some of the more punished stocks that will be interesting, and if they're going respond to fundamentals or we're talking about flows and risk appetites and animal spirits as we're making our way through the first month. >> probably the latter we'll see. have a good weekend. we'll see you on the other soid of that. "fast money" starts now. >> with the heart of earning season, can trallyon plus, stuck in reverse legacy auto makers stafter an announcement from tesla. and we're just about ready to rap up the reveal of our 2023 traders' acronyms. one is looking at zen while the other is lusting after the

limelight. how they're trading the new year coming up. i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money. stocks erasing early losses. wells growing 3% j.p. morgan, bank of america, citi also ending day in the green coming even as the bank execs suggest it might not last. j.p. morgan stating its central case, and behind man expecting a slowdown to start in the mid to early part of this year. what should we take away from what we we heard today everybody is saying they're wanting down the hatches >> they are. we have been looking forward bank earnings for a while, and they came in line or beat revenue, net income. and really you're going to be laser focused on this nii

number and the real question is, have these numbers started to peak? bank of america is top of the class in terms of loan book, but they shift from loan loss releases to provisionings. and you've seen that across the board. at the very least, tie in the fact that the j.p. morgan saying the base case is a mild recession. at the very least you've got to be looking at consumer discretionary, and if the banks are making provisions for consumer the increase in defaults, i'd be looking the same way. >> almost feel like i'm out of breath from a rally in the banks. >> running from the subway two minutes ago. >> that, too but that's what the bafrpgs have been doing, rallying the s&p, outperformed the s&p by 20%. agree with bonawyn the comments from jamie diamond

are encouraging. it's all about credit. it's all about the interpretation of what that recession is going to look like. so far, so good. i think banks can go higher. >> what do we glean from the rest of earning season, jeff mills? if they're saying things are okay now, it's possible q 4 was decent, q 1 guidance can be decent if that mild recession is still yet to come. >> yeah, it certainly is possible, but i think we need to look ahead to what guidance looks like, and i think the fourth quarter results might be okay, but let's look ahead the one thing i thought was interesting that j.p. morgan said was in the net interest income assumption, that included two rate hikes this year, but two rate cuts later in turn with what the bond market is saying i keep asking myself, in what scenario do those rate cuts occur? it's some significant slowdown, to your point, that ultimately has an impact on earnings. i keep going back to the simple

equation of, what should the multiple be and what are earnings likely to be? even if we're generous in earnings and say we come around $210 that's flattish to a little bit of growth this year and put a 1 times multiple on that, 17 times when rate worse zero, so that's somewhat generous as well, and that doesn't give us a lot of upside in fact, it would point to downside so i think that's still to come, and again, the message from banks is like you said, okay now but potentially deteriorating going forward. >> i think that was interesting what jeff was saying, steve, in terms of the rate cuts, being in line with what the market is pricing in it's almost like be careful what you wish for you want rates to come down, right? that's what the markets want, in theory, but the reason for them cutting -- for the fed cutting rates has got to be something pretty bad. >> yeah, i don't know if it's got to be something pretty bad i think the fact that everyone wants to fed to actually stop right now -- because the fed is

usually late to act and late to stop acting. so maybe -- i'll look at it as the glass is half full where maybe what they're saying or maybe what the economists are saying under j.p. morgan's umbrella is that the fed will overreach. if they overreach they have to step that back if i were to tell you the s&p would be above all of its moving averages, that will be a home run. and the s&p is above all its moving averages today. it has not been above the 200 day moving average for any type of consistent circumstance melissa, for the better part of 2022. >> by the way -- sorry, steve, go ahead. >> now when you look at the technicals of the market they're setting up what? when you look at the financials, they ran up into this print, and j.p. morgan made a new high. but i think the takeaway for me today was the consumer sentiment

number once that came out, it really beat people's expectations it made every feel well about the market, and the market and banks as a whole moved higher in that point on, 10:00 a.m. on. >> i was going to say, bonawyn, did we mess the dressdown memo >> sweater weather. >> apparently what's what we're doing. i agree with jeff. 17 1/2 is more then the market's, s&p trading from 19. our friend came on the show and said when you have everybody so hunkered down, he says it's an 1146 year peak i'll says the a peak from a crazy 11 1/2 year rally. this is a market where there is stuff to do on the long side the's a market where i think the one thing that troubles me the most as a trader right here and now the vix. the meanreversion dynamic of

