who is very populous and he thinks this is the populous. that's the big change in the committee is people fighting inflation are the same ones who wanted to maximize employment in the last cycle >> we'll see you tomorrow for your last work that's mike santoli. tomorrow leon cooperman coming up he'll give his view on the year ahead. i'll see you then. "fast money" is now. right now on "fast," the fed telling the market it sees higher rates sticking around for some time, and warned against what he calls premature loosening. taking quite a lot of steam out of the market rallying today do we need to prepare for the same kind of market in 2023? plus, buggish on the banks top analyst mike mayo here to tell us why he thinks one of the financials he follows picked up more than 50% this year. his banking buy, minutes away. and later, meta's winter meltup microsoft's major methoddown, and mining for gains in gold

i'm sara eisen in for melissa lee. this is "fast money" from nasdaq market site we'll start with the market's post fed moments. stocks giving up much of their early gains after the central bank's latest signal that more rate hikes are coming. all three indexes briefly falling into the red mid afternoon. the markets did manage to finish with gains though well off their highs of the session the down up as much as 7200 points ended just 133 points higher minutes from the fed's latest meeting showing officials are committed to keeping rates higher until there is more significant progress in bringing down inflation after the release, futures markets stopped pricing in a rate cut before the end of the year so should markets be bracing for another new normal on rates? guy? it was pretty clear messaging from the fed today >> sara eisen, wonderful to be

with you, although not in the presence you have there at the nasdaq >> thank you. >> absolutely. i do not like the federal reserve. i think people that watch this show know that i'm sure you're aware of it as well i'll tell you, i think they've done an excellent job of messaging over the last six to nine months. so good for them for whatever reason, the market doesn't necessarily want to listen, but the most interesting thing for me today was neel kashkari, who was as wrong as anybody a year ago has gone from the biggest dove to the biggest hawk, which is interesting if you had told me that yesterday, i would say the market is going to sell off in a meaningful way that didn't happen i take some encouragement to that to your point, this new normal of higher for longer is not being fully priced into the equity markets i believe >> i expect kashkari, who is a minneapolis fed present and becomes a voting member this year 100 more basis points of tightening this year, which is probably on the high end of everything so does that mean that the stock market is not a safe place right now? >> i'm not sure. that would be -- if we knew

right now for sure 100 more basis points of tightening, and then what, though? i think it would be a negative if we heard that was he the outlier >> yeah. >> he is the outlier i'm not expecting that but i'm not expecting any kind of easing in the near term at all. i think that we don't have enough data to support that yet. i know we haven't seen some of the lag effects. we hear a lot about that, and actually the economy is slowing quicker than we think and inflation is lower than we think, but it's still there. i think for a while, this is the new normal of rates. and we're just used to what we think of as normal, was never normal that was ridiculous free money for a long time >> so what does that mean for the market now, bonawyn? a lot of it has been priced in, hasn't it? >> i would argue there is quite a bit left to be priced in you look at fed fund futures, they've continued to fight that all the way up along the entire way, they have been the petulant child saying we refuse to go. if you take a look at the vix, sell at a subdued level.

the outlier right now is gold. you're starting to see strength there. and the miners which kind of speaks to people's search for safety if you look at yields, we mentioned it earlier when you can get 4, 4 1/2, 5% risk-free and dividend yields aren't looking quite as attractive, what is the risk reward for entering a market with this unknown here so i think there is still some things left to be priced in. i think the market will get constructive at some point but i don't think that people that are calling for a new bottom or retesting of the lows from last october are out over their skis at all by any choice of the matter. >> a lot of negativity i don't expect you to be any different. >> why are you looking at me, sara no, great to have you here, sara. >> thank you >> we keep hearing this what's priced in right now. a lot of us on this desk, and you say we haven't been negative we've been cautious. because what we see from past cycles here is the stock market has not really discounted i think the differential between where rates are. if you look at kind of what

