happiest place on earth and bob iger wants employees to spend time there it is tuesday, january 10th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. this morning, u.s. equities are mix mixed. dow is off 70. s&p off 2 and nasdaq off 14. that mimics the pattern yesterday. the dow and s&p reported losses. nasdaq did end the day higher by .60%. that was thanks to the 6% rally in ev makers like tesla and

lucid and strong performance from nvidia and global foundrys. if you check things out, the gainers yesterday with tesla up 7.5% the 10-year treasury this morning is higher than the close yesterday. it is below yesterday at this time 3.547%. in the meantime, president biden's lawyers discover ed a number of documents at the washington think tank office last fall. now the justice department is looking into it and merrick garland looking to investigate for failure to return sensitive documents. documents that date to biden's time as vice president they did not disclose how many documents involved or the level of classification. they were found in a locked closet and sent to the national archives on the same day they

were found congress member comer said he would investigate the discovery of the documents the congress member will join us at 8:00 a.m. this morning. he will talk about it. in the house, it adopted a set of rules to govern the chamber. with one republican voted against it most of the time the opposing party votes against all of the rules that are just on decorum this is interesting. this has the one member to bring up a challenge to the sitting speaker to be voted on that is different. it passed 220-213. tony gonzalez did not vote for it as i said, the rule includes some key concessions that gop hardliners fought for. fought for from kevin mccarthy in exchange to become speaker.

including a 72-hour window of release of the bill before facing a vote and allowing a single member to bring up a motion to vacate the speakership. >> they have to get their act together they are dropping these things right before a government shutdown or something else that comes. you need 72 hours, you better move up your internal deadlines. in corporate news, disney ceo bob iger told employees they have to return to offices four days a week starting march 1st that was according to an email obtained by cnbc being together with the people you work with. the four-day workweek is relatively strict. i read this story yesterday and laughed. relatively strict. maybe. there are companies that are saying two or three days that are mandated for in-office for hybrid employees you will see more of this and this is the moment for iger to

do it as he comes back in. >> eventually, we are alling moving -- we may not be. the rest of the world moving to a four-day workweek? >> this was a strict interpretation you are still working four days a week. >> is that where this is headed? >> no. >> you remember the four-hour workweek moving to the four-day workweek? >> maybe a friday work at home thing. >> we tried finding people on fridays. >> i guess disney was a wide range. mickey and minnie have to show >> the park employees have to be there. >> right. >> hopefully guys running the rides have to be there. >> i'm saying do you think white collar work in america is moving -- >> no, you are not going to go to a four-day workweek these greedy people on wall

street at the new york stock exchange or nasdaq no way they are going to four days you can't get the work done in four days, andrew. you need trading on friday they trade on days when the bond market is closed >> there are studies being done all over in parts of the u.s. and dmefinitely in europe. >> definitely in europe. >> 10 or 12 hours and trying to figure out if four days are more efficient than five days. >> that has been the case for a wh while. a hospital worker, you take a longer shift to do it in a shorter time i don't think it is necessarily white collar workers if you have a deal with your boss, that's great i don't know it will be the norm >> by the way, a lot of people are on the road all the time. >> that's a different story. >> what that says to me about that is a lot of people said if i go back and look at the calendar, i was only in the office three days a week anyway.

>> i don't think covid changed it is my point there will be jobs that do that. jobs where you have to do that especially in sales. i don't know -- >> not enough of a density in the office and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. it is useless to be there when nobody else is there. let's talk about shares of virgin orbit they plunging after the company confirming the first launch out of the united kingdom failed to use orbit. it uses a modified 747 jet to drop the rocket from under the wing the rocket released and fired engine and half an hour later, the company announced the launch had an anomaly and the sat satellites would not reach orbit. deleted a tweet that claimed the rocket reached orbit that stock off this morning

about 23%. >> i'm seeing something similar when the first attempt to commercially get into orbit where you go up and you get the booster fired after taken up by the boeing jet it fires in this case, i don't know, it sounds like you need more thrust to keep going, obviously escape gravity and get up to orbit. if you are called virgin orbit p -- you need to get to orbit. >> maybe i forgot. you are looking for movies this documentary about richard branson on hbo is spectacular. >> who did it? >> i don't know. a three or four-part series. the first episode was taped before he was going to space part of the rationale was to get it on tape >> a fan boy movie

why would i want to watch that >> fascinating entrepreneur. think about everything he did. the record company originally. he started with a student magazine turned that into obviously virgin records and mega stores all over he did virgin mobile >> one of his books called "f business." no way >> the soda cola for a long time virgin trains. the airplanes. virgin air going to space think about the great entrepreneurs of the last 50 or 60 years he is on the list. and a great marketer >> like he elon if he were to say something right of center, would you cast him aside like you did with elon or you still like him? he is way out here on the list. >> i haven't cast elon aside. >> you haven't

>> i have not. >> okay. >> i like him a lot more at this point. >> i don't know. >> you can't look inside yourself and give me an honest answer on that >> i have given you an answer. i think the guy is a genius. i don't know why i have to be told -- >> never mind. i thought we could talk about the actual reality of the situation. if you don't want to, that's okay we can do the objective. pfizer ceo refuted -- >> i disagree. >> you like elon as much it started with the flame thrower. started with the flame thrower >> let's go backwards. you for years hated elon musk. hated. everything about elon musk you thought he was a poser. >> i think he used government subsidies and climate change

religion to boost his own profits. lately, he has stated that this whole movement has gone way too far off the deep end >> he can't get money out of the government >> i like him because of the flame thrower. did you see "once upon a time in hollywood" film? >> i like him. i don't know why this has to be about liking someone or not liking someone. >> after the twitter thing, come on after he said that stuff about republicans and all that stuff look at -- not you let's take you out of the equation. >> take me out of the equation >> let's talk about it many people on the left side of the aisle that hate free speech do not like him now. right? can we say that the left that used to embrace him -- people now won't buy an ev. they are buying from volkswagen.

>> he has a different following. we will talk about him more after this story talk about this first. >> take you out of the equation. i will grant you that. you can leave me in if you want. i love him this was unbelievable. from the very first snap penalty on the first snap for both teams then it was just brutal. it was a beatdown for all beatdowns. georgia crushed the tcu horned frogs 65-7 to win the national championship two years in a row. largest margin of victory in a bowl game in college history georgia quarterback stetson bennett who is 25 years old. 6 touchdowns and passed for 4. i don't know really how you

describe it. georgia almost got beat by missouri and they had a tough game that they almost lost last week and tcu had some wins tcu is a 200 to 1 long shot at the beginning of the season and they weren't rangked. >> people are raising questions of the ncaa and how they come up with this stuff. it would be hard to go back through and pick t the reason you have people who are 25 years old athletes is they got extra red shirt seasons with covid seasons canceled. >> a quarterback at oklahoma and here and there he ends up at usc. almost like what happened to professional athletes. it is getting more and more like what happens they should be compensated

>> they work really hard. >> we know and reminded they are like modern day glad iators you don't have to think about damar hamlin, but guys who played football for years, their bodies -- >> their brains. i was thinking about it. we went to the rutgers game. basketball game on sunday. we lost. it was a tough game after beating number one purdue the week before and winning against maryland earlier in the week we stayed afterwards to wait for the guys coming out of the locker room so my son could take pictures and talk to them. a lot of these kids are 19 and 20 years old the vitriol in the stands from people who are mad that you are losing is upsetting. these out of shape old people who did not play that well when they were younger. i see it with 11-year-old kids

it is terrible these are kids 25-year-old was the exception to the rule >> right >> the pressure pu unbel unbelievable most of the kids are not getting the big paychecks with the sponsorships >> it's okay they love the game. >> they play their hearts out. i'm proud of them for what they do while they are studying and flying to northwestern and going to classes >> rutgers does okay in the big ten basketball wise. >> yeah. when we come back, more on "squawk box. markets look ahead and the bank earnings the irs back in the crosshairs under the new congress we take you live to washington you arwae tching "squawk box" and this is cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by tru iist wealth

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welcome back to "squawk box. investors looking ahead to the key inflation data and bank numbers on friday. jay powell will speak at the sweden central bank. we have seema shah and emily roland with us this morning. good morning to you. we will hear from jay powell this morning are you expecting to glean anything from that, seema? >> no, nothing what we have seen in the last couple days is all of the speakers are speaking in one clear voice. if we hear anything, it is powell pushing back on the idea that the market data is enough to stop us from taking risks

further and reemphasis that rate cuts are not on the agenda at this stage. >> emily, do you think he is more aggressive or less aggressive the market seems to think he will slow down and what i don't know is part of the strategy is to make people think he is not going to slow down if he says anything that is marginally aggressive, does the market pull back >> the market will continue to hear from fed officials is that they are committed to fighting looser financial conditions. they are losing that fight right now. maybe not as badly as the georgia bulldogs won last night. you look at financial assets and they are pricing in no probability of recession right now. you see the massive risk-on rally. you see the dollar getting pummeled here. financial assets are fighting the fed and they're winning. >> emily, just to follow-up on that if that is the case, what are

you doing about it >> right now, it is tough to do. we are looking at this as a late cycle bounce it is remarkable to look at high yield bonds. you look at u.s. and industrials and materials and energy just incredible leadership out of areas and cyclical like european equities and chinese equities on the back of the china reopening narrative and better weather in europe those are not normal dynamics we see in the late-cycle the period in the environment where the leading economic indicators have seen five consecutive readings of negative year over year growth that is when you want to own higher quality assets and that is what we are doing in portfolios there is not a lot to love on the equity sides given the fact that stocks are not particularly cheap at 17 times forward earnings if we are looking for parts of

the equity market pricing in recession. value trading at low double digit pe. i'll be honest, high quality on the bonds is looking good. >> late cycle, seema what do you think? are you in the category this is late cycle if that is true, what are you doing? >> i would agree with what she said if you look at the economic data, you look at the yield curve. clear signal the recession is coming the fact the market doesn't believe it is a good time to reposition your portfolio. not much to love in the equity space. u.s. midcap is the one that is somewhat attractive value in the u.s. if you really are keen to go to increasing exposure, look at the international markets which are stronger partly because of the economy which is stronger. generally speaking, this is high

quality bonds and fixed income give you defense for the first time in ages, it is offering an attractive yield. this is an inflation back drop coming down, but still inflation y y ary. >> thank you, both i appreciate it. when we come back, the republican majority in the house looking to slash billions in irs funding. we will take you live to washington next. plus, tesla shares rising this morning after the gain of 6% yesterday we will dig deeper into the move later this hour. .5ght now, the stock is up by $10 to $121.25

