>> the initial reflexes that it's not lasted. wouldn't it be fitting if the s&p were right under 4 thousands, right under the 200-day ample. it tends to do that, get into place for a big test. >> we'll see looking forward to talking tomorrow i'll you back on the desk tomorrow "fast money" begins right now. right now, comeback kid, netflix flying higher after hitting rock bottom last night it is a "wednesday" thing or "stranger" thing or ha harry & megan" thing later we fire off the 2023 acronyms those pictures are like from 1990 our something [ laughter ]

i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money. in the heart of times square on the desk tine a full house. we start with netflix. the stock has more than doubled. media stocks, by the way, have been having a good start, too. does netflix's resurgence in particular set the stage for any broader comeback >> tim, you bought netflix when it was close to its lows. >> yeah, but it wasn't that good in fact, i bought it probably within about 20% of its lows

1/2 netflix's case, a question about subgrowth. were they suddenly forced to move into the basic with ads, and then get into the password sharing? antidotes for slowing growth, maybe. i think those are key dynamics, but i think media stocks overall, i think the streaming world has to prove profitable, and i think netflix is as profitable as anybody. this was something you wanted from this company. their content continues to knock it out of the park white it's not cheap, you have to like the momentum here. it was cheap 40% of the way up,

now it's starredling to get expensive once again which leads me to believe into earning tim's right. if you have enjoyed this ride top up side, you have to take profits. >> barclays out with a note today, should we focus on -- right, they certainly don't want it -- >> i would say this i think the team is the higher -- i think the greater likelihood the greater disappointment, because investors -- to guy's point, up 100% in five or six months, i

think the fundamentals come back, and especially, again, the back and forth, every other day, and i think ultimately the fundamentals are weak, and they guide that way for the next quarter or so, then with rates staying put, i think the it comes back in focus. i think they probably get hit. >> karen >> i agree i'm long, but this one this run, i think, is too far. i'm going to look to sell some upside calls i would think it would be sort

of ripe for a bit of a comeback. >> what if the subscriber growth is there, and specifically if they're capturing those people who are borrowing passwords, or stealing netflix, i think is more accurate. >> around the holiday time, my brothers were bragging, dude, you have your password no shame in my household people don't understand, to me that's all gravy for net flex,y the basic with ads, is a bit scary. if i can save $5 and cut something, i do it, whereas i waste monies in ways you cannot imagine on a day-to-day basis. >> you save $5 on user cable bill so you can spend $7 on your star becomes coffee? >> yes i've just acknowledged, it

doesn't make sense i worry about basic with ads, because i worry that some may trade down. >> i agree >> with 20 stocks that actual already were down last year at some point, so they rallied off the lows, and a lot of us remember what we saw in 2001 and 2002 for a lot of bombed-out names. some of these names will make it out of the cycle a lot may not. i'm looking at roku. it's up 15%, 16% for the year. it's still down 70%. it's never going back there, people >> there's no need for roku. >> you can have fund with these stocks lyft is up like 20% or something since jack came on and recommended. they're great trading vehicles, but i don't think the valuations with match up a bit. it's going to take longer here

when you say it got destroyed last year, it actually did -- because it doesn't deserve to be at 700, you know what i mean >> would we ever say did it ever deserve to be here in meta comes to mind, for instance. i think it never deserved to be south of 9 on. i think here it's cheap as well, but we'll have to see. i mean, this one, i think -- i think what they have to say in earnings is very important the direction spend is very important, unlike netflix, which is in the middle of a change -- but they could make a massive

psychological shift quickly. >> i think that would have a dramatic effect. whoever the voice-over is talked about warner bros. up -- was that you >> 30%, but think about this, whoever that speaker is for cnbc, the voice-over person, but it was you -- was up 30% i mean, this is a super levered one, this is something that could be up another 20% easy. and we know -- what are the numbers on meta?

