good morning futures pointing to a rebound after the dow fell by 1% in yesterday's session. that was about half. it came back from lows down more than 700 we will talk about the odds of a santa claus straight ahead. sam bankman-fried freed on $250 million bond as he awaits trial on fraud charges. elon musk is not selling tesla stock after two years after a rough week. it is friday, december 23rd. christmas eve eve. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning

welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. let's look at the u.s. equity futures. we have been flat this morning, but now you can see the futures have picked up dow up 115 s&p up 13. nasdaq up by 43 as we come crashing into the end of the week this is after the down day from the markets yesterday. the dow down 350 points. s&p down 1.5%. the nasdaq down by 2% as joe mentioned we came off our lows of the session there was concern when better than expected economic numbers made investors think about what the fed will do. yesterday, we spoke to david tepper, who thinks he is short equities he believes the central banks when they say they are raising rates and leaving rates higher

for longer he said he is looking short on the credit market and short on the equities at the same time. >> labor was everything to this thesis a lot of positive things in certain parts of the inflation picture. one place in his view where he is not seeing it is wages and labor. the sticky labor market than before they will continue to have to go both stay higher longer and get to a higher point to cure this. i think what shook david is lagarde. >> the 50 basis points next time around the europeans were behind us they have more catch up to do. >> they have a much shakier foundation to do this and problems with energy maybe the winter won't be as

bad. people just assume they don't talk soft landing in europe. >> they are already in recession. >> to see inflation is much worse. did you see that organization? that organization cracks me up >> what did i miss >> jackie cavanaugh was on the other day. she said unemployment needs to go higher to allow the fed to finally relax. it's on drudge it is left of the huffington post oh, my god unemployment has to go up to cure our ills. we have been saying that for years. >> central bankers are coming back to the true stripes their job is to knock out

inflation. we have not seen inflation on this, not on an global scale, and they are concerned and getting back to the priority wipe out inflation first everybody suffers when inflation goes up. the people at the lowest end of the spectrum suffer most >> is there something above natural employment levels? >> below >> above maximum employment. >> right >> that to me is an oxymoron if you have 3.5%, i guess that's the baseline number for people never going to be working, i guess. it doesn't seem like it. it doesn't saeem like you can gt above maximum employment unless you are at zero. >> people will not work and people who choose not to work because they have other options. >> if it youyou are above --

>> if you are laying out lots of money and given people other alternatives, then you will have an unnatural situation treasury yields. i didn't see them. if you did, you see 10-year treasury at 3.7. higher for the yields today. 3.704%. the senate approved the $1.7 trillion funding bill yesterday to avert the -- shutdown mitch mcconnell called it strong the gop is falling back on the defense spending which was $40 billion more than what president biden was asking for if you calculate above discretionary. depending on we don't need to decide guns and butter here. a lot of people say that's

crazy. we are spending more on defense than trying to help domestically with all of the issues we have we have issues domestically. when you look at what's transpired in the past 300 days, you realize not only do we need defenses >> and given what we are giving others to defend themselves. >> i hope we never have to use these things you know, you have to be polly-anna-ish to think we don't need that. sam bankman-fried was released in $250 million bond while awaiting fraud and other charges. we have mackenzie sigalos with more people are surprised he got bail it is still a big chunk of change >> on the face, it is.

you know, a source close to the sam bankman-fried team told me a short time ago that he is wheels down flying commercial back home to california back to the point about the $250 million number, in theory, it is the largest for pre-trial bail in u.s. history. the arrangement lacks teeth. his parents put up their home as collateral a former prosecutor described it as an empty promise. other conditions are he cannot open lines of credit above $1,000 he has to submit to mental health counselling he had his passport confiscated and he will be living with his parents in their palo alto home. it is a small set of demands for a years long, brazen fraud

against his investors and customers. bilking them out of $8 billion guys >> do the authorities in bahamas say what the heck? 12k3w4r >> i think a lot of people are confused with the bail arrangement. prosecutors had the case to make he is a flight risk. he doesn't belong to any u.s. jurisdiction if anything, he has been living in the bahamas there are a lot of people questioning whether or not the claim of $100,000 to his name is actually true because there is still billions of dollars in missing cash people want to know where that is and on top of that, 2$250 millio bond is not what you think it is if he flees, that is the only thing his parents stand to lose. that doesn't have much teeth >> were there two other people who signed off on this

two wealthy individuals signed off on this. >> four people co-signed that bond i saw in the filing in the court do docket, it is three family members and one unnamed party. the main terms at the moment. >> the prosecutors signed off on this, too. >> we haven't heard from damian williams has been aggressive and moved quickly on the indictments. he is talking to sam bankman-fried's top brass from the alameda empire i have not seen comments related to the bail agreement. he landed with this already in place. they had been back channelling for days before he left the bahamas. unclear why they weren't harder on him as soon as he got back to u.s. soil, all of his leverage was gone. >> that's what i don't get was it something they offered to

lure him back from the bahamas since the bahamas was not giving him bail or was this decision out of the prosecutors' hands? we will find out more. thank you. >> thanks, becky tesla at 125 125 is what it closed yesterday. it was going down $10 every day. i wonder if we will find out with the big selloff >> he sold more than $40 billion. it would be odd if he hadn't disclosed that >> it would be odd if it was everybody else selling short sellers are basically getting killed over shorting tesla. $15 billion in profits at this

point. moo elon musk will pause selling shares in tesla for a minimum of 18 to 24 months. he said he would not sell any next year under any circumstances or probably not the year after musk said a decision on the buyback of the company stock could be influenced by the severity of the economic downturn the comments were the most direct response to investors that he has been distracted since he bought twitter. tesla stock plunged 60% this year distracted that's one thing being a huge seller, the seller of the shares is a bigger deal than distracted. this was a pretty big deal twitter. 70% of the top 100 ad spenders have not spent on the platform as of the weeke ending december

18th >> he slashed staff and you lose that revenue -- that's a tough game. >> it's not that he can't do it. i would never sell him short, so to speak, but he has to bring back advertisers and stabilize the business he has cool ideas. click on ads to buy things. >> they added things analytics straight in it that you could not see before the point yesterday was for everybody who likes or comments on your post, there are 100 others that read it. that is why the analytics box is there. you have to dig around deeper. he is convinced his twitter account is key for the company's fortunes and future. i think it might do better if he toned down on some of the stuff. i get it when he weighs in on

issues of the town square. advertisers are afraid with the unk unknown. >> and i would give him leeway >> you spend $44 billion on something. >> i have this job, but as a person, there are certain things i would say that are not related. >> agree you will not scare away advertisers. >> i might >> no one care whs what we say. >> luckily we got -- >> we are the peanut gallery we can get away with the smart alec comments. with great power comes great responsibility we don't have any great power. >> i fall back on knuckle head and dufus. you can use a lot without getting -- there are soft insults. >> yeah. >> after being totally -- it's

not reciprocal the insults that come. >> silly face. >> this was terrible news. >> we just saw him this came as a shot to us. we want to remember a frequent squawk guest scott minerd suffered a heart attack during a workout. he spent 25 years with g guggenheim partners. big friend of the show. >> lots of money to the mission. he said god tapped him on the shoulder and said you got to do more for people. >> he did. >> he will be missed he was a good friend of the show. >> condolences to his family

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futures right now are bouncing back a little after what was the market which did not close on the lows. it came back into the close. let's talk about markets with ross mayfield. ross is the analyst at baird under management at this point with that portfolio. michael, i don't know if you saw david tepper's comments yesterday. it is what it is interest rates are headed higher that hurts multiples and slows down the economy which impacts earnings it is not an ideal situation is there anything we're missings in terms of the second

derivative that things in certain areas are improving to see light at the end of the tunnel that is not an approaching freight train? >> i did see what david said yesterday. there are spots in the market that you could be selective in i'm in the camp and we have been fairly negative for most of the area especially in tech and discretionary. those are tough places staples and healthcare, you can jump in there selectively and look for spots that will hold up and then where the consumer is not stretched. super high credit card debt and cash balances. we are cautious for the next six months. >> michael, is the consumer still solid? does the fed say we have more work to do or are there signs of the consumer cracking? >> i see the consumer cracking

the high levels of debt and low levels of cash balances. data of 24% year over year increase in 401(k) hardship loan withdrawals. it is different from the consumer being strong. we have the tendency to spend more than we should. the consumer is cracking overextended with the home prices coming down, we will get the money. it is not 401(k) loans you will not get home equity money out of your house. it is not what you need. it is what you want. >> ross, 40 years. we had low inflation, basically, and friendly monetary policies at least for the last 15 should we just accept that and with stocks, if you are looking for 5% to 6% annual or if you

could get 4% risk free for two years in a two-year note, let's chuck it and go into these notes and not worry about the stock market should people be doing that? >> i wouldn't say don't worry about the stock market all together together for the first time there is a real look for capital. you can get really good yield on high quality credit. treasuries or in the high quality corporate or something like commodities which sold off as of late to the extent the markets are tight on the supply side, just another asset class in the last 18 months that could provide competition for capital. if inflation is sticky at 3% or

4% long term and the supply shortage and labor market keeps inflation higher than the fed wants, then that keeps rates higher than we're used to. i think it represents a regime shift from the last decade to the next decade could be at least in the near term. >> we don't need latin america or zimbabwe-type inflation to where it hasn't effect on financial assets 3% or 4% sustained i guess i could see that if the labor market really is, you know, different than what we're used to. there are a lot of reasons to think maybe it is. if it sticks in the labor market at 3% or 4%, that might be enough to keep the tfed tightening for the near future >> if you listen to chairman powell, they are focused on the

labor department they are concerned about the pre-pandemic trends. it is a combination of early retirement and people on the sideline for covid and lack of immigration. whatever it is, we're short millions of workers. that results in wage growth that is incompatible with the 2% target they know that and they will not change the 2% inflation target that is a credibility issue. to the extent this is a problem for years and it is a multi-year problem and not a month problem. you will see inflation under 2% or over 2% that represents a totally different regime rates are stickier and higher than last decade that changes the total investment landscape competition for capital and fixed equity you have to get used to a new environment. >> it is what it is. that's what tepper was saying.

you basically said the same thing. it is a perfect storm. in europe, inflation is different, but sticky. not necessarily our labor situation. it's like everything turned at once makes it tough for stocks. thank you, both. michael and ross merry christmas. happy holidays let's have a productive new year it's always happy if we're on this planet. all relative, i guess. >> we're all decked out. >> those are christmas guitars >> i thought it was santa claus. >> i should have said yes. christmas guitars. is there such a thing? >> maybe depends. >> beautiful vineyard vines. thousands of flooights canceled in the united states.

we will get a check on the airports in the hour. and norad is tracking santa claus for the 62nd year. it's early he's not out yet we'll see. , recently went through a divorce. she had a lot of questions when she came in. i watched my mother go through being a single mom. at the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself. and so once the client knew that she was heard. we were able to help her move forward. your client won't care how much you know until they know how much you care.

