earn earnings, ardagh it came out in a spac structure and everybody hated companies that are associated with that. zpli >> i like it and by the way, jenny. i'm going to tell you the truth. i'm going out and buying a bag of clams after the show. that's the truth that's what we're having for dinner >> "the exchange," right now >> thank you, brian! hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. and here's what's ahead today. stocks are getting a pretty nice lift from better than expected earnings have you seen shares of nike, by the way? consumer confidence also beating expectations but housing stuck in a deep freeze and the fed and the market are still on two totally different pages for 2023 we'll tackle it. >> plus, rising rates have crushed the mortgage lenders, but we have the ceo of rocket companies, and what his company is doing to try to soften the blow and attract customers and there are changes coming

to your 401(k), courtesy of congress and their $1.7 trillion funding bill we'll tell you what you need to know and what was not in this big legislation. but let's start with today's markets. kristina partsinevelos is here with our numbers >> you just mentioned, who do you believe, kelly do you believe santa can come next week ahead of the year end? if we're going to talk historically, the last time the major averages closed in the red for december was 2018 with much of that action happening in the final four trading days of the year you saw all major indices, at least 6.5% higher, but the month still closed out lower so today for this month, if the market rallies like that, we can wipe out the current losses of 6.5% of the s&p 500. so there is some optimism out there. the s&p 500 is above that 3,800 mark but today, stocks are up for a second day in a row after two major earnings reports or, maybe we can say that that's the excuse to rally. you have nike that beat expectations for the quarter that's helping other retail

names, successfully clearing through some inventory levels. and the second earnings report is fedex despite weakening demand, the company beat eps nike soaring 13.5% among the s&p laggards, we just talked about some good names webber seeing a few hotel names that stand out like host hotels, hilton, and marriott those are some of the weakest players on the s&p hilton down almost 2%. marriott, 1.5% there's no major catalyst, but there was a strong report from carnival and there were some numbers that said that after thanksgiving, we started to see a little bit of a drop-off maybe that's part of the reason or happens to be a sector that's selling off. >> kristina, thank you the battle between inflation over the fed and the markets is alive and well senior economics res reporter se liesman is here with the very latest on this front >> and it's showing no signs of closing. the market says the fed is probably making a mistake here and missing a drop in the

inflation that's happening right now. the result, a fed that sees the funds rate as high as 5.12%. and rates ending the year at 438, according to the latest fed fund futures pricing key to the market view, looking at the relatively benign inflation of the past five months and annualizing that. and not using the year over year rates, which include high rates in the past. here's the numbers that were calculated 7.1 is the year over year headline 6% is the year over year core ex-food and energy, but the last five months, the headline is 2.5% it would be lower if you use the pce calculation. core is 4.7% still evaluated, but on the way down fed chair jay powell, no doubt he's aware of these numbers, but continues to base that hawkish outlook on a subset of the inflation data, the service sector "x" housing, where

prices, he believes, a driven mostly by wages. he believes wages are not coming down until labor market and supply are back in the balance that only happens by reducing consumer demand. his view is that inflation is substantially entrenched the market says, no, it's coming down now >> let's ask mark zandi. for more on the fed's effort to bring down inflation and the impact on the economy, zandi's is the chief economist at moody's analytics. it's great to see you again. welcome, first of all. >> thank you, thank. >> you're quite zen about the outlook, utopian, i might add. >> zendi >> you see gracefully falling inflation next year, a fed that's basically able to orchestrate a soft landing i don't know -- it just fields like the yield curve in some of these market signals are telling us, we could be in for a much harder fall. >> i think markets are anticipating a recession that's how you get the fed funds rate moving south by the end of next year. you know, i just don't think

that's necessary assuming stuff doesn't go off the rails, assuming oil prices don't spike, assuming that whatever happens in china doesn't lock down supply chains again in any meaningful way, i think we can get through the next 12 to 18 months would have a recession and get inflation back in. inflation numbers feel pretty good to me year over year, cpi, 7%ish, feels like we're headed to about half that by the end of '23 and back close to the fed's target is probably about 2.5% by mid-2024 >> i know housing is obviously a core part of what you specialize in we are starting to see real weakness that might be able to tip over into layoffs for the first time and as steve and i were talking about, that might be one of the channels through which we start to see the labor marketslow. that will tell us the path from here to a market slowing >> the market is slowing

