start of the pandemic. another report from redbin shows shares of luxury homes were 38% lower for the three months ending november 30th compared with the same period last year that's the biggest decline since they started tracking a decade ago. so lower prices are not helping much another read this week from s&p kay schiller showed prices nationally in october fell for the fourth straight month. they were still just over 9% higher than october of last year, but that annual gain has been shrinking quickly and is now half of what it was in june. where does that leave us in january? kind of in a weird spot. there's very little demand from buyers but also very little supply to entice them back to a slightly less expensive market >> diana, thank you very much. diana olick. that does it for "the santelli exchange" -- "the exchange." "power lunch" begins right now >> welcome to "power lunch," everybody. i am brian in for tyler once again. here's ahead for the 2:00 p.m.

eastern hour with just two days trading left in the year, strategists are filling up their stockings with 2023 predictions this year, the only thing that's clear is uncertainty plus, peacock, disney plus, hbo max, netflix, paramount plus and more, oh, my, a reckoning ahead for streamers. if so, who will come out on top? we'll have that and much more ahead on "power lunch. kelly? >> thank you, brian. hi, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. i'm kelly evans. stocks are attempting to make a comeback with two trading -- days left from 2022. the nasdaq up 2.75% today. tesla shares leading the s&p, a big countertrend feel there today, for the second straight day, adding 6% today but still on pace to close down the year 65%. a pretty good day for the financials affirm is up 7%, and we have to get a check on the airlines as

southwest has canceled more flights overnight but say they plan to return to normal operations with minimal disruptions tomorrow ahead of the new year smaller gains for the rest of the space. speaking of the new year, with two trading days left, strategists are filling up inboxes with their predictions for 2023, and the only thing they seem to agree on is that no one has any idea the crystal ball is getting harder to read bob pisani joins us with more. >> it's that time of year. everyone is making predictions about how everything's going to look one year from now the problem is there's a lot of disagreement about what that's going to look like let me show you. strategists, like analysts, tend to be a somewhat optimistic lot. the average 22 strategists surveyed expect earnings at the s&p at 4,078 at this time next year, up about 7% from where we are now. but dispersion is very high. the high is 4,750. the low is 3,400

that would be down 10% it's unusual to have that wide of dispersion, and it indicates how difficult it is to figure things out in the next year. we have an unusual series of problems to deal with. obviously, we had the continuing effects of covid, particularly in china we've got the russia invasion of ukraine. and most importantly, the fed higher for longer. nobody can agree on what kind of recession, if any, we'll have. any one of thesealone would create a big range of economic outcomes put all three together, it's little wonder strategists have a wide range of opinions finally, folks, it's important to point out these estimates are nothing but guesses. they have very poor track records. analysts, economists, tooechb federal reserve has a poor track record of predicting the economy a year out very little predictive value the reason, of course, guys, is number one, people have many biases that affect their ability to make accurate forecasts and second, there are so many variables that figuring out where things are a year from now is really hard we create these stories. that's why we make these projectionings because it gives

us some feeling we have control over the future. we might have a lot of control over our personal futures but not so much over predicting stock prices one year from now guys, back to you. >> i would second that, bob, and i would say that the federal reserve, based on where they were last year with their predictions for rates, was i would say the wrongest prediction i've seen in 20 years. that aside, it is kind of amazing how all the strategists, i think the low number on the s&p was 4,300 or 4,400, somewhere above 5,000, for this year, wildly wrong now they seem like they're kind of tripping over themselves to almost be the lowest or the most bearish. what a flip. >> right so to if you work under this contrarian indicator, then you want to definitely go long the average strategist actually predicts earnings are going to be down 5% to 10% next year. and yet they anticipate the average -- the average strategist anticipates prices will be up slightly.

it's a hard situation to figure out. i'll tell you, brian, even without the difficult situation with covid and what's going on with the fed, strategists and analysts are wrong even in flat year where is nothing is going on and this makes you a lot more humble when you look at these numbers long term. i have gotten a lot more humble about making long-term predictions. it's just really difficult because the variables are so great that it makes forecasting particularly difficult >> certainly said and very, very well said. bob, thank you so if strategists cannot come to any consensus on the direction of the macro market, the economy, earnings, how are you supposed to invest is joining us now is keith fitzgerald, principal at the fitzgerald group welcome back >> thank you >> what say you? are you making some bold predictions for next year? >> well, of course we are, but there's a big caveat opinions are like belly buttons -- everybody has one i think the thing that investors need to concentrate on now are they playing for the short term

