back to you. >> fascinating part of the story. questioning the diligence, whether there was any from the well-known investors, fiduciaries. not brady and giselle. the other names you mentioned. that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street. "tech check" starts right now. good wednesday morning welcome to "tech check." why last year's worst performers on the dow are thriving to start 2023 then, is it time to start rethinking apple the analyst who slashed his price target this morning joins us have we reached a third act on streaming? why investors are not pulling the plug on streamers so far in the new year a check on the markets, as we begin this hour stocks are higher for the second day, adding to solid gains so far. the nasdaq, on pace for its first four-day win streak since

september. all 11 s&p 500 sectors are higher right now the nasdaq is the up performer the dow on the flat line within the dow, there seems to be a theme emerging the worst have become the best dom chu is here with the numbers. >> it's early in 2023. but some of the big elements we have seen play out, have to do with the big underperformers in the dow. the dow has been an outperformer we talked about the big losses with the nasdaq and the s&p 500 on a relative basis. the dow is down just about 7% over the course of the last one-year period. outperforming the indices. it is not, as tech media telecom ever, as others are. but there's names we want to focus on if you look at the three worst performing stocks, maybe not a

surprise you have to check out shares of disney, down 44% salesforce is down 48% and intel shares, losing half of their value, as well if you fast forward to what's happening in this very early part of 2023, those three stocks are among the top five best performing stocks on a year-to-day basis. disney shares up nearly 10%. same for salesforce and intel, as well. we look at the emerging themes that you just mentioned, maybe it's too early to be thematic just yet maybe the trades and investors are betting on for a turnaround story in 2023. >> my question is, is this just

bargain hunting like we're seeing in the job market like woarner brothers and discovery. peloton is up 28%? >> if you look at warner brothers, discovery. there's a lot of commentary about the lunch of its new plus platform is going to be something that drives a catalyst there. these are stocks that are down huge over the course of the last year if you look at wbd, warner brothers discovery, since the lows of last year, that's up 43%. that's a huge move off a very low base. with the three we're talking about, intel, disney, and salesforce two of the stocks have been valued as high growth opportunities. we're talking about price to earnings multiples on a forward estimated basis of in the 70-plus range. now, they're back down in the

20s. the one not like the others is intel. you've known this. intel has been traded as a value stock for the better part of the last tdecade it's never grown or fallen that much the one thing that the three have in common, is they are underperformers. only one of those names, actually pays a dividend and that's intel right? >> key point jon, you're calling it bargain hunting. and a soft landing that's pushing the names higher, initially. will the names keep the rally going? let's start with one of them, salesforce bernstein down to underperform to market perform. and lowering from 119 to 134 cost and staff productions may not be enough. and the slowing growth has been masked like mna.

joining us is steve grasso, cnbc contributor. the story when it comes to salesforce the market is bullish on the prospects. isn't the story growth growth has been decelerating for years. and you have to look at the stock-based compensation that's a huge part of the profitability or lack of it. >> it should be, in theory, the growth prospects but the whole tech sector has been trading on how many layoffs have they announced? meta announces layoffs and the stocks reach higher. the market is trying to decide layoffs. other hand, gross markets. will the layoffs cut enough costs to move forward?

if you look at the stock, go back to the chart on the stock that's where it balanced at the pandemic low that's a precarious spot to bounce people don't know about the fundamentals or the growth going forward. they're trading off of technicals they are looking for bottom feeders right now. >> you said fundamentals and salesforce may be doing its part in layoffs. but also in executive departures the people of wall street, some may argue those are the organizic growth guys. where does salesforce go from here where is the growth coming from? >> if you look in the environment, where calculates changes. you're not supposed to buy growth stocks, per se.

