you have the s&p 500 down about half a percent right now, 3800 level on the s&p morgan has actually acted as a bit of a gravitational pull in recent weeks >> just health care is the only sector in the s&p that is higher right now. that will do it for us here for "squawk on the street. we'll turn it over to tech check. happy wednesday morning, welcome to tech check. today the nasdaq is struggling to knock gains in a volatile last trading week of the year. is there opportunity in this down turn? one possibility may be apple hitting its lowest level since june of 2021, is it time to buy at a discount. plus how to play the china reopening, why one portfolio manager sees opportunity in alibaba, nvidia. but we start with the tech

turmoil. no santa claus rally in sight. nasdaq falling 1.4% yesterday and now down more than 30% on the year and that is on pace to break a three year winning streak with the index's worst performance since 2008 take a look at some of the valuation declines amazon and apple losing more than $800 billion in market cap. alphabet and michrosoft and tesa not far behind these six stocks on the screen plus nvidia, they have lost about 5 it would in combined value, and they are responsible for about half of the entire u.s. market losses which really tells you a lot about this year and the role that big tech has played >> yeah, just the fact that those seven companies all tech companies of course could be responsible for $5 trillion in combined valuation loss really tells the story of how much has changed this year. if you look back at january where we were in january, how things have changed dramatically since the war in ukraine

and then the total tech wreck, what happened with the cryptocurrency, bitcoin, ether, decline? cryptocurrency and of course the culmination of that in the implosion of ftx it really seems like more has changed this year than we've seen in transformation in any other recent years probably since 2000 2008/2009 >> and i was looking at the nasdaq, the nasdaq lost about almost 600 points in december. and when you look at the stocks leading those declines, it is apple, amazon, microsoft, almost counting for about 300 of those points and we're seeing what could be really that shift to value stock seeing the change of quote/unquote leadership especially in the nasdaq 100, stocks like exelon pushing the index higher and other names that you might not correlate with the nasdaq 100. so the question is, is there going to be a shift back to the growth stocks. i guess met take is not tech lay

growth stock, but especially in q1 >> and some may start to be considering meta as a growth stock. but today nasdaq couldn't hold on to fgains. so what does that say about next year >> and it was really just a bounce back after such meaningful losses the past several sessions such a dramatic transformation of the tech sector over the past year and we're seeing the declines tesla now down about half a percent. and as china starts to ease its tech crackdown, our next guest thinks it is time to hop back into tech names such as alibaba and tencent. joining us now is our tech investor give us big picture, why are you so bullish and how much has to do with the reopening of china

>> it has to do less with reopening of china and more to do with the underlying business trend and valuations that we're getting from these companies today. short version is these are excellent businesses very few companies that you can count on fingers of your two hands that generate $15 billion, $20 billion in free cash flow every year alibaba and ten cencent are two those names. but their business is going through a bit of a change, but the risks are so heavily overpriced in the valuations that you are getting a couple of their underlying businesses for free and with softening of the regulation clamp down and with the chinese reopening which is going to hopefully boost consumer activity for companies like al bi-babb about a and tencent, there are a few

catalysts, this being one of them, that will slowly pay up. this is why we're bullish. >> you say they are not for everyone walk us through the caveats. >> first thing has to do with investing in china so if you cannot hold your breath for something like three or five years, you should into the touch these names because anything can happen over a six month period you saw that play out in gory detail with a lot of drama over the last 12, 18 months some of that is not going away the government crackdown is a real but that being said, these companies have really come off the best businesses in terms of profitability and growth targets

and management ability across anyone else in the world and in getting them as less than liquidation value in many of the cases. so you have to sit there and hold your stomach and believe that the underlying business will have headlines over the period of several months or a couple years if you can do that, then you can buy. otherwise you should stay away it is not a trading stock. >> so a lot of breath and stomach holding. your position on covid, sounds like a lot of your thesis relies on china reopen ppg we're seeing reports of people going from mainland china to macao and hong kong to get mrna vaccine so how much is your thesis based on those vaccines and second, u.s. chip restrictions, will that impact these stocks in a meaningful way >> the covid mrna vaccination

