laundering, seen as a good thing if they're going to become compliant and strict on who's using this platform. but helping us out here, absolutely. >> 12% gain for coin kate, thank you. >> thank you for joining us for "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. >> stocks mostly higher, following the release of the fed minutes. this is the make or break hour for your money welcome, everyone, to closing bell i'm sara eisen there's the dow up 63 points s&p 500 holding on to a gain of 6/10 of 1% the groups leading, you've got real estate in the lead, also consumer discretionary is having a good day materials, financials, second day in a row, doing well energy, consumer staples and health care, those are the three defensive sectors, consumer

staples and health care in the red. chart of the day, it's microsoft. at the bottom of the dow after a ubs downgrades in stock to neutral from buy, citing risk jeff solomon will join us. plus, we'll talk to moody's analytics chief economist mark zandi about the job cut news at salesforce and the broader trend of layoffs, where the job market stands let's get to the dashboard with senior markets commentator, mike santoli. what is on your radar? now it's only energy in the red. >> the rally had some of the starts taken out by the fed minutes. the s&p 500 is still caught in that very new year mean reversion type action. the laggards of last year

performing well. the leaders of last year coming off the boil a little bit. that has kept us in this zone, just about 3,800 now, the market didn't make my real use of the traditional late december strength except to fail to break down, again, this 3,800-ish level. keeps it out of the october low zone, and takes us all the way back to six or seven months ago. have not climbed above that today. it's the final day for those keeping track of the rally period, seven trading days 3822 is the level they should finish above if it's going to be considered a positive indicator. really it's the absence of a potential negative indicator as long as we finish higher the job market, we got the job openings, labor turnover survey. take a look at the quit rate this is actually a real number job openings are real, but they could also be a little bit of an illusion people quitting their jobs because they find opportunities somewhere else there's a tight labor market going on so this shows you the quit rate,

in percent, among all non-farm payrolls going back a few years and this line is the 2019 average level so pre-pandemic level. it shows you while the quit rate is coming down some softening of the labor market, it's very tight, well above the levels of 2019 this is where the fed is right now. it's figuring out how much more labor market they might need to engineer, in order to get inflation, more decisively lower, and i think that the market keeps toggling between the two ideas of strong labor markets, good thing. consumers can spend, what are the implications for policy. >> that's exactly what i was going to ask you by the way, i know you don't like openings. they're still strong too. >> it's real, but this is more tangible. >> a lot of job postings online. it's a strong labor market what does that mean for stocks is it positive for stocks? because it helps feed the soft landing scenario or negative because the fed is going to have to go tighter.

>> it keeps the markets stuck in this zone. there are days it wakes up and is a positive or potential negative financial conditions have not really loosened up stocks are down a little bond yields are up a little. the dollar is up slightly. the vix is up slightly in other words, the fed doesn't have to come out and look at the markets today and say you guys have it wrong, versus what we saw a few weeks ago. down the road, if the market gets excited, that raises a different question. >> financial conditions. we'll see you soon what we got from the fed, just in the last hour, the market spill that we have after it came out. yields are lower on bonds, but they're a little bit higher than where they were before the minutes. the dollar is still weaker our steve liesman joins us from washington with some of the highlights, steve. what was your take away? >> minutes to the fed's december meeting released this afternoon showing fed officials just about as hawkish as the fed chairman jay powell was in the fed

conference following the meeting. the minutes said no member thought it would be appropriate to cut rates in 2023 directly contradicting expect tags expecs in their projections this year in december compared to their projections in september for a taste of how the hawks ruled the december meeting, and there weren't many doves present, the minutes said a restrictive stance was needed until they were confident inflation was headed toward target several said history warned prematurely loosening policy the risk of tightening too little was clearly seen as the bigger concern you can see how much concern there was by looking at the fed's forecast for rates above 5% that's 17 of 19 fed officials and yet a forecast for the 2023 growth to be a year well below trend, according to the minutes. finally, the fed is clearly watching market levels, and the