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passed arules package viewed a the first test for speaker kevin mccarthy now the battle shakie taking sht the battle with the irs. we have ylan mui with more >> reporter: good morning, becky. on the first day in session, the priority for the house republican majority was to slash funding for the irs. the gop bill would cut $70 billion from the agent sir money to go to operations and fi hiring more workers. this bill passed 221-210 along party lines. democrats vowed to defend the dollars. >> majority of americans, 85%, follow the law and pay taxes the last thing they need is more irs agents knocking on doors to conduct audits >> reporter: democrats vow to

defend the dollars janet yellen said enforcement would be high-income households. the irs audits fewer millionaires than a decade ago resulting in billions of lost revenue. the congressional budget office said this would add $114 billion to the deficit in the next decade this bill is dead on arrival in the senate where democrats are in control president biden warned he would veto if it did land on his desk. it was a taste of the partisan politics for the next two years. the republicans are clear they are ready for a fight. back to you. >> here we go. what is the next big issue on the agenda, ylan >> reporter: so, republicans have a whole suite of bills they plan to pass this week to rally around the common cause and including the irs and to bills on abortion and where to draw

the line in terms of when folks should be able to access that type of service. republicans are trying to show that after last week's bitter in-fighting that they are ready to rally around common causes. i think you will see a lot of attacks around the way businesses relate to china we heard yesterday from the incoming chairman of the ways and means committee jason smith saying he is concerned about the relationship with corporations and china and he wants to look at the tax benefits as they deepen the relationship with china. that isone important area for investors to pay attention to because republicans, although they know they will not pass anything and get to the president's desk, they are ready to make sure their party can unite and they want the united front after messy politics last week >> ylan, we have to run.

that is not anything that gains traction in the senate >> reporter: i think it is the way you approach it, becky republicans are drawing up bills that are not intended to pass with bipartisan support. they are trying to throw red meat to the base they know when it comes to the debt ceiling, this is the time to shore up the base the compromises and b bip bipartisanship has to come later. >> ylan, thank you coming up, just capital revealing its list of the most just companies cnbc will reveal the top five names next. as we head to break, we have a look at the s&p 500 winners and losers

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking the futures we moved not triple the digit loss on the dow. nasdaq in the red after a mixed session yesterday. it did see a turn around as the day went on. 100-point gain during the show yesterday and ended up giving all that back and then some. the nasdaq early this morning was showing gains, but it has now gone down 18 points. just capital announcing 2023 list of 100 most just companies. cnbc is the media partner. we have the launch of the list bra brandon gomez has the list. >> just again recognizing companies for doing right by five key groups. those are workers, communities, shareholders and customers and

the environment. just capital collected or sourced 250 raw data points around 20 issues identified by the public as priorities in just business behavior. of the 951 companies we cover from the russell 1,000, these are the top five most just companies. kicking off the list is rising from 99 to 5th is truist financial. the company propelled higher by the commitment to pay fair wages and work with supplier as minority and women and lgbtq businesses contributing over $1.4 billion to the u.s. economy. number four. accenture. appropriate treatment of private data offering disclosures of the security protocols limiting use of information. and coming in third?

microsoft. held the top stop in 2019 to 2021, microsoft is one of 10% of the companies to offer at least 12 weeks of paid leave for primary and secondary care g givers they address pay equity and maintain ambitious climate targets. number two is nvidia the chip maker leading on issues that matter. detailed analysis with gender and race and ethnicity it is one of few that reports work force data. that and the company offering of 22 weeks of paid parental leave shows why nvidia is in the top ten of the 100 since 2018. the just 100 2023 number one company is bank of america risen from 104 to number 5 in 2022 to the top spot it this year leading on worker issues

raising minimum wage of $22 an hour to $25 by the year 2025 the company has developed sustainable financing products and eliminated barriers for hiring and prioritized having a diverse and independent board of directors. now for the full 100 list and video of the top ten, go to cnbc.com/just-100. >> quick, what sectors when you look from the sector basis led the list in terms of the rankings >> reporter: tech has been a leader in the space. this year, financials did see a uptick in the ranking of the 100. that has to do with the disclosure of the minimum wage for all workers. so, you are seeing names like bank of america leading. bank of america, as we said, slowly has been climbing the ranks year after year.

joining the top 100 list and seeing the most improvement up 138 spots for banks and companies notice financie in thl sector. >> for you looking at the list, the question is do they out perform? if you look at the list in the last 5 or 10 years, are they out performing or under performing are the metrics part of this equate to a better stock pe perfo performance? >> these companies are doing well in terms of the stock they are also performing better on metrics compared to others in the russell 1,000. they are leading on areas whether it is return to shareholders or job creation or paying the highest amount of wages within the industry. these companies are leading on the key issues and they are leading in terms of all of those metrics.

americans are determining what makes a company just. >> brandon. >> the shareholder question, brandon. >> the big question is strictly shareholder. >> metrics don't go into whether they -- do they out perform on the stock market or in your view, these are metrics -- i didn't understand that answer. none of those were related to the stock price. >> what just is making is what makes a company just based on the american opinion what are the best business practices to make them a just company. >> i get that. andrew was asking for investors if the stocks do better of these companies or whether they don't? >> there was a purdy know they were paul tudor johnes has talked about that since the world haspandemic.

good news, brandon we will talk to the coo of tight end mo-- drcoo of t-mobile. thank you. up next, tesla shares looking to extend the gain of nearly 6%. we dig into the move next. later, we will talk to galaxy digital's mike novogratz. you can watch or listen to us live any te.im download the cnbc app. [music playing] ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪

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investors are buying shares of beaten down tesla he th they are up 1% this morning. the stock looking to add to the ga gains. it is still down over 33% over the last month and faces a number of challenges that investors have been talking about. joining us to talk about tesla is gene munster from loup. how are you feeling as we

kickoff the new year >> becky, i'm a long term believer of tesla. i would be cautious near term. i believe there is earnings pressure on the discounting that happened there is the bias when the stock is down as much as tesla to want to own it. i sense we want to own it in the fund we don't own it yet. we want to optimize that opportunity. the key here, of course, is we know the delivery numbers and growth numbers up 31% that was a 2x of the industry growth rate. tesla grows typically 3x to 4x industry the revenue growth gap closed. delivery gap closed. i want to anchor back to the topic when they report on january 25th which is earnings a quick math here, of course, they are discounting in china.

lowered prices by 13%. if you assume there is no other discounting across the globe when it comes to tesla pricing, that would have a negative 15% impact on the march earnings the street is looking for $1.40 right now. if you look at further discounting, that should go down you should expect a 25% haircut to the march earnings. that does not sound optimistic who has been bullish on tesla for a long time. i want to underscore i remain p positive on the company. there are a few good reasons to own this in 2023 i think we can see more pressure in the near term >> gene, when did you sell tesla shares you had them at one point. >> we did. they basically tapped out on market cap blew through a market cap provision. it was a long time ago

we owned it lower. it went up and we had to sell based on market cap. we had a maximum of 400 billion. when it blew through this, we had a sell on it >> 400 billion >> yeah. >> what did it go to >> we missed a lot of the juice. we missed a lot of it, joe one of the challenges with the funds is the small and midcap funds hold the companies until they are very big and lose direction. >> you watch the profits run and can cut your losses. >> in this case, we had rules around the size of companies for being a small and midcap company. when it blows through some of the targets, you get rid of it

>> keep going. sorry. >> we want to keep our products in line with the market cap provision. >> gene, real quick. i want to talk about a headline. semafor out with news this morning. we will talk later about this. microsoft making an investment in chatgdp open ai created this a lot of folks playing around with it online right now it can almost write stories and memos ands and notes for you. i was curious. people are thinking of the valuation of the 29 billion dolbillion. some people have said if you have enough computer power and p enough engineers, these types of technologies over time, a lot of companies may have them.

>> the practical piece and theory piece practical piece is they have to lead open ai has a lead that is probably several years that will be an advantage. from the theory piece on ai as we reach that growth curve from general intelligence to super intelligence, i'm geekinginging o -- geeking out here that will level off once it hits those levels >> are you suggesting it becomes a kcommodity? >> i don't think it will be a commodity, but general intelligence will be readily available. >> i assume there are two pieces you have to boil the internet or ocean. that is computer power story that can take $100 million i don't know the number to boil

the en internet ocean. the second piece is the algorithm looks like with machine learning and what not or ai piece that will try to understand all that. >> correct those are the two levels a third piece i'll add is some of the modules or ai learning will be distributed through the cloud hosting platform google with ai, you can purchase some of the learning amazon will do the same. they are doing the same with aws. >> it reminded me of the cloud the same companies bringing the super server power are involved in this. gene, we need to run my favorite response to the story last night was a tweet that said chatgpt, you should see what market cap it gets from

microsoft. >> i'll be happy. just breaking from coinbase. restructuring plan it cuts approximately 950 more jobs one fifth of the work force. coinbase cut 18% of the force back in june i'll get more details at the top of the hour. coming up, we'll talk to the ceo of lifetime health group of the big business of premium fitness. planet fitness and lifetime. we'll be back momentarily.

