policies curbing growth and the country reports the first population decline in over 50 years. what does meme stock investor ryan cohen see in alibaba? it's tuesday, january 17th it's okay. it's warm. it's not bad we're in davos "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to ""squawk box" here i davos, switzerland i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we will speak with brian moynahan this morning.

we are showing you the picture there. we could take a shot he is here in the cold with us after brian, we speak with blackstone ceo steve schwarzman. we talk about private equity and prices right now if he is a buyer or seller in the next hour, we have palantir's alex krap we talk about the issues ceos are facing right now let's check out the futures. it is tuesday morning. the markets were closed yesterday in the united states you see the dow futures are open by 75 points s&p down 11 and nasdaq down 43 let's look at treasury yields. you see it looks like the 10-year treasury is yielding above 3.5% the yield on the 2-year treasury is lower at 4.23%. if you want to look at energy, that is the surprise warmer weather up until now in europe has kept energy prices under a bit of control that and covid issues with china bearing down on demand

wti is creeping up below $80 a barrel >> bitcoin >> it is at the bottom of the screen >> 21,000. the last three days. i don't know. >> you said $21,000. it caught me off guard. >> surprising. it has bounced from the lows a lot of bad news is out maybe. >> maybe let's talk earnings season we are now full in on wall street power players on deck we hear from goldman sachs and morgan stanley we hear from them in the next hour we are on the lookout for numbers and reaction we have the ceos of the companies late near in the weeke in davos jpmorgan chase and bank of america and citi and wells fargo reported last week we will take away something from that joe. >> time is the economy and population growth slowing in

2022 china's gdp grew 3% 3% in a lockdown world is better than what we do here marking the slowest growth rate in decades lockdowns with the zero covid policy taking a toll beijing dropped that at the end of last year we will see what the ramifications are. we will talk about it here and dealing with it here people from china are back back in davos. new data showing the population in china declined last year. the first drop since the early 1960s. the country reporting 9.56 million births versus 10.41 million deaths that begs the question do we believe that number? the covid death numbers are certainly pure fiction at this point. >> if you are talking about 1

million deaths in the united states over time, with better vaccine policy and health care system going through some of this, it is hard not to imagine that. >> intra-country travel picking up in china. they have almost a virgin population with immunity >> right we want to get to the first big guest in davos bank of america ceo brian moynahan brian, welcome it is great to see you in person great to kick things off >> great to see the snow outside instead of sunshine last may >> some bells ringing for you right now in the background. >> that is joe >> it is >> i thought since you were our first guest, you can tell us how the world has changed since january of 2020. the last time we had a january d davos. >> think about the pandemic and war and the invasion of ukraine. we heard about people getting

sick in china. and then think three years later, effectively, you have seen the ability of companies to push work at home and bring back look at china in lockdown. you have seen massive intervention on the monetary side and now withdrawn you saw miassive fiscal parolic. >> just in terms of the economy, obviously this is a moving target i know your team has some news today. they are changing economic outlook slightly still talking about a soft recession coming, but pushing that out later in the year because consumer spending is stronger than most people anticipated. >> our team basically would have said at the end of 2022, you

would see recession. now it is pushed to 2023 the strength of the u.s. economy is coming through. as the fed raises rates, they are slowing it down. there is spending not at the same rate. inflation is hurting people. they are trying to get it under control. they say mild recession and fed raises funds to 5% to 5.25%. they do it in three 25 as opposed to 50 or 25. unemployment gets to five. it comes out later it will push it through a little bit. we will see what happens >> do you agree? the management perspective has been different than house perspective? >> we have accountants i talked to research team is the best in the world. we see spending has slowed across the consumer base

that is good news and bad news first quarter of 2022. 14.5%. 5% in fourth quarter 2022 over fourth quarter 2021. it is back up to 6%. it is resilient. that 5% is consistent with the economy and lower inflation. that consumer spending is strong consumers have money they spend it down they still have a lot. the conundrum i keep asking is how do you have unemployment of 4.5% and get to 5% and have recession? we have an unemployment-less rece recession? you start to see the tension. >> you don't know what recession is anymore it is not two back-to-back quarters of negative i ask everyone this. is the market wrong? is the 10-year wrong is the market right and the fed wrong? why should we think the fed is

right? they can't forecast. they use backward indicators why should we think they know 5.25% is necessary >> they are back in the timeframe where it is climbing a wall one step at a time. they had to fight inflation. the good side of inflation is coming down. china opening may contribute to more supply which could lower prices it is a tough thing. the u.s. is shortage of labor and people you hear about people rea readjusting head count we had to hire 5,000 people in the fourth quarter of 2022 you know, just to maintain neutral head count >> if wage gains went to where inflation is, that would be nice that would be fine they need to say we don't like that we need to do more work. i have to be happy with that which we are seeing already. 5% is low historically you can do the math on what 1.5%

means and how many people lose their jobs is that necessary? you think short rates get to 5.25%? >> i think if you listen to dialogue with the economists and fed, they are trying to figure it out this is unprecedented. the idea that consumers have money in checking account this late in the game is different. they didn't have that money going into the financial crisis. the difference with the housing market against pre-financial crisis, the bank portfolio is 50%. it is not over line. people are saying the credit card balances are up they are still below 2019. this is going to go on in the best economy in the world in america, you see consumers do what they do best. go out and travel and do things. >> preach.

you were using it to say the fed has more work to do. that is not the way to run the economy. all of those things bother the fed. savings rate is up credit limits. oh, no >> the best thing about the u.s. economy is the toughest thing for the fed to control consumer-driven economy with the employment levels is a good thing and spending and wage growth they have to bring it back the question is -- >> the question is what an equilibrium? what makes sense >> you will have 8,000 economists on here to debate it. the reality is they have to be careful. they can overshoot they weren't taking inflation on a year and a half ago. telling us it is transitory. they will be resolute to prove they have it they have to be careful to joe's point. if they don't need to, why >> with you, ceo of the biggest bank is it like taking castor oil

don't you wish they would leave it alone for customers and business >> inflation if they don't get it under control, listen to the comments. >> you think that is a possibility? i don't see anything like '70s all of the money printing. >> brian, can i ask about twitter? they bow -- borrowed 13 trillion dollars. that could start as soon as the end of january >> i don't get involved in individual decisions that would be a slow enterprise. i'll leave that to the people working on it and the owners of twitter. look, we're comfortable. >> how do you feel about selling debt at a loss >> we have done it before. we have been in this business for a long, long time. you know, when the market stops cold, you make your marks. we had strong revenue in trading

and banking. the industry is down >> different debt related question mortgage business. fascinating to me. we wereively getting out o the business most of the big banks and you, are not emphasizing the mortgage business you may disagree i'm curious what is happening. >> remember who you are talking to >> i know. >> 2010 and 2011, we made the decisions to get out of the loan business we said you are a customer and we will make the loan. we have been doing that for 10 to 12 years. we have 3% or 4% market share in mortgages. we can do more there we continue to drive and grow it it is not a separate business. we decided a decade plus ago it wasn't a separate business we do mortgage loans for customers.

we have 60 million customers >> the good news on the banks having smaller market share. i don't know if it is bad news or good news that smaller players have a lot of the share and what it means. >> it is up to the government agencies and guarantees. we made the decision to do the mortgage business this way other people made similar decisions. it has been right for our customers. we have $200 billion mortgage loans on the balance sheet it is just we geared itto focu on who our customers are and how to help which lowers the cost of doing business in the infl inflationary business. we service the debt lending capacity with partners and others who make it work. it is a commodity business >> what are your goals this time around what is the thought?

>> we will continue to work on the metrics. we have 200 companies disclosing the only system that makes the progress of capitalism and capitalism making progress our goal is to keep that going and we will keep that momentum going. you looked at me when i was crazy and now we have 200 companies across the world at the end of the day, we have to repair the friction from last year and not being together is important. >> you care about the stake holders, brian you should see the way we operated you've always cared about them >> banks are creatures of the community. some people got together and said how do we help the commu community? >> before the ftx blowup, did you get to the point you talked to some people at bank of america and said don't get into this stuff

i don't want to be blind sided if the future is crypto. have you gone back the other way? how do you view? it could be disruptive >> we look at it and the value proposition of the payment system promote d by that. we have pay to pay systems worldwide. those systems allow to get the transfer from consumer to small business and me buying something from brazil and ecommerce stuff. we will keep driving down the cost the payment system iseffective across the world we understand and try to apply it it is hard to find the compelling value it is interesting, but we are sitting with 100 issued patents.

we try to apply it to business we never applied the cryptocurrency side. i'll let you talk about that all day. >> you don't think bank ceos just, by definition, don't want to be intermediate >> digital movement of money we will move $3 trillion digitally by the time you get up in the morning it has been going on for years >> this is not a green screen. you look like you are in a studio you are not cold we're sitting here like this people are at home >> he is a little manlier than us >> i have been doing this with you now -- >> we're outside >> we're going to be sitting here for three hours >> you can't wait to gel ot offh set. >> he is tougher. >> this is a wonderful place the dialogue is really needed to

get people sitting in a room to talk let's get people talking >> agree brian, thank you for joining us. we appreciate it >> good for us to have you first. thanks coming up, china economy growing at the slowest pace in decades. the country population declining for the first time since the 1960s. we will talk to blackstone ceo steve schwarzman we are live from davos i have the stockholm syndrome. we're back in a moment >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