or the long term if you're playing for tomorrow, a week out, 12 months out, you have a50/50 ability to forecast if you're looking out longer, 70%, 08% probability the market closes higher. you want to go with that that's where we're concentrating. >> okay. so where is that >> well, for example, right now you're seeing tech is being priced like it's going out of business two companies in particular, amd and intel, are being priced like they're going to be banished from the face of the earth yet at the same time, very coincidentally we live in a time where most of the data we've created in the history of humanity needs chips to run. i would submit those companies are great opportunities, perhaps entries likewe haven't seen in a decade or more but you have to be patient and understand the volatility. >> why are you so convinced that the worst may be over for those semiconductor and chipmakers

>> well, i'm not convinced the worst is over. you know, selling is absolutely possible holiday weeks in particular, we got a glimpse of that yesterday. i personally happen to think we'll see a weaker market generally speaking into the first half of next year at which point the fed is going to have to acknowledge the inevitable, it's been as wrong as the day's been long about transitory, labor, and rates, and ultimately pivot or tap on the brakes i want to get ahead of that because historically speaking prices tend to stabilize two to three-quarters before the economic data does >> i feel like the fed, and forgive me for this metaphor or analogy, i can never figure it out, a cheating ref can alter the outcome of the game. the federal reserve can make its terrible predictions last year they didn't even see interest rates now at more than 1% that was a year ago. they were below 1% we're now at 5%. but here's the thing the federal reserve is the ref they make the rules. they can change the outcome

regardless of what their prediction is. >> absolutely valid and super intelligent point, to which i would push back respectfully that if you to dent like the game, change the game. pick the battles that wall street has no interest in fighting when in doubt, zoom out. look for the ceos and companies that are still putting numbers up because of longer-term structural changes impacting the world that we live in. whether the fed acts today or tomorrow is almost moot if you start looking at the history of how markets work there are buyers and sellers capital wants to grow. as long as that argument is true, growth will slow but it will never in the history of the world stop. >> finally, keith, like we said, joking about fed filings that could happen this year, what do you have to say about where we could be headed? >> well, again, you know, i'm an optimist i'm going to bet because the sun is coming up tomorrow not because i think the sunset will be permanent -- >> let's hope. >> -- so i'm going to look at

the fed, however jaundiced their opinions rr models are, they're not stupid they're trying to do the best they can under extremely difficult circumstances. i'm going to bet and hope they succeed. i may not like it, i may not be comfortable with it, it might be scary, but that's the way i'm playing the game >> you have to know which way the ref is going and i guess bet accordingly. keith fitz-gerald, have a happy new year appreciate you joining us. >> you too thank you. coming up, savings rates are falling, credit balances rising, and sales of big-ticket items are down could it mean the consumer is tapped out and from zero to hero, one top strategist says some of this year's biggest lag arlds are set to pop including one heavyweight that's fallen hard from its power run. if you were a global energy company? with operations in scotland, technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely.

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heading into the holiday season, overstock had investor worried about the retail space, but things seem to have turned out for now. the fears are now whether or not the consumer is finally tapped out. melissa joins us with details on this >> we're seeing polls with numbers saying that spending during the holidays was up 7.6%, which was pretty decent. the question is how are consumers paying for their purchases, and are they going to run out of gas as the credit card bill comes due, as they see that credit card, you know -- as they spend more and the checking

account goes down. so that's really the factor to watch, and there are some concerning signs one is that people are putting less money away as they're spending more, so the personal savings rate has gone down significantly, especially compared to prepandemic averages so it used to be 6.3%. now it's down to 2.4% as of november that's one of the indicators that potentially people are not feeling comfortable putting money away because they're spending instead >> credit card debt overall is up 20% coming into the holidays. you wonder if there's some point at which the consumer is literally -- we all kind of went nuts when the pandemic -- we reopened, i hate that term, everybody's we goring to to vegas, i don't care. i wonder when the consumers will get tapped out credit-wise >> inflation too i'm curious what is causing the run-up you're stalking about >> everything is stupid