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it's that time of year again when americans start hitting the gym to make good on the new year's resolutions, but amid tightening economic conditions, some are reconsidering the pricey investment. we have the founder and ceo of

lifetime group holdings. it is good to have you on. i go five times a week five of seven times a week i notice the worst day to go is january 1st. or january 2nd you can't find a space in the parking lot. two weeks later, it is back to normal that typical >> that's typical. that enthusiasm of the first and second and third day rings off and each passing day by the end of the month, we're back to normal days. >> i can ask you the questions without needing to read your reports because i know about pickleball you are talking -- you took one of our basketball courts and turned it into one, two, three, four pickleball courts that are never open four people on every court all the time that is a growth engine for you.

>> it has been you know, pickle thebball bring everyone together. young and old and ethnicity. i love it. i did not think i would play when i was playing tennis. i didn't think it would create enough spot. once i got a game in i was hooked we made a huge commitment. we have surpassed 430 courts already across the country we're going to continue our path and hopefully 700 courts by the end of the year with the aim of getting to 1,000 and providing the largest group of courts for folks across the country who can use the lifetime app as you travel and book courts anywhere. participation is up tenfold from january to december of last year we will continue growing. >> i really wonder during the pandemic, we all did, about

at-home for going to the gym you had to sort of tighten your belt for a while during the pandemic are you reflecting this result preliminarily released yesterday in the fourth quarter was promising and the stock was up sharply. back to what percentage of revenue growth back 100%? almost above where you were prior to the pandemic >> yeah. a great question we really aimed for the month of december last year to be the month we will surpass december of 2019. january of 2023 will eclipse the dues revenue from all of the same exact clubs that were open prior to 2019. then the rest of the business is growing very nicely.

we implemented the variety of programming and strategies from the pricing strategy to go more elevated communities of getting the people together and make sure to have a sharper experience for those customers as well as working on the small group training program and made it much easier we have done a lot of transformations. lots of adaptation over the last three years. i'm really pleased to say they are all working. we will break all records. we will break our revenue record we break every record in 2023. it has been a long and painful three years. we are very happy to be where we are right now. >> we are almost out of time, bahram i can talk about this already. it is a high-end club.

because of that, you spend a lot of time getting the right people you do get the right people across the board from the management and membership types and trainers i know everybody there by now. that's important like any service business, you have to get the right person to run the place so he gets all the right people to interact with the members. you do that well. >> thank you so much i think it is a difference in our place which is we aim to provide athleticcountry club experience those communities and those connections for you as a member is super important and that's really what makes people want to come back. people love other people and they like to be part of the communities. >> misery loves company. that's all it is misery loves company i need someone telling me it is okay when i'm there and not to cry because i hate exercise so much it is a great experience i'm kidding.

happier when i'm leaving bahram, thank you. good quarter you reported yesterday. i'll be going in two hours i'll be there. >> okay. thank you, joe thanks for having me on. >> you're welcome. see you later. coming up, fed chair jay powell set to speak later this morning. we will speak tstrategy we will have paul tudor jones talk about the capital and then the ceo of t-mobile. we are coming right back with two big hours ahead. >> announcer: quasquawk ceo cals sponsored by truist wealth where meaningful relationships matter most. an approaching car, a puddle, and knew there was going to be a situation. ♪ ♪

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and lower overall costs leave more money in our budget. for more practical furniture? this was supposed to be hip. no. can you help me up? with mac, configured by cdw, a solution that works for everyone isn't just possible, it's powerful. good morning interest rates in focus again for investors ahead of the speech by fed chair jay powell overseas we will get you up to speed on what is moving in the pre-market. president biden in mexico. we layout what's on the agenda and what it means for business. and reports this morning that microsoft is about to make a $10 billion bet on open ai the firm behind the wildly popular chatgpt app. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now

good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live on the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with rebecca quick and joe kernen looks like we would open down. look at the dow off 130 points s&p off 13.5 points. the nasdaq down about 42 points. quickly, treasuries as well. the 10-year treasury sitting at 3.5. the 2-year treasury at 4.247 breaking news from coinbase. kate rooney has more on that >> reporter: joe, good morning coinbase is cutting one fifth of the work force

the blog post said it plans to cut 950 jobs the second round of layoffs for coinbase after slashing 18% of the work force in june citing at the time it needs to manage costs and growing too quickly. the ceo brian armstrong says looking back, we should have done more with layoffs the best you can do is to react quickly once information is available. he says that's what we're doing now. in this case, overall, this would bring operating expenses down 25% by the end of the current quarter. it will move restructuring expenses with $149 million to $163 million coinbase expects losses to stay within a guardrail of $500 million. armstrong pointed to operating

expenses with tech companies like amazon and salesforce rein in similar expenses. armstrong talked about the damage to the crypto markets dragging on coinbase he called ftx's downfall a black eye. he says there is likely more contagion. scrutiny is a good thing, but market fear. coinbase shares rallied 15% yesterday. still down 83% in the past 12 months lower here in the pre-market back to you. >> kate, thank you all these companies. it is weird. when they were hiring, you wonder whether -- no tree grows in the sky tech across the board. you wonder what they were thinking when you have gotten that bloated the good times they thought would last forever

>> coinbase said they were planning to hire 2,000 jobs. you are seeing it across tech. other major crypto companies and talking about getting back to the start-up culture of being lean and doing more with less. it is good across tech. >> coinbase looks like a bitcoin chart. pretty close. >> it tracks closely more volatile recently bitcoin has been steaming a good stable asset if you compare it to crypto stocks. >> it is down 85% over the last year >> kate rooney, thank you. let's get to dom chu with the pre-market movers. >> becky and joe and andrew. a possible merger monday takeover tuesday healthcare and pharmacy benefit manager cvs looking to buy oak street health in the deal worth $10 billion from the enterprise

stan standpoint according to the bloomberg report oak street operating medical centers. now this possible deal would follow-up on cvs big acquisition of cignify health. a deal under anti-trust regulators oak street up 36% pre-market cvs health down .10% in the pre-market trade next up, oil majors, exxon andchevron and analysts from mizuho upgrading to a buy rating they are calling it a top pick they cited the ability to generate cash over the next three-to-five years. they are dowgrading chevron from the neutral prior buy. exxon shares up .50% chevron is flat. bank of america is naming

delta airlines as the top pick of 2023. citing free cash flow. it is seeing delta airlines with the market share in the coming months delta shares unchanged right now. we end with virgin orbit plunging by 22% pre-market 100,000 shares of pre-market volume after the latest mission to launch a satellite in orbit from uk soil failed in orbit the market cap now, andrew, roughly $650 million a 21% decline in virgin orbit. back to you. >> thank you, dom. the report on small business out this morning from the nfib ahead of the fed chair steve liesman is here with that. steve. good morning, andrew an otherwise downbeat report and

good news on inflation with one of thing biggest declines on record plans by small businesses to raise prices the overall index is 89% this is at recessionary levels unfilled openings. down 3%. it remains high. expected sales is down minus 10%. these are net numbers. those expecting higher sales and minus 10%. down 2%. raising prices and now down 8% to 43% the more important news is the 10 point drop of plans to raise selling prices in the future it is the third largest drop on record this goes back to 1973 it is a few points above the long-run average that is normal here. and the economist bill

dunkleberg saying fewer firms raising. the economy appears to be slowing, but has not shown up p. trouble on the other inflationary front with the tight labor market jay powell set to speak in stockholm this morning about the central bank independence. it may not be a barn burner on policy there is q&a we need to monitor. this comes the day after the comments from raphael bostic who said the fed is willing to overshoot with raising rates there will be no rate cuts through 2024 he will consider a 25 basis point hike depending on the cpi data best hope for stocks coming thursday that may not be enough the fed has been inclined to look past it guys >> steve liesman, quickly. how tough do you think he will

talk today in terms of how the market may be reacting one way or the other >> if he gets around to talking about the economy, andrew, and monetary policy, i don't know today is the day he will give monetary policy. maybe if comments are there after the inflation report and it is benign, maybe he will signal 25 is coming rather 50. like i said, i don't think this is data dependent. this is date dependent they have a date with 5% funds rate >> steve, thank you. i appreciate it. we'll see. coming up, we talk markets and where you might be putting your money to work futures are still in the red later, mike novogratz talks the economy and crypto and much

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i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. welcome back to "squawk box. broadcom shares fell after apple plans to manufacture a key iphone component inhouse broadcom is responsible for an 45% of apple's chips

apple will replace electronics from qualcomm. apple the had been expected to replace that this year, but development snags appeared to push that timeline back. let's talk the markets joining us is anastasia amarosa. new year a lot of people are concerned where we are headed. how about you? >> plenty of reasons for concern as we deal with the slowdown and the fed. coming into the year, i'm looking through this with the fresh perspective and bit of optimism in the first five trading days of the year, what gave us pause is inflation really is seemingly easing across the board. we will not call victory on this yet. if you think about the com components of cpi, the goods component is coming down

significantly. it was 15% year over year last summer now 3% year over year. that say step down we saw the nfib report where businesses are not planning to raise prices as much as before that is a positive the payrolls report was the soft landing report it told us jobs are still there and yet at the same time wage growth is slowing down you add all that together and that bodes well for the cpi report that we should get on thursday in fact, consensus does expect 0% change month over month that is a positive narrative that is the lynchpin to the markets this year. i think that's one reason for optimism also the fact we priced in the slowdown or shallow recession. that is becoming a view. that is also a good thing. >> i think those are all good things i guess the number on thursday, the inflation number, cpi on thursday, will be a big, big issue. this is a fickle market.

