanging on to 38.50 dow is at 310. let's get to bob pisani. >> we're finally getting a little mini rally. four days down and potentially two days up. seven to one advancing the declining stocks most importantly, something that's acted terribly is acting better today i talk often be about risk on, risk off stuff consumer discretionary

banks just awful month bournsing. retail awful month bouncing. arc innovation awful month bouncing as well these sectors are down 10% or more so it's nice to see a little bit. it's early to talk about a santa claus rally given what's happened in the last few weeks butthat's certainly very encouraging. if you have to look at it, nike is the key story today expectations very low on the three metrics that everybody cared about, we had good news. on inventory, holidays and china. inventory, peak inventory is behind us. on holiday sales, on black friday, holiday momentum has accelerated. on china, the first positive year over year in five quarters, up 6%. all three metrics better than expected earnings, what's number one and number two on the s&p today? nike and fed ex are number one and number two today here. so that's very important to see them, nike and fedex, on the up

side i just want to note also, cruise lines also doing a little bit better ccl had a weaker guide but their november and december bookings were quite strong overall here put that up, that earnings chart. the question is what side of this whole earnings debate are you on remember, earnings have been coming down for the fourth quarter. they've been negative for a couple of weeks. they were positive a few weeks ago. the numbers are coming down. the question is what does 2023 look like. let's call 2023 estimates for the first quarter, which is where you get any kind of visibility, is basically flat to slightly up. 1.9% look where it was october 1st, september 24 we've dropped 5 percentage points in the past 10 weeks or so the the numbers are coming down. i'm sure this will be flat to down in january. the whole debate evolves to what side of the recession debate are you on if you are on a softish landing

side of the recessionary debate, 2023 earnings flat down 10%. this is where a lot of strategists already are in down 5% range or so right now they're expected -- the analysts are expecting up about 4% if you are in the hardish landing camp you can have earnings recession down 10 to 20%. that tends to be where we are with a lot of the people who are a little more pessimistic. micron is going to be a big key here we had a serious air cut in earnings projections from micron it's down 30% in the second half of the year. same story as with what we saw today with nike. very low expectations. we'll see if they can beat that far. carl, back to you. >> thank you very much, bob pisani as we go to break, let's check bonds see how treasuries are fairing. yields down pretty much across the board. the 2-year right around 4.2. as for equities, 38.54

dow is up 340. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco.

pretty healthy gain on the dow, up 320. one of the components showing green arrows activist accumulates a 3% stake pushing the company to monetize some of its real estate. obviously a tough run so far this year, but up 11%. we'll take a quick break more "squawk on the street" in a moment what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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drones and i think the people have to realize this would be a major game-changer against the russians tim schneider, one of the great professors at yale is saying, listen, the russians are here to stay the patriot missiles, what they need, to protect children's hospitals, other than president nixon who bombed a children's hospital on christmas day, i've never seen a level of genocide being committed like this against people >> putin doubling down with his comments >> the outrageousness. the patriot will help the situation. >> jim, we'll see you tonight. we've got data on the other isng exti homes and more. don't go away.

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"puss in boots" has been nominated for best animated movie of the year. ha! ha! and it takes the "shrek" franchise to exciting new places. i am on my last life. it will strike a chord with movie goers of all ages. when you only have one life, that's what makes it special. rated pg. only in theaters. welcome back to "squawk on the street." rick santelli live on the cme hq we're expecting breaking news. existing home sales for november and consumer confidence from the conference board for december. condense expecting the number 101, a big beat. 108.3, 108.3 that is the best number going all the way back to april when

it was 108.6, and it's the third highest number of 2022 if we look at the present situation, expecting a number right around 146 and change. also better, 147.2, 147.2, best number since september finally, expectations, what lies ahead. 82.4 versus 75.4 in the rear view mirror. that is the highest level of the year, going back to december of last year when we were at 95.4 as i said, we also have november existing home sales. for that we aim east and go diana olick. g diana. >> existing home sales fell to 7.7%, that according to the national association of realtors that's lower than expectations for 4.17 million sales down 35.4% year over year. the tenth straight month of