expensive. >> we talked about it earlier on the air, eggs are expensive, the basics that people don't want to spend more on, they're spending more on and they're not willing to sacrifice almost a yolo feeling in the economy. people have been booking a vacation and getting new clothing but people are looking at their budgets. >> i'm going to make my omelet tomorrow morning when my wife says how did you afford those eggs? i'm going to seau low. we have a chicken segment coming up later in the show don't ruin it. talk about commuting >> yeah. >> now, we're in new jersey, so we have this turnpike and parkway thing you have to pay to drive on, the lincoln tunnel we're a little weird i get that >> it's expensive. >> $60 a day i spend on commuting. a lot of people are spending that much taking the train to manhattan. that's got to be eating in to discretionary income >> it definitely is. one of the take-aways from the

mastercard poll, even though spending overall looked decent, jewelry and electronics were weaker these are big-ticket items and people cut them out when they feel constrained i'm not going to get my spouse a diamond bracelet or i'm not going to get a brand-new tv. i can put that off because perhaps they're spending more on commuting again. >> look at the return to work coinciding with the spike in gasoline prices. melissa has a good stake on instacart, not on miracle whip or any items -- >> debate on the twitter >> still hearing about it, but delivery services. what do we see there in terms of the consumer >> instacart took down their valuation and the factor here is that, you know, people are against scrutinizing a budget so they may not want to pay that delivery fee anymore we're seeing prepandemic trends including shopping for groceries yourself walmart is offering the curb-side pickup service for groceries instead of getting instacart, which is charging more

plus, you have to tip the person there's more competition for people's wallets, and the heyday of free spending may be ending as we enter the first quarter. that's when reality may bite for consumers and their budgets. >> i think it was august 2nd i made an instacart basket in this area at a shoprite of five items. i screen shot it. >> that was your first mistake, an instacart basket of five items. >> eggs, milk, bread, the basics i want to see if any of those prices have changed. if they've changed they've probably gone up no >> chicken price have come down. some of those -- maybe eggs are still one of the -- >> why is the chicken price down but the egg price up something's wrong there. which came first how can one be down and one be up it's the same thing! it's just an earlier version of the chicken! >> i can tell you for a fact the chicken breast prices are down >> they are down we have heard that from walmart, that the chicken is down

there are silver linings for groceries. but if you're paying more for groceries, even if items are coming down you may say i don't want to have instacart deliver because i don't want to pay the fee or the tip we're seeing this dynamic with take-outs. people are picking up their tak takeout. i do it in new york city sometimes. if you get a bureau delivered, it's pretty much double the price for a burrito. >> what's happening to you sat in your penthouse apartment and ordered -- >> chipotle. >> doubles, you work you have with a the burrito before you eat it >> 40 blocks away. pick it up on 11th street. i live ont 8th >> sometimes the best mexican is further. >> thank you >> we'll get to the chicken and egg argument have you been to the supermarket lately you know, yes, egg prices continue to spike. it's bad news for you huh v but

also for america's largest egg producer we're not talking about one giants chicken the company. plus, golden state worries, san francisco's downtown a nearly empty waste land, empty buildings everywhere will tech come to the rescue by coming back to the office?

welcome back to "power lunch. hope you're having a great thursday the markets are having a pretty good thursday. we are higher across the board the nasdaq is leading the gains. nasdaq is up 2.5%. names like netflix are rallying. the names that have been the worst lately are the best today. equities being helped by lower yield. the 10-year yield back below 4%. remember, we began the year, though, 1.66%, and overall the bond market on a price basis is now on pace for the worst year ever the energy complex moving a little lower nat gas the worst performer, oil back below $80 the softer dollar offsetting concerns about china demand, and one of the reasons, kelly, natural gas has been down is not just the wths's been -- aside from the terrible storm which thank god is over but with

freeport lng still offline, they were exporting a lot of gas. they were a huge buyer of gas. they're still offline so a lot of gas is building up. when they reopen, we'll probably see prices go back >> frank holland has the cnbc news update. democrat chris mays will be arizona's next attorney general. his margin of victory narrowed to just 280 votes out of roughly 2.5 million ballots cast in jackson, mississippi, residents are still suffering from another water crisis. people are waiting on long lines for bottled water. this is after a huge winter storm burst dozens of water pipes. a city-wide boil water notice remains in effect, and a number of city ace cross the south are facing water issues including atlanta and selma, alabama and brazilian soccer legend pele has died. he'd been hospitalized the last month with multiple ailments including colon cancer he led brazil to three

chipotles. his effortless play and charisma made him one of the most known athlete athletes of the 20th century. he passes at the age of 82 still ahead on "power lunch," a special tech-themed power runout first metaverse hype to burning out. after years of buildup, are fans of the virtual world snap back to reality and media giants betting bigger on cheaper ad-supported options.

