even during a terrible year for the s&p 500 this year. do they keep buying? do they provide that support for the markets? >> that is particularly interesting given that there's so many things with the stock ticker's market. that would mean not as much on the etf s although now might be the time to go back. thanks for being with us that will do it for "overtime. "fast money" starts right now. and thanks a lot, john right now on "fast" heading into the christmas holiday. stocks finish the friday trade in the green will it help the major averages finish a rough year on a high note the final countdown to santa tweef' asked our trading elves to stuff their stockings with stocks that you won't want to regift doubters capitalize on the post pandemic trend

i am frank holland in for melissa lee. on the desk tonight to my right we have tim seymour, steve grasso, main line in philadelphia, go birds it's going to be a long show if you are a giants fan look at tim shaking his head the market rebound, final week of the trading was enough for the dow to reverse the third losing week in a row the nasdaq and s&p 500 still falling a little bit short up today however is trading right around its pandemic lows that's right, it's lows. a new report said finding some historic selling, value equity funds, largest weekly outflow ever hitting more than $17 billion. tax law selling likely behind the record outflows, but can this all be a setup for january buying frenzy?

great question, tim. >> buying frenzy >> frenzy. frenzy is something i'm not sure i'm ready for. i think there can be allocation. if you look at the outperformances of the industrials. if you look at different parts of the market structure that are changing with some of the reversal of flows, i think there are opportunities there. i think as we get into '23 the upgrades that are going to come from ultimately a lot of stocks actually beginning to warn and guide from the sentiment perspective we can begin to assess it. i don't think we are where we want to be in terms of earnings revisions. i don't think we are where we want to be in terms of the fed giving any kind of all clear this is the environment we have. i think it's going to be another great trading environment. you're going to have opportunities as markets have given to psee the periods, we've pulled back 8% at the cpi high i think we're going to get a lot

more of that companies like nike, we're going to talk a little bit about it in terms of big weekly movers finding high quality names that we think are names you can go to sleep with at night because of their balance sheets is what investors should be doing. >> tim says frenzy, bono is there another word for what we might be seeing coming up technically the classic definition of santa claus rally would potentially start today. >> so frenzy i'm with tim there i don't think frenzy is what you're going to see. being that it's christmas i'm going to try to reach deep down into my stocking to find something positive to say. it will come because of, one, rebalancing and there's very much an eye on fed earnings and as we get an idea of where we are in the economic cycle and how companies can deal with the economic cycle, you're going to see puts and takes as we rotate out of one cycle into another or

further entrenched in the value sector that has worked so far. i think the shift has gone from pivot. to pivot because economic expansion or the lack thereof will be to a point that we are -- the fed is forced to cut because -- you know, because -- to limit the amount of damage that's being done. i think that narrative, although we end up with the same thesis, that narrative has drastically changed. i think there's still that overhang generally speaking. >> if not frenzy stock buying furor, perhaps? >> so, yeah, i was looking for a face-ripping rally i got a stomach-kicking selloff instead. i'm hoping we're going to see some sort of a -- i would love to use your word frenzy to describe what we'll see next week i don't think we're going to see a frenzy but we can definitely

see a dull drip higher what do you always do, frank -- what don't you do? you never short a dull market. a lot of this is going to revert around with the backlog. the most important thing you can do as an investor is to look at three-year charts. you're going to encapsulate the selloff from the pandemic. if you have -- i find it hard to believe that the large majority of stocks should be trading at that level disney, trading at the pandemic level. you already nailed it. amazon is trading around that low. netflix trading around be that low. i don't think there's a reason for any of those to be there >> all right there we go. jeff, i saved the best for the last already riding a winner as it is are there some winners you want to ride in january >> won nothing yet if you want to win the super bowl in december.

>> jets over here? >> out there you need to speak to all of the other football fans. >> we're going straight to the super bowl hurts will be back i'm in a frenzy about the eagles i don't know i'm in a frenzy about the stock market here. we have some more wood to chop if you are focused on the tax law selling and the flows, i sort of think you're missing the big picture as we move into 2023 you can use whatever cliche you'd like the trend is not your friend the eb, boj, bank of england the whole central banks are going to save the day. the fed can come in, cut on a dime were now we're in the complete opposite position. i think their hands are going to be tied for a little while even though inflation is coming down. i think we're back to the normal cycle dynamics when the first rate cut is not the same thing

if the fed is going to cut like the market is currently pricing in, it's not going to be because inflation is under control and everything else is rosie i think a lot of these things are known clearly but what i don't think is priced in are earnings coming down i think that's clear and then the higher for longer the market is pricing in rate cuts i don't think it's going to happen there are plenty of risk off markers whether it's gold having outperformed the s&p 500, whether it's apple sort of testing those june lows that risk from the top that we have been talking about these are the things we need to pay attention to as we get past some of these flows and some of the things we're talking about. >> point about gold, gold up 8.4% tim, back over to you. i'm not going to talk about the eagles. >> do that the. >> we've already -- we don't want to do that. >> all right. >> let's talk big tech >> pressing buttons. >> how does big tech compare in the upcoming year compared to