declines this is based on closings, so contracts likely signed in september and october when mortgage rates last peaked before coming down slightly last month. at the end of november there were 1.1 million more homes for sale, an increase of 2.7% from november of last year. at the current sales pace, that's still a low 3.3 month supply low supply has prices higher than a year ago, up 3.5% to a median of $370,700 those gains are shrinking fast, well off the double digits we were seeing a year earlier the longest running streak of price gains since the realtors began tracking this. sales decreased in all regions, but fell hardest in the west, down 45% from a year ago mortgage rates have come down slightly we'll see if the new year brings slightly lower rates and potentially any kind of bounce. >> diana olick. good wednesday morning welcome to another hour of

squooet. i'm carl quintanilla, morgan brennan has the morning off. dow is up almost 350, s&p 3850 as well. nike and fedex adding to optimism about corporate results. >> without a doubt we're 30 minutes in the trading session. three movers we're keeping an eye on we'll sftart etsy, up over 5%. a bullish call on the stock late yesterday, but doesn't appear to be having an effect today. it sees etsy and amazon as the stocks to own. check out the cruises lines getting a boost after carnival posted a smaller than expected quarterly loss we'll end with starbucks that got a downgrade over jeffries it's now a hold. it had been a buy. citing a potential pullback in consumer discretionary spending. shares are down fractionally

nike raising its revenue forecast, stock enjoying the best reaction to earnings in about 20 years joining us this morning, oppenheimer's brian nagel has a buy rating inventory is the lead the morning. does it deserve to be? >> this was an absolutely fantastic report from nike what it shows is, and this is why the stock is bouncing so significantly today, despite the macro concerns, despite the challenges out there, nike is very much in control still very strong, very solid consumer demand for nike's products across its brands, across geographies nike is successfully working down these excess inventories with little if any disruption to the core business. very solid report from the company last night. >> china up six. what were you looking for? >> down basically. the return to positive growth in

china is a positive surprise and a good one in comments management on the conference call regarding china suggests this is just the beginning, the brand remains very strong in china we expect as these disruptions abate, hopefully soon, you'll see stronger sales growth from nike in china. >> what about digital? i think they grew 34%. is there still a great opportunity for them how did that compare to what you were expecting >> that was above our expectations as well look, the more important point is nike is now -- we write a lot of this to our clients nike is a technology company, a digitally driven brand that digital backbone that the company has built out over the last several years, is one of the key factors to allow nike to navigate this backdrop more successfully they know consumers much better, they know where to clear

product. >> to what percent of sales over time does that become in your opinion? you talk about that direct connection give me some more sense, brian, as to what that enables them to do that they weren't able to do previously before they had that direct connection with their customer >> the questions are kind of in reverse order. they know their customers better now. nike knows who is buying what when when they want to move a product, they have to know how to speak to those customers. they've gotten significantly smarter with how they manage wholesale. another company i follow and like a lot, dick's sporting goods, academy sports, two high-quality retailers which are stronger partners with nike. the digital connection are allowing them to use those parties to clear product as well as far as where this penetration goes, it wouldn't surprise me

over time. if you see digital, 70% of nike sales. something significantly higher than today that's still going to be driven. i just want to make the point. the physical touch points are important whether they're in nike stores, wholesale partners. you're seeing more business being done digitally >> we will talk more in the coming year ability the potential tale wind if, in fact, dollar brings some relief to multinationals what are you modeling in terms of fx tailwind in the next year? >> in the near term fx is still a big -- for nike. it's a modeling challenge. it's something every analyst on wall street struggles with it's extraordinarily difficult to model this. even nike is saying basically the currency is a 700 basis point headwind to sales growth i think the real importance for

the stock, i don't think that's important. the market tends to look through this when we're evaluating the underlying health of nike, we look at currency neutral sales growth which in q2 tracked at 27%. that's a better underlying measure of health. financially, to the extent -- and i have absolutely no idea this is going to have, to the extent the dollar mod rates, normalizes, that would be positive for nike. >> certainly better than the alternative, at least if you're a corporate treasurer going into '23. brian, pretty fascinating story on your beat appreciate it very much. >> thank you very much appreciate it. happy holidays. let's turn to another big company that reported earnings after the bell, that's fedex those shares rallying not to the extent you saw with nike frank holland has more on the quarter. >> shares moving higher as investors trying to figure out if we're seeing the bottom or the beginning of fedex's issues when it comes to volume.

