they had to kind of manually book everything. they're trying to explain to their own staff what happened. so one of the major debacles that we've seen. you're right, the brittleness that covid delivered - >> also, 20 degrees, they don't do that. they don't do 20. >> no, they don't. guys, thank you for watching "power lunch" today. >> "closing bell" begins right now. stocks mostly lower as we kick off the final trading week of the year. the dow giving up a triple digit gain, the nasdaq down more than 1% this is a make-or-break hour for your money welcome to "closing bell." i'm sarah eisen. take a look at where we stand in the market the s&p down about .4% it's not all red today, pockets of green like energy, commodities are doing really, really well off the reopening scene in china, loosening more travel restrictions overnight,

causing an asian rally the nasdaq down 1.3% part of the stor are you, 10-year note yields climbing higher, highest since mid-november as bonds sell off that's hitting tech tooks. tesla, nvidia, apple, amazon, ts getting slammed yet again on concerns about production in china. look at the stock, down more than 9%. we'll talk about that in just a moment with a bullish analyst. also ahead, former macy's ceo terry lundgren joins us to talk about the holiday retail scorecard and his outlook for the consumer in the new year tesla plunging the latest move lower comes as "the wall street journal" reports tesla will extend a production shutdown at its shanghai plant amid rising covid cases in that country. tesla on track for its worst year ever down more than 40% this month the majority of analysts still have a buy rating on the stock,

according to fact set. joining us is one of those bullish analysts, george, why are you maintaining a buy on a $275 price target on this stock as it craters? >> hey, sara, happy holidays, thank you for having me. i understand and most participants understand what's happening with tesla stock the data points have been exceedingly negative for several weeks, even several months the latest is that one of the competitors in china, neo, preannounced negatives they're not hitting their numbers for q4, after giving that guidance not so long ago. our hope medium to long-term is that what's happening in china, which appears to be cyclical and not secular, will rebound, are particularly, as you mentioned, we have a reopening. as we work through this stuff in china, we think that ev sales can rebound, probably in the second half of 2023. >> what has happened to

estimates for next year, for revenues and profits how significantly have they come down for tesla, if at all? >> they've come down a bit we reduced our numbers from a little over 2 million vehicle sales in 2023 to 1.9 million vehicle sales. and they may have to go lower. we listened to elon musk on twitter spaces end of last week, he decided -- sounded decidedly negative we think that maybe our esp margin assumptions might be a little too high for next week. we're all waiting with bated breath for the delivery numbers to come out after the turn of the year, for the earnings calls in january, february we'll see how far the numbers have to go our view is what's happening now to tesla and auto sales in general is cyclical, not secular. after we get past whatever it is we're going through, from an economic perspective, ev sales will rebound and the secular trend toward evs will continue we think through this economic downturn, tesla will come out stronger competitively than they

came into it. >> but even if it's cyclical, are you not concerned that with tesla facing some real demand questions for the first time in years, and supply issues as well in china, the ceo is preoccupied running twitter? >> look, you have a really good point. elon musk is on twitter a lot. but as far as i can recall, he was on twitter a lot before this all happened and yes, he has more duties now, being the ceo. he's pledged to investors that he'll relinquish those duties and focus more on software he's a with guy. clearly he's had a lot of balls to juggle for many years he's thrown more into the mix with twitter but we've always been impressed with the way he's come through these things, whether it's with tesla worries, early in the 2000s, then in 2018 when people thought the company was going bankrupt we're making the best bet that he'll come through this, he has good people in place at tesla,

eventually at twitter, to manage both and come through the downturn successfully. >> the other knock against this one, it has to do with a lot what was we're seeing in the nasdaq this year, there's a massive valuation correction happening with higher interest rates. if we are facing even higher interest rates next year and higher interest rates for longer, a lot of the stocks that were highly inflated over the last few years, all the stimulus, tesla's a poster child of that, isn't it, have to come down to earth? >> it's a really good point. so the way we comp tesla is relative to other tech companies. we think tesla is a tech company that makes electric vehicles so when we look -- again, you know, next year, maybe into 2024, a cyclical downturn and some estimates have to come down after 2024, 2025, we're pretty confident in our numbers and in 2025, we have close to $11 in nongap earnings

