interviews goldman sachs energy conference, i have to go to miami next week, twisted my arm we have chesapeake, pioneer, all coming up next week in miami we have the 6:00 p.m. show tonight with fertitta. oh, watch out! that's the way to end. watered down >> thank you for watching "power lunch", everybody. >> "closing bell," a soggy one, starts right now ♪ ♪ it is the final trading session of 2022, and a pretty fitting end as it happens. stocks close out a rough year with more losses this is the make-or-break hour for your money welcome to marvin gomez. i'm mike santoli in for sara eisen. here is where things stand in the market s&p down a little over 1% at the moment the dow slightly outperforming nasdaq small caps still pressured to the downside, underperforming on the day. the ten-year note yield is higher it could have something to do with equities being on their

back foot as well. here is the scorecard for the year on the major averages the s&p 500 has been bumping along that down 20% area, we are actually just under that right now. we will see how it actually closes out the dow has been a big out performer with a lot of the big defensive names as well as some energy on today's show we will talk to former spotify executive turned capitalist michael mignano about the technologies he is watching in 2023. plus, what is new year's without a countdown? all hour we are revealing the top five most searched tickers on cnbc.com this year. some of the names may surprise you. we will kick off with number five in a few minutes. first though, let's look at what the year has looked like in the s&p 500 chart. the 3,800 level, that's right where we are right now the low for the day, over every trading session in the last two weeks has been within 1% of

3,800 from every single day it seems as if we test or drop below 3,800. does it mean it is a support level? it is unclear. it is halfway between september throughout december trading range, it is exactly 300 points up to the high, 300 points down to the mid-october lows. so clearly not really getting any upside momentum. there hasn't been any break out. we haven't capitalized on the traditional late december seasonal strength but also holding in there a lot of the non-technology, nongrowth areas of the market, are kind of hanging in at the moment we will see what that sets up for next year, but bond market really if anything has been a bigger driver of what has gone on in equities than it has been for years this is the volatility of the treasury markets, the move index it is called it is essentially the vix of treasuries you will see it was stable down here when the fed was not in the game and bond yields were subdued. you had this surge and it was the source of a lot of unease in

equity markets along the way we are off the highs, the yields have settled a little bit and obviously the fed maybe has pulled into an area where it is done hiking for a while but it is above the, let's say, five-year range it typically existed. let's talk more about how bonds are looking for 2023 let's bring in bill campbell from double line capital he is a portfolio manager focusing on global bonds maybe talk in general. there's obviously a lot more yield than there was a year ago in the world is it worth while to try to capture it here or is it more risky? do you think yields could go higher still >> well, thank you for having me what a year it has been, especially in the bond markets as you mentioned, central banks have been the big story as they've been chasing inflation mostly throughout the year as, you know, inflation has really been the pace car for where yields have gone, which has been straight up. 2022 is now behind us and we are taking a look at 2023 at

doubleline and what we are seeing is a much more interesting bond market outlook as far as potential returns. we always start with the carry, and i think there is no question that the yields that we're getting at the beginning of 2023 are much more attractive than they've been for the better part of a decade. you know, the aggressive hiking that we've seen and the back up in yields across all international markets, you know, i think bonds are, you know, needing to be reconsidered as, you know, potential plays, both that not only hang out but even make some money in 2023. now, we think that near term, you know, markets, especially -- well, all markets, bond markets, equity markets, are going to remain volatile, and that's because the growth outlook is now challenged what we saw in november is

potentially what was the peak in cpi across developed markets, and, you know, globally, including international and emerging markets, you know, potentially we have seen the near-term peak in cpi, which may allow for a pivot of central banks in the near -- you know, over the course of 2023. but at least the stance of central banks going into this year or this coming year is much more aggressive and much more hawkish. we saw the ecb, you know, hike and announce their qt plans for, you know, the coming year starting in march. they're going to be looking for active reduction in the balance sheet by 15 billion, and that's on top of increased issuance so near term, really i think the pace setter of, you know, yields going higher over the past month actually has been coming out of europe >> yeah. >> now, if you take a step back and look out across the year as a whole, we do think that the