welcome back to "power lunch. as we look ahead to a new year for tech, it's important to look back on what worked and what didn't 2022 showed us sometimes the hype is never enough the metaverse bubble seemingly bursting after years of buildup. streaming struggling to hold on to users amidst competition, forcing switches to cheaper options. we'll dive deeper into both stories and get reaction from

casey newton welcome. steve kovak first, get us through the metaverse meltdown. >> let's break down the year in the metaverse, kelly you have to start with meta, of course, the poster child of the metaverse. just a year ago mark zuckerberg bet his entire company on the metaverse concept. today shares are down about 65% on the year in part because investors aren't happy with the tens of billions of dollars lost trying to build an experiment that may or may not pay off for a decade if it ever pays off at all. this summer the internet had a good chuckle remember this one? over how bad meta's vision for the metaverse looks. this is zuckerberg's avatar selfie i played video games 20 years ago that looked better than what we're looking at right now. consumer interest is falling too. spending on vr headsets fell 2% this year to a little over a billion dollars. to put that in perspective, apple sells about $200 billion worth of iphones a year.

the new metaverse headset debuted to poor reviews in october, but we won't get insight into sales until meta reports earnings likely end of next month but the tri is not giving up on the concept. in february, sony starts selling its vr rig for the playstation 5, and apple finally expected to enter the space with its long-rumored headset at the end of the year. apple's challenge of course will be showing a compelling use case for a technology that rivals haven't been able to prove so far, kelly >> steve, stick around let's bring in casey newton. i'm bullish on the metaverse look at what we're doing right now. we've practically built a metaverse to talk to you guys. this is the future i just don't know how you monetize it right now. >> yeah. i think it's fair to say that the metaverse is at best under construction and sales were weak this year. but i think that's also a hardware story, right? the price of the main oculus headset went up this year, which is rare for any kind of gaming console. and that metaverse pro was

really expensive the real judgment will be at the end of next year once the headsets from sony and apple have come out and meta has had a little more time to do its things >> i feel bad for our listener, not viewers, because if you're viewing, we're coming to you live from the set of "tron: 3, bs" apparently i love steve's reference about video games because the current metaverse looks like block i can figures, like a real-life -- but to your point, in 10, 15 years, it might be ready player 1 it might look like this. is it going to get like that if so, when? >> well, look, i think that what we need to see is a lot of technological advancement on the hardware side. there is just a lot of tech that needs to be first built and then miniaturized, right? it's hard to shrink those batteries down that much, hard to make a headset that won't

overheat once you've done all of that, you need to make it cheap enough to get into a consumer's hands if you believe in the basic idea of technological progress, i think in ten years we'll a lot closer to that vision, but it will be a long wait and i'm not sure how patient metaverse investors will be. >> are there any more under the radar metaverse companies you think could be the real players in this space, kind of the picks and shovels analogy to the gold rush rush-type thing? >> we've been talking about this since the concept came out nvidia might be a beneficiary. cloud companies. aws. but to casey os 's point, the technology is not there yet. but what we have to keep in mind is as we keep talking about these 10-year, 15-year horizons, these companies are selling this stuff now. investors need to see results now and today, not in ten years from now people don't always have a 10-

to 15-year investment horizon to wait for these bets to pay off, kelly. >> sort of been dumping on facebook and zuckerberg for good reason the stock's gotten crushed, casey. but i think about companies, a terrible analogy, not saying facebook is going away, but if global crossing, remember them, if they never laid those transatlantic cables ahead of their time, so much of the growth of fiber and the internet as we know it today wouldn't have been done unfortunately, it bankrupted the company. not saying facebook is going bankrupt but you have to make these big investments now or -- >> should we be grateful they're doing it so we can benefit from it >> that's right. >> i think that's right. ask yourself what would meta be doing if it weren't trying to invent the metaverse it would be playing catch-up with tick cocke and that's about it we know zuckerberg is wanting to own a hardware ecosystem himself

so he can play by his own rules and no one else's. the only way to do that is invent a new hardware platform he was going to have to make an investment like this to build the future he wants. >> steve, thank you. we'll send you back to the real earth. casey, stick around, because next, there could be a whole new ball game for the streaming space. let's talk about this issue now. wall street warning subscriber growth is in danger and consumers will begin dropping services, which means media players need a new strategy. worth mentioning those names all higher today warner brothers discovery, about 7% julia has more for us. >> the new focus in the streaming wars is profitability. gone are the days of media giants chasing subscriber growth at any cost. now, this transformation comes in a year in which netflix shares fell by about half. disney and paramount both lost over 40%, while comcast shares have declined about 30%.

