decline down, just 1.5%, but the nasdaq is lower by a more substantial margin, by almost 3% for now, we'll hand it over to the sixth c. >> that would be the "closing bell." thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. so much for a year-inderally bearish comments from david tepper, a mixed bag on the -- though we have come off the worst levels this is the make-or-break hour for your money let's look at where things stand, as well, down about 113, currently holding 3800 biggest decliners in the space, you'll find tesla in there on pace for the worst quarter ever. we're going to be all over the

sell-off throughout the show coming up, the white house's reaction to today's gdp print. we'll be joined by brian deese, plus much more on tesla, under heavy pressure today on news of price cuts we'll talk about it with mark fields first, straight to the sell jot, mike santoli, mike, what is on the radar this afternoon >> pretty precarious, carl, 3800, there abouts, was under -- and it did seem to create some follow-on. we're flipping short really the unspooling of the nasdaq trade continues here's a two-year chart. we're almost back to a round trip it's around 3700 at the very end of 2020, is where we're going back to. that to me really represents a genuine reset in the markets

though david tepper did is a we have an 8% annualized s&p, this is the defined down trend, the rally from october into november did not win back the benefit of the doubt. the question is, do we have to get lower and reset the. cars and homes, tough for the economy to do well when both are going in the reverse maybe there's some divergence between the housing sector and what autos are doing they were mostly in sync up to about two months ago mortgage rates got some relief nkts you see the likes of dr horton and home depot actually picking up a bit where allied, as well as carmax have continued lower

all delinquencies in contrast to the spread between housing equity and housing debt, right? >> exactly it seems as if the consumer balance sheet issues are giving us a bowen us structure shortage in home building in other words, a business of relief on the average mortgage payment front. stocks did -- growth of 3-2 in the third quarter driven by an upward revision also revised slightly higher for a 4.7% annualized rate joining us is national economic council director brian deese good to see you. happy holidays. >> likewise. good to be here. >> it's been a mixed bag today

what do you make of that final look at the third quarter, and all of the folks who says at the time they thought we were in recession? >> well, you know, usually the final revisions to gdp don't tell you all that much we see a resill gens, that the growth was solid, and importantly we saw more of that was driven by the consumer and private final demand, which is valuable and important in this context. and at the same time, some promising signs of inflation easing as well we have seen that in multiple

parts of the economy so when we look at this, we look back several months, and this is what we needed to see, a very strong recovery to a transition to growth that's more steady and stable, but to do that transition, i think the data we have seen in the course of the last month, as well as the revision we got today are consistent with that transition playing out here >> if we keep done one tenth cpi month on month, you'll be looking at a 3.5 range near the summer will the white house said, fed, you did your job, and if they haven't paused by then, argue that it will be time to? >> look, we have a ways to go. the president has underscored that certainly we don't want to take anything for granted, but at the

same time the last couple months of inflation have shown some important signals. on goods, we're seeing clearly things have turned around. on housing, as you were just discussing, if you look at realtime indicators, both on housing prices and rents, we're seeing moderation. we throe that will feed into the data going forward we've seen some moderation on the services side as well. on the headline, a lot of what's happening is the decline on gas prices that's about $200 in increased discretionary income for a typical two-car family we're seeing that feed through into the process as well all of it leads up to -- people have paid less attention, but in the course of the last five months, we've seen real wage

growth over that period that's been pretty healthy that's helping to sustain consumers through this cycle as well. >> we've had some conversations this week about real household disposable income growing again. how much credit, honestly, do you give spr policy for what's happened in oil and by extension to gasoline. have you received any expressions of interest in this new policy, or at least offered to refilling it at 70? >> if you look at the spr action that the president to be, it absolutely took a place in mitigating the prices of oil obviously the price of oil, there's a lot that goes into that, but also the president's policy has broader than the spr.

starting about a year ago, the administration focused on diplomacy, some visible, others quite oat, how do we sustain energy now, as you say, we're in the interesting of repurchasing oil, now that oil is down to the range we had identified, about high 60s low 70s that's a process where we're out to bit continue to build on that effort because we sold at higher prices or buying at lower prices. that's a good return for the taxpayer you're not saying whether or

not. >> well, certainly -- in fact, one of the things that the omnibus bill that congress is passing or voting on right now, is cancel congressionally mandated scales. congress has in the past had a way of mandating sales that weren't related to strategic or national security issues, that would give them more flexibility to refill at a rate that's based on market conditions certainly the long-term strategy is to replenish the spro, and we can do so, because we're in a position to repurchase at lower prices than we sold for. >> finally, brian, we're talking about a macro you, but the macro i guess would be net concerning to some, given the guidance from