♪ ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco. this tiny payment thing- because if it's connected, it's protected. is a giant pain! hi ladies! alex from u.s. bank! can she help? how about a comprehensive point of sale system... that can track inventory, manage schedules- and customize orders? that's what u.s. bank business essentials is for. (oven explosion) what about a new oven, can u.s. bank help us there?

we can serve loans in as fast as 12 minutes. that would be a big help! huge! jumbo! ginormous! woo! -woo! finding ways to make your business boom. that's what u.s. bank is for. we'll get there together.

and we are looking right there live of the vice premier speaking now at the world economic forum in davos, switzerland. among the headlines so far, he says trade and domestic consumption in china will return to normal this year. earlier, the secretary-general said here at the world economic forum that china reopening is overwhelmingly positive in the global fight against inflation here to talk about the global economy and private equity industry and economy and more is steven schwarzmann

you are a knowledgeable source we want to talk about the united states we are at the world economic forum. let's talk about that. is it possible they get all the way back this year or have to deal with the continuing effects of the pandemic in the population that is largely not either immune or vaccinated? >> joe, i think a lot of change is going on in china when one of the waves of the pandemic comes in, we saw this in india, it is three-to-four month start to finish type of thing. so that would have, i think, a similar outcome with china >> they could be back to full strength in 2023 >> certainly by the end of the year

probably in the fourth quarter what you are seeing which some of us expected is after the party congress in october, china has reversed most of the policies that they put in over the previous two to three years which were slowing their economy and creating a variety of other issues the chinese are infinitely practical. this wasn't working out well of the so they are changing it. i met with somebody right before i was coming on who was just in china talking about some other reforms that people don't know about yet. his company has been advised about. these kinds -- >> what reforms? >> vigorous lurches.

>> social reform >> this is normal. >> what reforms? >> this is a secret, andrew. >> that's why we want to know. >> i can't spill the beans. >> a tech company? >> i can't spill the beans on global television. >> if china reopens, it could be good for inflation i would make the case for commodity inflation. supply chain and other disruption offset that >> i think you are right, joe. the supply chain normalization for three years has really been plaguing the global economy should be normalized quickly >> that, obviously, would help >> at the same time, you have so many u.s. companies trying to diversify the supply chain and problems and concerns they will work with the united states and chinese governments. what does that mean if we are talking three or four or five years down the road?

>> i think, becky, it is really hard to take a supply chain out of where it is it is quite easy to change it on incremental demand i think that is what you probably will see and there will be some period where the developed world suppliers takers of goods from china figure out how it's working >> how do you handicap long term the relationship and how it looks like is china going to take taiwan? what happens if that happens do multibusinesses say we can't be there should there be a discount how do you see that? >> i think it starts from principles as you indicated which is about taiwan. i'm not expecting anything to happen on that for probably around ten years. >> ten years

why? >> well w, i think china has ote business they have been telling people privately that they are focused on other things and that they've lived with the current situation since 1949 in 1949, when taiwan was established, the current chinese government basically said in 100 years, we will be reunited let's take them at their word on that >> where is the fine line of walking between endorsement of putin and ukraine and co- existing for oil and whatever else when you speak to people that tell you seyou secrets, do theyy they are not happy about >> there is not much you can do

about it china made a decision. that decision involved a period of difficulty with the united states i think you have to ask them they felt they were out of options and the negative approach by the united states -- i have a lot of friends in china who said we don't know what we can do to please you we're sort of done how you get to that position, you know, takes a number of people it takes policy issues and it takes behavior on both sides i think they felt they were out of options >> some of the criticism of

ughers you know, american companies don't view us with such -- we judge a lot about what goes on in china >> i think what they typically say is this is an internal issue in our country we don't comment on internal issues in your country you have lots of problems. political division all kinds of inequities and other types of things. we don't go to meetings and starting talking about that. >> do you think that is a real comparison they can say that, but that's a false statement. we don't have people in interment camps. >> i'm not defendingthat >> i'm saying iran says that about us, too.

>> their view is that's not a productive way to move the dialogue ahead what has been accomplished at the end of that is they end up as allies with russia which is not, i think, where you want to end up from a u.s. perspective >> steve, can i ask about the sna markets? are you a net buyer or seller? there wasn't much to do with equity prices so high? >> becky, my experience, which is getting more and more as i get older, it takes about a year to a year and a half to re-price assets what happens is at the beginning -- pretend you have something worth 100 and your

stock goes down to 70. you keep thinking about 100. after about a year and a half, you are used to 70 you don't like it, but you are used to it if somebody offers you 80 or 85, that is a good day. >> we have a longer way to good. -- to go. >> we have a while to go before it adjusts the cycle is almost always the same with real assets. >> the return prospects in the future are the same? you made this unusual deal in california recently. you guaranteed a piece of return i wonder if that was both investors being skittish or you being bullish long term. >> we didn't guarantee anything. we basically took $1 billion of

units and put them available if there was a fall short in return to somebody else blackstone itself didn't -- >> right it is a protection mechanism >> it is somewhat limited. in other words, you really have to love this fund. what we're subsidizing is a 4% return if -- if that fund earned nothing, then the investor would get 4% it still would not be what they were expecting for an investor to want to do this, you have to really love what we own. what we own are the best things you can own in real estate which are warehouses and multifamily

>> they are playing music. real quick people say when you lose schwarzman, you will not be nominee. air canada said both nominees have special counsels. you feel donald trump is going to be the nominee in 2024? do you think it will be a different individual >> i said what i believe, joe, that it is really time to move on to a new generation of people running for that office. we've had four unsuccessful republican elections 2018, 2020, special election in georgia and 2022 i think, you know, it is relatively easy to read what the public is thinking

>> okay. >> i think, you know, both parties ought to have fully competitive candidates >> it's coming soon. >> it is >> steve, thank you. >> great to see you. wish you could see his pants great pants for davos. i'm saying they are great pants. coming up, he is a meme stock icon ryan cohen getting into alibaba. find out why when we come back verodas. want more from your vitamins? get more with nature's bounty.

from the first-ever triple action sleep supplement... to daily digestive support... to more wellness solutions every day. get more with nature's bounty. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you can have everything you need to streamline your shipping, returns, and product storage, so you can focus on growing your business. because when we work together, the future is

bright. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions at finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today.

ryan cohen, founder of chewy.com looking for a stake in

alibaba. now looking to speed up the share buyback plan cohen contacted the board in august to share his views, but shares were under values and it could hit double digit sales in the next five years. that stock up marginally on the back of it becky. when we come back, ceo of bny mellon with his take on the economy and roaodds of recessio. we will have the quarterly numbers from goldman sachs and morgan stanley ahead of that, you are looking at those stocks down marginally. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way

to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

the bank of new york mellon is the latest to trim head count jointing morgan stanley and blackrock. they will cut 3% of the work force by year end.

joining us now is the ceo of bny mellon welcome. thanks for being here. >> good to be here >> you just got here we appreciate it "a" for effort a lot of companies during the pandemic added too many people that is not the case here. is this a preemptive move if we have a slowdown based on the fed-induced slowdown you figure get it out of the way now? >> for us, we had a very solid year in 2022 we were pleased with the p performa performance. the last couple years were higher growth expenses than we wanted we are taking steps for a good path on 2023 and beyond. >> where did you find, i don't want to call it fat, you don't want to refer to employees like that where do you make room for reductions >> we touch about 20% of all

investable asset as cross the platform we are a global firm 40% of the activitctivity is oue of the u.s we looked up and down across the population we have been focused on being efficient at the management level. we saw bureaucracy and inn effect as i. we set on the right path to go forward. we are stewards of expenses. we are in the business of doing that. >> europe is performing better than expectations. have they been able to dodge the energy inn d-- induced slowdown? are they on par with the united states >> what our data is showing us is we probably see peak dollar at this point. we also probably have seen peak

selling of equities at the moment that's through our data set that we actually see. we see some of the tipping points through our flow data >> is that a bottom, robin >> i'm not going to call the bottom of the market that is what our data has shown. we have seen abatement of selling in equities that we have seen over the course of the last year >> that is significant considering how many assets you manage you are not a technician, obviously. no final capitulation low with the vix at 40? that's not necessary it is a long-term base that sets up >> our economics team has a point of view in that will see slightly higher rates in the u.s. than the market currently predicts we don't have any data for that. that is their perspective. we perceive the risk of the staying higher for longer than

the market is currently expecting or at least priced into the market. it will be data driven, obviously. nobody knows the answer to that question it seems there is a risk. equity markets will take a cue from that. >> is it easier to have a balanced portfolio >> the age old debate of 60/40 we know neither have performed well in 2022 i have seen the debate playing out in terms of what people think. look, it is my perspective we should be a little bit careful because something happened one way last year that, therefore, it is dead forever the world and paradigm has changed. it has been a standard that worked for a long time this could be the year where bonds are attractive again serm -- certainly in the short end.