you look at the stock today relative to other large cap tech stocks, whether google, alphabet, apple, we think it's incredibly attractively valued, particularly for the growth. we think over a five-year period this is a 30% to 50% growth company. that's a lot higher than those comps. >> all right, thank you very much, george, for joining me appreciate it. from cars to planes. scores of americans are still dealing with travel issues caused by deadly winter storms over the weekend and southwest airlines taking the brunt, canceling 70% of its flights on monday, thousands more today in hopes of resetting its operation. senator markey and blumenthal coming down hard saying, southwest cannot avoid this claiming recent storms southwest executivesage knowledged the massive cancelations were largely due to the failure of its own internal

system karl arnold, "dallas morning news" where southwest airlines is based along with "wall street journal's" allison cider it's great to have you here. i know you know each other from this overlapping beat. i wonder how much of this is southwest's problem specifically, allison. you spoke to the ceo or how much we can blame the weather? >> yeah, i think the problem started for all airlines last week the weather was the culprit. it was a huge storm that swept across most of the country that creates problems for any airline. as the weather started to recede, southwest in particular had much more difficulties than any other airline. so i think at this point, other airlines are largely back to to normal and southwest is still seeing huge disruption. >> kyle, how bad is it >> this is one of the worst kind of incidents, weather events that southwest has ever seen especially the way it's gotten worse and worse over the last couple of days thursday and friday were an

issue. but it's giving -- there's hundreds more cancelations every day. now we're looking at maybe through this week to seeing these heavy number of cancelations and people are going to be stranded southwest isn't selling tickets right now for these flights because they know they might have to cancel them down the road. >> so allison, all the politicians are jumping on the bandwagon. what is southwest offering at this point in terms of compensation >> what they've said is that if you opt not to travel or can't travel because your flight was canceled, you're entitled to a refund they put up a website which links to an email where you can send receipts if you had to rent a car or hotel they're saying they'll reimburse reasonable travel expenses we'll see how that plays out yeah, like kyle said, there aren't a lot of options on southwest flights right now for rebooking. so some people either have to find another airline or might be stuck for several days. >> why is this -- kyle, why is

this happening so much worse at southwest? is it a management issue, execution issue, technology issue? what is is the cult prit here? >> i think some would say a little bit of all of the above that southwest didn't cancel enough flights ahead of this they knew this storm was coming. them and other airlines offered people the chance to rebook. they had the opportunity to reduce their flight schedule really, the company is blaming a scheduling software. essentially they've seen this over and over the last year and a half when there's a weather event, even a minor weather event, people start getting -- flight attendants aren't the places they expected them to be down the line, pilots the same. it just cascades it builds up into one of these events until they have enough time to sort it all out. >> yeah, i mean, the politician outrage, the mark e. blumenthal statement, they go after the dividends. south west is planning to issue a $428 million dividend, the

company can afford to do right by its consumers they harmed i wonder how much political pressure this company is going to have to face? >> airlines have been in the political hot seat for several months southwest, but rivals also have had a fairly difficult recovery from the pandemic. earlier this year and last year, several of these kinds of major cancelation events not quite to this question i think they have managed through it thanksgiving went incredibly smoothly, i think they thought everything was back on track this is kind of a setback for that >> so kyle, bottom line, it's getting warmer out certainly in the northeast, temps are changing dramatically. does this mean they can figure this out quickly >> the question is the big holiday weekend coming up this weekend, it's going to be people returning home from college, families that have long breaks so it's going to be really tight at airports again. southwest isn't going to have margin for error if they can't figure this out in the next day

or two. >> it's a lot of pressure, but seems like a big mess-up thank you for joining me, good to have both of you, allison and kyle. after the break, is it time to rethink the classic 60/40 portfolio stocks to bonds? after a rough year this year, we'll talk to an expert who's turning the model upside down for the new year. the dow is hanging on to a gain of 66 points. i mentioned the pressure is really coming on technology. consumer discretionary communication services and information tech respect worst-performing sectors in the market video, tesla, apple weighing on the market in particular. "closing bell," we'll be right back

