good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. welcome back >> thank you >> it is friday. let's look at u.s. equity futures. things are barely moving dow up 8 points. s&p futures up 2 nasdaq down 28 we have the jobs report coming up that's what traders are waiting to see if you have been watching treasury yields, you will see it looks like the 10-year treasury is at 3.733% 2-year treasury at 4.4%. yesterday was a down day down by more than 1% across the board. in washington, in the

meantime, the fight is not over. the house of representatives voted 11 times with no movement toward a winner in the speaker ra race kevin mccarthy and his colleagues remaining close to a deal they are looking at changes of how the congress would operate and including the ability to amend legislation. mccarthy struck a tone after the 11th vote failed >> no timeline we have progress we have members talking. i think we've got movement we'll see. >> house plans to return to the chamber at noon today. we wil matt gaetz is now the leader of the never kevin group. >> i rise to nominate donald

trump for the position of the speaker of the house and for all of the vitriol and the media and the left, there were great moments of bipartisanship under the trump presidency >> interestingly, this was a lesson for me. i don't know if you knew this. the constitution does not require the speaker be an elected member of the house. so far, it has been one. 6:30, policy expert dan clifton will tell us why this may be mccarthy's last chance at sp speakership. >> lee zeldin's name has been batted back and forth in the last month. >> i don't think you will find someone who is not an elected member of the house. >> it won't happen >> you know. it is an option. the other thing and we talked about this briefly with the two members of the problem solvers caucus on.

is there a point where mccarthy has given so much away that he loses so much of the moderate members? that's the key >> we are down to one person can ask -- one person can ask to unseat the speaker how will you ever get anything done >> right is this the wrong person if you are at that point -- >> andy biggs got 30 votes in november mccarthy has been stuck at 91% of the republican caucus 91 91%. democrats are included, too. have you ever heard of a body where you get 91% and that's not enough to where you assume the leadership position? i always thought he would prevail. these guys, because it will get to it, matt gaetz will never

vote for him i think perry will >> i think boebert >> four or five. one guy going for a medical appointment. he will not be there today another has a family matter. the dynamic changes on what number gets you there. we are at a point where he is giving so many concessions that if you don't do it now, you have a personal problem with kevin mccarthy i don't know if people are finally comfortable owning that. they are being so stubborn and it is about them and nothing about policy at that point, they start looking bad. maybe that's where it goes >> if you say i want committee chairmanship and 9% of the caucus holding the 91% hostage those people saying why should

you cave >> people can't get paid nothing is happening. >> the situation of extreme measures in california with the weather and if there is the need for federal funding, they can't get anything passed. there are real consequences. >> the market cap week things are too good. >> that means the fed will continue >> the fed will continue which we will see what this number today reveals. we are worried that too many people might be employed little bit worried that things might be making more money we're worried about that we may have to sell some stocks and stick our heads in the sand. the fed will take care of that new overnight -- it is january 6th, too it is a weird day. >> happy birthday. >> i hope some day that this january 6th is known for that

rain rather than what happened. the three wisemen come and bring gifts. it was an important day in christianity it has been suppolanted by this which some people say is worse than 9/11. if you think, sorkin, the universe doesn't have a sense of humor. was that my birthday present >> kate mckinnon her birthday >> sydney sorkin >> close two days ago i was looking at other famous folks. julie chen's birthday today. >> i'm right i think i'm right there with her, almost. can you find anybody better than that come on. no one there are good ones. normal readus. >> a birthday.

>> henry i've got another one eric trumgp. >> roan. >> who >> mr. bean. the actor. new overnight, samsung warning the quarterly profit tumbling to an eight-year low in a preliminary earnings statement. sorkin, bed bath & beyond. we can still go. they will not close it >> they will close some of them. >> samsung said that revenue likely fell 9% year offerver yer samsung said it saw weakness in the memory and smartphone businesses that stock closed higher on south korean trading. shares of wwe jumping after former ceo vince mcmahon

returned to the company and said he supports launching review of alternatives mcmahon has majority voting power of the wwe stock he told the company he is electing himself and two former directors to the board and intends to become executive chairman he stepped down in july of 2022 following disclosures by the wall street journal of payouts to women who alleged misconduct and infidelity the investigation was concluded in november and disbanded. the company said the payments made personally were booked as expenses because they benefitted the company. tesla now making the steepest price cut so far on the model 3 and model y cars in china after deliveries plunged in december. pr prices for the two models at the shanghai factory will be reduced

by 6% to 13% model 3 starts at $32,000. it is 30% cheaper than the same car price in the u.s that move coming amid stepped up competition in china byd rival delivered 911,000 cars last year. three times that of 2021 coming up, we have more coming up on "squawk box" this morning. countdown to the jobs report is on mark your calendar or set your clock. it will be here in an hour two and a half hours we will tell you what to expect from the employment numbers and what it could mean for the fed numbers. and ftc chair lina khan will join us to talk about the big p news proposal that she made yesterday that would limit the use of non-compete clauses by employers across the country it could have a huge impact on

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it's jobs friday forecasters expecting 200,000 jobs in december which is less than november. the fed is sticking with the tightening policy. this is the latest jobs report before the fed meets january

31st joining us to talk about the jobs report is roger ferguson. former vice chair of the federal reserve and cnbc contributor we have talked about the jobs numbers. i don't know what you are expecting, but i'm more interested in thhow you are thinking jay powell and the gang are thinking about this. i think we may have just lost mr. ferguson for a brief moment. we will try get him back. >> one issue is focusing on the wage component how much hourly earnings are up. adp was a big deal they broke it down and showed the people who are staying in the same jobs are going to see wage gains or seen wage gains of 7.5% it is more than 15% for people jumping jobs that is the strong jobs market >> let's not bury the lead what is the non compete thing?

>> we are talking to lina khan she runs the ftc she has a huge decision from yesterday. >> a have a friend with a non c. he tells me he can't go to a competing network. >> in the tv business? >> yes >> the contract says they can't go >> are you telling me -- are you telling me this person could now -- >> possibly. >> i don't know if it is for contracts negotiated separately. i think the more of what they are going after -- >> he will find out. >> we will find out. >> a hair salon, they have a contract >> there will be a 60-day period she can implement the rule i imagine you are right. chamber of commerce and others will come out and go to court to

try to block it. >> a good reason pto have it >> it is abused in circumstances. >> abused with rank-and-file people >> yes that is the true intent. you could argue that some of the contracts of companies are paying for the right to stop you from doing other work. a lot of these jobs, they are not paying you for the right >> they are not paying you much. it is a hair salon they say you have to sign this and you cannot work anywhere within a 25-mile radius. >> calm down >> tell your friend to tell ari. >> no, no, no. tell my friend okay >> roger ferguson, he has been loyal to cnbc. he is loyal to cnbc. you know, i'm glad to see he is here >> he will be here in a second. >> leveraging the arrangement. he will be on every tv network

roger, we were asking what you think jay powell or how the gang thinks about this number and really almost political palatability but unemployment has to rise before the fed is satisfied? >> well, first, thanks and happy birthday to mr. kernen >> thank you >> the way the fed looks at the number is one of many numbers. the general trend has been labor market is still very tight we saw that in the jolts number where the voluntary quits has gone up. openings has declined modestly initial claims is the same thing. this is a pattern of the strength of the labor market and demand side. like everyone else, they will

look at the wage number. the last number in november was disappointing for those hoping for a cooling. to the last question of how much unemployment is necessary? the most recent projections, they suggested the unemployment ri rate by the end of the year was 4.6% which means roughly 1 million unemployed people that is what they are projecting consistent with inflation closer to target. >> that is a lot of room to move between that number and now? >> absolutely. one of the reasons they will continue to raise rates is they are and they know they have to work to get things there the demand side labor market is strong that means raising rates by another 75 basis points and some are talking 100. >> i imagine you get lots of

phone calls from equity investors and other people in the market there are so many people who have such an optimism or such a hope they will not do this we've gone through the period with the market going up and expectation of they will not do it and realization they are. what do you tell them? >> i tell them exactly that. >> why does the view exist with the comments you make? >> it is the optimism over reality. i think the view exists is most people are not dealing with inflation with the fed focused on that mandate. many people in markets have grown up thinking if it is a little softness in the market, the fed will react to that because they are concerned about financial instability. i think they are dismissing the change and tone from the fed that's focus odd its legal

mandate toward price inflation and stability. i think the other thing folks are missing is the fed thinks there will be a softening or short recession as part of the tool kit to get inflation under control. i think most market participants don't believe the fed will go to the short and shallow recession to do its job. a bit of history and now understanding how the world has changed. >> i want to ask about stability. the banks are in better shape than they were the debt market has moved and shifted. it is different from ten years ago. so much is in private hands and arguably, that is a good thing we haven't seen that movie play out before what does that look like >> absolutely. there are signs of not

sufficient liquidity if you look at the rmb s market, there are signs of stress there. all of those are consistent with the moves that one has seen in interest rates it is all a story. remember, not looking for financial instability, but the fed is looking for tightening of financial conditions which means when that happens, there is probably withdraw of liquidity the final point is to some degree of absence of liquidity has to do with changes in regulation that's also playing through. this is all part of the theme of what it takes to get things under control and the fed taulkd about pain >> before i let you go, you mentioned the rmbs market what has you concerned >> what has me concerned there is the fed at some point is going to have to continue to let that run off

that market is the market that is related to the mortgage market we have seen instability in housing and mortgage markets i would keep an eye on it. it is not in the problematic terri territory. it is a market that affects individuals. >> roger ferguson. always good to see you hopefully you have a non-compete. thank you. >> thank you >> the mucch big slecelebrity. bir birthday after this reality show he is on, he may totally go. >> have you seen the reality

show >> yeah. that's not a good one. bad ending hot. >> okay. speechless for once. >> you know what happened? >> yes burned at the stake. >> for making a joke i think this is it >> if you are going to smoke when we come back, as the number of firms announcing job cuts keeps rising, we focus on leadership in times of layoffs specifically what managers need to do to keep employees focused and motivated. we have that story next. later, data points indicate the labor market remains tight jan kniffen is seeing signs from the retail sector which is a leading indicaincaoditor. he will join us and discuss at the bottom of the hour "squawk box" will be right back. . impossible odds, save the world. i'm done. what do you have for me? a new way to transform our agency.

