tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC January 18, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EST
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the outlook will be bright. >> you don't have a claim of any asset. >> keeping politics out of this portfolio is extremely important for the 2 million members that we serve. >> we're prepared for anything, but we want to get stronger no matter how inflation and the economy play out it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here's your top "five@5." wall street trying to get back into the win column after a mostly lower session yesterday investors trying to brush off recession-wary comments from the likes of brian moynihan and jane fraser now, back to the friendly skies, united out with the latest results and a bullish outlook for the start of the new year. first it was amazon and sale salesforce now another tech giant is preparing to cut costs and staff potentially as soon as today.
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plus, bitcoin holding onto gains. the digital asset is up more than 20% so far just this year it's only been 2 1/2 weeks why the calendar t new year, could signal some bullish bets in that beaten up crypto sector, and later on why twitter is auctioning off its bluebird sign it's january 18th, 2023, and you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪ good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan let's look at u.s. equity futures after yesterday saw the dow and s&p ending the day lower. the nasdaq hanging onto its win streak for the longest since 2021 futures are relatively calm but
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mixed. the dow is down by a modest 19 points at this stage, the s&p up by just 1 and nasdaq by 3. very, very slow. investors this morning trying to brush off new recession-wary comments from ceos, the latest coming from bank of america's brian mona haine and citibank's jane fraser and michael scott says 73% of ceos are predicting a global growth slowdown in this next year >> the consumer spending across our customer base has slowed, which means that's good news and bad news the consumers have money in their accounts they spend it down a little bit. my belief is a mild recession. >> i think everyone's converging around a mild recession scenario driven by the strength that we've got in the labor markets, and as a result, together with
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persistence in inflation for services, you will see a recipe for the fed. >> we're growing the economy with a mild recession. we think that gets us $10 to $12 a share, which is a pretty amazing place to be looking at where we were prepandemic and a weaker economy. we've got oil prices that are higher today wti group prices as you can see back above the $80 mark, up about a buck 27. 1.25% gain for ice brent crude, up about $1.04 to $86.96 china will account for roughly half of this year's grouchlkt
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bullishness around china now, around the world the bank of japan continuing to defy the hawkish tone of other global central bank policy makers out with its latest monetary policy decision jp is out in singapore with what happened with the boj and why the buying is so big jp. >> this was also a culmination of days in defining the odds bank of japan would have no choice but to widen or to at least move the tightening measure. that pushes the yield up about half a percent but today as we know, the bank of japan left the policy rates unchanged. in a statement, bank of japan's governor said there's so much
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uncertainty in the policy they have to keep it accommodated to support wage growth and to make sure they can meet their price targets. that had an effect on the 10-year yields we saw it scale back significantly. well below the policy that was set. it was strengthening leading up to the decision. weakening to just about 129.5 against the greenback. it's still trading around that handle as we speak and still looking soft as the day progresses however, we know what's weak for the yen is good for the nikkei 225, which did strengthen by 2.5% at wednesday's close. dom? >> jp, dollar strength, weakening yen. we'll see what happens in the coming days. let's get to some of the top corporate stories. silvana henao is here with
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those. >> treasury secretary janet yellen meeting this morning with china's advice premier liu he. she added beijing is ready for in-depth exchange with the u.s this is yelin's first in-person meeting with the vice premier. apple is reportedly postponing the release of its ai gl -- ar glasses. they're facing technical challenges forcing an indefinite delay. the lower cost mixed reality product should be ready before 2024 or 2025. and microsoft is planning to announce more layoffs as soon as today. this week's cuts build on an earlier round last year that affected less than 1% of the company's total, 2 u 00,000-person work force
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microsoft's work cuts adding to the pain in the tech sector following similar news to amazon and salesforce, dom. >> thank you very much for the headlines. let's get out to davos, switzerland, and the world economic forum where our own sara eisen is sitting down with a very, very special guest sara. >> good morning, dom chu i'm here with the ceo of pfizer. it's good to see you we have a lot to talk about. here we are three years later from when we first started talking about the coronavirus. people are still trying to figure out where we go with covid. where do you see as a path forward? >> it looks like it's here to stay, the virus. when you're infected, three months later, you can get infected again the virus will continue being with us, but it will move
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through a recession like flu the waves will be coming and we'll live with it. >> and we're going to get a booster every year. >> i think that's the most likely scenario. >> so china is going through a pretty acute wave right now. what is the status of getting paxlovid, your treatment, to the chinese citizens >> since december, we've sent millions of treatments over there. >> that's not enough. >> yeah, but they're evenly distributed. >> they are. and you're sending more. do you have a sense of how many people are being infected and using this treatment >> no, i do not. >> because that's sort of a question mark, an experiment there. >> yes. >> why are they buying paxlovid
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and not your vaccines? >> look, everyone has their own health care priorities and how they want to be able to control it they have their own vaccines they rely on chinese vaccines, and as far as i know, they didn't ask for western vaccines, but they did ask for treatments from the west. >> so there's no discussion right now with you and the chinese government about that. >> not with us. >> not currently at the moment what about the status of the booster in the u.s.? there's been an investigation into safety -- potential safety issues surrounding stroke for elderly people who have gotten the booster. what do you know about that? >> i think what the cdc said was they saw a signal and as a result they give a comprehensive view and they discovered nothing, so they say we seen a