eps beat moving the stock higher that could be seen as a sign that the ceo's cost cutting plan is working at the same time, a revenue miss on lowered expectations and weak forward guidance again on lowered expectations is raising questions about the freight environment, especially in china. major revenue driver for the company's signature express air delivery service >> volumes declined across all segments, primarily express, down low double digits as such, revenue was down 3% driven by a decline at fedex express which was partially upset by growth at fedex rate and fedex ground. >> fedex clearly maintaining express pricing power while the volume down 8%

freight, fedex operates in primarily industrial trucking. elf fant in the room continues to be the cost cutting plan. saying they plan to cut a total of $3.7 billion with 2.5 billion in the current quarter and fourth quarter, that includes christmas and the lunar new year they announced the drive time implementation plan, details in the first half of 2023. >> we had a discussion this morning about the reaction and just how it's all relative i wonder how you compare the tone around this particular quarter to the one we got a few months ago >> certainly more upbeat i think analysts and investors are asking the question where is this extra billion in savings you found and why wasn't that already taken off the network before or at least earlier in june fedex issued very optimistic targets for fiscal 2025 if you had this much inefficiency in the network, why weren't you able to identify this before we saw this ominous

warning about a global recession. >> to that point, frank, we should remind people, they have reset earnings dramatically lower since june, haven't they >> i had to mention that twice it was an eps miss on lower expectations, a revenue miss on lower expectations the bright side in all this are the margin beat. it's hard to figure out. it's important to note, as we talk about this right now, fedex splits the holiday quarter season, this first one includes christmas and lunar year fedex benefited from that and maybe saw pricing power from all that pull forward. what happens going forward in january they're also announcing a price hike of about 7% so when you're hearing soft demand and lower volumes, how do you also raise prices? how does that work for the next two quarters >> a great question. we'll see if we get an answer. frank, thank you as we head to break, here is

our roadmap for the rest of the hour it includes sam bankman-fried. he is heading to the united states to face criminal charges. we'll bring you the latest nyny president will join us. u.s. ipos at a 32-year low goldman's jan had yas will give us his analysis. don'exctt pe hikes in '23.

bankman-fried expected to head back to u.s. soil for arraignment in manhattan mckenzie gonzalez has the details. >> at 11:00 a.m. eastern sam bankman-fried heads to a hearing in the bahamas where he's expected to surrender his expedition rights. bankman-fried already filed his extradition paperwork and would fly back to the u.s. after the third hearing of the week wraps up once he's back on u.s. foil he's likely going to a federal detention facility or straight to a manhattan court an ex-senior government trial attorney telling me that usually the first step is to go to a detention center for processing, but they may skip that step to expedite things and head right to court for the initial hearing and arraignment before a federal

magistrate judge will he'll be read his rights and enter pleas to the eight criminal charges against him. his team will likely try to rush this because they won't want him spending time in prison if it can be avoided the only timing restriction is that the first hearing has to happen within 48 hours of his arrival to the u.s the big question is whether a judge will grant him bail or if he'll be remanded to a federal facility. >> that is the big question. is there any precedent that would indicate one way or the other, mackenzie. >> bankman-fried's legal team has been discussing a deal that involves a possibility for bail once he gets to new york his attorneys aren't commenting on that so far typically in white collar cases a defendant is detained only if they're a danger to the community or a flight risk usually a white collar defendant doesn't pose much of a flight risk because they either have

ties to the community or too much to lose by fleeing. bankman-fried is facing decades in prison. his ties are to a foreign jurisdiction, not new york and there's the billions of dollars of missing ftx customer money. >> one does think of liz beth holmes who was out for the entirety of her case nyse president lynn martin will join us we'll talk about ipo and even the spac market for 2023 even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started.