higher yield and the potential for banks eventually pivoting on slower growth and slower inflation is going to prevent -- is going to present an attractive outlook for investors, you know, not just in u.s. markets but looking at international markets and emerging markets, you know, as far as their bond allocations for 2023 >> you know, bill, you mentioned that inflation, should it continue to decline, would create the opportunity for the fed and essential banks to pivot to a more dovish stance, but are the markets correctly priced right now for the likely outcome? i ask because many people are focusing on the two-year treasury yield is above the fed range. that is typically implying that the fed was due to pause in other words maybe they're in danger of going too far. we have an investor survey, delivering alpha did, a plurality saying the fed should stop right now maybe it is not a plausible

option with cpi still at high levels, but do you think there's a risk they're overtightening already? >> oh, i think that, you know, that risk is front and center, and, you know, the biggest risk obviously is to growth central banks not only are raising interest rates but they're reducing their balance sheets and that's tightening global liquidity we are seeing m2 actually flat on a year over year basis when it has been positive for much of the past three decades all of this is a risk to growth, and it has been -- actually, i don't think in the u.s. we have seen a heightening fed into a falling, you know, growth outlook scenario when we take a look at the leading economic indicators, which puts together a lot of, you know, the economic indicators, you know, for the u.s. that's actually turned negative on a year-over-year basis. wef we look internationally, not only in the u.s. but across the globe, the majority of manufacturing pmis are below 50

or in contraction territory and most central banks are still on a hiking path. i think the bond markets are correctly interpreting this tightening of central bank policy to address high inflation is going to have a growth impact that's why we see yield curves inverted not only in the united states but, you know, in many developed and even emerging market countries with the ten-year below the two-year, suggesting that the central bank policy has gone, you know, a little too far and is risking a bigger growth correction, which, by the way, if you get a bigger growth correction that's not only going to help pull cpi lower, it is also going to help yields rally as well so on top of the attractive yield that you get, you can get a nice yield rally, you know, across bond markets. and then also one item to consider is when central banks pivot, you know, we have started to see a little bit of correction in the dollar, but currencies will likely rally against the dollar in the second half of the year, you know, on a

more aggressive central bank pivot that, you know, first -- in the beginning of the year if you're, you know, a little more aggressive investor, we do think interest rate -- i'm sorry, volatility is likely to stay -- challenge growth picture but the second half of the year i think there could be a second very interesting trade for international allocation, that if you are a long-term investor these are, you know, fairly attractive, you know, currency rates to get in at >> uh-huh. yeah for the first time in a while potentially, bill. i appreciate it. thanks a lot for running through all of that with us. happy new year >> happy new year. thank you, mike. >> all right appreciate it. most days on this show we give you a rundown of the top search tickers on cnbc.com today for the last trading day of 2022 we are counting down the top five most searched tickers of the year based on total page views. let's kick it off with number five it is amazon, and it was, of

course, an ugly year for that stock. amazon shed around half its value this year, pacing for its worst performance since the 2000 dot-com bubble ceo and ey jassy's first year o the job. are uniforms on the way to extinction a warning that some billion dollar startups are at risk of slipping below that benchmark. we will discuss with a top analyst next you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

welcome back on this final trading day of the year we are counting down the top five most searched tickers on cnbc.com this year. number five was amazon number four, the ten-year treasury yield which started the year below 2% but has been on a mostly upward path all year as the fed raised rates for first time since 2018, actually at historic pace as well. the yield peaked in october, about 4% mortgage rates have followed that move as well, touching the highest level since 2001 we will reveal number three on that list in just a bit. turning now to tech valuations, the "wall street journal" out with an article "some billion-dollar startups risk losing unicorn status." we asked venture capitalist alexis ohanian if he is experiencing a rough year in 2023 >> we have been telling founders since the start of this year to

plan for a scenario where, you know, they're encountering probably some of the hardest economic times, many of these as ceos built or grew businesses through, and to have at least multiple years of runways, this is with the early-stage companies. in any kay, to find paths toward profitability and to take the cues from the publicly traded tech companies that have really seen a new, sort of renewed appreciation for efficiency, for finding profit, and i think, look, the good news is these tougher times that i do think we will see ahead will help create much better companies. >> joining us michael mignano of light speed venture partners before joining light speed he was the head of talk for spotify. mike, i assume that sounds familiar to you as you go out and look for potential investments, talk to portfolio companies. has the environment changed the approach of what is going to

