tv Street Signs CNBC January 16, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EST
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ea. tami won't be surprised if the restless seattle monk detaches from america and vanishes into the same mountain mist from which he came. -- captions by vitac -- good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm arabile gumede. these are your headlines the ten-year breaks through for the second day and the yen see-saws under pressure to move away from the policy stance. and european equities trading higher as global leaders and policymakers descend on davos and wholesale prices ease
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back from november levels. and credit suisse prepares to cut 10% of the bankers as it works on the next wave of restructuring. and the banks mixed lows with the sharp increase in provisioning and warning of a downturn. >> it is for a mild recession in early 2023 and the research team have been consistent good morning welcome to "street signs." european equities have been open for an hour now and we are still in positive territory. we have come off the highs of the day. we opened .30% now above the flat line. this after a strong week last
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week for equities on both sides of the atlantic. stoxx 600 gained 1.8%. wall street with more gains. nasdaq rallying 4.8% dow about 2% the s&p about 2.7% the positive momentum carrying over from last week. overnight, we saw decent gains in china with the shenzhen trading in positive territory. a big week for corporate earnings bank of japan with the policy meeting kicking off tomorrow and davos in switzerland world leaders gathering to talk about geopolitics and climate change and corporate it will be a big week. let's look at the breakdown. we have some red on the board. we initially opened in the green. now cac and ftse mib in negative territory. ftse 100 is holding on to the gains up 10 points similar for dax and the smi
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trading .03% higher. you have travel and beverage out performing the defensive healthcare focus basket of stocks financial services and food round out the top performers arabile. japan's 10-year yield broke through the ceiling for a second day rising 0.45% on friday with the investors eyeing a move from the central bank this week the bank of japan said it would buy more government bonds today as yields rose policymakers meet tomorrow doubling the cap on the 10-year yield last month which is speculation they will lift an begin
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-- again. the bank of japan stuck to the decades long attempt to stoke price rises as inflation comes in hot the december cpi is expected to hit 4% on friday double the bank target japanese wholesale prices putting pressure on the policy stance it jumped 0 continue to 2% which was sharply higher than the previous month for the year, wholesale jumped to the highest on record and the japanese currency could see big jumps this year according to viraj patel >> coming through from the bank of japan and the cyclical is coming through where the rest of the world is lslowing down this year could be the year.
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>> let's head to j.p. who joining us for this story. year of the yen is what we get from our analyst, j.p. no shortage of surprises is what we usually get from the central bank governor. pretty much this time around too? >> yes, arabile. you have to remember that he has been known to stick to his guns and move in a conservative fashion. it is possible they don't do anything on wednesday when the bank of japan holds the meeting for this week or for the month of january it won't just have a lot of implications for yeeields which have been trading with the negative policy or control which lapsed, but also which way the yen will go. this could be the year of the yen, but in the short-term, we
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might see a movement there are two scenarios here if the u.s. dollar continues to weaken and japanese yields rise, this could lead to support for the yen, but see a test of 125 against the greenback after the meeting. however, if the converse happens and we see the governor choose not to do anything and could return to 130 handle you have a tighter trading change in asia we have to put this in context with yields. yes, you can say that yields did breach the policy ceiling around the 10-year yield for the second straight day it was trading as high as 51.4 today. the buyback from the bank of japan brought to closer to 50.5 at the close in tokyo. you are seeing a fight back against the narrative that yields will go up. this is all only for monday.
