that is what we're known for. >> i think you've got people that are embarrassed that they feel like they were had, and, boy, do i ever sympathize with those folks, because they were had. they were completely deceived had. they were completely deceived and betrayed. -- captions by vitac -- it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." investors gearing up for the ultimate, final trading day of 2022 stocks staging a rally on thursday trying to chip away at a tough year for markets now one stock feeling the pain of 2022 is tesla. shares are set to wrap up down 65%. poised for the worst year ever. hitting the hereset button southwest after the disastrous

week. and apparent sitdowns with biden administration aides before sam bankman-fried's collapse. and preparing to ring in the new year as people bid farewell to 2022. good riddance. it is friday, december 30th, 2022 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan happy almost new year's eve. let's kickoff the hour with futures indicated in the red you can see the dow jones industrial average implied higher down 120 points and s&p

down 15 and nasdaq down 30 the nasdaq surged by 2.5% on thursday that pop doing little to put a dent in the tough december for markets. not factoring in today's moves the dow is set to close down 4%. the s&p down 5.5%. the nasdaq down 8.5% overall, look at the moves we have seen with the s&p down 19%. that's the year. this is adding to the 2022 losses all three are on pace with the worst yearly performances since the great financial crisis in 2008 barring today's moves, dow shedding 8.5% and nasdaq down 33%. if you check on the bond market, they are ticking higher.

10-year treasury is 3.85%. 2-year treasury below 4.4% the 30-year treasury is 3.93% right now. in energy, oil prices have seen near term upside thanks to the china reopening. pessimism is coming back with the covid cases in the secont e. wti crude prices are down 57 cents. 77.84% .50% decline for ice brent nat gas prices down $4.53 right now. in cryptocurrency, it has been around the 16,000 mark we're still there. bitcoin is down to $16,511 ethereum below $1,200.

let's get a check of asia and european markets for 2022. we turn to julianna tatelbaum who is in london with the latest hi, julianna dom, good morning. happy almost new year to you i'm kicking off the asian market which has turned to china the last couple weeks as the country begins to open up and ease up on the key covid restrictions for the year overall, it has been a tough one for asian markets. similar to europe and u.s. key regions are lower in europe. shanghai and hong kong and nikkei are all down on the year. question marks around what is in store for china in 2023 as the country moves through what happens when people can move around and covid restrictions

are lifted turning to europe, stocks retreat after gaining ground the stoxx 600 rallied 0.7% modest upside since stateside. it doesn't change the fact year to date the stoxx 600 is down 12%. nearly every yregion in europe i in the red except ftse 100 it is in positive territory for the year in large part because of the heavy exposure to the oil industry shell and bp up 35% year to date and the check on the pound which has been a fascinating mover back in september, it plunged to 107. back up to 120 that is one to watch in the year ahead. dom, back to you. >> julianna tatelbaum, have a happy new year see you next week. let's get a check of the top

stories with silvana henao >> good morning, dom southwest is resuming normal schedules today after a week of cancellations that left thousands of passengers stranded the airline hopes for minimal disruption according to flightaware, three dozen southwest flights have been canceled today compared to 2,300 on thursday. southwest leaders say they expect the meltdown to hit fourth quarter results with the process of working through travelers' reimbursements taking several weeks. the cdc is talking new steps to track new variants of covid as exceptions in china surge the agency may sample waste water taken from international flights. infection disease experts say that policy offers a better solution to tracking the virus and slowing entry into the u.s. compared to new travel restrictions announced this week

by the u.s. and other countries. details emerging in the bankruptcy of ftx. authorities reveal they took control of $3.5 billion of digital assets of ftx markets after ait filed for chapter 11. it did so provided by information from sam bankman-fried. dom. >> silvana henao with the latest thank you very much. turning back to markets and the look at the latest delivering alpha investor surve and our cnbc contributors. we asked for outlook on what returns to expect in 2023. a little over 27% saythey expect gains between 1% and 5% on 40% say they see returns between 6% and 10% 18% seeing gains between 11% and