expectations are for that terminal rate, like you just talked about, kashkari being the outlier now on the hawkish side. he was the outlier on the dovish side a couple of years ago i think you can kind of take his opinion out. i don't think it's going to be -- he is going to be a voting member if you look at what happened today, the stock market really didn't want to rally if you look at how it rallied towards the end of the day after the minutes, that seemed a bit manufactured and especially on a day where you saw crude oil get petroleum meld >> i disagree. dan, if the fed told you a few months ago that financial conditions are too loose and we're worried about it, and nobody on the committee expects a rate cut this year, the market would have sold off so hard. the market held up yields stayed lower and the dollar stayed weaker through that that happened month ago. what would happen to this market >> here is the thing it's the second day of the year. we know how flows go with know how the market acted over the last couple of weeks. i think the cocktail stocks today was good yields that were 3.9% a few

trading days ago on the ten-year, trading at 3.65. the u.s. dollar index down a little bit those are all good things on a near term basis. again, i think the reaction that you'd what after the minutes is probably the reaction that we see turn into a trend as we get closer towards q4 earnings again, the stock market is doing to tray on a couple of things, s&p earnings and yields, right to your point about the outlier view of where the fed funds is going to be, at some point, if you start seeing s&p earnings numbers come down meaningful, below $200, okay, for this year, 2023, and then you have this staunch view that the fed is going to stick it out, that's just not great for stocks. at the lows s&p last year down 27% from its all-time highs that it made in the first week of the year a year ago. again, i think we're probably going to be down testing the october lows at some point in the next couple of months. you can say day to day what you think reaction is to some fed speaker. it doesn't matter. we're going lower.

>> what is it, a fed call or a guy earnings and recession call? that's really the story this year last year it was about fed hikes and inflation. a lot of people think this year is going to be about the slowdown and the impact of all that. >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. by the way, i don't think we deal in negativity or positivity i think we deal in another word ending in ity, that's reality. nice job by g-swizzle there. and we've been pretty decent with that. >> people say they're realists >> fair enough but to a certain extent, there is a truth to that and i understand that for 99% of the people out there, they want to see the market go higher. so there is this hope that things will continue and they feel good when you say things that are positive but, again, you are trying to, i think, have a narrative of truth and honesty and our opinions for quite some time, we voiced this opinion with that said, i'm not an economist, so i won't talk about

recession or not what i do think we have a problem with are earnings, to dan's point. i think we all pretty much understand where the fed is coming from good for them now you have to ask yourself what's the right number for s&p earnings and it's probably either side of 200. and again, what's the right multiple in this environment and it's probably not 18 it's probably closer to 16, 17 and that gets us to the levels that we talked about for some time by the way, david tepper, a week and a half, two weeks ago said pretty much exactly that >> yeah. the earnings risk is there and a lot of people, think, karen, that the estimates haven't come down enough in the sectors and the stocks that you follow, what does it look like? >> it's a mix. some of them, they have come down a lot, right? you and i look at retail those multiple, i mean, they have hardly bounced at all so i think we always talk about the market as a monolith, but it isn't. there are some that are super highfliers we have some tech stocks that came in a lot that are still really expensive multiples are really high.

and then i think there is some retail stuff that is really low. and i think if the fed stays longer, higher for longer, then that's where i want to be. and i know we'll get to mike mayo later but the bank sector is also one. >> they've been doing well outperforming today and yesterday on the market. let's go deeper dive into bonds. with all this fed talk and what we saw today, cnbc's on-air editor rick santelli joins us live from chicago and the cme. rick, what did you make of the action >> you know, i just find it very interesting that as you look a chart of ten-year note yields, we're going to close -- we did close at the lowest yield since december 23rd. now granted, that wasn't all that long ago, but as you look at that chart, you can see that we peaked right around the 4 1/4 area in november, and it was what, november 7, 22 it was november we had 4.25. the fact is the fed doesn't like the market easing financial conditions you've both been discussing

this we dent like misperceptions. the problem i have is who exactly has the misperception with the fed they're worried about easing of financial conditions since november why? because many are worried that they're going to go too far, or they're not paying attention to all the issues of the day, whether it's energy prices, rents, used car prices, supply chain issues, they're all moving in the right direction i understand services may be worthy inflation is going to show up. we are only two or three revisions away from a job market that might not be as strong. and the fed is putting all their eggs in one labor basket and i think that's probably a mistake. so to summarize, the fed's got a tough job to do, but i think they're not giving adequate knowledge to the other side of the equation, and that is investors also understand that the fed most likely is going to take its job too seriously, go too far, and stay too high for too long and that's why financial conditions are easing. it's a matter of a failure to