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it goes to show that despite all of the strong bets from the market that are defying that the yield curve control will be relaxed or abandoned, there is thestrong possibility we have to take into account the bank of japan and monetary policymakers decide to do nothing which could reverse the strength of the japanese yen this will have a knock-off effect on fixed income and yen and equities you have to remember that a strongeryen is generally not favored. they tend to not look favorably on the stronger yen. that is one reason the nikkei was the standout we saw solid gains in shanghai and shenzhen these are gains for more in indexes. nikkei closed lower today and automakers like honda and
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panasonic are some of the laggards today some banks seemed shaky despite the higher yields. one standout is the pharmaceutical giant which submitted applications for marketing for the alzheimer's drug for the domestic market after approval from regulators one of the few gainers of the nikkei 225 it determines how equities move and what will happen to the yen. to determine what happens to the yen, you have to see what the bank of jefof japan will do in couple of days it makes for an interesting conclusion of the very much awaited policy meeting from the bank of japan. arabile. >> j.p., i'll pick it up thank you for breaking it down starting tomorrow
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now let's shift to gears on germany. germany defense minister has asked scholz for permission to resign that is according to ntb free-to-air tv channel this comes after the media outlets had reported that she was considering resignation this after posting a new year's eve message with the war in ukraine with fireworks in the background it comes in a precarious time for germany from the defense point of view. facing a decision whether to supply battle tanks to ukraine which marks a significant change from the policy in the past. a lot of uncertainty within the german government with the defense strategy this complicating things further. keen to see if annette has a view for us and the take on wholesale prices we got german data prices rising at a slower pace in december posting up year on
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year this was lower than the number in november. annette joins us now maybe we are past the peak i love to hear your breakdown of the numbers and if you have any comment around the news of the defense minister may have handed in her regulasignation or asked resign >> reporter: i think those developments are interesting starting off with the price development. the slower reading month on month since december 2008 and year on year is the slowest price increase in a year to give you a breakdown. they have a connection with the producers and earned consumer. it adds more clarity that also
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the end consumer will feel less of the pain which we have seen in recent months with the price development. clearly if you look at the components, it is driven year on year by mineral oil products which is one reason the high diesel price diesel is important for the german economy it is the workhorse for the industry the diesel price had been up the last couple of weeks because of low production facilities and production capacity, i should say, and also the food prices on the rise the trend is to the down side and probably past peak inflation with all of the implicationsno for the ecb. it seems the price development is coming back a lot faster. it is the same sort of mechanism as we entered into the high
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pressure price development phase. the same could hold true now as well going out of the phase. shifting topics to the defense ministry actually high time she is resigning. she has been under pressure since posting that odd new year's eve video on her linkedin profile, but already in december, the defense ministry in the country is not very happy with the performance of the government to say the least. there was a lot of back and forth when it comes to also giving contrascts to the defense industry and now we have that. i'm not sure if it made it to the international level. there was a rather gathering of the meeting with the defense industry and the ministry where they had serious problems in
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deploying the trucks there, or tanks i should say, and now heading into the meeting on the 20th of january between the defense ministry here on the ground and it is high time to find a new position and person on the ground to enter the situation a lot better the key question is who will be her successor. there are a couple of names on the table. it should be someone from the ecb but not a lot of people have the expertise. it could be someone from the ftb. this remains to be seen. as you point out, this is a crucial time for the german defense ministry and a crucial time for the german government they are on the verge of sending tanks to ukraine the issue is do they have them and production capacity?
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so far, it is not the case another alternative is to order the tanks from other countries in europe and send them from germany into ukraine which would be a clear signal that germany is willing to go one step further. >> annette, glad we had you to break that down and implications to make clear to viewers, we have a statement from the german defense minister she announced her resting i go nat -- resignation. that is official news now. our next guest says we will see recession more so than previously expected, but growth will slow sharply. we have a global economist at the intelligence unit. kellen, thank you for the time the reopening of china, for example, does add a fair bit of, let's call it green, to the market picture or global growth
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picture. are we perhaps running ahead of other selves here? we see how difficult it can be and reopening the ride lhas been from covid-19? >> absolutely. there has been talk about china reboosting growth and particularly commodity prices. it will be a bumpy reopening we have seen that with the surge in cases in china and the questions around the quality of data that is coming out to the global economy and what the surge is really looking like and extrapolate how long that surge in cases would last and what it means for consumers. the big concern for economy watchers are what will happen with chinese consumers and when does personal consumption start to recover we did see a hit to incomes in china without the same household stimulus measures. we would get ahead of ourselves
