it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global h5eadquarters. here is the top "five@5. tesla coming up short when it comes to 2022 deliveries this is the company reportedly names a new number two behind elon musk. sam bankman-fried back in court today. expected to respond if criminal charges of cheating investors out of billions of dollars. plus, apple reportedly slowing down production of key devices as demand falls short of

estimates. after a rough 2022 and look of the turning of the tide it is tuesday, january 3, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm frank holland in for brian sullivan happy new year let's kickoff the new year and first day of trading with the stock futures. you can see they are solidly in the green across the board right now at this point and it is so early. the first day of the trading year the dow could open up 300 points higher this follows the rough 2022 for u.s. equity investors. for the year, the dow fell 9%. snapping a three-year win streak you see the s&p here

ending a three y-year win streak nasdaq down. all three coming off the worst year since 2008. the great recession. it is not all doom and gloom a snapshot of the dow and s&p, they are coming off strong q4. dow up 15% also, you see the s&p up as well up 7%. both snapping a three-quarter losing streak. maybe momentum for 2023. let's check the bond market. a key factor in 2022 the 10-year treasury at 3.73 2-year treasury at 4.34. we are still seeing the inverted yield curve. something to watch as the recession indicator. 10-year treasury starting the year at the level it ended looking at energy. oil coming off the gain in 2022. second positive year in a row. this year, wti crude at $80 a

barrel this morning. when it comes to commodities, oil has nothing on lumber. down 67% last year steep decline. lumber tied to the real estate market worst record since 1979. and then sam bankman-fried's hearing coming up today and we look at crypto looking at it across the board mixed picture. bitcoin still below the key 17,000 mark. that was the key metric and level for the bitcoin last year. up f up let's see if things are better overseas with arabile gumede who is standing by in the london newsroom. great to see you, arabile. happy new year >> happy new year, frank a positive start to the new year with the european market front

ftse 100 back for the first day and the others with positivity the pmi numbers seem to point to the worst being over particularly on the european manufacturing front. perhaps things beginning to tick higher so the market is taking in positivity. you can tell the market out in the uk is up 2%. positive start to 2023 we are expecting inflation comes from germany and france and italy later this week. that could possibly send a clear message as how things are faring particularly on inflation front and what it means for the european central bank. of course, interest rates are the factor for the year as well as the fed minutes which is important for the market what message and sentiment will that send? you can tell with green across the board and uk manufacturing number, pim nmi number, with a s

of negativity, but improving and it points to the worst being over frank. >> arabile, thank you. turning attention back to the markets stateside. let's face it, we had an ugly 2022 investors are not out of the woods yet. the s&p has fallen in each of last three januarys and six of the last nine. according to that so-called january barometer as january goes, so does the year here is the bonus fact it is not random, but it is interesting. 2022 is the first time the january barometer worked with the s&p falling 5% before ending the year down 20%. let's talk more about this with robert teeter. head of the group at silvercrest. happy new year, robert >> happy new year. thanks for having me on. >> strongly in the green share your outlook for 2023?

do you see major themes shaping up >> i think the first theme is one you touched on earlier with the fourth quarter we are building on success of getting flags under control. having bond interest rates more stable that provided a cushion for valuation. as we look forward to the new year, that is one theme to draw on the other is the collision we see with some of the factors that have been bad, but improving such as inflation and interest rates and others weakening is the economy and earnings we will see modest gains and driven by earnings. >> you see modest gains for the year and modest improvement with inflation. are we out the woods >> i think we are trending in the right direction. when you hear chair powell talk about inflation in three categories, goods is improvimprg housing and shelter is lagging

it will take a while to flow through to the cpi of shelter. services is a question mark. the fed says this may be sticky. that is possible we had a lot of pent-up service demand we are headed in the right direction. cpi is trending down most indications are trending down we are headed in the right direction. >> inflation is the big story of 2022 the other story is valuiation. where do you see earnings going into the new year? >> i think earnings next year will be in a tight band in a flat with a lot of noise that disconnection with goods and services will show outcomes with revenue gains labor costs will have an impact across sectors a lot of noise beneath the