they are moderating pretty quickly. and my guess is when we get all of the revisions, they will be revised down and say, job growth did slow meaningfully here a lot of folks are getting laid off. we're getting severance packages and they have to go through those before they can file and show up in the employment statistics i think the labor market is sticking pretty close to a script where it's slowing and the labor market feels like it's easing, the unemployment rate is no longer falling and it's edging north employment-to-population is headed south all the things are coming together to maybe feel like by certainly this time next year, kind of stick to the script, we should see wage growth rolling over and that should allow inflation to come back in. >> steve, before i let you jump in, wet had a good 20-year bond auction >> my good friend and colleague from chicago >> yes, rick santelli is tracking the action. what do these results tell us? >> i tell you what, boy, they

really lined up for this 20-year. we had $12 billion of reopened 20s, which means really 19-year, 11-month securities. but the yield, 3.935 which was about a full basis points below the one issued at market lower yield, higher price. i gave this option an a minus. and if you look at an intraday of 20-year, you could see yields dropping atop of the hour, pretty much every metric was good the rate was good compared to where it was trading a bid to cover 2.68, well above 2.58, ten-auction average. 8.7 go to dealers. the buffet table was pretty empty, dealers didn't get a lot of leftovers, that's always a good sign. and let's, you know, 20-year isn't the longest maturity, but a pretty juicy yield as you look at that ten-year chart, many believe the amount of time that we'll spend at lower yields might be over for the rest of the year, so this was a bit of a surprise, but no matter how you slice it, kelly, steve, this was a very solid auction, as we get ready to wrap

up 2022. >> rick, stick around there for just a moment. i want to have you jump in back here for another comment this was significant, because the 20-year can have kind of soft demand. it's not the market's favorite bond offering. and all the people who have been lining up to tell us, maybe this is emblematic. here they are trying to blow the house down to get in on this 20-year auction. >> i have an image in my head of people running over rick to go to the auction give me more of that 20-year paper. it's hard to get into your brain people who want to do that they have maturities that they have to match. but you're sitting there, you can get a six-month for 470. but then you have the risk of rollover that's going to run out over six months i want to get back to the inflation story here, and ask mark, mark, two things, is the five-month annualized a better way to look at it? you're leaving out some of the stuff that happened a year ago, that's not happening right now and the other question is about

whether powell is too fixated on this services, core services ex-housing as the reason that's animating his hawkish view right now. >> yeah, steve, i mean, i think if you want to look at like turning points and statistics, like the inflation statistics or the employment statistics, you can't just look at the year over year year over year is important. but three-month annualized growth, six-month, five-month, i think that's very helpful. and you showed it. inflation is clearly moderating here so i think we're moving in the right direction. still, again, kind of sticking to script. i think, you know, powell -- chair powell is focused on core service inflation, because that's the one thing that he can have some impact on, right he can't affect oil prices, he can't affect what's going on in skm china and supply chains. he can affect labor markets, wage growth, and ultimately, core services. he's focused on that by the way, i think, you know, even if he had my forecast for inflation, you know, which is, as you said, pretty zen, i would

be talking like him. i would say, you know, we got a lot ofwork to do, a lot of things have got to come together i would be saying the same thing, to make sure -- >> saying it is one thing, doing it is the other. that's where we get into the discussions, every morning with -- rick is still there, but the idea of -- because there's one forecast which is, what's the fed going to do? and the other one is, is it going to be a big mistake? >> right >> pabecause that's another thig that's embedded in the gap between the market and the fed not only do they have a different inflation outlook, they have an outlook that the fed is about to screw up >> rick, what do you say about that you interpret these signals better than anybody. >> everybody is happeninging their hat on some of the research coming out of the philly fed it's been a week since they put out a report saying that 37 states plus d.c. have job growth much too strong based on what they see the bureau of labor and statistics for a four and a half

