>> and maybe along with strongs jobs data is the lack of a fed meeting coming up. you have to wait -- >> you can't disprove the bear story along the way. that is right. >> well we'll see what the jobs report tolds tomorrow. we'll catch up again 24 hours from now and figure it all out "fast money" begins now. right now on "fast," a cloudy forecast for your money market cap losses for software stocks as the pandemic splurge keeps giving way to the slowdown cycle purge. what will it take to stop the slide. plus corona crushed. shares of beer and wine and spirits constellation falling down drunk today the details on how inflation and the supply chain impacted the beer brand and later and the good and the bad and the ugly our traders book back at their action there 2022. the hits and the misses and the ones that got away i'm sara eisen in tonight for

melissa lee. this is "fast money. a full house, tim, karen, dan and guy adami, and we'll start with the prejob sell-off on wall street a strong read on the labor market could prompt the fed to hold fast to the rate hike program. the dow shedding another 340 points and nasdaq down a percent and a half in the first three days of the year and the growthiest stocks were hartest hit. like sentinel one and crowd strike and as yields take a leg highir and it just adds to the pain they've felt over the last year sentinel one closing a hair off the low and crowdstrike at multi-year lows so is there any hope left or should you be running for the exits? dan? >> i think it is hard to run for the exits as far as around the valuation but also the growth opportunities. so when you talk about the pull

forward thatwe saw in a lot of those business models in 2020 and 2021, as soon as the fed started to tell us that they were going to raise interest rates, those stocks got absolutely creamed and they're going to continue to make lower lows, i think until investors have some sense that the rate cycle has peaked. so to me i think it is tough to chase some of the names that might have great secular stories but the valuations don't line up with where future growth expectations are in this rate environment and what what might be a global recession in 2023. >> i don't think you were going straight to this, but if you have a stock down 60% or 70%, people say i want to hang around to get a little bit back, when the environment we have over last couple of days is that fed fund futures terminal rate is creeping up and out. it is now out to july. it was at april and may and now it is 502 and 503.

if you looked at the high multiple tech stocks when you're saying i'm betting long-term and high growth and long duration that is not what the ten-year lets you do. so if you think rates are going higher, maybe you should get out of the stocks that have had a bad year and a half. if they're going down tomorrow, get out of them today. karen, i stole your line. >> and rates are maybe going up still but they are set to pause later this year. so if that happens, do you want to be in some of the growthry parts of the market? >> i guess if they start -- if they pause but i think this is a bit of a ways off you heard esther george this morning saying higher for longer, right. >> she's retiring. this jim bullard this afternoon said disinflationary year. >> and you have cash kari on the other side and the fed has tried to tell you, again and again, we have to beat inflation

and i don't see that as a short-term -- i mean that is a difficult thing to do so i think we're higher for longer. and so just as tim was saying, if you're underpinning is a lower interest rate, so you discount those future earnings that even if they do come will be worth less. so i just think you have to be in much lower p.e. stocks and the higher ones, even though they're down, they never should have been where -- when money was free, you could pay anything and that is what people did. they never should have been there. so they're down 60, it could be down another -- you know, 40, 80. >> are there any good valuations >> yeah, the point we were trying to make is the fed could stop tomorrow and the stocks are still expensive. rates will stay higher for longer because they've told us that the jobs or adp number made the jobs more difficult and you have other central banks around the world acting in kind and stocks

like salesforce saying yesterday's announcement, the stock should have been down 25%. it is still not cheap despite the move we've seen to the downside you could put snowflake on there. and i believe one of the three or four most important company have a two day move having sold off precipitously over the last year, that to me is not indicative of a market bottom. >> i will just say this, crowd strike is a great example of a stock down 70% from the all-time highs in 2021 and a strong secular story. cloud-based and cybersecurity and the whole thing but even at this valuation, it is 7.5 times sale, trading 47 times adjusted earnings on gaap basis, they're expecting 30% sales in growth. that is rosie. even with this the strong secular story. so we have to get into q4