market takes off in one direction and feeling great about things if that number comes in above 0% and comes in hotter, you could see a quick turn >> i think that's right, becky the point here is we are not out of the woods yet this is not an escape volaeloci market this will be a tug-of-war for the next few months. if inflation disappoints, that is not good news if it surprises positively and the markets try to rally, guess what the fed is probably going to talk the markets down. the market is still going to be caught between the forces. as an investor, i think what you do is it recognizes the trajectory over the next six months which likely will be down for inflation and over the next six months, the fed will likely have hiked the rates high enough to be above the core pce becky, one thing i'm looking for come middle of the year is that

the fed funds rate is 5% or above and the core pce will be around 3.8%. for the first time in months, quarters, we will have a gap that opens up with the nominal rate higher than the core inflation. that is what eventually will give the fed the opportunity to pause if not cut rates that's a positive development for the markets. >> for years, the strategy of buying on dips was a smart one last year was not the case do you feel comfortable getting back to the strategy like that if you think this is positive overall and you see a head fake from the markets and things run lower, 3% dip or 4%, would you buy? >> i think you commit to buying the dips and don't do this over the next week. do this over the next 3 to 6 months and have a strategy in place. the reason, becky, i'm comfortable saying that today is

we had a huge reset in valuations across the board. rates went from 0% to 5% fixed income corrected across the curve. you had spread widening. you had equities reset now they are down the middle these are all very positive developments software valuations from 20 times enterprise value to revenue to 5.5 you had massive corrections in valuations and we have priced in a lot. that's why i say have a strategy of gradually accumulating assets on the pull back 2022 is a reset year what people underappreciated coming in is how long the reset will last. it lasted the entire year. now from six months from now is where you take valve the valuations. >> we have four big banks on friday reporting

if those numbers are disappointing which most people are expecting if the banks take reserves for the downturn in the economy, what does that do what do you think of the financials >> i think the biggest question from the earnings season is going to be on managing costs and managing profit margins. i think the results from the banks may be on the disappointing side because if you look at the margin trend for financials it has peaked and declining. that is the same for communication services and the case for infotech. if you think about the tsectors with the layoffs is the margin pressure banks fall into that category. you can take a positive side to this if markets are disappointed that profit margins are shrinking, the cure to that is layoffs and pairing back the buybacks of the shares those are the measures that we

are likely to see in the financial reporting season going back to the soft landing jobs report, the fact we have jobs and still created despite the layoffs, that bodes well for any sort of expected losses for the banks. >> a fnastasia, thank you. coming up, president biden set to meet with his north american counterparts today in mexico tackling the number of key issues of border crisis and drugs and climate issues we will talk to kemi novogratz coming up to talk about the fed. "squawk box" is coming back in just a moment.

president biden's lawyers say they discovered a small number of dock uments in the office of a small think tank now garmerrick garland will loo into the investigation of

documents that date to biden's time as vice president officials did not state how many documents were involved or information they included or the level of classification. the white house said the documents were found in a locked closet and then sent to the national arrestchives the same day they found. we will talk about this with james comer, the kentucky republican who is in line to chair the house oversight committee. he will investigate the documents. he will join us at 8:00 a.m. and president biden will meet with the leaders of canada and mexico later today the three expected to tackle the a number of key economic issues with tensions lingering in the background ahead of the sitdown. kayla tausche has nmore >> reporter: good morning. ahead of the meeting and conference today, the three countries pledged policy actions on climate change and migration

just this morning. including building a web site outlining pathways for migrants and constructing ev chargers along the border one development is cooperation on semiconductor manufacturing with the private sector forum planned this year. there is acrimony with biden and obrador were taking on a dispute over power plants built by foreign investors. if this intensifies, there could be tariffs the parties are still talking. >> we expect that those discussions will continue and with or without personnel changes on one side or the other. we all share a common interest here in terms of making sure energy security is something that is taken a regional approach on. we will do that going forward.

>> reporter: that's just one of the issues in play the u.s. has also alleged canada's dairy market barriers too high and raised concerns of the mexico banning imports on modified corn. the two allies say the u.s. is too strict of sourcing of auto parts. business groups on the border are calling on the governments to reach agreements to avoid the outcomes and the administration says don't expect anything guys. >> a tense scenario than we have seen the last two years. >> reporter: absolutely. 14 months ago when the parties held the last summit, some of the issues were just starting to simmer beneath the surface now they reached a fever pitch and reaching the point in some of the negotiations and timelines where it is time to introduce penalties or reach agreement. we will see whether they can reach agreement or appoint more intense dispute panels that

pursue the outcomes that groups like the chamber of commerce are trying to avoid. becky. >> kayla, thank you. >> joining us now is the former ambassador to canada and co-chair of the institute advisory board with the wolfson center ambassador, it is an important time trade in the americas, obviously. given near shoring and supply chain issues and problems with some of our partners in the far east there are suppliers who would like to have the timeframe you don't want a 12-hour difference when you are shipping things this is important especially if we are in a globalization mode any more this is a question this is hugely important at this point. >> it is hugely important, but

it has been important for a while. in 2005, then republican president george w. bush convened the president of mexico and prime minister of canada to his ranch. that brought on the dialogue since the obama administration former president bush reached out to me while i was ambassador and reached out to officials and mexican and canadian officials and reconvened in texas in 2016 his own summits a former president to emphasize the importance of the north american relationship why did he do that because there was a person running for president named trump who was using different language about mexico and canada his fears were held up we did not have a summit in 2017, 2018, 2019 or 2020 like this so, it was reignited by

president biden last year and i think your point is absolutely right. we have some very significant issues that we need to address if we don't have a relationship and we can't sit across the table and we can't have that personal relationship, it will be harder to deal with you are right, we have trade, we have immigration, we have drug issues that are happening at the border we have environment and climate. the onshoring or near shoring is important for supply chains. this is an important meeting >> it is important it shows a close relationship with our nearest neighbors is probably more important than ever that brings in to focus some of the problems that we have that you just highlighted what can be done what do you think the president will talk to the mexican president about? there's cartels that we worry

about the power and ability of mexican authorities to deal with the cartels. >> so these meetings and i think it would be wrong for to us exact quick fixes for the problems coming from the meetings last meeting last year, there were 40 working items that came out and all three countries are working together i think the u.s. has to use this opportunity to explain the things that we're most concerned with and have to listen to our neighbors as to what things that are on their mind and how we come together and solve these problems migration is a significant issue at the border. the largest cost of death is not covid and not gun violence it is fentanyl and drug overdose a large portion of the drugs are coming across the southern border

we need to tackle these issues they are serious they are compliccomplicated. the trade issues mentioned should not be minimized either the new u.s. nca has the resolution authority in it if it doesn't work, we have to look for other outcomes here. >> we could spend the entire summit talking about energy, i would think. that is different between canada and mexico it is all interrelated it seems more important than ever now with what we have seen with the price of energy and fears about supplies around the world. what do we need to do there? i know mexico has done a fewbrow need to talk about >> it has to be on the table it is a serious issue. the mexican government with this

president amlo, he believes in nat natio nationalation of the energy sector that's not going to happen we need to sit down and look across the table and resolve those issues that is potential violation of the usnca. it is first talking and we have to use the tools of resolution to tackle some of these things >> looking at the us -- is this a success? >> upgrade to nafta. it was a combination to the democrats and the house and nancy pelosi and president trump and his team and came together and reached agreement.

everybody was pleased. within that agreement, there is criteria focusing on mexico and labor and environmental standards. treatment of workers and so fo forth. there are questions if they are abiding by that agreement. fair warning to everybody. within the agreement, there was a six-year look at the agreement and in six years, all three countries have to sign back on to extend the agreement. that six years is in 2026. so, look, that's coming up soon now. we have a presidential race. it could be a topic in the presidential race. people need to take this seriously. it is a strong message that there are other pathways we don't want to go down. if we can't resolve the disputes, we could find ourselves in an annual review

starting in 2026 >> are you ready for another ambassadorship soon? where were you ottawa a nice house hard work or a lot of entertaining i'm asking for a friend. i have my eyes on malta. really nice. >> when i had the wonderful opportunity to serve our country in canada, canada was our largest trading partner. 400,000 penople cross the borde. canada is in norad nato partner there are so many things >> it seems like a lot of work i need a smaller place too many problems. ambassador, thank you. we appreciate it still to come, a lot more here on "squawk box. mike novogratz is coming on

next we will talk crypto and blames the losses on jay powell and the fed. plus the annual list of the just companies is out there morning. we talk to paul tudor jones and mike sievert stay tuned you don't want to miss this.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning news that crossed literally within the last hour here now. coinbase, big news, announcing a further restructuring plan it will cut approximately 950 more jobs. one fifth of the work force. cutting 18% of the work force back in june stock mirrored bitcoin according to the next guest, the bitcoin fall in 2022 is caused by one man jay powell brought a hammer to inflation. joining us now is michael novogratz. michael, i want to talk about that and the overall macro economy and i want to start with the coinbase news. what do you make of it and what

do you make of the valuations not of the coins any more, but of the stinfrastructure around t you could buy crypto or the folks around crypto. it doesn't matter what happens to the value of the stuff as long as you are in the shovels and that's where the real value is what do you think now? >> 202 2 was a washout for crypto anything that was growthy and big costs and ref shrinking got hammered i think ceo and brian at coinbase is doing the right thing. it is not horrible, but it is not great. we have regulatory headwinds we didn't have before we have time to heal and rebuild

narrative. people will cut costs and survive this transition period crypto is not going away what is interesting is the price of bitcoin and ethereum held steady it has gone up in the last few days if you had to sell, there is a lot of bad news. if were you leveraged, you got out of the leverage. it is a clean market right now there are still overhangs. dcg and gemini that will play out in the next quarter. that is not going to be great. i don't think it will include a lot of selling it is just not good news i think what we are trying to do at galaxy, we bought a mining fa as you cility in texas. we bought a company in israel. we are leaning in where we think is appropriate we are understanding that 2023 is the year to survive and catch the uptick