minutes said officials warned against a premature easing in financial conditions some of those financial conditions have bounced back, with but they remain looser than they had been. back to you. >> so steve, is this the clearest sign yet that the fed is getting worried that the stock market has rallied too much, that the dollar has weakened too much away from their goals of tightening to get rid of inflation >> i would have to check to be sure, but this was certainly one of the more stark mentions of concern about the easing of financial conditions you remember what happened in the summer of '21 when financial conditions eased and that led the fed back to the 75 basis point rate hikes and to clamp down on financial conditions and essentially target them. what happened, if you want to judge it, i don't have a chart with me, i'm sorry but if you look at the goldman sachs financial conditions index, it fell by two points leading up to that meeting, and it's gathered back about a point

of it, which tries to include all of the different aspects out there, like the stock market and bond yields. you're right to point that out as a major concern of the federal reserve. they need rates high to keep growth low and loosen up the job market to get rid of that threat of inflation they feel is out there. >> it's especially problematic, when the loosening of financial conditions speaks to the market expecting cuts when the fed is saying we're not cutting in 2023, so a little bit on different pages on both of those sides. >> they went right at that in a way i had not seen in the past they said no fed member has forecast cuts in 2023, they didn't have to say that because you can see that by looking at the sep. but they made a point of saying exactly that and trying to get right at the market's expectations for cuts. >> steve, thank you. i know you have a flight to catch. which is why you're joining us from the airport we look forward to your interview tomorrow morning with

esther george, kansas city fed president where they'll talking about that outgoing fed president esther george. let's bring in i capital chief investment strategist. fed is telling you clearly, they do not want higher stock prices. you know the adage, don't fight the fed. is this a big red light. >> don't fight the fed, that's right, and i think what we saw today is this price action tug of war is likely to continue the next few months. you have signs that on the one hand, inflation seems to be peaking. look at the manufacturing data you have a clear slump in manufacturing. you have a huge pull back in price in fact almost on par with what we had during covid there's more and more signs building that inflation is peaking, and yeah, you've got fed on the other side, on the other side of this tug of war saying that's not good enough. and we need more substantial progress, so i think what this means for stocks is that any time they try to rally, they're

going to be met with an obstacle, and that is the fed. i think that's going to be the story for the next few months, unfortunately. >> what do you do? >> well, i think you recognize that 2022 has been a huge year of a reset, and 2023 should actually be a better year. it doesn't mean it's going to happen immediately what i mean by that, let's talk about things we're optimistic about. inflation is indeed peaking, it's fuel that's lower it's food that's lower, it's durable goods prices that are clearly in fact heading into inflation territory right now. i think over the next few months that's going to be a positive, so inflation is peaking. the second thing is everybody has been waiting for a recession, a growth slow down, and i think we're in one right now. it is upon us, and guess what, i actually do think that's priced in take one look at the consensus gdp projections for this year, and consensus expects nothing in

terms of growth or very little in terms of growth for 2023, so, again, i think this slow down has actually been pretty well priced and then the last thing, the big reset that we had last year is all across the board in valuations whether you look at semiconductors, whether you look at software, whether you look at publicly traded, we had a massive reset. to your question, what do you do, well you recognize that and say, well, investors have the luxury of being offensive, and at the same time, being opportunistic. what i mean by that, if you were in cash last year at the beginning of the year, you got paid zero. today, you get paid 4 and 4 1/2% yielding 5 to 6% so you can afford to take little risk there and get the yield, but at the same time, you look across the board, whether it's 70s, real estate, pockets of software, buy now private equity we're seeing a mass evaluations

and therefore you might as well take some opportunities there. >> right it doesn't sound like you're super bullish on stocks. you like some of the alternative and expect interference from the fed. you see some interesting opportunities, and one of them i noticed in your notes is public reets, and i was wondering why of all the places that have been hit in 2022, you're calling out in particular, with pressure and question, today's announcement for salesforce on commercial real estate that they're cutting back, what's going to happen to that sector? >> first of all, there's so many pockets of commercial real estate, and, you know, you've got multifamily residential, that's one of the largest sectors of commercial real estate it's not necessarily office and retail, that we're being optimistic about it's some of the secular growers of housing and logistics the reason i call out the sector broadly, you had a massive sector not because fundamentals are poor but because there's been a huge rate impact now, if you do believe the long end of the curve, i think the

rates peak has been behind us, not in terms of the fed funds rate but the long end rates, and i think we'll see peak rates volatility as well to the extent that rates subside in the long end of the curve to the extend that the rates decline as well. that should be the reprieve for the publicly traded sector if you look at the valuation, as it real estates to the underlying value, that's why i think they priced in the bulk of the rate shock, you know, maybe even some investment stock, and should be poised to do better, especially if rates start moving lower in the long end. >> they're doing well today on the top of the market, even before you came on thank you very much for joining me up 2.4%, that sector

anastasia amaroso. cowen will join us to talk about the m and a market after a slow down last year. what needs to happen to reignite listings s&p up 7/10 of 1%. we have taken a tick higher as we picked off this final hour of trade. every sector green except for energy we'll be right back.