what we saw this year and back to 2021? we were just boom the whole year how do you see the setup for tech >> i don't like it it was a week when longer rates went higher. i don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the 10-year probes the bottom. the boj says rates go higher what it means for equities, discount rates and some of the things that you value are part of that. i think they're under a little bit more upward pressure we talked about it last night. we brought up the chart of the qqqs or the tech companies we know and love underperforming the s&p continually. i think that's the part of where i think the market needs to get to that i don't think we're there. one more thing on frenzy frenzy happens when people are positioned the wrong way it's almost a consensus that we're going to get a fresh low in the first quarter and that the market now needs to work itself off of that

i almost feel like thinking when you're going to win the super bowl in december, it doesn't happen i think it's very similar to people expecting -- if everybody is expecting the market to bottom in the first quarter, it may not. i think the positioning sometimes also in terms of sentiment and where cash levels are are very supportive. nobody is bullish. no one has put a lot of chips under the table. those are things i think investors are going to give you trading frenzies. >> no frenzy steve, come over to you. a lot of things that pushed the nasdaq higher were the megacaps. the biggest positive addition to the nasdaq was alphabet. it was -- amazon was the most positive addition to it. santa claus rally aside, let's not look like something like that le could it be the beginning the tech stocks are beaten down. now is my time in. even though the setup with rising rates and other things are still hanging over them. >> when you look at the list that you put up there on the screen before, apple is nowhere

near the pandemic low. microsoft is nowhere near the pandemic low google is nowhere near the pandemic low i think people are looking for opportunities. do they think they're going to be in the names? the problem is is that everyone says there's never going to be the same leadership coming out as there was going in. the issue i have with that is we only talk about -- i don't mean us on the show, i mean investors predominantly talk about those six names. nobody knows midcap names. nobody knows small cap names so it's hard for anybody else to lead but them. so you need a recovery in them i don't think people think they're getting a value buying microsoft, apple, google the stofry has to be narrated you're giving a gift in price. even though tim said it, which i agree, consensus we're going to sell off in the first quarter. we're going to test the 3200,

3300 some are saying lower than that level, frank i think we have to get a major flush where people sell what they love, which is the apple and the microsoft and the google before we get that bottom. >> we're going to turn our attention to the dogs of the dow. new note, dow stocks tend be to be outperform. let's bring in carter worth, what have you got? >> let's talk about the dogs sort of a fun thing sort of developing in the 1990s. simply a dividend. picking the 10 among the 10 worst performers no, 10 stocks in the dow with the highest dividend yield which often coincides with things that have been bad performers let's look at a chart or two and try to figure out a pick what we're looking at here is a comparative chart. the dogs of the dow total return

index. mut, versus the dow jones industrial the next charge is to make a point looking at the s&p total return versus the s&p itself going back to 1990. of course, what we know is on a long-term basis in terms of being a steward of wealth and money, dividends are half the return you see it right there the total return has do you believe doubled the performance. in terms of the dogs of the dow, i have a table here. here are the top five sort of stocks with the highest dividend yield. you see there on the top, verizon. they've all had horrible years chevron is a dog of the dow this year and it's up 46% it's not percent decline, it's just dividend yield k. verizon, same charts, different annotation the first thing my eye sees is

that something of a minor bottom. another thing is to put in a down trend put the first two charts together and i think what we've got here is something in the early stages of turning. this is a value strategy, surely that yield is 6.8% for what it's worth, those who care, it's covered well almost two times. that is double the 10-year treasury yield i think you do it. the. >> carter worth not with the greatest gift of them all but a really good dog of the dow we'll see you in "options action." jeff, carter's pick is verizon the ramp up for 5g increased profitability. increased cash flow from that but what do you think about carter aemps trade if you look at the chart, it is sort of interesting. this is trading at the same price as it was in 1997, 2007, 2012 go back, the stock hasn't moved

for a very long time in those years it was trading at 15 times forward earnings. right now it's trading at half of that. with that 7% dividend yield, the thing has been sold to death i think that's part of the reason you've seen some outperformance since the october low to the tune of 5%. it's still trading at 17% or so below the 200 day moving average. the risk/reward perspective, you mentioned it >> that makes sense. what he really said that got to me is risk/reward. that was just jeff and carter there. i will say i'm buying it i am keeping the receipt i apologize. the secret is out. i love you both, but i am going to keep the -- >> good stuff. good stuff >> i do think that you can keep it because of the risk/reward but what i'm saying is in this

space, this isn't like this was a name that traded at some bloated valuation. the trading 7.5 times peak valuation of the last ten years. the knock on this was it really struggled to find growth in the personal and business. it's more operationally sound which i think is the argument to be had going forward that makes accepts for a trade where am i going for the trade >> coming up, we've got some stocking stuffers for your portfolio. the names that can be a nice g gift retail stock with a swoosh here in kansas city, missouri, whether it's currently -- w,wo weather 8 degrees with the real feel of minus 15 why go outside keep it right here for much, much more "fast money.