>> because we haven't talked about the gemini and genesis thing. for people not understanding what is going on one is an exchange that is owned by the winklevoss twins. the other is owned by barry silberg. all of this is coming into question because the gates have gone up. what do you think happens with all of this and why do you think this won't create more selling if, in fact, the gaither gates ? >> genesis was our biggest competitor larger than galaxy in lending and trading. it appears they are over their skies. they had credit losses they could not handle they have some loans from the parent company the parent company with some tension. >> do you believe they have

accused barry of comingling going on and if it so, how would it relate to grayscale the other business, big business, barry owns a lot of businesses in the crypto space that is the other big one that public investors are exposed to. >> i'm in the good position to be a watcher and not a participant. i think the courts will sort that out listen, barry was engaged in lots of crypto grayscale is the largest asset manager. genesis the largest lender and trader company a large mining operation as well so, it is a complicated mess over there right now i do think it will have to, you know, come to fruition in the

next quarter i feel bad for the winklevoss twins. they ran a tight regulatory ship as possible and naively or who knows why, allowed lots of their customers to make the decision to lend money to genesis which turned out to be a black hole than they thought it would be. so, now they have their customers suing them to say how did you do this to us. when people lose money, especially retail customers, the sense of responsibility of where it lands often goes to the guy one step above him so that's going to play out. not great for their business it is not great for barry's business i think overall that's the last big cloud that the crypto markets have to let drift by then it's rebuild. what is promising is you think of nfts.

that is strong nfts are higher in price than ethereum before the crises started in lots of communities crypto will come back not because of blackstone and goldman and institutions it will come back because of retail again this is always started as a people's revolution. they are hard to knock down. people believe in the ecosystem. bitcoin as a value ethereum will be a major blockchain where things get built on top of. i don't think the industry goes away, but it has to prepare for choppy waters. >> mike, a story yesterday that binance is bleeding assets the cash swituation is worse thn c.c. indicated last month. what is your stance on binance >> i think binance is 60% of

liquidity of crypto. no one knows factually my strong instincts are they have the cash to match the assets you have a business making $2 billion a month in free cash flow, it would seem very strange to put that at risk to steal a little bit of money. i think we make a mistake thinking sam ended up being a criminal and used customer money that everyone else was doing the same thing i don't believe binance is if the balance shrinks, they have the cash to help them the regulators from the u.s. decide if they want to go after c.z. that creates more nervous news i don't think that risks solvency it risks more nervousness around the business >> mike, we have to run.

i want to get you back to talking about jay powell we have to get to break. i will talk to you soon. thanks, mike. >> good to see you coming up, microsoft in talks to invest $10 billion in open ai creator of the viral chatgpt. chatbot. we will dive into that story in a bit.

the new consumer data out from the bank of america institute. found that total debit and credit card spending per house was up 5.9% year over year for 2022 the growth rate did slow 2.2% in december spending growth up 3.7% and spending on services up 10%. bank of america's data showed consumer after tax wages decelerating to 2.7% in december

from high of 8% in april of last year you are talking about spending up at least when it comes to goods and still below the rate of inflation when we come back, is microsoft ready to bet on chatgpt? we will talk about that after the break. later, interview with founder and market veteran paul tudor jones and molet-bi ceo mike sievert "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪ ♪ dreaming is free. ♪ accenture, let there be change.

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microsoft is reportedly in talks to invest $10 billion in open ai. that's the creator of chat gpt the app that has gone viral since the release last month this would give open ai a $20 billion valuation. right now we have the details from liz hoffman liz, good morning. >> this is a big deal. they've put a billion dollars in the past but $10 billion, getting that kind of valuation really amps this up. >> it is crazy money i think the biggest venture, this is probably we-work, which had everyone's heads spinning. i think this is m&a. they're going to end up owning almost half of this thing for $10 billion and it is a strategic investment for them. i would think about it more like an m&a deal than a venture round. >> do i understand the details, it is not $10 billion up front, it is money over years and if they hit certain milestones. >> it is over time and it might

include the first investment they did was mostly credits. because this app's biggest cost by far is competing power. every time you have fun on it and you just ask it a question, could it costs like 2 cents. so it is huge computing costs. and microsoft and these companies have been buying market share google put a billion dollars into cme with an understanding they would move their business to a google cloud. there is a in-kind trade but there is serious cash here too. >> how difficult is this in terms of the computing power i think of a few players who might be able to come up with something like that. it would be microsoft, it would be google and amazon maybe ibm, but maybe that is a stretch. >> maybe certainly some chinese players too. i think the right way to think about it is it is huge computing play for microsoft certainly behind amazon and,

number two from amazon and behind google. we've made a lot of jokes in the last 24 hours but they were early into this -- i see you're trying to doing x, can i help you. >> it is not worth $20 billion right now. but i have to think about -- >> $29. >> yes can max headroom write his own copy we just better look for some of the work ethic at this point. >> i think i would consider to be employed for a long time. there is a lot that goes into this every kind of automation comes -- >> where does this lead. >> most valuations are a little fake good times and even now. but, no, microsoft, for them, it is a strategic investment in something that i think is really -- we make a lot of jokes in the last couple of years but where are my flying cars and in

the late 90s, you had smartphones. >> how much did you pay for wordle >> a million dollars >> don't think it was just -- i think it was low single-digit millions i think it was a little more than a million let me ask you a different question you talk to some tech engineers and players who say that this technology clearly amazing in this moment, but with enough compute power to boil the ocean or boil the internet and enough engineers, there is -- not that it becomes a commodity and these guys have a huge head start. but that others would be able to do this and potentially do it either better or similarly and therefore the question to me becauses what is the valuation i talked to someone last week who said look, i think about $150 million worth of compute power and engineers i could get close to this. give me 12 months and i think i

could try to do something in in vicinity do you think that is possible? >> that is obviously the right question how deep is the moat and how big is the head start. you never really know. people spend a lot of time and money trying to -- if you have enough of a head start and become enough of a household name, i don't know this will turn into a verb like uber, but there is value. >> but i'm assuming and this is where the interesting part is for microsoft, they have about $11.7 billion if advertising dollars right now. i think the first use case is advertising. because it could be customized and between this on that kind of piece plus the bing of it all and the idea of what they're doing with netflix, maybe that is where this goes and also you reported in terms of how it is structured, that they get their money back first

interestingly enough. >> it is a deal i've never quite seen they get 75% of profits. to be clear, there are not any profits right now. so they get their money back it is not clear whether that includes -- >> the first billion dollars -- >> all ten. >> should we be talking about this valuation in the way -- >> i think not there is a lot of ways to crunch the numbers. if you get to 29, it is $18 billion pre-money and $10, $11 going in and bing, for all of microsoft's efforts, it is a little bit of a laughing stock and they think this is a game-changer with google. >> liz, thank you. we'd love to talk about it longer we're up against a hard break. >> needle nose ned much more "squawk box" still to come we're going to talkto congressman james comer, kentucky republican who is in

line for the chair of the committee next and plus our exclusive ierewntvi with paul tudor jones and mike siefert. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco.

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good morning, futures sliding as we make our way towards the opening bell on wall street all major averages set to erode more of last week's big gains. and the winter striking coinbase announcing more layoffs after a round of cuts just a few months ago. and the list of america's

most justice companies is out. legendary investor paul tudor jones is going to join us along with the ceo of t-mobile this is a wide-ranging conversation of what happens to shareholders in 2023 the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc in the times square i'm with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. futures now down 145 after giving ground yesterday. was it bostick maybe it was rafael bostick. i know withe were going to havem on and i watched the market selloff and then any time anyone says we're going higher for longer,

it is like new information to market players. >> it is concern about jay powell is speaking today and we don't know what he will say. >> he will say the same thing. and the lead is going to be, we're higher for longer. treasuries take a quick look because the yield did back up a little bit a range from 3-4% recently. >> here are stories that investors will talk about today. coinbase is planning to cut nearly a thousand jobs as it tried to weather the crypto marketdown turn. they cut 18% of the work force last june and saying it had grown too quickly. coinbase ceo telling kate rooney that the company should have cut more workers last year he said that there are likely more shoes to drop in his words following the collapse of sam bankman-fried's ftx. the most recent cuts were 20% of the remaining work force that stock off by about 3%. virgin orbin shares, the

first launch out of the u.k. failed to reach orbit. an anomaly had occurred and said nine satellites aboard it would not make it to space the market capitalization of virgin orbit is about $650 million that stock is down by almost 20%. and ray dalio and bridgewater doubling the fund assets in china over the last year, according to a reuter's report which put assets at close to $3 billion in december they raised $2.7 billion yuan for bridgewater china. >> the justice department is looking at a number of classified documents found in november at president biden's former office space in washington an attorney that services as special council toet president said biden's perm lawyers alerting the white house and the documents were returned the next day. our next guest is the new gop

chairman of the house over sight committee and plans to ask the white house council office and the archives for more information on this story. let's welcome congressman james comer of kentucky. it is good to have you, congressman. >> good morning. >> other than what everybody has seen on the story, what could you tell us that with he may not know. >> well -- right we all know that mar-a-lago was raided by the fbi. apparently because donald trump had taken some documents that were deemed classified to his residence. that was unprecedent to raise the residence of a former president. every president and vice president had mistakenly taken a few documents but they've never been raided. president biden was quick to condemn former president trump he called him irresponsible and now what we found out yesterday is president biden did the exact same thing but we haven't seen any raid of president biden's former

residence. look, this just goes along with the narrative that a lot of people in america believe there is a two tier system of justice at the department of justice they believe that donald trump was treated differently than any other president. they believe republicans are treated differently than democrats and that is one reason why we're launching a select committee to investigate the weaponization of the doj and fbi. >> it was certainly, at least we have the impression, that the situation with former president trump was exponentially worse than any past president or exponentially worse than this and that is the way that has been portrayed do you know whether these are similar situations, as one involves 50,000 documents and the other involve 500 documents. one involved highly classified and the other involved much less because that is -- >> but biden gave them back.

