be perfect and it worked for a day in january, or a few daisy an then we got a little bit of a story change. >> it's been a tremendous rotation out of tech as you know. >> it really has. >> and remains the biggest question mark going into the new year i'll so you to morning, by the way. >> that's true. >> of a good one, all of you as wellful "fast money" begins now. right now a major rebound on wall street. the nasdaq soaring more than 2.5% as markets try to close out on a high note of the s&p and dow climbing back into positive territory for the week but with major indices firmly in the red for the year, is this rally all too little too late? southwest shares rising even as the airline cancels more flights. does this week's turbulence set the stage for more skcrutiny fo the entire industry? and we're taking a spin in the time machine and heading back, back, way back to the

1970 that's the last time a couple of b b big-name companies did as well as they have now i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money" live in the heart of times square. we start tonight off with a countdown to the end of what has been a painful year for the markets. even with today's gains major indices well on pace for their best gains sense the financial crisis we thought we'd ask our traders what chart they think holds the key to the markets in 2023 dan nathan, let's start off with your most important chart. >> yeah, let's talk about the largest bank stock in the market that's jpmorgan. it obviously has tremendous exposure to rates, to consumer credit, to housing, to corporate credit the list goes on and on geographically and that sort of

thing. when i think back a year ago, jpmorgan was near its all-time highs, it was considered best of breed as far as banks were concerned. it led to the downside in january and february and took large parts of the market with it, at least the signaling of its leadership to the downside we've had a huge rally off of the mid-october lows it doubled the performance of the s&p 500 from the mid-october lows to just recently. now, it's come in a little bit i think this will be real important as we enter the new year you look at that chart from a technical standpoint and it looks like an epic head and shoulders top. that pai pair ball -- parabolic mo movement i know that rate increases will

ending but how long will they stay this elevated for. >> and how would he characterize the storm that is still a brewing because that is sort of the headline that he made the last team he had some significant commentary about the environment we were heading in, whether it be hurricane sandy or just a passing storm here. jeff mount stills, would you be watching jpmorgan as well? >> jbanks overall, the relative performance relative to the s&p 500 has not been great it's recovered a little bit over the last week or so but i think overall with banks, with some of the better names like jpmorgan or bank of america, i don't want to be heavily exposed heading into a recession and that is our base case. jpmorgan said it during last last earnings call, if you get unemployment to 6%, we've never had a recession with unemployment below 6%.

you see loan demand come in and i think that's a headwind to earnings even at these valuations, which look pretty attractive, i think banks end up being a tough spot from relative performance perspective in '23. >> so he likes the chart in terms of what it may indicate but does not like the stock. how about you? >> well, i mean dan was channeling his inner carter braxton worth with that and jpmorgan is the most expensive on valuation but the question is in this environment and the environment we seem to be going into, is this the right valuation and i think probably not i still think some of these bank valuations can go lower. and i think it's going to be tough shledding in the first hal of the year and it's what i bring up as my chart of the year in a business that's a tease. >> your chart is going to be last, i'm telling you that up front. courtney is up next with her most important chart court, what are you watching >> i would take a look at the

ishares china et fchl. we've talked about emerging markets. the smart is pretty fascinating because it hit a bottom well before october so that's really what's top of mind on investors' minds right now. but this bottom well before that, i think it's showing you that this is due for a rebound you almost see a v-shaped recovery here. realistically looking into 2023, china, the second largest economy in the world, finally reopening, when you look at gdp, it's only one of the large economies expected to have decent growth so i think this is something you want to take a look at going into 2023. >> dan >> yeah, i'm less optimistic about what china has to offer for global growth. a large part has to do the way in which they have managed covid, the way in which the globe has decided or the west has decided that they cannot be dependent on chinese for the

cheap manufacturing that they relied on upon decades here. i think deglobalization will continue to be a thing and i think that ait will ratchet up this economic war. i think we've emerged from covid on a bipolar world on a host of different levels so i don't think we'll have the integration with the chinese economy that we've had the last ten years, which has been a boon since the financial crisis. >> i think the point courtney is making in terms of the most recent bottom and that is the end of october, beginning of november we saw it for many of the individual stocks that we watch typically on the show such as alibaba, jd.com. so what did that tell us about where china was headed if those stocks were bottoming months before zero covid was lifted, guy? do you look at this maybe now that that was it you sell the news, so to speak >> yeah, well, listen, you know