question, it is a catalyst, but overall is the general reopening and normalization of physical restrictions and business travel restrictions that have heavily, heavily clamped down on business activity and you can see that in say the earnings report of many of the chinese companies like alibaba for example. which had the first down year i think since the ipo. so it is not exactly the mrna vaccine but the overaw aall softening of the covid restrictions that i think will be a catalyst. but that is not a reason to buy the stock. that is one of the factors the second thing you pointed out was about chip restrictions. it has affected companies like

alibaba. and they recently could not get their hands on some chips. and now alibaba is probably the third biggest cloud company in the world or fourth biggest depending on how you count and they have a client base of approximately two-thirds of the companies in china and so it is the aws of china if you like and that market is supposed to triple >> so let me make sure i understand are you making the case that chinese tech stocks should not be traded but rather held? is that what you're saying >> i'm a long term investor. and if you can take a three or five year view, then i think that this is compelling. >> feels like that goes against everything that we've seen over the last few years and the un p un un unpre-difficult ability of xi jinping. if you hold for three to five years and you see that xi jinping is putting a greater focus on ideology oerpver

economics, it seems incredibly risky. >> two years ago the valuations at the time versus the effect the issues that you pointed out has led to a dramatic drawdown in these stock prices. >> but that is a thing, right? we don't know where they bottom out. they could be excellent businesses but we don't know what beijing is going to do. whatever they want to call a regulatory crackdown, even the w though companies that look good, will they trade on fundamentals? >> i'll give you one example you know, one of china's priorities is to be self-sufficient in i.t and everything to do with high tech if they want to make big strides in things like ai and machine learning, then they are not going to get there by killing a

company like alibaba which is probably the only company and probably alongside a couple others that even have the ability to compete at some point at a global level. now, in some ways, the crackdown has in my opinion overpriced in all the risk factors that you can see. so, yeah, i am not arguing that that is going to be blue skies going forward. but what i am arguing is despite the unknowns out there, the underlying quality of the business, the economics that we can see, weighed against the valu valuations, probabilities are on the investor side that we'll

make excellent returns if we were to be patient enough for a period of three, four, five years. >> and looking at all these chinese tech stocks selling off today. and thank you so much for talking to us this morning >> you're welcome. happy holidays and we mentioned speaking of china, tiktok under pressure from u.s. lawmakers now banned on all devices issued by the u.s. house of representatives with a provision pending in the new spending bill to remove it from all government devices. earlier this month marco rubio proposed legislation to remove the app entirely from the united states julia, is this some good news for meta >> yeah, i think that we cannot underestimate the impact that tiktok has had not just on meta but also on alphabet's youtube as well as on snap tiktok has been a game changer we've seen all three of those companies really try to

replicate some of the most popular tools and i think any crackdown on tiktok could be beneficial for meta in particular but this is really interesting looking at all of the different incremental points of criticism of tiktok and the question of what they will do but tiktok saying we're into the doing any wrong so don't be threaten but it is a fascinating bipartisan critique.the doing wn so don't be threaten but it is a fascinating bipartisan critique. >> they are giving lawmakers good reason to continue the push they said employees had inappropriately obtained information of journalists but i guess what happens this 2023 is a year that we'll see tiktok banned, could it lead to other chinese companies. i lived in china when all the google and a number of others were banned in that country. but users there were still able to access them through vpns. everyone had a vpn

will splintering be a big name >> i think a full ban is unlikely because only they would be so unpopular with younger consumers, younger voters in particular i think perhaps some sort of sale or some sort of shifting of those assets here in the u.s. would be more likely just because can you imagine if people could get out to vote to hold on to tiktok? i mean young people really love their tiktok >> one pushback though reels is pretty comparable to tiktok i'm not saying people don't love their tiktok, but if you can get similar function from reels sl along with the instagram, would the shift be that big? >> i think even all the rival services, people are tied into tiktok and many will say that the algorithm seems to be better so we'll see how it plays out. i would suspect that all these