19% and 6%, yes, said they see returns of 20% or more the real bullish guys. 9% of responders are forecasting negative returns for next year generally speaking, we're positive for more on what to expect for the markets in 2023, let's bring in matt orton at raymond james management matt, you heard the results. everyone seems bullish for delivering alpha is that the conkconsensus? can we expect a decent year in 2023 >> good morning, dom happy almost 2023. what is interesting about the results is a pretty wide distribution that is reflective of the uncertainty heading into 2023. it feels good seeing people more positive on equity markets it has been a lousy 2022 with

investor pessimism i think people want to be more optimistic what i have been telling our clients is volatility is here to stay at least with the first half of 2023 there is still uncertainty with respect to terminal rates. there is peak inflation narrative and the economic slowdown potential we have to work through that that is why i have been adamant most of the year it pays to lean into higher quality companies and to companies with dividend growth growth at a reasonable price those parts of the markets are performing on the down side and also on the up side. you are not giving up much for vinvestors that want to be aggressive and lean into the

markets and a great opportunity, small cap in the u.s. look interesting for a number of compelling reasons. >> matt, because i'm paid to ask questions and often times push back on certain things -- i've lost track, matt, of how many analysts we have had on air the last several weeks say the same thing. they expect to be choppy first quarter or set you will for a decent second half of the year if that is consensus, what's to stop from saying you know, let's get in now and drive the narrative by the wayside and we may actually see a rally? >> i welcome a rally i think that's why leaning into sectors or healthcare or leaning

into the nominal price and growers, you are still growing with respect to the positioning. they have worked in mid-october through the local peak we had the beginning of december as well. being defensive helps capture up side exposure why myself and others are pi pessimistic in the beginning of next year is the market has not caught up to the fed i don't know why the market expect a big pivot when the narrative has not played out so far this year. the economy will slow, but in my opinion, we are probably going to have a real recession, not a nominal recession. meaning we're still going to have nominal growth. the scale of the recession probably isn't going to be as dark as a lot of people are expecting. that gives the fed the ability

to reach its terminal rates. it has been consistent in saying rates are higher for longer. the market still hasn't caught up to that that is the key reason why we're still going to be choppy and still likely to see down side volatility early next year the market has to catch up to what the fed is doing. >> matt orton from raymond james. thank you. when we come back on the show, more on the final trading day of 2022 and which stocks take the top spot or the bottom spot in the s&p 500 this year. we have all the names you need to know. and pippa is here to breakdown the latest. and the biden administration reveals a plan for electric vehicle incentives a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break

even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." call it a tale of two energy sectors in 2022. clean energy stocks suffered and we have pippa stevens with more. what happens in 2023 >> it was a different year for various parts of the energy ecos ecosystem. we have seen this before

one portion of energy out performs and another suffers xle lost 37% and pbw gained 40%. and this year with the xle is up 46%. old energy has been the top sector for the last two years and that's notable because no sector has led for three years according to daily trade there are bearish and bullish factors at play. on the bear side, global economic slowdown could cut oil demand free cash flow will be lower this year due to sliding economy prices investors also might take profits. on the flip side, earnings look good at $80 wti. the sector has earnings

visibility and management teams are focused on shareholder returns. one area to watch next year is the oilfield names beyond that, it has been a lag laggard. the two could benefit from increase in drillers dom. >> energy was the key sector story of 2022 what were the gig evident developments beyond the movement to get off russian energy has there been anything we have been talking about which pr propelled it in 2022 and will it propel it in 2023? >> it was key in 2022. we saw people talk about energy security in a way we really hadn't seen in years i think one of the themes is the energy transition is not going to happen overnight nor will it be a lineal line forward that doesn't mean progress isn't

still being made we saw the huge surge of coal use this year. we saw catastrophic weather events with the droughts we had the european union with the commitment on renewables here in the u.s., the largest climate bill was passed. there was a shift in that regard i think the consumer angle is interesting. we all felt the impact of spiking fossil fuel prices utility bills are still surging. a system that consumers had taken for granted was looked at with fresh eyes. >> you talk about clean energy and europe has been at the front of it and now at odds with the u.s. because of the subsidies. a lot of battle going on pippa, thank you still on deck for the show, gauging the u.s. economy path forward. what top exports are saying for

potential for recession in 2023 d e prices that could fuel a d downturn we will be back after this