month period from march on sees about 1.25 million jobs, but philly says it's really only 10,500 jobs. and steve knows that it's the march release of the february jobs report that gives us the benchmark revisions and i'm sure that mark would agree with this. >> can i just interrupt -- rick, i want to interrupt. i just spent an hour on the phone with a guy who calculates that data from the philly fed and i'll do a story on it tomorrow assist very interesting story. i'm not going to spill the beans right now. rick, you're right to point it out, is all i'll say >> it's overstated, though -- >> methodology is different. you know, atlanta fed's never always right, methodology is different. but everybody needs to be aware of it. >> i agree, rick >> it's making a case for a slowdown, but overstating a case by orders of magnitude there are seasonal adjustment issues with -- >> mark, just to correct -- my take on that is the market and the twitter atmosphere have overstated the case, because the guys doing the data, they're not

overstating it they're saying, it's one quarter's worth of data, it was dramatically overstated in the prior quarter. it's overstated now. now i'm giving away the story for tomorrow so it could be a huge signal of a turning point, but the guy who puts the data together says, i need another quarter to know >> and the other thing, some estates -- and i know this because i began my career fixated on that data and worried about how to measure it. some estates is not the same as the national data, by orders of magnitude. so the job market is slowing and i expect revisions down, but nothing compared to what that data would seem ingly suggest. >> do we have time to get to rick the question about how much of a mistake is the market building in right now? i want to ask rick that question sorry. >> oh, sure. >> you know what, steve? i think that the market has a definite opinion about recession, and a definite opinion about us drawing capital flows even in a global recession. but i do think that story has

helped fuel some of the buying that pushed us down in yield but as you can see, we've started to come back a bit and i think that the fed guidance, of course, is on one side of the equation and the market along with the notion of what philly fed says and what that may mean for further reports down is road is at odds with one another but in my opinion, the market does believe a recession is coming and the market believes that the fed is going to go too far. >> and mark zandi, you say no -- >> i'm confused by the market. which markets? the bond market and the yield curve, maybe yes >> yield curve ten-year note yields high yield of 4.25 >> the bond market includes the corporate bond market and corporate yield spreads are below their typical average. >> that's default risk being very low, which is not much of a recession indicator right now. >> you ever talk to traders that

are interested in yield enhancement? they're the craziest group of traders you'll ever meet and they think they can dance between the raindrops. >> what about the equity market is down 20% from its july time peak andthat's all interest rates >> the equity market, that's easy the equity market believes that inflation is historically high and the bond market believes inflation has peaked and there you go tug-of-war >> that's my point which market i'm not so sure. and -- that the yield curve is the -- i would not be a slave to the yield curve. >> i'm pretty sure i think i would have to bet against the fed's forecasting. sorry. >> and i agree with that, that betting against -- the question is, how do you make the bet? is the bet that their -- i'm going to leave it there, but it is for sure -- >> it's the best way to make that bet >> what is that? >> curve inversion trades. i think that's the way you play. >> the market almost certainly has this right in terms of the

inversion. the question is, why does it have it right? because inflation falls or because the fed screws up and creates a recession. >> we'll leave it there with the $1 trillion question i love this. thank you all, mark zandi, rick santelli, steve liesman, and to be continued, we will say. coming up, shares of rocket companies down 45% this year rising rates have put huge pressure on them the ceo joins us with a state of mortgage lending and what they're doing to entice more buyers and for all of this talk about clean energy, coasta kohl's hasn making a huge comeback let's get a quick look at the markets. seeing strong gains today. the small cap rufssells are in the leadership and the ten-year treasury still sitting at around 3.67%. "the exchange" is back after this this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again.

what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! -yes you can! i can do better, too! see how easy it is to save hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today.

welcome back, everybody. existing home sales dropped for the tenth straight month in november prices, interestingly, still on the rise it's not all bad news in housing today. the mortgage market saw a surge in demand last week. diana olick is here to break it all down for us. diana? >> reporter: well, kelly, existing home sales in november fell much more than expected, and much more than the usual seasonal declines. sales dropped 7.7% to the