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let's get a gut check on apple, hitting its lowest level since june of 2021 thanks to concerns over iphone supply. so what should investors expect for the stock in the year ahead? steve kovach is joining us with more take it any direction you want here there is a lot to look to. >> a lot to unpack so look, apple shares are coming off the fresh 52 week lows and wrapping up what will likely be its worst year since '08 production problems from the covid lockdowns and protests in china weighing on the stock this year, but still some potential growth catalysts coming in '23 and services, this is the important segment to watch, fintech will be a big one. apple expected to launch its buy now pay later service called apple pay later and they will

also offer a high yield savings account for apple card customers, a new product announced this year and expected to launch in early '23 meanwhile advertising is another area we're expecting more from apple. this year we had the new app store ads that launched and they are the little likely to look at other services like apple tv plus to grow that business some of that growth could come at the expense of companies like google and meta. on the hardware side big question, if iphone demand holds on into next quarter after missing shipments this month but we'll have to wait a few more months to find out if apple can pick up the slack. and we're expecting the augmented reality headset, the first major new product since the apple watch in 2015 and it puts apple in more direct competition with meta, though tim cook and company will have to make a compelling case for the device that meta has failed

to do so far and the dollar is expected to remain strong, at least for the first half of the year, and that hurts apple's services business. and app store spending has been falling which apple blames on a drop in gaming sales >> and the big china question too. we'll get to all of that for more on what to expect from apple, let's bring in chris sankar, a price target of 2$200 is all of the risk priced into the stock now? with covid zero you had to worry about the factors but now that beijing is potentially coming out of it, you have to worry about rising cases and there is very little transparency >> thanks for having me. fair point i would say a lot of the choina covid issues are priced in even our own iphone numbers, we

started in the high 80 million for december and now we're at about 74 million i'd say investors are on the low 70 million range for the december quarter because combination of slowdown in china, covid-related shutdown issues, all of that blended this is what drove the iphone unit assumption because similar quarters from the high 80s to the low 70s in the last couple of months. >> and frank holland here. how much of your outperform rating is based on the demand for the new iphone and some of the other services that apple provides and also are you factoring in the money it is spending on apple tv some estimates say as much as $6 billion a year apple has its own issue with a lot of spending. of course they have a lot more money 24than pretty much anybod but are you concerned about that in the streaming space and also their core business of iphones >> yeah, hey, frank, we actually

do have iphone revenue declining. they have flat units but we have revenue coming down and so services growing a bit. a combination of that kind of rating along with our valuation. the risks obviously is i don't worry too much about the apple tv plus spending apple a year and a half ago was doing almost $18 billion in buybacks so $6 billionage sl annually isa big number for apple and i would say services is part of the pieces. and that is one of theh what he iphone numbers and could service actually decelerate. >> so part of your thesis is services growth, but we also see it in appstore gaming. is there another catalyst in the

terms of hardware? i've been reading about a new ipad mini, but that doesn't seem like it will be meaningful in terms of that kind of revenue. and then also if you look at this new headset, there is a question of how much adoption we'll actually see of the headset if it does in fact hit the market in the next couple quarters >> i would say end of the day, yes, there could be a headset coming out next year have to figure out the forecasts early on when it comes to hardware, iphone is really what moves the needle ipad is maybe at the margin a little more, but it is all about iphone and that means to grow or hold on pretty well versus massively decline. on the services side, it is interesting because it is hard to pinpoint like on the hardware side i can comfortably say iphone drives the needle there are multiple sectors on the services side.

you have apple store, apple music, apple pay, apple care so if one is up, one is down, it doesn't really have a negative impact so i think multiple drivers unlike the hardware side >> thanks for your insights. happy holidays to you. >> thank you looking for more tech coverage respect don't miss tonight's special taking stock 2023, talking all things tech from the twitter saga to the bank trade, that is 6:00 p.m. eastern. (swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.

welcome back to tech check here is your cnbc news update. pending home sales sinking

another 4% last month far more than expected with mortgage rates higher and affordability lower. pending sales have plummeted 38% over the last year and pace of sales is now the lowest since april of 2020. southwest stock is down another 2% today as the carrier once again operates only about 40% of its scheduled flights other major airlines including delta, american and united say they are trying to help stranded flyers by capping fares in the cities affected. and entertainment ceo adam aron is asking for his pay to be frozen next year because of the drop in stock price. he had earned nearly $19 million last year and asking other amc executives to also forego pay hikes. but with shares down about 76% this year, aron could face pressure to not only freeze his pay but sharply cut it as well frank, back to you >> seema mody, thank you very much and it is the last trading week of the year and nasdaq is