communicate. >> what about on the cutting question, rick what you take it that far? i thought it was interesting they made a point saying none of the committee members expect us to be cutting rates in '23, when going into the meeting, the market was expecting it. >> listen, i'm not sure if the fed's going to come back and ease in 2023 or not, but one thing i am positive about, they have no idea how the economy is going to look in the third quarter of this year nobody does, really. nobody has been very good at forecasting since covid hit. and even worse since covid has receded. so in the final analysis, i would say that the chances of the fed going too far and have to reverse policy are high i would say 60 to 65% chance but that might be much later in the year, and maybe they'll hang pat at whatever terminal rate they have and try to postpone that as long as possible into 2024 but guess what, sara

if they do that, the market will get the job done for them. you think the curve is inverted now? just wait. >> rick, nice cool hand luke reference. well done by you and i will tell you, none of these fed officials can hold a candle to paul newman. but what i will say is i think they study history in '72 they thought they had tamed and beaten inflation, only to have it come raging back in '73. i think they're concerned exactly that will happen if they don't keep their foot on the gas. thoughts >> you know what i don't disagree with you. the problem is the world in '72 is a world far different than the world we live in china was just a distant thought on the horizon not buying that anything that happened with regard to the domestic economy in '72 going to be an adequate comp for the global economy in 2023 believe me, it isn't only the u.s. that is going to get a back loop to the fed that they've gone too far it's going to be the entire globe. because even though energy

prices are down in the u.s., the energy problem has certainly not gone away. and it's going to be a thorn in the side of the global economy for many years. >> rick santelli, thank you very much for joining us tonight. bonawyn, i just want the get your thoughts. if stocks are a risky place to be because of what the fed is doing and you're worried about earnings risk and recession, what about bonds because bonds have been stronger, unlike last year. >> they have been. and default rates are still pretty low versus history. so i think they make for a pretty compelling argument you take a look at the two-year or even six-month, you can make a ladder there or look for something like agg that gives you a mix of investment-grade vehicles, it makes for a pretty compelling investment, at least essentially you've had none of your money in bonds for the entirety of two years. i think somewhere between 15 and 30% allocation makes sense given the yields >> 20 -- what did you say? the allocation, it's not 60/40 anymore. >> no, no, you don't go from

zero to 40 overnight starting to create a sfungs that m function that moves you towards that 60-40, 70 slrk 30 >> it makes sense. last year i bought my first treasury this inverted yield curve, what is that saying about inflation, and when will we get there i do think now we have positive rates, at least there on the ten-year which i know the fed wanted to get to positive rates. we're not there yet on the close end. but i had a little bit of money in one-year treasuries but i'm always long. i'm always long. i feel like that's the mandate i've got to look for things to be long. so looking for those, like i said, lower p/es >> vaelgss on retail when we come back, lights, camera, rally. will the rally keep rolling? more details ahead but first, a tough day in

the cloud. microsoft dropping after an analyst warning of some of the core cloud products. tus.n asmoy" whe"ft ne rern when you stay at a vrbo the host doesn't stay with you. because without privacy in your vacation home, it isn't really a vacation... ...is it? [birds chirping]

welcome back to "fast money. salesforce announcing it will cut up to 10% of its workforce ceo marc benioff saying the company added too many employees as demand surged during the pandemic investors cheering the budget cutting. crm up over 3.5% today, second best performance in the dow. bonawyn, you like that >> yeah. >> it's always perverse when wall street cheers layoffs, but here we are. >> thank you for clarifying. no, i'm not rooting for the layoffs, but from the lens of looking whether it's creative to interest company i think roughly going to be their cost savings per anni m. i think it makes a lot of sense. it's ev to sales, enterprise valley to ebitda if it's priced to book everything essentially has been slashed by half since 2021-2022. i think it starts to make for a compelling buy >> brent was on with jefferies