earnings and see what companies are guiding for the current quarter and then what they are willing to guide for the balance of the year and i think that is when you start to think about valuations and even these companies down, until they give us a clearer picture of what the outlook looks like in 2023, i think it is hard because this stock was down 8%, 9% today and you could have easily said that this year-over-year is trading at a unique value and it is not. and crowdstrike off another 9% it was triggered by strong jobs numbers and we'll talk about it later in the show. and initial jobless claims were with the like a four-week low. and challenger layoffs came in better than expected so what does the fed do if the labor market is still so tight they're going to have to keep going. >> they're going higher for longer and there is no question that there is a lack of skilled workers out there. people are talking about this

dynamic is a very different structural labor market than in a while and the participation rate is significantly lower. so the fed's job is difficult. and the fed minutes, which they always seem like they're yesterday's news, because they are. but yesterday that was part of that move higher in the terminal rate there were some elements that we may soften up our approach to how aggressive the hikes are but there are no question we can't let the market, and they even said that, we can't let the market go soft on 2% inflation that is still the target so getting it back to the market, i also look at a bunch of those great discretionary stocks and i've waited for you to get on the desk to short nike today which is a company that i love i love nike and i've been long it but i think you have to look at that stock rallying 50% off the low that i know dan nibbled at which was over done on the down side and let's pat nike on the back, the best consumer discretionary

story out there should be 50% off of what -- >> you're short nike >> i am long in a couple of accounts i shorted tactically some nike today. >> why because i get the valuation argument because their inventory issues are clearing up. and it has a lot of exposure in china which is apparently going to get better here. >> first of all, i think you have to be a trader in this market and i'm looking at a stock rallying 15% off the bottom i'm committed to nike and i'm short it and think i could pick up 10% to 15% on the upside. i'm long starbucks at a 52-week high and trading at a multiple more expensive than last year. do i want to own that right here we need to get through some dynamic where eps gets revised downward i think stocks trading at yesterday's levels don't make sense with the rates where they are. >> we're talking about the growthier names but there is also the mega caps like a

microsoft and you mentioned ugly behavior microsoft and apple. christopheron was on saying they're gone from 25% to 18% that means there is room to go before you have a complete change in leadership is that the way you're looking at it, dan >> or guy? >> no, you go ahead. >> listen, we were all screaming up and down for a while in 2020 and 2021 early when that number was getting to 25% of the s&p 500 was over 40% of the nasdaq -- >> the top five. >> but then if you take the six or seven, it gets higher so i guess the point is, it is never been higher. we know that top ten are not the top ten in 20 years. you see the lists all of the time i just think that they will be in five years some of the biggest names that we have right now. i think microsoft and apple and amazon and google, i think they will be the top names here so to me i think those are the ones that i want to buy when i think things have capitulated to

some degree. >> is that now >> no, i used to come on your program and i would say -- to me i think that is how you want to be positioned. >> to be clear you're always welcome on ymy program guy on the other hand. >> are you familiar with carter braxton worth, right off the mayflower and he said you need to take out the generals, and he mentioned them, microsoft, google and facebook and the fact that we're seeing that now is not a bad thing, it is a good thing because it is suggesting that we're later in the game than a lot of people realize again, it doesn't mean they couldn't go lower. tim has talked about the potential for apple to get to be a teenager, 115 to 120 probably headed. but that is all healthy. you need to rerate things in this environment and by the way, 5% unemployment isn't a potential outcome, it is a desired outcome for the fed. which is somewhat nuances but it is important