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airlines have canceled thousands of flights this week as winter storms and the cold interrupted holiday travel flight aware reports 2,600 flights canceled yesterday and more than 3,000 have been canceled this morning. the biggest disruption at chicago's airports and denver international airport. today's disruption expected at

laguardia and chicago's midway we want to welcome navy rear admiral with the u.s. northern command and aerospace defense command or known as norad. norad is tracking santa's flight from the north pole for the 67th year good to see you, admiral is santa's flight safe >> are you serious, clark? >> good morning. absolutely safe. he has a flawless report he is all weather. >> have you been getting updates? do you have to wait for the sleigh to leave the ground >> affirmative we are getting updates and getting ready to track with satellites everything is ready to go. we should be good to go. we depend north america 365 days a a year 24/7. we track santa

our favorite mission. >> can you share his expected route or is that top secret? >> i can share it in general he does change depending on weather and other factors. he is very flexible. he will start from the pole and head west and go around that way. we're ready for that >> because this is -- is this thing -- again, once in a century. >> the west side highway was under water. in all of the years i've been driving -- >> at least this is not christmas eve when this is happening, right admiral >> very true it is minus 10 outside that is no problem for fighters and what we do at norad. >> admiral, what time should we watch? how do we check in. >> if you want to check in at

8 8 8 877 877-4462 that is where we get happy kids. i'm happy i'll answer the phone for kids on the 24th excited about that as well >> admiral, all of the cheevers are related. are you related to john? are you related to these people? >> maybe in a big stretch of a way. not directly i wish i was related directly to john cheever >> i know roger, when i asked him, if he was related to john specifically fingers are crossed here i can't imagine the wait is there more than one i see a lot of them.

helpers? >> yeah. the elves are the helpers. they are officially signed on. >> that's how it works, admiral? >> absolutely. he has plenty of help. we have plenty of trackers this is what we do all year long we are excited about it. no issues for us. >> we are worried about the chimneys chimney sweeps i have a lot of concerns, admiral. >> that's where that magic comes in and santa will be just fine he has it all factored in. >> excellent i feel better. >> thank you, admiral cheever. merry christmas. >> are you serious, clark? cousin eddie, the great randy quaid, said do you think i've been type cast because of cousin eddie? it takes from "king pin.

i realize he was funny i said that is the most loved and iconic i would never worry. >> he follows you? >> he does he doesn't respond very often. coming up, oil prices are down 24% from six monthsing go we will talk about energy next and where prices could be headed in the new year. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking futures christmas green, i guess. >> red would be christmas, too >> perfect cover all of our bases christmas red and green. oh, there's red on the nasdaq. fair value that is better than yesterday and by the close yesterday, it was better than midday down 700 points >> almost 800. >> gdp was strong. >> strong economic data played into what david tepper said. you saw future fall quickly after his comments >> i forgot about a couple of his calls. >> going back?

>> in 2010, qe what goes up, everything goes up the ten year stayed. we thought it would be 3%. it stayed quiet and the market did well >> it is simplistic view i don't know why the rest of us have been so argumentative with it the fed is wrong >> i think transitory. i still think inflation is transitory maybe i'll be converted. >> the novel idea is to believe them and think they are telling the truth. >> i was alive in volcker and i wanted him to believe he was too high i would have been like arthur burns. the other guy that didn't want it i would have probably been a stop and start person to make it worse.

>> it made such a huge toll on the economy. >> it was. >> deep recession. >> shock and autowe to try to s inflation. it is really hard to walk in and ask for a raise after that happens. >> i have feet of clay now the idea of kill the housing market and kill the consumer and kill the stock market. kill the industry. it is opposite of what we like to do. if we could do it with the supply side -- >> that takes years. inflation is a horrible tapeworm that eats everything. >> people that do are out of money before the next paycheck. turning to energy. we have been watching wti. if you check it out, you see crude oil prices up 1.8% on wti.

brent crude up 1.8%. it has been brutal for equities. that pushed the spdr energy up 50% by the year to date. in 2022, crude oil climbed 5% and natural gas was a big gainer it was pushed higher by the wash on ukraine and the moscow and energy crisis in europe. here in the united states, gasoline prices have gbegun to fall from peak levels. down from the june all-time high of $5. joining us with her outlook of the energy markets is amrita sen. amrita, you are convinced we are looking at higher energy prices next year. >> i maintain that view, becky what has happened for crude oil

this year is we had more oil hit the market that has been taken out with the huge spr release from governments around the world and particularly the u.s at the end of the year, we were hit with more lockdowns in china and unexpected strikes in france which made the market collapse we had a lot of year-end liquidation. we are getting into the year with clean positioning and very few people are active in the market the embargo has just kicked in on russian crude we are tracking russian exports falling a fair bit already i'm sure you have seen the deputy prime minister come out from early next year that russia play have to cut 500,000 barrels a day. right now, covid is rampant in

china, but it will be huge. >> that is the concern how quickly they can get back to dem dema demand what is your view? >> the second quarter from april onwards. our calculations are people will still travel for the lunar new year this is the first time in three years they can do so you may start to see from march onwards. gradual reopening and gaining momentum in q2 it will be strong given how many people will travel i keep talking about this. the multiplier effect. not just china korea, 25% of the petrol depends on china that's where i think we will get the big demand push. the multiplier effect in the

region the u.s. west coast with 70% of the international flights. you will see that once china does reopen. >> amrita, thank you we appreciate everything you have done for us this year happy holidays >> likewise. coming up, google warning workers more of them are at risk for poor performance reviews details after this break. plus, the omnibus spending bill passing the senate d an heading to the house we will speak to senator chris coons at 8:10 a.m. we're coming right back. ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected.

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by cnbc. shape up you google employees. google estimates 6% of full-time workers will fall to a low-ranking category which puts them at higher risk for corrective action versus 2% before they raised the standards. google estimates 22% of employees will be rated one of the highest categories versus 27% before there have been grades on a curve. they avoided layoffs that hit other tech companies at the all-hands meeting, workers raised fears of the new system might be a way to reduce head count yeah that's the idea. coming up, more than 3,000 flights canceled in the u.s. as the winter weather disrupts holiday travel

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airlines have canceled thousands of flights as winter storms and bitter cold disrupted holiday travel we have catie beck in arlington, virginia >> reporter: it is a messy gamble in the airport world today. yesterday, we hadn't seen the

weather fully take hold yet. now it is a different story. we know there is over 5,000 flights canceled already and more to come today as the temperatures start to plummet. we know the bulk of them coming out of chicago more than 1,200 flights out of chicago alone have been canceled. seeing folks come up to the departure board and sighs of relief here in washington, d.c., as most flights were on time that is not the case today again, that weather has now taken hold and all of the hubs and connected flights are being affected by this storm that is hits on the worst possible time, the two busiest travel days, thursday and friday, of the holiday season, yesterday and today. more than seven million passengers expected to fly and, again, so much travel cancellations and delays people are facing the airlines yesterday waiving what i think fees in hopes that people would change your flights to earlier and get ahead of some of this weather. it's too late to do that now so they are urging folks to

really be diligent about checking your phone before you leave the airport and be sure to pack extra clothes and snacks, be prepared to wait if you have somewhere to be because the airlines are going to see massive delays and cancellations moving forward today. >> whatever it takes i go past newark airport and the weather was unbelievable this huge plane flew over us i thought, this is the most incredible technology. it's not all about sight they have so many instruments to know exactly what they're doing. to do it 50,000 times a day, it's just god bless them, they're amazing. in times like this, you got to cut them some slack because we still have very few -- >> absolutely. >> very safe, very safe. >> reporter: absolutely, and the deicing technology that we have and airlines are out there using that we can see them hourly deicing these planes and getting things ready to go. there are a bulk of flights that are taking off

as you said, that is some amazing technology that we are seeing planes land given the fact that we are seeing temperatures in washington, d.c., plummet 30 degrees so, yes, i agree, it is pretty amazing. >> katie, thank you. merry christmas. happy holidays this winter storm marks the third disrupted christmas in a row following the covid christmas of 2020 and last year's emergence of the omicron variant. here with more on travel demand and expectations for the new year, mike brown, president and ceo of travel and leisure company. we got to deal -- i'm going to start using what david tepper said it is what it is we had covid, omicron and now we have this bad weather. but hope springs eternal people are going to travel >> i think if we've learned anything in 2022, we know leisure travel is very resilient. we thought we would get the revenge travel and then it would

slow down. we thought after the summer with all the macro news, leisure travel would slow down, and it hasn't the good thing about this storm is it will pass very quickly as we heard 30 minutes ago. so be patient. your previous guest said it, pack your patience be prepared. download your airline app and you'll get to where you need to get to and have a great holiday season >> is it possible, mike, that we are permanently in love with travel more than before the pandemic, that there's not, like, a certain amount of pent-up demand that's going to be worked off and then we'll be back to normal >> i think if anything, 2022 proved that leisure travel and spending time with people away from the workplace is paramount to people's not only enjoyment but just where they put it on their priority list. we've seen this big new trend of

