the dread pirate roberts at least was a criminal with some principles. the d.e.a. agent and the secret service guys, who were ripping off the silk road, were just in it for the money. ♪♪ -- captions by vitac -- it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." four more trading days in 2022 and the investors are looking to put a close to the books on the worst financial crisis. and china moves to scrap quarantine rules for international travelers. meanwhile, u.s. airlines dealing with bitter cold and high winds and snow. southwest is the biggest problem spot cancelling 70% of the flights and warns disruption

continue this week. a new report shows american shoppers were resilient this year despite surging prices. a country music star is joining a growing chorus against ticketmaster it is tuesday, december 27th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in fo brr brian sullivan let's kickoff the hour with the dow up gaining steam up 209 points the s&p up 27 points the nasdaq up 69 although relatively muted trading volumes as you would expect in the week we are heading into the final trading week of the year here is how the major averages are standing dow down 9% on the year to date

and s&p down 19 p% at this stag. nasdaq shed one-third of the value during that time span. all three are looking to break winning streaks and turn in the worst performance since 2008 in the bond market, yields are the centerpiece this year. 10-year treasury yield is drifting slightly lower. 3.745% the 2-year treasury is 3.34% the 30-year treasury is 3.81%. in energy, oil prices are moving to the up side over the last couple weeks that trend continues today wti crude prices are $80.10. that is up 55 cents. ice brent crude up 59 cents to the $84.51

natural gas is $5.16 we are seeing bitcoin on the move and eyeing that $16,000 range for bitcoin prices currently $16,873. .50% gains for ethereum at $1,222.66. let's check on the trading in europe and shanghai is closing 1% higher as china officially announced it will end quarantine rules for travelers on january 8th elsewhere in asia, hong kong and australia and new zealand were closed for the christmas holiday extension. in europe, the uk is closed for public the holiday in early trading, dax up .20%. the ftse mib is up slightly. in corporate news, major

trouble for southwest airlines silvana henao has details. good morning, silvana. >> good morning, dom airlines have canceled 17,000 flights since wednesday after being forced to deal with cold and high winds and snow. many problems have eased, but not southwest. the airline canceled 70% of the flights yesterday and the trouble is not over yet. disruption will continue this week ceo bob jordan says they plan to operate one-third of the schedule as it tries to get operations back on track among the reasons for the problems is bad local weather. southwest flight rules and shortage in denver and crew scheduling system overwhelmed and left workers in the wrong places the department of transportation is looking into the situation calling southwest rates of cancellations unacceptable dom, southwest shares this

morning in the pre-market are lower. 3.5% >> thank you forks the headline back to the market investors head into the final trading days of 2022 sh stocks looking to close out the year the worst since 2008. could the friday rally bring a santa rally to year end? we have ben emons with us now. ben, we want to talk about it because these are stronger seasonal tendencies. we sound like broken records talking about the santa rally. it is a thing. the last two of this year and next two of next year. >> good morning, dom if you look at the chinese

reopening, that is a catalyst for a santa claus rally. the chinese reopening story, i think, is the macro story for next year. as you highlighted in the segment before, stock market down between 8% and 30% and the yield curve and oil prices up points to the recession scenario next year. the chinese reopening is something of a counterweight to the snocenario. if it does fully reopen, all of the structures you have seen p in factories and trade will all be limited i think that will be positive for markets. for that reason, you see a little bit of a rally in the next few days to digest the scenario of the fully reopening chinese economy. >> is that something we should extrapolate to the medium to longer-term trend?

that is a macro factor the world's second biggest economy. is it enough alongside headlines in the united states to have more of a rally in the first half of the year or are we d destined for a choppy trading range? >> we are on the side of the chopping trading range china reopening is a big factor. it would drive commodity demand and trade and i guess inv investment, too. we know this is not the way it is happening in the united states or europe where you have a sudden surge of activity i think in china it will happen in stages. secondly, we deal with inflation. it is moderating, but i think to many others that have pointed out if china reopens, that demand will push up inflation again. i can tell from the crude markets recovered from the lows of $70 to $80 or so.