this alibaba has been in a downtrend basically the better part of two and a half years i think what you've just seen from that low of about 58.60 on an intraday low, is exactly that the reopening trade in cheaina, that would be very bullish but does that make it if they reopen in a meaningful way, it adds to the pretty visible inflation problem? i don't know that a china reopen or robust china helps in the long run what we're trying to combat. >> it seems like it might complicate things, jeff mills. by the time china gets to herd ' immunity status or where it can manage the waves of covid we're seeing, that should be when the federal reserve's rate hikes take effect because of that lag effect there so you have all of that hitting the economy and all of these

stw inflationary forces. that sounds like a conundrum to me. >> yeah, i think that that's true in terms of trying to figure out the interplay in all of the macro if you go back to the bottoming of a lot of these china equity na names, some of the u.s. steel names, they started to eperk up as well and have been holding up so maybe they're trying to sniff out what china means for global growth and demand. but to guy's point, maybe that perpetuates the inflation situation that overall isn't good for our markets i just think in china, it's very likely you see some consolidation near term. you have the china etf up 40% at resistance a name like baba up 60% at resistance i do agree with dan that the whole covid thing is kind of a mess right now and probably will be for some time but to courtney's point, i think the second half of the year, the covid situation starts to improve a little bit, you're

going to get a tailwind from some stimulus there. then the growth starts to pick up so i do think it could be an interesting story to watch for the second half of next year. >> so, jeff, what is your chart? >> yeah. so it's been kind of a macro driven year so i'll give you a macro chart. i'm not sure there's anything that's been a bigger driver of markets than this and it's looking at negative yielding debt this peaked out at over $18 trillion of negative yielding debt and we're basically down to zero what does that mean? number one, i hope it means that this era of reckless policy is over it clearly means that money is no longer free it means that growth at any cost is dead. that's what we've seen in the market this year i don't think that that changes any time soon. and it also means that for the first time in a very long time there is an alternative to stocks this move from $18 trillion in negative yielding debt to

basically zero is such a huge driver to your point, mel, this move higher in global short rates is only starting to impact the global economy so we'll see that work its way through the system next year. i said this on friday and i'll ending with this some markets are ripe for risk taking, others are not i think this move in rates that we see via this chart, it just means that 2023 is not a year to be swinging for the fences. >> all right let's segue into another area, the bond market. and that brings us to guy adami's chart, the most important one to watch in your view is? >> i think jeff would agree with this as well and we talked about this, but hyg, the high yield bond etf this historically doesn't trade until it does. this was an $88 item this time last year, plummetted in october. there are no longer business cycles, there are credit cycles. my concern, i don't think

there's a fed put in the form of the s&p. it probably comes in about a thousand points lower than we currently are. but there is a fed put in two thing. probably in the form of unemployment around 5% and if the credit market deteriorates so if you know to watch one th thing or many things, one of the things you have to watch is how credit trades specifically in the form of the hyg. how much corporate debt is coming due in the next few years? and is that a risk to markets if companies are forced to refinance at higher rates? joining us now to explain is steve liesman. the only person who's made it here on set with me. >> i was going to have some fun with people today, but everybody is remote. >> sorry >> anyway, melissa, as you guys know and all the panelists know, debt makes downturns worse and wall street is keeping a close eye on corporate debt and the fed with the 2008 financial crisis fresh in mind one positive factor, so-called

rollover risk. that's the amount of debt that comes due each year. it's a relatively tame but still meaningful trillion dollars. that's about 10% of the corporate bond market. bigger problems are in 2024 and especially in '25 and '26. the head of credit research at cantor fitzgerald says high yield and investment grade are in decent shape but that doesn't mean there won't be pockets of pain we'll be paying a lot of attention on how companies manage earnings and cash flow. rollover risk is just one concern. earnings could come under pressure issuers then have to pay higher rates and a premium because of default concerns there's already, you can see it's the other side of guy's chart there. hefty default premiums and rates. yields on the lowest junk bonds have doubled from 8% to north of 15%. investment grade more than doubled to just below 2% to above 5% on average.