work from anywhere and working where their family is traveling. it has been a big change not only in how people are traveling, but that that leisure demand, no matter what the headline says, has been very consistent and we're already seeing it in the early parts of 2023, that people are going to continue to travel. >> if you were, like, a big investor, would you invest in things in the united states, grand canyon, florida the ozarks, or back to -- where do you people want to go? africa i don't know is it back is traveling on these real exotic vacations back all the way? >> well, the good thing for travel and leisure is we're wherever we have resorts all around the world. for 2023, the early indications is that domestic travel is still going to lead the way. the long haul travel, the growth rate next year is going to be faster it's still lagging

people are wanting to stay where they can control their environment. control the cost associated with the -- in this rising inflation environment. so people are staying closer to home we have seen a bit more of the mid haul, the caribbean, mexico, hawaii but the long haul is still lagging. we hope that returns after it passes, whenever this recession does come. >> what have you factored into the macroeconomic outlook for 2023 and if there's a slowdown, but not a sharp slowdown, you don't expect it, necessarily, to be impacted. >> in our space, we've been through 9/11, the great financial crisis and now covid and we have seen an incredible resiliency in our space. i think there's the belief that leisure travel is overly correlated with the headline use on economic conditions and you said it at the beginning here,

people just want to get away, enjoy time with the ones they love and so, yes, i do think that leisure travel will continue to be strong. i think it will continue to push aside to a great extent the headlines that are coming, and people are going to go on vacation and, again, if the first quarter reservations that we have on your books is any indication, people are going to continue to travel into 2023 >> rvs should i expect we're going to have big percentage gains in those too? is camping world -- people waiting in line to buy something there? >> well, i would say -- it gets back to the comment about us seeing a rise in mid haul travel, there was this time where this -- these stay at home stocks and products were really in demand. we have seen a bit of a cooling in that space. people are wanting a little

further afield even if it's not the full long haul i would say it's more going to be destination travel for 2023 >> okay. mike, thanks bengals are finally winning. that might be a different mike brown, i guess -- >> yeah. >> never mind. >> it is, but they are winning just like leisure travel >> that's why you make the big bucks. when we come back, sam bankman-fried out on bail while he awaits trial. we've got the details straight ahead. and later, it is crunch time for retailers. we will bring you some potential portfolio picks in the next hour

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good morning futures pointing to a higher open that follows yet another big drop for the major averages yesterday. the s&p on pace for its longest weekly losing streak since september. sam bankman-fried, emphasis on freeze. he's allowed to stay with his parents after a judge says he's not a flight risk. he had to post a nine-figure bond it's the ho-ho-home stretch for the retail sector. who is in a position to come out

a winner we've got that and much more as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. and andrew is off today. equity futures are in the green. a mini santa claus rally going up the dow up 61 points, the nasdaq up 15 and the s&p up just under 6 and that reverses some sharp losses yesterday but it wasn't as bad as it was in the middle of the day when it was all said and done. treasuries, 3.70 now we've seen kind of a move from under 3.5 up to 3.7 and a lot of that happened after the boj

followed along with the ecb. what if you just tuned in -- >> i would keep clicking click, click, click. the bank of japan along with the european central bank, the bank of england -- >> coordinated rate increases. >> you should really stop. if you're clicking through and you don't know these things, let us explain it. could help you out. >> once you start, you'll never stop. >> you'll never go back. the house expected to vote on a nearly $1.7 trillion government funding bill today after the measure passed the senate yesterday senny hoyer is saying that his chairman will take up the bill this morning it's expected to pass hours before a government shutdown would begin. the bill provides 45 billions in aid to ukraine and it bans tiktok from government devices

and it is trying to beat a repeat from last year when president trump tried to overturn the election. and we're tracking santa's track and the impact of the huge winter storm life-threatening cold blanketing much of the country. according to flight aware, more than 3,000 flights within, into or out of the u.s. have already been canceled. today the biggest disruptions, yesterday, came at chicago's two main airports and denver international airport. those three, i mean, that says it all the two in chicago and the one in denver -- >> and o'hare, denver. the the spoke system >> today's biggest disruptions expected to be at laguardia, detroit and, again, at chicago

midway. >> let's get over to dom chu he's been taking a look at this morning's premarket movers it's a little muted ahead of the holiday, but there are some things that are on the move. what are you watching? >> we're watching some of the rebounds from yesterday. we'll start things off with a check on what's happening with tesla. it is catching a bid in the premarket to the tune of 1 to 1.5% now this is driven in part by ceo elon musk saying that he would refrain from selling any more tesla stock until at least quote 2025 or something. musk spoke in a twitter space's chat event adding his vote would be to do a share buyback from the company once the company is able to calibrate the scale of the recession. shares of tesla are down 44% since musk agreed to buy twitter. tesla was the worst performing stock in the s&p 500 in yesterday's sell-off session. you have meta platforms, the parent company of facebook,

instagram, what's up is up fractionally right now 25,000 shares of volume. meta is agreeing to pay $725 million to resolve a class action lawsuit for allowing companies to access user's personal data. it's the most that meta has ever paid to resolve a class action suit and we'll end with a check on the most embattled part of the stock market in yesterday's sell-off and that's the semiconductor business you have nvidia, amd, lam research, applied materials, among the hardest hit in yesterday's trade. kla, no trading volume so far. but the others each down marginally following up on bigger losses yesterday. keep an eye on the chip stocks i'll send things back over to

you. >> thanks. less than 90 minutes away from some key inflation data and steve liesman joins us now to talk about what we should be watching got a red tie on sometimes you have an open collar on friday not very often, though, leaseman, right? >> i do the tie when there's important data if it was a chill day and we were yakking, i wouldn't have a tie on. >> with the kind of data we've been getting, could you try it without a tie? >> mix it up a little? >> mix it up maybe that will help out joe, we did -- don't get mad at me for what about to say you got mad at me when i was talking about the, you know -- dismally about the data. the harsh reality is this, the best hope for markets this morning is inflation that comes in below expectations and consumer spending that's also weaker than expected and you can see that in

yesterday's sell-off sparked by better than expected gdp data, making clear this market is processing good economic use as bad which means more fed rate hikes for longer if the economy doesn't slow i wonder if david tepper's sober talk was part of that. while good growth numbers are bad, good inflation news is good we've had a series of better than expected cpi consumer price inflation numbers. we'll wait and see if that happens today with the pce index. that's the fed's preferred indicator. core pce prices up 0.2 because we're dropping out higher numbers in the past, the year should fall from 4.6 to 5%. there's differences between how the numbers are calculated it has economists believing the pce could be hotter than expected

he does not see easing until the labor market eases and the other side of the coin, the growth side of the equation, consumer spending and income expected to be lower than october which is unfortunately good 0.3 v 0.3 versus 0.7 what the market wants to see i guess is what the fed wants to see, declining inflation and easing growth that creates economic slack and helps inflation come down, joe. >> steve, we're talking again, earlier. 2% seems awfully low can't we -- does it half to be two? can give you 3 1/2 i'll give you 3 1/2? how about 3 1/2? we can live on 3 1/2 >> do you know the old joke about forecasters, they say give them a date or give them a number but don't give them both at the same time

>> yeah. >> i don't think the fed is going to change its number what it might do is be relatively -- what's the right word chill about it coming down at a specific time. sanguine is another word you could use. they may get to 3 1/2, 4 1/2 and say, this is okay for now. we believe it will come down over time. they can't for credibility reasons change that. what powell said when he was asked about it is, we may want to do that in the future but we have to hit our goal first before we change the benchmark. you know, 3%, i think, is -- you have to ask yourself, maybe what you want to do, joe, is talk to some of the ceos you talked to and say, what's it like running the business at 3%, 4% inflation? i think it's tough i think it's easier with lower inflation to plan, to forecast and to run your business in a

better way and i think that's the reason why the fed has that 2% number in there and i guess we can have a social debate, i guess, is what it ends up being, about what the right level or right target is for the central bank. >> they can raise prices if the consumer is okay, then, you know, they pass it along and everything is fine. >> but then they have people coming in and asking for raises. >> negotiations go from there. >> we're trying to slow the economy. consumers are going to be less likely to absorb the 3% increases. it's all this -- i don't know. i'm glad we just talk about it. >> i just want to -- if i could just pass along one of the more surprising things to me this year was, if you notice the unemployment rate was very, very low this year, 3 1/2, 3.7, and we kept doing our all america economic surveys, people were in a foul, foul mood because inflation was high even though unemployment was low. so you ask about what kind of

world the public wants to live in, the public wants to live in a low inflation world. if not, they're going to be in a lousy mood and it's not going to be the kind of world that they want so to me, i was surprised at how the unemployment rate and the decent job market we had did not lift sentiment, but the high inflation numbers made everybody be in a negative mood. that to me is instructive of, you can choose as a society what inflation number you want, but it seems clear to me that the public and america wants a low inflation world. >> all right, steve. thanks >> i like what steve said. they got to hit their goal before they move the goalpost. >> exactly. let's get back to the broader markets. the s&p on base for yet another down week. but some investors are holding out hope for a santa claus rally. joining us right now is stephanie link, portfolio manager at hightower a cnbc contributor a true definition of a santa claus rally is one that takes

place between christmas and new year's so the downtime that we're seeing right now might make it look better for that happening, if we were really strong this week, it would probably be less likely >> it's entirely possible, becky, because seasonally, this is the time when the markets usually do pretty good it's obviously lower volume as people do travel but i also think that there's a lot of defensive positioning this year. even more so than normal and so hopefully we can get a rally. the problem is, i'm not sure it can last, i think we're going to be in this choppy trading range. kind of felt like that for the last several months because we just don't know what the impact is going to be in terms of the fed rate hikes and the lag impact that all being said, i feel a little bit better about where we are in the economy just given all the data we've seen over the last couple of weeks it's not all gloom and doom and

i feel like everybody is gloom and doom it's almost to the point of how -- like, how many times can we sell off on the same bad news of the fed and of inflation and of a slowing economy i'm trying to look for opportunities, even though, i think we're probably going to be in a choppy environment. >> i like your point the santa claus rally doesn't really matter to an average investor who is in this for the long term. the only people who care about it are managers who are trying to outflank the benchmark for the end of the year. >> i'm there. >> i get that. your point about thinking that maybe the doom and gloom has hit a peak, at least temporarily, this is going to be an ebb and flow, i liked what you said about how tepper didn't concerned you all that much yesterday. it's not surprising to have a hedge fund manager who is going to be short on equities, short on bonds that's his job as a hedge fund manager. but you see some bright spots.