the sentiment on crm is so negative. >> yes. >> are you surprised it didn't rally more benioff back, hands on the steering wheel, brett taylor out? >> but that's not what they wanted it to be, though, right dan always talks about how many seats there are that are going to need crm products, right? and that has to be going down. so just -- there is sort of a good a example themselves. they're laying off 10% of their staff. and i think for all of these big tech companies, growth was the only thing to go after money was free spend whatever you want. and now that's no longer the case anymore so we're going to see this writ large. we've already started with microsoft is slowing alphabet also slowing hiring and even cutting some, and meta cutting 11,000 jobs. i think that's very good for the space because the growth isn't there. but you can still grow your earnings when you can slash your expenses >> preserve the margins. >> right. >> i think that's what they were trying to do today you mentioned microsoft.

microsoft moving in the other direction after a pretty bearish note today from ubs. analysts there downgrading the stock to neutral, citing decelerating demand in both its azure, cloud platform and office 365 software the stock having its worst day since october. guy, this one outperformed last year it still had a rough year, but it outperformed amazon >> well, most things i outperformed amazon, and i'm 59 years old with that said, microsoft, even with the sell-off today is still an expensive stock i don't think -- listen, it's a great company. i would submit it's one of the three most important companies in the world, but it doesn't mean it's not expensive. and even at these levels, it is probably trading either side of 25 times next year's earnings, declining. it's just a matter of time before they start to talk about demand destruction and when that happens, you'll find a tradeable bottom. but i think we're there yet, despite the outside move to the downside today >> it's so hard, dan, to figure

out how much demand is weakening for these i.t. services and spend when the covid hangover is still a real thing capacity expanded so much. demand expanded so much during covid. it feels like there is a lot of give-back, and it's hard to tell what the actual macchio signal is. >> i think the trend towards the secular shift towards the cloud, whether it be the public cloud or some of the software servicer, it's bottom left to the upper right. so we overshot during that we're going to come back to the trend for some of these guys like salesforce, like microsoft. and i just think the microsoft thing is really interesting today. at its lows today was down nearly 6%. this is a $1.7 trillion market cap company. and the fact that it's there on a downgrade from ubs this might be a very good analyst. he might be influential. we've been on the desk a long time we talk about upgrades, downgrades they generally don't move big stocks in a meaningful way to me what's interesting is the

signaling of this. going into today, 55 analysts who rate this stock, and 51 of them had buy ratings on them to see a stock down like this on a day when the nasdaq is green, where the s&p is green, this is pretty astounding to me. but to talk about the deceleration in azure and then office 365, these are real things, and they're not one quarter things we're going to continue to see some of these companies that were late to cut like salesforce, they're going to actually have to keep doing it, whether it's death by a thousand cops or make some big chops. i wouldn't be surprised to see amazon and coinbase and some of these other guys, meta who made big cuts that we thought were big come back and do them again if the economy does continue to weaken over the koufrs this year to me, this is a note. guy says this all the time bookmark this move in microsoft today because this may be the start of something as we get into q4 earnings >> but none of you are touching these cloud stocks >> i have -- alphabet is being

positioned, right. so embedded in there and then i have some amazon. so obviously that's as well. but i think that -- i guess i don't want to be in some of the what happens to other companies that supply these companies, right, to meet the -- i'm looking for tail of the dog so much because i feel like that effect will be even greater. data centers >> right and they've also been hit really hard already last year all right. there is still a lot more to come on "fast money. here's what's coming up next >> 50% rally from here one top analyst says you should bank on this financial stock we'll reveal the name ahead. believe it or not, pitchers and catchers are set to report in little over a month but we've got all the action for you right here your triple play trades on meta, miners, and marketplaces ahead you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. media stocks starting the new year with a strong rally warner brothers, discovery, and paramount global among the top s&p 500 gainers today. gains of more than 8%. netflix and walt disney also posting big games, and our parent company, come past up nearly 3%. still, this group has a long way to recover from where they were even just a month ago. dan, it sort of like buy the losers into the new year >> they got hit so hard late last year, when you think about it is there going to be some strategic m&a at some point? probably that's why paramount is rallying