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amazon and salesforce some of the latest to cut jobs after rapid hires the last several years. for every company lacying off, some need to keep their employees. we have sharon epperson with more >> the dramatic surge of cuts at the end of last year it was up 172% in the fourth quarter. the aftermath of layoff can be significant for those who lose jobs, but those who stay a new report shows 71% of s survivors say motivation has declined since the layoff. 61% say they have been overworked and 33% of those who survived layoffs, believe things

will worsen. to counter the negative sentiment, leaders need to state the near-term goals and plans clearly with frontline managers. >> they have to gear them up with the right message so they are empowered to have the conversation. is inn incons inconsistency. >> that is sam caucci. others we spoke to said leaders and managers should let employees know they understand the impact on the remaining work force. they have set priorities for what work must get down and seek input from employees about ways to get it done of course, economic conditions can change, but giving employees the signal when they are done with layoffs, because then people are waiting for the next

shoe to drop. >> that anis the problem your friends and colleagues have been let go and you have to pick up the workload. >> that is why it is important to provide support for people who are left behind because there is a psychological impact. let employees know if you offer a program that is available for psychological counselling. let them know there is professional development or skills training to take on new roles or skills that they did not have before. >> i would think this is a tricky thing to do in the job market which is strong when people can make more money switching jobs and going somewhere else that adds to the entire tricky balance. >> that is what managers need to realize. when this happens, the thing that goes up is the number of people quitting. the number of people retooling resume on the job to look for other tiopportunities. they are not sure this is the

company they want to work for. they think things can worsen they want to see what else is out there. it is important to boost morale. >> what happens when you are hiring in other positions like the quiet hire. >> it is very important to make sure you are up front about what skills are needed and whether you are expecting employees to go outside to get the skills on their own or if you are going to provide that for them and training being up front about what you are expecting them to do and how you are going to help them get there is going to be key to retaining employees. >> sharon, thank you >> absolutely. coming up, policy experts. political policy expert dan clifton says the negotiations could be kevin mccarthy's last chance to be speaker as we head to break, here is the s&p 500 winners and losers

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. so far, we have a mixed picture. dow futures up 35 points nasdaq indicated off 20 points we are waiting to see what happens with the job market. we want to talk about a call from citigroup they are cutting u.s. equity to underweight. they believe the estimates is too optimistic they are looking for a second half recession they think they are underweight with equities in u.s. and un underweight japan equities house will be at it again

today in the quest to vote for a speaker to get a speaker lawmakers are set to return to the chamber at noon. kevin mccarthy losing 11 straight votes he is negotiating with members who oppose him dan clifton is the head of policy research for strategic securities i don't know at this point, i still think mccarthy will be speaker i always thought that. a lot of other people thought it wasn't going to be him if you get 91% again and again and again -- who will get 100% if it is not him >> joe, first, good morning and happy new year i think we are coming to a real inflection point here this week. mccarthy's team have been negotiating with a number of objectors to try to reach a deal it seems everybody will have to make a decision.

we don't see the opposition. we see it broken into three core groups let's face it, there are four members who will never vote for mccarthy it is personal in nature there are two other parts of the group that are probably gettable one is very focused on budget reform they are trying to create a better process so there is not 4,000 page omnibus delivered to congress and told you have three days to vote which happened in december you are trying to create a better process you see room for negotiation on that i think that is what they are trying to get to if you get agreement today from those members, that is probably going to move about ten votes. that means he is still five votes short and that means he will have to have some other type of necesgotiation. we will have progress at some point today given the nature of the negotiations that happened

overnight. if intonot, the party has to th about moving on to a new direction. you are right on this. that is he has 200 plus votes. nobody else is close to that right now. he is really the one that has the most support in the caucus as long as that's true, he will be the favorite to come in and w work out a deal and negotiation. >> how much? i want to weigh in i'm wondering if anyone else would satisfy these guys there are some men and women that just like to watch the world burn >> joe, i absolutely agree if you look at some of the reforms that are proposed, one member could recall the speaker of the house if that is the case, you have endless votes to try to remove mccarthy or whoever is speaker rather than getting the work

done for congress. another is how many conservatives are going to be on the rules committee? i'm not opposed or advocating for anything, but i would argue if you have three or four of the opposition on the rules committee, it is hard to bring legislation to the floor i'm of the view that some of this is designed to shutdown the house for the next two years that's okay in most instances. when you have to raise the debt ceiling in mid summer, that is the full faith and credit of the united states. >> i said the same thing there's that, but then i think the outliers think nothing is going to happen. you have to have investigations. jim jordan is chomping at the bit. others are looking to make that happen you don't have to mention the

five things they want toing inves -- to investigate non of that is happening it is a weird dynamic. you have former president trump with mccarthy. you have our friend sean hannity. i'm watching on twitter. he is not far enough right any more sean hannity is not far enough right? suddenly he is a reasonable guy? >> the key is take the win you get reforms that you would not have gotten if you didn't have this fight. they seem to take the longer-term view the republicans could have gotten rid of irs funding and border security. this is what we are doing and they have not been able to do that i would argue that some negotiations that are discussed, at least overnight, was on the size of the budget the investigations would get and some of the opposition is arguing for a larger budget particularly in investigations in how the government is

suppressing voices on social media as well as how the irs is targeting conservatives in other areas. my sense is you probably will get policy and reforms out of here that could make the house function better and that is not a bad thing. it seems like they are pushing this a little bit too far. it is starting to look as almost if it is about their power rather than a better functioning house of representatives that is a risk for them. >> does it hit home for matt gaetz? no, it doesn't you are in the news for better reasons now than maybe previous news stories this is a step up from that. sooner or later, they would have to own some of this, but some of them don't care. people know my name now. 400 plus guys and this is their chance i have seen it before in hearings they get on the soap box

now they can do it they have done it 11 times so far. >> that is a challenge for governing. if they get this much press around this, wait until they hold up major bills. this is a precursor for the next two years in terms of what the house is if you told me there was a way to raise the debt ceiling from a financial market perspective, this is not that big of a deal outside that ultimately, we have to govern as a country and if there is an emergency, once historically once the fed fund rate goes positive, the fed is forced to have some sort of interest rate cut. we're getting to that point and there is some sort of emergency, you don't have a functioning house of representatives, that will be a problem for the markets later this year. >> dan, thank you. we always appreciate having you on we'll know by monday >> we may know today

i was told they will stay in through the weekend to resolve this monday is probably -- if we don't know by the weekend, we will move on to somebody else is my guess >> if there wasn't alcohol before -- >> there will be alcohol now >> can you bring in a flask? is marijuana legal in d.c. >> i don't know about that >> popcorn >> joe was saying, you bet if he was sitting there, he would do the same. >> i had a couple of cocktails watching this play out at home have you >> you haven't been a member of the house yet. i know this. >> on the bucket list. no, that's on the jerry seinfeld it begins with an "f." we have news out and some people have it on that list. after what happened last week. southwest airlines warning it

expects a net loss of q4 of 2022 it sees pre-tax negative impact of a range of $825 million that is a revenue loss of $425 million expected cancelling 16,700 flights over the last ten days. >> we knew they were dealing with something like this they had taken their time trying to figure it out i don't know if they have the same systems where they are doing it by hand trying to figure out the losses and the unknown is will there be fines. >> the question is the market anticipated this if you look right now. things are down 1% we will see if it moves. >> i like to know what is happening to bookings. are people continuing to book on southwest? how long do they have the black eye from the public relations point of view?

when do people go back >> you know my view. schedule p dominates and prices dominate i think it is a black eye. it is a little bit like when a store is hacked and you hear about privacy things hacked. what happens you go back to the store >> i don't know. in this situation, if you got burned, you lost your luggage with the christmas presents and never got to the destination and still awaiting return of the christmas presents. >> if you are one of the 16,700 flights? >> 100,000 people? >> easily, i think >> we'll see coming up, a lot more on "squawk box. the fda sets to decide on a new alzheimer's drug dr. scott gottlieb gives us his

take "squawk box" is coming right back

follow-up to the story we told you yesterday shares of bed, bath & beyond is plunging after they are planning to file for bankruptcy protection the company's market cap is now below $1$150 million you see that stock down another 20 cents which is a decline of 12%. >> was that a meme stock >> for a while brian cohen. >> how are the apes? >> take a look >> still killing it? >> put it up on the screen for people >> no, don't do that >> gamestop. >> doesn't take much to get the apes agitated. oh, killing it good if you bought it less than

that right? when we come back, jan kniffen will join us to flag kniffen will join us to flag interesting trends he has seeno. in the lab on oor market. "squawk box" will be right back. the smoothing benefits of retinol are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. girls... the chess club has gained an edge on our bake sales. we need more ways of connecting with customers, fast. i know some consultants with great ideas. can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech. that could really help us manage inventory. and save us a ton of dough. then let's take back our market share. checkmate, chess heads. girls, i said “bedtime”!