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to assume consumption would come back online. early growth and consumers coming back earlier than expected. >> it does help. it is a move perhaps in the right direction if you want to call it that especially on the global economic perspective. do you think a rededecrease is expected across the year >> we don't want to be overly negative and look a gift horse in the mouth china coming back online is good for the pace of growth and stimulating that demand. i think one of the reasons we are still seeing modest pros effe - prospects for china is the slow demand as the other economies go through the slow period of growth in 2023 i think that is mainly because 2023 will would be the most
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coordinated slow year. at the moment, we are not expecting a global recession although some countries will record year on year recessions and others, including the u.s., will stagnate with growth in the very marginal positive numbers all told, coming out of the severe crisis, pandemic driven, and now inflation driven economic crisis, a stagnant growth is the outcome and softish landing for the global economy we had been looking out for. >> calin, we are preparing for davos. colleagues will kickoff coverage later today. in terms of the agenda, i have been thinking about the dynamic where there are a lot more western countries represented this year than the past. in the g7, olof scholz is scheduled to be there. so far for much of 2022, the u.s. and europe were aligned
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aligned in terms of the approach to russia and sanctions there. it feels as tensions are brewing with the u.s. and europe europe increasingly concerned about some u.s. policies that have been put into place and namely the subsidies to try to lure investment into the u.s there is concern those could be anti-competitive how do you see that relationship playing out in 2023? >> i think we are at a turning point. as you said, 2022 was a crisis year if anything, with we can pull a positive story that the u.s. and europe came back to the fundamentals we have seen a lot of strain in the relationship prior to that in the early day of the biden administration some of the strain on the reliance on the protection policies and tensions in the auto sector and trade in u.s. and europe all problems were apparent war in ukraine broke out in 2022
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and we came back to the fu funda fundamentals security partnership and pay collectively across the board. everyone moving in the same direction for a little while as we came out of the crux of the initial crisis, all of the problems are coming back to the sur surface. we would see a temporary pause and new commitment to the transatlantic relationship the reality of the relationships and trade and what happens with the u.s. investment like semiconductors and others like autos come back to the floor they were never really gone. temporarily off the top of the ag agenda >> super interesting let's pick up on something you mentioned with supply changes in the research as something to keep an eye on in to 23. t -- in 2023 the pandemic caused people to
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rethink the supply chains and the war in ukraine doing that more do you see a world in which companies look to re-shore and rethink supply chains? what does that look like from the investment perspective >> there are a few things we are looking at with by ifurcation o the semiconductor industry this is one of the things we think will be very much part of the agenda a reshuffling of supply chains a total re-shoring is not likely companies heading to the key consumer markets which is a global market and they want the difficulties of managing global supply chains and energy prices soaring. what it means for shifts and new
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investment in an uncertain landscape. all that to say i think what we have seen recently which is a reshuffling and diversification of supply chains a lot of companies present in asia and less reliant on chinese supply chains and moving closer to consumer markets and producing in various places and trying to bridge that gap and not get overly looked to one i think one of the terms that is spread around is friend shoring. moving with comfortable policies will work well we will see investment in north america and collaborative markets there. ing moving closer to consumer markets without re-shoring which is not a viable option >> calin, let me take you back to the inflation issues as well. you know, what is control of inflation look like to you by
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year end is it a figure orang what are y looking at with the major economies? >> it feels far away quite a big target for the year. i don't envy the fed or ecb for the job ahead. i think we have a couple of factors playing in there and i'll talk about the u.s. and europe they were facing different inflation drivers there that will play out differently over the year for the u.s., we expect inflation to average under 4% this year. that's compared to 8% in 2022. so it is halving the number which is enormously positive and heading in the right direction it is double the level the fed would like to see on average over the long term elevated levels of pricing still. one of the reasons we see that is still high levels of
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commodity and price tensions rising production costs and consumer goods costs across the board. for the u.s., it is a story of strong consumer demand that really powerful driving force that capped economic growth as positive in 2022 despite the predictions across the board including the softening at the end of the year consumers kept charging forward dipping into savings and borrowing more and doing all to keep theconsumption going. it will take time for the drive to slow down and wage gains to even off and that demand to slow the u.s. does face a relatively long road ahead. for that reason, the fed will keep interest rates at a peak level until the middle of 2024 once the fed pauses, we will be there for a long time. for europe, the peak will be higher in terms of inflation because they face greater pressure on the russian energy supplies and the pressure coming
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to commodities from the war in ukraine. we will see a higher peak and hopefully a sharper decline over 2023 as commodity prices stay high, but don't keep climbing from where they are now. so we will see toward the end of the year inflation coming become to look more normal. in global economy, major developed economies specifically, we don't get back to a normal level until 2024 >> calin, thank you very much for that a wealth of information coming through. global economist at the eiu joining us for that discussion coming up on the show, investment bankers are alert on a report credit suisse is preparing to wield the axe on europe