morgan stanley warning that streaming growth is slowing, forecasting that 2023 industry net subscriber additions will be at nearly half the price of 2021, projecting consolidation of companies and services as well as some cost rationalization. and netflix's peak subscriber mace behind it people are dropping their services saying that churn is rising for all streaming platforms. media companies are hoping to stem the turn with lower-cost options like netflix and disney plus both recently launched. there are also some new and some old free ad-supported channels, roku, fox. an original survey conducted for cnbc found about half of americans are interested in switching streaming subscriptions to lower-cost

ad-supported options, with millennials even more interested in discounted options. the other big question is how much this economic downturn could prompt cord cutting and also could impact how much people go out to the movies. brian? >> yeah. where does this go, casey? we have ours we have peacock. it's grat, by the way. >> i like it too >> but, i mean, how many can you have they have to start merging at some point yes? >> that's exactly right. and i would expect we're going to see something in that direction in 2023, right look at some of the redundant streaming services we have out there like paramount plus and sho showtime, both owned by the same parent company why are they separate? disney basically has control of everything in the hulu category. shouldn't hulu just be part of disney i think we'll see moves in that direction next year because as julia pointed out, people are getting tired of the streaming services and with the economy

declining i think consumers will start watching their budgets more closely >> that was one of the predictions from alex sherman as well that netflix -- a couple thought netflix in particular would -- they described it more as a merger. what are you hearing >> oh, yes there's a lot of speculation about the need for m&a i have to say in terms of warner brothers discovery, that company will be launching the combined version. so that combination of streaming services is coming the question is whether we'll see real combination of streaming giants i think the real challenge there, and this is something i've heard a lot about, is concerns about the regulatory environment. netflix is such a massive company, even with its stock down dramatically, that it would be hard to get that kind of deal approved i think going forward over the next couple of years, people are watching paramount, watching to see whether sherry redstone might be willing to split-up some of those assets, or what

does happen with netflix and then of course in terms of hulu, that's an asset that is in motion that people are watching because it is still currently partially own bid cnbc's parent company, comcast, in addition to partially owned by disney. >> i'm going to throw something wild out here and if any of my bosses are listening, please mute the radio or television right now. any chance that nbc either buys or merges with warner bros. discovery? you've got so much debt that you can dilute the debt with the deal, spread the debt out on the warner bros. side. julia is shaking her head and smiling and she knows things julia, what do you know? >> i don't know anything there's nothing official, but this is definitely the type of deal that people have speculated about. the issue is that david needs

more time for the troifransformn of the company he has taken over that could potentially happen further out. the issue is that we have watched the tech giants become media giants we just saw this mega deal that youtube, which is own bid alphabet did for nfl rights. so there's been a convergence between media and technology the more we see the tech giants move into the media space, the more pressure there is on media companies to combine so i think you're smart to raise that as a potential deal, but i don't think that is something that could happen right now. >> look, the other concern i would just throw in there is the regulatory one so far ftc isn't letting anybody buy anything so the idea that they would let comcast and warner bros. come together, i think at the very least that deal is going to get a ton of scrutiny. >> i'm just throwing it out there. julia knows things i may or may not know people in the industry. >> warner bros. discovery, that

stock is so incredibly challenged. >> the debt is the problem if you spin off nbc and merge, take 51% of warner bros., it's a debt dilution deal it's really technical, the financial side i may or may not have heard that bandied about. >> you heard it here first thank you. we really appreciate it, guys. from our metaverse power lunch, it looks like the background of my school photo. >> by the way, i have an important update to earlier in the program. >> do we wait? >> let's wait. >> coming up, a growing real estate crisis in california. san francisco commercial property seeing a surge of vacancies with no savior in sight. plus, some good news in the european energy market we're back after this. landscaps into the heart of iconic cities is a journey for the curious traveler, one that many have yet to discover.