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. 2022 was a rocky year for ipos the market saw volumes fall 45%

with proceeds at 61% felt like more than that in the u.s., the number of ipos fell 76%, proceeds down 95%. there's the u.s. figures, and take a look at the renaissance etf ipos down 5% over the last year does a new year mean new opportunities for the ipo market joining us is cowen ceo jeff solomon, i like to get a good read on the capital markets with you. >> good to see you happy new year. >> happy new year. is this year going to be better for the markets than last year >> ipos or financing >> in general. >> talking about the fed today, they're doing exactly what they said they were going to do they have got to make sure that everybody understanding they're going to cure the scourge of inflation. it's not at all surprising to those of us in the market who have been around for a while if you're a student of the market, you know what happened in the '70s, they know what happened in the '70s the fed took their foot off the grass. this fed chair knows the story,

he's going to talk down inflation by continuing to be hawkish. that's exactly what is happening today. >> we rallied through it, which means a lot of that is in the market. >> the market is a leading indicator. the fed is a lagging indicator the fed is going to wait for affirmation that you're seeing the slow down they expect to happen before they take their foot off the gas the market will price that in as the market has priced that in. we focus on the last few weeks of the year because we have bias, that wasn't great, no santa rally, but there was a fourth quarter rally, and why, because the market is pricing in the likelihood of settling out at a much higher level, and okay, still pretty good. >> does that mean we're going to see ipos this year. >> i don't know if it will be the same as it was in '20 and '21. could we go back to '18 and '19 levels, i think we could there are more than a hundred companies in the backlog waiting. i don't think there needs to be

a fed pivot to clear there needs to be a significant sign that inflation is abating, and the fed is going to stop raising at some point. >> there's a misperception it has to be feds not raising is good enough. i think the market today kind of indicates that >> are you looking, what, toward the end of the year for more action >> more second half. i think there will be ipos there's $1 billion plus ipo mobilized this year. it traded up well. only one it's hard to say this year is going to be worse than last year if you're looking for a silver lining in this, last year was rocky and rough. this year it's hard to see how this gets recreated. >> what about m and a. >> volumes have picked up again. >> it's not dead. >> i've talked about a bit of a rally in the fourth quarter, how that actually happened we have put in the low and m and

a in the first half of last year we get back to levels we saw in '18, '19 i think it will be more selective. there will be certain types of deals that get done, and others don't get done sponsor-to-sponsor deals, if you've got good cash flows, easier to finance in this environment. private financing, still available than lending those kinds of deals market deals getting done. what's not getting done. if you've got a cash shortfall if your business model requires or a deal is required to have margin improvement in order to meet the numbers people aren't doing those? why because they don't have to we're finally starting to see both for the ipo market and the m and a market, formerly high priced valuations of private tech companies finally coming down 50, 60, 70% on the next rounds to match what's happened in bellweather names

tesla is down 70%. you can't tell me that your tech company that's a private company isn't down or isn't down meaningfully that's kind of what's happening. >> seeing that starting to happen to that degree in the private market. >> people need to raise money reach a point at which they say, i need the money and the valuation is less important. a lot of people got wiped out this year, right because they didn't get themselves financed in '20 and '21. i think the message is valuation is less important in a difficult and dicey environment. get your money execute on your business plan. long-term things will work out. >> within that criteria, is biotech, are we going to see deals? i know you've got a handle on that >> amgen horizon is a megadeal biotech operates in a sphere unto itself. i think coming into this year, we're much more bullish on that. i don't know that we'll see the