surface. >> that's an interesting take, robert you believe there are six themes to shape the market. we hit on two of them. inflation and earnings is there another one that is crucial for 2023 and especially the first quarter? >> scertainly the geopolitical situation has been the challenging in 2022. that is a wild card. things seemed to have stabilized in the back half of 2022 if that continues, this should help alleviate pressure. that is unpredictable. >> robert teeter, we appreciate your insight looking forward to it. thank you. >> thank you. let's get to the big money mover and big news with tesla after getting clobbered last year falling 66% our pippa stevens is here. >> frank, good morning shares of tesla down another 3.5% this morning after the company said it sold 1.3 million

vehicles last year production up 47% compared to a year ago that falls short of the elon musk expectation after saying they would grow 50% last year and every year tesla says it delivered 405,000 vehicles in the final three months of the year analysts were expecting a number closer to 427,000. sticking with that's, the chief tom zhu is overseeing sales in every market, including the u.s. and europe the move makes zhu the highest executive at tesla second to elon musk. also what could be a sign for tesla shareholders, south korea says it is fining the company $2.2 million for allegedly exaggerating the driving range

of evs in low temperatures that range could fall by 50% when exposed to cold weather and, frank, the stock coming off the worst year in record. >> you will have a look at the commodity which is a key factor for tesla. lithium. pippa, thank you when we come back on "worldwide exchange," what to expect when sam bankman-fried heads to court today. and bracing for another wild ride. and a bills player collapsed during the opening minutes of last night's football game a veryusy ur bho still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." oil prices are steady at $81 a barrel for wti despite the weaker factory data for china. a warning from the head of the imf for the tough year ahead for the economy. wti ended up 7% in 2022 and brent finished up 10%. both well off the highs for the year

let's talk about where oil may be headed in 2023 with jorge leon jorge, happy new year. >> frank, happy new year >> jorge, what is the base case for oil in 2023? where do you see the high or low? dip into your crystal ball and give us an outlook. >> that is a difficult one i can share insights for 2023, the base case average is $93 a barrel. that doesn't say much. we think there will be a lot of bumpy road for this year in particular, the next few months, the first few months of the year, we see downside pressure and prices which is factors with the global economic recession and central bank trying to fight inflation and chinese exiting covid policy will have a downside effect on

prices if you fast forward a few months, on the second half of 2023, the factors are actually positive we see upside pressure on prices and as the economy resumes growth and as china opens up to the world again. we see upside pressure on prices again, uncertainty is the word here for the year. there is significant upside uncertainty and downside uncertainty going forward. >> jorge, we showed a great graphic. show it again. the big themes for the oil market in 2022 china covid policy remaining closed opec cuts and the russia/ukraine war. is there one theme for 2023 that investors should watch the closest? >> i think there is a lot of things that we should watch out. i think if i look back at 2022

and something, if history is telling us something, three things that will keep us a hint for 2023 the first is despite sanctions from russia which is the top third producer in oil and despite opec plus cutting barrels per day and the shared production in 2022, oil prices were lower last year from where they started the beginning of 2022 that was surprising. i think it is quite remarkable that in an environment of $100 per barrel, oil price last year, demand grew by 2.4 million barrels. that is massive growth you would not expect that at $100 per barrel. this is because central banks and governments around the world start cutting taxes and adding fuel subsidies to fuels. finally, one thing that is

relevant for 2022 is that opec plus seems to be back in the driving seat share production was meant to be the swing producer meant to produce the marginal barrel in reality, it is opec plus in the driving seat. >> jorge, one last question for you. u.s. focus question. where do you see gas prices in 2023 right now we are a few cents lower for regular unleaded than a year ago >> so, i really think that it very much depends on what happens with the sanctions on russia eu sanctions on product to start the fifth of february and depends on the reaction of russia if n that sense my hunch is upside pressure. >> we appreciate that. jorge leon thank you. >> happy new year. still on deck on "worldwide

exchange," after a rough 2022, a possible turning of the tide when it comes to buying or investing in real estate in the new year stay with us more "worldwide exchange" coming up >> announcer: today's big number $750 billion that's the projected annual revenue for the global fintech industry by 2030 according to ubs as penetration reaches the mid teens.