daniel ivascyn says when you enter a recession, you never know if it's mild or not and you've got to be real cautious about most economically sensitive sectors of the market. so pimco prefers these sectors that are less sensitive to cyclical downturns utilities, wireless towers and some tech. they call it mission critical software aerospace, food and restaurants. and the optimistic scenario here, the fed begins to cut rates before 2024 when the rollovers start. the current high level of rates suggest, though, the street is preparing for a worst case outcome. >> how does a person like him think about investing in corporate debt at this point the bond market has had a terrible year, no matter what corner you're in there's a lot of corporate debt that's highly, highly rated from the companies we all know that are held by -- not trading well. maybe these are opportunities. >> i think it's true you know, he said he doesn't

love credit here but he doesn't hate it either. that's part of his job is to look for different places where there could be value and i like to say there is no risk except the risk you're not being compensated for. so to the extent that you go out and get those junk bonds and get 15%, ask yourself the question, are you be compensated for that risk you want to watch the spreads. one quick thing, melissa, there is a little ace in the hole here for your corporate bond investor at these rates, there's not a whole lot of issuance. >> right. >> so supply will contract and otherwise remain the same at these levels so that could help spreads a bit there. >> guy >> steve, that's a great scenario you just pointed out, the fact that maybe we see a fed easing cycle when a lot of this stuff is due you've done this a long time do you think these corporations understand that and will try to game it out by using sort of

short-term debt to bridge until the point they can start looking a little longer term >> so let me start off by saying any cfo who didn't term out his or her debt should lose their license to use excel in my opinion. that's pretty much what they were doing and what they did and it looks like, guy, they could have done this the right way. if you look at that chart again and you looked at the bulk of this rolls over '24, '25, it looks like the cfo were pretty smart. there's an area, which is the private credit market and clo debt that has very few covenants in it. that's another area we'll have to watch out for those have risen to be north of a trillion dollars but this looks like if they hit this right, this 2025 big peak right there, they might have hit it just right. >> the thing thattroubles me i that it will still be a while before rates actually come down. let's say the fed starts cutting in 2024. how quickly are they going to

cut? and the rates comparatively to what the rates are right now, which is probably pretty much 0 for a lot of that corporate debt is still going to be relatively highful and what is the catalyst that forces the fed to cut rates, a recession so earnings or weak? yeah, it would be better if the fed starts cut rates in 2024 but it doesn't solve the problems. >> i want to srespond to one par that you mentioned if inflation remains high and we hit a recession, don't look for the fed to come and bail you out. guy is 100% right. there is a fed put when it comes to systemic reisk. but there's not a fed put when it comes to default and losses in the private sector. there's a difference there and that could make the scenario worse. but you're right, most of these

companies will be refinancing into higher rates. just imagine if your $100,000 more mortgage, your payment impose up from $8,000 to $100,000 on the junk bond level. they'll have to watch themselves if they want to main taken their profit margin. >> steve, always a pleasure. thanks for coming in. >> my pleasure. coming up, car stocks hitting all green lights in today's market one options trader making a big bet on one name. that action ahead. first, netflix moving higher on a double upgrade. what has one analyst all bulled on the streaming stock much more "fast money" in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. netflix jumping more than 5% after a double upgrade analysts raising their rating to a buy from a sell saying it will be tough for competitors to catch up to the streaming giant, even if it doesn't lock in a major sports event that's all because of netflix' new ad-supported tier. julia boorstin has more on this. >> well, melissa, netflix shares

may have gained a lot today and it's actually the leader of the faang stocks over the past six months if you go back to the againing beginning of 2022, it has been a tough year shares are down fft% disney and paramount lost 44%. warner brothers discovery share are down 60% the focus is away from chaesing subscriber growth. they are forecasting 2023 industry net additions at roughly half the 2021 pace, projecting scconsolidation companies. peak subscribers may be behind it because churnes rising for all streaming platforms. they are hoping to stem that churn with lower cost add-supposed options such as those that netflix and disney plus launched in the last couple