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a 50% increase compared to the year before. now the bank posted a half year net profit of 3 billion euro boosted by strong performance in the key markets. analysts expect bbva to double the net profit for the full year credit suisse reporting to cut 10% of the europe based investment bankers this year the swiss lender announced it will cut over 9,000 jobs globally in the next three years as part of the restructuring process. ubs chairman says the lender is not interested in buying credit suisse. in the interview with the swiss newspaper, the chairman said he was focused on organic growth. he added the bank's message was quote no surprise. arabile, there is so much to talk about with the banking sector i would zoom in first on credit
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suisse the story they could prepare for substantial job cuts in the investment banking division and i know credit suisse is in a difficult position they are trying to cut costs and deliver on the restructuring program. a ton of execution risk associated with the program they have been embarking on the last couple years they want to cut costs, but if they want to grow, on the other hand, and improve return, they need top bankers how do you -- how do you deal with that? how do you find the balance with retaining top talent, but also differing the cost cuts you promised the market? >> just remember that once you've lost clients like they did in october last year, the desire for the top talent to stay in the jobs as well does diminish and wane. recruiting and trying to find fresh talent becomes very difficult. they find themselves in a tough
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one. ubs saying we don't look to help out in any way lifelines are few and far to come by. delivering on this restructuring package is very, very key and important for them with the huge withdrawals and the initial wave was 2,700 global reduction. that is about to change. just a shadow of itself is what i expect credit suisse to become if everything goes according to how they move forward here >> major restructuring a lot of work to go. coming up on the program, u.s. banks post mixed earnings in the 40 qfourth quarter, but r or recession and belt tightening continue we'll discuss more after the break.
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under pressure to move away from the loose stance as policymakers prepare to meet. european equities trading higher as global leaders descend on davos and december wholesale prices double digit for the year and ease back from november levels. german defense minister announces her resignation among skepticism about her ability to manage the military. credit suisse preparing to cut 10% of the investment bankers this year as the lender works on the next wave of restructuring. important note has been the bank of japan set to kickoff the
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meeting tomorrow and word expected on wednesday on its central bank policy stance word coming from the economy minister saying that the council on economic and fiscal policy special sessions are held several more times and no plan to compile a report on those session outcomes also saying he is to tell the davos meeting that the economy is priority over fiscal reform in the near term trying not to lose confidence in public finances in the long run that's the word from the japanese economy minister as they head to davos with the priority on economy over fiscal reform in the near term. >> interesting to get that insight from the fiscal authorities in japan
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we will turn to the policy side with the boj kicking off tomorrow the europe markets with a choppy session. investors are searching for direction. dax trading 20 points higher swiss market building up .50%. ftse 100 up 13 points. ftse mib in italy crossing in positive territory you see the cac 40 flat on the day. investors in wait-and-see mode as the u.s. is closed for the mlk day. here is the big movers in the fx market euro trading on the back foot against the dollar down 108.17. sterling losing ground against the greenback. down .25%. a lot of movement this morning the yen also has been moving up and down versus the dollar it seems investors can't make up
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their mind what does the surprise look like with the boj does this mean no change to policy we will see. as for the asian markets, a mixed picture. shenzhen and composite gaining more than 1% on the down side, nikkei 225 is down more than 1%. hong kong market ending the day higher we were trading in negative territory before "street signs" began. we have green on the board there as well. early this morning, monex groups told arabile and me that this posed no immediate risk to the economy. >> markets on markets and point of capitalism is there is some winners and some losers. you ask how high is the yield going to go and i think that in a year's time, the ten-year bond yield will be 2% rather than the .5 we have right now and the reason is that the japanese
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economy is actually growing and is actually accelerating and wage growth is accelerating. that's where it is right and proper to actually let the yield go and there will be many, many winners in that because if the cost of your mortgage or cost of your credit card bill is going up, that's terrible if your wages are falling. when your wages are rising, then we're in good shape. a mixed bag for the earnings in the fourth quarter. jpmorgan chase posted $35.5 billion in the fourth quarter. the lender warned that mild recession was now its central case elsewhere, profits as citigroup and wells fargo declined as lenders focused on building up credit reserves. bank of america beat estimates with higher interest rates helping to offset weakness
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bank of america's ceo brian monynahan told our colleagues they are looking to run against reice recession. >> the research team has been c consistent everything we see say mild recession. we are in great shape on capital and power through and be ready to deliver for our customers we feel pretty good about that >> meanwhile, cfo of wells fargo expects higher interest rates to have an impact on growth >> it is clear that the economy will continue to slow. that will be the result of it ultimately as the impact of higher rates takes effect. you are starting to see a little bit of that now and you are seeing a little bit of stress and consumer segments.