it has to get around them for them to stop and we're not even remotely close right now. >> but the 10-year yield is 3.7. >> going lower. >> i don't know that it is going lower. >> but you're talking about higher rates. >> going lower because of the steep recession? >> rates around the world are going higher, why do our rates go lower do you think european rates are going lower? >> if you're worried about recession, then rates should go lower. >> but these are technical issues this is the $16 trillion negative yielding sovereign bond market that shouldn't be trading where it is. those yields have to go higher central bank s are moving money around the world, it is not going to crash at 5% but i don't think rates have to go to 3% because we're going to have a slower economy next year i know we will i don't think that takes ten years. >> and whether or not tim is right or i'm right, i don't think it matters because either

outcome is bearish on equities. >> we've seen that so the question we're asking has this drop in high growth valuations opened the door for takeovers in the software space. let's bring in brett sher mavrn from bank of america and he's on the all-star analyst list for software, 17 times in a row, rick and congrats on that what do you think? are we going to see more deals here because the valuations just keep going down? >> i think we'll see more activity and on the m&a side in 2023 2022 was a terrible year for the socks. we saw the high growth sass universe down about 65%, 70% and the multiples have come down from about 35 times to six times. so we've seen tremendous compression in valuation the good news is that downturns are ultimately followed by

upturns. so we just got a lot of cross currents and near term as tim and -- and guy were just discussing but we have a sector here with tremendous secular tail winds, the move to the cloud, digital transformation and a new computing staff, some of the demand may have pulled forward during the pandemic period and when rates were zero i think what we need to do is de-risk two trials in '23 numbers. and when we go through fourth quarter earnings, i think companies will indicate a reduction in force, they'll talk about cutting back on go-to market spending. i think this is all a very encouraging. we need to derisk the stocks people have to recognize that this is an economically sensitive sector the growth rates a year ago were 25% in this sector, forecast for the next year now they're at

17%. so i think investors understand that this group is economically sensitive. the growth rates, while still being double-digits, the growth rates will come down if we go into more challenging economic environment. so with that said, i think that ipo's continue to be more challenging. last year was the worst year in many, many years for ipos. there just weren't that many but for the companies that are continuing to show very robust growth, i think there will be an inclination to pick up the phone and have that m&a conversation where in the past it was probably little incentive to do that and there is an awful lot of dry powder out there private equity funds have $3.6 trillion waiting to go to work activision is at a very high level with valuations down and

volatility high. the investment grade bond market is functional, but the leverage finance market is not yet fully functional but as we get some stability i rates, that could finance a lot more m&a and lbo's so i think that m&a is likely to be something we see a lot less friction on, a lot less resistance into 2023. >> rick, it is karen, thanks for being on let me ask you about that dynamic. because you have prices down but for the acquirers, their currency is down and the cost of financing is higher. so is it private equity that will make the difference and do equity heavy deals how do you bridge that gap between the financing markets, the currency of their stocks versus the targets wanting a descent price. >> and the answer to that is right now the private companies,

you know, with the stocks down so much, who wants to tell at these distressed prices. and the buyers don't wan to have to pay an enormous premium so to bridge that gap, there are a couple of things that will have taken place that i think will reduce the friction there one is that these companies continue to grow at a very high rate so, you tend to grow into your multiple, not so much the mumt pell you're grow into your previous high water mark in dollar valuation. that was set in 2021 so if you're valued at $6 billion, why would you want to sell at $2 billion. so if you're growing at 50%, which a number of the private companies are, the passage of time alone gets your valuation higher another factor is that they're cutting costs and that is new to the sector and so investors feel

a little better about that the other factor is if rates were to stabilize or come down, we're at six times next year's revenues right now but if rates were to go from 3.7 or 8 on the ten-year to 3, 3 is closer to a 10 multiple than a 6 multiple. so you could get multiple expansion if the street became encouraged maybe we're turning the corner on rates which would help and lastly, you're going to pay a premium. so if you pay a 40% premium, which is fairly typical in the sector, you're probably getting closer to what those valuation levels used to be. so managements will be more inclined to consider selling than they might have over the past year. and i do think that with all of that cash on the sidelines, both corporate cash with strong balance sheets and all of that private equity money that we're