we're looking at the macro versus the micro, on the innards of the hood of salesforce. investors are willing to say, are rates rising as fast as they were are we coming to tend of the fed hikes? if we are, salesforce is viable that it 's gotten so bad that people are looking for beta out of the chute >> let's turn to intrel, that's trading down this morning. after two years of delays, the next gen chips have fewer maximum than amd features. it's lost $130 billion of market value since returning as ceo i wonder if you have to feel

like a growth stock, if the turnaround succeeds, or fails could be cut in half how do you decide to buy a stock like this and when >> where you left off is what all traders are looking at salesforce, bounced at the pandemic low this becomes a value play. it's been seen as value over years. it's had a bunch of missteps if you look at data sense. they look at data centers dropping 27% amd rose by 25%.

they're not seen as value, they're not seen as growth i see traders taking a stab where you left off if this stock works, it would double if it doesn't, we fade everyone expects it to fade anyway the team is not trusted by customers or investors i see people taking stabs in the dark at this one this is possibly the one you want to take a stab at >> at tend of the year, they are supposed to deliver the emerald rapids that's supposed to drop into the same slot that sapphire is going into now if they can deliver that on time, does that deliver the credibility and the confidence that this team is turning this around

>> absolutely. you have a couple of small hurdles. the more you hear about the collaborations with different corporations and giving them a tailwind and the more they meet the projected guidance is going to make up for all the missteps they had in the last year or two. >> let's get to disney bob iger trying to right the ship i can't decide if this is media momentum or people following iger or some kind of earnings reset. what do you think? >> this is interesting to me i look at stocks and where they are in relationship to the pandemic have they bounced where they should have bounced or faded disney bounced around the

pandemic, as it should was there anything worse than the pandemic for disney? the answer is o. how can a recession, a possible recession, no matter how deep you get, be worse than the pandemic this stock bounced from there. things will never be as bad as the pandemic low for disney. entertainment is a 28 billion in earnings scheme. iger is trusted by everyone. everyone who was a headwind for disney, is a neutral towards iger who is better at mna as bob

iger a list of them too long to go in there. i'm long netflix maybe this is the time he takes a step at that i see disney exploding in 2023 >> i know you are watching 100 as a key sentiment level steve, great stuff i appreciate you kicking off the hour we'll see you tonight on "fast." turning to apple and barclay's cutting estimates on the stock to $133 per share also lowering the services segment. the amount paid to developers coming out flat year over year is it that the app store has gotten so big that the economy is slowing down and the app

store is slowing down? is it a big deal to cut on iphone, apple watch, on mac? >> thanks for having me. a lot going on with apple. we can get into the hardware stuff separately on the app store, it's two-fold. part of it is getting large numbers there. part of it ismacro, as well i should throw a third in there. some of them are tied to hardware you go in a store, you're more likely to buy apple care when we see rollover in the hardware, that will havecarry-or to the services, as well this is the piece of business that's higher margin, that's more recuring. that's one of the things that's led to the multiple over the last five or six years, moving a

lot higher it's the high value segment at risk here. >> let me take the other side of this units may be coming down what appletends to do is amp u vertical integration roll the m chip through more macs, even more higher margin macs on the pro end. do similar vertical integration. they are talking about rolling out their own chips for wireless doesn't that improve margins at a time when other competitors are seeing margins compressed? and might that, as they continue to buy back stock, add to eps? >> yes there's a lot of moving parts with apple and margins they're a big procurer of parts. there's been a lot of inflation.

apple had to offset. that's part of the problem we're seeing with the hardware products as you expect one of the speakers was talking about macro impacts. the economy is getting orse. and the products are coming off more expensive we are coming off of a strong period and apple was one of the last covid beneficiaries. to revert back towards normal. this started with the plant in china, where they had the manufacturing issues we're seeing that watch up realistically, it's an ecosystem that's strong. it's differentiated on software, if the play comes from apple themselves i think it's more important they

get back to a positive revenue dynamic. >> tim, thank you. still to come, the most bearish sentiment for ad buyers in the last decade who is best positioned to weather that storm, as "tech check" is just getting started if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee.