just trying to bring in gains as we head into 2023. here is a look at what is moving on the tech heavy index. ev makers are leading it >> but still failing right now, roughly 2% away from the 52 week low. eight months of decline and tracking for its first year since 2008 but both the nasdaq and ten year treasury have moved in opposite directions quite seamlessly. nasdaq stocks are more likely to have debt and therefore be negatively impacted when yields rise and you can see the three day chart shows that nicely. biggest movers, you have illumina and then lucid and tesla. and this after tesla made yet another 52 week low yesterday, some buy the dip action today, so test that up over 1%, lucid up almost 2% and you have some chinese tech

names that are the biggest h laggards despite the approval of foreign video games. maybe a possible sign that china might be losing its tough stance on big tech over there i want to point out enphase energy is also down over 3% as oil prices pull back and we're getting a bit of a rebound from nvidia. semis are on watch as investors focus on the oversupply of chips. talk about how far we have come. keep in mind that light trading volume because of holiday vacations can lead to outsized moves in particular names. >> we found a few bright spots, so not entirely a debbie downer. and it is a rough year for gig economy stocks doordash and lyft both losing about 70% this year, and airbnb and uber down about 50% and 40%

respectively these are very tough comps for still private gig companies like instacart. the information reporting that the grocery delivery startup had its valuation for the fourth time this year down to just $10 billion. and its peak valuation was $39 billion, that was in march of 2021. and instacart of course a private company that investors continue to look to for tea leaves about the ipo market and potential public debuts. it did file confidentially earlier this year only to scrap it but the question is how are other startups thinking about valuations and marking their port portfolios let's bring in bob pisani for some context these valuation cuts not necessarily good news for the employees or vcs, but the retail investor, could they finally see, you know, a deal or at least some better price action on ipos next year if in fact the ipo market opens

>> yes, short answer is yes. and it is about time this is -- 2023 will be the year of the haircut the unicorns are not in demand, unicorns being usually tech valuations over $1 billion and you saw that today with what was going on with instacart. so what you are going to see is all of these companies are going to be under pressure to cut their price. and we actually have a little bit of a playbook here with a recent ipo remember what happened with mobile eye, mobile eye was a device company -- renaissance capital by the way lowest level since the pandemic so these are companies that have gone public mostly in the last two years and you can see what the valuations are but i want to put up mobile eye for a minute, they went public in october the price was 21 and they had a huge valuation haircut. look at this, it is 33 now

so there was pressure to cut the prices they went 30 billion and finally end up with $17 billion valuation. and look at this, the stock is up this year is this a template for what is going to happen in 2023. cut the valuation like mobileye and maybe you go public and maybe retail investors will benefit. >> i'm curious about this and maybe you go public thing because one thing that i've been hearing a lot about from startups that might have planned to go public the sex half of this year or maybe first half of next year, are they going to wait if they can will they hold off until the markets really stabilize or rebound. so i'm curious what you are hearingand thinking about when that ipo market opens. and instacart is not just a gig economy stock, it was really a pandemic play. everyone was staying home and getting everything delivered don't you think it had a double downgrade obecause of that?

>> yes, but the short answer, it depends on your pain threshold remember these companies have been private for a long time they were under a lot of pressure go public because their employees wanted to exit, these who had private venture want an exit ramp. these companies are not set up to be private for 10, 15 years their models are usually for five years most of these companies are way past that. so what is the pain threshold. look at mobileye, $50 billion and they ended up at 17. instacart, 39 and they end up at 10 can all these companies handle that kind of down scale valuation. some can, some can't so that will be the big question, what is the pain thre threshold. i think individual companies will have individual answers >> we talk a lot about down rounds, but there actually are a good number of companies and big ones that are raising money at higher valuations. i was looking at sheehan, the

chinese fast retailer, $100 billion valuation just raised in october of this year so there are some out there. i guess where do you see the value, where do retail investors want to get in >> one question for you i know you cover instacart, it was a pandemic play, but also just inflation. we're talking about retail investors, but what about the prices people are paying eggs going up 39%, other foods going up double digits doesn't that just cut into the amount of money that people have to spend on groceries in general but also on the additional fees and delivery fees that instacart also charges >> that is a great point i think the company would argue that at least you can see different grossecers to see whe the best prices are. and you have doordash coming into the space too so are these habits really going to be sticking if inflation continues to stay high it is a good question. >> so if you want a couple companies that are real watchdogs here in the unicorn