>> not the elephant in the room, but tiger in the room. china is back. is that going to go smoothly obviously, we welcome the chinese consumer back into the global picture >> when we saw the reopening in the u.s., we saw an important surge ofactivity that came as result of that it is this entirely possible to something similar with the chinese economy reopening. we got benefit of that in 2021 and 2022 we have not seen that same impact from china yet. it is possible we will see that as a result of reopening one assumes it will be helpful to supply chain challenges we have seen in the world over time and which has contributed to inflation. >> do you have a quick rule for what constitutes recession and will we have something called a recession in 2023? >> the ultimate question i watch cnbc to know the answer for that >> that's a mistake. i'm kidding.

i'm kidding. >> there it is >> way to blow the sound bite. >> exactly right. we were going to use that. no, nobody knows we don't know the definition at this point you know, by some definitions, we already had one >> as far as our business is concerned, remember, we really are the largest custodian. we have $44 trillion of assets we look after for clients. we help them navigate. >> do you feel better about this year over last year? >> i do. >> it is never a mistake if you can't laugh at yourself robin, thank you. when we come back, what does the future hold for the workplace? we bring that discussion to davos next in the next hour, we speak with honeywell ceo darius adamczyk. a reminder you can watch or listen to us

live any time on the cnbc app. we are coming right back from davos, switzerland at the world economic forum why are 93% of sleep number sleepers very satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can gently raise your partner's head to help relieve snoring. so you can both stay comfortable all night. save $1000 on the sleep number 360 special edition smart bed queen now only $1999. only for a limited time. the first time you made a sale online was also the first time you heard of a town named... dinosaur? we just got an order from a dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. godaddy. tools and support for every small business first.

♪ this feels so right... ♪ adt systems now feature google products like the nest cam with floodlight, with intelligent alerts when a person or familiar face is detected. sam. sophie's not here tonight. so you have a home with no worries. brought to you by adt.

still got it >> welcome back to davos we are in switzerland at world economic forum with the return of the winter gathering, leaders are facing a new order. our next guest is switzerland. leaders are facing a new world order of sorts our next guest, adam grant, the author of "think again," the power of knowing what you don't know, and host of rethinking, the podcast. great to see you >> likewise. >> we have a million questions we want to talk about the future of work and also what is happening now, the stakeholder capitalism for years, and there's a backlash happening in the sort of anti-woke thing that is happening we heard the managers needed to

do certain things to appease their workers, right now, in a more challenged environment, not only is there layoffs, but maybe those things go away. what do you think? >> i don't think they are going away, andrew, do you >> i do. >> maybe it was a loaded question >> we can only hope. >> employees are going to stop having opinions? it's not going away. >> look, if you know your company is doing layoffs, a lot more people are getting back in the office because you know if you are out of the boss's sight -- >> there was a period of time where it felt like one of the benefits, the free perks, was the company was going to speak out on your behalf, and this became a forum, the world economic forum became a forum for that, and i wonder if you

think that's a boom taupb phenomenon >> that's an interesting question, and i would like to see more data before having an opinion on it, and consumers are going to continue to put pressure on companies, and there are lots of tools externally and internally that allow people to have a voice the fact that i could work r remotely or hybrid -- >> from the consumer's perspective, they want to see people doing the right thing, and now you are seeing red states jumping in saying, you you have been forcing us to do things we don't want to do that. >> it's a catch-22, isn't it >> yeah, stinks.

>> you mentioned hybrid work where do you think we are? there's a shift going on, or is there? >> yeah, most companies are hybrid now, and -- >> a lot of companies are saying that was a mistake, and we have bob iger saying are we moving to a four-day workweek. where do you think it all lands? >> i think that's probably a mistake. what are the best -- >> which is a mistake? >> the four day. the iger >> that's too much >> you're crazy. >> let's talk about the data for a second let's hear what the evidence says randomized control experiments you do a hybrid trial, and this is nick bloom in china, when

people are hybrid they generate more work products and engage with a wider range of colleagues i don't need to sit in a room every day to do our job. >> we do >> you don't believe this? >> no. >> i am not even a millennial. come on. >> he's a boomer >> mark in the office here, he's a larger than life figure and talks about stakeholder capitalism and the like, and he was on the bandwagon of working from home, and he talked about maybe even some of that being a function of some of the hybrid stuff. >> yeah, i am not saying it's without challenge, right it's a new problem to manage i don't think we should just go

back to the way we have always done it because it's different >> i will give you that. there are ways to be flexible and ways to work around it and five days out of the office is not a good idea either. >> yeah, depends on the work people are doing we could divide it into sports if you are doing gymnastics, you don't need to go into the office if you are running a relay race though, i better be in the same room where somebody is receiving the baton. >> you put out a tweet it's one of my favorites got a lot of attention on all sides. how quickly somebody answers you on e-mail does not mean how they

care about you i like the idea, but when i don't respond quickly i think the other person thinks that i don't really care about them >> i think they do obviously they don't have visibility into your day and don't know how over extended or committed you are, but there's a bunch of evidence in this, when i send an e-mail you think i expect a faster response than i do, and you could put respond in the next week, not urgent. >> thank you when we come back, another big hour ahead from davos. we will find out what michael wirth thinks about the demand d pp ptuto, o. we will bring you numbers and the instant reaction

(voya mnemonic.) there are some things that go better...together. burger and fries...soup and salad. thank you! like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you make smarter decisions. for a more confident financial future. hey, a tandem bicycle. can't do that by yourself.

(voya mnemonic.) voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.

global thinkers gathering to talk about the issues that matter to your money in this hour, we have special guests the futures in the red at the opening bell morgan stanley and goldman sachs are set to report this hour. we will bring you those results. plus, the founder of chewy.com pushing for the company to speed up its share buyback plan the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now

good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are at the world economic forum in davos, switzerland. take a look at equity futures at this hour, and the dow looks like it will open off about 48 points, and s&p off about 8 points treasuries, looking at the ten-year note. oil, wci crude, if you want to buy it by the barrel, you can do that

joining us now to share his outlook on the economy and business is honey well ceo, darius adamczyk. >> good to be here >> things can change quickly especially when you are looking at the global economy. there's a whole lot of gloom and doom when you talk to people here, and last time we talked to you, you were slightly more optimistic and said it did not seem as dire as people were talking, at least not from your perspective? >> i think i see things in a similar way, and i have not been fully enlightened with the views. >> it will come. >> i will get there. i see things in a similar way than i did five or six weeks ago

when i talked. i think there will be pockets of strength, like the aerospace business, and more broadly, the energy segment in terms of the classic hydrocarbon driven and renewable and sustainable fields, we see strength there. there are also short-cycle businesses that will struggle. we saw positive signs, which there are some indicators that maybe you have seen the worst of inflation and starting to tip over a little bit, and we have to remember that the fed and other central banks, they have to have a fairly aggressive policy to make sure that inflation is really under control. as i look at some of the major challenges facing us here in 2023, it's similar to 2022 we still have the russia/ukraine conflict, and we still have to think about next year.

>> we feel like we dodged a bullet just a couple weeks ago here in europe it was warmer than it usually is this time of year, and that gave a little room for relief in terms of higher energy costs and if there would be enough energy to go around it's getting cold now. sit too soon to say this winter is not going to be a crunch? >> based on the numbers that i saw in terms of storage and so on, it's unlikely europe will see an energy crunch this winter >> that's great. >> we have to remember the storage tanks got filled with russian gas for the most part in the summer -- whenever they started sending the gas over that's going to have to be done differently as we get into the winter of 2024, and i think there's challenges ahead for europe to make sure that there's no energy issues >> a lot of what you are doing here -- correct me if i am wrong, but a lot of what you are doing here in davos is looking

at initiatives related to climate change, and what companies are doing to get in line with those requirements in their countries. >> it's over 60% of our business and a higher percentage of our expenses the key reason i come here is i don't get to see 20 customers in a day, and we are talking about some of the issues and challenges they are going to be facing >> there's talk climate change may be getting pushed to the back burner especially if a recession takes place around the globe, and if you are worried about a recession you are not looking at longer term stuff what would that mean if that's the case for you >> it's certainly possible, and some of the customers we talk to, they are facing a tougher

environment in 2023, but i have not heard anybody say we are going to cut our budget for alternative fuels and things of that nature, so i have not seen a correlation between a tougher economy and a different path from stustainability. they have all made pledges to be carbon neutral, and you can't start in 2023 and get there. >> what are some of the biggest initiatives you have on that front? how do you help a company -- >> for us, our biggest technology used globally is green fuels. we're the biggest process technology provider for green fuels, and we play a big role in hydrogen, and plastics recycling. carbon capture, and that has much better viability in terms

of the economics >> what are the chances that carbon capture, not just at the point of, but more broadly, literally out of the air is a real technology five or ten years from now >> i think it's very possible. the longer we wait to become carbon neutral, at some point you will get down the line and that's the only solution you have some of the challenges in the technologies i saw, they are energy -- if you are using energy that is not clean, it's sort of filling the bucket at one end and emptying it at the other. there are challenges, and we have great news in terms of direct energy capture. there are still challenges there particularly in energy consumption. >> i think aerospace is 40% of your operating profits right now there's huge demand for lots of things in aerospace.