looking to see increased m&a as the environment improved. >> rick sherman. thank you very much for joining us >> thank you we have some breaking news right now in the latest speaker vote this is number ten elon moy with the details in washington. >> well we have reached a new milestone as kevin mccarthy is on track to lose his 10th bid for speaker of the house now that would break the record set back in 1923 the last time it took more ballots to elect a speaker of house was all the way back in 1859 which is more than 160 years ago. now one of mccarthy's top allies patrick mchenry does believe there is a light at end of the tunnel but they still have miles to go. so it seems likely that we would need at least another round of voting after this one is over. but as of now, the 10th round of voting for speaker of the house is likely to end with kevin mccarthy failing his bid once

more >> unbelievable. this is day three. just unbelievable. elon, thank you. in washington. coming up on the show, bed bath and bankrupt. the retailer warning it may go out of the business. is this the first domino to fall for the end of the meme trade. more on that next. and later, constellation brand shares falling flat today. what could raise this stock's spirits. well we have a lot of them today and we're just getting started on "fast money." we'll be right back. i'm a vegas hotel. i know what you're thinking - it's cool, i don't want anything too serious either. just a fun, spontaneous thing. i'm looking for someone who will let loose. dress up a little. see a show. order the steak and the lobster. some people say i'm excessive, but who cares. i'm just looking for a saturday to remember, and a sunday by the pool. think you can keep up? [finger-tapping]

if your work, works for your community, then you're on team earth. get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds.

business can happen anytime, anywhere. so help yours thrive and stay connected with the go to getrefunds.com to get started. comcast business complete connectivity solution. it's the largest, fastest, reliable network. advanced gig speed wifi. and cyberthreat protection. starting at just $49.99 a month. plus, you can save up to 60% a year when you add comcast business mobile. or, ask how to get up to a $750 prepaid card. complete connectivity. one solution, for wherever business takes you. comcast business. powering possibilities.

welcome back to "fast money. bed bath & beyond warning it is running out of cash fast it is looking at all strategic alternatives including restructuring its debt, seeking additional capital and selling assets to avoid bankruptcy but last year they worked with activist investor ryan cohen to make changes he later dumped his entire position in the stock sending shares dropping 40% back in august so is this the beginning of the end of the meme trade? or the beginning of the bankruptcy of the meme trades? >> i think it is a beginning of

the bankruptcy of some once you put the word out there, it is highly likely they will go bureaucrat sand any vendor has to be concerned and the debt is so much smarter than the equity right. so we have two different tranches of debt to look at. just conveys this. the first one is this is the most senior, this is the one we got, that is the wrong one the other one, can we get that one, is the most senior debt they have. so when things started to go south, you see it really took that big leg down when things were in trouble. but for months it has stayed there and it knows that there is a problem and bankruptcy is on the -- so we know that now, that bankruptcy is a likely outcome and yet this paper didn't move at all it already priced this in. the stock meanwhile has been all over the place the equity is just playing a different game they really should learn from the debt one other piece of debt, though, the timing of the bankruptcy was surprising let's look at that debt.

down a lot today they knew it would be bankrupt, because it was trading at 20 cents on the dollar. they knew that not quite yet and so they thought maybe we'll get more payments. there was a exchange offer but so i don't know if this thing survives it is hopefully an ongoing concern. it is a chapter 11 where they are able to restructure and bankruptcy in they could getri of bad leases and get rid of the debt and the debt holders will be equity holders and they could kill their equity. and the equity could be worth an actual zero. that is -- the market doesn't reflect it. >> unless it magically comes back. >> it could happen. >> or bring back covid >> but i'm looking at the chart on bed bath & beyond and it bottomed at 350 on april 3rd what happened in that entire period where once people were at home and the checks from government started rolling and