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overall, the increase in our allowance through the majority has been driven by higher loan balances, particularly credit card balances, came through. a little bit related to the economic environment >> ben jones, head of research at invesco is joining us to get a look at the earnings season. ben, clear signs from the banks in particular that, yes, things have been okay thus far. fairly resilient, but the worry is the sustained pressure and that's why they need to then up their reserves and up the ante with the warning which needs to be heeded for the remainder of the year >> good morning. absolutely that has to be key going forward. i think more broadly it will be earnings season and earnings all the way through 2023 that will be the core driver of the markets. i think even if we are looking for a mild recession or deep recession, we have to question
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where earnings can go from here more broadly earnings and particularly margining are coming off a high level. it is difficult to see them growing aggressively from here if you don't get that earnings growth and you don't get multiple expansion, obviously you will not get equities going higher i think it is suddenly the key driver here. for banks, the comments of the top there was suggesting and i'm not worried about collapsing earnings in banks or systemic problems in the banking sector, but looking for very anemic if any growth from the area at the moment >> firms are laying off. you saw the credit suisse numbers, but you have all of the other lenders aslenm looking t layoff staff that is because of the last two years. when that begins to show in the
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numbers and do you think that is the clearness we need to tell when that recession is coming? >> i think so. i think a lot of this depends on the broad labor market we are seeing layoffs in the financial sector and tech sector at the moment as well. we are not seeing a broad base across the economy. if you see unemployment starting to tick up, it suggests that it doesn't tick up in a small way, but in a big way as soon as one person losing lo their job, they stop spending. that will be key we need to watch is the labor market. that is what we need for the equity market. some of the bad news to come through to allow us to have tha catharsis or capitulation. >> ben, good morning companies have to write down
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assets left and right across different sectors. where are the biggest write downs likely to be seen? what should we watch more closely this earnings season >> i think the arrow i'm most concerned about is the consumer sector that is the biggest downgrade likely to come through we know in the uk there is a significant real income squeeze. i think so far while consumers do have those cash on the balance sheets, but the amount of money saved up during covid allowed spending to continue i worry this will be something that happens slowly and then happens quite quickly. you get that slowdown in spending and that will hit the consumer earnings. that is the area where i see most downgrade the flip side of that is something like energy which i've spoken to you about previously it seems a little bit strange to
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be more positive and not be worried about earnings in that space if we think we are heading for a lowdown or possibly of a recession. you get significant drops in energy and oil demand. this is different because i think the supply side is going to be the bigger driving force and allow us to remain more resilient in the energy space. also, at the same time, we have to get china coming back on stream as well i think some of the commodity demand coming through there will hold up energy and materials earning a little better than we would do otherwise in a global slowdown consumer is the area i'm worried about most and energy is where i see the bad news still priced in with the rallies we had. i'm not worried about downgrades. >> interesting okay what about the tech sector
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what do you think? will we revisit valuations from a couple years ago we have a more competitive landscape and threats from ai. is the sector be led by the behemoths? >> threats from ai going forward in the tech sector to answer your question directly, i don't think they will get back to the numbers we did see at the end of 2020 or 2021 for example they were overblown and positive of the extreme with the low interest rate environment. i don't think we are going back there any time soon. i don't think you get the multiple expansion of the levels we had previously. equally, i don't think this is the end of the tech sector i think there is a lot more nuance in the space.