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today's jobs report comes amid signs of a tightening labor market economists are forecasting the rate to hold at 3.7% private payroll growth surged by 235,000 in december. that is well ahead of estimates. jobless claims are at a three-month low and the number

of job openings in november were higher than expectations that's not necessarily what's happening in the retail sector it's seeing loosening of conditions and it could an indication that wage inflation will fall faster than anticipated. jan kniffen is joining us now. this is counter thought at this point, counterintuitive to say that the retail industry is facing these things and that may be where the rest of the market is heading let's talk about your years in retail and what you're seeing now. >> it's just retailing, it's not rocket science six months ago, every retailer was saying i boosted 10% and i can't keep the place full of people four weeks ago when i heard somebody say things were easing, i thought it was a fluke after asking around, some of the retailers said, maybe it's temporary, but right now it seems like there are plenty of people willing to take starting level wage jobs and so much so

that we might be able to roll back that 10% premium to get them in the door that wasn't news they're $20 an hour jobs not $50 an hour jobs people say, that can't be why. there's 10 1/2 million jobs out there. there's only 6 1/2 million people looking labor participation isn't going up it could it's not nearly its 2019 levels. unemployment, less than 4% not the 5 or 6% that we need for job softening. maybe it is softening. and it's because retailers see the stuff before the numbers show it up and my guess it's just not showing up in the data. >> how much of this could be a seasonal issue this is the time of year -- >> this is not seasonal. >> explain >> six months ago it wasn't seasonal because there were building up for the season

a month ago when i first heard this, they were in the peak of having to have people in the stores so it could be seasonal going forward. but they also know that. when you talk to retailers, they know what they're doing on seasonal help. this is starting wages and being able to keep the place full. i don't think this is a seasonal issue. and the reason i think they're seeing it first is because as i tell you all the time for 20 years when i was in the business, every district called us and said what are you seeing in our business. just like they did every retailer why did they do that they knew we saw it happen first. so if retailers are starting to roll back wages, we could see an actual drop in wage inflation, not just a peak in wage inflation. nobody is expecting that at the fed. everyone thinks that inflation discretionary goods has thinks it's peaked, but they think wages are sticky and they'll fall slow.

so inflation rates will fall faster in goods than in wages. if wage inflation is about to hit an air pocket, the fed could get surprised by that and it's either telling us the recession is going to be deeper than people are thinking, or the fed might pivot when they think that this is happen i don't know which one of these is the truth i don't know if my data is any good because it's anecdotal from retailers. but that's how it starts when wages start to change up or down >> there are something like half of the states that have higher minimum wage laws that are rolling into effect as of this month. how does that kind of match up with what you're hearing too >> none of the people i talked to are paying minimum wage we're talking about 20 an hour jobs i don't think it's a minimum wage issue i don't think that's going to affect the starting wages in my kind of retail that may affect it in

restaurants and places like that, but it's not going to in these big broad line retailers. >> why do you think retailers are having an easier time to find people. >> because people are concerned and they've loaded up their credit cards and spent down a lot of that money they had, because they had record savings, and they're looking around now going, i'm going to have to work and that's my guess. it's just not showing up in the fed's numbers yet because it hasn't been going on long enough. >> thank you it's something you've been mentioning to me throughout the course of the week we'll see if we start to see any signs that reinforce that or contradict it. >> i'll keep watching for you. >> thank you coming up, the devastation we've seen in technology we're going to talk about the slide in tech stocks and the state of digital advertising with tim armstrong

we're counting down to the jobs report due at 8:30 a.m. eastern. it's already happening for december just did nemr.ovbe "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco.

♪ good morning it's jobs friday investors awaiting december jobs data could the numbers point to a possible recession we'll get a preview of what to watch. the house adjourned again without electing a speaker the voting process now lasting longer than any speaker vote since before the civil war we'll tell you where negotiations stand plus a focus on big tech, layoffs and ad spending in 2023. what investors should be watching as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures.

i still got 2 1/2 hours before the market is set to open and 1 and a half before the job report the dow will open 33 points higher a lot of this may move depending on what the numbers look like and how people read that in terms of what the fed may or may not want to do about it. ten-year note, 3.727 roger ferguson saying they're going to keep their foot on the neck of the economy. oil right now, $73.47 and then crypto at 16,731 dollars. >> and if you live in a cave, you -- or if you're just not paying attention anymore i don't know how long the attention span is for most people let's talk about what's going on in the house the house of representatives has

now voted 11 times -- they have these rules. can they just say, has anyon changed their vote and people go no do we have -- it's -- >> some of them have changed their vote to present or to trump or -- there have been some -- >> there's been no movement. 11 times they call that insanity, don't they, when you get the same outcome. no movement at this point. but this happened yesterday, reports say there is movement. kevin mccarthy and his opponents appear to be nearing a deal. the negotiations centered on committee appointments for the freedom caucuses and changes to how congress operates, including the ability to amend legislation and how and when lawmakers vote on spending bills. mccarthy struck a hopeful tone after the 11th vote failed. >> don't put any timeline on it.

we've got some progress going on, members talking, movement. so we'll see >> mccarthy said it's not how you start, it's how you finish the house plans to return to the chamber at noon today. we'll finish this -- matt gaetz who is a part of the never kevin group nominated former president donald trump for the position of house speaker. >> i rise to nominate donald trump for position of speaker and the house and for all of the vitriol we hear from the media and the le, there were great moments of bipartisan under the trump presidency. >> every speaker thus far has been a member of the house one thing we hear again and again is the $1.7 trillion omnibus. >> yes >> keep hearing about that

and i understand this to some extent remember w i don't know what's in it, but i back it 100%. people picked up on that because we put that video out. that is a strange sort of a stance it's got to get done, they wait until the very last minute if i was someone on the -- that wanted to do a lot of stuff that thinks that's the answer and there are people who think that the answer is to spend a lot of money and try to help where the government can help. i would do it that way that's the best way to do it but there are other people who think we already spent a lot just to do it without knowing -- you know what that also shows you, the power in the revolve that speaker pelosi had. >> right >> she didn't even -- she didn't make excuses she didn't even try to be defensive about it

we'll find out what's in it after we pass it and she got -- never did anyone go against her in her caucus i don't think they ever did. that was power what she had. >> there was some talk, the squad at the beginning tried to do the same thing. her concession was that she would not be the speaker for more than two terms and that she would hand it over after that because they wanted generational change but what the new holdouts are asking for of kevin mccarthy is so far and above beyond that the thing i keep coming back to, he's made so many concessions to them that it makes the speakership almost powerless let's talk about having 435 people having to governor and everyone saying it might be the perfect way. you do have to have some leadership and something put out there and you're thinking about the massive numbers. i agree there's too much pork. there's too many ways to put

things in for special interests. what you're seeing play out in the house is what takes place in these bills. the same things -- >> the beaches in delaware >> and you saw the same things happen with senators manchin and sinema when they were holding out. they would come around when they could get enough for what they thought was right for their constituencies. >> it's not pretty it's not ugly. it's worth shining a light and saying we need to be more careful and thoughtful on what we're spending. >> they can't compromise with each other how are they going to compromise ever with the other side. >> what do you make of the argument -- and there are people i believe in the gop who say, look, this is discourse. it's not supposed to be easy we should have people with all different views. the democrats were a cult, some people -- i'm just saying, that was the -- when you hear people

defend what's happening, that's what they say. i don't know where i stand on that. >> you can't give up the -- give up the good for the perfect. for the sake of the perfect. you're not going to get everything you want. >> reagan had a quote, if you got 80% -- something about how you don't call the -- i don't know he said something about, you got the 80% on the team. you don't say it's 20% of the rebels i saw it yesterday. >> don't let the perfect be an enemy. >> that's another one. i'll find it how are you ever going to get anywhere when you -- oh, no, i was going to say, there's an editorial today that says, these guys should take the win you have accomplished a lot of your goals take the win and move on before it really gets bad. >> we're going to take that win right now and go to frank holland who -- it's not the enemy of the perfect he is the perfect. here he is with the premarket

movers. >> happy friday. appreciate the compliment. we're going to start things off with tesla the ev maker is cutting prices on models sold and made in china following a steep drop in december deliveries. you got to remember, the dollar strengthen 5.5% compared to the korean and chinese currency over the last year. southwest shares are in the red this morning this is on the heels of their holiday travel debacle it's now warning to expect a net loss saying early estimates show the issues cost the company as much as $825 million when you factor in the increase in operating expenses, reimbursements to travelers and points given to their customers as compensation. more crypto fallout. silver gate down double digits,

down 13% this morning, following a downgrade by jp morgan it follows a 40% drop yesterday. you can see the steep drop right here the company saying it had a steep decline in digital asset deposits those dropped by more than $8 b $8 billion following that ftx collapse take a look at this one, we're seeing a change of leaderships in the markets in the first trading week of this year. the xlc, this is the atf that tracks the s&p communications sector i know it's only a couple days, up three and a third percent it covers the s&p energy sector, down 1.7% this is a reversal of what we saw in 2022 when energy was the leader right now it's pushed higher by disney and comcast all of them rallying more than 5% this week