china, now that they are opening up and trying to get through things, what does that mean for the picture in 2023? >> it's net positive i think the way we open up for china, it will be positive for china and the globe. q1 could be rocky. we are going into the chinese new year and so on, and i think a lot of people may be experiencing covid or have experienced it, but overall we think it will be positive for the global economy and chinese economy. for us, with air traffic picking up, and i have not been to china in three years and a lot of my fellow friends here have to get there, and i see multiple trips to china this year just to get back in front of our customers and employees and out posts, and i think it will be one of the core international destinations, which is good for us in our

aviation business. >> at dinner last night, when asked in the room how many people had been to china in the last three years, and nobody went there >> what we will see in china is a little of what you saw in the consumer business, and when things opened up the consumer was substantially ahead of any projections in terms of their travel i think the same thing will happen to china. many business people have pent up demand. the relationship has -- it's more challenging we will continue to do business

in china, and i am encouraged with some of the meetings we saw with secretary yellen here earlier this week. i continue to be optimistic that there is going to be a way for the countries to engage in a constructive matter. frankly, having good economic relationships between china and the u.s. is not just good for those two countries but good for the club >> thank you for being with us this morning we appreciate you making the effort to get here >> thanks. coming up, alex karp, and then mike wirth.

i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck.

welcome back to "squawk box" here in davos, switzerland i spoke with alex krap, and i

asked him about the sentiment here at the world economic forum here as we kick off. >> i think the core issue for people behind closed doors at davos is clearly the world is not going to be the way we thought it -- clearly not more peaceful and -- >> sounds like we don't have audio. i don't think we have audio -- >> perhaps most fascinating we got into a whole big discussion about the war between russia and ukraine and the work they are doing behind the scenes. >> i don't think the war is likely to end in ukraine >> you don't >> look, it's very hard to know what is going to happen, but you have an adversary with a zero sum. if putin goes home and says we lost, he will lose his life and his friends will lose all their money and he will go to his grave feeling he lost, which he does not want to do. we in the west -- most of us in

the west, we agree, if we allow people to rape and destroy people who are innocent in that land, that will set a horrible precedent so we can't allow that to happen, and then we have superior technology and we can win with that on the ground, so it's a classic culture >> we also got into a big conversation about valuations and how valuations have come down and the washout in silicon valley >> our points and basic technology that is useful but not transformative, and what the situation is like the current one we are in, whether it's war in ukraine, and why did they ad adopt palenitir.

they have to rebuild their culture and attack that exposes things in your business that are both good, bad, ugly and transformative and of course everybody wants to be -- we are the best for making sure that cockroaches and others get proper nutrition yeah, that works under bad conditions but not under good conditions >> what do you make of the valuations that have taken place in the tech land, including your own company? >> valuations do reflect the health integrity of a business, and in the short term the valuations exposes those out swimming naked -- which, by the way, i embrace -- it exposes the weakness in the businesses and in the end, especially in

america where the stronger businesses will grow and thrive and expand >> what do you tell investors, the stock has fallen >> i tell employees, it's market conditions that affect the price. >> there are investors frustrated with what is called dilution -- >> yeah, what are the revenues going to be, and where are the revenues going to develop? all legitimate concerns. the investors we have primarily, the most important investors, are co-workers, and we believe our business is stronger than it has ever been and we have a lot of evidence that convinces us. we believe our conviction will convince the world over a multi-year period, and that's what i care about. >> the valuations before -- when this stock was a $40 stock, that was alice and wonderland crazy

town >> one of the things most comfortable about this company, is when you are outside the norm, a freak show, and i never thought the company was that good when the share price was 40, and i think it's just like you work on the business, and the huge problem, if you are like, full on, like, normal silicon valley capitalist p pretending you care about altruism, you judge your share by the price >> the world of spacs, which is affecting their stock because they made investments in a number of them >> most companies were not prepared for bad weather like we were stay away from companies not prepared for bad weather >> that was the lesson

but you invested in companies that were not prepared for bad weather? >> yeah, and we should be investing in ourselves >> how did that happen >> you make mistakes along the way. we made a mistake and corrected it and have moved on >> just to bring the conversation back to where we started, we were talking about the sentiment here in the world economic forum as things kicked off, and he had been here a little over a day. >> i think the core issue behind closed doors at davos, clearly the world is not going to be the way we thought it was, and it's clearly not more peaceful and less disjointful, and how do we do that where people still want to have an industry and supply

chains are disrupted >> there's a lot of pessimism here >> i am pessimistic about the near future, and optimistic with what we can do to help that. especially in the tech industry and to some extent here, but you have people that were certain they were going to win, and everything was going to break their way. sure, nobody would go out with them in high school, but they will own the high school and own the whole state and everything is going to work out, and all of a sudden all of these assumptions are not true they are in a little bit of a depression funk, and that's normal when things are not breaking your way, when the world changed, in a way. there's a lotof ways to make the world a better place first of all, the west can show we have superior technology. >> the world breaking in all sorts of ways. you can watch the entire interview includinghis take on

china on cnbc.com. when we come back, over 50% of all fortune 500s are work-day customers. it's down about 32% over the last 52 weeks as layoffs take hold in a rising rate environment. we will speak to the company's co ceos about the scores of job cuts and much more later, chevron c, eomike wirth, will be our guests.

♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

now adt professionally installs google nest products... cool. you're all set. so your home is safe and smart. we're gunna miss you. you can check in on your home. arm the system, we should go. manage your system from virtually anywhere. (thump) (scream) and get intelligent alerts, like when a package has arrived. - bye. have a good night. -boo! when the most trusted name in home security adds the intelligence of google, you have a home with no worries. brought to you by adt.

check out the shares of alley bubba, please. we are not ordering you to do this and the founder of chewy.com has built a minority stake in alibaba, and is pushing for the company to speed up its share buyback time the size of the stake is not

known at this time and cohen first shared his view that its shares were deeply under valued and could hit double digit shares in the next five years what is happening in the mean world over here? do you follow it anymore >> i don't think -- >> the meme stock world, that's not working out. i go to amc a lot. i love the theaters and love seeing things on the big screen, and that said, is it going to work financially that's the big question, right >> they sort of have a two-year window, here maybe less they have to figure out how to make money and pay off the debt. >> that's the question can they raise enough money? can the business get back to sort of pandemic -- better than pandemic levels. >> wanting the whole chain to

succeed and become a member of amc and get flavored popcorn, i can want all those things and still worry about it being a 3 or $4 stock? is that okay should i feel bad about myself for that >> you should never feel bad about yourself, joe. >> thank you still to come, the ceos on workday with how they view business in the current economic conditions that's next. plus, a earnings report out from goldman sachs "squawk box" live from the world economic forum in davos. we'll be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. the pandemic accelerated new technology as companies move their services to the cloud and workday provides cloud applications for finance and hr and workday comes in 33rd on

this year's just 100 list. it was number 1 coming in 1st as the most just company in environmental issues it takes two people to get to that point how is the marriage? i mean, do you see counsellors or anything? are there issues looks good, at least for the next year. >> we have been friends for a very long time carl has been on the board for five years i have been recruiting him for all that time, for five years. i did my job as founder with my partner, dave, and gat the next level we need a better ceo, and he will take over and i will move into a chairman role. >> this is adding to your expertise, i think you can bring in expertise from

a lot of different businesses? >> yeah, the first 29 years of my career was in an operating role, and then the last few years was with sequoia, and i spent a number of years on company boards, including neil's for the last five. when he approached me as being a co-ceo, i would say the first month as gone quite well no fights. we get along we are both good at different things, and -- >> i see these guys as the year goes by, you never know what they might do. do you have this in writing? >> as part of the announcement me joining as co-ceo, we decided we would put a stake in it saying one year out we would be definitive to a sole ceo

position, and i will keep him around he is best at product and technology it would be foolish not to want him around as long as i can. >> what is the next level? >> we want to get to $10 billion in revenues, and i don't think there's a finer operation in the industry -- >> is that a product thing a different product? new product? different markets you don't think you are reaching right now? >> my background and strength is products and technology. it's running the business and in particular the new markets and new industries and geographies, the there's nobody better than karl.

>> i want to move beyond the pandemic, and it was a horrible global situation, and there were certain aspects, and do you ever look back and think those were good days for zoom, peloton or whatever it was. did you over expand at that point? does that partly explain why you now need to downsize >> i am older and been through a lot of recessions, and we are not downsizing when covid started we went on a hiring freeze for the first eight months, and so when we came out of covid we were behind on hiring. we are always looking to optimize and make sure we have the right skills >> you are not trying to rationalize -- >> i would say optimize, and not rat

rationalize. we are adding -- we are going to add several thousand new heads this year. >> you are net? >> yeah. >> will that be hard to do will they ask for more money than you want to pay >> it's a better market than two years ago. there's lot of talent. >> we have to look at the existing employee base we have and optimize it and look at the skills and how do we take their skills to the next level to allow us to do more internally and prioritize these guys, and it's not about hiring but how do you up level the workforce you already have >> we talk about gpt and all 6

t of this. how should workers feel about that, potentially? >> first of all, i have been a big believer for a long time there's a great partnership between humans and machines. it doesn't have to be either or. and the first case is automating work, and that could be auditing drudge reports, and then the second one is where machines can plow through massive amounts of data and give the person making the decision a lot of insight into that decision, where it would take people years to go through that data, like human resource data, before they had a real conviction that data was useful as an example, our system can predict what the next role is for you in your company based on what people have done in the past who had successful career

paths. >> you could predict you may be wanting to leave, too? >> yes >> that's a big deal >> there's a lot of ways to predict, and that's powerful >> then you pay more to keep them >> if they are worthwhile, yeah. >> you said you had some deals that slipped from the first quarter, and how does that compare to the environment you two are seeing today >> i think the environment is uncertain. people are not sure we are going into a recession this is not -- if we go into a recession, it's a run of the mill recession, and not a global financial crisis >> it's slowing things down rather than olholding things off i think we would be better off if we were in a recession and people could plan versus waiting to see what happens. >> the workday customers, we