a couple consumer names, nike, starbucks are two that you like. what makes you think that the consumer is going to hang in. >> first and foremost, the savings rate is still at about 3% wages are going higher and inflation is coming down that's actually a good thing, right? everyone all year long has been saying, well, wages are going up, but inflation is so high so the purchasing power for consumers is really not what you think it is. and i actually do believe very strongly that the consumer is in really good shape and it's really been a bad bet to bet against the consumer we're a nation of spenders believe it or not, if we have to take on debt or not. so i do think, though, that jobs remain strong and obviously we know that's what the fed is focused on, jobs and wages but the fact of the matter is, there are more job openings than unemployed people. if you get a job, you're making more money i think that the consumer certainly is going to be pinched, for sure, but i do

think that they will hang in there. and i do think we were -- i was very encouraged with the nike results earlier this week. starbucks actually also had better demand. i think there's a lot of areas in the market that are -- that are giving us opportunities. i still like energy very much, still like the industrials very much i think ge is interesting. and the total adjustable market for animal health is down. try not to get caught up in the negativity and thinking for the long term. that's what i'm trying to do in a challenging year. >> are you around next week? are you off? >> i'm off i'm traveling. i'll report back the following week in terms of what my findings are but i suspect there are a lot of people that are going to be traveling. yesterday's gdp number, we got services, the services numbers

were much stronger than expected that kind of confirms that a lot of people are doing things that -- getting out of the house. >> put a lot of water in that tree you're going to be gone for a long -- >> the reason i was asking, though, is, i'm here the end of next week. i wasn't sure if i was going to see you again. since i'm not going to, i want to say thank you i love having you on you're an excellent guest. >> thank you. >> we look forward to what you have to say. merry christmas, happy new year, and we will see you next year, stephanie. >> merry christmas thank you for having me. it's been a pleasure >> go up in flames if it gets too dry. you got to worry about that. she does not >> that's why i don't have a real tree anymore. we keep it up for so long, the kids love the tree we keep it up for six weeks. >> i look the last one down. seems like >> much more to come in this hour we get the latest on sam bankman-fried. he's back in the united states

after being extradited from the bahamas. back in california for christmas. >> crazy. >> and the holidays for -- with his parents. and then parents across the world worried about shortages of children's medicines we're going to speak with the head of the trade association that represents the major manufacturers. next, the envnfl says, okay google, and decides to put its sunday ticket on youtube you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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google owned youtube securing a multiyear deal for the nfl sunday ticket package. youtube will pay $2 billion a year for the weekly slate of sunday afternoon games joining us now to talk about the deal and how sports streaming is changing the entire landscape is george pine, a founder and ceo of bruin capital can't you get a bundle of streaming stuff? anything -- what's new is what's old or what's old is what's new. whatever the expression is. >> good morning, and happy holidays, joe and becky. it's a good deal for the nfl strategically what -- they have amazon on thursday nights and now they have youtube and google

for the direct tv package. and when you think about it, they were on the -- direct tv is a dying platform from 22 homes to 9 million and also, it brings a different demographic to the nfl you got amazon, youtube tv, plus linear television. of course, it's an increase. they continue to increase. i think for the nfl, it's a strong package and a good deal for them and a good deal for the consumers. particularly young consumers >> that's funny that you say it that way young consumers aren't watching nfl -- it's very violent i mean, they always pick winners. there's not participation awards are these young people are going to embrace something so competitive and so violent >> i think if you look at fantasy sports, young kids love fantasy sports and i think, you know, they love the nfl. again, young consumers aren't tuning into direct tv.

they're tuning into youtube. strategically, a good deal for the nfl. >> sports, you look at how you deliver it, and the one constant is the content itself. i wonder, how do you even make that content more valuable i think it might have something to do with gambling. >> certainly, you're 19 times more likely to watch a game if you gamble i think that's another good element that's sticky. it drives consumption, absolutely >> how does it work for you? >> i'm not a big gambler myself. a lot of people, young people as well, they love to gamble. i think it makes the game for interesting. it makes the irrelevant games more interesting when you can bet on a half or a quarter or what takes place on the field, irrespective of the score itself you see it in fantasy football, leagues and participation and, you know, gambling is an ex

extension of that. >> how long is this deal how many years >> seven years it gives them great flexibility as they look into the future. >> in seven years when the next entity bids on it, what -- what's your -- is it going to be 4 billion? 5 billion? what's the internal rate of return on these types of things because you don't find it many places like that >> you've been saying for 30 years, is there a rights bubble. for 30 years there hasn't been that doesn't mean that won't be the case in the future but, look, the nfl is king their tv ratings are the most valuable content on television i don't think that's going to change you think the nfl is in a strong position >> what else is coming up? what about march madness i watch everything now because of draftkings which, you know, i had a bet on argentina winning guess what i didn't get paid off, george. why do you think i didn't get

paid off >> you're on the wrong side of the spread, i guess. >> no, no, no, no. because it was a tie in regulation can you believe that >> that's tough. that's tough look the nba's tv deal is coming up in two years. i think that's a big deal to watch. obviously the gentleman who bought the phoenix suns for $4 billion and a big portion of that -- >> all-time high, right? >> all-time high it's in anticipation of what the nba is going to do in television of course, at 4 billion for the phoenix suns, the gentleman that paid 4.5 billion for the denver broncos is looking pretty good today as well. but it's in anticipation of what the nba tv rights are going to go for in two or three years. >> this reminds me of iger buying pixar he didn't care what he spent what are you buying? what are you doing >> we're investing in technology that brings content to consumers

on a global basis. and we're investing around the change in consumption. in fact, we do the streaming for the nfl in 181 countries through there. so we're investing in streaming and data and technology. it's gone quite well, actually >> are you midas or just riding the wave, george >> a little bit of both, right we're riding the wave and creating the wave. having a good time with it. >> and you're smart enough to see where the wave is coming but got to do that it is amazing as far as content goes i don't know anything that you can just rely so -- even olympics too live events, live business news, things like that >> look at the world cup amazing. and messi, 400 million followers on social media. just amazing when you look at the world cup is unmatched the nfl is unmatched.

>> and a final that was actually worth watching it was amazing goals and heartache and the heights and valleys that we used to hear about on the wide world of sports. the ecstasy and the misery -- agony and the ecstasy. >> look at the people on the streets in argentina coming to america in four years. america is going to be the global hub for sports. we have the olympics, we have the world cup, and this little other thing called the rugby world cup is coming later in the decade the u.s. is going to be a destination for global sports. >> where is the world cup being held >> in four years, it's going to be in the u.s. >> where >> in america. and then -- >> where >> is it going to be in new york >> it's going to affect every day when it's on >> all right, george, good luck with the bruins too.

>> thanks. see you. coming up after this, what is next for sam bankman-fried now that he's back in the united states and awaiting a court appearance early next month. i'll tell you what, he's home for the holidays we're going to get the latest on the ftx founder, what the situation is "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. the stop motion holiday classic santa claus is coming to town debuted in what year the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues what do you... got there? a hospital bill for me? mm-hmm. for $1,200? ga-a-a-ap! did you say "gap"? yeah, he did. he's talking about expenses that health insurance doesn't cover. ga-a-a-ap! uh-uh. aflac! that's why there's aflac. it pays you money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? don't tell me he high stepping. af-lac, af-lac! he stole my move! get help with expenses

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>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. the stop action holiday classic, santa claus is coming to town, debuted in what year the answer, 1970 ftx founder sam bankman-fried released while he awaits the next step in his legal battle following that multibillion dollar collapse of his cryptocurrency exchange. kate rooney joins us now with the latest the biggest surprise is that

he's out on bail. >> he's out on a record-breaking $250 million bond and here's back in the bay area the former crypto ceo appeared in a manhattan court yesterday after being extradited from the bahamas. the 30-year-old was granted pretrial relief on the condition that he hand over his passport and stay within northern california and certain parts of new york he'll submit to mental health counseling and he needs government approval for any expenses above a thousand dollars. they called the crimes a fraud of epic proportions and says this is the largest ever pretrial judge the judge says bankman-fried has gained sufficient notoriety, it would be impossible for him to engage in more financial crimes without being recognized bankman-fried's parents put up equity in their $4 million house to secure that bond. it was signed with a nonfamily

member with considerable asset the bond is 25 times bigger than bernie madoff's. the former enron ceo, elizabeth holmes putting up half a million dollars. his next court date set for january 3rd. break becky, back to you. >> did they say why? >> it's interesting, talking to legal experts before he came back here, the expectation was that he wouldn't get bond because he was seen as a flight risk and that's what the judge in the bahamas said they talked about some of the prior cases and said they had gotten burned in the past. he was too much of a flight risk he may have had assets we don't know about despite him saying he had $100,000 in his bank account. the number is just so massive. if bankman-fried misses a court date, tries to flee, his parents are on the hook for