there was no sports to watch all of these trades follows the same pathway and they follow the pathway of hope and not fundamentals and think a lot of promotion and momentum that was dubious. and i just think bed bath & beyond business just like amc business in 2019 was imperilled and we have a revenue stream falling 20% a year. >> and interest rate are rises and there is no meme trade. >> and there is no meme trade. i talk about abc's of -- are amc and carvana. >> look at the debt. it is telling you it is not going to survive in this structure. as much as the machinations of what they've done with that ape and the stock, it is kind of crazy. >> what ape? >> i never seen anything like it anything to keep it afloat >> adam aaron, he has

embraced -- >> yes >> guy, did you want to shay something. sometimes i'm a participate and other times i'm a viewer and i just watched the three of you explain surrounding this trade >> he don't want to make any bankruptcy calls >> as long as they held the stocks and didn't sell them, by definition they couldn't go lower. and now they're learning that fundamentals do matter. >> and they were taking it to the man. there was a sense of kamikaze investing. it doesn't matter. i'm teaching someone a lesson. it is a difficult lesson. >> and they got taken to the wood shed by the men running the business >> of course. >> and i mean that sincerely. >> tim, you used the term promotion. all of the ceo's were very promotional and i'll throw another one in here, the mother

of all -- >> they just called. >> it is tesla and it is down 73% and still has a $300 billion market cap and i think their kae is promotional as well. >> here is what is coming up next. >> announcer: bad news for beers fans, shares of constellation gets blitzed today as higher costs hit the supply chain so is the last call on beverage stocks. plus deere in the headlights this stock that could signal danger ahead you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. ♪ ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt.

cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco. the hiring process used to be the death of me. but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪ if your company actually practices the values

that it posts about, then, yeah... you're on team earth. ga-a-a-ap! oh... hi. what's this, a hospital bill? mm-hmm. for 1,100 bucks? ga-a-a-ap! looks like your wallet may need a sling too. tell me about it. did that goat say "gap"? he's talking about expenses that health insurance doesn't cover. eh-ehh-eh! well i'm talking about the money aflac pays to help close that gap. aflac, huh? aflac! ga-a-a-ap! aflac! gap... uh-oh! that duck can motor! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at... aflac! ...dot com.

welcome back to "fast money. a buzz kill on constellation brands shares of the alcohol maker falling nearly 10% after saying supply chain costs and inflation ate into sales growth in its beer division in particular. the company also lowers earnings outlook for the year tim, you flagged the move. >> yeah, the beer guide was awful. at a time there is consolidation, some of this shouldn't be a surprise. and if you look at staples, sp the spirits companies, de aujyo could be more inflationary i don't think consolation has the same business in the beer business but the multiples don't make sense. i've been a long-term shareholder and i'm excited by this move because i was out of the stock and i think there is an opportunity here. but they talked about higher corporate costs and a lower spend and that is a recipe that i think a lot of other companies are facing especially if you get into discretionary trend so not a stock i think you're

jumping into tomorrow. a well run company and this is an opportunity. >> speaking of son sellation brands, jim cramer spaeaking to the ceo. you could catch that at the top of the hour. and befrom beer to backhoes. >> because i'm laughing, because i know a lot of people don't know that you have a deere -- you drive a deere on the weekends. >> my wife called it a lawn tractor. calling it a tractor. >> and nothing runs like a deere. and i know you're familiar with that phraseology but at the end of november when they reported and the stock traded up to 440, we said pull the rip court. now look at what is happening. i only mention that because a similar setup is happening and in its rival caterpillar if we pull up that chart, our crack staff doing that right now. but look at cat as well.