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- addressing climate change requires effort from all of us, now and for generations to come. - join dylan and me as we get personal about the environment and how we can each do our part. - watch our conversation on peacock. it has not been a good year for the listings market. ipo proceeds are down more than 90% this year. spac redemption rates are also fairly high. will we see an improvement in 2023 joining us is new york stock exchange president lynn martin nice to have you here. >> nice to be here. >> one would imagine it can't get much worse, can it >> a challenging year for the two metrics you just mentioned

we're have optimistic about 2023 the backlog has never been stronger the currency around being a publicly-traded company has never been stronger. you're seeing companies take a pause until the volatility in the market starts to subside. >> is there a world in which even with volatility next year you could see issuance pick up does it rely on maybe one big issue to happen and get the momentum going >> that's part of it i do think that irrespective of market conditions, there is always the ability for a company to come public, particularly those companies with strong balance sheets you saw the largest ipo of the year, core bridge, happen just around the corner, earlier this year, raised $1.7 billion in capital. we were incredibly proud to be their partner for their public market life. >> do you think there will be a pivot toward technology written ipos where they bring the most visibility and dollars to something that's more value

oriented, industrial oriented? >> i think what you're seeing is the market is very much valuing those companies with strong balance sheets, the companies that are some of the hallmarks of the new york stock exchange, the best governed companies, strong balance sheets, the companies in it for the long term and that think about the long term. >> how does the race between the nyse and the nasdaq evolve >> we're incredibly proud. executed three of the top five ipos in a very muted year, the largest companies, the most well-governed companies are going to choose the nyse for a variety of reasons, not just related to coming public, we have la differentiated market model, but our community and the platform we serve in the market, that's really what is resonating in terms of value. it's really why we've seen the best years since the turn of the century in terms of transfers to the new york stock exchange this year

>> one thing that i have a hard time believing will come back will be spac issuance. it felt as if that was a one-time bubble unless anything we've seen >> we believe in the spac model. i think there will be viewer spacs. you won't see record numbers that come out in 2020, 2021 come to market. i still think it's a very valid way for a company to go public. >> although, don't we need to see actually a lot of them liquidate because they were unable to find a deal before momentum in new issuance >> absolutely. that comes down to the glut of the market that happened and the glut of issuance that happened in spacs in 2020 and 2021. it wasn't a new venom no nah, it gained a lot more notoriety and focus in those two years because of the sheer number of spacs that came to market. >> i have a question about the

evolution of hybrid work here in the city,mta is going to start lightening their subway service on mondays and fridays because people tend co- come in in the middle of the week. are we seeing volumes reflect that >> i don't think you're seeing volumes in terkts of the market reflect that it's never been more vibrant than 11 wall, as i'm sure both of you have noticed. it gets a little loud, sometimes during your broadcast. we're thrilled at the amount of activity coming back to new york and new york city in general most companies embraced a version of a work-from-home, but i don't think you can underestimate the value of community and having people convene in person really brings, both from a strategy, both from a product development standpoint and importantly from a conversation standpoint. that is why you've seen record amounts of activity at nyse

because people really want to convene. they want to talk about uncertainty in markets they want to talk about geopolitical uncertainty that's how they're going to take their businesses forward. >> any big names we should hope for in terms of a brand name we think about coming public next year >> a lot of companies are in discussions with ourselves about when they come to market obviously i'm not at liberty to say who will be the first one to open the market although there's an awful lot of speculation out there. but we're really excited at the prospect of the companies who have already selected us, bringing them to the public markets. we think they'll get rewarded for coming to market. >> david and i have been here for lots of ipos, a lot of chinese names. you think any fissure between u.s./china bilateral relations will affect how the ethipo

pipelines? >> the compliant audits were successfully completed for all chinese companies, some of the largest companies on the new york stock exchange. so we're really optimistic about the future. >> you think you'll start to see chinese companies listing again? it seemed like every other day there was a chinese company. given the fissures he just mentioned -- >> i don't think you'll see the sheer amount i think you'll see the high quality names look to tap the public markets in the u.s. our markets are unparalleled in terms of their reach, in terms of the investor base, in terms of their transparency. they are a very attractive home in terms of raising capital. we are the center of the global economy in the u.s so that has not been lost, and i'm hopeful that because there has been a path forward about

audited financials and balancing that access to capital alongside the hallmarks of the u.s. market, investor protection, that we have a positive outcome. >> all right as we always say, we shall see happy holidays to you. >> happy holidays to you both. great to see you. coming up after the break this morning, we will talk the economic outlook for goldman's jan's hatzius. he said don't expect fed cuts in 2023 and maybe a few more hikes. we'll talk about it with him in a minute so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. to adapt in the changing world,