the way it is. we talk about disney a little bit last week. it seems consensus that everyone wants to get behind bob iger, he is the turnaround there. i'm there. i hate that it is consensus. the stock acts really bad. it's had a couple of good days here i think you could probably take a poke at some of these names. the debt issues are a big one. and a lot of the m&a over the last few years was fueled by debt in this interest rate environment, maybe that's something to get a bit more bearish on some of the names, but they were beaten up so hard here i'd probably lean towards disney i still think disney probably takes a run at that pandemic low, near 80 the low 80s or so, which is not so far away. it's 91 bucks. >> but if you're worried about recession, earnings risk and the advertising market, which is highly cyclical, is that a problem or do you think it's already reflective >> i think the parks have done well if you think recession would hit the parks. disney is expensive. it deserves a premium multiple,

but they have debt paramount has debt if you look at warner brothers discovery, boy do they have debt that is not a delightful balance sheet. but i think -- i didn't see any particular reason why this whole group was up today there was no legislation, no anything i think it was just they got annihilated, as dan said so this very nice move in paramount takes them back to two weeks ago. so -- >> a long way to go. >> yeah. >> that was just a terrible trade last year. it's off to a better start i do think consolidation in the industry is on the horizon >> what about netflix in particular, guy? >> these are trades. and as tom petty said, even the losers, sara, get lucky sometimes. i should know. they report on january 19th. we've done a decent job with this 340 is the level we should trade up to. if you go back and look in april, its last crater down from 340 to 180 hatched in the middle

of frill i think that will be the level we stall at. and it will probably happen in earnings if you have the itemerity to trade, i think you do it the next couple of weeks >> what about you, bonawyn >> i don't think this was specific to media companies at all. tesla was down 15, 16% yesterday and up about 6 or 7% today i really think what you saw was much more of like a risk on rally. that may speak to maybe the point that i don't made earlier which is fund managers are underinvested. when you get these knee-jerk reactions where you start to see stocks outperform, and you're underowned we talk about the step function from zero to what might be, 30 or 40% along the way on bonds. and it's the same type of situation with stocks. when you're in cash, and when you're being compensated very handsomely to be there, you have to chase performance at some time and i just think that the risk is that we get out in front of and get overexposed and then

you're in a situation where you see the big spike because you have to get positioned to be protected on the downside. >> some chasing going on. >> a little one. >> so you asked the question before you said is it risky to be in stocks you asked that of bonawyn. thing is a really good question here, because you're kind of new to our program here. the show is called "fast money." >> would you rather? >> but sometimes it really is a matter of timelines. so when you think about, again are stocks risky here in an environment where rates where they are more so than they were a couple of years ago, no doubt about it but depending on your time horizon, for some of these great names, disney that has literally been cut more in half, could relative to what this new management might do, streaming after it's been totally discounted, after what the parks might do a year after the recession, all those sorts of things, then you start dollar cost average is that risky? you got to put money somewhere maybe you don't buy treasuries so i guess my point is risk is just a matter of time in my

opinion. near term, if you think that we're going to go back to the october lows of the s&p 500, then stocks are risky right here if you don't have a longer term. this is cash you need to pay rent or tuition or whatever the heck it is i just wanted to clarify that. >> so the question should have been is it -- are they risky over -- >> stocks are risky. i've been in the business for 25 years. i've seen a lot go to zero i've seen a lot get cut in half and never really recover, that sort of thing. stocks are risky that's one of the reasons why a lot of people invest in mutual funds and etfs and that sort of thing i think if you're watching the show, you like the action of the stocks and like the stories, the products, the people, you like the commentary. so that's my take. there. >> you go. >> i think it's a great point. >> i've done this show before you know >> you're busy you got the nyc. >> when we come back, one top analyst making a gold call on a big bank he predicts a 50% rally ahead. we'll be joined by mike mayo of wells fargo securities to reveal

the name and alibaba popping today. we'll break down the "options action" and the rest of the china trade straight ahead "fast money" will be back. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this.

young lady who was, you know, mid 30s, couple of kids, recently went through a divorce. she had a lot of questions when she came in. i watched my mother go through being a single mom. at the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself. and so once the client knew that she was heard. we were able to help her move forward. your client won't care how much you know until they know how much you care.

welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets today. stocks managing to snap a two-day losing streak, though it was a touch and go kind of market after the fed minutes the dow grabbing 133 points at the end. s&p and nasdaq up almost 1% apiece the cruise stocks carnival, royal caribbean all floating higher after carnival announced it is raising prices as sales begin on april 1 investors taking that as a good thing. oil price meanwhile seeing their biggest one-day decline since september on weaker global demand expectations. look at crude dropping more than 5%, settling at $72.84 a barrel. it's found five out of the past six trading days energy stocks managed to close higher on the day.

and then there are shares of the bake bank of america getting a boost after wells fargo naming it its top bank pick. the firm forecasting b of a stock will surge 55% over the next 12 months u.s. bancorp and pnc financial getting crowned runners up their shares having a winning day as well. mike mayo is behind that bullish call he is institutional investors number one large cap bank analyst for the past three years. welcome, mike. it's good to have you. >> thanks for having me. >> so why the big bullish call on bank of america >> well, bank of america is a microcosm of the broader banking industry, and it's really simple it's earnings equal revenues minus expenses minus credit costs. and bank of america's revenues are getting such a boost from these higher interest rates. three times more of a boost from higher interest rates than the average bank there is a 20% earnings tailwind that started in the third quarter that's about to flow through. and people are saying i'm not sure they're going to get that

tailwind the bear case is remarkably -- >> wrong >> off >> why do they get so much more of a tailwind off higher interest rates than a jp morgan or wells fargo >> bank of america has the stickiest deposits around. a trillion and a half really core deposits, operating deposits and something many people forget is that deposit fees are at a 40-year low. so to some degree you have a substitution effect of less fees and lower rates paid on deposits, and the other thing, it's all the noncash considerations for customers i mean, being in all these geographies with all these products with all this distribution, with online bill pay and automatic deposit. all the interactions that are at record levels, there is a convenience factor are you really going to move your $10,000 average balance to save $100 a year not so much. and so this is three decades in the making at bank of america to

create such a durable, sustainable deposit franchise that can withstand a period of higher rates and actually benefit. in fact, they've grown deposits equal to the sixth largest bank over the past several years. there is no merger announcement or anything. it was organic and now that spread is back. they finally get to monetize the value of those deposits. that's revenues. then you get to expense, and that's the tech revolution at banks which bank of america is just living every day, and they're keeping their expenses under control. and then lastly, credit costs. i mean, this is not the global financial crisis this is the opposite of it then it was like there is no fear and banks were shaky today there is tons of fear, and banks are resilient, and no bank has derisked more than bank of america in the last 10 to 15 years. we think their credit costs will be contained, their expenses will be under control at a time when the revenues grow in fact, the revenues should grow at a time they're likely to

reduce head cap through a hiring freeze >> mike, quickly, and again, maybe this is a bit too micro. but early in november the ten-year treasury yield was about 4.25 to its lows in december it went down to about 3.5. during that time bank of america really underperformed the broader group. it went down i'm talking about what you said, it should do better in a higher rate environment, right? when rates went down precipitously, the stock really underperformed many of its large cap peers. >> you know, it's remarkable look at bank of america's consensus estimates at the start of last year they haven't really changed. it was simply derating from 11 to 12 times earnings down to 8 times earnings on just fear, concern, you know -- >> we call it fud. >> even though it was 14, 15 years ago. so i think this year you get rerating at least back to where they were before and in fact, once you get through this recession, this is not in our estimated upside of

one-half to two-thirds of the stock this year, but when you get through and see the demonstrated resiliency of bank of america you could have a rating of above historical levels as you realize every dollar earnings has a lot less risk thank you, regulators, thank you, government for requiring banks to be safer. and for all the criticism that bank of america has gotten for leaving money on the table, you can talk to anyone who has worked at bank of america, they wouldn't let douse this deal or that deal, it's to their benefit in a time like now when you have slower economic growth >> so thanks for being on, first of all i always love you work i agree with you bank of america is my biggest bank position. but when you get to this upside of 50 plus percent, so you're getting there from net interest margin expansion without meaningful credit quality issues, but how much of that is the multiple expansion versus the earnings expansion and do you think other banks will also get a multiple expansion? >> yeah. we do think that bank of america