carmax, obviously what fedex said about global growth what's the white house's view about how corporate america is trying to get in front of the inventory challenges, but also weaker market demand. >> this is what i would say about this certainly this transition, we're spend ago lot of time analyzing will affect individual companies quite differently. the 1/2 tore cycle is moving now, in some places has shifted quite dramatically, and some places where we saw persistent price increases, we're actually contributing to inflation, a drag at the macro left at that turns over, good news for the economy, good news for the consumer, that will affect companies differently. what i hear consistently, however, is even as they're

navigating short-term challenges that the investment environment has improved over the immediate term, that it looks like a more stable, more secure place to invest i think that's in part to the long-term policies we have put in place these are the things that companies are looking for when trying to make long-term investment decisions no question in this transition period, some will benefit significantly, some will have to pitch slot and deal with those short-term issues. i do think in the near ter it's -- >> we look forward to talking with you morn, and certainly a policy-led demand in the weeks and months if we don't that you can to you before the hold days, have a great one. >> likewide.

happy holidays tesla's road is getting bumpier today. coming up next, we'll talk to mark fields, who weighed in on the troubles of the automaker and if things can turn around. you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc. my dad was a hard worker. he used to do side jobs installing windows, charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four to five-hundred bucks. he just didn't wanna do that. he was proud of the price he was charging. ♪♪ my dad instilled in me, always put the people before the money. be proud of offering a good product at a fair price.

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shares of tesla taking a hit, as the company offers discounts in the u.s. on the model 3 and model y vehicles delivered this month

joining us is mark fields. great to see you again thanks for the help today. >> hey, carl. >> people are trying to figure out whether this is demand destruction, maybe built on musk's antics over at twitter, or just a re-valuation of penetration will be by 2030. what do you think? >> i think overall this is the first time tesla is facing what i would call demand issues when you look at their business, right, they've had a lot of price cuts in china, which hasn't produced the results they expected how much of that is their demand for their product is still yet to be seen, but even here in the u.s., to have a large market share, it's been declining you can only go down from 100, but it will be declining when you look at a couple other data points, it shows demand may start supplanting supply issues

for them you mentioned the price cuts that they announced today. they doubled the incentive to take a teslaly by the end of the year to $7500, and in the third quarter, they actually manuf manufactured. >> you see the inventories build a bit. when you have high interest rates and price points well above $50,000, that's a tough sell for consumers that are stressed right now. >> yeah, i'm thinking back to -- remember the old quarters where elon would say we had to smooth off the quarter, not producing as many at the end of the quarter. now it's about moving the quarters at the end of the quarter. almost an inverse. >> yeah. it's a logistical issue, too when you're trying to move that many vehicles at the ends of the

quarter, yew logistics costs go up, because you're jamming through a lot of vehicles that have been to be delivered across the country. at the end of the day, the ev market penetration will ten to rise tesla is a leader there, but remember, this is the first time that they're experiencing an economic downturn. now that they're a big presence, they have to compete with the established oems, that are quite experienced. >> you know, thinking back to a few years ago, where tesla was flying high, valued more than every other automaker, and legacy oems usually end up with a similar type of multiple if tesla's multiple gets more in line with ford, then the stock has a lot farther to fall.

>> it still carries a 30 or 40 times multiples. they still carry a premium there. listen, a lot of that multiple, carl, was the fact it's a high-growth stock. they projected high growth over the future years so investors took confidence in that then when you start to see some of that confidence wane, that gets reflected back on the stock price, which is why i think you're seeing among all the other issues surrounding elon musk, now people are focusing on the fundamental growth capabilities of the company, which are still very good, but maybe don't demand that kind of premium. i think the market is speaking in that regard >> a lot of people still point out they're theal for a dog when it comes to supply chains, semis coming out and no dealer network. i wonder if they will demand a

premium, no matter what the overall auto cycle does. is that fair >> that depends on the products and the services that they bring out going forward. at the end of the day, tesla, they're a battery and software and technology company first they have done a good job of bringing out innovative products to your point, they know how to manufacture evs at scale i think that's the big issue when you had look at the established automakers, general motors as an example, they'll be launching a number of products this year. getting up the ramp-up curve, getting the scale economies is really important with the continued supply-chain issues, which would be continued in 2023, maybe to a lesser degree in 2022, if you see a start/stop in terms of that ramp-up, that will be an issue for them >> finally, i wonder if in fact we are see degradation in the

tesla's specific demand. do you see ford, gm getting more aggressive >> well, first, to put it in perspective, i think the auto industry is in a much better place starting at an economic down cycle than ever in the past, given the low inventory levels, the high average prices. but i think you will see some pricing relief, and what we call mix in the industry, which is people buying, let's say a mid-level series versus a high series, which carries a higher price sticker. i think they'll be gee dishes but will be whatever the downturn is. >> mark, good stuff, appreciate the clarity on some of these issues, which the street is

obviously still wrestling with we'll talk soon. >> thanks, carl. we had off the worst levels of the session, roughly half of where we were. coming up next bob greifeld, on why tech keeps underperforming, and why he thinking there could be a turnaround next year tesla is in the top spot followed by the ten-year we'll be right back.