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welcome back the crypto mogul sam bankman-fried is due back in the new york city courtroom to answer questions of fraud. arjun kharpal is joining us from the london newsroom. >> happy new year. not a great start for sam bankman-fried to 2023. he appears in the new york court and expected to be pleading not guilty a couple of reasons, perhaps, for that one is buying time for the legal team to suss out the legal defenses on the charges against him. the second is this could kickoff discovery process in terms of

the legal proceedings which could allow him and his legal team to know what evidence the federal government has against him. to recap, sbf has been charged with securities and wire fraud and eight counts extradited from the bahamas to the u.s. he is living with his parents. there is a twist on the story when two close allies pleaded guilty to a number of criminal counts that is caroline ellison alameda ceo and gary wang, the ftx co-founder they agreed to cooperate in the investigation of sam bankman-fried. a lot on the line today and going forward for sbf. he is found quilguilty, he could face prison time >> serious charges i want to go back to the former

colleagues testifying against him. where do we stand when it comes to the investigation >> we know there has been, as i mentioned, eight criminal counts charged against him. these are allegations at this point. some of the allegations include the fact that ftx misap misappropriated customer funds between ftx and alameda. some of the funds were used to fund political campaigns at this moment, clearly prosecutors feel they have some evidence against sbf. it will depend how he pleads today, not guilty or guilty. that could kickoff discovery which may reveal what information prosecutors have on ftx at this point as well. i think the inclusion and cooperation of two close allies

two cofounders if the allegations are true, they are likely to know and be privy to the decision making behind the scenes as well and what was going on. that could be critical as the case goes forward and as the doj builds the case. >> the legal situation has changed. back in early december when andrew ross sorkin spoke to sam bankman-fried, he claimed he was working to recover the money for people negatively impacted by the scandal. any update on that any word on what he has done or allegedly done to help people get their money back >> we know the bahamian authorities seized funds for safekeeping. they felt they could be subject to tax that is one aspect we know some ftx customers in japan have been able to withdraw

some of the funds from ftx as in terms of recovering huge amount of funds, it hasn't been steps taken yet. we know the third in charge of the process of getting customer funds back is making progress. there has not been huge steps taken yet. that will take time. clearly, investors will be looking at the case. >> a lot of questions. we hope to get answers today arjun, thank you happy new year >> happy new year. let's get a check of the other headlines and the situation with the player collapsing during the nfl game nbc's frances rivera is in new york >> happy new year, frank good morning we start with the heavy headlines. details on buffalo bills player damar hamlin the team said hamlin is in critical conditions after collapsing on the field following a tackle against the cincinnati bengals the bills adding that hamlin

suffered cardiac arrest and heart beat restored on the field. cpr was administered for several minutes before lifted into the ambulance. there is support from players around the league as you can imagine. josh allen wrote pray for our brother. coaches met on the field before bringing players to the locker room the game was suspended shortly after. jeremy renner in the reno hospital he was injured in the new year's day snow plow accident renner was trying to clear the road after the storm when the plow rolled over his leg now the heavy storms plaguing the south triggering tornado watching in arkansas a twister hit the high school and damaging buildings around the school there were no injuries reported.

authorities say the national weather service will confirm if it was in fact a tornado for tuesday morning, frank, those are the headlines. back to you. >> frances rivera, thank you very much. as we head to break on "worldwide exchange," check out cineworld owns res regal cinema. it is looking at chapter 11 reorganization to maximize shares. and one more thing, if you miss us, check us out on spotify or other podcast apps. "worldwide exchange" will be right back and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world.