make a successful startup or maybe created a little bit maybe higher hurdle rate for when you expect companies to actually get to critical mass >> absolutely. thanks for having me, mike look, it is no secret that valuations at all stages are down, be it at the early stage the or growth stages but deals are getting done, especially when you take a long-term view which is what venture capital is all about. so venture is a long term business at lightspeed we take a ten-year view of companies we invest in whether you are investing in 2008 and 2016 or 2022, there's always a great opportunity for a really, really fantastic company. in fact, historically lots of our best investments have been made during the 2009 downturn when we invested in companies like mulesoft or app dynamics. so the space is still absolutely

ripe for creative founders and problem solvers right now and we are still bullish in every economic climate >> if you look at the way the public markets have behaved and the areas of this market that seemed like they had this very dramatic boom/bust cycle, whether it is some fintech or cloud software applications, things like that, that would send a message that says there was overinvestment in those areas, maybe the amount of capital thrown at his opportunities exceeded what could really be realized in the short term is that the case in the private markets as well? what areas do you think look still ripe and not yet overplayed >> i think all these areas, especially when you take a ten-year view, are still going to be attractive investment opportunities, like cloud computing or even consumer technology i think it comes back to like alexis said, that if you are a founder building in any of these spaces right now you need to be mindful of your core business and capital. whereas previously founders were maybe raising capital for, say,

18 months of runway, we think somewhere between two to three years of runway is more appropriate and, you know, we have actually been telling our companies this since last year and even before to prepare for this exact moment, because obviously market cycles like this are normal and they do happen but, look, i think in general we are looking for founders who can execute right now, who cannot simply white board, founders that can be lean and do a lot with a little. we know this is possible i know this is possible from personal experience. like you said, i ran the talk division of spotify before founding anchor, the world's biggest podcasting platform. we went from 0% market share to being the global market leader in three years with a team of less than 20 people and under $15 million capital in total raised so there are countless examples of companies in all sectors that change the world if they operate in a very, very lean way i think this next stage of tech investing is going to be the

same >> probably the area that's created the most recent excitement i suppose is ai applications everyone has been talking about the chatgpt and what it means and whether in fact this is a business or just kind of a trick and what potentially might be the threat to some established big companies. i know that you sort of play in that area. where is it headed most immediately from here? >> look, i think possibly it is the most exciting breakthrough in consumer technology since maybe the iphone if you look at the history of the internet over, say, the past 20, 30 years, one area in particular where we see a tremendous amount of opportunity through ai is in creativity. if you look at creativity online, there's massive, massive value created in the democratization of creativity. you can look no further than adobe's recent acquisition of figma for $20 million. ai allows anyone to be creative and that led us at lightspeed to

invest in stability ai they're the leading source for technology driven ai innovation and so we see a massive opportunity for unlocking more creativity on the internet >> that certainly would be welcome on a number of fronts. mike, i appreciate the time today. thanks so much good luck next year. >> thanks, mike. happy new year >> all right you as well. let's check the markets now. firmed up just a little bit in the last several minutes the s&p 500 is down about three-quarters of a percent at the moment the dow down just a bit less, and all of the indexes are sitting on losses of less than 1% natural gas prices are sinking again today. still tracking for gains on the year, but down sharply in the past few months. we will tell you what is behind the telast slide when "closing bell" comes back ys i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me.

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time to reveal the third top search ticker on cnbc.com in

2022 now, remember, amazon, number five the ten-year yield was number four number three, the dow jones industrial average it is by far the best performer of the major equity averages, down less than 10% for the year. the s&p for its part on track to be down close to 20% for the year the nasdaq will likely close more than 30%lower the top winners on the year in the dow are chevron, merck and travelers while the biggest decliners, intel, salesforce and walt disney. we will reveal the runner-up on this list in a moment. let's turn to energy which will close out as the only positive sector this year. natural gas is also higher for 2022, but it has taken a downturn lately. it is lower again today. pippa stevens is here to explain exactly why the whipsaw action in natural gas >> hey, michael. it is closing out the year not with a bang but a william per, falling to the lowest level since march today with weather