trump didn't. >> exactly >> right >> sadly, we don't know. we don't know. because when the mar-a-lago was raided, the national archives is in the jurisdiction of my committee. they're normally a sleepy committee that comes before us without fanfare but they triggered a raid of the residence of the former president. we requested the steps taken to raid why did they make this decision and how did they have the authority to make this decision and exactly what types of documents did donald trump have. they wouldn't respond to us. they only referred us to the department of justice and merrick garland. we know that he's not going to respond with anyone. well, now the same thing has happened to president biden. so today we're sending out another formal request asking again what exactly happened at mar-a-lago, what types of documents did follower president trump have versus what type of

documents does joe biden have. now these documents were discovered november 2nd, before the midterm elections. but no one in the biden administration told anybody that and the only reason we know about it today is because cbs news somehow broke the story so again, another example of this administration not being transparent. and remember the closing argument that joe biden made during the midterm election was that republicans were a threat to democracy and one reason he kept citing is donald trump had classified documents now, here we know joe biden did the same thing >> let me ask you, shift gears -- >> go ahead. >> here is what you're going to hear it is apples and oranges >> that is -- >> that is what i just asked so do you want to ask it again >> well it is a question which do you -- joe, did ask it and i'll ask it marginally differently. >> they're not showing me. >> but there are other two pieces to it

one that it was immediately and very quickly identified and brought to the attention of the national archives. is that to you different than what has already taken place with former president trump? onto it self. >> well according to the national archives, they worked with the former president many times and they said that he began cooperating and then in the end wasn't cooperating i don't know if that is true or not. but with former -- or with current president biden, apparently his attorneys supposedly turned the information over november 2nd. but we're just now finding out about this and the difference in finding out about it today than november 2nd is it is right before an election it is a pattern here with joe biden. if you remember during the first presidential election between biden and trump, the hunter biden laptop story would have been a major story which

detailed proof that joe biden was involved in the biden family influence peddling, but yet we now know that because of elon musk and the twitter dump that the fbi was -- >> listen, i'm not going to disagroo he with you it s it sounds like it should have been disclosed immediately and it was disclosed immediately to the national archives and to the public ahead of the election that is a fair question. is that what you're investigation is about the disclosure of it to the public or is your -- and is that different than this other situation with the president trump which wasn't simply about disclosing to the public but about giving those documents back, right? >> exactly our investigation, it is not political. we just want to know what happened we still don't know what happened at mar-a-lago now we've heard trump's side of the story. which he said, when they were talking about there were classified documents pertaining to north korea, what he said, now this is what trump said, he

said all that was, was a personal letter from kim jong-un to trump i don't know if that is the extent of it or not. my theory is mar-a-lago was raided because the january 6 committee knew that there was some -- misunderstanding between the national archives and trump. they used that as an excuse to try to go on a phishing expedition to see if they could find any more damaging evidence pertaining to their investigation. that is a whole other story. but at the end of the day, any time you have government that has the authority to trigger a raid on the residence of any american, much less the former president of the united states, we need to know exactly why. and i'm not accusing joe biden of wrongdoing. i i this he made a made a simple mistake. and it is unfortunate that it is taking this long to get basic answers that we all should have. >> to congressman, it hasn't

been called speaker-gate but i don't know what it was you were there and saw it yesterday. a political cartoon it had speaker mccarthy finally got the gavel. and it was a little teeny tiny little gavel, it is like this big. is it the speakership the power of it this time around, is it less because of what went on last week and was that a good thing? how do you view it in hindsight now, now that it is all said and dond and moving on let's revisit it one more time. >> i hope it was a good thing. i hope it was a learning experience i hope it was a learning experience for the 21 to learn to declare victory sooner. i think that wednesday would have been enough time for them to have gotten what they wanted versus saturday. i hope it was a learning experience for kevin mccarthy and the new leadership team, that they better have all of the deals worked out prior to a hard deadline i hope it was a learning experience for our entire conference that we realize now how hard it

is going to be to get 218 strong-willed republicans to agree on policy. with respect to the speakership, no speaker is ever going to have the ieron grip that "nightly news" -- that nancy pelosi had and look the democrats are able to come together easier than republicans because they come together over spending money and more social programs we're trying to cut spending because we believe a lot of the inflation was triggered in this town because of the overspending and overstimulus so we're trying to rein government in and reduce the size of the federal government and that is cutting spending versus what the democrats want to do to unite themselves and that is increase spending. >> congressman, good to have you on are you a kentucky fan, a louisville fan both

>> i'm a kentucky loyal and murray state fan. >> you saw that alabama game what the hell was that with the wildcat do you have any explanation? i have to grill you on that? >> for the first time in my life we have no good basketball teams in kentucky. maybe next year. >> that is heresy. i don't know how that happened good to have you on. hope to have you on again, congressman. >> okay. in the meantime, want to talk about amazon saying it is going to be rolling out a new feature that would allow merchants to use amazon payment and delivery services, buy with prime launched an invite only offering and allowing to shop on third party sites without inputting payment information. and amazon saying that the 25% more people placed an order when that option was available on a merchant's website when it wasn't the offer competes with shopify

pay feature which is a payment option for online merchants looking to sell products directly to consumers. and i can't tell you how they should have been do this >> i have had it i've had it for a long time. >> i don't know what sites you've had it on. >> sites i'm sure you would not be on. >> clearly not i this i this program is that much broader program than what is -- >> it is great you don't have to type in all of your information >> you may have been on. we talked to amazon for a long time about this kind of feature. they've long wanted to compete with spotify -- or shopify, i should say, in terms of this input. >> the amazon pay, where you have the button and all you have to do is type in your amazon password it immediately populates -- >> go go and a couple of others have it. but it is very limited you may have had a different

experience when we come back, a special interview with jess capital co-founder paul tudor jones and t-mobile ceo mike siefert, erooting up in the rankings of amica's most justice companies. we'll bring you all of the details when squawk comes right back ♪ welcome to a new era of energy. the first time you made a sale online was also the first time you heard of a town named... dinosaur? we just got an order from a dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first.

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welcome back to "squawk box. annual list of the america's most just companies is out this is just capital now ranking of corporations on issues like creating jobs and acting with integrity at the leadership level and providing benefits and work-life balance. and paul tudor jones is joining us, the legendary trader and founder of tudor and with us is mike siefert and t-mobile is ranking number 20 this year. it is nice to see you this morning. paul, i'll start with how you see the rankings this year, and how they changed but perhaps most importantly, and we're talking about this in the 6:00 hour, about outperformance how should we think about how these rankings relate to stock market performance >> well, the data is clear on that if you take the top 100

companies, what we call the just 100, since inception in 2019 the just 100 outperformed the russell 1000 it appears by about 13%. last year the just 100 outperformed the russell by 3% and outperformed the nasdaq by 20%. so, at least as far as the way that we interpret what the american public wants and that is our mission, is to basically poll the american public every year and find out what they think constitutes just behavior and then develop a set of metrics transparently and as honestly as we possibly can and measure companies performance against the desires and wishes of the american public and it is really clear if you do want the vast majority of americans who want your company is going to be rewarded in its stock performance. it is also on average going

to -- going to excel in a whole variety of methods, such as return on equity, such as profit margin, such as paying dividends. the just 100 paid five times the amount of dividends that the rest of the russell paid so, i think, you know, all of the tax on esg and investment performance, i don't think they're looking at the data. certainly they're not looking at the data as it applies to just capital and the 1,000 companies that we rank >> mike, do you think about -- do you think these lists when you manage do you think about -- and do you put this in an esg bucket? what is this to you. >> we don't think about the list we think about the outcomes. and paul, thank you for your important work and thanks for having us. this is important topic. and i think it is important that we recognize that what just capital is doing here is asking the american public what is

important and that is what t-mobile does. that is the core of our business strategy is to be the best in our space at understanding of what people are looking for. loving customers and putting them first and changing the rules of the industry in their favor. so it is about really understanding people, it is not surprising that we would wind up on a list like this. and of course today a big part of the world wants to know that we're doing well by doing good that we have our eye on sustainability and leaders in deni >> and the pushback on esg, to the degree that -- and i don't want to conflate the justice capital list with esg, but i think a lot of the issues are described as being similar over the last six months to a year there has been a pushback across the board >> i think it is okay to be cynical. i think it is okay to make sure companies are not out there wasting money. but when you invest nyour capitl

in such a way that comports with what your customers are looking for, that is good business that is not making a list. that is doing work that your customers will appreciate and they will choose you for and for us that is the case. >> what do you think of the conflation or not of just thf en looking at over all of these years. >> well, i think a lot of it is because esg is in correctly characterized. it should be sge clearly when you -- when environment comes first, it actually, in our rankings, comes way down the list. what comes first in our rankings, 44% of our rankings are all centered around worker issues number one issue is are you paying a fair and living wage.