same ipo activity in '20 and '21. they'll do it off the back of good news. the ones that are public already. i'll know a lot more after we get back from the conference in san francisco next week. >> that one. >> they're exciting. >> good to have her back >> what about spacs? that was the third thing that sort of fell off a cliff last year. >> i don't anticipate us going back to '20 and '21. there were a number of spacs that were terminated last year, i think there's more that has to go on that it will return to a more rational amount of capital in that market. i think we need to get regulatory clarity which i think we have been vocal about the s.e.c. should get around understanding the benefits of understanding spacs. it got overdone. >> there are benefits of spacs. >> it's another path for certain types of companies to raise

money, and, again, if you got a really good management team, the company was ready to be public, and you've got a sponsor that understands how to underwrite, then you can get good outcomes, and just the problem is way too much capital, chasing way too many deals at ridiculously inflated price points, and that's not sustainable. >> and it came out is the froth out of this market? >> the froth is definitely -- i don't want to say it's out completely listen, again, i go back to these bellweather stocks in the faangs, down as much as they are, a lot more work to understand that people have derisk in their portfolios, so in this year, you actually get to be able to pick and choose your spots it's a lot less frenetic on the way up on the way down, you feel like you're missing something, should be doing something you can be patient, think about how you're going to actually position your portfolio for longer term things, energy transition, reshoring and supply chain rebuild. these are megathemes that are

going to play out in the next five years you have the time to do your homework, make investments because the market is probably not going to get away from you as fast as it has been in the last couple of years. >> jeff, good to see you thank you for the outlook, appreciate it. >> happy to be here. happy new year. >> the ceo of cowen. show you what's happening in the markets. we cut our gains in hatlf up 44 points you have had a number of sectors go negative, energy, staples, health care and now technology joins the red list the nasdaq remains higher and is an outperformer told, up about 4/10 wall street is buzzing about kevin mccarthy's multiple failed attempts to become speaker of the house. we're going to tell you what the wall street analysts are saying about this next. as we head to break, top tickers on cnbc.com. tesla right on top it is higher for a change. up about 5% today. as jeff solomon said, down,

what, 70% over the last year ten-year note yield is right there, 3.7%. yields remain lower. apple, microsoft, and salesforce, which is up 3%, we'll talk about somlaffs e yoat that company as well when we come back.

what is wall street buzzing about? major drama in washington, d.c. over who will serve as the next speaker of the house and potential market and economic impact so far we've seen five rounds of votes, three yesterday, two today, and they are about to starting voting on the sixth round. each time, kevin mccarthy coming up short, losing as many as 20 republican votes when he can only afford to lose four the house will be paralyzed until the impasse is resolved. what does it mean for the markets?

gol characterized by increased market volatility. kbw's brian gardener said investors should be on guard noting brinksmanship over the debt ceiling could lead to market volatility and adding that the current situation is a clear signal of what to expect later in the year. height capital markets notes that mccarthy has agreed to several concessions in his attempt to become speaker and that could hinder his ability to pass critical legislation. bottom line, the market impact right now doesn't seem like a whole lot but the chaos in congress could have implications down the road and weelall streei eyeing the debt ceiling decision. salesforce, the latest tech company to announce job cuts mark zandi and how these tech layoffs will impact the broader economy.

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salesforce shares moving higher today one of the top performers in the dow, the company announcing spending cuts, which include layoffs, affecting 10% of workers and reducing some of its office space as well this is part of cofounder marc benioff's restructuring plan

saying salesforce hired too many people over the past two years tech companies has a whole have been laying off workers at the fastest pace now since the pandemic began, according to the "wall street journal." lyft, amazon, meta, twitter, all announcing layoffs in recent months let's bring in moody's analytics chief economist mark zandi. it really hasn't shown up in the broader economic data which continues to point to a strong jobs market. do you expect it to make an impact >> it will have an impact, it's small in the grand scheme of things we got a data point today, from the jolt, job opening liquid turnover, the molayoffs in the month of november is a record low. it's rare in the past 25 years that the data has been available, and well below what