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there will be winners and there will be losers the very large caps on tech names, i think, will continue to do well. i think they have decent moats around the businesses and they got elevated margins and it is integrated into everything we do on a daily basis obviously that other end of the spectrum with the zero earnings and the very high prospects of growth or speculation of growth will remain under pressure i do think you want some tech in your portfolio i won't write it off i think you want to be more nuanced and selective where you get it you want to go for those areas where multiples have come down, but earnings haven't collapsed earnings still in positive territory. in q2, the large cap names in that space. >> ben, thank you for the insight. great to speak with you as
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always ben jones at invesco have a great day. let's come back to japan we have more lines coming out of the japanese economy minister. this time around bank of japan governor kuroda. he made no comments today due to blackout period before rate review no surprise there given the meeting tomorrow it clearly tells you where the focus is that we are all waiting on tenderhooks for the policy meeting tomorrow and to reiterate global economy shifting to new policy and yellen's calls to shift away from conventional supply side economics. the economy minister will tell the davos meeting that the economy takes priority over fiscal reform near term and trying not to lose confidence in
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welcome back to "street signs. house speaker kevin mccarthy says he expects they will cap spending to avoid a default. the u.s. credit rating was downgraded in 2011 republicans are demanding cuts and using the debt selling as leverage. more classified dockuments found at president biden's home in delaware. six pages were discovered in the private library, more than known. this comes after the department of justice launched an investigation after other classified documents were located at the president's home in delaware and an office in
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washington, d.c. german defense minister lambrecht has resigned officials called her to stand down after a new year's eve message where she talked about the war in ukraine while fireworks went off in the background the move comes as germany considers whether to send tanks to ukraine. russian missile strikes on the apartment block in dnipro killed 29 people this was the deadliest attack since the war started. the attack comes ahead of the meeting with ukrainian allies in germany this week to discuss fresh supplies and financial support for the country. world leaders and business executives gathering in davos for the world economic forum
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the war in ukraine and rising global inflation will be top on the agenda. >> so much is at stake we need to find solutions for the war and conflict we need to secure we don't go into recession and we have ten years of low growth as in the 1970s. that is at stake we need all of the stake holders to work toward safer and more inclusive growing global economy. >> the economy could reduce economic output by 7% according to the international monetary fund staff report. decoupling technology could push the losses up to 12% in some countries. the covid-19 pandemic and russian invasion of ukraine increased fragmentation. there has been a leveling off of goods since the 2008 financial
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crisis in just a couple hours, we kickoff our coverage of davos with the packed lineup we will have the finance minister joining joumanna. we get a pulse check on the commodities landscape for fortescue metals and we discuss with the secretary-general of oecd mathias cormann arabile, we are not at the top of the agenda. that was last time around which was bitcoin. we were talking during the break about how bitcoin has been on a tear up 13 sessions in a row at a time when inflation is beginning to come off. here is bitcoin two years ago at davos. tout as inflation hedge. new asset class that could
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become an inflation hedge and get adopted by the mainstream finance world. fast forward this time around. my understanding this is far from the top of the agenda for this swiss forum this week >> this is despite having had a year where wicrypto was the headlines. now pausing at 20,000 mark by the looks of it. between 60,000 and this seems to be the sweet spot for the last couple two months. this is the first time in over two months it passed 20,000. it does give you an interesting look, as you said, up 13 consecutive days, as now passing that level can i put a damper on davos? i know we're touting who is there and who is speaking with our coverage starting soon
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just quickly, some of the leaders that won't be there. you won't have joe biden there of the g7, one leader going which is olof scholz you have the head of the imf you won't have prince william or king charles or russia with the sanctions. they won't be there. janet yellen is not going to be there. south africa is more important >> perhaps reflection of the cost of living crisis impacting so many countries. tough to justify heading to the swiss region for theforum. we have plenty of coverage c coming up. i'm julianna tatelbaum he is arabile gumede see you soon
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narrator: in this episode of "american greed"... the promise of green energy gone bad. welcome to nikola in phoenix, arizona... narrator: the founder of nikola motors, trevor milton, is front and center with flashy promotions... that put him in the crosshairs of prosecutors. and when he unveils his all-electric truck... aw, that thing is so awesome. narrator: ...milton says it will change the world. his message was -- "we are the future." we're targeting the second-largest polluting industry in the world, the trucking industry. narrator: "american greed" goes inside what prosecutors allege
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