that is the indication of the headline cpi may not moderate as fast as some people think. that keeps the stock market in a bind that will lead to the federal receive to maintain the hawkish language and potentially hiking more than what people discount we are in the choppy trading range for the first half. >> ben, those are the macro big picture factors affecting markets right now. we are on the cusp of another earnings season. one highly scrutinized because we want to see if the fed interest rate hikes have slowed down the economy and have hurt, perhaps, corporate earnings. do you think corporate earnings story remains in tact as we head into the coming earnings season? >> i think this is a significant difference with sectors, dom industrials have done quite well i think that probably has to do with a fair bit of activity going on in the economy that

these companies can out perform as a result and anticipate better earnings. you go to thefinancials or the cyclicals including tech, then i think people are worried about it that component will present in the first half while you have the difficult market over last few weeks and one thing with erarnings and margins, although inflation has come up a lot and consumers continue to be willing to spend despite high inflation and in the end, irony could roll off fast and affect margins negatively i think the earnings season in the first quarter will be challenged by the fact that the pricing power is eroding as a result, it puts pressure on the earnings. >> so, ben, you are a portfolio manager and stratstrategist.

you are trying to position funds in the best way appropriate for the quarters for the future. what does that positioning look like are you heavier in cash right now or more into bonds with yields or equities still attractive what is the mix? >> the mix is on the one hand defensive. we like materials and energy and health care. these are themes that have played out this year this hasn't played out entirely yet. the is up side and the recession scenario is not imminent maybe more earnings recession and energy and healthcare and material sectors are actually better positioned for the earnings recession high cash flow companies on the other hand, bonds have become more interesting. the difference is the treasury

yields show the front of the yield curve with the fed tightening cycle and we believe 3.34% is more attractive than the 3.54% on the 10-year treasury we deal with geopolitical tensions and energy shock on the chinese reopening. general uncertainty if the economy will fall into the recession, yes or no, and that leads to keeping cash on the sideline granted, you can invest at the short end of the yield curve. >> you hear more portfolio managers talk about the two-year treasury note yields ben emons, thank you have a great new year. >> happy new year. when we come back, winter storms and freezing temperatures sending natural gas and heating oil prices higher. no shock tre 'll have details when

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the global energy crisis and need to find alternatives as countries move away from russian oil were themes this year. despite that, clean energy stocks are in the red for 2022 pippa stevens has more >> good morning, come. it should be a good year for energy stocks.

the first due to the russian i infi invasion of ukraine. sec second, the u.s. government spend the largest climate spending bill on record. clean energy fund is down 46% for 2022 the first trust nasdaq clean edge fund lost 28% solar, wind and hydrogen etfs also in the red. several factors weighed on the industry and rising rates and broad rotation out of growth and production delays and policy uncertainty around key proposals. there are notable out performers, including solar, first solar and maxin in the green.

dom, the broad high level theme here is one of under performance for 2022 >> pippa, clean energy is not the only area of the market suffering this year. what should we expect for 2023 what is the outlook for these types of companies >> analysts and investors say despite 2022's performance, there is positive momentum looking forward especially since stocks remain below pre-i.r.a. levels this transition will not happen overnight. with that in mind, jpmorgan chase said they view 2022 as a game changer with thing energy security spotlight and an -- and there is a rich environment for 2023 and goldman looks at the areas investors should focus on. they said to prioritize domestic companies due to the tailwinds

from the i.r.a. like solar edge. >> pippa, we know interest rates are a part of the discussion for investors. thank you very much for the check on clean energy. let's shift focus on the broader energy complex crazy year for prices which sparked in february with the russian invasion of ukraine and then again in june 6% and 8% for crude and ice brent. down 30% from the peak we saw in early march. there are still some wild cards for the sector in 2023 including whether or not russia cuts off more supply to europe and reopening of the chinese economy. let's talk more about this with rebecca babin at cibc private wealth rebecca, this is the time we take stock on the year we saw. it was a roller coaster ride for prices does that mean exthat traders md

a lot of money or does this mean you will become profitable >> generally, volatility is an environment where traders can make a lot of money. i think some traders did this year of t year however, there was a miss con se misconcepiton with the trader in the start of the year. everyone got on one side of the boat and leaned hard into that long it seems there were not many voices spewing that bearish side of the trade i think people did get sucked in to that trade. i call it the jedi mind trick. we saw forced liquidations occur where people could not continue