so people will point to the names as valuation and they're friendly and i get it. but if earnings get ratcheted back, they go from being very cheap to very expensive, very quickly. and you should get yourself a detractor. >> a tractor or a backhoe. >> i think a tractor it is safer. more of your speed. >> i'm from ohio we have tractors. when we come back, silver gate plunging. and an option trader is betting the bad dream is not over yet. we'll tell you the trade just ahead. and will tomorrow's number crush all hopes for a fed pivot. we'll drive into what the report could mean for you and your money next on "fast. >> get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app 'rba rhtft ts.wee ckig aerhi

welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets today. nasdaq and s&p and dow all falling more than 1% walgreens among the biggest losers today falling 6% on

disappointing earnings reporting shrinking demand for covid tests and vaccines and that contributed to falling sa sales. and merck climbing more than a percent after news of a trial collaboration on tumor treatments up 1.4%. and we're counting down to the december employment report expectations, the economy added 200,000 jobs last month. and that will be a slowdown for november but still healthy and things could slow further as layoffs grip the tech sector, amazon is cutting more than 18,000 workers, biggest cut ever so what will it mean for the fed? let's bring in joe levonne he's on the "fast" line. what do you expect tomorrow? >> a number around 200,000, probably something less than that the job market is certainly flowing. one of these months, i don't know if it is tomorrow, we'll get a week number because the housing markets is already in

recession. the index and leading economic indicator is down nearly 5% year-over-year and that is always associated with recession almost immediately and anecdotally we're seeing a lot of layoffs in tech which is another leading indicator of the economy. so to me it is a question of when the jobs turn negative. but it is coming >> and you see tech as a leading indicator of the economy >> yeah. >> because some people are wondering why it is not showing up it is a small percentage of the overall work force and we've still got a tight market. >> it is a small percentage, but the size doesn't matter because what matters is it is predictive of the future and all companies spend a lot on technology. that is what they plan in their capital budget and the year ahead. if the companies are laying off workers then clearly that inflow of order is slowing. you saw that yesterday, sara on tuesday with the isb

component in the indicators. so yes, even though tech may account for a very small share of the work force, it tells us a lot about where capex is going in the broader economy >> joe, it is tim. let's talk about your view on the fed's resolve. you're of the camp they're going to cave and this is a fed that overstayed the parry on the way up and everything they said, we just got fed minutes explain why you think they will cave faster than the market? >> they'll cave because, tim, they always cave you could talk about how inflation is high and 40 year and all of that stuff, but the reality is that market-based expectations and consumer-based expectations in inflation haven't moved and when we look at the last few cycles, we find that every time that the fed talks tough, the market sort of believes them for the most part and then when the fed pivots, everything happens much more fast in terms of the rate cuts and the fed has overdone it. look, they only got the funds rate barely above 2% back in '18

when the economy was dynamic i don't see it dynamic right now compared to then and if had a reverse by 75. well the funds rate that is about half of where we are now so this notion that somehow we'll stay up near 5% and keep it there, it is inconsistent and it is easy for the fed to be tough now and talk tough now because unemployment is 3.7. but when it goes up another 30, 40 basis points, history would say you're in a recession and it is too late and the fed will panic and they're be cutting. >> joe, you had that graphic or talking about tech and you also said that at some point in the not so distance future we'll have a print. when amazon added nearly a million jobs in the three years -- in 2021 and into 2022 that is coming to a theater year you. because that is a rounding error, that is just start.

>> but the issue is what it is a signal of going forward. and we think of everything in terms of flow and growth rates so next year the level of corporate profits will be close to a record but the equity market is assuming it will grow. if it is flat or falses slightly, that is what investors think -- and i don't think the nominal numbers and ratio matter, it is more of the direction of change. and how to come back to that, housing is in free-fall. we've had decline six quarters in a row home builder's sent. has fallen housing is only 3% of the economy but does it have a great factor in determining where the market goes? yes. and i think that is consistent with the other macro indicators i highlighted. >> joe, i'm going to push back because i like arguing with you. but also on the bearish thesis,