welcome back to "fast money. christmas is almost here our trade jerrs have hand picke some stocking stuffers which stocks made the nice list.

let's start with jeff mills. >> frank, i think we've been talking about this it's just the idea that some markets are ripe for risk taking, others are not i don't think you want to be swinging for the fences in 2023. you want to continue to look for stocks that are counter cyclical, profitable for me, that's health care and that's merck it's poised to grow earnings next year. then merck has company specific drivers. it's a little overbought but it's still below market multiple it's been my most frequent final trade. i think you stick with it as you move into next year. >> tim, what have you got? >> i have not seen the most exciting pick out there, so i'm told if you think about the emb, that's a $15 billion etf that's got a 6.5% yield based ond where a lot of these bonds are trading. they have endured the fed, endured a stronger dollar for the last year.

in the world where we live in, the biggest world in china, you can't go lower this is a great place for yield at a time when investors are looking for more creative ways forex pose sure. >> you were on the fence between that and coal. >> i'm sticking with coca-cola despite the valuation, i think the risk/reward setup here is really what you're looking for free cash flow strong gross margin. essentially have the ability to combat inflation or if you have to be in a tradedown situation, the stock holds up well. it's not going to excite anybody, but i think it's defensive. aside from valuation -- >> grasso? what are you thinking about at the grasso manor >> disney. i think streaming is going to do better the profitability. iger is back i think movies are going to do better parks are going to do better it's going to be a clean sweep

no reason this one should be trading at pandemic lows disney is a stocking stuffer. >> steve, you have an extra gift you have to tell us what it is >> so meta would be the extra one for me we see this thing split into two. everyone's worried about spending and what a drag that the meta verse is going to be on the overall. you see the stock split into two. first of all, i don't think you need the stock picked into two, it would be an enormous level. i think 2023 is probably going to be the year for meta. coming up, our chart of the week shares of one sports brand surging so how should you play the jump the details micong up. live from the market site in times square we are back after this

get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. new retinol overnight means the smoothing benefits of retinol are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. if you wanted to hold my hand... diminishes wrinkled skin in j[ gasps ]ays. all you had to do is ask. i am down to my last life. when you only have one life...

that's what makes it special. go get 'em tiger. welcome back to "fast money. it's up almost 10% over the last five sessions. that includes a marginally down day today. nike's earnings were better than expected this week digital sales surged and they tauted their success in going through their huge invep be tori backlog. so, jeff, should investors just buy it >> the earnings were clearly better than feared but i am in the recision stand for next year, no question about it the thing that's helping nike is the labor market and the consumer

i think that continues to be good and strong. companies like nike have been helped from pricing power. we heard it from foot locker i just don't think that's going to last as we push into the second and third quarter of 2023 i think the labor mark jet weakens. demand is going to fall further. for a stock trading 33 times forward earnings, that becomes a problem. it's harder to hide behind the price increases. you can stick with it for a little while i worry about it in the back half of last year. >> stocks trading right in line with the five-year average where should you be in terms of historic multiple? for a lot of stocks in discretionary, i understand the challenges jeff brings up the right ones. i think relative to lulu, apparel is a lot more resilient from -- excuse me, footwear over apparel from a sales cycle if i was getting best in class

discretionary nike and lulu, i think the tail winds that are now from the dollar, yes, the dollar is a tail wind and a gross margin dynamic are things that are going to be under appreciated. >> bonowan, last word. >> the dtc, they put more money into that. that's where the growth engines are coming i tend to agree with jeff. this is a name that we were on the other side of the table on before we're aligned here i think if you look at how we got here if you look from the mids '80s level, it's round trip to back to where it was. it's not like there's a ton of value. >> time for final trade. let's go around the horn grasso >> disney for all of the reasons why i mentioned before a great year on a bounce back trade. merry christmas to all of you gentlemen. merry christmas to everyone out

there. the. >> jeff? >> if it ain't broke, don't fix it i'm going to stick with merck. >> bonowan >> coke. coca-cola. the. >> tim >> thanks for talking eagles football with you. merry christmas to everybody at&t dogs in the dow. bigger up side than verizon. >> don't go anywhere, "fast money" is up next.

hello, world. or is it goodbye? you know, it seems like hope and trust are in short supply. [clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or... [whistles] we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities. create more equal opportunities. [clap] it's time for business to show its true worth. because it's not goodbye, world. it's hello, team earth.

[clap]

right now on "options action", the final frenzy for the last-minute christmas shopping and the flood of sales after santa says so long two retail trades straight ahead. tesla still sliding. finishing down it's so beaten up that it could be time to make you some options to charge up an ev trade. later as the s&p has limped its way through december, gold has been hanging in there quite nicely time to get bullish on bull