have a very large base that we can sell back into i think those sales move quicker than a new net sale. we are continuing to focus on those as well, so we have a good install pace and a new net opportunity. >> thank you are you guys -- you hang out, right? are you going to go to lunch together probably? >> we have been hanging out for years. >> and you go to parties and stuff -- >> yeah, i don't know if we are big partiers, but we definitely hang out and go to dinner. >> same floor at the hotel >> same hotel, different floors. >> we took different planes over here in general, we get along good, and as co ceos, i think we will have disagreements and

disagreements are healthy in this type of capacity. what is important, we can't just disagree but we need to align and go forward i expect nothing to change going forward. >> yeah, he has a life >> he makes me exercise every morning now. >> whenever there's a guy like you, young, maybe you don't need to be ceo anymore. >> i feel lucky. >> shareholders and employees and customers, that's good >> i think we have done it the right way. i am reiterating, i am not going anywhere >> wait, you are going somewhere in a year exactly, friend? >> no! >> joe, no >> he's going to be product and technology focus i want him there it's not a one-year partnership,

but a multiyear journey. >> all right watch out. let's get out to dom chu, and he has a look at golden sacks earnings >> both of those investment banking giants, goldman sachs, down 2%. and it appears it misses the estimate of $5.48. revenue is coming in at $10.59 billion. that appears to miss the average consensus of $10.83 billion for goldman sachs. investment banking overall, those revenues come in $1.87

billion. that beats the estimate of 1.75 billion. if you look at the trading and sales activity, fixed income currencies and commodities, which has been a big story for many of the big capital operations, and for goldman sachs, the net revenues is $2.69 million, and that beats consensus estimates for that unit, and equities comes in just narrowly missing consensus estimates on that front. for goldman sachs, provisions for credit losses, coming in more than expected $972 million the average estimate was for somewhere around $632 million. let's move on now to morgan stanley. there's an issue with the earnings per share reported that is comparable to analysts

estimates, but regardless it's a 1.31 reported by morgan stanley, and it's a beat, and morgan stanley revenues come in at $12.75 billion that beats the consensus estimate of $6.4 billion morgan shares unchanged. looking at the business units for morgan stanley, if you compare overall institutions securities, that comes in at $4.8 billion and misses consensus estimates for $1.5 billion, and then a narrow miss over the estimates of $7.2 billion. equities comes in at $2.18

billion, a narrow miss over the estimates. and provisions for credit losses at morgan stanley are not as big of a story there andrew, golden sacks shares off about two and a third percent. when we come back, we have mike wirth on the energy complex. 'r will be our guest next. wee back from switzerland and the alps in just a moment.

we know there has been a slowdown inactivity in the space. >> activity is down but deals are still getting done we are advising clients and using private equity to develop a diversified fund i believe pe will be opportunist in the coming months where i expect to see increased activity is investment in public

companies. strategic partnerships with large corporations also. >> given that, how are you advising your clients? >> a year ago they were largely focused on a growth agenda we are working with clients today to develop strategies and execute on those strategies, really tied to improving their cash liquidity position through capital perhaps, and sustaining their operating margins given the costs and revenue pressures they are under today, and then scenario planning, how to make sure you are prepared for the unexpected >> thank you for sharing your expertise. >> thank you all right, everybody welcome back to "squawk box.

we are in davos at the world economic forum you will see red arrows across the boards we have seen a little bit of additional weakness this morning. s&p futures off by over ten points, and the nasdaq down by over 45. this is coming after we heard of the earnings reports from goldman sachs and morgan stanley. goldman sachs is off by 2.6% we just got the numbers on that. morgan stanley looks unchanged by the way, that stock was indicated lower before the numbers came out that's a little weaker than we had seen goldman sachs at earlier this morning when we come back, we have chevron ceo, mike wirth. we will talk about prices, production and inflation, the outlook for the global economy and what the white house is saying about the oil price cap and whether or not that's working. he will join us after the break.

signature bank is leading the way here, up by three and a third. why are 93% of sleep number sleepers very satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can adjust your comfort and firmness on either side. your sleep number setting. to help relieve pressure points and keep you both comfortable all night. save $1000 on the sleep number 360 special edition smart bed queen now only $1999. only for a limited time.

oil prices are expected to rise as china reopens and energy demands increase from the second

largest economy. with us is chevron ceo, mike wirth. thank you for being here >> it's good to be here. >> it's cold out, and that was not the case a couple weeks ago. the winter weather in europe has been a godsend in terms of making sure energy prices did not get to high and there's not much of a crisis created by what russia is doing here on this continent. what does the rest of it looks like while china is opening up >> in europe, we are well into the winter now, and inventories are holding up, and demand is pulling back i would say europe looks like it's going to make it through this winter in reasonably good shape, which gives it a better head start for next year, which could be different we will see more demand in asia as the china economy begins to

grow again, and so the challenge would be to rebuild inventories. there's a lot of russian gas today that won't be there a year from now, and it will have to come from other places >> that's the same thing darius adamczyk was saying earlier this oil price cap they initiated i think it was friday that hochstein was saying this is working if you look at oil prices do you agree with that assessment, on you do you think there's other things playing >> i think it's more the macro economic environment, like in china. you hear more about recession -- i think the price cap came in at a time when we were seeing demand lower than anticipated. it came in at a time where it doesn't create some dislocations that it could have it's still early days.

we'll have to see how it plays out. >> does it feel like a floor we were just talking about putin's inability to end this, at least it will be going on for a while. it seems to me how do we get below $80 in that's a positive for domestic producers, isn't it? >> picking out prices is fraught. so, you know, we've been somewhat range bound lately, and 80 has certainly been a floor. we've had all these interventions by governments you can't sell from this country to that country, you can't buy above this price we're starting to put so many conditions and constraints on market, it creates some ridge i hadity

rigidity. >> are there still certain embedments, regulations, you know, leases not opening up where you would in fact like to go >> chevron hit a record in 2022, highe all-time u.s. production ever, and we intend to grow in '23. i think others are also investing to grow. >> by labor or. >> labor, rigs, equipment a whole series of things. >> not government? >> it's part of the equation >> you just said some of these conditions makes it tougher. does that mean there are things you're not doing >> what i'm really saying is commodity markets are highly official, normally very optimized in terms of logistics, and what's happened now is those flowing have been interrupted, they've been redirected, the pricing mechanisms have been

altered. it creates more tension on the system there's not a lot of spare capacity so an unforeseen event could create a price excursion, which under normal conditions the market could take. >> national security has shifted the balance. do you feel that that's making your life easier >> i wouldn't say it's making our life easier. there's still a lot of climate talk here. there's more talk about the economy. there's more talk about national security we're beginning to see a rebalancing of those three things, which are essential when you talk about energy. you have to have relike energy to have national security, and we all want a cleaner environment. >> normally you have the hat pulled down and you're buttoned up -- you don't, but we need you. we need at least for the next 20, 30 years

you could walk an and not be reticent about flying your chevron flag, can't you? >> we've always engaged in good discussions here, i've never backed away from them. >> i know. >> oliver stone is in town with a documentary effectively for nuclear energy >> i think nuclear will have to play a role. i think hydrogen and carbon capture, and fossil feels. we need different things in different parts of the world >> in the last ten years, $4 trillion has been spent and it's 85.9. >> and the system is a lot la larger one of the challenges here, joe is we need more energy, and the world wants lower-carbon energy.

we can do both we may not be able to do it as fast, but we can decarbonize the system even as we're building new technologies >> your symptom was up over 50% in 2022. bank of america just downgraded their rating on your stock, just saying that's a tough act to follow i think they still have a price target that's about 9% higher than the downgrade, but they're looking for 9%, maybe 10% growth how do you follow up a year like that >> well, we've been leading our energy we have a higher multiple than our competitors do, but the whole industry is really undervalued. you find cash flow multipayments still in the sing the digits there's a lot of tech companies still in the 20s we represent 5% of the s&p by market cap, over 10% by earnings so there's still a big

disconnect i think in terms of the investigation of the sector. i think just talking about, look, we've done well. i think the whole sector has room to grow we're a higher value than we were before, but not fully valued. >> i know you're in a quiet period now, so you can't talk that about what looking at with earnings, but we just want to thank you for spending time with us and always being so generous. >> always good to talk with you. >> great to see you, mike. >> great to see you. we will see you soon coming up, labor secretary marty walsh joins us at the top of the hour. we'll talk about wages, job growth, and bim ford from general atlantic will talk tech valuations, where he's putting money to work. he 'invested in a filmer of companies including uber,

airbnb, and tiktok owner bytedance. and chrisristiano amon here the dow is down triple digits, 122, we'll be right back ♪ ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to...

nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

thanks to avalara we can calculate sales tax on almost anything, anywhere, automatically. avalarahhhhh. what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh. filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh. managing exemption certificates? ahhhhhh. business license guidance? ahhhhhh. does it connect with accounting? ahhhhhh. item classification? ahhhhhh. cross-border sales? ahhhhhh. what about? ahhhhhh. ahhhhhh. do you have those budget markups? thank you. mmhm. [bubbles]

good morning inflation, risk of recession, global central banks, china, no shortage of topics for the best and brightest. they're gathered here. our special guest this hour, marty walsh, labor secretary here, and former australian prime minister, and incoming ambassador to the u.s. all of it in the final hour of "squawk box" begins live from davos, switzerland, right now. ♪

good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the world economic forum i'm told it's like 2:00. i have no concept of that, when it's "squawk box." >> 8:00 a.m. east coast. >> it's like 12 degrees or something like that. people ask, are we outside >> yes it's not a green screen. >> is it not obvious >> the wind in my hair >> the wind in your hair i love it when that happens. the u.s. equity futures, it's a headwind this morning. goldman sachs, that's unusual to see a miss that big. it's down about nine points. factor that right into the dow down 133 points. got quite a bit worse after the goldman numbers came out

bitcoin, we've talked about, up 20% in the past week, and back above 21,000 it was at least earlier. with a weak market, it still is. don't forget it was at one point 65,000 in the last 12, 18 months, whatever >> let's talk about the two big banks in focus goldman sachs shares under pressure right now, the ceo david solomon will join us in davos tomorrow we'll talk a lot about those numbers. morgan stanley posting better than expected earnings we'll also have james gorman on thursday morning the december employment report showed another strong months for job creation. the markets are focused on wage growth

joining us is labor secretary, marty walsh, first of all, thank you for being with us. >> great to be here, and you are outside, trust me. >> yes, we are this is for real the job market has unbelievably strong, to the consternation of the federal reserve at times, because they're trying to get their hands around inflation that's tough to do when you have such a strong jobs market. how do you look at things shaping up >> yeah. i think this months we'll have the best of all worlds we had a good strong job market, low unemployment number, seeing an increase in wages, and we saw the inflation number come down a bit. probably not as quickly as we'd like to see it come down, but we have seen it come down all of the different policies out there seem to be at least working right now. we're in a different situation from five months ago, in a better position today, and the president is focused on wanting

to see that number come down even more. >> are you and the rest of the administration willing to live with an unemployment number that climbs to 5%, maybe nor of that? >> i'm not an economist. i always like to preface that. i don't see that happening today. we have a strong market still, even in areas where you saw layoffs in the tech sector, many of those folks been finding jobs in other ways. you know, hopefully for the beginning of this year, moving into the spring and summer, we'll still see a strong job market >> from a messaging perspective in terms of a politically palatable. >> i want more work, higher wages. >> anything the fed says, you say the opposite >> because it's real.

>> i know. it must be frustrating it's a different world for me, certainly, coming from my past role. >> as mayor of boston. >> yes, but certainly had conversation with his folks at the fed, saying i'm going to continue to advocate for a strong market, continue to grow, continue to make investments in job training, apresentitionship. we invested over $380 million in apprenticeship in the united states we have infrastructure jobs, chips jobs, battery jobs employers will be looking for people we need to make sure folks are skilled up and ready to go >> can you tell the story that supply-side solutions are better than trying to hurt employment and hurt wages to run an economy? is there a way -- a better way to do it we're all on the same -- we're all on the same page. >> i think you guys do live this life, and you know it better

than i do, but i know that anytime we do have growth in jobs and construction moving forward, it's always good for the economy. now, obviously we need to continue to address the inflationary pressures we're able to do a good job with bringing gasoline prices down at a very fast clip we need to get other prices down people are still feeling the pinch in the grocery stores, in buying things they need for their homes. we need to continue to bring those prices down. it's a very different time, though the one thing i keep saying is this is not a normal kind of economic potential downturned. we're talking about a lot of it due to the pandemic, a lot due to russia and ukraine, impacts in europe and other countries on the global stage but i think if you look at the last five months, you know, the fed has raised the rates, jobs have been strong, inflation is coming down. it must be frustrating to know

that in real time, wages aren't higher than inflation. >> certainly it would be wonderful. what i would love to see this time with lower -- less inflation, obviously, where people are actually earnings money and can put some money in the banks. i think long term what's happening will be better for employees in america, meaning the job growth and wage growth >> how much do you focus on immigration. that's a problem no administration has been able to tackle in decades at this point. it's a problem that's led to such a tight jobs market you hear from employers all the time they're having trouble finding the right people to be able to do the jobs. the skills gap >> the president filed a bill on this, i talk about it all the time we need immigration reform we need a pathway. every industrialized country in the world depends on immigration to fill jobs they can't fill when you think about the united states of america, we educate all these kids that come from

all over the world, and unless they get a visa, they can't stay here, and that doesn't happen. one of the single greatest threats to our economy long term isn't inflation, isn't taxation, it's lack of workers. >> you'll have to compromise and negotiate, and part of what they're looking for is making sure there's additional security at the board tore make sure illegal immigration is non -- >> when we talk immigration, people think of the southern border that's not the immigration we're talking about. >> but it is republicans' point is you can't divorce that. >> i know that, but i talk to businesses, and business that is might be leaning republican, and i tell them all the time, talk to your friends in congress. they need to -- congress needs to figure it out impacting the economy, both republicans and democrats, republican businesses and democratic businesses, in the

future we can't let what's happening in the southern border get caught up in our economy and what's good for employment in america. >> i have two union-oriented questions. >> okay. >> one relates to what happens, for the last year, we saw a hot of lines around starbucks, amazon and the like, a union movement if you actually look at it on the whole and on the numbers, it's actually slowing down some people are saying that's success for the companies, means the companies are compensating, trying to fix things so there's not a need for more unionization ears are saying maybe the unions have just slowed down themselves and it's not working what do you put that at? is it a good or bad thing? if the unions don't wasn't to unionize, you say that's success for the company, the company is doing the right thing or not >> in some cases that's the case unions won't organize, because employees don't want a union, because they're happy. a lot of companies in america

pay their workers good and offer good benefits. that's the facts some of this chose the younger people who are choosing the organizing drives in starbucks and amazon are frustrated, because amazon and starbucks won't sit down and negotiate a contract they're kind of understanding this is not the way the progress should work. they decided to make a conscious decision to go out and rganize >> related to that, i talked to andy jassy, who i think is here. i saw him back in november he made an interesting comment the nlrb made a decision effectively going against the amazon he said you won't get an impartial decision, that's why oftentimes these things go to federal court. do you believe that? >> no, i don't believe that.

there's in the nlrb makes a decision, you have to live it. it may or may not go to court. i rarely talk about the nlrb i shouldn't be a part of it. >> there's a view that it's a political organization definitely when you get a republican president, the unionless say the same thing, that the decisions won't go our way, but it should be a impartial arbiter >> secretary walsh, thank you very much for that secretary walsh is the top administration official here from the united states, and we appreciate your time today. >> thank you very much. bill ford, who also sits on the board of bytedance "squawk box" will be right back.

if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, getrefunds.com can see if it may qualify for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if it received ppp, and all it takes is eight minutes to get started. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application; that easy. and if your business doesn't get paid, we don't get paid. getrefunds.com has helped businesses like yours claim over $2 billion but it's only available for a limited time. go to getrefunds.com, powered by innovation refunds.

why are 93% of sleep number sleepers very satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can gently raise your partner's head to help relieve snoring. but it's only available for a limited time. so you can both stay comfortable all night. save $1000 on the sleep number 360 special edition smart bed queen now only $1999. only for a limited time. i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please!

you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. welcome back to "squawk box. we are live from the world economic forum there's a shift in the public markets when it comes to tech

valuations and growth stocks what about the private markets joining us with an exclusive interview is bill ford, chairman and ceo of -- good morning, sir. are you cold yet >> i am cold >> one of the big topics is bytedance. where do you think the investment goes? >> first of all, first and foremost, the company has been performing extremely well. >> don't i know it >> the company's performing well you know, we've been engaged with the u.s. government, national security agencies since the review it started in 2020, and consistently again we're working

toward a national security commitment, and we're optimistic we'll secure union. >> are they right? is it a security threat to have their information picked up by some server in china, and we don't know what? >> all of the gaming is in the oracle cloud already we've taken the concerns seriously, and we've been executing in getting into a clean cloud, and i can say as of today, our data is in the clean cloud, safe and secure, really led by oracle. >> so do you think the folks don't know what they're talking about? you've had states, if you work for the government, you have to take it off the phone? >> i think there's a lot of misinf misinf misinformation we've stayed engaged and took it seriously, both during the trump and the biden administration the data is safe, has been safe,

and the algorithm has been reviewed. >> what is it about the data being safe today, versus the data not being used in some way in the future, or just the ability of the chinese government, if you believe they can control it, so effectively spread information or misinformation, get involved in politics or whatever, given the amount of power they have, given so many americans use this service. somebody said to me once this is the equivalent to, you know, the fcc would never allow one company to own every local tv channel in america this is sort of like data on the phone for a whole new generation >> the most important thing, myself speaking as a parent, is making sure the data is secure we have accomplished that. that was objective number one. the second is the algorithm, make sure the source code is also safe and in the oracle

cloud. we've done that, we're doing that that's always been the basis of the concerns of the national security organizations. >> more broadly, let's talk about valuations and what's happened to the whole space. what's happening here? >> we've seen a 30%-plus correction if you look at some of tech stocks, it's 50% to 70%, and a complete turn back to profitability. that's just starting to be reflected in the private markets. we've talked for a while to investors it would take two to six quarters for the private market to fully reflect what's happening in the public market. >> is that because folks are slow to mark it, like mark it down >> they raised a lot of capital on the up cycle, and they don't need to raise it the day of reckoning might be down the road, but i have started to see with stock option valuations, a lot of companies