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welcome back to "power lunch." san francisco is known as the golden city, but it's not looking very bright right now. new exclusive data shows the city could be on the verge of a serious commercial real estate crisis we're joined by yasmin to discuss.

n >> it's a record high. this is the 12th straight quarter that it's shot up. just to put this into context, four years ago san francisco had one of the lowest vacancy rates at just under 4% today it's the highest among major cities in the country. for example, preliminary numbers show los angeles is at 18% and washington, d.c. is around 20% >> look, we can go into the social stuff, yasmin, all day long and twice on sunday, but is anybody giving a real reason san francisco is suffering more than other big cities there's remote work in a lot of places, maybe not as much. but san francisco has got a lot of issues. >> it's been bit hardest because of its reliance on tech. that sector was one of the first to really embrace the working from home culture, and with the tech layoffs that we've seen this year, it shouldn't really be surprising that those numbers are starting to turn into deep freeze office space.

for example, the 43 story salesforce tower is sitting half empty right now at 55% what's interesting is that despite all of this, and it looks grim, the tech industry is actually more than 10% larger than it was at the start of th pandemic but most of those companies, such as salesforce, airbnb, lyft, that have decreased their office space, just don't really need that office space anymore they're laying people off and they're consolidating. >> exactly they're the ones doing more work from home. it was interesting, because in our interview last year with duncan davidson, he said he would bet on the bay area being resilient, he would worry more about places like austin and boston that took a lot of bay area people and thinks that they will suffer more, ironically, than san francisco itself. is there any sign of a recovery that you can foresee in the data right now? >> yeah. the analysts that i spoke to were actually optimistic, but

they said there is really no recovery any time soon it will take about a year or two and it's definitely not about san francisco being an unattractive place to be this is more of a correction on tech they say maybe it grew too much and maybe it grew too fast and they're scaling back through layoffs and through real estate. economists tell me that once these tech companies kind of figure out and gain confidence on how to operate in this post-pandemic world, we'll start seeing tech being the economic driver out here in the bay area once again >> yasmin, is anybody talking about the social issues? i was there a few months ago it's tough it's hard to see people passed out in the middle of the sidewalk at 1:00 in the afternoon. i just don't know if people want to deal with that and go back to the office it's a human tragedy, what's happening. you don't need to comment on that that's my comment. but is anybody talking about

that, fixing those problems, people being chased down the street >> they are. and i live and work down here, so i see it every single day. >> so you know. >> i asked the mayor's office about this and it's one of her biggest priorities in terms of the economy leer, she wants to rework and reinvent san francisco, so maybe it's less reliant on tech in the future i've heard people talk about maybe more relying on biotech, different sectors. so we'll see what is clear is that there's no easy fix to this it's not just the working from home, as you mentioned there's a lot of other issues out here, as many other cities are dealing with but people are optimistic that it's going to turn around. >> the mayor is talking about which sector of the economy. i don't care what sector you work in, if you feel unsafe coming to work i just don't know if you're going to go to work. it's one of the greatest

american cities that needs to come back for all the reasons you mentioned and more thank you very much. >> i think that's part of the problem. they're talking about which sector of the economy to bring back do you know why it's work from home because a lot of people don't want to deal with it it can be scary. >> yes, but the question is who is going to try to get in there, fix it, how quickly can that turnaround happen, what's going to form the basis of the industry what happens to those properties in the meantime? are investors left holding the bag? counting down the final trading days, and also days of the year we're going to trade some of the biggest dogs of the year, including two names that were former pandemic darlings are there any worth buying with your hard-earned cash? good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help!

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we're taking a look at some of the worst performers of the year paypal is down 62% year-to-date, amazon down 50%, losing all of its pandemic gains, and tesla down 60% for the year.

david katz is a chief investment officer. i can't wait to see where you come down on them. let's start with paypal. >> after the carnage in technology to year, there are a lot of technology stocks that are falling into the value camp. paypal, one of our favorite stocks right now they have a great long-term franchise management that's finally getting it they've got to control costs 17 times this year's earnings, we think the business is going to do well great price. this is something we would be buying pretty aggressively we would also be buying it before year end because we think it's under a lot of tax selling pressure and window dressing we think you're getting a great business at a great price. >> ringing endorsement for paypal >> what about amazon, sort of p paypal-ish >> amazon is tougher to value but we look at it on a price to