welcome back to "closing bell." sam bankman-fried back on u.s. soiled after his tradition from the bahamas. big news from today's court hearing in manhattan mckinsey joins us with more. >> he was released on a $250 million bond that number is stagger an attorney told me that's the highest he's ever heard of, but there's a huge caveat here the bond agreement just was posted to the court docket this bail agreement was secured with his parents' home in palo alto that's literally it. three family members, one non-family member signed his bottom they have to hand over the equity value by january 12th

it'so we're talking about palo alto, but still that's a fraction of the $250 million bond i reached out to a former federal prosecutor, and described it as as an unsecured bond, an empty promise secured business their parents' interest in the home, and that's all these stand to lose. >> mackenzie, thank you. meantime, longtime cnbc guest scott minerd unexpectedly passed away. he was a familiar face, a frequent guest on this show, the ceo of guggenheim saying minerd was instrumental in building guggenheim investment into the global business he had scott miner was 63 years old

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the nasdaq still getting hit the hardest. joinings us is bob greifeld. great to see you this afternoon. >> my pleasure, carl >> on tech, we all know how it's underperformed and how overpriced it may have been at one point. it sounds like there are pockets, at least, that are underpriced. >> no do you about that. i think you have heard many times in the last couple weeks, about this going to be a stock

pickers' market. tech as a monolith doesn't apply. you have to break it down into component pieces, like exactly at what the fundamentals are for each segment certainly as we look at 2023, i'm quite bullish on large sectors of tech, but quite pessimistic on others. when you point out stocks that are down 50% this year, go up 10 march next year, i don't call that a victory >> right, are you willing to like it up. >> completely, but i still think that's in the index mindset. i think you have to go deeper than that. you have to do fundamental analysis, company by company so you can't have a favorite sector and spend more time in that sector, but within a sector, we definitely will have

winners and losers etf indicate, but i think we're into a stock pickers' period of time. could last a decade. >> you know, bob, getting into the end of the year, people are looking at the course of 2022, and sentiment, and in a sense, it was a year of malaise, steady, drawn-out malaise. i wonder what you think that means? >> i've spent a lot of time thinking about this, studying it it's really quite schism if the retail investors believe the market will go up 10%, 20%, they're more likely to engage. if they believe the market will go down, they're less likely to engage it seems simple and silly, but that's the basic case.

when you look at the daughters over time, it's always about the expectation of the return for a retail investor. the other point i have to make, a major shift in retail mindset, a lot of the desires are now excused through the options marke

marketplace. >> i think we had a more reasonable year than people reported on, so those data points are out there i would point mar two the quality tailive. in my experience you have to have two things. it helps to have the perfect company come to market back in 2003, zero ipo. >> it wasn't great in terms of pricing, but that released the rest of the market to feel confident going forward. now you have a situation where,

where is the next company that will tell you. the other point is look at the volumes in the private market. >> you can see them moving over to give us a clue. bob, always appreciate it. >> i appreciate sudden doing yeoman's duty on this holiday week. >> thanks. consumer discretionary among the hardest hit, as a major industry executive gives a warning about holiday spend. we'll talk about that when "closing bell" comes back. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated.

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welcome back to "closing bell." stocks are gaining back some ground joining us is nancy davis, who is quite adept an assessing tail risk what do you think let us to the intraday lows earlier? >> there's a large options position outstandinging, the december 31st 3835 call. it's part of a pittsburgh caller the dealers on the street are long gamma around the 3800 mark. there's a lot of pin risk going into the expiration at the end of the year, especially with a lot of people out of the office, lower liquidity into the holidays. >> you expect that level to remain important through the course of the year