the vix, 18 handle is lower than we have been since prepandemic. >> we're on the same page. we talkabout consumer sentiment -- trading sentiment and whether or not it gets oversold and whether or not we start to get to a place after malaise where we're not risking. people have been conservative coming into the market, and there's good reason to be. but at this point, i think you've got to look at the vix and start to say, feels like people are starting to get very comfortable with this rally, which kind of undermines what has led to the rally in the first place, which is everyone was positioned defensively it was a consensus that this first quarter or first half was going to be pretty challenging and we were going the rally into the back half. but the fact that we're rallying and making new lows -- new seasonal lows in the vix is concerning. >> maybe they're not long enough maybe it is actually a bullish scenario setting up because

they're not long enough to actually hedge against what they should have on their books i think you touched on that bonawyn, but i'm looking at it as people don't have enough risk to hedge yet, and that's why we've seen the disconnect from the vix to the overall market. >> i think they're hedged. i think they're hunkered down. this could be a sign that the vix could go lower if people are suddenly capitulating on the view that he mild recession from jamie diamond is something we can endorse, with job records at ultimate lows. a mile recession may be good as i say, cash processioning, there's records amount of cash we've done this so many times, the wall of worry in terms of what the market can do, but -- >> is this just complacency playing out?

we're basically -- check all the boxes when it comes to the consensus view for the first half of the year, and the banks confirm it with call a mild recession. we're understood scoring this notion that everybody thinks that the recession is going to be mild, that the worst part of the year is going to be in the first half of the year or is this lady long is this a lazy long market at this point >> i keep going back and forth on this, but i look at two relationship we're talking about. one is the vix, something i think is really interesting, the lowest levels we've seen since late 2019. gold outperformed. you have this weird dichotomy between those two areas of the market that's enough to give me some pause i keep coming back to this idea that the market and fed keep getting further apart relative to what they expect for the second half of the year. our guess is that the first half

of the year might actually be okay, because the labor market is reasonably strong as you push into the second half of the year, you start to see those cracks in the labor market, in earnings. that's when you might have a problem, because the fed doesn't pivot. the market has to react to that. multiples adjust, and that's when we end up having more difficulty. >> we want to get to this other story. tesla slashing prices dramatically, the company taking down prices by as much as 20% on some models. tesla stock finished the day down, though well off the lows of the day the big move we've seen in others in the ev space, ri virksian the idea the market leader is cutting prices, the rest will follow for those like ford and gm, they're going to have to match to the detriment of margins,

tim. >> for sure. i'm shocked tesla didn't sell off more the price cuts hurt their profitability more what we have been hearing about the -- at least about detroit is they have been able to raise prices through this, and net prices are even a bit higher even as used car prices fall we know what the used car market is telling us about where prices are going. the "fast money" interpretation of today is ford rally 25% over ten sessions, gm rallied, where as tesla has been a blood bath if anybody priced it in, gm priced 60. it's a $37 stock now testimonies at the case of where everybody's priced and concern about demand. >> grasso? >> if there's going to be a price war, melissa, then the one company that wins is tesla they have -- to protect against

any price war. they have efficiencies in manufacturing, they're building more plants. there's rumors of an ongoing conversation about a plant in --. this is going to be something where the conversation will go frt ev space to battery space. so if that's the way it's going to be, tesla's a winner in this market. >> you're saying, why? because these price cuts are really putting into, you know, a stone's throw -- the pricing on a ford competing vehicle it's making a lot of vehicles eligible for the federal tax credit so why the doubt over steve's claim? >> i feel as if tesla's had a lot of profitability that's come from ev credits and buying these credits and profitability that i think is challenging i think they have trouble making the three at a margin that works. i look at an f-150

it's nice you threw them in the ev camp because they're not. nobody's pricing ford as if it's an ev company. that's where detroit needs to catch up. >> not to go two boxes with you, tim, tax credits haven't been a full story for tesla in quite some time, and now could we come to price war, no one else can protect their price the way tesla can, and now you have the tick kicker of being able to have a tax cut from the federal government i think it makes at attractive again to buy a tesla. >> got to go here. coming up, a few more acronyms to go. one is a show stopper. plus, it's friday, so you know we've got a chart of the week for you one stock inching higher caught our trader's attention wh what is t? stick around to find out

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♪ ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco. just look around. because if it's connected, this digital ageotected. we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury.

everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting. just look around. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting. welcome back to "fast money. we're got more acronym fun for you tonight. bonawyn, sit calm for a minute that's a hint. we're going to let the renowned

general mills go first on this one. jeff, take it away. >> mine is fame. there's nothing really to the acronym other than the first two i came up with were dead and omen, and they were far too depressing, so i went with fame instead. i thought about kruking a portfolio. five is the first one. it's that discount retailer theme. higher shoppers coming down. i think we're just seeing the beginning of labor market challenges the chart looks good to me then we have amazon and meta those are two stocks with did a would you rather at the end of the year i chose amazon i like both. amazon, going to get expansion held $80, which was a key level. meta's been killed, but it's a great business profitability, free cash flow, all the characteristics i have been looking for long-term they figure out the apple issues and i think a lot of challenges are priced in

there. lastly, eog resources. i think oil prices end up being supporti thisyear. the stock is down 15% from all-time high. showing support. it's that quality theme. quality company. has low cost structure, so insulating you a little bit and it has one of the best management teams who's been able the manage that cost structure so there it is i think those stocks have a good chance of outperforming this year. >> five below is an interesting one. you haven't talked about it. did you work backwards from your acronym, or did you say five below is definitely going to be a pick -- >> and be honest >> it could have gone tame, lame so many different ways >> lame. >> you know what i did i took a notebook and i wrote down different names of etfs and stocks, and that was one of them i have been talk about that discount retailer theme. dollar tree, dollar general. but five is one i like me personally, i'm there always time i take my kid there is

a lot of my friends do the same thing. so i think it's going to be a good one for a deteriorating labor market in a lowing economy. >> they got a good candy selection. >> we have to think about maria kara "fame. >> bonawyn, keep calm and carry on >> jeff is being modest. he's the general mine is c.a.l.m. i'm channelling my inner zen i want a book of names that's going keep me from pulling my hair out you look at chevron. just over 3% div yield the next is agg. why continue the move further and out on the risk curve when risk free rates are paying you

4.7, investment grade is paying north of 5%. you can hunker down and feel confident your money is going to be working there you can get yield and again you're not going to have capital erosion. the next name is lmt i know lock heed had the downgrade. but it's still exposure what i want much more than riskier growth. the last one is mcdonald's this is a bellwether consumer weakness, that's something that whether you're a high earner or modest earner, you can trade down to that like target or walmart. i think you're able to keep calm and prevent from running for the exits with these names here. >> interesting all of the acronyms we have had -- we've asked all of our traders. all of them have an energy or 99% of them have an energy aspect to them. >> not d.a.n.

>> not d.a.n slq. >> i think energy continues to go higher. especially it does in the need commodity price to go higher, which it may or may not do, but i think the energy companies look interesting for sure. >> up next, is this stock ready to spread its wings and blossom into a beautiful rally in maybe so stick around for our chart of the week that's next. you're watching "fast money. back right after this. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

welcome back to "fast money. time to reveal our chart of the week it is cater pillar the stock trading at all-time highs dating all the way back to 1929

but can shares keep inching higher jeff, you're looking at this one. >> two really quick charts one is just of the price channel it's been in for the last 25 years. it's approaching the top of the channel, somewhere around 280. i'd look at that will level for the stock. maybe there's upside, but more limited. the stock i think is interesting is the chart versus s&p. cat being a psych. icle business, they went to move together you've seem this big divergence of late. i think that gap closes with cat underperforming between now and the end of this year. >> steve, your take? >> yeah, there was that $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill over the next three years,

$1.2 trillion is going to be spent on companies like cat. so i think cat is showing us what they're looking forward to once those checks start getting cut. i don't think it underperforms i think it continues to go higher, basically. all will improve the ones that have not popped -- as well. >> cat i own and continue to like i think it's had quite a run when i look at it versus a deere, it's a turn, a turn and a half expensive there might be short-term relative value on the deere side. >> we are seeing commodities come back. you look across the ag space, bubbles, iron orear it will support caterpillar. the valuation is not cheap, but i wouldn't be chasing it i think you could be buying weakness. >> cat or deere? >> probably cat, and again, i

just think they have a more diversified business in this environment. >> all right, it's time for the final trade. it's already friday. it's a short show. time to go around the horn steve with the half zip. go ahead, what's your final trade? >> stem, the s in my just trade. >> jeff mills. >> >> i'd be a seller of xrt, the retail etf generally look at the construction of that there's an elevated multiple a lot of bigger weights have seen huge moves, over 100% in some cases i don't think that's sustainable. >> bonawyn >> agg. >> tim seymour. >> this was an exciting friday for me. >> because you almost didn't make it. >> i mean, the show must go on. >> lyft almost seems look they didn't make it out of the pandemic, and that's my argument for this is not an economically sensitive stock. it's a stock that's going to be a function of their drivers and

efficiencies i think they goat 24 they have been long a couple months and stay long after a big one. >> this is one from your l.a.g. >> this was acronym week i hope you appreciate it, because we love doing this. >> love this game! >> that does it for us on "fast money. have a great weekend don't go anywhere. "options action" up next

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right now on "options action," we're all about those rates. yields up today but pulling back over the last week, and we've got a trade that will help you maneuver future moves. time to shine? gold and silver on the move, we're polishing off a precious metals play you won't want to miss and we're gear up for a short but busies week. two names on the trade in carter's eyes. i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, carter worth, mike khouw, and