kicking off the trading year the investors looking for a fresh start after stocks suffered the worst year since the financial crisis futures pointing to a higher open. washington gearing up to get back to work lawmakers returning to the hill today as president biden faces a divided congress and pushing his agenda forward the items investors need to watch out of d.c. apple reportedly scaling back as it faces demand concerns it is tuesday, january 3rd, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc

welcome back to cnbc i'm frank holland in for brian sullivan happy new year 5:30 a.m. on east coast. let's get to the markets for the first trading day of the new year futures for this new year are starting off in the green. all three indices up 1%. lower or higher. the dow could open up 250 points higher at the open remember, it is early. we are coming off the rough 2022 for u.s. stocks. dow shedding 9%. snapping a three-year win streak s&p down almost 20% for the year nasdaq, hardest hit, down 33% for the year all three coming off their first down year in the last three. hopefully a lot of people are expecting a much better 2023 looking ahead. let's look at the markets on the first trading day as we continue to look with the dow and s&p were not that hard hit when it comes to q4. dow finishing up 15%

s&p finishing up 7%. nasdaq was the laggard finishing down 1% for the quarter. i want to look at the bond market it has a big impact. 10-year treasury at 3.47%. the inverted yield curve recession indicator. something we have been talking about for months we want to get one look at the energy space wti crude is slightly lower. down $79 a barrel. something to watch let's get a check on the top stories with pippa stevens good morning, pippa. good morning, frank. i'm back there are more headaches for airline travelers. faa says the problem with the critical air traffic control system that caused delays at airports in florida yesterday has been fixed american airlines tweeting in the day that the issue

originated at the miami control center and was impacting all carriers this comes days after southwest res resumed normal operations following the christmas week schedule meltdown. apple is recoreportedly cutg orders the tech giant is lowering orders due to weakening demand the air pods and apple watches and macbooks are the most likely impacted products. and crypto spilling over into the public. winklevoss taking to twitter to accuse barry silbert which owns genesis of bad faith tactics that are hurting customers genesis is a lending partner of

gemini program which lets users lending out the crypto space they halted loan originations in november amid the collapse of ftx. winklevoss claims it $900 million gemini was sued over locked money in the program frank. pippa, thank you very much turning to the housing market. 2022 was a tough year for the housing market especially with mortgage rates rates higher from where they were a year ago creating hurdles for buyers and sellers diana olick is here now with what it means for the sector's year ahead in 2023 happy new year >> good morning, frank after a brief reprieve in november and december, mortgage rates on the high note the rates swung lower from 7.25% to 6.25% for 30-year

by new year's eve, it was over 6.5% prices have fallen since june. for the buyer of a median priced home, the mortgage translates into $2,100 without taxes and insurance which is a 63% increase from the same time a year ago that is according to realtor.com whose chief economist says the rates will go over 7% this year and end at 7.5%. on the bright side, there is much more supply 47% more than a year ago at the end of november. still slightly below the historical average it is translating into a less competitive market homes taking 56 days to sell 15% longer than a year ago prices have been coming down month to month at a rapid pace and the comparison close to 10% higher is half of what it was in june remember, prices are incredible

39% higher than they were at the start of the pandemic. looking ahead, of course, it is much about the fed which along with everyone else, is looking toward the all-important jobs report friday. it will be about demand. where is the line for home buyers to jump back in they are used to the pricey housing market now more used to a pricey mortgage market. frank. >> the way the rates jumped up my question for you is what does it mean for the so-called spring selling season we had disruption from covid and the prices will we see the return to the selling season >> that depends on the fed and mortgage rates we are going into january which is the slowest season. presidents day weekend is the kickoff in february to the spring season. we have will see where rates are again.

having the extra inventory and added homes for people to not feel pushed to jump at the first thing they see and competing in bidding wars that may help especially if new inventory comes on the market. prices and inventory and mortgage rates. >> diana, a lot of people are crossing their fingers that rates go down. i don't know if it will happen diana olick, thank you keeping our eyes on washington as congress prepares to return to capitol hill to kickoff the year with fireworks. republicans are taking control of the house and kevin mccarthy is looking for votes to become the next speaker they have the 2024 presidential race set to gain momentum. for more on d.c.'s year ahead, let's bring in jimmy pethokoukis. he is our cnbc contributor

jimmy, happy new year. >> happy new year, frank. >> we laid out a lot of stuff for d.c. and the new youear. what will happen for d.c. and white house and congress >> i think it has to be the debt limit. whether they raise that debt ceiling. it is the perfect mix of factors for that to go wrong we have narrow majority in the senate and house obviously, we have republicans controlling the house. you have, at best, a weak house speaker, who made a lot of concessions to make it easy for rank-and-file to challenge him if they don't like what he wants to do on the debt limit. it is hard to set up a clean debt bill. there is this. republicans made a huge point that inflation is being caused by all the spending and deficit.