$250 million. >> but it's not supposed to be punitive >> it's not supposed to be punitive he's still innocent. >> but you think about the number of people who are in the same situation who are awaiting trial who don't have a $100 to get out on bond and sit in jail. that brings you back to the unfairness of the justice system. >> a lot of people have talked about folks rating in rikers waiting -- >> i would put our justice system against any in the world. >> did we find out who this wealthy individual is? >> unnamed we don't know. they said considerable assets. if there's equity in a $4 million house, but that doesn't come close to $250 million total that someone is on the hook for if this guy tries to flee or doesn't show up for court. the stakes are quite high here >> all right >> thank you. >> thanks, kate. coming up, still a few hours

until christmas, but we already have some solid details about holiday season retail. we'll talk about what we know. but also, the question marks that are sll otiut there stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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we're in the final countdown to christmas and today is the second busiest shopping day of the year for a look at how retailers have faired this season, let's welcome e-commerce analyst we had -- we've had some good retail overall numbers, we've had some that seemed to indicate maybe a little bit of stress on consumers. all the stops usually get pulled out for christmas. is it going to be a good year, claire >> it's looking like it's a really strong year in our tracking, we're seeing that some shoppers have held back and are starting their shoppers a little bit later this year the question is, what is going to kick off those sort of hold outs who tend to be really financially anxious? are they going to get their shopping done this week or a smaller christmas shop this year. >> we have made light of other morning shows when we're talking

about yield curve inversions that they might be doing, the ten hottest items for christmas. but now i'm going to ask you, what are the ten hottest items for christmas? >> i'm also the wrong person to ask about the specific hot items. but what i do know is that the inflationary pressure on consumers is driving people into gift cards this season in our tracking, we see that intent to gift gift cards is up seven -- >> which places? overall visa, mastercard gift cards, best buy? apple? >> all over. we're seeing a strong tendency to give cash gift cards to specific retailers, depending on their recipients' interest are going to be popular this year. >> over the years, the big box guys have -- it's been all about digital, the transformation. some people that kept bricks and

mortar have flourished as well i think it's an all of the above-type strategy has worked best but what increases are we seeing for what's done online now >> so we're seeing -- we're continuing to see growth and e-commerce, of course, not quite the same surge that we saw in 2020 but that's still been performing really strong this year. what i'm really tracking is the consumer's utilization of services like buy online, pick up in store that are allowing people to do all of their browsing and checking out in the comfort of their own home and getting that fast, free, fulfillment as they do head into stores so that integration of local store inventory with the e-commerce experience is what's helping out the big box stores this season. >> people going -- putting things on credit cards or -- how is the savings -- how is the -- in your view, how is the state of the consumer right now? how strapped they are, any stimulus money left from the pandemic >> stimulus money is pretty much

long gone at this point. we are seeing people dip into savings. certainly leaning on credit cards this holiday season. what i have my eye on is buy now pay later loans. we saw that pick up across black friday and continuing to see those who are strapped lean into buy now, pay later there's a 20-point gap of people saying they're going to take out the loans to pay for this holiday season. >> if you look at what they spent last year or the year before, how much will they spend this year? will it be a percentage gain, single digits? >> probably. it's going to keep pace with inflation. most folks were saying they hope to keep their spending flat year over year. i think that's extremely optimistic given inflation and we see that consumers tell us that they are planning to really preserve their spend on gifts and food for celebrations, cutting back in places like travel, staying with friends and family instead of heading into a

hotel to try to keep the budget somewhat under control that's going to be tough with where prices are right now. >> claire, thank you we got to book someone about the ten most popular -- there's no beanie babies -- >> it's too late to buy it. >> you don't know what it is >> no. >> claire doesn't know what it is we'll have to plan a future segment, then, or watch one of the other morning shows. they've all done it. thanks >> too late. if you didn't buy it, you're not getting it yet. >> no. >> that's it >> probably right. when we come back, taking stock of big tech's 2022 wipeout. we're going to talk about the trends that are rkwoing against the mega caps and what analysts are seeing for next year stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc the world through their lens and invest accordingly. you can call us christmas eve at four o'clock in the morning. we're gonna always make sure

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make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. with about a week left in the year, we're beginning to get a full recognition of just how bad things have been for big tech in 2022 steve kovach joins us now with more over time, i'm glad i haven't been able to invest, steve, but i think at the beginning of this year, if you didn't know that higher interest rates were bad for high multiple tech stocks, was there a more obvious trade you could have gotten -- they're all down 50% >> yeah, something like that it's pretty brutal, joe. these five mega cap tech names

have lost over 3 1/2 trillion dollars, approaching $4 trillion, in market value this year. that's the reverse of what we saw last year and the end of that pandemic-tech boom. some examples here that's going to give you whiplash, joe, alphabet ended last year 67%, it's down 39% so far this year, on pace for its worst year since '08. apple up 33 in 2021, down 25% the so for this year the last couple weeks having brutal there and you can't leave out the worst performer, meta, down 65% so far this year after soaring 24% in 2021. guys, this was a $900 billion company earlier this year. so what happened exactly it's unique for each name, apple struggling to meet iphone demand due to covid lockdowns, and amazon overbuilding warehouse capacity and overhiring during the pandemic and yet it's still some of these

big tech names that analysts see as bright spots of what could be an overall dark 2023 for the market analysts naming meta, amazon and alphabet as top pix for 2023, picketing a downs back from the sell off this year and several other analysts naming microsoft as their top pick next year so there's still some optimism, joe. >> interesting macro, you could say, well, rates are going up, high multiply stocks come down and that explains the sell-off in tech but meta was specific. and then i think about even some media companies that have tech investments in streaming or whatever and they're pouring money into streaming with no return so tech sort of -- individual tech disaster has affected everything there were individual stories for all of them. >> it's a unique situation m meta's case, it's them overspending on this metaverse

stuff. and amazon was only up -- they were only up 1% last year on top of the drop this year. andy jassy is having a tough time turning this around but there's that anticipation of a bounceback next year that some of these tech names will come right back. >> you wonder where was the -- was the pandemic premium just irrational and is this more rational does it really go back to any of those things that probably weren't real in the first place with all the easy money? i don't know what -- i don't know what fair value is? >> there's two years of extuberance. if you listen to the intels of the world, people are going to be upgrading their pcs every year for forever that's not happening the pc market is probably going to shrink next year. same with smartphones. flat to down this year, probably flat to down again next year. we're seeing demand fall too >> i would stay with this beat,

steve. don't go into rust belt stuff -- >> i would stick with tech good idea. >> plastics. >> plastics. when we come back, we're going to speak with the head of the trade association that represents some of the top manufacturer's of children's pain and fever medications lots of areas of the country seeing shortages of those important drugs at a time when there's lots of illness ingog around too stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back, everybody. a combination of the flu, covid-19 and rsv leading to high demand of children's medication. some of the biggest name pharmacies have limited purchases and in some cases nothing on the shelves right now we're going to talk about what led to the shortages and when we should expect things to normalize joining us is scott melville his organization represents three major manufacturers. scott, i will say i ran into this problem myself. went into a walgreens earlier this week twice and there was nothing. nothing on the shelves at all. what happened? >> well, becky, happy holidays to you and your experience is not unlike a lot of experiences recently i can tell you this is the time of year, holidays, when we generally get together and celebrate with our families, co workers, it's often the final

where flu gets spread and we see a spike. what happened this year, it spread earlier and more than normal about 16 times greater with children we saw first a lot of influenza, then we saw a lot of rsv which is another respiratory virus, very contagious and with children very dangerous. we continue to have covid. this tripledemic of respiratory viruses has put incredible demand on the supply chain that started much earlier than normal frinlt from store to store there are, indeed, some empty shelves. what i'm here to tell you today the manufacturing supply chain is operating extremely efficiently and producing more product than it ever has before. >> this is not a brand-new problem this week. i noticed the same thing before

thanksgiving i went to four cvss and a grocery store. they didn't have any then. how long does it take to catch up with demand it's not something i would expect to see four, five, six weeks later. >> these are medicines, they're complicated to manufacture what i can report is there's no issue with manufacturing this is not a manufacturing driven issue, this is a demand driven issue so i would recommend to -- >> but can you not ramp up -- i get it, demand is definitely high i feel like all these kids are getting illnesses they haven't gotten nor three years they need to build up their immune systems but is it not possible to boost manufacturing just because we've seen other waves where the manufacturer is trying to chase those. are you not able do that >> you can't build factories overnight. they are operating 24/7. they are looking for new facilities, contract manufacturers. they're bringing in product from elsewhere. they're doing everything they

can to supplement the current supply it is the number one priority right now for our member companies. >> are there places where -- i've read in the notes sometimes one chain doesn't have enough, maybe cvs doesn't have enough, walgreens, where can you go to find excess supply of it are you moving stuff around the country? are there parts of the country where it's worse >> the great thing about over the counter medicines, they're available at not just pharmacies but hundreds of thousands of other outlets. go to a grocery store, go to a dollar store, go to a big box retailer i was at costco yesterday it was fully stocked with tylenol, kirkland, advil. on any given day -- >> children's? >> -- the store may be out of stock but the next day it may be in stock it's being replenished by our members. >> expectations that this high demand will drop, is that what everybody is thinking at this point? that this is something we live

with for a few months and it goes away or are you changing expectations based on what you're seeing right now? >> there is some good news on the horizon. i met with the commissioner of the fda and secretary of hhs, they reported rsv and flu appear to be peaking, that for three straight weeks now we've had less flu than we had the previous week. so let's hope that we peaked early. we started early hopefully we're peaking early. there will be some spread over the holiday season we continue to advise everyone get a flu shot get a booster. wear a mask if you are in a crowded room do what you can to stop transmission of these viruses. >> let's hope we are peaking now. scott, thank you. >> absolutely. thanks, becky. happy holidays. >> you, too. a $1.6 trillion spending bill heading to the house after passing the senate chris coons with the latest out of washington. stay tuned

"squawk box" will be right back.

. good morning home for the holidays. sam bankman we're talking about here sam bankman-fried. sam bankman-fried posting bail awaiting trial at his parents house, $4 million digs lots of people won't be getting home for the holidays.

more than 3200 flights canceled today. that's 250 more than when "squawk box" started at 6 a.m. the word as we speak plus, breaking news this hour. we'll get the pce index for november the fed's favorite engagement gauge. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box. this is cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick. joe kernen is here andrew is off this week. we're keeping an eye on things as we head into the holiday weekend. u.s. equity futures are in the green. dow futures up by 75 points. s&p up by 8.5. nasdaq up by 35 after a down day

from markets treasury yields picking up, too. the 10-year looks like it's yielding 3.71% ab 3.7. sam bankman-fried was released often $250 million bond it was secured by equity in his home and his parents home and two other people he will be required to wear an electronic bracelet. up next, next hearing is on january 3rd where he'll enter his plea the $250 million bond is believed to be the largest ever pre-trial bond for comparison, bernie madoff posted a $10 million bond while awaiting trial on his multi-billion dollar ponzi scheme jeff skilling posted $5 million

bond elizabeth holmes posted $500,000 we saw an ariel shot of his parents' home in palo alto 4 million is a lot for a home. in palo alto it's not quite what it would be in -- >> million dollar shacks in palo alto >> yeah. but -- >> how do you secure 250 million? >> you don't you have to put up less than 10% of it. the i want to know who the person was who signed, the wealthy individual apparently a couple of them are related to him one is not >> one is not. >> be fun to speculate but totally irresponsible. >> so we'll just wait for the commercial break >> so let's do it. >> let's wait for the commercial break to speculate i would be a flight risk. >> me, too >> i would be a serious flight risk. >> especially if you were 30 years old, had money.