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welcome back ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy will head to washington, d.c. later today, first time he's left ukraine since the russian invasion ten months ago our kayla tausche has the lettest. >> reporter: the surprise visit by ukraine's president confirmed just days ago and kept under wraps for security reasons. he'll arrive on the white house

south lawn this afternoon and visit with the president for the first time since 2021, meet with the u.s. national security team and cabinet, hold a press conference and then this evening deliver a speech to a joint session of congress. house speaker nancy pelosi officially inviting president zelenskyy in a letter overnight, praising his leadership that's rallied the world and writing, quote, america and our allies have proudly answered your call, imposing devastating sanctions on putin and ensuring ukraine has the resources it needs to win this war it comes as congress is set to green light nearly $45 billion in new aid to ukraine, bringing the total to more than $100 billion, and raising questions about the viability of future aid under a new congress a senior administration official said future funding is expected to remain bipartisan and said the shared message today is targeted toward russia, not republicans. the u.s. plans to ended 2

billion in patriot missile defense systems, providing ukraine a with a new capability to defend against russian missiles and drones. russia's foreign ministry has said such a move would represent an escalation. the kremlin described the next phase of war as complicated. the u.s. suggested zelenskyy's travel outside the country should not be seen as a sign that the end of the war is near. david. >> kayla, thank you. we are about an hour into trading. major indices is up nicely nike and fedex results perhaps helping a bit. nike has been quite strong however, there is still some conflict between the markets and the fed. let's turn to our senior economics reporter steve leisman for more. >> good morning, david the large gap in the outlined for the foonds rate between the fed and the market, you can partly explain it by differences on where each thinks inflation is going and how to look at where it is right now, with some thinking the fed is looking at

the fed is looking at the situation wrong and about to make a big mistake mike ek land of action economics tells us that our own view is that the fed hassing the ld from one view to another, from transitory the key to the market view is this, looking at relatively benign inflation on the basis of the past five months, in annualizing that to go forward, compared to the year over year rates compared to spikes a year ago. england did his five-month annualized calculations, the headline, 7% year over year. headline just 2.5% and darn near the fed's target on pce because that's going to be lower and the core is still high, but a lot closer there, 4.7% on a five-month annualized basis. fed chair powell is going to be aware of these calculations. he continues to base that hawk kish outlook on a subset of the

inflation data the service sector ex-housing. that's more than half of the calculation, driven by rising wages and a tight labor market he does not see going away >> expectation really that the services inflation will not move down so quickly so we'll have to stay at it, may have to raise rates higher that's why we're writing down those high rates and expecting they'll remain high for a time >> the fed has written down 5.12% for the funds next year. futures market is below 440 for the january '24 contract some of that likely a recession built into forecast which would lead the fed to reverse course and cut. in that view the fed could be about to fix its transitory mistake with another mistake of raising too far and holding for too long. >> plenty of risk, steve, given

how much fluidity there is in the global market. let's bring in goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius. to receive's point, you're not looking for cuts in the coming year >> we're not looking for cuts. our expectation or baseline is that the economy continues to grow and the adjustment process in the labor market continues but without a recession. i think the hurdle for them to court in a non-recessionary environment with inflation still above the target, i think it's going to be relatively high. certainly have an inflation forecast that clearly comes down, we're below the fomc medians, but i do think whether the economy goes into recession or not makes a big difference, and the consensus view is there will be a recession next year. >> you've done reports on how