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welcome back to "closing bell." chinese stocks rallying as the country continues to ease its zero covid policies. overnight, china saying it will stop now requiring quarantine for inbound travelers by january 8th. this even as the nation reportedly faces daily covid cases in the tens of millions. let's bring in tara ari haren, hedge fund nwi management. great to have you on the show. don't get to talk to you too often. i know you're head of research at the macro fund, has about $3 billion under management and focuses specifically on emerging markets and china so how are you guys thinking about how bullish this reopening story really is? >> thanks so much for having me, sara my sense that why china has recently loosened its covid controls at an unusually rapid pace, we're going to face a

bumpy ride for china's covid reopenings for at least the first half of 2023 we can already see that we're not getting enough clarity on cases from the chinese government in my view, while chinese stocks are reacting bullishly to the reopening hypothesis, some of this is just front-running economic activity which i think will take some time. because a relatively cautious chinese consumer will take awhile to start spending back at prepandemic levels as we also know, china has a lot of other problems that are holding growth back, including overtightening on its index property section for my personal belief, until home buyer sentiment in china turns positive, we cannot call all-clear for the consumer and chinese growth. >> even with the stimulus that they are going to and have all righted embarking on they've got space, fiscal and monetary, don't they >> they do have space. the problem is the growth market

multipliers for that space we saw in 2022 fiscal stimulus done, we heard about infrastructure investment going up the problem is, the property sector is such a behemoth and the consumer is so slow that even pickup on the infrastructure side has not really been enough at this stage. so we really need property and consumers to click back before we can call a bottom for chinese growth. >> the other interesting side effect might be on u.s. bond yields and potentially on global inflation, tara. the bond sell-off today, yields are higher, technologies getting wrecked, commodity prices are higher how do you see the interplay between the china reopening potentially influencing this global inflation threat that we have is it going to make the fed's job tougher? >> while it may take a little while for the china reopening to fully manifest, we do think it's going to be net inflationary, particularly in terms of oil prices later on when we get some trades

and talking about that a little more, as an overall global macro concept, i think one multiple market shock we saw in 2022 was this collapse of the usual 60/40 model with 60% stocks, 40% bonds usually being an easy play but this year both sides have performed poorly and to deal with that for 2023 in our portfolio construction, we at nwi are planning to allocate a 20/80 ratio basically a much bigger weight towards fixed income i'm happy to talk about the exact details later. the basic concept is inflation is going to stay high and yield is finally back. we are finally merging from the negative interest rate payer dime so yield curves for the u.s. in particular, but for most developed markets and even some emerging markets, they're underpricing the higher for longer rate scheme that we have been hearing several central bankers communicating clearly to the marks.

so in spite of the central bank hawkishness, the markets are expecting more muted fed hikes, and even pricing rate hikes next year even for the u.s. data so far. >> so you think that's wrong 80% in bonds so that includes in the u.s. globally, and only 20% in stocks you think it's going to be another bumpy year >> exactly this is mainly because of our thesis that the fed is going to stay higher for longer and we also think that u.s. growth forecasts that are underestimating the u.s. investment boost in the next several years from the very muscular u.s. government-led investment initiatives recently announced, particularly related to shifting supply chains in technology away from china and back to north america. while this is on the margin growth positive, we think it's much more significant from the point of view of being hawkish >> i want to just hit a couple you've got interesting currency trades on for next year. it speaks to a lot of the themes

that investors are paying attention to globally. you're long mexico, short china in currency, why did you pick mexico specifically as a beneficiary against china? >> so mexico is going to benefit exactly present what i mentioned before, u.s. supply chain, near shorting, reshorting until we believe the mexican economy will be able to take off the next couple of years thanks to the support from the united states and from strong u.s. growth on the other hand, as we kind of discussed, sara, china's covid reopening is going to have ups and downs. because the chinese consumer and the property sector are unlikely fully revive until the second half the 2023, we think it's safe at least the first half the year to remain short china's offshore currency while we go along the mexican peso >> really interesting. especially today when people are feeling more bullish about china, to get that out of consensus view tara, thank you for joining me with ideas for next year,

appreciate it. >> thank you so much, happy halliday. >> happy holidays to you. 40 minutes left in trading the dow is inching a bit higher, up about 79 points or so it's a divergence because you've got strength in energy today utilities, stipples, industrials are higher materials and financials also just clicked higher. the nasdaq still under pressure, down 1.25% textiles off partly because maybe that sell-off in bonds with treasury yields a bit higher as far as what is working the best, it is the energy sector with oil prices higher off the china news retail sales growing by nearly 8% during the holiday season according to brand-new data from mastercard it lag ged the jump from last year formeracs my'ceo terry lundgren here to help us make sense of the data and his outlook for 2023 2023 dow's up 80. w, as businesses we can blame and shame.