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." another look at delivering alpha survey bringing together investors and strategists and contributors we asked about the expectations for the economy in 2023. nearly half, 48%, say they

anticipate a soft landing. 39% say they expect a hard landing or an outright recession. 12% say they expect a return to some kind of growth. let's dive into this for 2023 with dana peterson at the conference board for survey. you gauge what people are feeling like in the economy. is there optimism for 2023 >> no, there isn't we have a call for recession a short and shallow recession in the u.s. that would be characterized by negative growth and consumer spending and cap x pulling back and weakness in housing. >> those are the things driving it, dana is there any scenario and everyone is expecting a recession to happen can cy

cyclicality. is there a reason to have a deeper recession or is a narrow path forward for a soft landing where we don't see the job losses and economic slowdown experienced with previous recessions in the past >> it is two sided certainly to the downside, inflation could be more stubborn food prices have been rising and haven't been giving up certainly stickiness with rents and people are going out and buying in-person services which keeps inflation higher which causes the fed to go longer and harder with interest rate tightening that could produce the hard landing. on the up side, consumer cost remain resilient consumers are spending out of savings and spending with their credit cards it's not clear how long that can long certainly if consumers don't think they will lose their jobs, they will continue to behave in the manner that is supportive of the soft landing scenario.

>> dana, we are showing viewerviewerer -- viewers and listeners on sirius radio that the trend is declining. is this peak already in? >> i think inflation peaked earlier this year. i know the year is almost over it is still very elevated. the things we have seen come off have sebeen prices for durable goods. we have seen those prices come off. the price of gasoline is a lot lower. we have seen that decline in gas prices help consumer sentiment inflation gauge at 6% or well above the 2% target. by the end of 2023, we will be close to peak inflation which is not 2%. >> dana, before we let you go,

what are your expectations of where the fed ends the interest rate hiking cycle? >> we expect two more interest rate hikes in the first quarter of this year and that should get us to the range of 4.75% to 5% that is below where they expect the fed fund rate. the fed will keep the rate there for the balance of this year and not consider interest rate cuts until early 2024 >> dana peterson with the outlook for the economy in 2023. thank you very much. happy new year. let's get a check of the top headlines with phillip mena in new york friday, almost new year, phillip. >> dom, good morning we begin with cities across ukraine plunged into darkness after russia rained missiles and

dr drones on targets. the mayor says 40% of kyiv lost electricity and local officials tell the ap that at least two people were killed around kha kharkiv. in a few hours, trump's tax returns are expected to be released after the years long legal battle the report found that the irs failed to do audits of the president. the report showed mr. trump paid little in taxes for years. including $750 in 2016 and 2017. and the titans kicking off the second to last week of the season and tennessee with injuries, they had to rely on their

back-up quarterback. the cowboys hand the tighttans e sixth straight loss. back to you. >> they are still in the hurricane h hunt for the afc south. phillip, this is the last time you will see me in a sweater back to suits next week. >> it was good to see the casual look happy new year still on deck, more on tesla's bad 2022 we talk to one who is bullish on ree stock and he says there is mo room to run in 2023 we'll be back after this

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bidding farewell to 2022 and good riddance. investors looking to leave a tough trading year behind. more losses on tap to close out for the year. and tesla investors looking to leave the worst year on record behind amid growing questions of what elon musk can do to right the ship thaand new details on sam bankman-fried and apparent sit-down with top white house officials months before the ftx collapse it is friday, december 30th, last trading day of the year you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.