driving much of the declines last week's cold snap is proving to be short lived and forecasts are calling for a warmer than expected january which will cut demand for gas heating we have seen record injections into storage in recent weeks, meaning that inventory is around the five-year average for this time of year freeport's lng texas facility restart has also been pushed back yet again to the second half of january, and it now has been off line since june finally, recession fears and what that means for industrial and commercial gas demand also playing a part in this recent weakness now, nat gas has lost a third of its value this quarter and it is currently trading around 443 per mnbtu, a far cry from the more than $10 it touched in august but still in the green for the year, gaining 20%. that's helped lift the s&p energy sector which in addition to being the sole group in the green for 2022 is also posting its best year ever, mike a lot of volatility really across the entire energy space

this year. >> without a doubt of course, natural gas famously is an extreme version of that in general. where does it leave us with regard to, you know, a lot of the stories coming in to the winter about what europe would be facing? you mentioned lng, one of those plants being maybe off line for a little while, reducing demand for henry hub gas, but are we in decent shape for the winter at this point >> well, we are right now with inventory levels back around their five-year average, but so much of this has really just depended on the weather and that's honestly kind of what saved europe this fall, is they had much warmer than forecast temperatures so their current facilities were able to keep up with demand and they were able to send some gas into storage, and so they have healthy levels over there as well but going forward it is really anybody's guess about what happens since this market is so precarious we have the price cap on russian gas going into effect next year, and so there's still a lot of variables and with the market so

much driven by weather we could see things whipsaw based on the coming temperatures. >> yeah. so got lucky for now hopefully it lasts we will see, pippa thank you very much. president biden this week signing the $1.7 trillion spending bill into law, which includes a ban of tiktok on most government devices we'll discuss what the crackdown means for other social media companies. that is next

welcome back to "closing bell." time to reveal the second most-searched ticker on the year on cnbc. to recap, amazon, the ten-year treasury yield and the dow made the list number two is apple. like many names in the tech space it is on pace for its worst year since 2008, currently tra trading roughly 30% below its high, though it held up better than the rest of the faang stocks 74% of the analysts still have a buy rating in the stocks on s&p 500. the pressure on tiktok heating up after president biden signed a spending bill that includes a ban of the chinese app on federal devices. could a national ban of tiktok become a reality next year

joining us from mkm partners to talk about it, i know that one of your prediction s for the yer was tiktok likely would be banned do you think it might take the form of an outright ban on the app or would they force a sale of the company what does it mean for other social media companies do you think? >> again, look, thanks for having me, mike. rohit kulkarni i think it would be unpacking several layers if it were to go that way i think they probably would need to go through a series of data scrutinies, data investigations around how they're storing data, some would have to go back and forth between u.s. government agencies and how they are using the data i feel just the overall pressure on kind of privacy and what tiktok remains as a black box,

will remain the fact whether it just gets banned or not helps with the sentiment on social media names, the u.s.-based social media names, facebook and snap in particular so whether it actually gets banned, just the early signs of the news getting around tiktok would probably help with the sentiment and a little bit of engagement finally, with regards to revenues it still will be long ways away, but sentiment and engagement should strive stock price for both of those companies in the near term, that's face points now >> got it. more broadly, when it comes to some of the larger internet stocks for example there's a lot to pick from if you are opportunistic. amazon is cut in half, meta trading at the cheapest valuations ever. what looks particularly attractive for next year >> i like amazon the most in the mega cap land and i like uber in the other large cap internet

land amazon i feel there's still a downside with regards toest mam estimates so the stock will be range bound in the first days of 2023 beyond that, once we are at the point where we see leverage flowing through the model, amazon stock back and some of the employees back in march of 2022, so they have already anticipated cost cutting for almost nine months so come march of '23 we should start seeing leverage even in soft revenue days and months and quarters i like amazon here i think as we go into the recession the markets that they operate in, advertising, commerce and cloud, they can gain market share and that's why we feel amazon is absolutely no brainer if you are looking beyond, say, june of '23 >> uh-huh. and for uber, i mean i guess there's probably a cyclical aspect to it, but that's not maybe the main driver. why do you think the company

finally will be able to persuade investors the business model is clicking here? because that has been a question >> i think uber when you look back in '22, they're not getting the credit they deserve. i would put it that way. when we look at -- look across all of the large caps, across indirect, i think uber is one company that has had very consistent upside to street estimates. they have consistently beaten estimates all the while small margin, some are inorganic, some could be organic, but they have continued to grind higher and higher through what we saw through the covid drop so i think as we get into the next year, they have some organic growth drivers they are going to be generating a lot of cash. so it is a show-me story and the valuation remains cheap so long as the numbers remain stable and the shorter leverage and they have a variable cost structure so they can adjust very, very quickly in a nimble fashion. so i like uber here. it is a show-me story.