>> yes, i expect the market to be pinned around that strike it's a 3835 strike, but most of the open interest, and you can see this by going into the s&p option says around the 3800 point. dealers are long about 3$300 billion going into this expiration. >> pretty fascinating. as far as the data goes and the prints, what had the bigger effect, the backward look inflation data or some of the micro corporate results and guidance, and to be frank cost to savings mesh e measures>> i hike expectations going up, and i think it's a reminder, you know, inflation is still a problem in our day-to-day lives, even though the fed has managed

to convince the market that inflation expectations will fall in the future, you can see easing the inflation-protected bond markets, the tips markets, all even curves, even one year forward today's -- the pc was still above 4.7, the market is expecting inflation to dramatically fall in the future. i think it's a great opportunity for investors to add more inflation protection into their portfolio. i question whether or not we're near the peak confident, whether it's going to fix the labor market or the supply-side issues >> fascinating nancy, what a session. we'll see how it wraps up here in a few minutes thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. meantime, we're any "closing bell" market zone. we're going to break down some of the crucial moments

>> carl, in addition to all those mechanical things that nancy was taking about, i see it as psych microco. going on. >> so we don't know how fast it's going to be, and therefore we remained kind of sticky around this area, and just intraday, tesla stopped going down around 12:30. within an hour, the s&p

bottomed the santa claus period that we keep talking about, actually begins tomorrow, probably a reason you wouldn't want to be leaning too negative going into the close. >> yes, we have already gotten one mention of santa and milk cartons and ar cashin already this morning the latest tech company undergoing layoffs that restructuring is, in part, in response to weak are pc demand the rest of the semi space also selling heart. major players like nvidia, and amd took a strong step lower i'm thinking of what cramer said earlier this morning, that the micron call, in his words, was seminally bad. would you go that far?

>> i don't think expectations were to be great, but it certainly was not great. seminally bad? it's pretty bad. things are getting worse demand across a variety of ven markets has already been weak, looks like it's getting worse. micron is doing a layoff i think even the executives are taking a salary cut. that doesn't happen unless things are not great >> how far can gross margin fall where do you think that troughs out? >> i don't cover micron. it's a colleague of mine, but gross margin -- at the end of the day they guided gross margins 8.5port? it's a function of utilization and price. it sounds like both those things are going down not micron, but we have seen other players, most players that aren't necessarily around nanny more, but we have seen it get

very bad in general, they can go negative i don't know if they'll do it for micron, hopesfully not, but it's not unheard of. >> mike santoli, at least one research report said, started to talk about the notion of inventory write-offs, not declaring or predicting, but just saying, what if >> that's the next potentially wave that i think people are braced for the other end is the game theory are trying to play this phase of the cycle. if you see bigger competitors investing, you have to figure all that out, right? >> this is part of it. like, the idea that micron is cutting cap ex, they have already said they expected cap ex -- or quip -- equipment will be down. there's been worry that sam suns is not going along those lines

so some of this also could be sign signaling. it's not so much that they cut the position they want in fits cat 24 though the equipment spending would be down in '23. so i think nobody knows what 24 will look like but they might as well set it low, and there might be some signaling going on there >> as you said visibility in the cycle, not a long duration. >> at this point you might as well set things low. they've been cutting, cutting, and cutting. it hasn't been a knock you have to at some point set the barlow enough where they don't have to cut anymore. >> thank you, guys cloud stock exchange among the big losers today as well frank holland joins us to talk

about how much is related to rates. >> general rate pressure, not today rate pressure. obviously david tepper's comments that everybody should believe the fed and calling christine lagarde a grizzly bear are just realistic, because we haven't heard any indications that the fed has plans of course, as always, when we look at the wcld, it moves inseriously to the a different part of the cloud sector we don't often talk about lowers levels since notify 2020. we also heard from investors themselves in general there's two choices when it comes to the cloud and enterprise stocks. either we know exactly what -- or you can do what multiple

venters do we've heard that that foreign minister analysts, one focus sent simply enough it's not rate pressure today there's still about 50 basis points from the high we saw this year back in october. >> pretty interesting, mike. cloud is one of those areas where the street is trying to get ciritical. >> there's probably not enough in the way of buying interest, but it can create a general sense of support at least against the stuff that's really gotten washington out. i think that's a fair theme. there will be lucky justice -- ones that good taken out it is to me about just how much demand goes down that obviously is a sign of

customers having more power than the vendors do the ten-year has been flat since late september at these levels, and these stocks have still been heavy. >> that's a good point frank, thank you very much check out retail today, as we go into the final days of the christmas holiday. mickey drexler on "squawk" today. >> most of the goods were placed nine months ago. business was good then there were supply chain issues then, which there are no longer. i think all of us got too ebu el yen about the future

and therefore inventory declined, so i'm not very optimistic. >> dana, great to see you. mickey said he was warned by his friend not to get too negative, but then went into a litany of how they were too aggressive. >> nice to be with you, carl i agree. i think the theme of 23, expecting the unexpected requires agility the first half of the year you're still going to be plagued by the negative impacts of consumer spending, and all these companies are marking down to move goods you'll have some goods continue into the first half of 2023. it's not until the second half of the year that margins stabilize. it is a tough road i think 2023 guidance will show the reality.