back to you. >> okay. appreciate it. we're going to get to steve liesman. here's the quote the person who agrees with you 80% of the time is a friend and an ally not a 20% traitor. >> yeah. none of us agree on anything but i -- we have to find areas we do agree. but you two agree on everything. >> and we agree on everything. it's good. >> it's jobs friday. steve liesman joins us with a preview of the number. where are you now? that's a nice shot, steve? very sort of soft. >> i'm in new orleans, joe, at the american economic association annual meeting there's going to be thousand of economists and students behind me in the coming hours here. but, joe, i want to seal your sarcasm here in the upside down world where the big concern is inflation, the big worry with today's jobs report is that too many people are going to be employed once

again and once again there are reasons, guys to think of a number that surprises to the upside 200,000 on the top line payroll number, down from 263. we'll talk about that in a second unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% average hourly earnings, still high, though, but at 0.4% with the year on year going from 5% down from 5.1% average job growth has slowed over the past -- over this year, as there are now fewer jobs to fill and as the fed obviously is trying to slow the economy with aggressive rate hikes, tech layoffs could be showing up in the data this month and probably in the coming months the question is, how quickly these people find new work some find them quickly if the consensus is right and there are 200,000 new jobs, that's still around double the

population growth and the number has beaten the street's forecast every month since april by an average of 82,000. that is, we have been surprised quite a bit. and reasons for surprise this month, jolts showed a lot of job openings weekly jobless claims hasn't changed month and the ism manufacturing was down forecasting gets really hard at this time of year because you have the seasonal adjustments for holiday hiring and firing. it remains a source of concern at the fed that it's going to continue to drive inflation. i'm going to get a chance to ask that question with those questions right here to rafael bostic we have an exclusive interview with him today at 10:00 a.m. guys, joe? >> where would we first see cracks, do you think, steve? the -- is there any way that the adp is no indicative or all the other data we got, that it's not indicative of what this number

is today >> yeah, you know, joe, we have a very short history with the new adp calculations there's a lot of wearness of it. it has been lower than the forecast by about 100,000 or 50,000 jobs over the past four months so that could be a sign that things are going to be the upside today the number i'm looking at, joe, i'm really interested -- the second segment you had with jan kniffen. i got a note yesterday from a person laid off at meta said he had three job offers and a new job within a month salesforce dropping 10% of its workforce and 18,000 i'm going to be looking at this one segment to see how long people are spending on unemployment if there's a low amount of time that they're unemployed, it tells you the job market remains hot and people lose their job.

you might want to be happy about this i think there's a little bit of creative destruction in some of this you had overhiring during the pandemic with some of these companies and now they're going to places where they can't find workers. and so a little bit of loosening here could be a good thing >> are you going to be there tonight? do you get to spend some time there? >> one night here, that's right. any suggestions? >> music, gumbo. >> i went to acme oyster bar last night. >> oh. >> oyster bar. >> you got to go out music, gumbo, crawfish those tails. do you like those? it's a weird idea. >> eat through the city. it's amazing >> a fireside chat with him.

look at that background. all right. thanks, steve. we're going to have more on the jobs this morning with former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president trump, kevin hassett that will be later this morning. when we come back, tech stocks have been hit hard by lower ad spending and layoffs. we're going to break down the sector right after this break. the futures this morning, well, things are waiting to see what happens in about an hour and 15 minutes with that jobs report. dow futures up by 37, the nasdaq down by 37 the s&p off by just over a point. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. piper sandler naming google, pinterest, amazon and expedia top picks for 2023 the analysts are optimistic about search and youtube in 2023 pinterest has a price target of $30. amazon at $119 price target. expedia, $120. that's piper's top pick in travel we're going to talk to a former google guy i'm curious what you think the nasdaq 100 on pace for its fifth negative week in a row this extends a rough year for tech stocks which saw the nasdaq

100 decline 31%. joining us now to discuss the tech wreck, the state of digital advertising, tim armstrong, the former ceo of aol and a former google man >> good to see you happy birthday. >> thank you. >> what do you think is happening here >> i think, you know, the -- let me start with the ad market. i think the -- if you look at the ad market today, i think the digital economy has changed a lot. almost 70% of the total global ad market and i think the tech companies have benefitted greatly from advertising is projected to get to 75% by 2027 and, you know, i think we're in a place right now in tech where i think the early stage investors have -- and the nasdaq have gotten beaten down a little bit. but the reality is, there's probably never been a better time to invest and i said this last time i was on, a year and a half ago, i was on and i said i'm really nervous right now because valuations are so high

and i think people see this as tech wreck right now and i think it's tech opportunity. >> so you think the faang names which have been the ones that have been down, a lot of people say falling knife, still falling, i don't want to touch that, you're saying catch the knife now because it may not look like a knife in -- i don't know how long. >> well, i think this next year, maybe the first half of the year is disruptive. i think the second half of 2023 will probably be very strong and i think you have to go back to the customer acquisition. what people are paying for is how do you get more customers out of those tech engines and the reality is, those are the best place to get customer acquisition done. >> is it a less effective machine at this point if you have regulations that are coming from europe saying you can't do direct advertising, apple has changed its privacy. >> i'll give you a quick viewpoint. one is, it has gotten more expensive. i think regulations might make it more expensive over time, but at the -- >> less effective.

>> less effective. so i think it was more effective for some players for google, amazon and apple, it's going to get more effective. for the neighbors of the world, it's going to be more challenged and i think at the top of the funnel which has been dominated by some of those players, i think you're seeing disney come in who i think will be very strong in advertising, tiktok come in. there's pressure in all parts of the funeral, and this is the first year, you're starting to see the growth of the alternative tech companies and advertising. so i think tech companies will do well and i think real big winners are going to be amazon, apple and google, i think. based on the tech changes and the privacy changes. and then i think the experiencele economy will be a huge winner. when you look at events and television, people have discounted those areas as the tech funnel gets more challenged, we see the data from the metaverse to the earthverse. the sports leagues are doing

well in places like wme are doing superwell and i think that's where we see the benefit for customer acquisition and advertising in the future. >> i got a question about microsoft. because that's not a name that comes up in the advertising world. between their deal with netflix to provide the advertising and what you start to see -- i don't know if you've been focused on this chat tpt function, they have a deal with bing and with microsoft and i've always thought that that functionality, this is ai, it can write almost anything, could be the next sort of stage of advertising, like truly personalized advertising so that every ad independent is yours. if that's true, does microsoft all of a sudden become a huge player they have $11.7 billion in annual advertising which is double what snap has, for example. >> i think the -- microsoft is the dark horse in this they were in ads they got out of ads and now

they're back in it the real underlying thing in advertising that is going to change, advertising has been one of the industries that got affected from digital advertising and software, but not fully. but i think the chat will hit the creative community if i think if you go forward in advertising by five years, it will look more like a tesla factory than an old school factory. i think there will be a premium put on supercreative things, but the rote level stuff is going to get automated quickly. >> i have a separate question for you. i'm constantly now doing this all over the place but i wanted it to be even easier and better. we're using it now -- i don't know if you saw on our squaw pod. we're getting some nice subscription growth out of that. long term, what is the flow code world look like? >> well, one is, all the universes we just talked about with apple and google and facebook and those things, the most important thing that's happening in the economy for

brands -- >> here it is. it's up there, scan or listen. >> we provide all the direct to consumer stuff for cnbc. whether you're on cramer's newsletter or the podcast, we give you the chance to take your phone, directly connect and go to the exact point that you want to go to and i think from the future of where the market is going, you're going to have the faang companies but direct to consumer every human with this device is able to directly connect to any service and that's why flow code has been powerful. we put direct connections on every single media type in the world. and so your squawk listeners who if you put up a podcast, they have to find it, now they can start instantly listening to it. >> when is it going to be a time when someone will be watching tv and they'll get an nfc code or something, come through the air so it will be on the -- you won't have to do anything. >> yes, all of that is coming,

andrew you will -- today the internet is a grocery store where you have to go in and find all the ingredients you want to be successful, shopping, podcast, thing like that. in the future, the internet will look like uber eats where everything you can get directly and gets delivered to you, so the internet works on humans doing things it's going to get automatically delivered to you our business is build on ai, machine learning. >> when i think it, it will show up at my door eventually. >> close to it >> i think it will get to the point where the data is so good and we're seeing this where you will be able to get your services without any thought, thinking about it up front and all of that delivery will happen based on what you do, what you watch. >> oz pearlman on a phone. >> that could get a lot of -- >> the mentalist >> i'm not saying we could get a lot of people in a lot of

trouble. >> we've been able to drive a huge amount to you guys and i think that audience was sitting there for the last 10, 20 years, not being able to interact with you guys off of tv and now flow code makes your tv interactive and we're doing that for broadcasters, major sports networks, people like the ufc, nba, nhl, nfl, flow codes. we're really providing a direct access for audience and brands to connect and that will be a better way than -- >> it was a huge insight to figure outthe qr code thing an take it to the next level. thank you. nice to see you. when we come back, kevin hassett will join us but next, the irs is boosting the gift tax exception and it means big changes for taxpayers. robert frank is here with a preview. >> it's going to be a great year to give it away if you are

wealthy. you can give up to $26 million to family members without paying any gift or state tax. we're going to take a look at what those changes mean for your money and federal tax revenue coming up after the break. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what two u.s. states border eight other states the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues a hospital bill for me? mm-hmm. for $1,200? ga-a-a-ap! did you say "gap"? yeah, he did. he's talking about expenses that health insurance doesn't cover. ga-a-a-ap! uh-uh. aflac! that's why there's aflac. it pays you money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? don't tell me he high stepping. af-lac, af-lac! he stole my move! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at... aflac! ...dot com.