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it's the most bearish sentiment for ad buyers in the last decade. that's a top takeaway, predicting tiktok, amazon and netflix have the most share. let's look with john blackledge. let's look into the outlook. two-thirds of ad buyers are factoring in a recession they expect ads to increase year over year. is that too optimistic >> it could be we were surprised with that number, too. two-thirds recession into the budgets. they're taking a wait and see approach we think will drive more

volatility for the ad platforms this year. we what saw in the meants was, because they are taking a wait and see approach, they can ratchet up or ratchet down and it could be worse than what they told us >> in this scenario, if many of them think we are seding into a recession. you think they will spend on amazon, netflix and tiktok amazon is intent-driven. what do you like about tiktok and netflix? is it better targeting >> yeah. >> for tiktok, the platform was the winner of the survey in terms of expected share gain. in terms of advertiser adoption. we found it was the number one platform, if an advertiser wanted to start a new brand

campaign, for the 13 to 34 demo. it's a big brand platform. and a lot of rising options on the advertising side netflix, about one-third say they expect to advertise on it in 2023. started in november of last year and they expect netflix to get premium cpms with youtube and other ad networks. we'll get the update when they report the early earnings. >> tiktok may be the most appealing to buyers. but washington is keeping a close eye on the company on the app. what happens if it's banned in the u.s. >> we explored that in the report they were favored by a large margin in terms of if you want to place an ad on a short form

video platform if it were banned this year in the u.s., meta reels and youtube shorts would benefit >> what does that tell you investors are starting to look at meta like a value stock a lot of that is on reels. if ad buyers aren't there, does that change the thesis for eta >> we found that investors are looking at the multiple and potential for reels. the ad buyers expect facebook and instagram to lose share in digital video in the next couple years. that flies in the face of it it's a little wait and see maybe the investor enthusiasm isn't too much at this point based on what we learned from our survey this year

interesting counterpart of a little bit of consensus. john, thank you for being with us john blackledge from cowen coming up on "tech check," the next uber, airbnb, before they go click. cnbc's annual 50 list is taking nominations. we told you about the street's turn on warner brothers discovery. add guggenheim to the list a price target of $16.50 stocks are up 30% in just seven trading days this year couldn. now i have this. this is inspire. it's simple... it's just a button. sometimes i press his button. inspire is a sleep apnea treatment that works inside my body with the click of this remote. no mask, no hose, just sleep. we go night-night now.

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welcome back it's the 11th year of cnbc's disrupter 50 list, with alumni, uber, airbnb, slack and more

we're opening the call for no, ma'am nominations. we turn to julia boyorstin for that >> the companies that are challenging the status quo and have the potential to be the next public giants with an economic downturn, they face headwinds against capital venture. the third quarter of 2022 declined from the year earlier kw quarters that puts pressure on start-ups that haven't recently raised funding. investors should pay attention to the companies that emerge from this downturn sometimes companies born in the leanest of time have been the game-changing tech behemoth. the 2008-2009 recession,

produced tech unicorns that are collectively worth $150 billion according to start-up genome, including 24 disrupter 50 companies over the past decade, such as airbnb, block, pinterest, slack and whatsapp. not all companies started in downturns succeed, financial constraints can form new kind of scrappy innovation cnbc is accepting nominations for the 11th annual disrupter 50 list to learn more, scan the q.r. code on your screen or go to cnbc.com/disrupters. >> i wonder in what silos do you think will be the most interest? >> even though we've seen a downturn in start-ups over the past year or so, there's some sectors that are continuing to

raise money. there's three key areas i would point to health tech and energy, and an area looking for efficiencies. and cyber security companies won't be pulling back on protecting themselves on cyber tech we've seen starters on the disrupter 50 list and we expect to see more of them. julia, thanks. time for a news update >> thank you, jon. here's what's happening at this hour across the u.s., airlines are working to get their planes in the air following this morning's faa computer outage. flight aware says 65,000 flight have been delayed. government officials say the cause of the computer problem remains unclear. so far, there's no evidence of a