slowest pace since 2010, and that was during the foreclosure crisis that's with the exception of a very brief drop at the start of the pandemic these numbers are based on closing, so contracts signed likely in september and october, and that's when mortgage rates hit their recent highs, over 7% on the 30-year fixed they have since come down to the lower 6% range, but that would not be reflected here. supply is still super tight at just 3.3 months, but it actually increased slightly in november from a year ago. that kept the heat under prices, up 3.5% from a year ago to the highest november price on record, going back to 968. one interesting note is that the share of all-cash sales rose slightly while the investor share dropped, meaning more owner occupants are now using cash rather than getting a mortgage at higher rates and you can see that, of course, in the mortgage application numbers. we did finally see a surge in refinance demand last week, up 6% from the previous week, and that's thanks to the drop in rates. but demand from home buyers was

flat and down, 35% from a year ago. mortgage rates have popped back up this week, about a quarter percentage point just from last thursday, kelly. >> wow, true diana, thank you mortgage lenders have been hit hard by rising rates and slowing sales. rocket companies, the new exception, the stock down 45% year-to-date, to entice buyers, they're offering mortgage buydowns diana has been reporting all about this it reduces monthly mortgage payments by about a percentage point for the first year of the loan joining us now with more on that and the state of housing in 2023 jay vanrner is vice chair and ceo. welcome. >> happy holidays and thanks for having me. >> the unique thing about what you're offering is you're paying people to do these buydowns. how does this work >> we launched our inflation buster program a few months ago to help clients who were still wanting to buy a home, especially in the first year you buy a home, there's some fixup that you might want to do, you might want to purchase

furniture, there are some moving costs. giving them a slight break on their mortgage payment in that first year we thought would really help move buyers along. but they're getting approved on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and for the next 29 years, they're locked into a fixed rate a program to help you get into a new program, but a great, safe program for clients. >> tell me, such an interesting time to be steering this company. on the one hand, you can try to go more into fintech to diversity. it raises your expenses, or you stick with your bread and butter mortgages, reduce costs, wait out the cycle a little bit what's your thought process? >> great question. really shows how you're thinking about the space. i think we're really one of the only companies making significant technology investment right now to change the game if you think about our business, you can view it as a transactional business there's the cost to acquire the client and then there's the lifetime value of the client the greater the life ttime valu the lower the cost and the

greater you can grow market share. for us, when you think about rocket money, rocket dashboard, these are all technology tools that allow us to bring clients in, keep them engaged, whether it takes five months, ten months, two years to buy a home, we can confidently market, grow market share, but that means we've got to continue to invest. lucky for us, we've had some great years. we were very smart about our balance sheet, and so we've got the cash to make these investments. >> so what should we expect from rocket in the next couple of years. more initiatives to diversity or more ways of using that cash to try to steal whatever customers are in the pot for mortgages to make sure they are going to be rocket customers >> i think 2023, we'll continue to see evaluate d interest rates so the market closer to $1.5 to $2 trillion market initiative. with the initiatives we're rolling out, we'll see increased conversion, grow market share, as we continue to see other people pull back i think '23 is a really strategic year for us. then we get into '24, '25, see relief in interest rates and all

of these great investments will pay off as we continue to grow our market share and engage with our retail clients across all 50 states >> and your app has been a calling card we're well aware of the kme commercials and publicity that that's garnered and the success it's had some say a better approach in the long run might be to have a lot local presence to work on the ground closer to where those home buyers are helping them through those mortgage decisions. have you thought about that? it seems like now would be probably the wrong time to increase, you know, head count at scale, but are you going to stick with the approach that we've seen so far? >> yeah, what you're talking about is what do buyers need what do sellers need we've got rocket money, we've got rocket homes it's about bringing value to those consumers. traditionally, one way that people are able to do that is to be on the ground what we found, we can deliver a better purchase experience than anyone else. and that's what you're going to see us do in 2023. all of our team members, all of our technology, all of our product strategy group,

marketing group focused on making sure that we close loans faster, that our approvals are the best ones out there, and we become the largest purchase lender in this country we've demonstrated that for almost 37 years in and out, that we can continue to grow from a centralized position and you can see us lean in and continue too that as we go forward. >> what do you say we're coming into christmastime, holidays, and i'm sure people will be asking you, jay, what's going to happen with the housing market are prices going to drop am i going to get a great deal you are on the front lines of this, and this is the front lines for the rest of us in terms of where the economy is going. are we just in a deep freeze or what how would you describe conditions and where are the conditions for maybe homeowners and those who are still on the sidelines? >> i think things will pick up a bit in the spring. inventory, and we talked about it, i heard your reporter here just before i got on, inventory is the biggest issue there are still first-time home buyers out there where the largest lender to first-time home buyers want to purchase a home, they can't find one.