very cheap valuation, cash flow coming on the horizon, and they should get the credit they deserve. >> all right cash flow has been on the horizon for a while. it seems like maybe it is closer we will see if it can get there. rohit, thanks so much. i appreciate the time. >> thanks, mike. happy new year. >> happy new year. here is where we stand in the markets. the market continues to narrow with losses just a bit s&p 500 down two-thirds of 1%. it is just above the minus 20% level on the year-to-date basis at this point. see how it finish. still to come, disney is on pace for its worst year since the ford administration. we will take a look at what went wrong and what to expect in 2023 plus, we will reveal the number one top search ticker of the year on cnbc.com when "closing bell" comes back. namicg and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market

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we have a develop mment on t story. sam bankman-fried is likely to enter a not guilty plea at his hearing next week. he was charged earlier this month with eight counts of financial fraud with the u.s. attorney's office for the southern district of new york calling it one of the biggest financial frauds in history. and now it is the moment you have been waiting for all hour if not all year. we have been counting down the top search tickers in 2022 on cnbc.com so far we covered amazon, the ten-year treasury year, the dow and apple. i guess we need a drum roll for the most searched name of the year it is tesla. no surprise really given the retail interest, the barrage of headlines surrounding stock and ceo elon musk. tesla is on pace for its worst year ever as a public company.

it is underperforming other automakers like ford and gm. sharpest downturn in the stock happened around the time elon musk said he would buy twitter and sold tesla shares to fund the acquisition. you see it lost two-thirds of its value over the course of 2022 after the break, the final minutes of trading before we put 2022 in the books when we take you inside the market zone

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moments of the game. plus, deirdre bosa on chinese tech going out with a whimper. julia boorstin on disney's dismal year. let's start with the markets we have a little bit more of a bid entering the s&p 500 nothing too dramatic but we were down 1.2% at the lows, about half that loss at the moment charlie, as we survey what was accomplished i guess you could say this year in terms of, you know, wringing out valuation excesses, trying to absorb what the fed had to do, navigating the peak in inflation, where does it leave you with regard to where the market is positioned entering next year >> if the good news is we burst two out of the three bubbles we burst interest rates, the ten-year treasury at 162, made no sense bonds were at a bubble level growth stocks were at bubble levels at the beginning of the year you could actually argue we burst three out of four because we burst the crypto bubble as well bubbles are dangerous things, and when they exist people can

lose a lot of money. unfortunately, they did but we were able to take those risks off the risk out there is china res de residential real estate. it is still overvalued although prices have come down, they have not come down enough on the positive side we have gotten rid of excesses one thing i missed was i didn't think the fed would come out and try to cause a recession, and the market clearly thinks they are and that has been tough on cyclical stocks. >> right, it absolutely has. that is the big call, whether in fact cyclicals have priced in that kind of a downturn. we will get to that. first, micron falling today after argus research downgraded the stock from a hold to a buy the firm warning of losses ahead as weak demand for chips persists the rest of the space under

pressure as more tech broadly sells off. chri chri kristina partsinevelos joins us. why is it? we know we drove up demand, we bought electronics in 2020 demand is down tie it with inflation and you are left with piling inventory levels which is why customers are telling companies like micron, hey, i don't want to use your chips right now, i don't need to do business with you right now, i'm going to write off the inventory and hold off for a bit. that's part of the disconnect. plus the chips have dropped 20% quarter over kwoquarter over quarter and it will continue to hit over next year three actions they are taking. one, they want to cut capex meaning they will lower spending for wafer fab equipment 20% next

year so that will affect other chip makers the second thing is cutting salary, possible lay-offs. a lot of companies talked about that the third which is most interesting within the tech world is micron is looking at slowing down their tech node transitions and that's not something you necessarily want to see within technology, the slowdown and naeinnovation, especially when you are dealing with a commoditized product. >> i guess micron, charlie, recently emerged from the pure commod commodity status as a producer of memory chips. it is a stock where it is down by half over the course of this year it looked cheap at the highs because earnings estimates were overinflated the earnings estimates have been cut back it looks cosmetically cheap. where would it bring you in terms of assessing whether there's true value here? >> one of the things i will try to emphasize in 2023 is that