we saw pre-pandemic, so despite the surge in tech layoffs, it's not translating into layoffs economy wide the rest of the economy is still absorbing those people that are losing jobs and creating enough jobs so so far so good. it's not translating into any significant impact on the broader economy? >> but is that coming next this year >> i would expect it, right, i mean, it almost has to by design the federal reserve is working really hard to cool off the job market get job growth down to something closer to zero, because they want to see unemployment start to notch higher and get the wage growth back in so the inflation comes back in. so they're going to continue to push, meaning continuing to raise interest rates until that happens. i'd be pretty surprised if we don't see layoffs. at least normally. en job growth is definitively slowing. all of that is because of less

hiring, not because of increased layoffs. >> i have to give you credit, mark, because you have been bullish almost in the soft landing camp, at least for several months, especially when all of the doomsayers were calling recession when the fed really started tightening, triple rate hikes, four in a row, inverted yield curve, do you still think that they can pull this off while avoiding a recession or a very shallow one? >> well, you're very kind. i'll take it, the kind words, and of course there's a lot of script to be written here, and the risks are high, i mean, with inflation where it is, and the fed on the warpath, you know, if anything else goes wrong, recession becomes more likely. i think we have a fighting chance you know, we have been getting some recently good news here over the last couple of months everything from lower oil prices to the end of china's no covid policy feels like the job market is cooperating more or less it feels like everything is

moving in the right direction to get inflation back sufficiently before the fed has to push rates up and the economy into a recession. we need a little bit of luck nothing else can go wrong, and the fed has to get it right. they got to be pretty definite with their policy making but, yeah, i think we can make our way through, and i'll have to say, even though i think recession rates are high, my baseline outlook, you know, the outlook, the headline forecast that we provide to clients has no recession slow improgrowth, not a recessin 2023 >> my question is what happens to inflation this year because if demand holds up enough to not take us into a recession, mark, are we going to see inflation come down fast enough for the fed? >> i think so. oil prices are down. they were paying $3 for a gallon regular unleaded that's going to translate through the middle of the year and lower inflation. we've got the no covid policy coming off b, so once china gets

past the infections, supply chains normalize, and then by this time next year, the fact that rents have gone flat here for lots of different reasons will translate into a lot lower housing cost inflation by this time next year, and by then, i think the labor market will be soft enough, unemployment will be up enough, layoffs will have normalized to a substaignificant degree that it will allow service price inflation to come in as well we can get through this with inflation coming back in now, clearly consumers, we don't want consumers to go out and spend with abandon that's not what they're doing. they're spending what they need to spend to keep everyone in the game, and keep the economy moving forward as long as they can continue to do that, yeah, i think we can avoid an outright downturn >> mark, thank you it's good to get an updat on your thoughts, mark zandi, at moody's analytics. with the optimism about the soft

landing, dash has gone negative. we lost the steam. united states the healt-- unite health care, and the s&p 500 is down from where we were in the hour, nasdaq 100 just turning negative, and the nasdaq holds on to a small gain of a tenth of 1% tesla higher, and nvidia and netflix. microsoft, amazon and alphabet are pulling the nasdaq the other way. coming up, we'll be joined by an analyst who says investors should sink their teeth into these names. find out why when we return. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills,

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we have got a market flash on carnival. let's go to seema mody with the news. >> we're looking at shares of carnival spiking here on a dow jones report that the company is starting to raise prices on certain things like gratuity charges starting april 1st will be going up. wi-fi charges on board a cruise will be going up it's a sign the cruise lines are perhaps starting to get pricing power back, and that is sending shares of the major cruise lines led by carnival higher by 9% the big story last year, when were the cruise lines going to be able to raise prices. at first they had to lower prices to really attract the value customer, but could be a sign that things are starting to return

back to you. >> maybe they're in the sweet spot where people are still traveling a lot before we're in a potential recession, things do get worse on the economy thank you. cruise lines taking off today. let's check out the stealth mover, shares of the biotech firm are soaring after positive late stage study results for experimental blood disorder treatment. it plans to file for fda approval by the middle of the year and hopes to launch the drug in the u.s. in 2024 the stock is up 32 1/2%. breaking news on the house speaker vote this is what, vote number 6. ylan mui with the details. >> that's right. california republican kevin mccarthy is on track toward losing his sixth vote to become speaker of the house currently there are seven republicans opposing his nomination he can only lose four, so he's expected to come up short once again. now, on the floor, republicans are admitting that this is starting to feel a lot like

groundhog day. lawmakers are getting antsy and frustrated at the lack of movement here, so there is some discussion about potentially adjourning after this vote is over so that lawmakers can get in a room and start negotiating, get down a brass tax and potentially reach some sort of breakthrough, though at this point it's unclear what that path would be. as for now, the house on its sixth vote for speaker, and currently no candidate has garnered enough support to win the top job. . >> what a mess thank you. look at alibaba, leading the chinese tech stocks higher on new hopes beijing is easing tech regulations. up 12 1/2% that story, plus salesforce surging in a bliulsh call on the faang stocks when we take you inside the market zones, next.