why aren't people moving up? they have tons of equity in their property today, they have the money to do the down payment, but what they don't want to do is take on that larger mortgage payment. for the last few years, they've been able to move up and have the same or reduced mortgage payment, now that rates have moved up, that's slowing down the second and third-time home buyers you have heard people doing cash right now. we need to see those second and third-time buyers get back in the market, and the first-time home buyers can jump in. >> is there anything a company like rocket can do to make that happen >> you'll see some initiatives from us in the spring that will allow people to save even more money when they're buying and selling homes and that will allow us to purchase that market share. >> maybe a solution or help for the whole space while you're at it jay, thanks for your time today. we appreciate it >> you bet it, thanks for having me >> jay fartheor a farner. what do changes to retirement, a tiktok ban and a

boeing deadline all have in common they're all in the huge somnibu spdienng bill. we'll see if congress can fight it once infighting amongst the gop ramps up this is ge healthcare, creating a world where healthcare has no limits. this is ge vernova, helping generate and move the energy that our world needs. this is ge aerospace, advancing flight for future generations. this is the next generation of ge. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

welcome back to "the exchange," everybody up 588 was the session high. we're about a hundred points off that level right now but some pretty strong gains you can stretch to find a reason or you could just say, we've had to spring back after a series of declines here. nasdaq is up 1.5% today. here are some of the movers we're watching carnival is higher after reporting a smaller than expected loss. they miss on revenues. their first quarter guidance came in light, but customer deposits hit a quarterly record. investors are in the buying mood and shares are up nearly 5%.

six flags also up on the announcement that land and building have accumulated a stake. the activist firm has pushed for a spin-off from the company's real estate holdings we're also watching netflix higher thanks to "wednesday adams," it's up 3.5% today these shares are up more than 80% from their 52-week low back in may that is a striking turnaround. they're just under 300 right now. let's get to tyler mathisen for a cnbc news update tyler? >> you got it. here you go. here's your news update at this hour white house preparing for the arrival of ukrainian president zelenskyy. he landed outside of washington in the past hour first is up a meeting with president biden, followed by a joint news conference and a nighttime speech, prime-time, in front of congress. and just before zelenskyy's arrival, biden announced 1.85 billion new in ukraine it include a patriot missile battery and precision-guided bombs for fighter jets

the kremlin has warned that there may be, quote, consequences if the u.s. gives more advanced weapons to ukraine like that patriot missile system on capitol hill, senate majority leader schumer urging senators to pass more aid for ukraine. they are set to vote on a spending package that includes $45 billion in emergency funding for ukraine. and along the u.s./mexico border, thousands of migrants have set up camp, seeking shelter from the brutal cold they are waiting for the supreme court to rule on restrictions that have prevented many from seeking asylum in the united states an ongoing story there, kelly. >> all right, tyler, thank you we'll see you soon tyler mathisen still ahead, everything is awesome, today at least, for nike and fedex their results were stronger than expected, stocks are up, consumer confidence blew forecasts out of the water inflation expectations are falling. so how should you position now we'll discuss up next on "the exchange."

at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

welcome back to "the exchange." nike and fedex may have had something to do with it. last night, better than expected earnings from both, raising hopes that earnings season might not as bad as feared the dow, s&p, and nasdaq up 1%

and positive for the week. still only wednesday does this change the recession narrative or should investors still hold on to value over growth heading into 2023 joining us now, charlie b brabrinskoi and shannon is ceo of svp private charlie, good to see you again, and you've been pounding the table. the fed will make a mistake here, and i think the market is totally coming around to that point of view. so what do you make of the action the past 24 hours and as we look to head into next year >> it's a little bit like watching a football game on the internet, where they show the probability of win on the side and if your team looks like they're going to win and then they throw an interception, all of a sudden that probability goes down. i have been predicting, i have been saying that the chance of a recession is modestly over 50% i think the last number i gave you was about 70% for next year. based on today's numbers, i've got to bring that number down a little bit the argument that we're not going to have a recession is that the consumer is in very