there are really good industries and bad industries you can make money trading in a bad industry with bad economics, but long term you can't. the semiconductor industry is not good industry. it is highly capital intensive there's lots of technological ob companies try to produce their own because they think it is important to the country you get way too much capital coming in in a cyclical fashion. you tens of billions of dollars coming into the industry, producing supply at exactly the wrong time >> kristina, i mean our government falls into that category with the chips act. we have this industry-wide investment cycle going on with reshoring. i suppose that's going to create kind of winners and losers and who knows what it means for ultimately capacity down the road >> it means a completely fragmented market, even more so than it is now

and what about the focus on are we in the united states going to focus on advanced nodes? we have tsmc opening a plant here but, no, they're not going to create the most advanced chips in the united states so there will be a divergence in terms of supply between the most advanced advanced nodes and the lower lagging nodes often used in autos and that will be an issue. but you just said it everybody around the world is investing money. it will take years before we see another supply issue down the line with chips. >> interesting little moment for the industry, if nothing else, kristina, thank you. online brokerages futu and up fintech plummeting after chinese regulators accused them of allowing cross border trades. those banned from signing up new customers from mainland china. let's get to deirdre bosa. what does it tell us about beijing's crack down, and if you could tell us whether it is up

or u.p.. >> actually, i'm not sure. what does it tell us about the regulatory crackdown it is not over there may be green chutes coming from china over the loosening of the policies remember, it is now the online brokerages they're going after up fin ttech as i will call it, now just over $500 million both issued statements saying surprise, surprise, like every company does, they will comply with regulators of fintech so 90% of their new clients come from outside mainland china anyways. the point, mike, is that the opportunity is in the chinese markets and beijing is very protective of course, they don't want any one company having too much control, too much data, especially when it comes to financial services we saw what happened a few years ago when ant financial, so in a way it shouldn't come as too much of a surprise however, zoom out a little bit,

take a look at how chinese stocks have done or adrs have done this year it has actually performed the nasdaq by a wide margin, only down 17% versus the nasdaq down more than 30%. however, take a longer view, take two, two and a half years and the kweb has been the riskier and lower return bet >> yes, absolutely it is kind of coming out of a much deeper hole than the u.s. tech stocks were in. i guess, charlie, you were talking about sort of the chinese property bubble potentially being a risk out there. this is another reminder that the chinese authorities seem not to want the public markets to really flourish in some sense. they don't want a lot of power built of either foreign investors throwing capital into their companies or their own investors participating very much. >> i hate to be too long-term focused but this is not what are seeing

xi is not the capitalist that his presd decessor was he is very suspicious even of chinese stock ownership and well generation the chinese government has taken lots of anti-corporate steps in the last couple of years and frankly over the last five or six years and that doesn't even mention the structural problems when a lot of u.s. investors buy chinese struck they're investing in the vie structure where you don't legally own the stock at all. you own something that owns something that owns shares in a chinese company. as you can tell, i hate to be gloomy in the first two ideas that have come up but i don't believe in this sector for the regulatory reasons >> it is a tough thing to get around thank you very much. i appreciate it. check out disney though, heading for its worst year since 1974 put that into context, in 1974 disney world's gates had only been open a few years and a one-day ticket would run you

just $5.25 the stock is also on track for its seventh straight quarter in the red, its longest losing streak ever. let's bring in julia boorstin. julia, this, of course, comes off a time when the market loved disney during the pandemic because of what was happening on streaming and the fact that, you know, the theme parks were going to roar back with the reopening. what are the key challenges and opportunities that are ahead right now? >> well, certainly have to say it is a very different landscape for bob iger running the company now than when he was running the company last time around certainly in terms of the broader media landscape, so many challenges in terms of a contracting ad market, questions about streaming subscribers, whether or not we will see slowing growth amid growing competition, and subscribers wanting not to pay for so many services, although i think disney has an advantage because it does have that kids' content that so many parents can't live without. but this question of whether consumers will be switching over to the ad-supported version, which is something that they did just recently launch so these broader questions about