below consensus you are on that front, right >> on recession risk, that's right. the consensus is sort of 60, 65% probability. we're at 35% by is not a loan number, but obviously still below 50 >> your number is a lot lower than that of the man who runs goldman sachs. i'm sure you've had interesting conversations with david solomon. i mention that, jan, because i'm curious how you do account for ceo confidence or lack thereof and if there is a way to do that obviously these decision makers do seem to be more in the camp of recession and perhaps are pulling back, in fact, creating that very outcome. >> consensus among ceos, but also households is relatively negative consumer confidence did pick up somewhat, at least in the conference board survey. the michigan numbers are also quite low. ceo confidence is low. clearly we're in a difficult

environment, still in the middle of a difficult adjustment process, so it's not surprising there are a lot of concerns and negative views the question is is it ultimately going to qualify as a recession in terms of whether the national bureau of economic research sees a significant and substantial decline in overall economic activity >> what do you identify then as the key things you're seeing that perhaps others who are obviously a bit more bearish on the outcome are viewing differently? >> i'd say two things in particular one, real household disposable income is now growing. it was falling sharply early in 2022 now it's growing, in part because of lower headline inflation which steve talked about. number two, there is, of course, a sizable drag from tighter financial conditions and tighter monetary policy. we think the lags are actually

relatively short financial conditions have already tightened substantially. the biggest impact of that maybe 1.5 to 2 percentage points of drag we think is occurring right now. as i look forward into 2023, even with additional hikes, we have an extra 75 basis points of hike in here, similar to the fed's forecast i think the drag from financial conditions will be smaller. >> so those who argue, oh, there's so much in the pipeline, just you wait, hasn't really hit us yet you think that's a fallacy >> we don't buy into that. if we look at the lags between monetary policy and financial conditions, those are very short. in fact, they're kind of negative because often markets anticipate what monetary policy is going to do then the lag between financial conditions and gdp growth, it's a couple quarters by our

estimates. that is a very important question. >> it is so your estimates versus others, again, what are they looking at or what are you seeing in terms of the data set, i guess, to base that on >> well, one of the points that i think economists kind of learn very early on is milton friedman's long and variable lags of monetary policy. he did say that. what i think people miss is he was talking about the level of activity the difference -- the lag between monetary policy moves and then the impact on the level of activity. that, of course, that takes quite a long time, maybe six quarters the impact on growth is actually relatively front loaded. we have our own models, but there are a lot of people that estimated this most models say that lag is on the shorter side. >> you talked about real incomes. is the notion of goods deflation while wages are sticky, does

that feed consumption? is that too much to hope for in 2023 >> i do think that we probably will get declining goods prices. we already have, of course, declining energy prices. gas prices have fallen substantially. we're now starting to see declines in durable goods prices on the back of the improvement in supply chains so we would expect goods deflation. i think service inflation is going to be slower to decelerate i would also expect a deceleration there we're already seeing clear signs in the housing market, in the rental housing market that hasn't yet fed through to the cpi measures, but that is very likely. >> so shelter catches up do you foresee negative payroll prints in the next 12 months >> in our forecast, there are no negative gdp numbers and no negative payroll prints. these things are goingto go largely hand in hand i think if gdp is still growing

at a 1% pace which is kind of forecast over the next few quarters, then payroll growth slows substantially further but still stays positive obviously month to month there's going to be more volatility around that. we don't have trend declines. >> wage inflation which our friend jim cramer would talk about being a key focus for powell >> for sure. there is a substantial amount of wage growth that is above the long-term sustainable pace we're still in the fives and i think it's going to come down because the labor market is gradually loosening. job openings are coming down quick rates are coming down all of that will show up in lower wage growth. i think it's a slower process than on the price side in fact, that's again a very important point for real disposable income for households if wages are slowing more slowly

than prices, that helps household incomes. >> we can hope >> yeah. >> we're bracing -- >> we're all rooting for you >> exactly right. >> good to see you jan hatzius. still the come, talking tesla. it's trying to rebound after a 52-week low. the ev market value is now smaller than exxon we'll have more after the break. ♪ ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco.