is the best example in the industry and i'd say roughly half to two-thirds of that would be a rerating, simply back to something closer. >> more like 10 or 11? >> exactly and the rest of it is good old earnings growth. i mean, talking about $10 billion in additional revenues $2 billion in additional credit calls. a billion of additional expenses that's a $7 billion of positive operating leverage that's fantastic some of the best in modern history. but that's -- look, u.s. bancorp and pnc are our other two favorites. we think they'll also have that good growth of revenues over expenses those are some of the best credit quality firms too u.s. bancorp has the best bond rating out there they earn money through every quarter. by the way, going back to bank of america, they had the lowest level of loan losses under the fed stress test, and pnc has always been a high quality bank.

during the global crisis, they had one of the best banks around the theme for bank of america, bank corp. we expect estimates go higher in contrast to some of the discussions you were having before we think the main street banking revenues continue to grow after fourth quarter we think that their expenses are under control, no ah-ha moment like elsewhere we think they're near best in quality. a rising tide can lift a lot of ships. >> mike mayo, thank you very much good to hear from you, especially on the big call today of wells fargo let's trade it guy, your thoughts >> i love zack's work, and you're going to say it's mike, not zack, and i'm going to nod my head, because that's what i do bank of america, i love this call if it gets to those levels, the metrics that i look price to book, price to tangle book, understanding those numbers

don't move dramatically, it's going to be expensive. i will say goldman sachs has been a name we've been on for quite some time. it's pulled back from 383. i think it's 345 now i think goldman sachs in earnings is probably a great trade on the long side >> we're already going to get into bank earnings, binonawyn, next friday. >> my how time flies. >> how about the call that estimates will go up in this environment? >> i think estimates around credit loss can go up. i'm not going to make an umbrella statement that estimates for the entire banking sector -- i think you look at a name like capital one, when you look at the underlying thesis of why he likes this particular sector, he is arguing the credit loss and contagion has been contained. when you look there, you're dealing with a lower end consumer i think that might be of concern. >> yeah. well, when we come back, alibaba, take a look, jumping 13% in today's trade we'll tell you why plus, one options trader thinks those outside games are not done yet then it is a trader triple play

meta, miners and etsy all big winners tonight, but which one should you pick for the year ahead? our traders willei iwh "fast money" returns

welcome back to "fast money. chinese e-commerce giant alibaba soaring, nearly 13%. best day since june after its affiliate group won regulatory approval to raid $1.5 billion for its consumer finance unit. alibaba is now up 65% since the october lows if you weren't in it already, guy, is it too late to catch this run >> october 24th to be act for context, the stock traded down 58 and change that day closed at 63 on about three times normal volume. we actually said on the show that night, here is your trading opportunity. on the long side it will probably trade either side of 90 bucks. it obviously overshot. so to answer now your question, yeah, i think it's a little late it doesn't mean it can't rally more here, but it will do a back and fill, because that's what we've seen at least five or six times since the all-time high on halloween of 2020, if memory serves >> the ant decision got a lot of investors excited on chinese

crackdown on tech which is always a wild card they need to stimulate their economy. they're coming out of this covid nightmare. are these -- are they good bets? >> i did have alibaba. i like the ant story going back to them. didn't work out. lost money you know what? i don't need to make it back where i lost it. i think that unknown of, you know, not just chinese economy, but u.s.-china relations and stocks in the u.s. is problematic for me soy don't own it, cheap as it is >> well, alibaba also seeing a huge amount of options activity today. mike khouw is joining us now with the action. hi, mike what did you see >> yeah, it was the fifth busiest single stock option today. it traded three times its average daily call volume, and the largest call options trade was the march 140-150 call spread we saw a buyer pay 83 cents a contract for 80,000 of those and outlay approximately a million bucks in premium traders are betting this rally can continue should be pointed

out they're risking a very small percentage of the current stock price. and it doesn't necessarily need to run through that 140 strike in the near term to see some profits. just need to see that rally continue near term >> got it. mike, thank you. for more "options action," be sure to tune in to if full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time still to come, a triple trader -- a trader triple play meta -- don't do this show that often. meta and etsy severely hit last year gold miners not doing nearly as badly. but could fortunes reverse themselves in 2023 we'll ask the traders. "fast money" back in two