to make money in the market. they got chopped up. i think this environment, although volatility is great for traders, this particular year has been a little bit tougher on the trading community and caused significant losses. >> rebecca, can you tell us from your perspective what is happening with the crude curve the futures curve? it feels it is a transitional stage in 2022. we see areas where future oil prices are higher than lower or current ones we see teams with future oil prices than less than current prices right now how does that shift affect how traders view what is happening with oil prices in 2023? >> you bring up a great point, dom. the crude is the holy grail for traders. this is a sign the demand is

weaker than what you are expecting in the future. it incentivizes you to score crude as opposed to selling on the open market because the demand isn't there we have gone through a huge shift from a severely backward curve showing a spurring of people on. don't fall for the low has the curve shifted, it is a reflection that the spot may not have been and strong as most have been anticipating it has shaken the conviction of the bulls out there. that was a large part of why we saw people abandon ship on the longs. when i look out further in the curve and how scompressed it is and the catalysts we have which is not just russia supply offline, but it pertains to the

spr which is no longer a buffer. we have released 280 million barrels of spr so far this year. that's a huge number when that rolls off and we switch into needing to refill the spr, we are going to see a lot more support under the commodity. the second thing that supports the commodity and the back end of the curve is opec opec will continue to support crude. they want stable markets they will not let it fall into free-fall as they have done in the past the reason they are able to do that without consequence is u.s. production is growing at a slower rate than the past and not afraid of losing that market share. >> rebecca babin, thank you very much happy new year >> thank you. still to come this morning, a country music star is joining a growing chorus against ticketmaster we've got those details when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break

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good morning well come back to "worldwide exchange." futures this morning are big

with the dow implied higher 212 points s&p up 27 and nasdaq up 67 points we have a deadly winter storm stretching from the great lakes near canada to the rio grande. we have brie jackson with more dom, dozens of deaths in new york blamed on the onesce in a lifetime blizzard. the death toll from the weekend blizzard continues to climb as authorities in erie county, new york discover more victims. >> died in the car died outside from exposure died with snow shovel or cardiac event. >> reporter: additional snowfall is expected today. the national guard is assisting. the white house says the federal government is ready to come to the state's aid declaring a state of emergency

tweeting this photo of president biden reaching out to governor hochul on monday >> the most important thing is stay home for the next day >> reporter: the winter weather is causing traffic a emchaos. >> we are asking people to stay off the roads. >> reporter: and at airports nationwide delaying 8,000 flights on the day after christmas and 4,000 canceled >> we have been stuck for a good 18 hours now >> complete and utter zoo and chaos. >> reporter: and the problems aren't over. southwest warning disruption continue this week as the airline operating one-third of the schedule for the next few days according to flight aware, airlines have canceled 17,000 u.s. flights since last wednesday. dom. >> brie jackson, stay safe we appreciate the report.

let's check on the other top headlines with phillip mena in new york city with the latest. good morning, phillip. >> good morning, dom the russian military reports it shot down a ukrainian drone at the air base deep inside russia. this is the second time the base has been targeted this month three soldiers were killed by falling debris ukraine has not acknowledged the attack. lottery fever continues to heat up. nobody took home the jackpot last night the new grand prize is $215 million. get your tickets ready tonight's megamillions jackpot is $565 million. after a christmas break, the college bowl season picked up in detroit. pavia came up big for new mexico state.

aggies won the quick lane bowl 24-19. that gave jerry kill his first bowl win in six tries as head coach. four more games on the docket today. and the birmingham bowl. dom, we have games every single day for at least another week. >> 'tis the season thank you, phillip mena. coming up, the top corporate stories and from quiet quitting to loud layoffs. trends in the labor market heading into 2023. if you haven't done so already, follow our podcast. if you miss "worldwide exchange" here on television or sirius, check us out on apple or spotify or other podcast apps. we'll be right back.