i think from their perspective, at least, will give them an argument to make that they need to really push for spending cuts before they raise that debt ceiling. if you create a scenario where we could have a conflict and delay, this would be it. >> wow we have a divided congress something people believe is good for wall street san mand market. is that trend going to continue? >> i think that is like a bad baseline opinion to have certainly i don't think there will be a lot done in this congress -- maybe some in the permitting form that didn't make it during the last congress -- but when you look at issues such as weak u.s. productivity growth held by more immigration, for instance, that would be a great thing to do. regulatory reform. perhaps more being done in r&d

that would boost growth. not doing anything is good >> what about the 2024 election? i can't believe p we're talking about the 2024 election today. a lot of questions if president biden will run and if former president trump will run as well do you see that weighing on the markets? >> i think there is quite a bit of uncertainty i think you will have a lot more republicans running. i don't think, assuming he runs, i don't think it will be trump i don't think it is a lot of deference to him we will have candidates running. we don't know if the president is for sure going to run you could have multiple democrats running. they will have lots of ideas you could have a broad spectrum of what both parties want to do from centrist to is a lot of hek from a headline perspective, you

know, it could be a very interesting time let's put it that way. >> two other hot button issues immigration and cannabis reform. any movement on those this new year >> it will be hard i mentioned immigration earlier. that is a layup of what we should be doing as a country hard working, talented striving people come to america that shows the ultimate dysfunction which should be very bipartisan you will not see progress on that i really think if you get through this congress without a debt crisis, that would be a big win. >> jimmy pethokoukis thank you very much for being here happy new year coming up on "worldwide exchange," one of the market's bright spots in 2022 losing a shine in the new year the look at lithium's run may be

over when "worldwide exchange" returns.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." lithium prices doubling, but can

it continue in 2023? we have pippa stevens with more. >> momentum around electric vehicles and sending the metal to higher levels surging 50% in 2022 according to the benchmark data over last for years, lithium gained 88% over fears of the demand prices have retreated for the first time in a while. inflation and supply chain issues were cited to slow the output and delivery in ev. the break in the moment of reality will buy the supply chain time to build out from mine to battery cell still, the firm reiterated the lack of supply in many areas of the market is set to continue which will support higher for longer prices. despite the metal surge, it

hasn't translated to gains across the board for lithium miners big players are down over the last year with piedmont lithium in pre-production. one exception is xqm which gained 58% last year we are seeing the inflation pressure for these companies it takes years for a new mine to come online. production cannot be increased at the drop of the hat, frank. >> something to watch, pippa increasing u.s. lithium production is a priority for the biden administration where do we sntand >> the biden administration is trying last spring, the biden administration invoked the defense production act for electric vehicles. re really, the inflation reduction

act was the changer here which ties tax credits to the battery in the vehicle comes from and the manufacturing credits for domestic manufacturing facilities we have seen more than $40 billion of new factories announced in the wake of the i.r.a. however, even though there is the federal support, one of the major headwinds is permitting. that could be on the agenda this year as the projects seek to get off the ground in a more timely fashion. >> pippa stevens, thank you very much on deck here on "worldwide exchange," stocks looking to kickoff the year on a strong note tiffany mcghee is laying out the first trading day of 23 xt02ne we will look at what is high on her shopping list next stay with us hey dad, i'm almost out. i got you.