the streaming landscape bus ad revenue, but, of course, don't forget about cord cutting and the paid tv business that's all different pressures on the company i would say the opportunities are in the choices that bob iger has to make. he has some choices maybe about espn and abc, wells fargo s speculating last week these are assets he would consider spinning off i think it is less likely, but he has an interesting choice to make around hulu that is currently owned by cnbc's parent company, comcast just what to do about that remember, when it comes to the brands, disney has the iconic brands, the ones still performing at the box office and getting people to sign up for the subscription services. it is a company that could benefit from the direct-to-consumer relationship that they built. >> right there's no doubt most of irts competitors would covert the ip

reece so resources. you mentioned the streaming idea that is less likely. to me it doesn't make a lot of sense at this moment it is hard to know what the market would reward in that environment. also, espn still produces cash flow it is still something that is an earning asset and they have experienced shrinking the broadcast network over many years at this point, if it needs to be shrunk on a cost basis >> they have plenty of experience with that i think there's a question at what point do they move some of the sports rights over to the streaming app. i think just to take a step back and also talk about the parks which is something i have not mentioned, obviously there are concerns about consumer spending, but the parks have been incredibly robust these are assets that have been incredibly robust during other economic downturns and there is a sense that this is something bob iger understands are really a crown jewel and an opportunity to keep consume rs cors connectt the brand. think down the line you are targeting those who come to your

park with a different experience, and using the parks plus disney plus to get the direct-to-consumer relationship stronger and whether it is on taking a trip to the theme park or buying movies to download, so i think figuring out how to exploit the relationships. >> absolutely, franchises and cross selling. charlie, is this a stock that it makes sense to look at, being so beat up and having the brand franchise that probably will carry it through >> yes full disclosure, our co-ceo is married to george lucas, so take what i have to say with a grain of salt here this is a package of intellectual property that is unrivalled marvel, mickey mouse, minnie mouse, it is an incredible library of ip. the problem is people don't know the business model, don't know the profitability of the business model but they're the best positioned company in this media space. the market is very binary on

disney there are times in which the market absolutely loves disney and there are times when the market hates disney and right now is the latter. i think this stock looks very washed up. >> yeah, it certainly is an interesting debate if nothing else charlie, broughtly on the markets, look, you are a value investor value has led by a lot this year you did see growth deflate looking into next year, the call on cyclical stocks, is it time for them yet >> they're certainly out of favor and that's what we look for, is what is trading at a discount to intrinsic value and right now it is the cyclical names. frankly, energy companies are very cheap, fertilizer companies are trading at five times earnings then we have a great auto supplier well positioned in electrical vehicles trading for eight times earnings the market thinks there will be a recession. when it happens earnings will come down, but in the long term i think we have a coiled spring in a lot of demand for autos and

housing and demand for food around the world when we do, i think the cyclicals are very attractive right now. >> do you think we are in for several months where people even if we don't get a recession people will be refusing to participate or refusing to touch these? >> i don't want to pretend i can call the short term. >> sure. >> i will say i think it will be volatile these cyclical stocks will be volatile i think the fed wants to bring on, if not a recession certainly a downturn in the labor market the fed wants to cause a recession, they can. they took up the money supply by almost 40% and now they're taking it down, which is very dangerous. they haven't gone a lot of periods in which the fed has shrunk the money supply. they have since february, and that absolutely will cause a recession if they keep it up >> pretty unique in this cycle charlie, appreciate it happy new year >> thank you take a look into the market into the close it has narrowed the losses s&p down one-third of 1% it was down more than 1% an hour or so ago. dow down 100

s&p poised to close for the year down less than 20% on a total return basis with dividends around 18% right now the volatility index finishing the year under 22. relatively subdued that's because we have been range bound in this market really for seven months. that's when we first got down toward the 3,800 market in may that is going to do it for "closing bell. turning it into "overtime" with scott wapner >> thank you very much welcome to "over time. i'm scott wapner you heard the bells. we are getting started for the close of the stock exchange. in a bit i will speak to cameron dah some of newedge wealth who has been on the right side of the market all year long i will ask her what is likely to happen as we welcome in 2023 that is the "talk of the tape. one of the worst performances on record of stocks, where do we go from here? let's ask someone who watched and navigated fo