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a developing story at airports across the country. southwest cancelling 70% of flights just yesterday and warning mass disruption will continue ringing up holiday sales of the a new report shows americans were resilient this year and a country music star joining the growing chorus against ticketmaster you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc

welcome back to the show i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan today just about 5:32 a.m. on the east coast here here is how stock futures are shaping up dow implied higher 228 s&p up 28. nasdaq higher by 73. in the bond market, 10-year treasury is drifting slightly lower to 3.75% the 2-year treasury drifting higher to 4.34%. to the top stories with silvana henao. good morning, silvana. dom, good morning. airlines have canceled 17,000 flights since wednesday after dealing with bitter cold and

high winds and snow. many problems have eased, but not for southwest. the airline canceled more than 70% of the flights yesterday and ceo bob jordan says southwest plans to operate one third of the schedule the next couple days to get back on track. an momong the reasons for the problems is bad local weather. they have a staffing shortage in denver and crew scheduling system overwhelmed and left workers in the wrong places. a new report finds holiday sales rose 6% this year. that is a smaller increase from the prior year, but still ahead of estimates the number comes from mastercard spending polls which tracks payments, including cash and debit cards. and zach bryan dropped a live album called "all my homies hate ticketmaster. he made a statement calling it a

massive issue over ticket prices to live shows. dom. >> silvana henao, thank you. from quiet quitting to loud layoffs. a year of ups and downs for the labor market as investors look to the jobs data for insight on the state of the economy and inflation. companies now are deciding to add more jobs or return to the pre-pandemic head counts according to zip recruiter, december and january have been the months of peak employee terminations with hiring showing a dip in january and february. with more industries predicting a recession in 2023, will the trends continue? let's ask julia pollak at zip recr recruiter. julia, we think zip recruiter is the place to find jobs and employers look to find employees. how many of the trends we saw in

2022, post-pandemic, how many will remain in 2023? >> it remains a tight labor market quits are still very elevated with people hopping industries half of people quitting are not staying in the same industry industry hopping will remain big. we can expect, you know, some degree of quiet quitting and quick quitting to go on. for employers, the big issue is employee experience. >> speaking of employee experience, what exactly, then, do employers have to do to get those employees to want to sign on with them beyond just say one or two weeks or three weeks and keep them for the medium to long-term? >> many people they maxed out on pay raises and perks the thing we are seeing now is the deciding factor which is

speed in hiring. in a survey of people hired in the last six months, more than 9 90% of the current employer, the employer got back to them within one week one week dom, that means companies are being almost ludicrously fast with hiring processes at the moment they know that is a make or break issue. >> if that is the make or break issue, let's talk about the themes with regard to employment for 2023 on the numbers front and industry front we have spoken a lot with many guests that many of the layoffs we have seen publicized are isolated to perhaps parts of the media industry and tech and telecom. many blue collar and manufacturing jobs have been unaffected by layoffs. is that the right assessment

>> you can go further. right now on main street, layoffs and terminations are lower by 500,000 a month than normal typically about 1.9million people are laid off or fired in the u.s. economy everyone. that is more like 1.4 million. the layoffs happening in tech are not only being completely offset by the lack of layoffs everywhere else, but even if you look within tech, many of the layoffs are relatively small as a share of head count and as a share of head count growth over the past two years companies in tech are going back a couple of months with head count. in the red of thst of the counte are making up lost ground. >> do you expect the jobs market will remain strong and resilient in 2023 or are the threats of recession going to make it so that fed policy and policies with regard to slowing down the economy overall will ultimately

have a negative impact on the jobs market next year? >> right now, the agencies and economists can't figure out what happened with jobs in the second quarter let alone predict the future there was a disagreement with various key government surveys about whether the economy created 100,000 jobs in the second quarter of 2022 or 1 million jobs tremendous uncertainty about the past let alone the future. here is what we predict. number one, inflation will continue to slow good surprises are going to come down or hold steady. that means the fed will be able to hold that terminal rate throughout the year at 5% to 5.2% it will continue to be patient if inflation doesn't come down to 2% right away sometimes it takes three or four years in past episodes that means prices will come down faster than wage growth. so after two years of negative

wage losses, the u.s. consumer is now going to see wage growth again. real wage growth expanding purchasing power that means the u.s. consumer could actually continue to be resilient and we may actually narrowly avoid recession despite the recession prediction models and saying it is likely high in the coming year. >> julia pollak. glass half full. thank you very much. happy new year >> you, too. coming up on the show, what investors need to know about 2023 and the agenda on capitol hill stay tuned yoaru e watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc hey dad, i'm almost out. i got you. any questions, chris? all good, thanks maura! there you go, one new inhaler! nice did you get my refill too? maybe