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welcome back to "closing bell." a new report from mastercard says u.s. retail spending increased by 7.6% from last year this holiday season. that was higher than its initial forecast but does lag lag last year's pop joining me to break down winners and losers, former macy's ceo and chairman terry lundgren, retail expert. i don't know what to make of the data it's not inflation adjusted. we have a 7.1% inflation rate. couldn't it just be that we have to spend more on all this stuff we're buying for the holidays? >> well, first of all, i'm thrilled with the numbers. because last year was a record unbelievable 8.5% last year in the holiday season so to put that type of increase on top of last year's numbers, sara, i think was quite extraordinary. it just shows you that the consumer has money to spend and is willing to spend and they showed that these last weeks what is the perception of where they're spending there's a gap that's widening between goods and services for

sure >> definitely. i think that gap will accelerate we saw a drawback to goods during the pandemic. but it was strongly in favor of services prior to that i see it going back to that norm again in 2023. so i see purchases on services and entertainment and travel, hospitality, food, restaurants, all those categories i think are going to benefit in 2023 when that shift occurs. >> i feel like one of the biggest questions for the market next year, terry, is what happens with the u.s. consumer does she hang in there because the story of this year is that, yes, the growth was better better than the rest of the world. now we're dealing with not only the inflation shock but a rate shock as well. the housing market is hurting. the stock market is hurting, which hurts people's retirement accounts can the u.s. consumer hold up amid all these headwinds next

year >> the answer to your question, can the consumer hold up, is yes. let me just talk that through a little bit so there's clearly more money in the savings accounts in total, particularly for this middle household income consumer, than there was in 2019. and that's thank you to the stimulus packages that were generated in 2020, 2021. there's still plenty of money. talking over $1 trillion in additional savings with consumers. that's a positive. they're spending it like -- they're spending it aggressively that's been good for the economy. it's keeping the economy going, sara but the one number -- by the way, wages have been good. so obviously with the wages rising 6%, that's a big plus to put even more money back into consumers' pockets however, to your point, with inflation being as high as it has been, and it varies in

different categories it's taking a lot of that discretionary opportunity to spend away i think that will be particularly true in 2023. christmas, hanukkah, the holiday season, thanksgiving, is an event-driven activity when consumers do all they can to come out and give, give that great gift to their friends and family that's behind us and so i do think you will see a bit of a slowdown, that shift i think will occur into more travel hopefully we'll be able to travel again more travel, more hospitality in the coming year. >> just not on southwest in the coming days. if you look at the retail stocks, it really -- there's quite a divergence, only a handful are higher for the year. there's a definite theme dollar general, tjx, dollar tree, ross stores are some of the best-performing retailers, besides utla beauty, which is in a league of its own.

stocks down like nike, vf corps down more than 60% this year what is the strategy in '23? clearly that speaks to the trade-down and the pressure on the low-income consumer which we saw this year. >> yes, both of those subjects, absolutely and i think the third piece, we talked about this before, sara many retailers got hurt by ordering too much inventory during the pandemic. when they panicked because last year, as you remember, they didn't have enough inventory and so as a result of that, they ended up ordering too much just at a time when demand was beginning to soften. and there were some very big numbers with more inventory than the prior year they were completely out of line with their own sales expectations going forward that hurt them because no matter what retailers say, and i know it was in this category for a long time -- if you're overloaded with inventory, you want to buy all

the hot sellers that you know you can sell through but your hands are tied. because you can't get rid of, fast enough that other inventory that you're trying to liquidate. so this has been their opportunity. we've had robust sales i believe a lot of that came as a result of the heavy promotion. we talked about this every holiday season, promotional christmas. it always is but this one was particularly, more so than i've seen in a long time and that's because of the high levels of inventory. question is, which retailers did their jobs and got rid of that inventory as of today? as of this week. which ones did not the winners are going to be the ones who have got clear, open to buy, open receipts going into 2023. >> sure. and then my follow-on has to do with margins what do you expect for retailers like macy's, a do you used to run, mar gins next year as we