inflation is still at 7% they're not going to back off just because housing is weak and they get a little tick up on the unemployment rate if inflation is still so much higher. you know that the credibility on inflation and why volker was remembered for fighting inflation, they have to follow through with that. that is core to the federal reserve independence and credibility and they've already made a miss. so they don't want to make another miss and that is why everything that we hear from them is that we're not going to cut in '23 we have more work to do. we don't like the easing of financial conditions and inflation is too high. >> it is too high. and the fed is talking tough but the fed typically is a backward indicator of consensus expectations the markets, the slope of the yield curve, five year forward slop rates and long-term michigan inflation expectations, none of those metrics suggest there is any forward or future inflation problem. so my sense is that as inflation by the way continues to fall, i should have added that, maybe a bit sooner, but as inflation

falls and falls very quickly, relative to what the baseline is, in unemployment the fed will pivot to the unemployment rate and the fact that the unemployment rate is a leading indicator and the fed will backtrack and remind us, by the way, inflation is a lagging indicator. they're talking tough now. the issue is does the economy go into recession this year if it doesn't. then you're correct. if it does, you'll see the fed turn. >> joe, thank you very much. always good to have you. >> thank you >> smbc. guy, final word. >> i love when you argue with joe. i love joe but i will say, let's play it out and the fed does pivot all of the things that were inflationary a year ago will get back on their horse, specifically the commodity market in the form of crude oil and other things that is the thing. they think they got it beat but they don't because the commodity market is waiting in the wings. >> so you don't think that the

fed should blink >> no. >> no, no, for the first time in a long time, they're doing what their supposed to be doing. >> all right that is the nicest thing you've said about the fed ever. >> ever. >> coming up, the good and the bad and the ugly not the film our traders reveal the biggest wins and worst losses of 20222 and how they're changing things up for foorture. and this crypto bank is only the beginning after the 90% loss "fast money" is backn o. itw

welcome back to "fast money. with 2023 now in full swing, we thought it would be a good idea to look back at what works and what didn't for the traders and what they are learned from their mistakes cue the good, bad and the ugly >> karen, you were inspiration for this segment >> well i could do an entire 6:00 to 7:00 p.m. special and not gone through everything bad. but for whatever reason they have it, let's start with the good i think i was good on twitter. i shorted it the day that elon signed up the deal thinking le

try to get out of it that ended up, what happened and i covered earlier than i should have but that was a good way to be short. and then after he terminated, i thought let's go long because that merger agreement is so tight he's going to have to cut the price or pay them something. and that works short and long. >> that is impressive because he's hard to figure out. >> that was good the bad, oh, my god, i could go on forever but let's start with alphabet and why that was bad was because i'm in love with alphabet. right. so there is the emotion there. but also i have this idea that they'll come for the tech stocks and even though this one has a great balance sheet, a lot of cash flow, blah blah blah, but somehow this could be exempt from that. it doesn't matter f. they come for the tech stocks it is not except the ones that i own >> so what about ugly. >> there is a lot. but the one you're familiar

with, not that it was your fault, my fault entirely, kohl's i was so down on this management i thought they did a horrific job of trying to -- of kind of b.s.-ing shareholders and saying we're looking to do a deal i was so upset with them and not really thinking, they're not getting a deal done and i shouldn't be anywhere near this and it gave me so many chances and i thought that was really bad, that management team, they couldn't get it done even if they wanted and they didn't -- >> they have a new management team one appointed by the activist. would you bet it on now? >> no. i wouldn't bet on it now i'm out. i have to walk away from that one. >> dan, good bad and ugly, real quick. >> the good, i bought a bunch of tech stuff after they blew up on gaps it was a good trade on the short side in tesla, on the bad i had a bad trade in tesla on the short. i was too early. so you could have a good and a

bad going in the same way. and the ugly, and we say this all of the time, i had a lot of bad little trades to me that are ugly on short-term directional options in indexes usually and again i'm short dated ones like weekly so don't do these people, because they are ugly. >> there is a lesson there tim? >> apple was holding out and las vegas sands and we've talked about china. vegas sands was up despite that. >> what is the two week high today. >> the bad was uranium not that it is a terrible trade or how it is done. it is probably flat. but i've so much conviction about uranium and i still do and it hasn't worked for five years. there is a lot of uranium bulls out there and i think it was a bad trade despite it is still a great fundamental idea the ugly -- >> i knew it was -- >> it was cannabis it got worse last year and all i