welcome back i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan on this new year's eve eve. let's get to how the final trading day of 2022 is shaping up and futures dow implied lower by 95 points s&p down 13. this is coming after stocks rallied on thursday with the nasdaq surging 2.5% of the day all three indices with the worst fperfof perform am -- performance since 2008 according to dow jones industrial average market data, 19ing big name stocks with market caps of $30 billion or more in the s&p are headed for

the worst year on record the top three biggest losers, tesla has lost 2/3 of the stock in the year. meta down 65%. on fintech, paypal shed 62%. you round out the top five worst and it is charter communications down 48% edwards lifesciences down 42%. the five worst performing within the s&p. let's check on the top stories outside of the markets with silvana henao. dom, new details emerging about sam bankman-fried's ties to washington. according to bloomberg, sam bankman-fried met with biden administration officials four times this year. the report says sam bankman-fried met with the

advisers three of those times. the recent in september. the white house refused to say if biden would ask aides to return 2020 campaign contributions made by sam bankman-fried. the operator of the keystone pipeline says it is partially back online. they completed inspections and repairs on the pipeline in kansas the section was shutdown after the spill that dumped 14 thunde14,000 barrels of oil in waters. and u.s. alters ev tax credits. the program would require all vehicles assembled in north america to be qualified for the credits. new documents suggest some cars overseas could qualify for a separate ev program if they meet qualifications good news for ev buyers.

>> zsilvana, thank you let's stick with the ev trade and tesla. a turbulent ride down over 10% the last week. down 65% for the year. tesla is poised to finish the worst month and quarter and year on record. the company facing a wave of headaches from production issues and target cuts and cash burn and elon musk selling stock to fund the takeover of twitter for more on the road ahead, i'm joined by tim higgins from the wall street journal. he is the author of "power play." also george gianarikas he has a buy rating on the shares gentlemen, thank you for being here tim, we will start with you to set up the story 2022 saw a lot of shareholder

disruption for tesla it is more of the same for 2023 or can it find the bottom? >> it is hard to say it can go further down it has been a horrible season for tesla. when you look ahead to the year to 2023, there is market rumors of refresh to the model 3 and model y. the question could be where is interest rates are we in a recession? where is the buyer mind set? those are things that investors are worried about tesla going forward. twitter and elon musk with those distr distractions this is a growth story if that growth can continue, people will be excited >> george, this idea that that's is almost talked about in multiple circles now as more of a traditional type car company

suc secular issues similar to ford or gm. is tesla a mature auto company >> no. we value it relative to traditional growth stocks. large cap. apple or alphabet or meta or nvidia if you look to next year with the uncertainty with earnings and out to 2025, tesla is c compelling on a pe basis and in light of the growth. we think next year may be slower after this, this is a 50% growth company for years to come. it is compelling on metrics like pes and growth we are bullish on thing long term the near term sound bad. there have been data points in ev sales in the u.s. are weak and china and europe

they are weak everywhere we wrote a note that elon musk being on twitter spaces saying the same thing it is not that much of a surprise the stock is weak it is a surprise how weak it has been. >> george, if i can follow-up on that you speak of the valuation it should have relative to the other growth parts of the market apple trades at 21 teimes forwad earnings meta is 10 times forward earnings the whole growth sector is up ended the sector >> it hasn't been spared it has lumped into the stocks in the last quarter and year. if you look at the -- we don't cover the other growth stocks. we consider the estimates.

tesla's growth dwarfs those groups whether it is amazon or meta or nvidia, tesla is the fastest growth in that group that is where we get excited >> tim, this is a compelling story. if you wanted a blue chip in what you characterize, electric vehicles, tesla has to be it it is the biggest brand name there. what is to say a 2/3 decline in market value isn't enough for them to have a positive story in 2023 if so, the driving headlines will be what, tim, in the news headlines? >> the headlines driving that will be the return to massive sales growth that is what investors have been excited about over the last few years. the other thing we are for getting is the elon musk premium