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. used car prices have been sliding lately new car prices, though, still going up a report from j.d. power expects new vehicle sales to start to fall this month as high prices start to hit buyers. joining us is the ceo of one of the largest retailers in the current, david holt. good to have you with us this morning. give me a quick take on both the

new and used car market from your perspective as we head into the new year >> sure. thank you for having me. from the new car side, it's been governed the last couple years with supply chain issues the demand is still there. it's cooling off from where it was. we're still selling a good percentage of our inventory that we're receiving. not all brands are coming back at the same time as far as supply used car side is a little choppier we've seen a decline in valuations we anticipate a further decline in pricing at some point it will stabilize and probably won't get back to '19 levels simply because of the lack of the supply in the market >> on the new car market as the supply chain finally catches up with demand, what are your expectations for next year stable, or will we see perhaps a bit of a slip? >> i don't think they're all created equal. i think there will be a little growth in the sar year over year

there's still a demand there things we have going, the average age of the car in the u.s. is over 12 years old. typically when you go into some recessions or economic downturns, the propensity for consumers to spend on parts and services is high we think we'll fare better than most through '23. >> people on the street have been watching mannheim come in every month with -- all eyes have been on it. i think it was morgan stanley the other dated said with the fed keeping their foot on the brakes and tough comps ahead, year on year declines on mannheim could approach 20%. do you think that's too dramatic >> i think it's a little dramatic i think the things you have to think about over the last couple years, with the lack of new car inventory, there's been less trades, the cars getting older the fleets -- i don't know if anyone has rented a car lately, they all have 40,000, 50,000 miles on it. there's a real vacuum to be filled in the fleet business

i think the next couple years, the used car market, there's not going to be a plethora of vehicles in the market typically your used vehicle sar runs over 40 million sales >> do you think trade-in valuations impact demand for new cars >> so the trade-in valuations have certainly been moving around they move around by market, and it depends whether it's a four-wheel drive truck or lurksry sedan. we anticipate it being choppy for the next few months. we think certainly by the spring it will stabilize. >> david, one thing we talk a lot about here is demand for evs, market share gains or losses by some of the leaders, namely tesla what are you seeing on the ground in terms of that, and what are your expectations as we head into next year? >> sure. a lot of the evs we've seen come to the market have been in the luxury lines the demand has certainly been there. certainly we have concerns over

the next 18-24 months because up to 90 models with evs coming to market we certainly have concerns in the markets where we do business as relates to infrastructure and as relates to charging >> that's a key issue. when you say that, do you mean simply there are not enough chargers out there to sustain an increased fleet? >> there really isn't. the luxury consumers usually have homes that have multiple cars they're not relying on it as a daily driver when you get into some of these larger areas where people are renting, there just isn't enough chargers out there right now to keep up with the market. >> interesting a story for us to keep focused on as well david, appreciate your taking time thank you. >> thank you for having me get a check on the markets this morning session highs, dow at 500, back to 3875. s&p red, bounce in energy as well as inventory drawdown was much more than expected.

the vixx trying to stay below 20 stay with us

with the s&p 500 of about 1.5%, even shares of tesla are moving higher after the stock touched a 52 low this week dominic chu joins us now crunching the number. >> it's not just the 52-week low. you're talking about at one point today and yesterday the lowest levels since november of 2020 i put the three year chart up just to give you an idea of what we're talking about. at these levels going back to november of 2020, those are the levels that we've talked about and since the highs we've seen about two thirds of the value come off during that time span since the highs we saw last year with tesla stock up about two thirds of 1% right now it begs the question and the debate for traders and investors whether

this has fallen by too much or a point it's going to become a value. with the valuation in mind we looked at the forward ratio earnings on the stock, how much does it trade today for anticipated volume of earnings in the next 12 months. at one point, tesla was a stock that traded around 225 times those forward expected earnings. in january of '21. if you look at where it is now, talking about 25 times earnings, still more expensive than the market but fractional compared to where it was in valuation so part of the debate discussion amongst traders to see if it reached a relative value in terms of trade if you look at market caps at the highs we saw, the records for tesla, talking about a one and a quarter trillion, with a t, dollar market capitalization. in today's trade about $440 billion, we'll call it