>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what two u.s. states border eight other states the answer -- missouri and tennessee. welcome back to "squawk box. wealthy americans are able to give their heirs more money tax-free robert frank joins us with that story this morning robert >> good morning, andrew. every year the irs adjusts the state gift tax this year, like everything else, it's one of the biggest in decades. the exclusion goes from 12 to 13 million for individuals, for couples it goes from 24 to $26 million. that means the states under $26 million don't owe any estate

taxes and it means couples can give up to $26 million to family members during their life time-outs without owing any tax. a dozen states impose a state tax. new york's goes from 6.1 to $6.6 million the result of all of this is that fewer americans will pay the estate tax which has been in rapid decline. 20 year's ago, 52,000 estates paid the tax in 2020 it was just 1300 revenue down from 24 billion in 2000 to just 9 billion even as the wealth of the top 1% has has risen. it means that 0.04% of the population actually pays it. they're advising their clients to make full use of this exclusion in the next few years because it is scheduled to expire at the end of 2025 as

part of the 2017 tax changes so give it away is what they're saying. >> give it away. >> wow >> robert, thank you >> more money, more money. >> flea. a bad nickname >> thanks, robert. >> thank you, guys. still to come this morning, the threat of wage inflation we will talk to kevin hassett about the fed's inflation battle and today's jobs report. plus the fda is set to decide today whether to approve a new alzheimer's drug we'll talk to dr. scott gottlieb for the latest on this stay tuned, you're watching quk x"ndhiisnbc. i don't accept this. i can't do this anymore. impossible odds, save the world.

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the december jobs report is due out in one hour and it could be a market mover. if it shows strong hiring and wage growth. joining us right now is kevin hassett who served under former president trump and is a hoover distinguished visiting fellow. let's talk this through. this is the big concern. if the wage inflation continues, that that is going to be something that pushes the fed to

continue to raise rates to try and fight the inflation. where do you think we stand right now? how big of a problem is this >> i think there's a pretty high risk of a big surprise on the upside today if i look back at the third quarter, there are a whole bunch of things that surprised me in markets that involved a lot of strength in the economy. and so a strong jobs report with strong wage growth is going to put a lot of pressure on the fed to keep hiking rates at a higher rate than they've currently signaled and so i think that if you combine that on the upside with the fact that on the downside in terms of taking pressure off the fed, we've had positive inflation reports than, you know, i think the only safe bet is being long volatility there's positive news on inflation, but the economy seems to be overheating all of a sudden and that's going to put a lot of pressure on the fed i think today we're likely to see more signs of the overheating part which is going to be probably a positive for

interest rates levels, not a positive for bonds. >> what number on average hourly earnings would concern you i think last month was a hotter than expected, 0.6%. >> i think that something that stays right about there is something that will have a big effect it's something -- excuse me, it's something that's important to lay out to the people who don't do economicsfor a living what happens when prices start to go down is that they go down to wage inflation. price inflation goes down to wage inflation and then it kind of stays there it firms lower prices below that than wages are up higher than prices and they lose money and so what has to happen for inflation to go back to two is prices and wages have to kind of march down together. usually the way that happens is, you get higher unemployment and that eases off the wage inflation. but there's only two scenarios this year, really one is that prices go below wages in which case, earnings go way off for equities, and the other is they go together and, you know, if they go together, then there's a happy ending

but my view is that we're going to see some pretty bad earning shocks if we win the inflation battle and if we don't win the inflation battle, the fed is going to have to hike a lot more i'm nervous about the equity outlook for 2023 >> i guess what's different this time of around is the strength of the labor market. there's just so much demand for workers and not enough to be found. >> right, and don't forget that it's kind of like the real wage that's the cost of the firm, keeping the person around which is the wage after inflation. since prices have gone up more than wages over the last year, then what that means is it's actually cheaper to keep your workers around and that's why we haven't seen layoffs and so what the fed is hoping to do is push price inflation down and wage inflation down and get everything sort of headed in the right direction and then sort of hold off and hope the momentum continues and i think today's jobs report is going to be one of the crucial things that we look at, like maybe even looking back at economic history, because we had this strength in

the fourth quarter and inflation going down at the same time. i guess the question is, does the strength continue or not if we get a weak report, it's much more consistent with the inflation signals we're seeing and that would be i think cause for a massive celebration on wall street today. >> we had jan kniffen on in the last hour and he's been talking to retailers and every retailer he has spoken with has told him that they are not having to pay more above minimum wage in terms of the average starting price that they'll pay people at the retail front a month ago, that rolled over. they used to have to be paying 10% above what they wanted to be paying that that's come back down and some of them are thinking if this continues, they can roll back their starting wages. these are jobs that are above minimum wage you're talking probably $20 an hour what does that tell you? he's convinced that this is potentially a sign of what's to come with the rest of the economy. >> it's not just anecdotal

one of the things we'll see if the fed is successful is thing like that, things like the salesforce layoffs 10% of the workforce, really one of the top few most successful companies in the country those are the kind of things that suggest that we are getting towards a landing, soft or not but, again, there are other things that are way stronger than i expected and this jobs report is going to net all that stuff out and it will be really, really interesting to see where it turns out i guess my vote looking at the latest data is that it's going to surprise on the upside. >> there was interesting data that came from theadp numbers earlier this week. steve liesman pointed them out it said that workers who were staying in their jobs saw increases of about 7.5% in wage. if you change jobs, you were looking at more like a 15, 15%-plus increase in wages i guess that speaks to your point of keeping the workers you have and not letting people get

chased out the door. >> right, and that's been a very common pattern for the last few years really that's why there are some feds that put out a wage tracker that looks at people who are changers and people who stay in their job. but it's definitely the case that people who switch jobs are the people who see the biggest wages and since most americans don't switch jobs, then it means that for most americans, inflation has been a big negative over the last year because the wages numbers that we look at include both switchers and not switchers. and i think this goes back to, like, a political point. ronald reagan's only economic point when he ran for president was the first time was inflation is making your life worse. and i think that's true for the majority of americans right now. and that means that, you know, if it stays like this, it's going to become a serious political issue going into the next election. but if the fed has a victory, it might be good for incumbents they'll think, oh, we had this problem but they fixed it. honestly, i thought i completely

understood what was going on in the economy four months ago, but all of a sudden we had this booming fourth quarter and inflation going down i'm befuddled and excited to see today's number. >> kevin, thank you so much. >> thanks, good to see you. >> you too. coming up, the fda is set today on whether to approve a new alzheimer's drug a look at this morning's winners and losers in the s&p 500. isckig aeroming ba rhtft th business unlimited. it is just right for my little business. (woman 2) we switched, too. (woman 1) unlimited premium data, unlimited hotspot data. my point of sale is on point. (woman 2) you know it's from the most reliable 5g network in america? (woman 1) you know you can get up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost? (vo) when it comes to your business, not all bars are created equal. so switch to verizon, the most reliable 5g network in america, and get the unlimited plan that your business deserves. on the network america relies on.

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welcome back to "squawk box. the fda set to decide today whether to approve a new alzheimer's drug this one also from biogen.

a previous alzheimer's drug from those companies flopped last year but this appears different meg, what's the latest >> good morning, andrew. you can kind of see the odyssey that biogen has gone through with its alzheimer's drugs if you look at a two-year chart of its stock price, it was in june of 2021 that it got that surprise approval for its previously alzheimer's drug. and you can see that huge pop there in june. folks weren't expecting the approval that they got after that, everything literally starts to go downhill. they priced it at $56,000 a year there were a lot of disagreements over the clinical data and they refused to cover the drug expect in specific clinical trials this job which has partnered with has much different picture, positive phase three data in terms of the slowing of the alzheimer's symptoms the slowing of the decline in cognition. the price is expected to be

lower. we will find that out if and when it is approved today. similar side effects in terms of brain swelling and bleeding which are concerning folks say that it appears to be less with this drug than with the previous one rbc saying that biogen stock can go above 300 today if it gets accelerated approval maybe down 5 to 10%. they estimate this drug is a $9 billion global peak sales opportunity for the companies. but, of course, there's a long shadow over this, guys you did see biogen stock go up quite a bit in september on the positive results we'll see what happens today from the fda >> thank you for that. >> scott gottlieb joining us for more, current board member of pfizer we've spoken about this in the past, scott. and the prospects in whether we have proof of -- of the

mechanism of this drug you were certainly, i think, positive -- or at least cautiously optimistic that we may have figured out some mechanism that might work on what's been impossible to deal with in the past. mechanism that might work on what's been impossible to deal with in the past, do you have more insight into that now, a good feel that this is attacking or dealing with the root cause of alzheimer's. >> well, maybe not the root cause but it's certainly having an impact of slowing cognitive decline. as you said, we proceeded on a theory that the plaque build up in people with alzheimer's in decline cognitive function in people with disease, we don't know if that's causing the

disease itself or the symptom of the disease, by product of the biological process we didn't have very good clinical data to remove the plaque with this kind of drug. now we have that, this was a very large trial, 1800 patients conducted over 18 months, showed a 20% improvement or slowing in cognitive decline and loss of function in patients with alzheimer's and we have data from a similar drug that shows a ben ben benefit. the challenge is going to most medicare beneficiaries probably aren't going to get access to this until 2025, they don't want to pay for this while it's under accelerated approval this drug from biogen could get

full approval in 2024. you're looking at 2025 potentially until medicare beneficiaries can get access to these drugs that's going to weigh on people today if this does get approval by the fda today. >> the nuts and bolts take prec precedent. i'm trying to figure out the theoretical part of it science is tough, you got to do, make a lot of hype thesis. we have to repeat that over and over again, if you did remove plaque and you did see a slowing of the cognitive decline can the conclusion that you draw from that is that it has something to

do with what's happening with alzheimer's patients, a result of some other mechanism, you can't go too far with it but this is the first time that the proof that ait's important was demonstrate zbld yeah, i think you nailed it. this still doesn't prove that the process of the deposition of the plaque in the brain is driving the disease forward it could be a by-product of the disease's process. it's going to lead to an improvement in cognitive function this was a 20% improvement in the decline, the lily drug showed a more robust impact in slowing cognitive decline.