>> airstrip. >> private jet. >> or a boat >> need a bigger boat. >> also, elon musk in the news once again he said that he would pause selling shares in tesla for at least 18 to 24 molgdnths he said he wouldn't sell any shares next year under any circumstances. musk said a decision on the buy back of the company stock could be influenced by the severity of any economic downturn. that stock did pick up it's up by 1.3%. back to 127. you can see the steady slide taking place over the next several months. at&t and blackrock teaming up on a new commercial fiber network. at&t will form a joint venture called giga power. the project will make for the new network available to internet service providers and other businesses across the united states outside the 21 states where at&t provides wire line service the companies didn't disclose

financial services you can see the stocks right there. right now let's get to dom chu with a look at -- he's really looking like he's in front of a fireplace or something this morning i saw him earlier. pre-market movers. >> you know, so this happy holiday -- >> are you going to welcome us to the neighborhood? >> it's a wonderful day. >> it is a wonderful day it is very festive you can see one of our technical operators, morgan, has written a very nice note about the happy holidays at one point we had the yule log playing in the wall behind us. we're trying to get to the holiday spirit in englewood, new jersey you see it behind me the yule log is going. anyway, i'm going to clear this. we'll tell you about the morning movers oil stocks generally higher. you have names like con conoco conocophillips, marathon oil,

coterra, halliburton, slb. and they're continuing this near-term up trend off the lows that we saw back on december 9th this time on concerns over lower oil supplies from russia all of those things are working their way through the market you have oil stocks working oil prices next up, shares. nutanix, cloud computing company, getting slammed down 15%. the down side is being driven by a report from deal reporter that said hp enterprises no longer in talk with nutanix. they say it's according to sources familiar that's the report that's driving the down side in nutanix shares. that's why we're bringing it to you. then we're going to end with shares of toro, theoutdoor law care product company it got up here to outperform to perform at raymond james

set at 130 bucks a share toro having reported earnings and this is a stock that has seen decent momentum in that outdoor trade, so to speak, even post pandemic. toro is up 3%, up 12% definitely bucking the broader market me and the yule log behind me will send things back over to you. >> i don't know, you look like the heat mizer or something -- >> heat mizer had crazy hair >> everything you can do to get in the holiday spirit. i want to get cozy up here got my sweater on. channelling my inner andrew. >> you do look a little like mr. rogers >> that person that put the happy holidays has good handwriting. >> that's morgan she's here off set. >> i think i've seen some of her work on the west side highway on some of those abandoned buildings. do you know if she does that >> i'm not sure if she does or

not but i'm going to suggest it to her because she has very nice handwriting. >> that's right. little bit further the other way, move! away from the fire >> no, the other way, other waste, other way >> there you go. >> that's better >> making me hot >> watching the flames good lord. would you stop >> friday before christmas. >> right before christmas. clearly we're drinking a little egg nog this morning we have no excuse. >> on the show yesterday morning billionaire investor david tepper talked about his current investment strategy. nchs i would probably say i'm leaning short on the equity markets. you know, so -- right now because i think they're -- you know, i think the upside down side doesn't make sense to me when i have so many people

telling me -- so many central banks telling me what they're going to do, what they want to do, what they're expected to do. >> our next guest says retail traders still want to be involved in the markets but they just don't know where to go to try to find returns. for more on what stocks they are buying, we want to bring in j.j.kinehan. welcome to the party >> you've been having irish coffee this morning. >> we haven't. we haven't we're excited. everybody gets excited ahead of christmas time j.j., let's talk about this. what tepper was laying out was serious. he doesn't see anywhere to go. he's going to be short on credit, short on treasuries and short on equities, too that's a pretty unusual position not all retail investors want to go short so if that's the case, if you don't want to go short, you are worried about what next year is bringing, where do you go >> he says he's leaning short. most have to lean long, becky. longer term investments in iras,

et cetera. what's interesting to me is watching over the last few months what's happened and what we saw if i go year over year, last year we saw individual names being purchased, et cetera what we're seeing now is the etfs are based on indices. primarily spiders and ppqs options and underlyings themselves have gone 25% to almost 40% right now so it's not only the overall market that's confusing but the individual stocks have also been a place that's really been difficult for people to be and there's no one name that leaps out. you guys have talked a lot about tesla obviously over the last few weeks and to me one of the things about tesla is it's always been a confidence barometer for retail to see tesla getting beaten up here as we head into the end of next year i think has a lot of people scratching their heads as

to where do i turn next. at least they're like, okay, an index overall. i feel a bit more comfortable. even though the markets are struggling, i don't have the idiosyncratic risk of one stock with earnings, bad news but it is a tough time for people trying to figure out what the next step is. >> why wouldn't the alternative be cash? that's what tepper recommended when i asked if you play along save up. save your cash for a rainy day. >> you know what, becky. one of the things be when we talk to retail trading, like a professional mind bot. people have to consider is sort of scaling in, if you will i think that one of the bad habits that retail has gotten over the years is to be a bit all or none rather than thinking in a scaled way. what you're saying about cash is

they invest a bit over the next few months for longer term stock. for retail traders that are more trading bias, this has always been a bit of a confusing time we talk about the vix a lot when i'm on here. normally when we see markets with weakness that we're seeing right now, you see the vix start to go up volatility increase. we're not seeing -- although it was up yesterday 9%, we're coming from a pretty low level from where we've been recently so this selloff, if you will, gradual over the last few weeks really hasn't been accompanied by an explosion in volatility. so that's also a little bit more difficult although i will say we are starting to see a lot more -- you know, we're continuing to see strong options activity throughout the market as people are looking for different ways to hedge themselves. >> what happens over the holidays i know volume drops significantly on the exchanges what about the retail investor are they more or less likely to

be making moves over the next week or two? >> i think this year you may see people doing more tax loss harvesting than perhaps you've seen in the last few years and rolling out with positions a bit more i would uksexpect you would seea bit more retail activity than you would normally see as a percentage of business this time of year strictly for those reasons and more tax moves, quote, unquote, if you will, rather than necessarily trading and saying i have to be involved for q1 the that said, i think people to your point about being in cash are going to start looking at the end of the year and say what stocks have just gotten decimated that i think might be good going forward we saw a day like yet where i will say for the first time in a while we saw some bottom picking, people coming in to buy tesla. the some people coming in to buy a.m. ma stop and apple after these stocks have gotten beaten up pretty good overall

again, those have been a bit of the confidence ba rom meters we have seen in the last year or two. >> j.j., thank you good to see you, my friends. >> happy holidays, beck. have a great new year, you and joe. >> thank you >> carlos gomes. >> he hit in something the. >> i just checked it out a yamaha double bass case. >> see if there's any flight movements. you know what you call a motorcycle comedian? this was on the jumble the other day. you missed it. what do you call that will >> a yamaha ha >> what do you call -- >> go ahead. >> wait a second what did the buffalo dad -- oh,

no i messed it up already what did the buffalo -- >> keep your day job. >> no, i messed it up. >> pork and eggs we're going to talk about the pet projects funded by the $1.7 billion omnibus bill that's the pork. >> the punch line is bye son when he drops him off at school. completely on its head. bringing legendary design... and state-of-the-art technology... to a fully-electric suv. the all-new, all-electric eqb from mercedes-benz. see your dealer for exceptional offers on mercedes-benz electric vehicles.

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today on a $1.7 trillion bill to fund the government. that bill will also pay for a lot of pet projects in the lawmaker's home districts. ylan mui takes a look at christmas pork good morning. >> reporter: good morning, becky. congress is definitely bringing home the bacon this christmas. nearly $9 billion worth of it. that's because of the sprawling government funding bill lawmakers are passing includes money for the pet projects commonly treefrd as earmarks a lot of these are bridges, fire stations connecticut senators requested $206,000 for ticks and diseases. they asked for $165,000 for oyster restoration and altogether the bipartisan policy center counted 4,440 ear marks totaling $8.7 billion. 40% of the funds were requested by republicans, 60% came from

democrats. on the senate floor republican ron johnson made a last-ditch effort to strip all of the earmarks from the funding bill. >> this is grotesque earmarks are the gateway drug to the mortgaging of our children's future this abuse must stop >> democratic patrick leahy countered that congress does have the power of the purse. guys, johnson's effort failed just 34 in favor and 63 against. back over to you >> i guess there's no way around it the only way they're going to get something done is if you buy everybody off, they get their own pet projects, right, ylan? >> reporter: earmarks were gone for a while. they just came back last year. so this is really a new and evolved version of earmarks that congress is working with now they did try to put in different safeguards in order to stem what a lot of people saw as baseless

spending members were capped at 15 requests you have to certify neither you, your spouse, your family members have a direct financial interest the money has to go to a nonprofit, government agency they are trying to find ways to ensure this doesn't get abused constituent services, retail politics, that's what this is all about. >> 15 requests of what to do with our money got it thank you. >> for more on the spending bill, let's bring in senator chris coons. senator, it's good to have you on you've seen all the -- and happy holidays merry christmas. you've seen all of the -- i don't know, the commentary from different sides that this has become kind of a ritual where you wait until you know people want to get to go home and you really put a lot of stuff in at the last minute whether it's earmarks or whatever 1.6 trillion 4 trillion over the last two years and 31 trillion now we owe? is this all okay, senator?