this is the thing that is interesting. netflix is coming off a fall where they had five of their best releases of all time, the onion thing, i don't know what you call it, the glass onion >> it's actually an excellent movie. i enjoyed it a great deal. >> see >> i will tell you kate hudson made her theatrical comeback in that movie. >> i didn't know we had lost her. >> well, for what it's worth netflix now you have to be tact kale -- tactical it takes nothing away from management or the company. it's just run too much too fast. >> they've had nice runs since the beginning of this year into

earnings the positions seem precarious there. some of the names are hard guy said on many occasions that a lot of meta's problems were -- but then when you think about semis, look at intel and micron, they're up 11%, 12%, after getting absolutely destroyed when you can focus -- intel has obviously mis-executed i mean, those are some areas that i would focus on to me

those are less interesting at this point i will point out the difference between the kemmis and qqqs, they continue to make lower, and technology is making lower lows. as much as we've had -- lower lows since november 30s, if you look at the semis, they're actually up above that are 200 we certainly have gotten through a lot of the inventory they have kind of head serve since an almost 40% ally. our next guest warns the recent market gains -- mike wilson is from morgan stanley. great to have you with us. >> thanks, melissa

good to see you. >> everyone thinking the first half of the year will be terrible, and the second half much better, and maybe people aren't anticipating how bad it could get in the first half. we're about to impractical on earnings season. will that be the rude awakening? >> obviously we don't know exactly how it's going to play out. then hopefully that leads to the next bull market, could be a good second half we're all kind of create terse checking our own calls i want to be sure we weren't part of the consensus to be fooled so we asked the question, what could go wrong i think one way they could go wrong, we actually talked to people who were bearish for the first half, but they're not

positioned for it, or they don't think it's going to be that bad. a lot of clients think we'll probably be in recession, but they don't seem to be afraid of it there's also a chase we avoid the recession. the one thing we're more confident about, we think that's another area that investors are a bit complacent we do think this earnings season will be the beginning of the reset on 2023, which is really what is going to drive stock the full-year estimate has to come down. >> mike, thanks for coming on. is it predicated on the fed staying where it is? what do you think happens with the fed this year? >> our call is predicated mostly on the earnings, and they've already proven that's correct right? normally when you've seen the data that we have seen, of

course they can't cut rates with inflation where it is. that's a change from prior cycles we think that stays the course they won't be slashing rates into a growth slowdown the real driver of our call is we think negative operating leverage is flowing through. and i think this is a very under-appreciated development during covid we over-earned during the pandemic, because there was positive operating leverage, and costs weren't increasing as much, and costs are increasing faster than revenues that negative has to play through, and we think people will be surprised how dramatic the earnings cuts are. >> mike, do you care at all about the dollars? the fx headwind and certainly the translation for that was certainly difficult. netflix will have something good to say about the dollar. do you even care about this?

on some level i don't care about it when people talk about fx and currency neutral it was one of the big headwinds, and that's why the -- look, the dollar has come off its high. we think the dollar will be weaker, and there's better growth outside the u.s that's an important story, meaning eventually we think there will be another bull market part of that story, tim, is a weaker u.s. dollar how do you think about the laying effect of the fed's policy do you not take that off the

table, because perhaps the lag effect could hit the economy and hit companies pretty hard somewhere in the back half >> bear marks are all about time and price. most bear markets last about 15 months or so, so i'm hoping, you know, 3,000 number or something like that, 3 thousands, 3200, something like that will price ultimately the damage we foreseed from all these factors. i'm hoping that the market can price that relatively quickly sometime in the first three, four months of the year. that was not a consensus call six months ago, but i think the magnitude is more dramatic. >> mike, great to speak with you. thank you, as always. >> thanks. good to see you. as low as 3,000 in the first four months. he tactically went bullish, to

the penny, as carter said. so i think you discount what he says to your peril i don't know about 3,000, but we've been in the 3400 camp for a while. everything he said to me is spot on michael was says hi -- we have consensus that's still up there, i think close to 220, something like that. even if you were to pit a 17 multiple, and you guys might say that's really generous, on 2 hunlz, that gets you to 3400 the base case scenario probably gets you, if earnings do come down in a meaningful way over the next few months, gets you down to 3400, listen -- tepper

mentioned if -- he was not suggesting we were going there, but he threw those numbers out the math is certainly compelling to the down side you know, the next couple quarters are critical to forming that the other dynamic that i don't believe that rates are necessarily done here moving higher on the long end that which we used to value equities i don't know that they have to go a whole lot higher, and i just look that the ten year has actually been defending that up trend that goes back to the early part of the year i look at where the banking have performed, and obviously this is a strange time for banking who have rallied very hard into earnings this is a case where i think they have outperformed the rest of the market. 15 year? 30 year? how about neither?