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's turn to washington, d.c. and ask investors about the agenda for the nation's capitol. we have kayla tausche with the playbook for the year. >> reporter: good morning, dom officials say a few priorities are taking top billing in 2023 as president biden weighs whether to run for re-election number one is the war in ukraine. nearing the second year and challenging western democracy and up ending commodities markets with no end in sight janet yellen told "60 minutes"

earlier this month it underpins the goals. >> you said ending russia's war against ukraine is the single best thing we can do for the global economy do you see any evidence that end is in sight? >> we are doing everything we can to bring this war to a conclusion of course, we're providing considerable help to ukraine both military and economic >> reporter: the white house is doing all it can to avert a recession and keeping its head down over spending manand making sure they don't get in the way and if anything, the data flow is support to the credible path to steady growth we know that does not dismiss the risks that are out there finally, the china relationship is entering uncharted territory.

new technology controls and the new congress will consider are trade restrictions they call it a sea change to reset relations here which will have an impact on the market, dom. >> kayla, i wonder with the three major themes in focus right now, the playbook for the biden administration has been criticized for not addressing from the public relations standpoint or communications standpoint some of the victories they had what can this administration do in the coming year to highlight some of the victories they had many of the topics you spoke of were the issues that the trump administration were doing as well and now carried forward with the biden administration. how does the conversation go >> reporter: dom, the administration would disagree and say they have their cabinet and deputy secretaries pounding

the pavement talking about the achievements the message hasn't landed with main street america because inflation is the fly in the o ointment the administration would argue the results from the mid-term elections would be proof positive the policies they pursued are popular and are working. of course, there are a lot of variables, dom, that could change that in the next year. >> kayla tausche good to see you in new york city >> good to see you. let's move from the white house on pennsylvania avenue and constitution avenue to the u.s. capitol and the items congress will look at next week joining me now is ed mills at raymraymond james. ed, the focus for the administration in what we want to talk about for the coming year

what does congress have to do to get its message across to america to help every day americans with their state of life and inflation overall >> good morning, dom i think numberone for congress is to pick a speaker the republicans are not yet settled on who they want to lead the house of representatives in that role. why that's important to markets is the way in which they choose the speaker and some of the rules the house of representatives come up with will be telling for what legislation comes especially with issues with debt limit. the topics are the tough on china bill we have seen them push back that they are not going far enough. with bipartisan legislation, that is top of agenda there. there is a to-do list that hasn't been completed from 2022.

energy permitting bill which is important for the inflation reduction act. tax cuts expire. the research and development tax credit really is important and it hasn't been hit with company was high expenses. a lot of the hangovers from 2022 >> ed, with that in mind, if that is the case,what exactly will the first three or four months look like how will the speaker selection process play out in your snmind how will that change over what is prioritized in the agenda what comes after the speaker is inst installed? >> dom, the way in which the race is likely to play out is more likely than not this goes to beyond one ballot we haven't seen that in the last 100 years in the house of representatives. for an individual to capture majority of the vote in the

house, there may be rule changes that give more power to individual members or individual groups kevin mccarthy is the speaker designee for his party does it go to him or go to steve scalise? after that, the most important thing for congress to do is finish what they didn't do before they left this year which is the expiring tax provisions that needed to get done that are not done hopefully they can get that done sooner rather than later so people who file on april 15th don't have though expiring provisions in effect >> ed, there has been a school of thought over the years and decades at this point with regard to u.s. politics that the intersection of wall street and k street that a gridlocked washington, d.c. is the best thing for the economy and the