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welcome back time for the "wex wrap up" as we close in on the 6:00 hour. tesla news shareses of tesla down. the numbers did fall short of elon musk's expectations sam bankman-fried is set to appear in a new york city court rule today at 2:00 p.m he is expected to enter a plea of not guilty. one-third of the world economy is expected to be in recession in 2023 due to slowdowns in the u.s., european union and china. according to the international monetary fund chief.

twitter sued over not paying rent for the office in san francisco. that office separate from the company's headquarters spacex is raising $750 million in funding that values the company at $137 billion. early investors include sequoia. and bills safety damar hamlin suffering a cardiac arrest during the football game against the cincinnati bengals last night his heart beat was restored on the field and he is currently in critical condition best wishes to damar hamlin. let's look at the trading day. futures right now are solidly in the green. dow looks like it could open 250 points higher right now. remember, it is early. joining me now is ceo of pivotal advisers tiffany mcghee. happy new year >> great to see you, frank

happy new year >> how do you see 2023 q1 shaping up after the down market last year? >> yeah, 2022 is the year most people want to forget. going into 2023, there are two things which are really hard for investors to shake off so, the first thing is the failure of the 60/40 portfolio if you are invested in the 60/40 portfolio, you are in trouble now. you know, really coming off on 2020 and 2021 which is part of the story where investors were excited about growth stocks and coming into 2022 with equities which did not deliver and bonds did not provide cover from equity performance as well investors need to look at alternatives and introduce asset

classes in the portfolio i'll tell you i like commodities. go ahead >> i thought you were pausing. >> that's okay >> i'll lead you into this one if it is not bonds or equities, what are the assets people should look at here? >> commodities i talked about this before you can invest in etfs of commodities. this year, we invested in wheat and soy and corn a lot of those were up double digits the other is reits i like industrial reits. cool storage it was specific, but needed. i really do like that leaning into those industrial reit plays. >> tiffany, we focus on stocks and equities on the show i know you have a few picks.

if you want to dip your toe back into growth, what stock would you look at as a growth stock right now? >> so, one of the stocks i like is pinterest we look at three things. we pay attention to disruptive business models and competitive modes and management team that is intentional about execution of their business strategy i like pinterest. lulu all growth stocks are not tech stocks not the high tech innovative stocks when you look at lulu, they have 5% of the market share compared to 34% for nike. you have tons of runway. they really stake their claim in the athleisure space they are a direct-to-consumer model. dtc.com is doing well. they have the pricing power to

offset the higher cost they have tremendous avenues for growth they launch into men's and footwear and mirror. >> very interesting. i know a lot of men are looking. joe kernen coming up likes the pants. what factors should we look at for the year we mentioned the dip with the dow down 30% last year mega cap tech stocks are those on a discount or are you holding off on dipping your toe back into those? >> listen, there are great opportunities to buy good names at a discount. as long as the fed is still increasing rates, i think we will see a lot of the growthy names at a discount. i caution investors to pay attention in terms of strategy in picking growth stocks

whatever it is that you have conviction around, really pay attention to the balance sheet and bissinger models you want to be selective with growth stock picks there are a lot of stocks down, not because they are bad companies, but swept up in the downward momentum. >> you mentioned bonds didn't provide cover.changchanging do bonds become more attractive in 2023? >> maybe the later half of 2023 of th2023 keep in mind the fed is still inn creasing rates. hopefully today will be a good day. i don't see a drastic change in the first quarter of 2023. i don't necessarily think that bonds or a flip has been sw switched and bonds provide that

cover. it is very important for investors to stay invested, but look at the overall portfolio. you might need to rebalance. rethink how you will get through january and then through the first quarter of 2023. >> all right tiffany mcghee happy new year thank you. >> happy new year. futures are solidly in the green. that will do it for us here on "worldwide exchange. dow could open up 270 points higher nasdaq up as well that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. the first "squawk box" of the new year is coming up next

good morning stock futures pointing to strong gains at the open. it's a new year. the s&p closed 2022 down nearly

20%. nasdaq much worse. we will show what you is moving now. tesla falling short of the delivery target. new numbers straight ahead basically guided down. plus, drama in d.c today could be the first time in 100 years that a speaker vote fails on the first ballot. it is tuesday, january 3rd, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the gang is all back together. we are here for the new year guys, i missed you i have seen each of you