could see continued promotions, right? we see apparel prices starting to come down. >> yeah, i think it would be a very mixed bag i think that the retailers that manage this subject i just discussed -- macy's was actually better than most in terms of inventory management as i think you all reported in the last quarter. so they should have less of an issue clearing that inventory. but i think the ones who were able to get through with it in a -- with a mild bump in inventory in the third quarter are going to be fine i think the ones who have huge lumps of inventory -- i don't remember exactly who those were but i remember some of those numbers were quite big 20%, 30% more inventory than the prior year i think those guys are going to have a very hard time getting rid of all of that inventory unless they took aggressive mark-downs to do so, which i think would be the right thing to do, by the way. just get off -- you know, take your lumps get over it. move on. prepare for the year going forward. frankly, the rate of sale, the rate of unit sales drops precip

doesly starting in two days, versus what it's been the last several months. >> target did that, took a couple of really big hits, negative surprises for investors on the profit side, instead of dealing with the demand shortfall and consumer discretionary spending has started to fall. >> i can't speak for target in particular they've been i think a well-run company, done great year work for a long time. perhaps back to my earlier point when you have too much inventory, which they did at the end of the third quarter wanting to fill the demand of those hot sellers, hot categories very difficult to do when you've got so much inventory in the wrong categories >> terry lundgren, thank you very much. always appreciate the perspective. >> thanks, sara. up next, the ceo of driven brands which owns meinecke and make coon whether americans are putting more money into maintaining and repairing their

vehicles because of record-high new car prices car prices hi

highs. the average new car price right now, $48,681 with the average

buyer paying over the sticker price every month since july 2021 with surging prices and rising interest rates, will consumers hang on to their cars instead of buying them new? driven brands is the company behind such automotive services like take 5 oil change, maako, meineke. jonathan, it's great to have you on the show. so new prices are way up used car prices are starting to fall how does it impact your business are people hanging on to them longer and maintaining them themselves >> yeah, thanks for having us. i appreciate it. yeah, to your question, what's interesting is the age of the vehicle has been increasing the last couple of decades we've breached 12 years of age as the average age of the vehicle on the road today. that trend continuing to increase and it's been a tailwind for the industry in the automotive aftermarket space, and we don't see change in the

next couple of years. >> what are you seeing particularly this holiday season there have been some analysts wondering if the weather, the brutally cold weather, is the catalyst for stocks like yours as people need to outfit their cars for cold weather. >> well, it's been a disaster for some folks, obviously, on the airline side you know, we feel for them but we see weather complexity and the age of vehicle as natural tailwinds which are going to continue to increase the demand for automotive aftermarket services i think that's, you know, a really good tailwind we've seen the last couple of years when we look at vehicle models traveled, which a key metric we look at in the industry, the number of miles driven annually, we'll see it overall increase in 2022 versus 2021 we expect that to continue into 2023 as people hold on to their vehicles longer, as people perhaps look at the cost of

travel and their car, versus other forms of transportation. so we do think vmt, vehicle miles traveled, will continue to increase as we head into 2023. >> even with oil prices higher than last year >> it's certainly moderated if you see where they were at the peak driven brands, our core customer owns a vehicle that's typically four years of age. they use their vehicle in their everyday lives so they've been driving for the last couple of years. and we see that to live your life, you need to maintain your car, your vehicle. so we saw very little moderation in terms of miles driven even with a sort of short-term spike in gas prices we saw late summer. >> one thing i wanted to ask you about, jonathan, what you make of what's happening in the world of used cars some of these stocks, carmax's earnings disaster as used car prices and sales fall, carvana now looking for financing and questions about its own solvency what do you think is happening

here >> look, i'm not going to comment on any of the public companies but i'll tell you from driven brands, automotive aftermarket, it's been a nice tailwind for us. what people forget about our industry is 80% of what we call fragmented in the hands of small chains or independents so driven has basically grown 10 times over the last 10 years that scale and sophistication has enabled us to continue to take market share, again in the auto services needs-based aftermarket. >> what is the most discretionary part of your business the car washes do you see any slowdown there? >> yeah, the car wash is a great business ev resiliency over the last few years, we've invest heavily in car wash and auto glass as two categories as we see ev neutral in decades to come specifically you could argue car wash is the most susceptible to discretionary income