in the stock if his attention turns back to the company, that will excite a certain segment of the market which is nervous over his distraction at twitter and buying into the stock with the hope and excitement for the vision of the future of the car he has been selling. >> george, i'll give the final word to you here if you look at it and we know you have a buy rating on the stock because you're bullish on it what could be the thing that puts a bear case scenario forward for you in to 2023 >> tim said the cyber truck coming in the second half of the year hopefully china rebounding and getting over covid issues. the u.s. then starting to get back on the strong footing based on inflation reduction act we will see that start to kick in in january. those for 2023. >> tesla has been the stock of

the year in 2022 we will see. tim higgins and george gianarikas, thank you. coming up on the show, bracing for sticker shocks residents in one state are about toace en fwh the new year kicks in that story when "worldwide exchange" is back after this your sleep number setting. to help relieve pressure points and keep you both comfortable all night. the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is only $899 - save $200. ends monday

>> announcer: today's big number 75%. that's how many americans will

spend less on new year's plans than last year according to wallet hub one in three are making financial related resolutions for 2023 who can blame them welcome back the new year will usher in price hikes for insurance for homes and cars in florida especially, businesses and homeowners are likely to get sticker shock when it comes to paying their premiums this time around. contessa brewer has more with that story contessa, why in florida particularly could customers see spiking prices i feel weather and hurricanes have something to do with it >> just part of that, of course, dom. louisiana and texas also get bad weather and hurricanes floridians pay the most in the nation nearly three times the national average according to the insurance information institute or iii

they are on track for 33% annual increases. the cost for insurance is so high in florida and it's so hard to get that the world's largest independent brokerage said it has killed $100 million real estate development deals florida has become a problem for state regulations which allowed lawsuits and fraud to soar and the monster storms, dom. lots of factors make it hard for insurers to turn a profit. more than a dozen have folded or fled the state two dozen in the regulator watch list apac says that setup lines the pocket of lawyers at the expense of consumers plaintiffs attorneys got three

quarters of what was shelled out. the legislature has come to the tat table and passed the law to tackle the tproblem. no more one-way fees it has banned the assignment of benefits where a homeowner signs over the right to make a claim to a roofing contractor who then, in turn, sues the insurer without the homeowner consent. the law creates a reinsurance fund of $1 billion chump change when you look at a storm like hurricane ian and the new law requires customers to get private flood insurance if they can do so at less than 20% more what citizens charges. citizens is the state-backed insurer of last resort iii calls it the strongest reform package ever passed in

florida, dom >> i spent a lot of time in florida, like you have we have viewers and listeners out there. is it enough to stabilize the market and encourage people to actually do business there >> that's going to take time the law is not retroactive the lawsuits filed over hurricane ian claims all still continue iii estimates it could tack $20 billion on to the insurance ko costs for ian. reinsurance renewals come in january. insurance for insurers f fitch says rates will rise around the world the big surprise here, or not really, doing business in florida for reinsurers is not all that attractive. the options for insurancers is limited and coverage is expensive. this will take time to work through the system

will it lure back those who already left or folded we wait and see. >> at this point, i guess the conversation is around how many insurers will want to do business in florida and this is a supply/demand thing. few eer insurers writing polici, how long will this last? >> the industry says it is more consumer friendly and more affordable if there are more options and competition. right now, there is not. i interviewed homeowner after homeowner and i talked to one of the world's biggest insurance brokerages who said when you go to find property insurance in florida, it is very hard to get the kind of coverage you need especially on high value properties at prices that make financial sense. that's why it has killed real estate deals

if you go in and looking at building $100 million development and 20% of the cost is going up in insurance, it doesn't make sense for the bottom line. >> florida is a massive boom with relocation with covid and now it is changing contessa brewer, thank you on deck for the show, we tee up the final trading day of 2022 and potential silver lining in the down year for the markets we had. be sure to tune in to the special "sttaking stock 2023 wih brian sullivan." that's 6:00 p.m. tonight eastern time keep it here we are right back after this break. >> announcer: lock in your membership now join jim cramer and the cnbc investing club with the year-end discount go to cnbc.com/clubnewyear or scan the code to sign up

even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds. why are 93% of sleep number sleepers satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can gently raise your partner's head to help relieve snoring. go to getrefunds.com to get started. so, you can both stay comfortable all night. the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is only $899. save $200. ends monday