do you ever look at it and say, we've overdone it? >> well, joe, i voted for the omnibus and i'm proud to support it but i don't like the process. a bipartisan group of senators on the floor of the senate were talking about how we can change this process going forward because frankly as you said, when it comes to the floor the last few days and hours, that doesn't give us enough time to fully scrub and understand what other members have put in it i understand i am responsible and so is my colleagues the congressional delegation for the congressionally directed spending for delaware, but i don't know exactly what every other member of the senate has put in the bill. so, frankly, it's important for us to change the timing to get back to following what's in the law in terms of having open hearings early in the year, not late in the year one of the things about these

earmarks or congressionally directed spending, the current process requires every single one of them to be transparent, to be assigned to a specific member we have to sign off on them. as you just heard in the introduction there, we have to have them supported by a municipal government or a nonprofit. they cannot in any way benefit a donor. those were some of the excesses from 20 years ago that led to earmarks being eliminated. i think there are some really good investments in this omnibus bill which is why i voted for it a significant increase in local law enforcement. the funding to bring advanced manufacturing of semiconductor chips back to the united states. infrastructure funding that will help modernize our economy and create high paying, good jobs. and a city significant increase in pay for the men and women of our armed forces there were a lot of positives in this bill and i voted for it i'm hopeful that the house will

pass it today as well. >> nothing's perfect i understand that. we found out after all the pandemic relief funds, i don't know how much of it we saw, you know, either was stolen basically or went where it wasn't needed or it was just misused. do we just accept that, that that's going to happen that's a cost of doing business? is it like leakage or something that they talk about in retail here's one of my points. i've already seen which republicans voted and it was bipartisan but, you know, certain elements are circulating the name of the 12 or 50 or whatever it was, the names so the republicans get more defense spending than they wanted so they can say, well, we got what we wanted democrats get some of the stuff you talk about you got what we wanted it's like a drunken spree of spending and the poor taxpayer is at home going, great. you know, the republicans got what they wanted, democrats got what they wanted, did anyone ask

me what i wanted >> yes well, joe, let's be clear. that's part of the point having these locally directed spending initiatives allows members of the house and senate to go to their districts, to go to their states and say, what are the investments that you see value in and many of the priorities that i fight for are the result of delawareans saying to me, we want you to invest the things i got funding for, i'll give you three examples, help to replenish the beaches of southern delaware. that's critical for the beach towns. help to build a new state hospital for the chronically ill. that's something our governor and state legislators told me was a high priority, getting a new hospital for the chronically ill built here in delaware last is a national institute for innovation in biopharmaceuticals at the university of delaware. that's something our nation has

said we need to be better at quickly and affordably manufacturing state of the art vaccines and therapeutics going forward. the things i put money in from affordable housing to skills training, from the beaches to the hospital for the chronically ill do respond to constituent concerns that's part of democracy joe, the way you put it, democrats get this, republicans get that, that's the result of our being elected and representing the things that our constituents say they want. >> let me ask you this, senator. you see what the fed's doing and their stated intention is to like raise unemployment, cool the consumer, slow down the economy, maybe to a soft landing or if they go too far to a recession. do you tie -- and once again, no one asked the american people if they're ready. are you ready for a recession? because we've spent so much

money for the past two years that we have 40-year highs in inflation and that -- you know, that's not people that are being affected by this that's not their fault that's congress's fault or the administration's fault do you agree >> joe, i'm not sure what your question is but let me -- >> do you think you spent too much money over the past two years which is causing inflation which is bringing us into probably a recession because we've overspent? >> joe, in the height of the pandemic when tens of thousands of businesses were shut down here in delaware and where tens of thousands of people were newly unemployed, my phone rang off the hook for weeks and weeks as folks demanded emergency relief we ended up very quickly and unanimously voting on an $800 billion package that sent out relief checks to businesses large and small, unemployment

checks to folks who were newly unemployed that was the direct result of people asking us to act. >> then the next three multi-trillion dollar outlays. >> the same. >> it wasn't pandemic. the other stuff wasn't pandemic related. it wasn't assisting people it was optional. it was optional spending that democrats wanted to do and got it with -- on not a bipartisan basis, they got it because they had 50-50 in the senate. >> so, joe, the bill that we're talking about today, $1.7 trillion, got a strong bipartisan margin in the senate yesterday. >> okay. >> i think it reflects the balanced priorities of both parties and, yes, we are spending a lot of money, but frankly we had 3.2% growth this quarter. we have record low unemployment. we have a tight labor market and i think there's a real chance we

will see what you just referred to as a soft landing in the coming year. i'll put it this way, our economy is strong. our country is strong. one of the most stirring things that happened in the last few days was president zelenskyy of ukraine came and spoke to a joint session of congress. that's a significant piece of what we got done in the last days to provide support to the brave people of ukraine who are on the front lines of freedom around the world it is not inexpensive for us to have the world's mostcapable military and for us to provide support for manufacturing, for health care, for education but i wouldn't trade living in the united states for any other country on earth today >> the next year we're not looking at 3.5%. nobody knows at this point, but if it's below 1% gdp and we do go into -- we see unemployment go back to 6 or 7% you would still say that not the pandemic spending and not this bill, but

what was in between? the student loan forgiveness, inflation reduction act, chips bill, all that was worth it even if we go into a recession and grow at 3% >> i will tell you, joe,having brand-new state of the art semiconductor chip manufacturing plants going up in ohio and arizona reduces our vulnerability to china threatening taiwan, reduces the chance we will again have a semiconductor chip driven problem with supply chains and makes our country and our economy more resilient and more robust i'll stand behind the chips and science spending bill any day. >> student loan, too >> that -- as you know, that relief is not going forward because it's been blocked. >> right were you for it? >> joe, we frankly can argue about what are you for and what are you against in every single bill there are things i am against in this bill but i voted for it

because in the end our system requires compromise. so i think that our president overall has done a great job and i have supported president biden's initiatives and i frankly think we have done our best getting through what has been a very difficult time for our country and i hope as folks go to enjoy the holidays in the coming days they recognize that a balanced and bipartisan group in the senate has moved our country forward this year. >> senator, great to have you on as i said, merry christmas happy holiday. >> merry christmas. coming up, the fed's favorite inflationau j ggeust minutes away we'll get november pce data next "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli live at cme hq breaking news. personal income and spending for november income up .4. a little better than expected but of course we see in the rear-view mirror .7 was the best since september. it is a bit lower. spending side up half of .1. that's the lightest since july that is causing pause as everybody tries to assess the holiday season personal real spending is unchanged when it comes to inflation. now let's get into some of the important numbers. pce, personal consumption

expenditure deflator month over month is up exactly .1 of 1% high water mark in june. year over year deflator expected to be up 5.5 -- excuse me, year over year up 5.5% is up exactly 5.5% the high water mark was 7% back in june. if you look at the pce core deflator month over month, it's up .2 exactly as expected. the high water mark there goes all the way back to last year in april when it was up .6. now if we look at what's going on with regard to the deflator year over year, up 4.7 this is a bit hotter than expectations but it's well over last year. high water mark february of this year at 5.4% now we look at durable good orders these are preliminary. they're going to change in a couple of weeks.

expected to be down 1% double that, down 2.1. down 2.1 that is the weakest level going back to -- wow we have to go back quite a ways. going back to april. april. april of 2020 when it was down a record covid amount. so that is definitely not a good number and if we look at the durable goods x transportation, we can see what's going on there. transportation, it rises it rises to positive .2. if you look at capital good orders, a proxy from capital spending, it's up .2 that's better than expected. if you look at shipments, it's down .1. that's opposed to down .3 expectation. in the rear-view mirror it was up 1.4 especially on shipments and capital good orders, nondefense, that is a proxy for capital spending we've seen some pretty good numbers. especially on shipments moving down, we don't like to see it

moving down when we're trying to assess holiday shopping. it has been on the high side this is a bit of a give back after all of that, interest rates climbed just a smidge higher a smidge higher is pretty important. we are toying with new high yields and 10-year nodes for the week as we hover a bit above 371. remember, last week we closed below 3.5% like 3.49. we've seen the curve add to yield on the long end which has been the opposite of what you're seeing part of that is reversals from some of those big yield curve inversions of course, joe, you've been talking about the omnibus bill all morning. it is something to pay close attention to when the fed is so worried about inflation and spending and the congressman you just had on is hitting us harder with his hammer, powell, back to you, becky. >> that's got to be the reaction in the equities markets, too,

rick, when you see the futures drop off dropped on this news i guess that's because everything we're seeing from an economic standpoint from the data the last couple of days has given a sign that the fed's not going to do -- is not going to let up, is going to kind of stay steady at least at this point. >> yeah. the and slow and it's hard to negate, especially after yesterday's equity dropped we could all see when you look at overseas issues, the big mac crow issues. the under tone of energy hasn't gone away. brian sullivan's done such a great job. next year they have to increase the inissuance of their debt anywhere from 10 to 12% just to give the governments more money from dealing with subsidizing rising energy costs. there's a lot of big mac crow issues, especially exogenous ones outside the u.s they're going to affect our economy which is also slowing but probably not nearly as much

and our fed's further along than many of the larger companies around the world. >> let's get over to steve liesman. steve, what's your take away >> pretty good data on the income side. i like this because what happened is you had this -- i have to put the glasses back on to make sure i get it right. 0.4% on the headline of income and then you only have the pce price index taking away 0.1. you had a real income gain of 0.3% i think that's good news the spending side, i'm not worried about that because remember we had the 0.9% surge in october i think a lot of christmas was brought forward and i think because companies brought goods into the country earlier so they were sitting on the shelves and they started doing discounts, stuff like that. they moved stuff earlier i guess amazon had a prime day

in october, too. so i think there was an earlier christmas that helped spending in october november was not as strong it was looks like a 0.1% gain. 0 after inflation. so it's -- december becomes the rubber match here. on the pce, we had a beat on the top line and miss on the core number and i think that's going to be a wash for the markets here i think we have decent growth. maybe a little bit slower and inflation coming down but not coming down fast enough. this is not a crazy day like yesterday with the 3.2% gdp number we're going to have to next week, becky, put this stuff into our rapid update machine and see what it spits out. we've been running 1.5 to 2%, maybe not crazy. >> steve, it's a date. see you back here next week. thank you. >> have a great holiday. >> you, too. happy holiday.

when we come back, inflation in america one kitchen staple hitting a high we will talk autbo inflation and the fed with david wesle from brookings "squawk box" will be right back.