of months of they're also hoping to see growth in pluto tv, the roku channels, amazon's free v channel and fox's. a survey found that half of americans are interested to switching to lower cost add-supported option now, with an economic downtdownturn, the question is not how much people are paying for subscriptions but how much this could prompt more cord cutting and also what the impact will be on movie going >> thank you, julia boorstin netflix has soared 80% off its may lows dan, you've been watching this. >> i think that morgan stanley data about net subscribers in 2023 and how they're tracking relative to 2021 is really important. i think there's been a lot of

devastation across media and many of these subscriber-based models as far as technology are consumer focused but things get worse before they get better in 2023 everything i was listening to steve talk about, the corporate debt moarket, it results in cos rationalization and layoffs. unemployment is very near record lows so i think a consumer that is getting a bit strapped here, they're going to continue to look for lower cost ways to me i don't think you buy these things here. i like disney for a lot of the reasons that maybe the analyst likes netflix here but i'm not a buyer yet of these names i think you'll get a better opportunity early next year to do that. >> and for disney at least, it was yesterday's so bad it's good offering from steve grasso which carter worth laughed at.

courtney, do you like disney >> i would choose disney over netflix here i do get the idea that an ad-supported tier would help when you look at netflix, it is slowing growth i don't see their subscribers pick up the way it has and especially amidst such competition like disney. it trades at over 30 times next year's earning disney comes in a lot cheaper. they just brought in a new ceo so i would absolutely choose disney rather than netflix. >> i'd personally rather pay for fewer subscriptions than suffer through ads. i don't know how you guys feel i feel like the horse is out of the barn i don't know where that expression came from, buts gone. it's gone so far, you cannot see the tail or mane or any part of that horse i have no patience with ads. i wonder if more people -- people say in surveys they're willing to do that but in the end they're leike, u,

i cannot stand there. >> my kid watching tv are like what is this i stumbled across this chart from piper sandler today and thought it was interesting spending on streaming is still 13% above the pre-covid trend. not the level but the extrapolated trend so there is more money going in that direction than might be sustainable if we see things get pared back or growth slows so i did think that was interesting from a cyclical perspective. ultimately what's going to be the catalyst for a stock like disney is having this all become net cash flow positive i think that's the key i think if more people look to the ad-based tier, that generates more revenue per user. an increase in subscription fees, even if it comes at the cost of growth, if you start to see evidence of that, if you start to see evidence of profitability estimates being pulled forward, that could be a catalyst for a stock like disney

at these levels. but i do agree with dan, cyclical headwinds, that spending trend are going to be challenges over the next couple of quarters. >> better entry, guy, just quickly. >> i think so. clearly you're not a fan of the old school fast money advertisements that used to run. there was a faction of people -- >> when you were singing the holiday carols it was amazing ho, ho, ho do you have a trade? does this continue or that's it? >> so listen, i'll say quickly we talked about it in the spring when netflix traded down to 180 collectively we said that these valuations it was a screaming buy. it was going to fill a gap a little north of 300. now it's no man's land everything that's happening is what tom rogers said but i think you're looking for an exit level here rather than an entry level on the long side. >> there's a lot more "fast

money" to come here's what's coming up next. the auto trade revving up from legacy car makers to the new kids on the ev block the sector seeing a lot of green today. we dive into the options pits to see if the rally has gas. plus, calling all flower children it's about to get groovy as we throw it back for a 1970s special edition of "trade it or fade it. go grab your jackson brown 8-track tape because you're not going to want to miss this you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money. wall street's last gasp for a

year-end rally coming to the auto stocks. options traders are betting the gains could be bigger in the new year mike khouw has the action. >> on what would be a relatively slow week we did see well above average call volume. ford was 1.7 times its daily average call volume. the we saw over 25,000 january strike calls trade at a quarter and several institutional blocks buyers are betting the rally will continue. >> courtney, do you also like ford >> i like ford it is dirt cheap and they're bringing down their costs, becoming more profitable i do think short term interest rates and vehicle profitability will continue to just be an issue for not just ford but your autos in general so i would wait a little bit here if you're looking at a one to