sales basis and that has gotten down to levels that are pretty attractive it sells at about 1.65 times its sales over the last five and ten years it sold between 2 to 3 1/2, so this is another one that we'll be aggressively buying we would be buying it here we think it's probably got about 30% to 50% upside in the upcoming year. same with paypal. >> a big fan of amazon as well in a year that people think we could be talking about recession. >> that's absolutely the case. we think that even though we might have a recession, stocks are going to be valued on the recovery as the year progresses and we think on a recovery paypal and amazon will be very significantly higher. >> so what about tesla >> so we're less enthusiastic there. the stock has finally come down to levels where the valuation is no longer obscene, but we still

think the ceo is definitely doing damage to the franchise with what he's doing at twitter. it no longer is a great thing to own a tesla car because a lot of people are less fond of musk we also think they have competition. we think relative to other automobile companies it's still selling at a rich valuation. we think it's going to have a bounce at the beginning of this year, so we would not be selling it right now but any sort of rally, there are a lot of other places we like a lot better. >> couldn't get them all i had a feeling with that one as well david, great stuff thanks for joining us. >> absolutely. happy and healthy new year. >> thank you. ahead some rare good news in europe's energy crisis and maybe some me orbad news in your grocery aisle. that is next power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain,

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lunch. i am not going to use an egg pun. it is a bad day for cal-maine foods. now, all of this is after reporting that the average selling price for a dozen eggs hit $2.71 this quarter that's double the average price from last year they've got higher feed costs, bird flu, strong demand. it's all meant a lot of egg price inflation. it should be helping them, but,

again, not helping the stock today. premium specialty egg sales up 24% this quarter, conventional egg sales fell 2%. it's a more price sensitive part of the spectrum. premium egg prices actually dipped below conventional egg prices, so that would also help account for the price boost. >> so earlier in the show we talked about chicken meat prices going down but egg prices going up i was mostly kidding when i asked how one goes up and the other goes down. >> you were right to point it out. >> we did have some very nice folks reach out with possible answers and some of them basically laid this out, which is that apparently egg-laying hens are being hit by avian flu. so it's like 60% of the avian flu is hitting egg layers. and the chickens we eat are not egg-laying hens, so they're -- >> totally different.

>> apparently. >> thank you for pointing that out. price for chicken breasts have plunged 70% since june so you're right to point out how can chicken breast prices be down 70% and eggs are way up it turns out they're not related. >> and apparently in the winter hens are just not as prolific laying eggs in the darkness. they prefer longer days. >> now i want to know who your followers are. >> it's more romantic, apparently i don't know. >> by the way, it's not a great observation about the modern food industrial complex that egg and chicken prices are no longer related. >> i guess the chickens themselves are not related there's a lot of stuff in here that's not good for tv. >> there you have it if you were wondering, there's our answer will chicken breast prices stay down we can only hope we showed some of the companies benefitting from hit >> and, by the way, i was just looking online and a local store sold out of a lot of eggs.

i guess the avian flu thing is a real thing in certain parts of the country. positive news out of europe, european natural gas prices falling this week to their lowest levels since before russia's invasion of ukraine the benchmark contract, the dutch facility, plunged in recent weeks to 77 megawatts per hour that is the lowest level since february after a peak this summer, european gas prices were $345 euros, sending energy bills soaring. you've got storage levels stable for now because the weather has been almost perfect for most of the past few months. it has been unseasonably warm. for example, it's going to be 55 degrees in munich, germany, today. even though european gas prices are down, they are still five to six times what we are paying right now.

77 euros per megawatt hour, what does that mean it's about $26 u.s. dollars per contract we're paying $4.5. when i hear people saying it's fine is it fine to have 6x natural gas prices >> a lot of our nat gases are trapped because of the lng export outage. still impressive that european prices have come down. we've avoided the worst of the crisis but it's still a huge pinch point for consumers. >> it's literally all about the weather. as we reported a couple weeks ago, they never refilled storage with no pipeline gas they're going to try to do something next year that they have never done in the modern era, and so much of it is just going to come down to the weather and whether industries -- carmakers might say we can't afford to make a car, we're going to shut down. >> be sure to tune into "taking

stock" tonight we're going to focus on china. we've got kyle bass on we'll talk about their energy needs. "taking stock" join us. >> nick barty was bearish last hour he said it wasn't that strong last year. you don't need any more warning spots. we've had enough thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. the year end rally investors have been promised stocks surge today this is the make or break our. i'm mike santoli the s&p 500 is around 2%, it's been in that 3850 zone for a couple of hours. some of the largest stocks in the nasdaq are leading the way, playing catchup. you see the nasdaq up abou