we have the details next, and fedex say good-bye to its sunday we'll have more. we're back in two. let's get started. bill, where's your mask? i really tried sleeping with it, everybody. but i'm done struggling. now i sleep with inspire. inspire? inspire is a sleep apnea treatment that works inside my body with just the click of this button. a button? no mask? no hose? just sleep. yeah but you need the hose, you need the air, you need the whoooooosh... inspire. sleep apnea innovation. learn more, and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com i count on personalized financial advice from my ameriprise advisor. she knows my goals and can help me reach them with confidence. the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. [office sounds]

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wells fargo is reducing its exposure to home mortgages it's also shall recollectioning the mortgage servicing portfolio, and more job cuts one the division karen, is this a big deal? >> i don't think so. i feel like it's been happening at wells fargo in slow motion for quite some time. a slowdown, which has been manufactured by the fed, which they say is acceptable damage, because they need to cool inflation. i don't think this changes the wells fargo story. they can buy loans, buy mortgages to keep them on the balance sheets, and mortgage servicing, if rates go down, then mortgage servicing rates value will go down. >> maybe this is just a symbol of the housing market overall,

and people wanting to take out loans. it doesn't move the needle, i agree. we're years into the very specific wells fargo problems. with that said, you know, karen had an unbelievable call back in 2020, when she was a teenager. the question now, is the run over is it not expensive enough, or at least on par with some of the more expensive names i think you sell it into earnings. >> not to make it a game, would you ream wells fargo versus bank of americaal this point? >> i would probably by lock -- when i hear that statement, i hear it as a risk management statement. >> you mean they're paring back? >> yes

it means they're evaluating the risks. these are relationships they have if you look at commercial and industrial loan growth, that was one things that was an exciting change in the banking business something you could make an argument, so banks start reeling in credit, it's not good for the economy. >> that's exactly what jerome powell wants. >> yeah. listen, we talked about it, i think, yesterday we have a battle here, and i'm not going to play your game, but it's jamie dimon versus moynihan at bank of america like, that to me is the story of the first half of this year, the trends that we'll see. what that means for consumers, access to credit, that sort of thing. a lot of guys feel like the consumer is still in a pretty good chart i have a chart here of mortgage originalations, and what happened, we had like everything went haywire, they doubled and

now they have come all the way back here. if you're wells fargo, why wouldn't you be retrenching here >> back to the consumer. the consumer theoretically is still pretty good. the wagegains have been made b the consumer inflation is in coming down. many consumers are still employed. >> all good things without question consumer credit, record number of credit card debt, so that's the counter-argument to the consumer's in great shape. i say it all the time, as long as things are going along, everything is fin, people will spend money. you get a hiccup, then they start saying should i be buying that starbucks that tim has absolutely no problem buying, but had seems to be focused on his $5 espn. >> at least you like the games

people play. >> yes. >> the spinners? it's a song, mel i think it might have been >> we'll talk about it during the break. here's what's coming up next on "fast money." >> announcer: sunday morning brings the -- never machined fedex paring back deliver yes, sir as e-commerce falters. more on the trimming. plus microsoft's artificial initiative what a possible a.i. deal could mean for the company you're watching "fast money. we're back right after this.

fedex said it would further slash sunday deliveries. the new part of a $3.7 billion cost-cutting strategy, the ceo calling it an e-commerce reset what does this mean. is this a fedex-specific thing, karen? >> it's both specific, but it's broader than that. they spend so much money gearing up, but they talked about keeping high density that's good. it's more profitable to do that. it's really expensive to do the outer, less, right i think this makes sense for them you saul the rae-through to u.p.s. >> tim >> it's always a fedex problem the sickly cal is something we understand it will have that moment where it's a great company there was a lot of upgrates.

i floe jim cramer got excited. i still think there's a case where you have something to prove here i think they have a couple quarters to prove it in the face -- let's not forget, that announcement doesn't say great things about their business. i'm not so scherr they'll have the same pricing power the next time >> it stands to reason we go back and talk a look at that i have a delivery, an apology to tim seymour, the spinsers are in group that said "games people play." i shot him down, but he proved to be right. >> i broaden this out to retailers, too i mean, this kind of return situation has become very expensive, too it may be a lot of behaviorally

retailers. fine ship aft packages to karen here in new york city, it's high density, but it makes sense that they would have to cut back. >> the return things, as a consumer, you are trained to not pay for shipping and not pay for returns. i want something to come here immediately for free, and i want to send it back for free as well you would think that has to change, and part of this anointment, if things are changesing, i don't know if what the read-through would be to amazon there, but also amazon, if you want to send it back, you know what? we'll just credit you. we don't want to deal with that. coming up, the a.i. initiative -- guy? >> you know, there was a time -- i know we have to do a commercial, but you would go to a store, try on a pair of shoes,

if they fit, you take them home. >> different sizes of the same shoe. >> i don't do that maybe the rest of the united states should stop doing that. maybe we could get some of the trucks off the road and there wouldn't be mind-numbing traffic. a.i., more on that next, and we've got more new year acronyms we'll lay them out when "fast money" returns ♪ ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco.