>> they've already said so much. target is a great example, dana, where they got inventory wrong, made steps to correct it what is the mood then this ordering season? where is the line between clearing out inventory, but making sure you have enough inventory if things do recover >> the numbers i'm hearing from my network, overall, orders from the wholesale accounts could be down as much as 10% to 15%, in order to come back to a better margin i think there's a difference between the companies and the stocks a lot of the stocks you have seen in our consumer world, they're down 30%, 40%, 50%, so the valuations are already discounting the risk in there. >> so ladder it for us at the moment soft lines, hard lines, home improvement, what are your favorites? >> i want to be in value and i said to be in brands

brands like ralph lauren will continue to grow under price ulta will benefit from the strength, both in makeup and in skin care. i think of companies like deckers whose innovation continue to show appeal. and tjxx and wall matt, those will win >> is the clover all-mood going to be too depoliting >> luxury overall, that consumer always has more to spend even now we're talking about the rate of growth mod rating, but more importantly, it's continuing to grow there's big opportunities from the reopening of china, and luxury trades at such great margins, and it leads them to continue to have, in my mind, a better to 23, especially if

china reopens. >> dana, thanks as always, great to get your take mike, it brings to minute the nugget of good news with nike, though others argued they're essentially a one-off. >> to a agree, yeah, that category seems to be one of the bright spots what dana was alluding to, some of the stocks that pulled the pain forward 678 like a best buy, often a cheap stock, continues to look cheap, 0.4 sales ratio -- price-to-sales ratio. clearly it took a lot of punishment on the way down the retail stocks haven't waited around to see that things fuel apart. mike, we'll see you in a few minutes in "overtime."

dow 33,000, s&p back do 3822, giving back some ground, but billionaire david tepper talking about his view and how essentially, especially lagarde has forced him to lean short in the equities. >> i would say i'm probably leaning short on the equity markets right now. i think the upside/downside, when there's so many people telling me what they're expected to do. >> tepper has been pretty adept at simplifying the message from central banks it worked for him on the up side with qe now he appears to be playing the opposite view. does that all make sentence to you? don't fight the fed.

how many times have you heard that over the past decades it's true, we've been trying to play defense since really march or april you know, we're not having conversations at the investment strategy committee level how we're going to hide more or getting more defensive i think we're good where we are with that, but we would expect more market downside here. what we are talking about here is, what do we do in anticipation of the economy recovering what is the timing on that when do we get interested in small-cap stocks, consumers discretionary sector we've had a bit of difficulty pinpointing when the recession is going to start. we certainly think we'll have one. so for us we're not trying to get more defensive we're looking for when we'll get more assertive. >> i think the way you're

describing that process kind of takes you back to the october low, where people did give small caps a second look i wonder if you think that will be instructive in q1 >> you have to look at levels. my entire career has been based on fundamentals and tech always. the october lows, that's one spot really, if you look below that, i would argue somewhere in the 3250 to 3270 range those are spots we think the market could definitely -- but i think one key, carl, for us, big key, is that we expect to see inflation come down pretty quickly next year, we expect the fed, maybe 75 or 100 basis points in terms of hiking. i don't think that's out of whack with what the market has

been expecting we expected fed to cut 75 basis points in response to this moderate recession that's the track we're looking at, as far as over the next six, eight months >> that view on rate cuts, what do you say to david tepper telling you they're not going to do that? >> if you look at the fed's record, they're not that good a projecting what thee they're going to do. you know well that that can change at any time so we're trying to figure out what are the fundamentals going to be. if imp flation is not going to come down -- we're expecting a reaction to that moderate -- we

thing we're pretty close to that well, you know, 5% is pretty much what the market has been expecting. >> i think the market -- if you think the market turns normally higher, and you think the recession may -- well, then maybe you start to get more interesting. if you wait until the skies are clear, the market will be higher >> thank you very much scott wren, we appreciate it we did defend some important levels really did start this morning with a mix of macro and david

pepper, leading indicator down nine straight months, in addition to the sort of commentary we said let's get over to "overtime" with mike santoli. [ bell ringing ] >> thank you, carl i'm in for scott wapner. we are just getting started. we begin with our talk of the tape a bit of a rough day for wall street stocks pulling back. though well off their lows of the day, tech taking it the hardest. the index is on pace for the third straight week of losses.