three-year time horizon, absolutely look at ford. >> mike, thanks. we'll see you tomorrow which is the final "options action" of 2022 full show tomorrow 5:th30 easten time. coming up, we'll be joined by chris harvey, head of equity s strategy. and southwest shares flying high today but should investors expect more turbulence ahead the trade when we come right back stay tuned. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're ba rhtft ts.ckig aerhi

welcome back to "fast money. stocks, the market staging a powerful rally one day trading to go in 2022. the dow is up 345 points, the nasdaq leading the gains up more than 2.5%. meta platforms among big tech's biggest winners at that, bouncing more than 4% but it is down 64% this year

what did you make of this rally, guy? >> well, people chalk it up to seas seasonality. they'll chalk it up to it's a dull market. look at the move back in march, in october, in june of the we've seen rallies along way but we have had a series of lower highs an lower low since this time last year and i don't see anything changing in the foreseeable future i think a lot of junk got marked up but as you know i'm not particularly bullish here. >> i know you're not big tech seemed to bounce today. jeff, was that just a head fake? >> yeah, you know, i think it depends where you're looking so you mentioned meta, but think about these stocks, like tesla, apple, microsoft, google, nvidia i looked at those names today. they're an average of 44% above their pre-covid highs, even with the moves lower we've seen this year obviously earnings are higher

but the question is do those earnings come down and earnings have come up but pes aren't dramatically lower. apple was trading at 23 times, now it's trading at 20 times so you're getting a bit of a valuation benefit there. but it's not that much and then on the other side you have an amazon and a meta. they're an average of i think 35 or 36% below those pre-covid highs. they are a lot cheaper from a valuation standpoint and in my opinion, they're still pretty darn good businesses, so i think you have to start making distinctions between names where you're being given sort of a valuation gift versus names which maybe haven't re-rated yet to the extent that they probably will. >> let's get more on today's rally as well as the outlook for 2023 and bring in wells fargo securities, which expects growth stocks to make a come back chris harvey is with us. >> great to be here. >> you like services over stuff.

that's a big theme for 2023. does that mean tech? does that mean growth? what does that mean? >> it doesn't mean tech. so we're underweight tech hardware and that's part of stuff. just quickly on the theme, the theme for 2023 is services over stuff because the u.s. consumer has gorged him or herself on housing, on cars, on goods they have a new basement their basement is full of stuff. they have a new garage their garage is full of stuff. stuff is falling off the shelves. what we expect to see the consumer do is move from spending on goods to spending on experiences. where that puts us, we think it's midcap growth we think you're going into an environment where growth -- where inflation is coming down, where economic growth is slowing, where rates have either peaked or going to peak. then when we looked around the growth space we still don't look large cap growth but midcap growth is trading at 14 times earnings.

you've derated for multiple years. you've got an oversold situation that's beginning to bounce and you've had expectations that have been lowered. so we think that it's the midcap growth space. >> what's the one thing that would derail this thesis the one thing that you're thinking that could be the thing? >> i think the one thing that could derail everything is does the fed -- so the fed has been very loud and very convincing. we're going to get to 5% and stay there but if the fed gets to 5% and stays there for a while, doesn't like what it sees and starts to move rates even higher, that can just derail everything and that's the fly in the ointment for 2023. does the fed get more aggressive we don't think so. we think they stay in and around that 5%, but that could be a major issue for us and for all styles and for all parts of the risk market and equity market.

>> hey, chris, it's jeff mills so i've been talking about some sort of quality growth thesis, maybe the growth surprises people a little bit in terms of style loeadership. you glanced across the idea that maybe that translates into large cap as well. hit on that a little bit specifically and are there any other areas in the traditional s&p 500 names that you're looking at >> sure. so a lot there and let me see if i can take it all apart. the first thing i would say is on the market in general, we think things have to get worse before they get better we think the equity market will go down the first half of the year but we will rally after that why will we rally? it gets back to the macro bac backdrop you have a lower growth environment, lower inflationary environment. growth has de-rated from a price and earnings point of view when you have that macro backdrop, we think that's very conducive for growth stocks and the s&p 500 is more or less a