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bell market zone mike santoli here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day as always. plus, we've got dan simon on amazon, and deirdre bosa on alibaba. what happened to the rally, dow is down 8 points, s&p up 9 i know that the fed minutes came out this afternoon, and they were pretty hawkish, but we expected it. >> yeah. >> right so what was the problem. >> cooled things off a little bit. most of what we're seeing in terms of the indexes coming in is, again, the effect of things like microsoft and some of the megacaps not cooperating the s&p still up 1%. it doesn't change the story, which is the market really can't gather up a lot of conviction for a directional move and

hasn't been able to for, you know, 20 or so trading days right now. i thought that the data today were very instructive about the situation we're in, manufacturing looked rough ism number, a new low for this cycle. however, inflation coming down, and the employment component, strong relatively firm. so you have to ask this question, can the economy decompress enough for the fed's satisfaction, just with housing and manufacturing taking a hit, and the rest of the economy not doing so, which would support corporate profitability. that's where we find ourselves at the beginning of the year >> got it. let's talk microsoft because it is under some heavy pressure today. actually one of the biggest drivers on the dow ubs downgrading the tech giant to neutral, citing week azure field checks and a view that office growth is likely to slow in '23 here to make the bull case is jeffries analyst, a buy rating and why is that analyst wrong

about slower growth for the drivers, azure and office? >> hey, sara i don't think they're wrong about slower growth. it's just a question of how much is embedded in microsoft many expected embedded numbers to go lower. microsoft still is the best thousands in the neighborhood, which, again, this neighborhood in tech is not a great place to be right now, but microsoft, in our opinion, in terms of double digit growth, margin improvement and the quality of the management team leaves us long-term more bullish but i think tactically, everyone's very worried about tech, there still has to be a reset. we still have seen numbers not bottom yet amazon lowered their cloud forecast, and we continue to believe numbers this year across both the big hyper scalers, microsoft and ews will decel

decelerate again this year i think ultimately you come back to microsoft as a $10 earnings power story, plus you put a 24 to mid-20 multiple and you're back in the mid-200s microsoft feels a little capped on the up side, you have to put a more aggressive multiple on it to make it work. right now, i think that's a hard thing to argue in the environment we're in especially as we head into the recession in the back half of this year >> yeah, it did under perform amazon, though, for the year brent, i wanted to ask you about salesforce, speaking of coming economic weakness on the news today that they're going to be cutting 10% of the work force, cutting back on some of the real estate to me it signalled okay, marc benioff is back in the driver's seat after the brett taylor exit he launched this company during the .com bust, been through the 2008 recession and is taking steps to preserve margin

how do you view it >> yeah, there's no question the big concern here has been margin this company is massively under earning on the bottom line, relative to microsoft adobe, oracle, and it's been the single worst stock in the last three to five years relative to the large cap names. so i think the bulls will argue, they're getting religion around margin the bears will say, we've heard this forever from them it's all words, no action. as they say in texas, big hat, little cattle on the margin, and, you know, i think that they're putting the right steps in, and look, everyone believes it's a show me story there's no question there's been incredible departures, the sentiment is awful it's probably the worst sentiment any of the software needs to cover that's the good news they're making good strides to get the margins above 25%, which we think they can with this cut. but they're a little late.