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another check on markets, stock closing near their highs today. the only negative sector was staples, the xlp down 10%, and boeing down nearly 1% after the plane maker announced deliveries and jump in orders boeing still the best performer dow stock over the past month. microsoft is reportedly planning to invest an additional $10 billion to open a.i., the

start-up that's taken brent thil of jeffries, welcome great to have you with us. it's really strategic long term. if you asked the system who won the world cup, it says my database is limited back to 2021 so obviously there is incredible amount of promise, but today, in terms of real time, it's not there. we think over time, with the help of microsoft and chatgbt, we think it's -- if you envision a world where you open up powerpoint for the "fast money" team, write an update on what's

happened so far in 2023, you go into powerpoint, put a family in the mountain with a ski resort in the back, you can help the system self-population outlook, respond to an email, you know, with this simp term. if you think about what they can do, they can fuse it with their applications, their a.i. technology inside the apps, you look at azure, that's a huge opportunity as well. so microsoft is not alone. adobe has a product called sensei long term we'll see, but nobody will use this looking for a coffee shop or near term, warriors tickets or concert tickets long term.

again, short term it's super promising. we think we have an early view, where it can be very impactful across the microsoft suite again, i'm talking aboute from the financial analyst perspective. i have come up with like 20 different examples of how they use it whether they po the it into practice or not, i don't know, but i think there's a clear road map that we see. >> brent, from a financial standpoint, call it intermediate term, do you think that microsoft would have the best success disrupting google search or do you think long term because of the lead theft in the productivity tools, will be integrating that with outlook, 365, that sort of thing. where would you, if you're looking five years out, expect microsoft to get the biggest financial benefit? >> i think in productivity and

a.i.-infused i wouldn't take on google. i wouldn't try it. my view would be stick with what you're good at microsoft has done this in the past they got nokia, other areas they shouldn't have gone. stay true to what you are, enterprise software at the core. yes, is there some help this could help with binge? is there some other consumer apps they could build? perhaps. i used to be a microsoft developer, and have covered it for 20 years every time they get outside of their core lane, they screw it up this is helping with productivity again, this is a call option, and i may be totally wrong, but there's no doubt a call option to help make search better we use outlook as a firm, and try to search ago e-mail you go to gpsmail, your personal

can the, you can find things a lot faster it's basic things they could use to help make these applications smarter. >> brient, thanks. >> thank you. by the way, we asked chatgpt, could microsoft beat google for fun this is what chatgpt responded with -- it's possible by investing in openai microsoft could potential use it to improve its search features. >> that's exactly what brent just said. >> oh, man >> do you remember watson, though that was going to be the a.i. thing, transformative for ibm before it was. >> right. >> timing is everything. we're talking long term. how about the short term what i want to hear about is

where there's market pressure. it's really been their golden goose, certainly a cash for you them right here and now. i think we may start to hear about some of that. >> interesting, jim cramer this morning on "squawk on the street", wonderful show. >> fun program. >> 9:00 to 10:00. jim said he sold microsoft in his charitable trust, because the interview that was cited he talked about things somewhat dramatic for the short-term forecast for this company. it's a more reasonable valuation at 22 times next year's numbers, but you've got to believe there's a demand issue for microsoft. coming up, we're getting ready to reveal more acronyms. guy and tim on deck. are the other traders buying into their picks plus, one retailer going bonkers

today. what is behind this move we'll dive into the options pits for a look ahead much more coming up. [music - cover of blondie's “dreaming”] [music playing] ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪

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another day, another acronym. tonight guy and tim will spell out why they think gold will glitter in 2023. >> billy bob thornton, a huge fan of "fast money," he was in "friday night lights." he coached the team mojo i lost my mojo, but i'm looking to get it back in the form of these four thins "m" is metals. there's something going on in the gold market. i think silver has a run as well the "o" oih look at where it closed today all these oil services naimes. the "j" a battle of the johnsens -- >> nice. >> johnson controls

sustainability, that's a bit of a buzzword, sustainability i think that goes higher of course, the other "o" shoutout to warren buffett how are you doing, w.b.? objection dernal, they're buying back stock m.o.j.o. >> i set johnson controls and not johnson & johnson. how did you decide not johnson & johnson? >> i was weighing the two. it's a great company you start to get a little concerned on valuation johnson controls are off from the all-time high, so this was more a valuation thing you know, steve grasso last night was talking about sustainability i almost fell off my chair got me thinking. it's all full cycle here.