good shape, the consumer's balance sheet is in very good shape, it's hard to go into a recession when you have a very strong labor market, and that's what we have right now but on the other side, we still have this fed, which i do think is highly probable of making a policy mistake, so i'm going to adjust modestly down and say the chance of a recession next year is about 60% >> slight tangent, but i hate those probabilities, charlie because we're all watching the game and the facts change and the prediction changes the prediction is worthless. it's like the fed just tells you what you already know. >> it's not worthless. what do you do when the facts change i change my opinion. what do you do, senator? and that's what's happened here. if you're a quarterback, there's an interception in the fourth quarter, the chance of you winning goes down a little bit but right now, if you have great corporate earnings with, the chance of a recession does go down >> shannon, you're long a bunch

of different stocks. feeling pretty different about the economy that charlie is describing, maybe he feels a little bit better about now today as well. >> i think there's sort of two sides to the story here, for 2023 i think the first half of the year is going to be rather difficult. and i am not taking as much comfort, i guess, you could say, in the consumer confidence number today, consumer confidence and consumer spending are not nearly as correlated in real life as you would think they would be, so i look out over the course of the second half of the year, i worry about the rest of the components of gdp. we're not going. and so there's really this one sort of outstanding piece in terms of manufacturing capex that could be potentially a catalyst to help support gdp growth into the back half of next year pip worry a little bit about underestimating the long-term lag effects of these

financial conditions we're speciousing now. so i think with our view, really looking at companies that have some secular tail winds, that can engineer their own growth, because i continue to see that both multiple expansion, as well as margin expansion are going to be really tough to come back in 2023 >> you both sound like your a little bit singing from the same hymnal in the sense that -- skpand everybody has to be, pricing power and good strong businesses but some of the names on your list would traditionally have been thought of as growth. amazon, a high inflection name the facts have changed those businesses are not what they once were that's why you can feel comfortable owning them here >> i think multiples have definitely come down, but there could be some continued compression. and you have to look at your overall portfolio. what would you be willing to pay up for is there going to be an expectation that all of the

companies in your portfolio will come back down to the mean and that's where there's a little bit of divergence in our view we believe it is going to be critical to be invested in companies that are able to grow topline absent strong gdp growth but i think, kelly, the important point is that those aren't all in the growth sectors. so looking at areas for health care, for instance, a traditional defensive if you look historically, can provide you with opportunities for innovation and growth in a sector that might hold up a little bit better if we are starting to increase our fears of recession >> all right charlie, we have more important stocks to talk about, but i see that you have abandoned the vegas bubble for the knicks, is that right >> i'm changing my emphasis. i've been emphasizinge ing madi square gardens, and now i want to emphasize madison square garden teams

and yesterday's sale of the suns for $4 billion gives us confidence that our estimate of the knicks at over $6 billion means that this stock is worth well north of 200, probably 250 a share and trading at a pig discount today i'm going toe emphasize the sports franchise is where there's great anecdotal value. >> 170 is where we're trading about. why goldman. a lot of challenges with their consumer business now. very cyclical, and we seem to be in a down moment of the cycle. >> trading at nine times earnings, just a hair over book value. i was an investment banker at citigroup for 21 years the name we respected the most is goldman sachs that is still true, they still have the best talent they have excellent trading relationships and they have a growing consumer business that you can get for nine times earnings this is a very high-quality company trading at a very reasonable price >> we will leave it there.

thank you both very, very much today. still ahead, why coal isn't for the naughty kids this year it's not about your stockings, it's about power, the planet the world is on pace for record consumption this year, record, after all the muoves that have happened, we'll explain why and who's benefiting, next

welcome back in a year of global energy problems, crises, and surprises, this one may be the most surprising of all. the use of coal is soaring global usage is on pace for its highest year on record brian, this has been huge for these stocks that we thought were long gone >> dare i call it random and interesting, kelly can i say that on "the exchange"? all right, coal use, folks, coal is at a record high this year. the international energy agency is saying that global coal use is going to be up more than 1% 1% doesn't sound like a lot, but when you're already high, that's