remember, i mean, facebook, a number of tech names put these cuts in the fall everyone said why did they wait so late, at least they showed up with more discipline, but again, i think investors are skeptical, and this may signal there's a demand issue that's bigger than we all see so the other question is what happens to revenue now, and i think that's still a big open question the front half of the year. >> 139, your price target 230 on salesforce brent, thank you for joining me on some of those big movers. brent thill. amazon is coming off the worst year since 2000, but our next guest calls it his top pick for 2023 and sees a major turn around ahead let's bring in dan sandman, buy rating of $130 price target implies 52% up side from here. so dan, beyond the fact that it was a big loser last year, what

makes it different this year >> well, look, i think what we're seeing across a lot of the internet sector right now is valuations that have come down and been compressed because of fears of recession fears of macro head winds and broadly across the group, you know, we're fairly bullish to buy into that fear and we titled our initiation report, the famous warren buffet quote, be greedy when others are fearful. for amazon as the top pick, of obviously the leadout and near term may be a little bit more choppy in the ecommerce market we think by the time we're crossing into the back half of next year and exiting through holiday season, we're going to see amazon beginning to take share again in the ecommerce space. we're going to allow those higher margin businesses like cloud, like advertising, to start to shine through and allow operating leverage to flow through in that stock, especially after so much

investment they have done in fulfillment, it goes back through the pandemic to when they were investigating one-day shipping we think it's time for that investment to start to form. >> you like a number of the faang names for similar reasons. google you see as an opportunity, meta, snap, not a thing, but certainly one of the high flying tech names that collapsed in the last year and i get the valuation argument, dan, but what about the macro? what about risks around higher interest rates we just got a message from the fed two hours ago that their work is not done they are not planning rate cuts in '23, and they're worried about easing financial conditions all of that is bad for these stocks, isn't it >> it is, and it all comes back to sort of what are we baking in in the market, and if there's a big incremental step down, a little less interest rate with google, and meta and snap, which are all pretty much advertising

driven we are interested in the gdp forecast where unemployment goes and consumer spending goes you're right, right now is the fearful point, that investors are very concerned with what's coming you know, when you look back in history, you tend to find these are the sort of moments where building longer term positions, we emphasized here, making a call on the quarter or anything along those lines but if you're looking on a 12 to 18 month view, we do think this point of sort of maximum fear is when you want to start building those positions. >> there you go. there's the bull case. dan, thank you dani daniel, thank you. soaring after ant group received approval by chinese regulators to expand its consumer finance business. deirdre bosa joins us. investors seem to be taking it as a good sign that beijing could ease up on regulatory pressures. we have been fooled before, but

i guess they have to try to stimulate their economy now. what do you make of it >> we have been fooled before, and i think where investors are probably looking or putting weight into is the property factor not necessarily the chinese internet names we have been fooled before, and just last week, we know the regulatory bodies in china started to look at online brokerages, and some of the names in the space, the names listed in the u.s. crumbled under that pressure. there's also the question of how much damage has been done. yes, alibaba is one of the leaders moving higher on the back of that, but is ant going to be worth $300 billion ever again, and there's also other companies, lost tha lot of grow. and didi had to be listed. new and upand coming names, are they getting too big will beijing look to them next these are questions that plague the chinese markets and tech

companies. >> got it. deirdre bosa, thank you. we have two minutes to go in the trading day. mike, what are you seeing in the market internals things off that little this hour. >> they have in the index level but under the surface, you can see that most stocks are up and the vast majority of the volume is to the up side, six to one advance to go declining volume, mid cap index up 1%. equal rated s&p also out performing it is the huge megacaps weighing on things. here's a consumer discretionary and consumer staples, three months, equal weighted, showing discretionary starting to make a run on a six-month basis, out performing, the consumer holding it okay in the market's estimation at the moment volatility index, subdued in the 22s. we have had a calm stretch of trading days in a tight range. it shows you we're bracing for½ for a little bit more whippiness throughout january >> and we're back on the up swing into the close it's been kind of all over the place. dow up 131 points.

s&p is up about 3/4 of 1%. some buying here on the close and the nasdaq up 7/10 of 1% on the close. if you look at where it's coming from within the s&p, you've got every sector green, just like that in the last moment or so, what's working best, real estate having a good day. materials, financials, consumer discretionary. energy managed to close green with a slide in oil. nasdaq managed to pose higher as well almost a percent that's it for me on "closing bell," see you tomorrow, into to "overtime. >> welcome, everybody. i'm scott wapner in just a few minutes, the technical take on tesla from mark newton. he was pretty good in calling this slide too we'll find out what's next dan ice with us momentarily too, why he cut apple's price target. two big stocks making mo