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if you haven't already been to the grocery store and seen it, egg prices have touched record highs because of an avian flu outbreak across the country. wholesale prices $5.36 this month. the consumer price index is up for more on the latest inflation numbers we want to bring in david wessel he's the director of brookings institute on fiscal and monetary policy david, what do you think we keep thinking and hoping that we have seen the peaks of inflation, but how long do you think it lasts how high do you think it will be before we get back to the fed's target of 2% >> i think that inflation is moving in the right direction. one of the good things about today's number is that it's not surprising and we've had so many surprises on the inflation front, this is consistent with the forecast that the fed put

out in the last statement of economic projections for where they think pce inflation will be as you point out, we're still a long way from 2% i don't think the fed will be satisfied that the inflation rate is coming down fast enough. and jay powell in particular keeps harping on wage costs. he thinks wages are rising too fast to be consistent with his 2% inflation target so i expect they'll keep raising rates i think it will be a couple of years before we get inflation do you know to 2% who knows, the fed may change the target before we get there >> yeah. it's the wage inflation i think that is the biggest issue. is this a different labor market is this a situation where, you know, normally the labor market will tighten up a little bit or normally the labor market weakens and then you see a break in inflation do you see that happening this time around? >> well, i think the labor market has been persistently strong unemployment remains low and if you look at the fed's forecast,

they essentially say the unemployment rate is too low and they would like to raise it. so i think they'll keep tightening until they can move up the unemployment rate what's going on here well, one thing is that the economy is still pretty strong steve mentioned earlier or maybe santelli comparison to europe. the fed has an economy that it thinks is growing too strong and that's why we have inflation that's trying to cool it off the europeans have an economy that's still too weak and they're trying to cool off inflation. it's a much harder thing the big question of what happens to labor supply. people who have been on the sidelines come back into the labor market will that relief some pressure on wages get rid of all of the help wanted signs you see when you walk down the street or will this persist until the fed feels like it has to really slam on the brakes one really interesting and encouraging thing is the census

bureau -- net migration was lower than any year since 2010 we know in some industries the decline of immigration, partly because of covid, partly because of president trump's policies and attitudes has made it harder to hire and that's forced up wages. >> we had david tepper on yesterday. he was pretty interesting in how he looks at the big mac crow he's short equities right now because when the fed speaks and other heads of central banks speak and say they're going to raise rates continually and hold those rates higher for longer, he believes them it's counter to maybe the prevailing view in the markets right now. a lot of investors seem to think the fed has to change its mind at some point and backtrot, if not flat out stop. you sound like you believe the fed too. >> first of all, if you are looking for advice on investing in the stock market, you should

listen to david tepper and not me. >> in terms of believing them. believe what they say. >> i i believe the fed i believe the fed is resolute. i believe jay powell does not want to leave office as the fed chair who let inflation get out of control when they come to the really close calls, that will happen sometime in 2023, i suspect they will err on the side of doing too much rather than too little. so if the stock market is driven by what the fed does, you should believe what the fed says. i think they really mean it. >> david, thank you. happy holidays thanks for joining us this morning. >> same to you, becky. some news just in the last few minutes. fedex is now warning its customers that some packages with the delivery commitment of today or tomorrow might not make it on time they might be delayed because of what they're calling substantial disruptions at their memphis and indianapolis hubs last night because of the severe winter weather that's shutting things be down all over the country it recognizes the importance of

delivering on the holiday weekend. it has contingency plans in place and will provide this. i got this note because i'm a fedex customer i have the app downloaded so it's sending me these updates. i think this is not going to be fedex specific you're seeing flights canceled if you thought you were going to get something, you may not be getting it i know that's what i'm doing today. >> until you can send physical things over the internet -- >> well, that's what these 3d pr printers are about the short of that, i'm not trusting anything is arriving. >> until then things need to move from point a to point b. >> and weather matters. >> weather matters and energy matters. we seem to forget that. just a heads up. the if you're waiting on those packages, you might want to get out and find a replacement gift

today. coming up, jim cramer's first take on the trading days ahead. as we head to break, check out the latest flight cancellation numbers from flight aware. 3300 is the running total. that's up 350 from when we began the show at 6 a.m. eastern "squawk box" will be right back.

let's get down to new york

stock exchange jim cramer joins us now. ride the rally a little bit off of yesterday it did come back a little yesterday, jim it was at least a little bit of the negativity dissipated as the session went on, but now here we are today, up 100. i guess guess we got to get inte new year to really start thinking what is true and what isn't. >> well, yesterday, historically, is the bottom. thursday's the day you're supposed to buy, intraday, according to larry williams, my market historian so far, he looks right but the fact is that tepper's right, which is that nothing's coming in soft enough around the world, so the central banks are not winning. these numbers, i thought, were in line. i didn't think they were anything special but tepper's not a grinch. he's just really did say the right thing, which is that they've got to get wages down, and they can't get wages down until we have layoffs, so i thought your show was really great yesterday, and as much as

i i would like to not have what dave said, dave's right. we can't get wages down, and none of these numbers i'm seeing today are indicating we can. >> and actually, since he's been on, i've used "it is what it is" a couple times because it kind of sums things up. there's a lot that goes into what you mean when you say, "it is what it is. i guess it's that i really don't like saying this, and i wish it wasn't that way, but when you just add everything up, unfortunately, that's exactly where we stand, and in europe, we just heard from wesley, i mean, europe is not in any position to try to slow down an economy. >> no. you and i both remember when he came on. he was in jersey, and he came on and said, look, this is one to the great buying opportunities -- this was in 2010 he said, listen, we got to load them up. everyone else was saying that things were bad. so, it's not like he's one of these guys that always says, no,

it's bad when he came on, he made everybody a fortune. now it's the opposite. the rates aren't high enough to stop things, and the numbers aren't what they want, so they have to do the opposite, and i thought it was very clear-headed when he said, it is what it is what he's saying is, it's nothing like it was in 2010 when i told you to buy everything >> right >> so, you got to kind of go with it. >> right what was i just thinking >> he's also a good guy. >> something about it being the holidays and being in the, you know, with family and fireplaces and -- >> we're doing that. >> yeah. >> we're doing that in summit, new jersey it's been fantastic. great thing. but tepper's right i can't stand it when tepper's right. but it is what it is >> well, we'll worry about this after we, you know, into the -- spend time with family and what's important >> he's in the super bowl with me we were both at the super bowl >> that's right. >> all right >> you definitely have a good

shot this year yeah we might, both of us that would be nfc-afc, wouldn't it that could happen, jim >> wouldn't that be great? we were there last year. why not? >> could be there again. >> i have chase this weekend i need him to be regina gilgan, my executive producer. demar chase is the best receiver in the league. >> i know. and they've, like, think-- the know what they're doing, both of them >> chase goes off this weekend >> thanks, jim see you in just a few minutes. ♪♪

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with less than an hour to go before the opening bell, the futures now have -- they went, wow, it's crazy. they were down, then they were just up. now they're back down a point. let's bring in managing partner, portfolio manager at dcla as well as a cnbc contributor i don't know if i'm going to ask you a macro question, since that's not really -- that's not your thing you try to find things that you can buy that go up, and that can happen any time, so what would you be recommending today? >> so, look, joe, i mean, the headwind's coming in the macro side we know the fed's not going to stop, so we got to find good

companies that are going to power through this, so if you look at the staples side, there are companies that are undervalued. you look at companies like nestle that have pricing power they're doing well they're going to do well, and they're global companies, so we like that, and then you go to healthcare, very defensive in an area like this in healthcare, you've got companies like bristol meyers, j&j, and they have earnings growth and what are investors looking for? they're looking for less volatility on their earnings so, you know, rising rates, uncertain kind of macroenvironment, go to companies that have solid balance sheets and are going to grow earnings. >> the time to buy, would you wait until next year >> if you've got cash, some of the companies i mentioned are good to buy. i don't think you're going to get the santa claus rally. too many things are going on you have tax lot selling

investors don't want to realize gains in their portfolio they're selling their losers and you got window dressing. a lot of portfolio managers don't want to be left with stocks that were down for the year, so you really have a lot of headwinds going into the year, and i think next year will be a new year, and we'll rebase and go from there. >> the -- do you think about the fed? you must, i guess. do you try to ignore it? >> it's really hard to do because when the data comes out that kind of, again, we got today that's consistent to, hey, we're going to keep on raising rates, we're not getting the slow down we're looking for. we're not getting the wage deflation we're looking for, so you have to look at the company side and say, what company is going to be affected by this, and if cost of capital is going to go up, you got to look at companies that have cash flow kind of much sooner than later, so it really does affect our investing, and it affects where we want to be. we're looking at commodities now. we're looking at much more companies that are going to have cash flow up front, hard assets.

that's what happens when you have a rising rate environment >> black swans, you can't worry about. it's been 300 days with ukraine. god knows 2023, sarat. we hope for better, but those types of 1% probabilities, if you thought about those all the time, i guess you wouldn't invest, probably >> you're absolutely right go back a year ago, and we didn't know this was going to happen in ukraine. you didn't know what was going to happen in china so, there are all these unknowns we don't know what the unknowns are for next year. but on the other side, look at it glass half full, you could have some positives come out we'll see what those are and if things -- we get the soft landing, things improve in europe, the winter's not as bad, the consumer is stronger, but yet we get good growth, those could be all positives you have to put those in a powerful cocktail. >> thanks. and have a great holiday, great

christmas, sarat i found the phil connors quote, basking in the warmth of their heart and hearths of your family that's what we're going to do. >> perfect >> and not worry about -- >> the markets, about anything else >> i'm quoting a faux weatherman in a crazy movie but it is touching >> great movie >> touching, and everybody have a great christmas, great holiday. and great new year, hopefully. >> bye-bye see you on tuesday happy holidays, everybody, merry christmas. we'll see you next week. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange david faber has the morning off. final blast of data before the holiday. weekend futures are green, as durables come in light core pce roughly in line, maybe a tenth heavy year on year personal spending, lightest since july our road map begins with tesla, shares on track to