roughly $800 billion in lost market cap in that span. at $440 billion currently right now, david mentioned it, it is now ironically enough smaller in terms of market cap than exxon mobile so a clean energy is worth less than traditional carbon fuels. $800 billion is like losing two wamt walmarts in the last couple of years so we'll see if the valuations have become attractive in some way, shape, or form given the moves. "reuters" saying that ftx founder sam bankman-fried has left a bahamas prison, according to source, and i think some video is coming in now as we track his travel to the united states through that extradition, david, and we start to get a sense as to how this is going to work

the legal process with him on american soil later today, we think. >> yeah, in new york because obviously the indictment was from the southern district so the question then becomes as we entertained earlier, will bail and set and will he be allowed out as was not the case in the bahamas where apparently he was at a prison that was, you know, pretty rough conditions. >> yeah. there have been some -- and then obviously multiple attempts with the bahamian authorities to say get house arrest, didn't work. and then strange from his lawyers saying he'd like another shot at looking at a potential deal to come to the united states and that's where we are right now. but that along with the ongoing scrutiny of binance and proof of reserves and who can be trusted in the space and who can't man, it's evolved so fast. >> it has and binance has become a focus.

the journal today writing a story, again questioning even the fact that we don't -- it's not even headquartered anywhere because they don't work from offices. so where is binanced focus a look at sam bankman-fried, he's been outspoken. speaking to a lot of different people including, of course, andrew ross sorkin not many weeks ago not long before he was taken away you can imagine the scenario, carl, i know it sounds funny, if we gets out on bail maybe he'll join us on set he seems to want to tell anybody who will listen i didn't know, it wasn't my fault i want to make everybody good. >> it would be interesting to pair whatever he says with what john ray said in front of congress a few days ago. namely they've secured about a billion in client assets it'll take weeks or months to secure all of the company's assets but there were virtually no internal controls no separateness whatsoever, i've

never seen an utter lack of recordkeeping, i don't trust a single piece of paper in this organization, all of that from john ray the other day. >> i found that and at the time we talked about it a bit, perhaps one of the most fascinating things we've learned thus far in part because of the name brands of the venture investors who made significant investments in ftx and clearly did not question or did not ask for any level of really detailed recordkeeping. it continues to boggle the mine as you look at bankman-fried there. >> no one wanted to be the spoiler. >> no. >> probably an inking of should i ask but at the risk of losing that piece of a deal, no one wanted to go there we're waiting for bankman-fried to perhaps arrive in the united states in a matter of hours, perhaps later today. but let's finish up getting a

check on the markets always glad to have this man next to me >> did you see the consumer confidence we moved up 2500 points, so good economic news and good earnings reports coming in today a lot of beaten up sectors getting a look consumer discretionary, every subsector down this month. reits have had a terrible month, lows on the office and mall reits, they're bouncing. banks awful month, retail awful, they're all bouncing today we're getting a rally, who knows if it's a santa claus rally. what's leading the s&p today, the big earnings reports, nike is number one up there, low bar, beat all three metrics we were looking for. carnival, a little bit of disappointment but bookings were strong home builders horrible month but

mort mortgage rates are lower the usual suspects are up 2 to 3% in retail spending. the banks what an awful month since the goldman sachs banging conference they were terrible. key corp., fifth third all down about 10% on the month, they're bouncing as well today 2 or 3%. even wells fargo moving to the upside a little bit of a mini rally four down days in the s&p now two up days. okay. >> is it a santa claus rally or not, though? >> who knows at this point we know that 2022 story is inflation, figuring that out 2023 story is what side of the recession debate are you on? soft landing side, earnings flat hard landing earnings down 10 or

20%. we're a long way from the hard landing priced into the stock market. >> that's the question you and i have every day, what's the number next year for s&p earnings >> a serious recession, 20% happens all the time we haven't seen one of those really since 2009. remember that year, of course. >> i do. >> that was a serious move to the down side. we're not priced in for that, but flattish we're priced in for. >> that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street." time to send it to "techcheck. ♪ good wednesday morning welcome to "techcheck" i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt deirdre bosa has the morning off today. more with what to do with amazon and shopify. plus is the real figure behind tesla's down fall the fed? elon musk seems to think so. we'll discuss. finally, call it a golden ticket youtube reportedly beating out apple, amazon and others for the