best thing for business when governments cannot do stuff to inhibit businesses from doing what they do best. that is the best thing for the economy. are we going to expect gridlock in 2023 with the dynamic in congress >> i think the baseline is fewer things will get done, dom. that doesn't mean there aren't bipartisan things out there. i highlighted the debt limit i'm also looking to see the implosion in crypto. does that lead to some bipartisan infrastructure of regulation for that industry we look at, you know, regulation how does congress influence the legislation and regulatory process. we could see big things and i highlight if we go into recession, i don't expect a significant legislative response is the political window closing

for the fed? is there going to be bipartisan criticism of the federal reserve that will have massive influence on monetary policy decisions because the fed will be concerned for the 2024 election that they are going to be part of the conversation and would we see congress change the mandate? ultimately it is congress that dictates how the federal reserve ope operates they are independent, but a credation of government. >> ed mills at raymond james thank you. coming up on the show, stocks may suffer the rough evi est year since the financial crisis. we will talk to a top money manager coming up next for that look your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall. thankfully, the breakthrough in prevagen helps your brain and actually improves memory.

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southwest airlines canceled 70% of the flights yesterday country music artist zach bryan calls out ticketmaster for the unfair ticket prices to his live shows. holiday sales rose 7.6% this year ahead of the economist estimates. china announces travelers will no longer need to quarantine starting january 8th. and tesla will have a reduced schedule at the shanghai plant next month the c the company faces a wave of infections of covid among workers and supplies. and twitter asks a federal

court to discard a lawsuit filed by employees. and we have greg sarian with us to talk about the market. greg, this is a market that is trying to find footing do you expect any positivity in early 2023 >> good morning, dom thank you for having me back please don't shoot the mes messenger. we expect continued volatility especially as we start 2023. we expect earnings to be choppy through the first quarter. when we see a pause, dom, in the march timeframe, we see the fed pivoting. >> how bad does it get in the first three months of the year before the hypothetical scenario where the fed has a chance to think about perhaps slowing

things down? >> this fed is telling us what they will do and they do it. we believe that despite the slowdown you are seeing in auto sales and housing sales, we continue to see a strong labor market that will keep the fed focused on raising rates, dom, into the february and march timeframe most of the damage has been done it creates an opportunity in the uni bond market. we don't believe it will be in the process likely until spring and probably return. >> greg, this is interesting you are not the first financial adviser to bring up muni bonds you think bonds are a better investment in the coming year? >> i won't say the coming year, but quarter. for investors looking to put cash to wourk, you are yielding

3.5% that is close to 5.5% on the taxable basis. 1-year treasuries is over 4% if the data points continues to slow, the fed could lower rates in 2024. that means now is a good time to lock in the muni deals >> that's the muni side. i wonder in the last few moments here, let's talk about the equities is it the value trade versus growth is it still quality over the more interest rate sensitive t sectors? where is the stock portfolio going? >> you have to be careful, dom, and drip money cash rich into high dividend companies. tech or telecom is not coming back until the fed stops raising rates and credit markets stabilize. that could be several quarters

out. >> all right greg sarian, thank you very much that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. futures pointing to the upside keep it here "squawk box" is coming up next we will see you tomorrow cvs can help you support your nutrition, sleep, immune system, energy ...even skin. so healthier can look a lot like...you. cvs. healthier happens together. why are 93% of sleep number sleepers satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can adjust your comfort and firmness on either side. your sleep number setting. to help relieve pressure points and keep you both comfortable all night. the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is only $899 - save $200. ends monday if you run a small business, you need the most from every investment. that's why comcast business gives you more. more innovation... with our new gig-speed wi-fi, plus unlimited data. more speed... from the largest, fastest, reliable network... and more savings- up to 60% a year on comcast business mobile.

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good morning investors ready to close out the year with just four trading days left in 2022 we'll tell you what could move the markets this week. china scrapping the last vestiges of the zero covid policy he leaeliminating strict quaran rules. and southwest in hot water this morning with the department of transportation. this after cancelling 70% of flights. now the d.o.t. wants answers

it is tuesday, december 27th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm kayla tausche with andrew ross sorkin. joe and becky are off today. >> good to see you >> it was a wonderful christmas. i was here immediately post christmas on this show with joe last year. i was doing it from my attic because everybody in the world had omicron. the world was very different it is lovely >> everybody has the chills. >> it was frigid