growth index of within the s&p 500 is its median entertainment space. there's a lot of former high flyers that are trading with a real pce and we think there's real value there at the end of the day, it's still midcap growth. >> chris, great to see you thanks so much courtney, do you like what chris is pitching for 2023 >> i mean he definitely made some really valid points here. whether it's your large cap or midcap and not overweighting growth here. i think some of the higher rates will put some pressure on there. i can see both sides of this but i'm not overweighting this currently. >> dan >> yeah, you know,it's funny it seems like there's a lot of very smart investors, strategists out there, who think that the prior leaders are not going to be the leaders out of this bear market and i kind of disagree with that i really feel like the way the market is constructed right now,

the stock market, that some of the mega cap tech names, they're not even that impacted by higher rates because they have these tremendous monopolies, so i expect mega cap tech to lead when we do bottom and those are the names that i want to dollar cost average at some point next year when it feels ugly you're going to have to hold your nose an do it because no one will ring the bell at the bottom, but i think that safety in the microsoft, apple, amazon and google, that's where you're going to want to be as we emerge from this bear market. still to come, what does a specialty chemicals company have in common with a discount retallier? nothing, except they're both in the favorite guam "trade it or fade it" coming up soon. shares of southwest feel a little love today but how much will this week's cancellations affect the results we'll get the latest when "fast money" returns. lock in your membership now.

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welcome back to "fast money. the meltdown at southwest airlines this past week will certainly hit q4 results according to the company's chief financial officer. he didn't pro vide an estimate o how much damage it will cost southwest shares were slightly lower but didn't erase today's gains. c ceo bob jordan expects the company will return to normal operations tomorrow and all hand are on deck to support restored operations as this continues to drag on, flights were cancelled today, guy, there are growing calls for another passenger bill of rights for guaranteed refunds of flight delays that are more than three hours. the airlines that took pandemic aid have more of an obligation to do this does this hang over the industry >> it should it absolutely rehensible what's

on you can't watch the news without seeing people stranded at airport, luggage strewn across rose and rose of the baggage claim, lines that seemingly extend longer than the men's room at madison square garden during a ranger playoff game it's ridiculous, so there should be a bill of rights. with that said, these airlines get away with murder i want to point you towards boeing quickly we topped out at 193 and look at where we cascaded from this spring i think you take your money and run at boeing and let the chips fall where they may in the airlines. >> courtney, you are right in the middle of all of this with a dog, a 1-year-old and a husband and you had to drive from new mexico to california to complete your trip. so how do you feel about this as an investor, from an investing standpoint >> i clearly would not have gotten a flight for days so wish me luck getting back to new

york but as an investor, despite all of this craziness, and i was one of the ones who had a flight cancelled on me, i do still like the airlines here. i think they're well valued. southwest and delta are the names that i like. i think that they continue to have good balance sheets this clearly is going to affect this quarter's earnings and i think that's going to be something to continue to watch as we could see short-term dips. but i would look at these as longer term opportunities because the demand for travel is not going away the valuation looks great and they have become more efficient after covid. so i think longer term despite what's going on right now, i do actually still like the airlines. >> jeff, do you think this could be an overhang for the airlines? they were just talking about investigating this on hill, calling people up. calling airline executives, how come there's no bill of rights, this, that and the other thing as we're trying to trade them. >> well, it's not going to help, right? i think it's an industry that was already challenged from a fundamental perspective. you clearly had some big

encr increases in debt and all sorts of things that have happened since 2020 we've talked about airlines a bunch and i don't think i've said anything nice about them since. they are cheap so that's one thing. play for a bounce,s not a crazy strategy, it's just not a place that interests me. guy took the word out of my mouth. i think they are trading vehicles, they have been ked mu dead money for 20 years sglrchls coming up, trade it, fade it or post it. get ready to take notes for our favorite game of "fast money" is back i two.

welcome back to "fast money. a retro reversal happening on wall street. check out these stocks having their worst years sense 1970s. vfcorp, disneys are target, all posting huge losses in 2022. jeepers creepers i guess it's a '70s thing. so we thought this would be a perfect time to play a little game of -- >> trade it or fade it. >> a retro '70s etdiedition.