that being said, we've got a lot of folks that live in inclement weather areas. we see car wash as sort of a preventive maintenance, almost, in maintaining their vehicle we also have great research that shows that people feel really good about themselves when they feel good about their cars so it is this affordable luxury category we also have about 50% of our revenue comes from monthly subscribers. so we've got a really nice business that has subscription revenue along with sort of the daily ala cart user. >> jonathan, good to check in with you, appreciate it. >> thank you, sara >> jonathan fitzpatrick, ceo of driven brands. take a look at where we stand in the market, accelerating the final area. dow up 90 points right now the s&p lower but again, it's improved over the final hour of trading. you've had some groups turn

positive in the last few moments. real estate, financials, materials joining energy, utility, staple, industrials materials very strong. anything tied to china has been a bright spot in today's session. technology under pressure. higher treasury yields. a top analyst discusses why biotech could be ready to bounce back, reveals his top pick for the new year. don't miss a cnbc special report with brian sullivan, "taking stock 2023," focusing on opportunities in the energy sector in the new year, 6:00 p.m. eastern on cnbc

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we are now in the "closing bell market zone." breaking down the crucial moments of the day plus christina joins us and jeffrey's michael ye on biotech picks. bob, we've seen a bit of improvement in the final hour but two narratives going on today. the china stocks, anything tied to china really working. win is one of the best-performing stocks in the s&p. and pick tech under pressure tesla down almost 11%. >> what stands out is china, obviously, lvs moving, metals moving also on that. the story is really tech i want to show you, we really have a problem because since the beginning -- since the middle of december, about december 14th or

15th, bond yields, which were trending down for several months, reversed, are now trending up. about a 10% move upside in 10-year bond yields. that's just killing tech stocks. i show you this chart. the middle of december now, as yields have moved up on the 10-greer yield, there's the 10-year moving to the upside, the other sections like arc innovation have movtd straight down bond yields up about 10% since the middle of december, arcs down about 10% same with semiconductor stocks, same with the s&p tech sector. since the middle of the month, inverse proportion bond yields have moved up, smh, semis have moved down as well. this is true of any kind of tech sector that you look at, including apple, as well as the individual stock at the same time, we're seeing today, the reason we're holding up so well in the dow is the value stocks are winning out

so merck said a new high united health is positive on the year chevron is the biggest winner on the dow. almost in the s&p 500 this year. procter & gamble is positive consumer staple stocks in general flat to slightly upside. it's the value stocks that are helping out as we close out the year. >> i feel like what the mark is telling you is the china reopening story is inflationary. commodities are all up today you're seeing a lot of pressure on bonds with higher yields that's weighing on tech. we'll continue to talk about it. you mentioned semiconductor stocks i want to zero in. they are underperforming the broad market a report that falling demand for consumer electronics is resulting in oversupply of chips. christina, we had a short supply now we have an oversupply. what do the data show? >> this is an ongoing problem weighing on the sector there's specific data coming from china that shows the domestic smartphone shipments fell 27% in october.

talking about the reopening but this is a bigger trend we're seeing that smartphone sales have not come up to par. that's weighing on the semis markets. as investors trying to figure out where is this bottom they're searching for this bottom nvidia, one of the worst performers today some of that has to do with the higher yields on the nasdaq 100, down over 7% chip equipment names, asml, kla, at least down 2% marvel off 60% after macron showed there is still excessive customer chip inventory, aka a chip glut in several markets. "the wall street journal" writing a report on that today that's an overhang on the market where we thought thinging were improving but mike crone is showing, no, that's not necessarily the case they expect demand to improve the second half of next year and plan to cut cap backs. less money for machines impacting equipment names like the asml i mentioned

taiwan semiconductor, that's faring a little better today still off about .5% right now. it's ready to start generation on the semiconductor wafers. 3 nanometer chips. some people's eyes glaze over but none know meters refers to the size of a transistor on a wafer. the smaller they are on the wafer, the more you can fit on a piece of silicone, that means more computing power offered >> smaller is better, in other words, thank you. >> in this case, yes >> in that case, yes christina, let's talk biotech socks selling off, on track for their worst year since 2016. but look at the ibb etf, showing in life in recent months, up more than 10%. leading the s&p. let's bring in biotech analyst mic michaelyee flipping your calls from this past year, i don't think of you