that is 21% of the just ranking. and that is up from 9% just a few years ago. so, americans are becoming hyper focused as they should be on worker treatment and welfare who is possibly, who remotely could be against that. obviously the more our workers are paid, the happier they are the more productive they are the better society is going toe be better products, more capital, more money, more resources it is good for everybody so you have to be really careful. i think so much of esg is politicized because of the fact that the environmental part of that bucket seems to drive or -- they would like to believe that the environmental part drives it but the most important thing by a wide margin is how we pay and treat our work force >> but paul, i'll give you an example. down in florida, as you very well know, there was a big debate between governor desantis

and disney no longer run by bob chapek but bob iger over what might have been described as social issues, i would have imagined -- and the question is whether that would end up on your criteria if you will, but people -- at the time disney thought that it was trying to work on behalf of its employees and then there was sort of a woke/anti--woke as you know very well. >> i'm probably not the right person to ask that question to because if you ask the american public, two-thirds of the american public want ceos to lead with integrity and to be highly ethical >> right. >> i don't think for me personally, i would disagree with the american public i don't like to see companies involved necessarily in a variety of social issues

i certainly don't like and most of the american public agrees to see companies involved in political campaigns and political contributions. for me personally and the american public agrees, it is not the purvey of corporations as far as governor desantis goes, today he's my favorite son because in just about 20 minutes he's getting ready to announce a plan to restore the everglades so please don't make me say something about myboy today when he's at the top of my list of the do-gooders. >> mike, similarly, how do you deal with the political issues that might be described as social issues at your company right now. >> a company like t-mobile, we have 110 million customers from every state in the country and just about from every walk of the life we can't afford to take sides on political issues but we do have core values and that is what i think is consistent with a lot of measures on this list. look at the issue that paul just

talked about, worker pay we were one of the first companies to come out with a nationwide $20 minimum wage over two years ago. we've been consistent strong payer. yesterday i announced because of inflation a one-time $1,000 check to every single one of our workers nationwide, including people that answer the phone or man our shores, who will make a big difference for we just released a one-time 50% bonus in the stock grants and stock grants at t-mobile are for every single employee. so everyone is an owner and when you work with us, you deal with somebody who acts like a owner and this year we put that 50% higher because we know inflation is touching everybody. >> and i ask because your in a relatively regulated business. >> we are. >> and you have to deal with politicians a lot. >> we do and our employee pack makes donations politically, but we do it roughly 50/50 across bothsides of the aisle

it is not about political issues, it is about making sure that our people have a chance to educate lawmakers on issues that effect our industry. >> paul, mike just mentioned the i-word, inflation. and i want to get your thoughts on where the market isright no and what do you think jay powell, who we'll hear from at 9:00 this morning, making a speech, may or may not say or do as '23 rolls on here >> i don't have any great insights into what he's going to say. i think it's a very difficult situation that he's in he's obviously trying to land a capsule on the moon as perfectly as he can in what is obviously the most challenging economic environment we've had in 40 years. i would say -- i would say it is made even more complicated by the warm weather we've got right. we're going to have really high

economic activity in the first quarter when seasonally we don't. there is huge amount of savings that consumers have from all of the covid relief bills, and the stimulus that was applied both from a fiscal and monetary standpoint so, he's faced with that very difficult proposition of working that down without breaking things and i think it is going to even more complicated by the fact that if i just look at kind of our internal work for flows for the stock market, you've probably got something just under a trillion dollars of excess demand in u.s. stocks where is the selling going to come to offset that. that demand is coming from buybacks from a corporate line from buybacks and m&a. and that is -- that is a significant amount everything being the same, you think the stock market would be

up 7% or 8% this year. obviously the selling either the stock market will be up 7% or 8%, or jay powell, if he can't get inflation under control, will raise rates up to a point that creates enough of an economic contraction to cause retail to off load some of the stocks that they bought in '21, and '20 which was obviously a record it will require something negative to happen to create the stock market to go down meaningfully we will have to -- either inflation will have to be too high or you have to overtighten to create something, some major economic contraction to make the market go down absent that, the market is going to stay strong absent that, you think that wages will stay firm. >> but paul, is the absent part of it, is it going to be absent

that >> i kind of think -- i kind of think that they'll stop short of breaking the economy a lot of it depends on how inflation plays out. again, we haven't -- we've only got really one other period in time in the '70s, and very different circumstances in some situations and very similar in others and it is -- it's -- i'd like to give you a better answer, i don't have a critical ball on this one. >> paul, we don't like certain as pecks of what the fed has to do to -- to get inflation under control. one of which is looking ascance wage gains so please don't yell at me and say your daughter hates me or anything

>>-f my favorite person to talk with. >> let's say you set market rates, all of the company you deal with set market rates above where they should be to bring in workers. because you're good intentions once again you have good intentions so you exacerbate the entire wage price spiral, which causes the fed to go much higher than it would have had to go in the first place which causes a recession, which many more people than you helped with the higher market -- higher than market wage gains aren't hurt by the subsequent recession does that ever enter your mind >> it absolutely enters my mind. it is a paradox, isn't it? it is a conundrum. having said that most of the inflation we're see right now is not because of the fact that the american worker is getting their fair share of the pie, right if you think about 50 or 60 years ago, when we had a much more resilient middle class than

we do today. profit maeshlgs were closer to 12% and it is not so much that american workers are -- are getting some extraordinary amount of what all our efforts, ie corporate revenue, what the entire stakeholders are capable of generating. so, i think that the inflation that we have right now is because primarily because of extraordinary fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus, not because of the fact that workers are getting a fair share for a change so, that would be the way i'd answer your question but clearly what i get excited about, when i see the announcement of bank of america paying a $22 minimum wage for all of their employees on the way to '25, that is a good thing for america. that creates more demand by those employees and creates a bigger pie for all of us

>> well let me ask mike that question are you seeing more demand and is this infliation hitting people what are you seeing in the store right now. >> it is a good time to be there wireless and the part of it is that we're in a category that people want that makes it different than the '0 8 recession when we weren't using our smartphones. >> is there a distinction, we've heard from amazon that people were buying bigger tvs and they downgraded to buying smaller tvs. >> we're side-eyeing the future because we're worried, but if a recession does come, we're ready. people are buying up our rate card, our most popular plan because they can't get enough of the product that we sell in this industry >> and that is the monthly rate plan. >> absolutely. >> what about the devices. everybody wants to know about the devices. what is selling and what is not. >> the high end smartphones from

both companies so, look, what we're selling is important to consumers and within that category they're very well may be a flight to value. there might be a questioning of over this next year of whether people have the right setup and we're ready for that as-t mobile which is always been positioned to take care of people with variable. >> i have to ask because people are focused on apple and inventory and since your on the other end of it you know about the inventory. is it caught up or not >> we're in much better shape than a couple of months ago. >> so that means you have enough. >> supply has come down -- >> we're in stock now. if you come to our website, and you want an iphone 14 pro, we've got you. >> and investors thought maybe there was some pick up or catch up that was happening. >> we're in stock. there might have been a transference from q4 in q1 we'll have to wait and see what happens. >> thank you for coming in

thank you both for bringing us the just 100 list. and congratulations for being on it >> thanks. >> talk to you soon. we'll have more coverage of the just 100 here on cnbc. go to cnbc.com/just 100 and catch more interviews with members of the just 100 this week on cnbc and including the ceos of nike and vm wear. >> coming up richard fisher on the biggest risks facing the fed including the risks that it leans too hard into its campaign of rising rates that is ovabe 5 and maybe above 5.25 stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ressure points and keep you both comfortable all night. the queen sleep number 360 c2 smart bed is only $899 - save $200. ends monday

welcome back to "squawk box. take a quick look at futures 155 now in the red on the dow and the nasdaq also down some of the worst levels we've seen, down about 80 points s&p giving back about 20 regional fed presidents mary dally and rafael bostick both starting the week by talking about the possible of interest rates heading above 5% bostick said that he would look more favorably on a 25 basis point hike to the federal funds rate if thursday confirms that

inflation is actually cooling. joining us right now is former dallas fed president richard fisher he's a senior advisers to barkleys he serves on the boards of tenant health care and warner brother as discovery and a cnbc contributor. and richard, welcome >> good morning. >> let's talk about what this means with the fed we keep thinking that the fed is going to try to get out of the way, trying to get out of the picture a little bit but it is still the biggest thing that is moving the markets right now. >> the fed is to money what georgia is to football and i take mary and mr. bostick seriously. they're both highly regards within the fomc. and i know mary is held in very high regard and so is rafael so they expect to sort of a toss up between 25 and 50 basis points we'll see what the cpi does. but the most important thing they were saying, particularly mary, is the feds fund rate is

likely to end up above 5%. and i don't know if the market is fully discounted that yet so, becky, woe'll just have to see. i'll say the following and i've said this several times now, the fed does not want to do two errors in a row. they blew it on the transitory argument, they're embarrassed by it and the last thing they want is to make a second mistake which is to stop too soon. and are they likely to go too far? yes. >> wouldn't that be a mistake, too? isn't it a mistake of going too far or stopping too soon >> well, yes but they also have an institutional memory we go back to the 1929, 1928 period when the fed as it was then basically the new york fed raised what is known as the discount rate. took it from a little over 3% to over 6% and in real terms 7% by