cyber attack mortgage refinancing is continuing to fall mortgage apps to purchase homes fell another present, as inventories for homes for sale remain tight bed, bath & beyond is up another 50% today. banking worries easing as the company announces cost-cutting measures shares are still down 75% over the last year. >> signs of life in those stocks thank you very much. still to come, companies like apple and amazon are making big bets in the health care sector not all of them have played out. will this be a continued area of investment

welcome back to tech check markets trying to take the positive view. s&p 500 about 50 points away from the 200 day, we haven't been above tesla, pretty nice bump after goldman sachs names the stock a top pick amazon, up 4%. after the company's prime activity looking strong. good checks on the cloud business and we're watching taiwan semi, up about 9% for the ear. we will get earnings from the

company tomorrow that's going to be a key number, given everything we know about semis and the inventory cycle. tossing back to the beginning of the show and talking to dom about the names that were so bad in '22 he was talking about the dow you mentioned tesla. another one in the mix ahead of earnings season, so much optimism, is that a good thing? >> the setup for cpi looked better a couple of days ago. given this enthusiasm is coming up the motion in some of the e.v. names. some of the squeezes bed bath up 50%. things like that amc, up 19 earlier this morning. those are things to watch out for, as that print is less than 24 hours away. >> we're starting out the year, risk-on. if you're looking for a way to

overcome the strong dollar, health care stocks up in 2022. the next guest says that more mna could be on the way. joining us now, dina shacker, general partner of lex capital it 's great to have you here in person >> thanks for having me. >> you were at the health care conference it's an important way to kick off the year for the health care sector as a whole. what are the takeaways >> the city is bustling. there's so much energy you have bio tech, start-ups, investors. there's a lot of energy. people are in good spirits, despite being hailed on. >> and some of the biggest deals, mostly overseas does that tell you what to expect in the u.s. in terms of activity in the

u.s. >> it's only day three we're hearing a lot of mna on the biopharma front. significant investments coming from the health tech field and interesting announcements, as well. a number of ceos talking about their focus of technology. tech is a player increasingly significant player in health technology we've seen moves but what do you make of it so far? big acquisitions what do you think the big deck is going to be this year >> the acquisitions were unprecedented. there's interesting opportunities that will emerge big tech is doubling down. we're seeing that with amazon. and we're seeing with some of the big announcements coming out of big tech companies. health tech is here to stay.

i think it will replace health care more health companies have put forth technology >> i wonder if there's a health check shakeout coming. it can be expensiexpensive. carbon health, this week, announced $100 million raise from cvs as part of the "d" they are doing. not everybody will get that kind of money what happens to those that don't? do they sell out to larger companies at prices they hope for? >> it's great to be back with you, jon we're proud of carbon. it's like cvs doubling down. there was a lot of money put

into early stages of health tech that continued through 2022. a number of deals and dollars deployed than 2022 it does not look like it will be quite as much activity >> what do you think for al alphabet google does apple has the apple watch. they're investing in amazon is doing acquisitions, including one medical. should we see something big out of google? >> i think google has an interesting history. building versus buying in health and it's the original front door for all of health care every tech company needs google. they are aware of that they're doing fascinating work and i expect other partnerships from them and other companies. >> i wonder how much capital they have available.

they are getting activist letters to scale back on moon shot projects. when we talk about health tech and innovation, some argue that we need less exciting things, like solving for complex can i do you think the projects we're talking about, it's good but can make fragmentation worse >> when it comes to health tech, we have a broken system. some of the most innovations are not rocket science it's getting data to work. getting patient where they need it it doesn't need to be the crazy investment, but meeting patients where they are >> is that what they are doing they are looking to find other revenue streams. maybe it 's solving that complexity you look at the amazon one medic call how do you think they are solving for the problem?