able to take care of yourself, and drive if you're a patient with alzheimer's disease but i think in terms of the biology, you're right, this doesn't establish that the deposition of the plaque is causing thedisease it's likely there's another process, an underlining process and it's a function of that process but it does establish clinically by removing those plaques you'll have an impact on function >> scott, it's interesting how you just described that just the 20% improvement in decline, you think of cancer drugs this extend life by two months, four months, six months, it's years that can turn into, years of better living for these people >> absolutely, i think that's a fair statement that if you can slow cognitive decline by up

30%, the phase 2 data from eli lily that could be literally years spent in a state where you can care for yourself, drive and have a better quality of life. cost savings to the healthcare system but highly meaningful for the patient as well. >> if something was more effective than removing the plaque could you get better than 20%, is that the problem, it only removes -- it removes some of the plaque, are we saying it's only 20%, that's the best you can do or removing 20% of the plaque, you know what i mean could you make this better in terms of removing the plaque and expecting even more positive results? >> yes, so, look, there was a drug by roche that didn't show an impact on slowing cognitive

decline, that didn't remove plaque as robustly as these drugs did, the lily is more robust basing that on a phase 2 readout. hard to make comparisons directly there are risks associated with these drugs. some developed brain swelling, pleads in the brain, maybe the case that as you develop drugs that are more robust also increases the risks so it's unclear. there may be a threshold you're going to get the clinical impacts. >> premature senility or dementia, not alzheimer's but manifests itself in the same way, it happens without the plaque buildup, something else is going on if. >> lot of people have mixed dementia, alzheimer's component but they have salas collar disease that creates the

dementia and a lot of people have dementia from vascular disease as well, not everyone has the plaque, it requires a p.e.t. scan in some cases. it's going to make diagnosis hard they'll have to reconsider their coverage decision based on this new data. >> all right, covid-free scott gottlieb reports coming up, we're just over an half hour away from the december jobs report, we'll bring you those numbers and the instant analysis as soon as the numbers cross. right nothe w dow is up by 24, s&p is down fractionally

you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

good morning 30 minutes and counting now until the december jobs report, the fed watching the data closely, we'll have the instant market reaction and analysis meanwhile the federal trade commission wants companies to stop using noncompete clauses with employees we'll speak live with the ftc

chair this morning and republicans' quest to choose a speaker of the house goes on and on and on and on california's kevin mccarthy has now failed 11 times to secure enough votes details ahead as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box." here on cnbc i'm joe kirwan along with becky quick and andrew, you're in different studio, in studio b, you have a big interview coming up that could be ground-breaking about noncompetes.

>> i got this friend who's locked into something and this could change everything. i'm kidding. >> u.s. equities futures have moderated, who's going to step in ahead of this at 8:30 with everyone saying, given the same of the data we've seen this week the jobs number, oh no, could be better than expected, we could be doing better economically than the markets think, the horror of all horrors, wages might be going up and a lot of people might be employed but that means, obviously the fed has to maybe go higher and for longer and hence the red we've been seeing for it used to be 12 months and now it's 12 months and a week we've been seeing some red the dow is up 3, the nasdaq down about 32 treasuries -- we watched it go

down yesterday with steve's report, interview with kansas city outgoing fed president george andrew. meantime, right to our first big interview of the morning the ftc ro posing a rule that would ban employers fromhaving employees sign noncompete agreements president biden spoke about the proposal during a cabinet meeting yesterday. >> it's one thing to say, you can't work inside, in a technology company on a special project with scientific consequences and move to another company with noncompete. another thing to say you can't go from subway to jimmy john's

for a pay raise. >> joining us right now is the ftc chair. this is a huge proposal and would have a big impact both on the amount of money that people make and really society at large speak to sort of what it means and how you got here because there's a loft questions about what could happen and also the kind of legal challenges that may come >> so noncompete clauses today govern around 1 in 5 u.s. workers, today they proliferated across sectors and across income levels, we're talking about nurses and fast-food workers, janitors, but also physicians and engineers and we've seen that in the aggregate these clauses can really restrict competition both in labor markets but also in product

markets, our economists calculated that american workers are earning ing $300 billion on whole less >> some states have blocked these before, these are at the federal level, it's just a proposal at the moment, 60 days now for folks to comment, the chamber of commerce already came out and said they're against this and plan to take legal action. >> again, we think this is going to be a huge boon to the economy, i think the american experiment is built on open markets and free competition >> so, i don't want to say there are two kind of workers in america, but is this aimed, as the president said, the nurses, the hairdresses, folks who are taking jobs, they're not getting paid extras for these

noncompetes, if you will, lot of folks who are bankers on wall street who follow us, or by the way, i'm in the tv business we have contract i can't go off to abc and cbs tomorrow, does it impact everyone at this stage it would impact everybody with the exception of buying or selling a business in employment contracts it's across the board there are a couple of reasons for that, i think you're right in the low-wage context where there aren't sensitive information that companies are trying to protect these are the most difficult to justify. where you see wages depressed. we see wages depress to not only for people who are directly subject to noncompetes even for workers who are not. if one worker is locked into a job there's one less job for

someone. tech workers for example or those in finance, these types of restrictions are basically depriving the market of new ideas and innovation, because people are locked in >> the critique of this would to say, there's a free market tandem employer is paying for the privilege for the noncompete meaning, people can agree to contracts and one of the terms may well be i'll pay you extra or whatever you think is appropriate so you don't go off and work for my competitor tomorrow. >> yeah, in theory we've seen that people suggest that there's that premium, we don't always see that in practice, sometimer. on net this could be bad for

competition in ways we should be concerned about regardless at the ftc sometimes we hear from founders who were able to secure capital, enter a market, build the factory but at the end of the day they weren't able to build to scale because the talent was locked up and when you hook at states like california that for decades rendered noncompetes nonenforceable, a huge boon to innovation. >> what about the idea of trade secrets, people have a view of engineers or others who have trade secrets, they know stuff you don't want them to go across the street and take the trade secrets themselves or adjacent knowledge in the immediate term, you know what, even if they don't tell the other employer exactly -- they know too much and that has value at least in

the first six months to a year out from that job so we want to hold you away from having that happen for some period of time or what have you. >> it's a reasonable concern at this stage we've seen there are alternative tools to noncompetes that you can use to project legitimate trade ideas we have trade secrets law, employers bring lawsuits -- >> that's after the fact, typically after somebody has arguably taken a trade secret and used it and so the employer has been quote/unquote, injured, one reason they have these noncompetes is to prevent even getting into a position where they have to show injury first, right? >> that's right. we have also seen people break

noncompetes. they go away but at this state, alternative mechanisms that will still protect legitimate trade secrets. >> what do you say to those who the ftc doesn't have the authority to put this rule into place, this section 5, doesn't really allow for this, ever got to the supreme court, especially given the politics of how you think about the supreme court today that this is dead in the water before it starts. >> look, congress gave the ftc the authority to check we're confident that the text and structure of the ftc act gives us clear authority to do this. >> proposed rules, they had a comment period and you haven't enacted those rules.

>> that's a great question this is proposed rule. we'll be collecting comments for 60 days. the proposed rule is based on our survey of available evidence, a set of questions that we're inviting the public to comment on. we'll determine what's the best way to go forward. we encourage people be it e employers to submit comments. >> do you worry, bringing a case or not bringing a case, more power oddly enough in not even proposing a rule or bringing a case against a company because people are scared of you, that power actually has its own regulatory effect, right, i'm not going to do this merger because i don't want the ftc come after me as opposed to

bringing the case, the possibility of losing the case could open the floodgates in other ways. >> congress charged us with enforcing the law we take that seriously, if we see a law violation we have an obligation to enforce that. we want companies by default respecting the law and abiding by the law >> i have two additional questions, not curveballs per se, at least one of them is ongoing which is a lot of folks focused on microsoft and activision, how tech companies should think about merge ners the context of these historically nonadjacent businesses, what's unique about this particular transaction and your decision to pursue breaking it up effectively, that

historically by this sort of antitrust math you wouldn't necessarily say that microsoft had a too big a stake in that space. do you think if you're a board member of a company you have to think of antitrust differently. >> historically congress actually told us to look at all mergers not just horizontal mergers but vertical mergers we're react vating the law there. decades of precedent from the courts across the country that explain what types of vertical mergers may be illegal or legal. we're in the process of currently revising our merger guidelines that lays out how we look at deals and when we're able to publish that should give clarity. >> lot of deals have a timing triggers, a calendar to them and

depending on when you come in it can sometimes scuttle a deal irrespective if you will of whether you could actually get to court because it doesn't make sense anymore to pursue a deal, how do you think about that. >> we primarily think about the deal before us, is it legal, illegal? are we obligated to bring a challenge here how that fits within the time line of the parties have set up between themselves is less relevant to us directly. >> finally you're a twitter user in. >> i am. >> still >> still on you. >> what do you think is happening at twitter, you looked at them hard over the years and a new owner who may have different views. >> i can't speak to the specifics of anything related to the twitter consent decree consent decrees we're now pursuing are much more specific

about the types of business practices that might be prohibited we also are willing to name individual executives if we see they played a direct role in order violations. >> when we've seen reports of employees of twitter raise questions about whether the company is following the consent decree for example what goes on inside the ftc on those days? >> we have a public page where anybody can reach out to us and report to us any wrongdoing they're seeing within a company or their former company, we monitor that quite closely. >> do you dm with elon musk ever that's a no comment, folks >> thank you so much coming up, when we return, lot more, the december jobs report is coming, we'll bring you the number and instant

market reaction.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. top stories today, tesla shares sliding in the pre-market, the company once again slashing prices for some models in china.