marking down the valuation, so you get a 70% to buy it, but your leverage costs will be much more expensive at 5 1/4, so net net more attractive or less? >> i think it's more attractive. i think we're bottoming out no some of these companies. i think we'll start to see some very attractive opportunities in the next 12 to 24 months as the migh private market resets. you guys talked about it a lot >> tread lightly, or do you think 5 1/4 is reasonable? >> i think the 75 basis point increase makes sense i i'm expecting three 25s. i think inflation is starting to

slow down. i think the economy will stay between flat and maybe negative one. >> they're going to be perfect, threat the needle perfectly? a soft landing and we're all going to live happily ever after? >> i don't know that we can go that far. >> i hope so. >> but i do think that inflation is improving i think the toughest part has been the employment side, you know, where we're seeing very, very tight employment conditions and wages, pricing going up, but the other parts are moderating the other i think hidden positive is china right now. the biggest surprise the last three months is china opening up what that means for china growth and what it means for u.s. growth. >> inflationary or not the supply chain is not inflationary >> i think it's modestly inflationary keep it under control, and i think the fed is heading the

right direction. i think we have it just about right. i'm optimistic i think people are underestimating -- >> i always think of, look, technology investors of become focused on silicon valley. i realize you have offensively all over the place, but is silicon valley different than it was pre-pandemic you think about the workers who left, the valuations coming down on these places, the layoffs taking place right now, what is the mood, the feeling? >> think what's happening is entrepreneurship is way more distributed than 20 years ago. even all over the world. some of the entrepreneurs we're dealing with is southeast asia, of course china. again, when i started my career a while ago, it was mostly silicon valley that's where the action was,

where the entrepreneurial ecosystem was robust i think it's migrated. >> if we look at the origin story of the next companies you invest in, five years from now, where would they be? >> asia, india, southeast asia it's becoming an important destination as supply chains rebalance to diversify away from china. i think we're in the digit at decade for india a lot happening there you. >> you have the u.s. government thinking about how they should think about regulating investments in china do you worry about that? >> i do. i think it's not the right thing. the global investment industry is a real competitive edge to the united states. we have succeeded by investing in china so i think to try to put too many restrictions -- i understand national security we have to be careful in certain areas, but consumer, health

care, retail >> we have a lot of hawks come on the show, this whole relationship with china has not worked we've tried 20, 30 years, and it's not changed china do you think it has? >> it depends on what you mean by change. china has basically lifted hundreds of millions out of the poverty, and it's been an inflationary force for the last 20 years, by getting all that basically manufacturing excise, labor capacity to the world. we had deflationary or non-inflationary growth that we enjoy here in the united states and around the world i think it's a positive for -- it might have been more hidden, but i think it was a positive. >> a.i., people is talking about chatgpt and all this do you think these are r--

>> i think these are real. i think with chatgpt is just one example. i think you're seeing real application, really taking ahold. it's one of the most exciting areas in the next five years. >> thank you, sir. >> thank you great to see you all >> see you on tiktok do you do dances >> not really. you don't want to see that. >> just curious. coming up, kevin rudd will be with us, soon to be ambassador to the united states plus, you can get the best of "squawk box" right here on our daily podcast. we're coming right back from the alps in just a moment.

at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another ♪ ♪ ♪ engineered to elevate the senses... touch, sight, sound, and scent. it's the electric that recharges you. the all new, all electric eqe sedan from mercedes-benz.

♪ welcome back, everybody. here we are in davos at the world economic forum how about in the headlines, he told the audience, the world needs to band everyone its cold wall mental, in his words. he argued it's imperative for china to open to the world and beijing opposed unilateralism and protectionism. joining us is james rudd, and most importantly he'll be the

incoming ambassador from australia to the united states kevin, great to seeyou. >> good to be with you in this wonderful australian summer. [ laughter ] >> no coat for you, how do you -- >> i just left it inside by mistake. i was on the beach two days ago. this is our august >> is that true? >> yes, january is -- >> i've never been i need to see it for myself. >> you have a problem with the science there. >> let's talk a bit about china. that is the focus here there have nobody the representatives here from china since january 2020, the vice premier making comments, and you've been so helpful for us to try to navigate and negotiate the relationships between the united states and china. >> the chinese vice premier

leaves the office in march, and his message is china is once again open for business. it's not just a rhetorical statement. we see all the reporting on that but more broadly, he's sending an economic message out that, once again foreign direct investment is welcome, and that some of the more statused pro-party, anti-market sentiment we have seen will be rolled back he hasn't used that exact language, but deciphering all the stuff he's said, that's the message. >> is that more than just talk, do you believe that? he thiol a being the intelligent analyst i try to be, i put up last year's text with this year's, and

there's four or five areas where they have rolled back the antimarket stuff, whether it's the high-tech companies, the property sector, so-called prosperity done trick, the treatment of the private sector, et cetera, and basically said to investors at home and abroad, we are not open for business. the key question is, will private investors home and abroad believe in them we don't know yet. >> why the sudden change of heart. >> because the growth numbers were so catastrophic most market analysts think the published number is just too high, and the truth is, in the whole history of the reform opening, those are one of the worst years in recent years. >> because they have flip flopped, if you will, what they'll say tomorrow, and how you create that confidence, if you want foreign investors to

really be back you know, whether a year from now you would be reading a different text. >> exactly i call this a series of tact call changes, but still within a strategic framework, which is quite conservative i think you will see a kick up in growth this year, not least because you have a couple trillion of extra savings by individual consumers who haven't been able to consume since covid, now are out there about to consume consumption will pick up what will the private investors do >> and what are you hearing on that front >> mixed some are saying thank god that's over and we can get back to inve investing. others are saying once bitten, twice shy. so i think it's too early to tell on where investment will go or whether foreign direct investment will go

consumption will bounce back, some in property, some in tech. >> sometimes it almost depends on the day of the week how i feel about china i think australia has a different mindset, i think have you had a recession you can't have a recession down there, because you're so close to china, but we agonize about we uighurs, human rights, and finally i have come to the conclusion you need to deal with that regime, because you're not going to change that regime any time soon. i think of saudi arabia, what, we're going to stop importing oil from saudi arabia? there are things you just almost have to overlook in a relationship i'm back to that with china. we have to engage. they're a major -- >> it's huge, it's big, it affects all of us. i've been dealing with this

relationship for almost 40 years. i've seen the up sides, the down sides, the near conflicts, and the times of perfect peace and harmony. i think it's a bit like this, though -- the biden administration, i give it their due, a broad framework of managed strategic competition. compete like hell in a bunch of areas, hopefully have grid lines around taiwan, and hope it doesn't erupt in war there are still age of ststrate cooperation. whether it will succeed or no will hang a bit on secretary blinken's visit to beijing, which i think is due next month. >> do you have the same type of public pressure in australia >> yes, this is case universal for all serious, shall i say, western democracies -- the

united states, the germans, the french, the brits, everyone goes through this we all believe in human rights we stand up for the universal declaration of human rights, drafted by eleanor roosevelt great document everyone signed up, including china. the challenge is, do you prosecutor those differences at the u.n. in geneva, which is the custodian of all this, or do you turn it into a rolling bilateral fight? there's no perfect judgment on this all of us have to balance the strategic interests, economic interests and human rights interests. after all, we're from free countries, and we don't apologize for that. >> it's great to have you here. >> i appreciate being here >> we hope to see more of you. >> wait until thursday, it's going to be single digits.

coming up, the ceo of qualcomm, what still needs to be done stay tuned you're watching "squawk box," live from davos, switzerland we're coming right back. lling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. the hiring process used to be the death of me. but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪

why are 93% of sleep number sleepers very satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can adjust your comfort and firmness on either side. behold... all that talent! your sleep number setting. to help relieve pressure points and keep you both comfortable all night. save $1000 on the sleep number 360 special edition smart bed queen now only $1999. only for a limited time. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

♪ whether it's supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, from the war in ukraine, public and private collaboration might be the key to a more stable future joining us is cristiano amon great to have you on. >> happy to be here. >> what a huge set of issues, and navigating expertise you need for what's been a phenomenal company we have watched over the years you're trained as an engineer, but now of to be an ambassador, and soothesayer. >> a lot of opportunities. it's an exciting time. i think in general, despite the make roe economics in the short term, i think it's transforming.