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welcome back to "fast money. we are back with a trader triple play digging into three of today's big stock movers up first, meta jumping 2%. stifel naming the top pick, saying shares should rebound as privacy concerns ease. dan? >> maybe they ease if you took the name off the guy likes to play this game, you say this is one of the best looking charts in the entire market. if you look at it on a two-year

basis, looks like it's consolidating and looks like it's just going to explode i'd probably want to wait and see what the full year guidance is going to be in a couple of weeks. and on valuation and a whole host of metrics they can control like expenses, this could be a very unique story. we've talked about it a lot. i liked it after it imploded we bought it it had a big move. i'm out. i like it here-ish, but i'm waiting. >> the whole financial discipline as a game changer >> yeah, no, listen, that's what needed to happen and, you know, you think about where this stock bottomed in the covid -- the trough of covid and you think about how much it overshot to the downside so it stands to reason we probably should go take a look at where we bottomed out a couple of years ago. that would be 145. and i think that makes a lot of sense. to dan's point, i think they're reporting the last week of january, first week of february. so i think you can probably stay with this on the long side into earnings, probably pull the ripcord at that level, 145, sara >> all right next up, itsy popping 3% today

the e retailer getting upgraded to buy at needham. the firm forecasting a rebound for the beaten down pandemic darling, citing strong customer retention. i feel like the market can't figure out whether this is a pandemic stock. >> yes. >> or a secular growth it is amazon what do you do with that scene >> well, it's different in that -- the beauty of itsy, the fantastic business model is how asset-light it is. that's a great thing to be i do still think of it as a pandemic darling, but they always cite in all of their shareholder presentations this sticky customer, and how many times that customer comes back so there is something there. but at this multiple, over 30 times, i just feel like you're paying too much for it i love that asset light but not willing to pay 30 times. do >> you agree, bonawyn? >> i agree with karen. asset-light business, sticky customer case. the bullish argument is you've seen multiple compression, more

so than earnings compression but still, this company really struggled with that last release. and ultimately being i'd rather it than a producer of consumer goods. but you're still exposed to the consumer that's not really where i want to be in this cycle. >> yeah, through third party sellers i guess, asset light finally, the gold miners melting up surging more than 4% today the move coming as the underlying commodity settled its highest level in six months as bonawyn i think pointed out earlier, guy, you like the miners >> the icebreaker has been on this in a past life. you were a currency trader i was a commodity trader in a past life. and i will tell you that central banks have been buying gold in record amounts over the last year, and it's finally manifesting itself in the price of gold. but specifically now at some of these levered mining stocks. the short answer is i think we're just at the beginning of this move to the upside in gold mining stocks, sara. >> i think it's just dollar

weakness bonawyn, what do you think >> i couldn't agree more i really think this is a good hedge for your overall portfolio, and it's about time it's caught up >> all right good up next -- you guys are succinct yo falras mi uneurin tdecongp xt on "fast money." we'll be right back.

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it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn guy? >> a joy having you here at "fast money. goldman sachs, sara eisen. >> bonawyn >> you know what it's come under pressure a bit unh. i would start buying on weakness >> karen >> yes, thank you so much for being here we all wanted to chat with you during the break my final trade i'm going with mike mayo, who i love to see him on here. bank of america. >> all right 50% upside what do you think? >> that's good >> dan >> i've got a lot of time here it was fun with sara, right? it was "fast money." we laugh, we cry, we traded some stocks you know it's funny. that gold consideration really interesting, and guy has had a good call off the bottom here. i just wouldn't be chasing it right here i think your point about the dollar weakness, the dollar really feels like it wants to hold right here,ish.

>> that's a conversation for another day. thank you, all this was a blast thanks, everyone, for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it, "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job not just to entertain but teach you. call me or tweet me @jimcramer, let the bad times roll what can i say when salesforce