13% discount from four months ago for the model 3. a tesla vp in china said on social media that the latest price adjustments were meant to meet demand. southwest airlines now expecting a net loss in the fourth quarter following mass cancellations last month, it previously expected what it called a strong profit, the stock is down but by only a 3% and in washington republicans will try once again to elect a speaker of the house, california congressman kevin mccarthy failed to gain enough support yesterday for the third straight day he's come up short 11 times in a row the longest losing streak since before the civil war. when we return, the market take after this month's jobs

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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc, just a few minutes away from the december jobs report. let's bring in our jobs panel, liz young, jason furman, tyler goodspeed, rick santilli and

steve leishman this structure is made out of bacon, it's right here, it's like a bacon -- >> it's a bacon cake. >> all right, let's get started, steve, i wouldn't normally start with you because you're an employee obviously but you made some points earlier it could be stronger than adp, even though we don't know that much about t how adp works. this could be strong today in your view if. >> i'm just looking at the past history, surprise to the upside every month since april. the indicators, it's one of those things, joe, let me tell you the last report had such a low response rate, one of the lowest we've seen for reasons we've seen that i'm not sure

this is the definitive measure of jobs in the country things like adp, some of the high frequency data we're looking at, and there's things likes seasonal adjustments this time of year, i'm taking this in the context of the other data out there, adp has been light relative to the total here so i still a relatively tight jobs market >> let's go around if we can, a lot of us are talking about adp, you always -- you've been right a lot of times in your pre-report analysis, tell us that today. >> you know, adp numbers were 237,000. i had a dog named bacon so that's near and dear to me

the complete puzzle of the jobs market is one of tightness, pretty solid robust jobs gain so i expect also that to continue the number that we're seeing today i think will be around 200,000. >> liz young, what do you think? >> well, first of all, happy birthday, joe, i think today's data will not necessarily surprise us one way or the other but it should hopefully showing some moderation in the trend of nonfarm payrolls, the thing that's continue to push this number up is the fact that service jobs continue to add i think goods-producing companies continue to lose jobs. however, as everybody else has said we're seeing stubbornly tight numbers in other parts of the labor market

i say 210,000. >> jason, we'll go to rick in just a second, anything you can say in 10, 15 seconds? >> i agree on the strong, i'm going to be looking at wages last month, that was a huge surprise how high that came in how big the revisions came in. >> okay, great, it's time for the december jobs report and rick, you can give it to us and pretend i ask you to weigh in as well after the number. >> not a problem, joe, of course, here we go, the jobs creation for the month of december, 223,000, we continue to see these numbers get closer and closer to 200,000 but historically these are still good numbers, if we look at manufacturing payrolls, they increased about 8,000. 3.5% on the unemployment rate.

that equals the best levels we've seen post-covid, historically unbelievably good and if you're looking at the fed maybe it's unbelievably bad and the twisted relation we have with the fed trying to slow down the economy. if you look at year over year, up 4.6, that's a new low water mark going all the way back to august of '21 when it was 4.3 and if we look at the average work week, 34.3, that was the lowest level since april of 2020, so these are very important numbers to pay attention to as we continue to see deterioration on the workweek, labor force

participation, 62.3, 62.3, and so far in the rearview mirror 62.1 unrevised 62.3 is the best number since the high water mark which was august at 62.4 and we had several of those i believe i think we had one in march of '22, so that's very good news and if we look at the underemployment rate, so it's 3.5%, that's also a new low with respect to the u6. just to let everyone know the employment rate prior to the covid was, what, 3.5% so we're exactly equal now, wages were 3.1 and even though this wage number is a bit of a disappointment especially on the year over year number of 4.6

it's still light years above where we were pre-covid, we need to keep that in context, very quickly, everyone's talking about tech and the layoffs, the wall street journal had some interesting numbers, tech represents 2% of the labor force, that comes out little 3 million in tech in leisure hospitality and restaurants 15.5 million. to put a face on it. joe and the panel back to you. >> all right, jason, i'll get to you a second tyler, some comments, what do you think, tyler in. >> you know i wish we had time beforehand i think my pre-estimate was 215 and i was going to say i'm going to be looking for any signs of easing. the demand is going to be looking for what's happening at average hour ly earnings.

and on the supply side what's happening to composition of flows into employment. on all three of those indicators, two on demand side and one on the supply side i think it's some encouraging signs of a loosening labor market. >> the key here, if you saw the futures take off that's because the average hourly earnings came in not nearly as hot as last month. average hourly earnings up that tells the fed have to continue to push the pedal to the metal on this. >> jason >> so it's not just average hourly earnings in december, last month unusually upward revisions, now downward revisions, the pace of wage growth was 5.5% over the last three months an annual liezed

rate of 4.1 that would be consistent with a 3% inflation rate which is what we're seeing in the price data. but these big revisions means that as steve said before i don't trust this data as much as i wish i could that's going to put a lot of pressure on the eci that we get basically as the fed is meeting for their next meeting that's going to tell us a lot of what's going on in the labor market and price pressures. big piece of data coming up there. >> liz, comments, criticisms, questions. >> so as somebody who's been bearish i have to admit that this is about as close to perfect report in the sense we see wage costs coming down, jobs staying plentiful but not

entirely overheating, the piece of that's going to be the big question mark is whether or not it breaks down to a point later in the year, let's say, late first quarter early second quarter where we can't catch it, when you look at the correlation of the conference board survey, are jobs plentiful or hard to get? some indicators would say back in march the jobs plentiful peaked so we could still be on the cusp of something getting weaker but today this is a pretty good report i think the market cheers it. >> okay, nela, we've seen it, were you surprised, liz said it's really good report. >> yeah, i think it's a strong report going into the new year, that wage data is a double-edged sword, if you look at that number that's well below innation and for a worker seeing their wages go down instead of up in terms of the value of

their dollar it's not a good situation if you're worried about the overall economy and i think that's the real rub of this labor market even though there may be some celebration on the moderation of wages, the household need those wages to be robust to keep up with inflation. bringing the fed into that picture how do they navigate the real drop and we're seeing this in adp data and wage growth, the timing of that with the timing of lower inflation, you'd like inflation to drop faster than wage growth and not the other way around >> it started with you, let me get back, i know you've been looking through these things >> you know, i still see this as a relatively tight report here and i'll tell you why, it was explained to me many years ago, you can look at all these

numbers, you can unpack them and dig down deep but at the end of the day the thing that tells you what you need to know about the job market is the unemployment rate that's 3.5% the household surveys is doing catch up with the payroll survey, you don't have this big difference anymore one thing i'm looking at, joe, the number of people who are long term unemployed, that's come down, what i'm trying to is provide some context in which people can read the headlines about these jobs layoffs, people are losing their jobs and remaining unemployed, that doesn't seem to be the case. real quick, joe the jobs growth was in the still areas playing catch-up after the pandemic, leisure and hospitality, food

and accommodation services are up those are the two areas i'm looking at i still see the jobs area tight i don't see a reason for the fed to back up >> steve, one thing we heard over and over is that there are job openings, but there's a view or there's been a view that's been espoused all these job openings aren't real job openings, that if you put out a job opening on linkedin you leave it there >> here's what i would say to that, i thought about these numbers, the question, do they have any reason to be less real

before the pandemic when the number was 6 million, errors in the data i would suspect those errors were also in existence back before the pandemic, maybe there are reasons in the post-pandemic world that these jobs, phantom job openings than previously but when i hear stories, i said earlier in the show, andrew, when i talked yesterday about these tech workers finding jobs i got an e-mail from a man who lost his job from meta, had three job offers and employed within a month and the issue here is that the tech sector has taken a lot of jobs, the pan -- hired a lot of people, they're right-sizing now industries starved for workers, that are really hungry for these workers to be back >> is this, i'm just sitting

here and wondering whether, i always want to pivot and i'm always ready to say things are better, jason, could this be the beginning of a soft landing in the labor market looks like? i want the best of both worlds i want people to be employed and inflation to come down >> the answer for any question that begins with could is yes. i think the job openings is quite stable than the unemployment rate in terms of what it means, wages growing at this rate i think it's hard to land the inflationary plane with all of this, but we had two good months of price data one good month of labor market

data >> if you're right the equity markets are wrong. >> what? >> i said if you're right the equity markets are wrong in terms of reaction the market is up on this news. >> oh, no. i think this news is a small push in the positive direction overall it was very, very unlikely to have a soft landing before this. it was unlikely now it's less unlikely but it's still unlikely >> who's laughing in. >> since it's jason -- >> that was me >> i agree both it's rational that markets are reacting the way they are to this news however given the tightness, the ongoing tightness to what jason just referred real risks for the markets down the road. either price inflation is going to go blooe wage inflation and