'tis the season. you know what that is. that is a live shot of midtown manhattan, new york and times square not too long from now we will see a ball drop to ring in 2023. pretty empty right now of course, in the next day and a half we will see a massive crowd. welcome back to the show time for the wex wrap up six stories you missed as we come close to 6:00 a.m southwest will resume normal service today. the holiday meltdown will hit fourth quarter results. u.s. is considering steps to track covid variants as cases surge in china the cdc may test waste water from international flights. authorities in the bahamas have taken custody of $3.5 billion in ftx deposits. assets will be held until the

bahamas supreme court requires regulators to deliver them to cr creditors and customers. and the president biden avoid aid government shutdown by signing the spending bill passed by congress. and micro strategy disclosed the first ever sale of the cryptocurrency of bitcoin. and hershey's is being sued because of harmful lead and other heavy metals the man who filed the lawsuit said he would have not bought the product if they disclosed the heavy metals. and the s&p 500 is on the cusp of the rare 20% annual decline holding above that mark

entering the session this is the worst year since 1974 and 2002 and great recession and world war ii it has been up the following year 81% of the time with the average gain of 14%. let's talk more about the odds of history repeating in 2023 and bring in joseph fahmy. joe, great to have you here. this is the set up you want. if you are bullish, you want to see the markets decline and it provides an entry point. should we be fearful heading into 2023? >> that's a great point. as you mentioned, 2022 has been a difficult environment for most m market participants because of

the federal reserve that restrictive environment has made it difficult for stocks and risk assets in general as i mentioned throughout the year on this show, i'm not expecting sustained up side until the fed pauses the rate hiking cycle when would we expect that? i guess march for two reasons. number one, the current fed fund rate is 4% and the target is 5% to 5.25% roughly 50 or 75 rate hikes in the next two meetings in february and march then in march, it makes sense to pause and let's let the 500 basis points absorb in the financial system the second reason i would not be surprised to see a tradeable low is the last three markets bottomed in march.

'03 and global crisis in '09 and the coronavirus in march of 2 2020 that combined with the fed expecting to pause would make sense for a tradeable low in march of the upcoming year. >> convergence for the month of march. a lot of people are looking for the same thing joe, if that is the case, what is your favorite sector and part of the market with the discount valuations >> my favorite is bio-tech right now. for a couple of reasons. number one is it is showing relative strength. as the markets are approaching may and june lows, the main etfs and ibb are holding up very well also big pharma has big cash on hand they have been doing m&a a lot of trials were paused with

covid. you will see promising data com out. as far as the favorite sector as i mentioned for the second half of 2022 and continue to like bio-tech you play through as etfs i continue to like that through 2023 that is the way to play it without dealing with single stock risk >> a few seconds left, joe what do you think of tesla and meta and apple and others? >> i think they are in line with the markets. keep in line, they made big moves and will have overhead resistance i'm not favoring that. >> joe fahmy, thank you very much that does it for our "worldwide exchange. for myself and brian sullivan and the team with jay, evan, adam, michelle, kate and others in the group, we wish you a happy and healthy new year we will see you in 2023.

futures right now pointing to marginal losses at opening pbell "squawbo ik x"s coming up next we will see you in 2023.

good morning welcome to the final trading day of the year. stock futures pointing to a lower open we will show you what is moving. southwest airlines trying to resume a normal schedule today finally. we talk about the potential impact of the holiday fiasco on the company's fourth quarter. as covid surges in china, now looking to wastewater to

search for covid it's friday, december 30th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is off this is the last trading day of the year and if you look around us, there is not much happening in times square here in new york there will be tomorrow >> it is getting going we wering driving through 7th avenue and a lot of barriers i don't know what this truck is. the set up is coming >> no people yet there will be. this is the scene tomorrow if you are not here by this time tomorrow, you are not getting in here you will not get here unless you walk get ready to fin