let's kick it off with vf corp having its worst year since 1972 courtney, trade it or fade it. >> i'd fade this year. something like their north face brand hasn't been doing it and they are working off excess inventory so they'll have lower mong margins the next couple of quarters so i'd fade it. >> jeff, trade it or fade it >> i'll trade it here. i said we bought a very small position about a month ago and a dividend strategy we have. i think the sizing of our position balances the risk that we're talking about relative to growth and the consumer. now, i do agree with courtney in that their position in the retail market isn't great. i used the word middling brands. it's not high end, it's not discount it fall's in that no man's land which i don't know is necessarily great but at the

same time nothing is broken with the company. it pays a massive dividend which they seem committed to so for the strategy we own the stock in, i think it's interesting at these prices. next up, 3m's worst year since 1974 when barbra streisand's "the way we were" was topping the charts guy, trade it or fade it >> i fade that song but i'll trade triple m it's been -- listen, it's been an awful stock i think some of the bad news is out. that ear plug litigation, they're moving it to a subsidiary i think all these things are in the rear-view mirror valuation is somewhat compelling they report in the middle of january. this is a stock that levitated earnings, so trade it. >> courtney, trade it or fade it, triple m. >> i'd fade this year. thisses a company that doesn't have a lot of pricing power. they really aren't going to increase their profitability

it's pricing power you want next year i don't think they have it so i would fade this. moving on, disney also not seeing declines like this since 1974 dan, trade it or fade it >> i'd trade this one and this is one i think you start dollar cost averaging if it gets back to those pandemic lows in and around 80. i know thiss s is a consensus thought that bob iger is back and why would you bet against bob iger with the stock where it is when where it's trading on the out year, i think he'll come in and start kitchen sinking the current year i think it's going to be a great buy for the next few years here. >> where were you on wall street in 1974, guy would you trade or fade disney >> i was celebrate my 50th birthday it's interesting you said nixon administration because i

actually voted for him the first time against kennedy that would be 1960, just so you understand my age here many i'll going to fade disney i don't understand dan's answer, i don't know if he was trading it or fade it but i'll play the game correctly and say fade. if the market is taking a leg lower, disney won't be spared. fade. target having its worst year since 1973 when "the exorcist" was a top grossing movie jeff, trade it or fade it? >> yeah, i worry a little beth about the product mix with the target home furnishings 20% of sales, apparel another 20%. i don't want to make this a would you rather but it's a more cyclical business than walmart so i think there are better alternatives if you're looking for a stock like this. >> mills pulled a grasso tonight. you pulled a grasso. you played the game and then made it your own dan, would you trade it or fade it >> i'm going to comment on the game first things first i've been on wall street for 25

years. no one says buy or sell right here right now, that sort of thing. >> so you hate this game >> i just think it's that guy is coming at me i'm saying -- i'm going to buy this into support. i'll going to do the same thing with target. so i'm trading it. i think they'll get some inventory positions under control. >> it wasn't all bad news. occidental petroleum having its best, yes, best year since at least 1972 guy, trade it or fade it >> i'll trade that sucker playing it the correct way and i'll say i like energy energy stocks have held in rather well despite the commodity trade it. up next

. final trade time courtney >> mchi. on a china reopening i'd take a look at this play. >> dan >> yeah, jetblue i'd stop it on the downside at 6 and a target of 8 on the upside. >> jeff mills.

>> yeah, danaher it looks like it's putting in a bottom and i think it's an outperformer in '23. >> guy. >> psx has a date with the summer of 2018 highs, melms. >> thanks for watching "fast money. the "taking stock: 2023" with a focus on china starts right now welcome to this cnbc special, "taking stock." i am brian sullivan. jim has the week off tonight a deep dive into the world's second biggest economy, china. moving to ease its district zero covid measures sooner than many expected, all amid a spike in cases there. that is touching off concerns the move could actually cause more short-term pain, not just for china but around the world more short-term pain is not what any investor is looking for. the shanghai compote