as a moderna bull. i'm going to have to change the idea, michael. it is one of your top picks for the year do you expect any catalyst when it comes to some of these studies, especially around the cancer vaccines? >> yeah, well, it's good to be here with you, sara. that is a big change moderna stock is one of our top ideas for 2023 you mentioned, obviously, the great data for personalized cancer vaccine i think that that story's going to continue to unfold this year. merck particularly as i've said before a big and important partner that is very bullish on this program and opening up a lot of studies, including lung cancer i think it's the first chapter, i think that's an important development. i would also mention that there's some phase 3 rsv vaccine data coming imminently as well i think that should be another near-term catalyst to talk about. >> you also like amgen and a few others

talk about some of the important clinical studies that are coming out that should be on our calendars and on our radar for these stocks. >> yeah, good. so in addition to moderna, we continue to like amgen and gilead for 2023. i think you have many comments about difficult environment. i would say that amgen and gilead and some of these more defensive-type, large biotech companies are quite attractive in this environment. and not only in the defensieive position, but an offensive position where we've been talking about a bit of a renaissance with a lot of these pipelines that have been going underappreciated amgen, obviously a new obesity drug, that sent the stock up 10% over the last month or go. amgen and lily playing in the obesity space, as well as milvo. amgen coming up with a potentially very competitive drug major obesity readout as well as gilead and cancer for 2023 >> which is the most

controversial pick, michael, of your top ones? which are you getting the most heat from clients? >> no doubt about it, i think every day i get emails and calls about moderna, both on the long side and the short side. obviously hugely controversial whether it's arguing about covid and where the numbers are going or whether there's any near-term catalysts, cancer vaccines, et cetera certainly the most controversial stock. i think you can understand that. biogen, one we didn't necessarily mention, but i think a controversial idea on alzheimer's and alzheimer's, that's a controversial place in 2023. >> we may have bad news, we covered bad news last week on report of another death in that trial. the alzheimer's drug it feels it's not definitive whether people will be using that or whether it will get approval, right? >> that's right. lily has a phase three readout as well as on alzheimer's. that should be positive and open up and continue to instill confidence with the drug

working, working, safe, getting approved i think over the next 12 months, obviously moving forward tworvetd approval, biogen, january 6th, an important date for approval lily data as well. we're in early chapters of this. i think a 12-month view, you're going to see these positive developments be positive for the biotech space in 2023. >> thank you very much for joining us, appreciate it. china stocks, look at the kraneshares are up more than 20% since the beginning of november thanks to easing china covid restrictions alibaba, others trending on the news many chinese internet names are making up ground from covid restrictions and beijing's regulatory crackdown has anything fundamentally changed in their outlook >> yes, if you have the appetite for chinese internet stocks, of course, they are not all the same we tend to look at the k web etf. if you dig down some names are actually outperforming

taking market share, becoming prof profitable names that aren't the usual alibabas pinduoduo, they've used the crackdown to their advantage in the recent quarter, pinduoduo up 65% that compares to baba's 3% tencent revenue declined in its latest quarter pinduoduo has outperformed by a large margin some of the other names. if you're betting on chinese tech as a group, most analysts recommend caution. the reopening isn't that straightforward. it's likely to be bumpy as i know your previous guest of the hour described it. >> hedge fund nwi saying they're short china against the mexican peso, they think it's going to be bumpy, not a straight shot. "into the close. the dow remains higher as mentioned some of the value stocks are working today we're talking about caterpillar

which is actually adding the most to the dow. chevron, png, salesforce the s&p, energy, utilities, materials all green. tech is getting hit. communication services and technology higher treasury yields the china reopening is adding bullishness, helping a lot of the china exposed names. also pressuring bonds. that's it for me on "closing bell." see you tomorrow, everyone all right, sarah, thank you very much. welcome to "overtime." i'm scott wapner we are just getting started at the new york stock exchange. coming up in just a bit, solus' dan greenhaus, do better days lie ahead in 2023? the crash of tesla shares, that stock suffers threat rough session, hitting another 52-week