space, watch arm, the big semiconductor company, that is still floating out there that is a big unicorn. but there are other spinoffs mobileye was a spinoff there is a vietnamese electric vehicle company that is floating out there. they are huge. that is a spinoff from a huge vietnamese company f fogel hospitality, the big steakhouse, they are likely to go public at the first opening of the ipo window. kinder care, a big child care company, that is huge and that is floating out there. so these are not necessarily tech companies the one that i would warmtch is arm, that is a big one floating out there. >> certainly something to watch, bob. two things i've learned, you should pick out your own avocados and don't give anybody a pound on live tv

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we spoke about how apple has rocked ad markets. and a 2.5% drop in market share is projected -- total ad u.s. market share -- excuse me,

digital ad market share. this is a big deal because it marks the first time since 2014 since those two companies won't hold a majority and it is actually the fifth consecutive annual share decline of that google/meta duopoly. our next guest sees this decline as an opportunity to scoop up some smaller online ad names and as well as ecommerce stocks. joining us now is internet equity research director sorry for my misspeaking there it is such a big deal to see meta and google lose that more than 50% dominance that they have had of the digital ad market share and of total ad market share and so i'm curious what it means for you in terms of the names that you think have a huge opportunity right now. >> sure, so thanks for having me you're right, it is a big deal we shouldn't expect the major

players, and we really have to include apple in there now, will lose their dominant position anytime soon but what we've seen is a big shift in digital advertising since apple limited its privacy initi initiatives, really lost a lot of power for social media advertising and how well those platforms can target so what we're seeing is maybe a second wave of what we call the oer open we are net versus the walled gardens where context all oig advertising is more important. we've seen big drivers still in the early days and so social will continue to remain important, search obviously will continue to remain important there are all these other pockets that might see the strongest growth this coming years and that is what we're talking about here >> and frank holland here.

looking at the list of your picks. i have a few questions for you we look at the trade desk could be a beneficiary of the increased ads on streaming platforms. jeff green is very bullish on that wix's president say people opening up businesses and offering services is a tail wind for their business but wayfair, isn't that tied to the housing trade and people buying new houses during the pandemic >> yeah, so great that you are bringing that up it is the one call that we got the first pushback from investors. so certainly understandable sentiment there is still a challenge. you're right on the top line, there is a lot that is tied into what was kind of a pull forward of growth and people investing in their homes while they were stuck at home during covid, now you've got macro issues and inflation and challenges there so the top line is what will

drive better sentiment improvement in wayfair what wayfair is doing, they are at the very early stages of being focused on cutting costs even if macro conditions don't improve. so they will be cutting $500 million of costs and they will be heading more to that and that path of profitability should be something that we think will start to change sentiment. >> and i have to ask you about a headline out from the information this morning saying that amazon is planning a standalone sports app as andy jassy doubles down on prime video. is t this is so interesting because the sports rights are so valuable and we've seen san continue to make investments there. but that is one reason that google and meta have lost their

total dominance of the ad space there. where do you see amazon and the digital video and potential sports app playing into the potential landscape? >> my colleague covers amazon and so i'd have to defer to him on amazon specifically but broadly speaking, sports rights have been one of the last kind of bastions that linear television has been hanging on to and i think as that moves more and more digital and we're starting to see that happen, we saw google just bid for the sunday package, so that is really important i think that that will be a core strategy across the board for digital players in bringing sports rights on and that can accelerate the shift away from cable -- linear television viewer ship, cutting the cord, to digital streamers >> certainly seeing a shift in ad dollars from traditional

linear tv to streaming the targeted video ads as well thank you so much for joining us today. and as we head to break, take a look at shares of tesla jumping datoday. on pace for its worst month, quarter and year ever. up right now almost a percent though

welcome back to tech check

time for our exclusive cfo survey and we begin with this data point, more than a third of these corporate decision makers say inflation is the biggest risk to their business, 36%. that is an increase from q3 even as we've seen some better than expected inflation reports but we still remain a long way from the fed's target of 2% and almost two-thirds of cfos say in-flas flation has peaked d more than half say that the fed has done an a. good to excellenb of controlling inflation this survey was taken between november 30th and december 20th and during that time we saw china covid cases spike, november cpi better than expected and fed hike rates by 50 basis points bringing them to their highest level in 15 years. it was in this environment with those headlines that more than 85% of cfos forecasted a recession in 2023. here is how it broke down.