a new record in fact, let's measure it in weight the iea says that coal use should hit 8 billion tons this year and that would break the previous record of coal use set in 2013. all right, what? why is coal so hot well, number one, it's a cheaper option, okay number two, you've got a lot of weird weather. you had a lot of heat, you had a lot of drought, you had some lack of wind what does that mean? well,hydro, you need more coal,f it's too hot, you've got to run the air-conditioners, and if there's no wind, you have to get the power from story this is a china/indonesia story. china, they're building whole new coal capacities. they had power outages last year paranoid about running out of energy coal use here in the u.s., also still way larger than you think, kelly. look at this the electricity generation mix, a couple of hours ago in what

they called the mid-continent iso, independent systems operator, you can see it's about 40% coal now, this will be wound down over coming years, we are toad but for now, coal, look at that, coal around the world and in america is like the hottest asset class. >> so here's -- you know, it raises so many questions about whether you should just invest in everything that people are trying to get rid of, because apparently they will not be successful but a lot of this seems to do with this unique shortage of energy around the world and the ripple effects of that is it going to last into 2023, do we know is it going to have to be a permanent part of the energy mix solution i'm thinking about this from the stock's point of view, which had such a run off >> i'm confident enough to say that 2023, yes in a year, we're not going to change anything. if you read about energy transitions, as i have been for years now, they take way longer than you think you can like it or not, but you can't disagree with history. they can take a hundred years, right?

the rest of the world just wants a little bit of what we've had, which is reliable energy, turn on the heat, turn on the air-conditioning we talk about the danger of heat, heatstroke, have air-conditioning cold kills more people worldwide than heat. doesn't get any attention. cold is a much bigger killer than heat. by the way, we referenced prices prices have come down off their peak, but look at these stocks peabody, they've just printed m money for investors this year. not sure those kind of returns will continue, kelly, but, hey >> and i guess the main thing to watch, if you're looking atthi going, i should have been in these names, brian is telling me we're still going to have coal demand for next year, but do we have to go back and say, well, what are the stockpiles for nat gas in europe? >> first off, can you show me a major wall street firm recommending coal stocks miss evans, have i got a hot stock for you. at&t and coal. it's hard to elieve. your thesis about buy the stuff

that other people are dumping. if it's still being yulutilized you can hate the story, but it's true it's not my story, it's the iae, and any other number of energy-related acronyms. >> everyone's getting coal in their stocking and liking it >> i'm not i'm nice brian sullivan, thank you. still ahead, the omnibus spending bill includes big changes for retirement plans can congress help you stash away extra cash in the new year all you need to know, next ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco.

if you wanted to hold my hand... because if it's connected, it's protected. [ gasps ]

all you had to do is ask. i am down to my last life. when you only have one life... that's what makes it special. go get 'em tiger.

welcome back a huge omnibus spending bill could be the final measure passed by this congress and buried in it are some big changes for retirement plans let's get to ylan mui with the latest on what it means for you. >> washington wants to encourage americans to save more money and it's close to passing a bipartisan bill that could help households grow their retirement income and guard against financial emergencies. the secure act 2.0 would require companies to automatically enroll new workers in a 401(k) plan starting in 2025. now, employees can still opt out if they want, but by making this a default, workers are expected

to increase their retirement savings by $40.5 billion over a decade the bill would also allow companies to set up emergency savings accounts for workers who can fill it up through automatic payroll deductions devon miller is ceo of securesafe it's already working with businesses to provide this benefit, and he said many even kick in a matching contribution. working to businesses to provide this and many kick in a matching contribution. >> it's the number one for the average american and right now, it's the thing everybody wants and needs more of. so credit to both parties to recognize that and to try and find solutions to help people save more faster >> it also raises the requirement age for taking distributions from your 401(k) and requires companies to give part-time workers access to their retirement plans this is part of the $1.7 t