early 1929 that killed the market created a panic. and killed the economy we know what ensued. they're well aware of what history has taught them. but at the same time, the principle job of any central bank is to slay the inflation dragon and we want to do it and they're bringing it back to 2% they're not going to change the target despite what some people speculate and mary dally made clear yesterday and they still have a ways to go. we'll see how much is being approved on the services sector side but employment is still very strong and what powell refers to as the core, core measurement is still running pretty rich and are just going to have to make sure that they dealt with that issue. >> richard, the meeting minutes that we got last week from the december meeting did seem to suggest there is a little bit of dissension in the ranks, at least a argument went back and

forth, what is worse, hurting poor people because of unemployment or because of inflation. they're both pretty terrible >> right now they're hurting investors. we're still going to -- through an adjustment process of a whole generation that was used to cost free money and now they have to look at the long-term future differently against a hurdle rate when you have the two-year treasury or five-year treasury where it is, even though they've come down a little bit you still have a comparative cost you discount future cash flows and profits, against a different hurdle than you were before and you got so used to forever, for an entire generation of investors so i don't think that adjustment is gone and i will continue to see volatility this year and i would not be smug about the thought that the fed is going to ban the 2% target or rates will come back willy-nilly. it doesn't work that way and they're determined to make sure again that they squeeze all impulses for inflation out of

the system >> if that is their first and most important mission, if they don't want to be embarrassed again, does that mean we're definitely heading for a downturn, potentially a recession this year? if you're intent is to make sure you do it to make sure you continue shooting until you see the whites of its eyes and make sure that you don't have any rising inflation, it seems like it is harder and harder to come up with the idea of a soft landing. >> i'm not so sure i mean, so far the numbers given the employment picture, it is possible they could engineer a soft landing i'm rather confident they will owe it is a doable we have excess from the standpoint of price pressures in the service sector and particularly in the wage sector but, you know, we have 3.5% unemployment that is historically remarkable. we never dreamed when i was at the fed that we'd get that low so i think it is doable, becky

a and we'll have to hold our breath and see if they could get it done. >> richard, what do you watch for the cpi. if the expectation is to it to be flat and consumer prices, what happens if it is hotter, what happens if it is just in line, what happens if some shocking things and it actually falls? >> well first of all, you look at the pce if you're at the fed. and i think that is the principle index you should be watching i would also be watching and we don't hear much talk about this, you might want to drill down on it owe the trim mean dow speculations, the cleveland fed does the cpi and i think they would watch that very, very carefully and along with the new york fed consumer indicator that has gained increasing respect at the table. those would be the ones i would be watching. we'll just have to be careful not to overemphasize the cpi we'll have to look at the service sector side relative to

wages. but it is the pce and the trim measurements that mean the most to me. >> richard, thank you. we'll talkto you again soon. good to see you. >> thank you, all. bye-bye. coming up, jim cramer first take on the trading day and then at 10:00 don't miss a first interview with regeneron interview leonard shelfler quack box will be right back when you stay at a vrbo the host doesn't stay with you. because without privacy in your vacation home, it isn't really a vacation...

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let's get town down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. a whole bunch of things we could talk about this morning. i was curious about what you thought of -- we had the ceo of t-mobile and we were talking about the capital 100 list and we talked about what is happening with inflation and with the customer. and then we got into the apple of it all. where are you on apple right now? he said that inventories are back and i don't know what you think that means about catch up in the last quarter versus this quarter at this point. >> well, i think that, look, mike siefert is unbelievable and he is the guy with a better touch on apple that an all of the analysts that comment on it. i think apple this quarter, if there is supply constraint, there is nothing you could do. and people said you know what, maybe they feel confident enough they don't need to say right now that things are not great.

but mike is just the winner in the group. and it is really interesting because we talked with my team this morning, john lease would be with competitors and i think he has the pulse and i think it was good for apple and fisher, that was a great interview. made me feel terrific. and so you have a couple of interviews this morning that made me feel be a little bit more constructive, despite the fact that interest rates aren't going right today and we do have a lot of downgrades by analysts. >> let me throw out another name microsoft. we were talking to liz hoffman about her story about this $10 billion investment that they're going to make in chat gpt. of course this is the ai software that everybody is talking about these days you think this is a big boon for them >> no. look, i like the product, it is fun to play with it is kind of a game and i think maybe it could be more than

that microsoft is azure and this morning we've got web bush saying it is okay and other people are saying they're not going to make the numbers. in the end, we sold microsoft for the first time in the charity trust in ages and the reason that we did is amazing interview, that nadella did which i thought was about as downbeat of anything i've heard in a long time. >> maybe an upbeat note, coinbase cutting about 1,000 jobs this morning? >> look, i think that when you read that the -- there are people from sam bankman-fried's outfit trying to talk, whoever can get in line to speak to the u.s. attorney. i'm not saying coinbase is involved with them i'm saying -- i like mike very much, but this whole thing is a house of cards the nft, does anyone -- i don't

know -- what do you do with a nonfungible token? >> $37.15. is there a bottom here for you >> look, it bounced yesterday, but we're in a different kind of world now. and i think people realize that perhaps the whole thing was manipulated. i read john stark. he's a great follow. he's saying you got to get out of everything involved with this there isn't anything that's not going to be manipulated and investigated and the s.e.c. is going to come in and sweep everything gary gensler has had it. there were a lot of republicans who were urging him to say, listen, fintech is here to stay. i think he's had it. i don't think anyone should be in any of these. i think everything should be sold >> bold call, jim. we're going to see you in just a couple of minutes and we're going to be -- >> thank you for t fti. heull me

>> jonathan golub is going to be here we're going to talking markets with him after this. to adapt in the changing world, you could hire a professor of theoretical mathematics. we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night. that's it. to maximize profitability. morning. i have quarterly numbers that are beautiful. and forecast revenue from every corner of your organization. is that important? or you could use workday. the finance hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. for a solve problems like a genius world. workday. for a changing world.

a little more than half an hour until the opening bell on wall street. joining us now is jonathan golub

from credit suisse we haven't talked in awhile, jonathan what's -- 2023, how are you feeling? what's your forecast >> i think, joe, there's two stories. over the near term, i think equity investors are going to be really excited about the fact that these inflation numbers are coming down and they're going to be coming down pretty hard, especially on the good side, and this is going to actually empower the consumer they're going to have -- their wages are going to remain sticky but the things they buy are going to be coming down -- not coming down, but the growth rate will be lower. the problem is, if wages remain sticky, even if it comes down, the fed is going to have to come in and take that punch bowl away it's going to be a story of two halves a much more health, vibrant half and a back half which is going

to be a little bit more difficult. >> the revisions we've seen for earnings, jonathan, enough what's it going to be like have they been lower enough to be a good earnings period in the next three weeks >> you know, joe, these numbers are just collapsing. we have the earnings estimates for the fourth quarter, they're down something like 8 or 8.5% over the last three months which is normally, analysts overestimate how things are going to be. right before earnings season, the numbers adjust down and then you get a beat there's a little bit of a pattern to this. we are way, way weaker than those numbers. it's pretty broad based. a couple of areas are -- i would say, most concerning, or should be in focus, but tech companies in particular are looking really, really sloppy and i think that that's going to be -- that's what we've seen in the last few quarters. i think it's going to last for a

bit longer there are certain areas that look a little bit stronger, industrials look stronger, energy looks a bit stronger, and if you want to be defensive, you know, utilities or reits look a little bit stronger. but the trend is overall down. i'll just note one more thing on the earnings front if you look at the expectations for the whole market, it's something like down 2.5% expected earnings growth for the first quarter. the first negative quarter in awhile but the median companies, the typical company is up pretty nicely, like 3% or something like that. the majority of the names are going to have an okay earnings number, but the big -- the bigger cap names thatdominate the index are going to be lousy. >> what do you have for the s&p earnings

>> we have $215 of earnings which is something in the ballpark of, like, a 4% negative growth rate on earnings, not for this quarter, but for 2023. >> where should multiples be given what the fed is involved with >> the multiples i think do something strange, they actually rise a little bit even though there's this weakness. so i think that the part of the story is that we avoid a recession. the bankruptcies and lawn defaults and those things that typically happen when you're going into recession are probably not going to materialize. and that's going to push valuations up a little bit, but the earnings picture is going to be sloppy. if we look at last year, what we had was okay earnings, and a collapse in multiples. i think this this year we're going to have weak earnings and -- >> we're right at fair value right now then

>> yeah, i think that we're probably something close to fair value on the market. >> on the s&p. >> our estimate is the market is up, you know, mid -- low to mid single digits which is -- given by historical bullish tone, is probably the worst year that i'm forecasting. 4% or so return for the rest of the year but not a disaster >> the -- and what's the terminal rate? 5.25 or 5? >> yeah, you know, i think the story here is that the fed is ultimately going to have to be more restrictive than everyone things the numbers are going to come collapsing down. but if the wages stay sticky at a higher level, the fed is going to have to do one or two things, we're going to have to take interest rates higher than we all expect, or they're going to have to take that 5% rate on fed funds and keep it there and not

drop those numbers down like everyone expects either way, the fed is going to be more restrictive than equity investors think right now. >> okay, jonathan, thanks a lot. it's been awhile. >> the dow is down by 107 now. that does it for us today. buckle up, we've got some breaking news. we're going to get right over to steve liesman. he has the latest comments from jay powell >> fed chair jay powell in a speech largely focused on central banking independence and less so on the economy and monetary policies. he'll say it provides the public with immeasurable pechbts. he says restoring price stability can require unpopular policies in the short term and the fed must earn its independence and do so by deliveri