>> each company has a different take on it apple and the apple watch, they are doubling down in clinical trials and delivering outcomes unclear what will come from google they are spending time and providing interesting research >> it was great to have you here in person. still to come, why gig economy stocks suffered on this year's just 100 list including a 400-spot drop for one of the names next to me subscribe to our podcast you can listen to the show where you download podcasts.

welcome back just capital and cnbc, releasing the just 100 list, ranking companies by key issues the american public says matters the most, such as wages and job creation some gig economy names plummeting in the ranks under a new review process brandon gomez, who has been covering the report, joins me now on set why did they drop so far >> i was covering the just 100 launch yesterday let's break out some names we're talking gig economy names. uber, lyft, as well. these companies, being reclassified this year, from underreview, which is where they were last year to now, dropping in the rankings because of how they classify

workers. just capital reached out and said, last year, we didn't have the data to understand whatyou workforce population they reached out and asked what the breakdown was. then asked them, okay, for the workers, of the workplace benefits you offer, which ones apply to gig workers and which apply to full-time staff they discounted the score for the companies that didn't provide the benefits across the board for all employees. >> the same benefits to corporate staff and the delivery drivers. >> exactly some would argue, that the delivery driver is looking for flexibility, not necessarily a 401(k) right? is it fair to judge a company with a whole bunch of corporate workers, like intel, as the same measuring stick, as a company that has grad students wanting to make an extra buck. >> it's a fair question.

what do gig economy workers want they're not all created the same they want different things and maybe safety protections and 401(k) business. they want access to the 401(k) benefits that's what just capital is doing. they are starting the conversation, as opposed to calling them under review. they are inviting gig economy workers to the table to have the conversation >> i worry about education as a benefit. some of these jobs are going to get taken away by computers. are companies providing workers with a stepping done for economic mobility? maybe that should be one of the things they are measuring. >> as we work with just capital, that's one of the things we can ask. right now, looking at 401(k)s

and broader packages are they offering education benefits how granular can we make this conversation, really >> it's important to look at it in combination with just capital. i love the topic gig economy and labor, key risk factor for investors after the break, the three phases of a tech recovery microsoft and amd to riskier bets like draft kings. how one investor is positioned "tech check" returns in just two minutes. hi ladies! alex from u.s. bank! can she help? how about a comprehensive point of sale system... that can track inventory, manage schedules- and customize orders? that's what u.s. bank business essentials is for. (oven explosion) what about a new oven, can u.s. bank help us there? we can serve loans in as fast as 12 minutes. that would be a big help! huge! jumbo! ginormous! woo! -woo! finding ways to make your business boom. that's what u.s. bank is for. we'll get there together.

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just look around. in overall satisfaction. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting.

welcome back the nasdaq moving higher on pace for its first four-day win streak since september in advance of cpi tomorrow our next guest sees this as a beginning of a recovery for parts of technology. joining me here, acme capital founder. >> thank you for having me appreciate it. >> how do you think the recovery in tech asserts itself this year >> i'm a big fan of history doesn't repeat itself. but it does rime if you look at what's happening today, what's happening in the markets, it's similar to what happened after the '09 recovery and the 2000 dotcom recovery there's going to be three mazes of how things happen the house hold names those are going to be the first to recover those are good, safe names

the products are in demand and the markets are big. and the valuations are very att attractive those are the first to recover you see investment banks talking about that a few strugglers it's intel or apple or meta, there's some segments that are going to struggle. but the onesstruggle, but the ones i believe are going to do the best are the infrastructure players usually the first phase of recovery people buy infrastructure i need infrastructure to support my business, i need to upgrade my existing infrastructure, and that's where i think the first money is going to go the economy, the attention based economies i think are going to struggle so these are companies using advertising to monetize their users, right so metas and so on i think those are going to struggle both because of ad spending and increased regulatory pressures yeah yeah, i guess that makes sense arguably that we coming out of

covid have less to give. >> i think there's some segments of enterprise software that's going to go gang busters i think morgan stanley recently did a survey and saw that infrastructure spending is going to increase while front of the office spending is going to decrease that's why usee salesforce suffering a little bit while other companies like microsoft doing well >> you've seen innovation peak at least in consumer apps. what do you mean by that are we at a dead end with bells and whistles >> i think you touch on it i think consumers tapped out 100% of our attention is on tiktok or snap chat or facebook or instagram there's very little for us to do outside -- we don't have anymore time, right, and so for anyone to come in and innovate on the consumer side they have to basically replace an inexisting