$1.7 trillion deal to fund the federal government it is expected to pass hopefully this week. >> so people will be automatically enrolled but it change the amount of, so for everybody else, does it change the levels that we can put into these plans or anything like that >> yes, both of those things starting in 2025, companies will have to enroll new workers into plans with percentage contributions anywhere from about 3 to 10% increasing every single year and in addition to that, it would also allow people to increase the catch-up contribution limit s >> got it. thank you very much. ylan mui following the twists and turns of this. what else is in the bill and most importantly, what's not let's bring in livi. there's quite a few things of interest start with the 401(k) stuff. should we expect this to pass in its current form >> yes, it looks very likely to pass, kelly, and this has been a priority for many senators,

particularly senator portman and congressman brady, both of whom are retiring at year end particularly the auto enrollment provision as she was describing. but this entire package of secure 2.0 has a lot of bipartisan support and is, will pass in its current form this is sort of typical of congress a, waiting until the 11th hour to pass a big funding bill, but then b, attaching several things to it and again, secure 2.0 in its current form is likely to be passed by both chambers and signed into law by the weekend >> also interesting to me, they're going to raise the age for required distributions, 73 in 2023 and 75 by 2033 could be a positive for people looking to push that off also, a win in here for boeing a loss for tiktok, which maybe could be a win for rivals like meta what are some implications for

investors? >> that's right. there was a waiver that's going to benefit boeing that they were certainly lobbying for behind the scenes a ban on federal devices from having tiktok on it. that's sort of a first step. doesn't go far enough according to some members of congress, but i think does sort of indicate the direction of travel around future prohibitions around tiktok and likely other sort of china-based technology other things, the electoral count act was included this also has bipartisan support. again, doesn't go as far as some folks who were wanting a bigger kind of comprehensive voting rights bill, but does likely address some of the issues that we saw on january 6th. and does not include though importantly for kind of our world in terms of the fixed any addressing of the debt ceiling, so that will be punted to a later day. as you said, there are lots of

other things it does not also include which are important for the market >> yeah, and corporate taxes are going up it sounds like. >> and this is despite a lot of a advocacy from some of the main business groups, business round table, chamber of commerce and lots of other companies who were advocating for an extension. that was not included in the bill that means it reverts to advertising over five years so effectively, a tax increase. >> 3% hit to eps next year, goldman saying what's in, what's out, what it means for your money still ahead, no job security, no problem our latest cnbc workforce survey found most workers are sllti surprisingly relaxed heading into the new year. will it last that's next. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud.

you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective.

and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back. ugh, this rental car is so boring to drive. let's be honest. the rent-a-car industry is the definition of boring. and the reason can be found in the name itself. rent - a - car? you don't want a friend. you want the friend. you don't want a job. you want the job. the is always over a. that's why we don't offer a car. we offer the car. ( ♪♪ ) sixt. rent the car.

welcome back want to get to one more thing before we go a spade of layoffs across the tech sector is not actually

spooking workers in other fields at least so far according to the latest cnbc workforce survey sharon epperson is here with the results. >> with relatively low unemployment and recent wage growth, only about 39% of workers are concerned they or someone in their household will be laid off or lose their job in the next few months and the overwhelming majority, 74%, say their company is prepared to handle recession if one occurs now, this is according to an online poll of more than 10,000 workers conducted for cnbc in the last week of november, early december the survey also found that workplace satisfaction is a key factor in whether employees believe their company can handle a recession. it showed that 86% of the overall morale of their company is excellent say they can handle

a recession. now, inflation concerns are also growing. more than two-thirds of workers, 67%, say the biggest threat to their job is an economic downturn and that's seven percentage points higher than it was in june of 2019. last time cnbc polled workers on this question. >> so, sharon, what's the pulse out there then is the great resignation over? are people still you know, silent quitting, quiet quitting and all the rest of it or are w% s starting to see that change? >> we may have seen a quitting peak because we saw on the survey that more than a third of people were considering quitting their job, but it went from 39% is what it was a few months ago to 36% in terms of the number of workers who said they're seriously considering finding a new job and, or quitting their job. and this also is far different than the 20% level that we were at during the pandemic around may of 2020. so we're seeing that people are still saying that they could

quit their job they're confident they can find another job in a quick period of time as well but what's interesting is remote workers are far less likely to say they'll be able to find a new job with the same amount of pay as full-time workers full-time workers are really confident compared to only about a quarter of remote workers say they'll be able to find a job if they want one. >> always interesting. sharon will be back tomorrow with a fun look at some of the workplace buzz words that debuted this year. that does it for us. while the survey reveals people aren't concerned about job security, they may want to rethink that from fedex is right. we'll trade it on "power lunch," which starts right now >> bindeed the dow up 505 here's what's ahead. te tesla