>> isn't johnson & johnson the battle of the johnsons [ laughter ] >> well, there's a great story about that in cnbc lore. we'll share it another time. >> a whole other show. tim? >> my acronyms is l.a.g.s. these are essentially companies that i think for various reasons were never participating in a post-pandemic rally. my "l" -- lyft this is a company that pre-pandemic had substantial problems i realize we certainly value companies differently. i still think be get to a bil billion. their problems are not the economy. their problems have been their own, and some of the dynamics. the "a" is airlines.

and what we heardfrom delta -- i'm long lyft, long delta. if you listen to the airlines they're talking about profitability levels that are at pre-pandemic levels. i don't think that delta will run away with it here, but it never got the reopening trade. "g" is gold. it lagged at a time when inflation was in your face, why isn't gold rallying? there's reasons why every day you can -- you own it for this reason and this reasons. except for the fact that now a dallas heart peaked, inflation has peaked, and finally s&p global, i think their recent investor day, until then i don't think people knew what to do with it. their info deal, i think it's very important

i also think in this environment they'll perform. l.a.g.s., companies we think they have not done or cycles have not allowed them to rally yesterday. >> the acronym for 2022 performed very well, l.i.v.e >> v was volatility, but -- e was. >> announcer:. that was up 60%. >> look at that. the l.i.v.e. trade. >> but i'm a humble man. i'm nothing going to talk about them >> i think it's an organic growth store story that within a multiple makes sense for this market, not yesterday's. investors adding bed bath & beyond to their carts today.

shares flying higher, as earnings disappoint, has the meme trade taken ahold oe nc again? we'll have more, next.

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bed bath & beyond surging higher, the retailer posted wide irthan expected losses bed bath also hiring a restru restructuring adviser. karen? >> the one thing we can look for in the short term, whether they're going to file or not, they have three tranching of debt due on february 1st if they don't pay them, they probably have a grace period, but if they don't, they're highly likely to file. february 1st is the date to watch. >> yes it's up 28% what do options traders say. they're betting this latest layoff is going in the right direct

mike >> most of it is actually looking at dates much mere data than the debt payments that karen was referring to the most active contracts were the two strike calls that expires at the end of this week. some of those actually traded as low as 17 cents before the stock saw that really. another 10%, do you see anything longer? >> yes, in contract quantity terms, this was the busiest single -- but it's a $2 stock. compares this to meta or something like that isn't apples to apples, but there's a lot of flow basically all the way out they're spending in this case, that's three options that expired, the longer data once costing longer than that president so, you know, i think it's a coin flip here.

i think it's better to wait until february 1st. >> a huge short interesting here, 33%, is it the stock even borrowable it seems right for a equity. >> that's a great point. a lot of times what you see is exactly that people can use optioning to get synthetically short. those are even pricier, because borrowing stock at this point is more of a challenge. mike, thank you. mike khouw of the action on bbby it's amazing what people think will happen, and why the stock would be up 28%. >> the short squeeze is what karen represented. so, there's different news flow. this has been a slow train wreck going back to even 2020, though. so cutting costs is not the answer. for more options action, tune in friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time

up next, we've got final trades

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it is time for the final

trade. tim? >> the johnson & johnson p. the brothers johnson were a great band, too. i think it would be tough to find this value in 2023. >> where there's not value, bed bath & beyond equity having said all that, i would not short it >> dan nathan? >> we used to call it johnny john and could still. >> if you look. >> epic. >> after the show last night, mel turned to me and said georgia's going to put up a 50 spot on tcu.

she was wrong. what people adopt realize about you, your knowledge about sports is -- valero into earnings on the 26th look what that stock did today. >> thank you for watching "fast money. for more fast we'll see you tomorrow "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm jtrying to make you a little money my job so entertain, teach, call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. this is a time o