incumbent player, which really hard to do that's why you're seeing incumbent players face a ceiling. >> if microsoft, if that deal comes together it could become the trojan horse for the next epic they're talking similar to how amazon gave birth to web services >> we are seeing the tip of the iceberg. ai has been around for a long time, but the thing different this time we're try starting to trust ai answers so you're seeing it everywhere it's going to be like water. it's going to be as big as the internet was in terms of how things are more efficient. for the last 100 years we've ought moted blue collar workers. i think for the next 100 years we're going to auto mate white collar workers >> thanks for being here on set.

up next the third act of the streaming wars why one firm says consolidation a platform is the way forward, disney, netflix, amazon, all big winners this year. stay with us

before we go, get a gut check. it is act three of the streaming wars according to a new note saying the industry's reached maturity and the only path forward consolidation of platforms. as streamers raise their prices and see slower growth, so with the third act upon us, who is the top name in that space, he says netflix upping their price target toot 240 maintaining a market reform rating we like to listen to what moffitt thinks, julia. >> yeah, moffitt is one of the of the leading analysts. what's interesting is he said the obvious solution to this new tougher phase three of the streaming wars is consolidation. at the same time he says he doesn't see consolidation on the

horizon this year. the company is under pressure. on one hand you're seeing cord cutting of the traditional paid tv ecosystem and on the other hand so much competition in the streaming space these companies are under pressure to continue to invest in content but that's what's hurting their margins, so there's going to be a lot more decision making about where they should invest and also pricing i think it's worth noting he said the increase in pricing among disney plus did impact signups at least based on their estimates. so it's going to be fascinating to see some of these streaming numbers and specifically commentator for me, what i'm most interested in commentary about ad supported streaming and we'll start to see those results when netflix reports next week >> yeah, we spoke to another analyst in the show who picked amazon to benefit most from ad dollars in the upcoming year what does it mean for content going forward.

it can only go up, and it still feels like that for this year, but what would it take to see consolidation in the space and a lower spend on content >> well, look, i think we've seen various supports saying the amount of money being spent on content will increase but at a much smaller pace than what we've seen in recent years so you can still expect to see plenty of new series and tv shows. there's going to be a lot more strategic decisions about maybe you put things in theaters a bit longer the fact netflix's glass onion performed so well in theaters for such a small period of time, maybe they were leaving money on the table. maybe they should have put that film in more theaters. but in terms of consolidation, a lot of that comes down to regulatory issues. >> meanwhile crypto has been a large part of spending over the last few years and now crypto exchange benance

says they're planning a hiring exchange in 2023 the ceo says the company -- needs to get the company well organized ahead of the next crypto bull run. the company increased head count in 2022 from 3,000 people to almost 8,000 people. john, i wish i could see your face as we're reading this there's a few red flags in this. he says the exchange is not super efficient. >> there's no better way to get efficient than to hire more people i mean it's a great way to project strength to say you're going to hire more people. with all the questions about the economy in 2023 let's see if they actually do it. >> carl, too, it also raises that continual question is where's the money coming from, and can you trust a crypto company that doesn't have a full audit? >> yeah, and this b of a downgraded coin base cites coin

volume in december which was the first month after the ftx blow up more than half of the monthly trend for the year and that's why they go to underperform, cuts their target to 35. but that would definitely be zigging while others are zagging. on important day let's get to the judge and the half carl, thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to the half time report. i'm scott wapner front and center this hour what tomorrow's cpi report must read for stocks to continue their early year rally we've got the latest must see predictions now from jp morgan's trading desk, means more stock and sector picks for you joining me from the hour today, let's take you to the wall we're just past 12:00 noon eastern. nasdaq is the outperformer again. that's nearly