could say, you make the most money when things go from terrible to just bad. >> and are you holding on? >> i look a etf and i believe the fund nltales were relying on washington and i don't think you're getting washington tomorrow but cannabis was ugly. >> guy, you don't have any bad or ugly? >> before the show started nancy our floor director who has been here forever said your hair is awful. it is really ugly so i'm using that as my ugly number one >> that is mean-spirited. >> she would never say that. >> that is not nancy >> maybe i heard her incorrectly. the good -- we did a decent job with big cap pharma. a couple of times we talked about tradeable bottoms in alibaba. and i think we did a good job of trading and again middle of june and the october. and the bad, alcoa, i was very

bullish in the beginning of the year it looks like a genius so many of the stocks have been cut in half since then citibank was too cheap on valuation. disastrous there were many other things and ugly, that dawn trade, they call them letters. >> acronyms. >> which i can't spell that either there is nothing good about the d and a and w and n. >> have you been trading alcoa since the 60s? >> that is an age joke on top of the hair joke. none of these make me feel good about myself on a wednesday night. >> i don't think your hair is ugly and i don't think nancy is. tube into "fast money" all next week for the traders 2023 acronym picks. a whole segment about it that is exciting coming up, think the chart of this ftx crypto bank couldn't look any worse ee disagrees and thinks there

isven more pain to come. "fast money" is back in two minutes. when you stay at a vrbo you always get the whole home because is it really a vacation home if you have to share a house with a host? ♪ only with vrbo

welcome back to "fast money. silver gate capital shares crashing after the crypto focus bank said customers withdraw more than $8 billion in the

fourth quarter the company which counts ftx as a customer, saw digital deposits slashed to less than $4 billion. the stock now down 90% from the all-time high and options traders are betting there is no -- >> small company and big options volumes more than six times the average daily option today puts out trading calls where the fed 10 puts and we saw 13,000 of those trading for $1.50 and they are betting more downside. 35% to the downside to be precise by february expiration >> on top of the big slide already. mike, thank you. karen you were active in silver gate. >> i was buying some january 11 puts, so buying the puts but i got long the preferred which also got hit hard. i think that will continue to pay and i think that the company will survive

so, it is a ashity rauj. >> turn in to "options action"s tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next, your final trades you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. hello, world. or is it goodbye? you know, it seems like hope and trust are in short supply. [clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or... [whistles] we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities.

create more equal opportunities. [clap] it's time for business to show its true worth. because it's not goodbye, world. it's hello, team earth. [clap]

when you stay at a vrbo the host doesn't stay with you. because without privacy in your vacation home, it isn't really a vacation... ...is it? [birds chirping] if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee. all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then work with professionals to assist your business with its forms and submit the application. go to getrefunds.com to learn more.

it is time for the final trade. around the horn. tim. >> great have you. let's go las vegas sands which was the l in my lif trade and ebbite dah covered and las vegas sands and more to go. >> karen, we were talking about the meme stocks. so another one in that group, amc, i'm long amc puts we'll see what happens with their new -- trying to authorize more shares but the fundamentals are crazy. >> got it. >> so i love this energy trade here and think crude is going to make some new lows and i think that low, i know you like the relative outperformance of the xle, i think it gives out in the next couple of months so i'm a seller. >> guy. >> if you're thinking about naming your company, don't have gate at the end of it.

it is just throwing that out there. you might want to think about that as you move forward is that correct? is that fair. >> it is good. >> great having you sayre a. >> look at valero today, dan >> i'm sorry >> valero. and i want to say congratulations to my best friend who had a baby. >> come on >> baby no doubt after -- congrats thank you guys my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to madmoney. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money of course my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. everybody keep