43% of them saying recession in the first half of 2023, 43% of them saying recession in the second half. and look over here, 9% forecasting a so-called soft landing. that is inflation under control and no recession still more than half of our cfos say forecasting the dow is going to be difficult but more than 9% -- many of them say they will see a 9% fall below 30,000 in the near future before any move to the up side, below 30,000 level. we have not seen in the blue chip index since its close october 14th >> great information there one more reminder, don't miss tonight's special taking stock 2023, looking ahead to new tech opportunities in the new year. that is tonight.

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ep. all right, welcome back to tech check i spoke to the ceo of forward air, a stock up more than 50% "this is us" this quarter outperforming about the excess inventory. >> when you had in the past heavy treadmills there may not be seven treadmills in a shipment, now it's three because the other four are already here sitting in a warehouse

>> as for 2023 our next guest says don't expect any recovery in the year ahead. great to have you on, happy holidays the next big event in the u.s. supply chain, how do you see that impact especially in logistic stocks q1 >> u.s. stocks have gotten much, much healthier over the past year we have a pretty representative view of the supply chain and there's two major trends the delay to the ramp up of the holiday cycle.

businesses are not as concerned about run out of stock because the supply chain is actually more slack -- we've seen a decline in total fright volume to warehouses. that affects consumer demand but also more confidence from businesses that get the goods they need without having to order in excess and early. >> it's interesting talking about the demand piece of the supply chain and how if we are going into recession next year, more of an economic downturn, that could play into the supply chain conversation as well talk to us a little bit about your outlook going through the rest of next year. i'd say the outlook is actually strong

a lot more capacity has come online both in ocean fright but also importantly in over the road freight and that has declined in the cost of moving goods and the cost of over the road spot freight has reduced by 30% over the last 12 months, and that means that businesses will incur lower costs in fulfilling goods, and that does get passed on by consumers. so there should be a deflationary effect from supply chain inputs into the broader economy. >> earlier in the show we were talking about startups and private valuations you guys were able to actually have a up round this year according to pitch book. how are you looking at hiring a at this moment and how are you looking at the ipo market?

>> we're able to consistently drive increase in valuation and enterprise value for the business for the past two years years and really i think it's a reflection of the strength and health of our customers. they're essential to our economy, and they continue to invest in technology to drive operating leverage and drive up prubtativity so we've seen continued growth in our install base and in the tech that our customers are deploying, buying more and more of our solutions and they continue to invest. we continue to invest in pilding out capacity in our team, growing our rnd capacity, going to market capacity and making sure we can serve customers

really in any economic environment. >> we appreciate your time thanks interest being here >> thank you >> and did you miss part of the show don't forget to subscribe std follow our podcast lien anytime anywhere you download podcasts. tech check is back in a moment miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation.

one more thing even the booking ceo cannot avoid the holiday travel troubles he say supposed to be on this morning but guess what his flight was canceled. tune in tomorrow, though, he'll be on squawk on the street my own brother didn't even make it for christmas because of his flight problems. >> i'm so grateful i got through my holiday travel without any major hiccups, but i actually say we actually switched one of our flights earlier so in case it was it laid or canceled we would be able to make it what i'm wonder ahead of this will people feel so burned they would be reluctant to make it out to spring break. >> i'm certainly not taking a bus like a lot of people have.

will this be a catalyst for vouchers for food and hotels going forward, and of course what does it do the stocks if they have to pay out hotels for you if you're stuck somewhere four hours, six hours whatever the case may be. >> the nasdaq down another 1% today. let's get to walker and the half all right, thanks very much. welcome everybody to the half time report. i'm scott wapner, front and center this hour $10 trillion. it's a staggering amount of money lost in u.s. stocks this year, the worst for your money since 2008 it's been a top-heavy takedown, too. apple, microsoft many other megacaps accounting for the biggest share of that suffering. will there be a reversal in 23 we'll debate that today with the investment