the future of the company is digital. we've determined semiconductors are very important wee getting out of the supply-chain process, and hopefully the industry will resume growth. >> we're going to bring a lot back to the united states, i think that's an immense opportunity for qualcomm as well. >> the way we look about it, it's less about one location or another, if you step back, you like at consumption, pet expect in the next decade, we'll have to double the production of semiconductors so the key thing is, we need to build a very resilient supply chain. part of that is important to be geographically diversified we're super happy, especially being the largest fab-less

company, we need a supply chain to manufacture our chips with the initiative of the united states' chips act, our suppliers in the u.s., i think that will be good for the industry. >> apple doesn't use as many qualcomm chips, but you look at 5g and automotive, you're in the sweet spot. >> maybe if i say it that way, you look at the new qualcomm, we realize that the technologies we develop for mobile are finding its way into a number of other industries that, as the edge or outside the data center weeking for connectivity a good example of that i think our expansion into the automotive industry. we're very proud of that i think we're now working virtually with all car companies

in a number of things connecting the car dot cloud, the digit at cockpit experience, but we'll continue to be a supplier, but the company is focused on growing and diversifying to all the those other industries. >> will i be able to make a phone call on a satellite phone using it >> absolutely. >> anywhere? i won't -- i could be stranded somewhere? >> this is a good topic of conversation i think we'll see this new era of satellite communications yet another way to communicate if you look at your phone, you have cellular and wi-fi. seen you'll add satellite. we have a partnership with meridien, so globally you'll have your regular phone. if you want to be connected, you'll be connected. >> do you think the price will

become reasonable enough people can use it in a meaningful way >> i think so. the 5g standard in the next few years is also being adopted by satellite companies, what we call 5g ntn, nonterrestrial network. and apple has been talking about doing more and more of its own chips. it's something they have pushed back in terms of the qualcomm chips, what does that mean to your business longer term? >> sang thing i just says. i don't think apple has ever had any difficulty with his their chips -- >> i mean difficulties doing it themselves. >> i understand. here's how we think about it to doing -- if you look at a history of our company that is behind the invention of 3g, 4g,

and 5g, this is what we do there will always bedroom for qualcomm it's almost a physics question, to do with cable companies -- we're a parent company of cnbc, comcast over time did you ever believe that wireless communication can be faster than a wired communication? >> readiness in some cases we actually broke the barrier of 10 gigabit per second over a 5g link last-mile community indication or broadbandless two solutions -- fiber or 5g the reality is even if you have fiber last mile, it's wireless,

because that's wi-fi i think you'll see speeds in the multiples of tens of gigabits. >> but the expense of putting them together is high. the fixed-line wireless some say will be a limited market just because of the expense of putting in all the towers. >> a great example is what we'll see in india india is going through a transformation, digital india, and they have a necessity of broadband. if you look at the result of the 5g auction, all of the operators in india, the message is, it's going to be more cost-effective to do it with 5g, and will we see that achieve scale >> even a ph.d., honorary, is there anyone at your company smarter than you >> i think pretty form all of them. >> who are those people?

you understand almost everything you do, even with snapdragon, 5g, you know odds to do it, but are there people that come in and say, just handle it? >> absolutely. one of the things about qualcomm, and it's unique in our company culture. we're a company of engineers i think we've been one of the companies they have investing a fundamental resurgeon in technology we usually invest in things ten years before there's a market for it, and we're very fortunate we have a lot of smart people. >> it's almost all magic for me. when a movie comes into my phone, it's magic. it's magic you bring someone from 100 years ago in this world and they're going to say it's magic. >> it's going to get better. thank you very much. >> good seeing you. just capital ranks qualm com on the just 100.

that's up from 63 in 2021. qualcomm is number one in its industry on overall diversity, equity and inclusion issues. still to come, lazard's ceo peter orstzag.

welcome back, everybody. we want to get down to the new york stock exchange and check in with jim cramer. i've been waiting to talk with you all morning. we have not done nearly enough with the banks reporting today what happened with goldman sachs? >> remember, they have a big balance sheet. i don't think they're able to employ it as well. i think they didn't make enough money on card, on wealth

management it was a disappointing quarter i expected more from them. i expected them to make more money off the equity, tangible book, but i'll say this. they had a big quarter last year i don't think it's wrong that the stock be down big, because i think, as we hear more about it, we'll recognize that -- not that i have the transformation of the bank is not going well we can't sugar coat it. >> if you look at morgan stanley, i think that stock warm-up up by 1.3% or so >> they killed it in wealth management they just added $50 billion. they're a very clean company i know they don't care about trading quarter to quarter the journal has emphasized

trading is a wealth management company, and the wealth management is extraordinary, and counteracted anything like a decline. i thought it was a clean quarter. i think gordon is doing an amazing job. it's just not the same it's model it's very sticky, good business model. >> jim, thank you for breaking all this down for us i have so much more i want to talk about with you, but they're rushing us out >> keep doing what you're doing. it's terrific. >> yes, sir. by the way, coming up next on, lazard's peter orszag on what global financial leaders are sangeryi he about the debt battle brewing back in washington stay tuned we'll be right back. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone

from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create when you stay at a vrbo the host doesn't stay with you. because without privacy in your vacation home, it isn't really a vacation... ...is it? [birds chirping]

if your company actually practices the values that it posts about, then, yeah... you're on team earth.

box. we're live, a beautiful shot look at that gorgeous we're here in davos, switzerland to talk about the economy. janet yellen calling on congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible kevin mccarthy saying he would negotiate with the white house, but renewed calls for cuts in spending joining us to talk about -- a guy who knows something about budgets, peter orszag, lazard's ceo and financial adviser. also cbo director in the obama administration i want to talk to you about your banking job, too what do you think is going to happen here?

>> on the debt limit it will get addressed but it won't be addressed smoothie. option one is something extraordinary, reinterpreting laws and what have you option two is kevin mccarthy falls on his sword and there are, you know, a small number of republicans that join the democrats in a clean vote. that is going to be a mess and it's probably not helpful to be laying down now markers saying there have to be spending cuts alongside the debt limit increase because it will make it harder for the - >> do you believe the dates janet yellen has put out >> there's always uncertainty, but some time in july, august, september, we have a real problem. this is not going to get addressed in february or march, so it's just going to build and become a larger problem. second issue is we don't have a life preserver, so fiscal policy is stuck, monetary policy is kind of going in another direction. if there is a problem, you don't have the backstop you want >> if that's a prelude, what we

just saw, to the debt ceiling, this is going to be -- >> buckle your seat belt, yeah by the way, it shouldhave been done in the lame duck. there was a pathway to do that, and -- >> those guys are probably extremists, but how about the omnibus, the way it's done every year at the last minute. that's no way to do anything we had, what senator was that, chris coons, he said i'm for it, but i have no idea what was in it that was almost a direct quote i don't know if he meant to say it that way. but i'm fully for it, but i wasn't really aware of what it was doing. >> lots of things we could do better but the debt limit is a redundant -- there are lots of things we could do better, but this is a redundant piece of legislation and i don't think fixing those other problems should require - >> that's why those 20 guys are

out of their minds, because that's what they are say, what went on the last couple years. you raise an eyebrow at anything >> are we going back - >> two years the last two years >> going back to - >> are you going back to obama >> you know, grouping in with this whole previous two years. you're at lazard >> i'm going to save you let's talk about now in your role, always hand wringing here in davos what do you think is actually happening? >> i think the best reason for hope is all the hand wringing because the davos conventional wisdom is lmz inevitably wrong it seems a bit more downcast than usual >> the last time we were here, we were on top of the world. >> top of the world. >> january 2020. >> little did we know. >> the first covid case was arrived in washington state that day, and paul tudor jones said there's stuff called the coronavirus. wasn't even named yet.

it's unbelievable. >> that's your hope? that's what you're pinning it on >> no, more than that. i think the best hope is that the inflationary process seems to be going quite well we'll have an important report out at the end of the month, but it seems to be going quite well. if that were to continue, that is the best hope for the economy in 2023, because it would mean the fed could pivot sooner than it would have. >> you're in the business of advising corporations often on big m&a deals, but with this administration and given what we have heard from the doj and what we're seeing from the ftc, can deals take place >> well, i think 2023 is also going to be an interesting year from that perspective because the agencies are reinterpreting the law. the law hasn't changed and they have been losing, so there have been several cases where they lost. there are other big cases out there that are going to court that may get decided in 2023 >> are you thinking

microsoft/activision >> that might be one example >> if they keep losing, at some point you have to say, that's enough >> do you think they made a mistake taking this approach >> i personally think they made a mistake. i understand why they're doing it, but a record of 0 for x, 0 for 5, 0 for 6, 0 for 7 in court is not a great record. >> also, you had a big restructuring business for a long time. is that going to get hotter? >> that all comes back to the inflationary process because - >> are you staffing up the restructuring group at this point? >> we have a healthy restructuring group. >> i'm trying to figure out if that's supposed to be symbolic of what we should take away? >> you should take away some hope for 2023. we have a known risk in the debt limit and no life preserver. >> you're hoping for a pivot we're not supposed to say pivot because we're supposed to let the fed do what they're doing because they need credibility. don't you think the market is

kind of sniffing out a pivot and the fed keeps saying no, no, but why isn't the market where the fed is right now >> because the fed in my opinion is making a mistake. they're overdoing the tightening >> thank you >> they have the conviction of the converted. >> thank you wow, you're good now >> oh, my goodness gracious. >> i love you, man i love you, man. >> we have that on tape. >> we'll give bianna credit. >> peter, thank you for joining us, suffering through it we appreciate it now, look at this. >> all love. >> all love right here in davos. >> and this is just the beginning. another really big shoe, only like four people in the united states know who that is at this point. that was ed sullivan coming up tomorrow, from davos, among our special guests - >> this is a biggy >> david solomon we'll talk to him about the

earnings today a miss cisco chief, chuck robbins uber ceo dara. a final check on the markets, what did you have? you were eating when we came back >> a protein bar >> a protein bar and i think the viewers might have seen me eating it. >> they saw and heard and enjoyed it with you. >> bye, everybody. >> we'll be back tomorrow. good tuesday morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. we're live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. carl has the morning off we get started with trading. 30 minutes from now, first trading day of the week, of course, but it is a tuesday, don't forget you can see, we're looking for a slightly lower open. let's get to our road map. it starts with the banks which we also started with on friday this time, goldman posting