stay below for some time which is bad for corporate earnings or the fed is going to have too tighten by even more in order to curb demand which is bad for corporate earnings the longer term outlook for equity markets is not good given the ongoing tightness of this labor market >> rick, i'll come to you immediately, what's going on >> well, i always find it fascinating when people point to the markets and say the markets isn't right for the here and now. it's always right in the moment. over time it will make adjustment as investors alter their strategy and data alters what investment strategies are we're still hovering right around 3, 3.5 in 10-year they like this particular number and remember, 10-year last week closed at 3.88

we're still bucking the trend. the fed guidance still isn't sinking in and pay increases push in the price increase every metric i look at is peak inflation for the most part is in the rearview mirror to think that wages need to come up is just fool heartedly, i'm sure these inflation numbers are going to come down and meet it so we don't want to see that wage price spiral. another issue our chairman has said, mr. powell, we need to see a better balancing act between supply and demand of labor so the issue i see whether these jobs, the jolts really accurate as andrew brought up, reasons why we may not trust these numbers but they are the numbers. one thing i haven't heard anyone

talk about, even though all those extra benefits during covid to help people out they pretty much expired, certain changes to obamacare that were extended to 2025 is there's an ability to make competitive amounts of income for families with all of the various help programs even though people don't like to hear it i'm not arguing whether it's a good thing or a bad thing, it's another reason why people may not going to work in addition to the other ones and the early retirement and all of the issues we see generally. >> i guess, i'm looking for friends, liz, you said it was a great report, is this the beginning of a softer than expected landing, commodities come down, rent comes down, housing comes down, but

everybody's talking about labor, wages got to go higher, can't we see relief this way? >> it could, lot of things that would have to follow -- the report would have to come in almost exactly like this going forward and i don't know that's going to happen. as rick was talking about wages not needing to go back up and this kind of reduces the concern of a wage price spiral, i agree 100 pkts that's really the bigger risk and if you look at goods inflation we're likely to see all-out deplace in goods this year. it has stayed steady, but if you have wages that stay high, companies have to pass that through because as top line inflation comes down their revenue comes down but if wages continue to stay sticky or go up companies have to pay for that somehow. you don't want to see that wage spiral i think it's good that wage

costs have come down here, again, it's the big question of, does it all go down very rapidly? in recession, unemployment spikes pretty quickly. >> all right -- >> if i can add on to that >> go ahead, nela. finish it up, nela. >> just wanted to highlight this is a very fragmented labor market even it's solid the overall gains we'll see that play out in 2023 those interest rates sensitive sectors like manufacturing i think are at high risk, leisure and hospitality has carried the weight but that's going to be dependent on a consumer who's going to be able to travel, spend and go out to restaurants. i know everyone here wants to cheer the moderation in wages

but real wages are negative so if you're looking at that consumer especially in leisure and hospitality -- >> not in november, nela. >> you're going to have to see a challenging for low-wage workers, it's going to be challenging still in the high inflation to keep up, we're talking about a couple of dollars an hour, steve, we're not talking about huge wage increases even though the numbers look -- >> they were positive. look, this is a big deal, nela, if inflation is going to start coming down and it has especially if you read the piece in the journal this morning and reporting that i have done, look at the five-month annualized rate of inflation, positive earnings in november, likely at this point to have positive earnings in december and that's going to be a change i think it's something when you talk about a soft landing, people making more than inflation are making less.

>> prices have already gone up, it's the rate of change. >> leave it there. thank you to our jobs panel. if anyone can get totimes square, quickly, we got a lot of bacon. lot of bacon left. >> i'm a little worried putting the invite out there >> i have four dogs, but i don't think bacon and dogs anything in moderation >> you might have to call security, there might be a lot of folks, ten minutes to get here futures jumping significantry in the last couple of minutes down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins us now. things are better, maybe on the margins, the question is, is short-term blip or a long-term benefit? >> i think this is a nice sign that the true hardliners say,

look, maybe i have to lessen my hard line. by the way, ftc interview, brilliant, i haven't seen her, happy birthday to joe, keep things in perspective and going back to the numbers, i have to tell an instant recession and that's how things should go? no, you've got to see gradual. i think there's a lot of people out there who think that if it's not gradual, then it's going to be too late. i like the number. as they say in football, a w's a w. don't look through it. >> what i don't know, you have jaypowell watching this number this morning does he say, you have to let up or does he say, you know what, this is working just fine? >> i think he says, look, we've got to stick with the .25. you go back to the 50s we have to keep it so that the rates stay higher for longer we have to see whether this is an aberration or not i think that a lot of people don't understand when you were in class, all of these people they were calm,

they understood. they were not going to get the a plus and blow us away but, you know, jay's looking at it like we are he's saying, you know what, that's not bad we're winning but we're not winning big. he's not belichick, you know i tend to look at this and i say, andrew, you can't have things fall apart instantly. now you see the nasdaq, people are going to immediately come start selling the nasdaq, that's what they do every day, but the mighty dow may actually hold up here. >> i was going to ask, friday, 4 p.m., what do you think this looks like >> i think the dow will be up. i'm not sure about these nasdaq stocks the sellers of those done stop, andrew, they just don't stop. >> jim, we'll see you in just a couple of minutes. thank you for that after this we're going to talk to nuveen saira malik right after this

♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house.

box," everybody. take a look at the futures now you're actually looking at the dow futures up by almost 370 points all of these gains came just after we got the december employment report. it showed a gain of 223,000 jobs which was stronger than expected but the real key here was that average hourly earnings. a gain of 0.3% that is clearer than it could have been. 0.3% was the gain last month as a result you saw the instant pop in the futures you saw a quick drop in treasury

yields joining us is saira malik who is chief investment officer at nuveen your notes headings into this, we were concerned about inflationary prices. does this ease any of that concern? >> this is a goldilocks report that supports the narrative. the key concern is that s&p valuations are at a premium and they're already pricing in a soft landing even if we get them we're still concerned about three things, inflation, the consumer and monetary policy this year which we think likely does at some point lead to some form of a recession. >> the s&p dropped by almost 20% last week. i guess we're talking about the idea of a recession just like citi was they lowered their ratings to underweight and they think the recession is coming and that is not taken into account when you look at the valuations. >> three things haven't been taken into account, earnings, strong margins and a strong

dollar all of those have down side this year we don't think that's priced in. that's why we're recommending fixed income over equities fixed income from a total return type of view until we see some earnings cuts and also the impact of what the fed has done in terms of tightening, we don't think we've seen that yet. i think the market is still likely on the down side. valuations aren't realistic now coming into 2023. >> where specifically in fixed incomes? looking at treasuries? looking at corporates? >> we're looking at quality. the investment grade income. as you're going into economic downturn, seek equity. dividend growers are an area we like quality balance sheets then outside of public markets we also like infrastructure companies. they tend to be more resilient to a recession backing of those companies are waste management and utilities which tend to be less cyclical we're looking for quality and areas of the market that have

less si less cyclicality. >> how much of a drop would you say before you say this makes sense to me? >> the only thing that stays in the trading range, would he have a strong market today. when we get to 4100, 4200 we peter out again and then we trade back down. maybe through the lows of last year before we finally clear the decks with a recession and be set the bar. we'd be more interested maybe 33 to 3500 on the s&p i think that will reflect reality there, then we can find some good value in stocks and have good up side there. >> one thing you haven't mentioned has been the fed that has been the driving force for not just the past year but the last 14 years if you've been watching this. the there is this idea that average hours in november, i mentioned they were up 0.6%. they were just revised down. it shows maybe things are cooling a little bit more. if that's the case and the fed

backs off, does that change your scenario >> before you see a lot of job cuts, you will see people cutting back on hours. that's the narrative that's playing out now. the fed's been pretty clear. they're not going to take their foot off the gas until inflation reaches their target which is about 2% the payrolls number today gives them the ability to keep raising interest rates our view is that even though great hikes moderate, there's a long tail of rate hikes in front of us until we see signs of inflation going to the fed's target and we're just not there yet. >> saira, what signs of hope what would change your mand on anything >> i'd be looking for consistent drop in inflation. watching for earnings cuts things that basically clear the deck and also valuation from the s&p 500. i think if the s&p drops about 10 to 15% from here, that would be an area that's attractive for us going forward. >> 15% 10 to 15%, that's a long way from here. >> it would be basically to the lows and what we saw through

them last year >> wow saira, thank you we appreciate your time and being on today we will see you again soon. >> thanks for having me. >> thank you. folks, let's take another look at the markets. you're going to see the dow futures right now up by about 370 points again, this happened, we've been looking at the flat line basically all morning until 8:30 when the numbers hit the numbers that you saw came in better than expected, up 223,000 in terms of jobs created lighter in terms of the wages, the wage increases and that was key and revisions lower for earlier months as well you can see how that moved you also saw the s&p -- the s&p and the nasdaq indicated higher. if you're watching what's been happening with 10-year, this has been pretty impressive too i don't know if we can look at a tiktok of what's happened over the last half hour yields are down. yields are 6.75% that was a steep move that occurred right there as those numbers hit. >> ban on tiktok.

>> we ban? >> we can look at a tiktok -- >> tiktok on the -- >> oh, yeah. not a tiktok one of those partticktocks. >> happy birthday. >> bacon cake. that's never been done before. >> wow >> start of a new trend. i think it's going to catch on. >> bacon news. we have the graphic ready to go. make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla jim cramer david favor has the day off. wage growth slowing to half of the prior month's initial print. yields tick lower after europe had cooler than normal data. roadmap for jobs, surprising to the up side of december. we wil