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signal, we tested, we found nothing. the same with us we did our own investigation and we found none of them. >> are you looking into safety issues people are wondering if it makes them more vulnerable you've seen some conspiracies and some -- >> conspiracy or not, they are collaborating with major scientists and they're working with them and ourselves. it's not a signal, although, we have distributed billions of doses. >> when it comes to boosters every year, how do you know which strain you're targeting? >> you know, every time a strain comes up, we treat it like it would be a suspicious strain and we start working on it to see if
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we'll overcome protection of the vaccine. once we discover there is a possibility, immediately we develop a kind of vaccine just in case the authorities will ask us to do it. it is not our job other than discussing with the authorities, but eventually the authorities will look at the data and say, we want you to make a vaccine and then we will make it and in order to avoid losing time, we start always for every single virus to prevent doing that. >> currently are you working on the next >> currently we know there's one that's worse it started in new york and it's spleing in the u.s b.1.5. >> what about pricing? what is it going to cost in 2023 >> as you know, vaccines are
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completely free. >> for now but in the u.s.? >> all americans will receive it be zero co-pay because -- >> what about charging the government there were charges that it is $100 per dose. >> it's a list price >> i wanted to ask you about are rsv vaccine. there was news from the journal, they released their day tarks very strong efficacy data. is it apples to apples with the data you have received around your candidate >> i saw the amounts we need to have options for all of these diseases. you can make deep comparisons between clinical trials, not directly, but they look at the efficacies on the same way i haven't seen the safety profile yet in detail. i'm sure they will produce all
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this data pretty soon. >> what is the time line for getting it >> i don't know about them. >> for you. >> for us, we submit it. so we're going to get it -- whenever the fda will provide approval they have priority because of the strong data and the disease doesn't have any vaccine right now. >> what about young children, babies who are especially vulnerable for rsv >> we have the first turnover. we're vaccinating the mother, and the mother is passing antibodies to the fetus, so when the baby's born, it's born with antibodies, and it's protected for six months of its life. >> is it going to be like covid where yours and moderna's vaccines will get approved >> i'm sure if moderna's -- i'm not sure, but i expect we'll be approved i expect if moderna's data is
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the same, they'll be approved. >> what's the next thing in your pipeline >> the next few months, 19 products i don't think any company has been able to launch 19 products. we have many vaccines and then after the next 18 months, '24, '25, we have covid, flu, all of that that's going to work, and, of course, we have lyme disease. very big deal. >> very big deal, especially in the northeast. >> oh, yes. >> do you think wall street appreciates your story there have been a few downgrades, questions about covid and where to unlock value next with this company. >> yes i think here what we told the
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people, how the covid situation will look like in this year, the transition will be here. transition means we'll move from governmental business to commercial business. when this happens, there are two things that need to occur. one is the stocks need to be observed and so a lot of things that have been sold in 2022 will be used in 2023. the utilization of the vaccine in 2023 will be the same like in 2022 and the same in 2024. >> which is what percent in the u.s. >> i would say in the u.s., something like boosters, doses we expectation it will be more of the same. >> what about all the cash flow from the vaccines and covid business >> we're increasing. as you know when i took over research was $7 billion.
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this year will be in excess of 12 -- in '22, i mean. >> what about deals? >> again, we're focused on buying science and projects. we want to work on sickle cell disease, and we'll continue doing that you should see more in 2023. >> tech valuations have come down quite significantly. >> it's come down. we're looking for the good things so for us, of course, we don't want to overpay, but the most important thing, it is to be certain that the data are solid and that this will be a break th breakthrough, medical solution once you have, that you cannot go wrong. >> albert, thank you so much for the time no shortage of news to discuss with you
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albert bourla, ceo of pfizer dominic chu, back to you. >> thank you very much when we come back on the show, wall street's fear gauge is flashing a warning that stocks might be heading off a cliff soon what potomac's mark al varone has to say about that. why a new year could mean new bullish bets in cryptocurrency crypto is up, by the way, 26% this far it could go even higher. later on, more esg pushback from the state attorney's general. we've got the latest tgearts ahead. a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break. >> announcer: davos 223 is sponsored by acen tur. let there be change. ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪
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exchange." futures were mixed, modestly higher the dow's implied higher by a whopping two to three points the market is having a solid run in 2023, but could that run be coming to an end a number of strategists telling clients in recent notes that the vix falling to its lowest level in months could be a warning signal that the latest stockmarket rally could be
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winding down specifically many say they're worried the low level of vix suggests investors may have become come play cent about the risk to their portfolios, raising the possibility they could be caught off guard in a way that could create a real pullback let's brink 's bring in mark av. >> it almost feels like there's a rush to get ahead of the fed, and that's what i think those comments are alluding to, and that's what i agree with i think people need to realize that the fed has not taken their foot off the 2% target you don't want to fight the fed. you don't want to be overconfident about stocks that is a potential risk for
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investors. >> this volatility index, the vix, kind of tracks the volatility for the s&p 500 it closed yesterday below 20 it's 19 and change at this point. what that does represent is near the lowest levels over the course of the past year. does that in any way make you feel uncomfortable about what's happening in the market right now in. >> well, it's interesting because in a bear market when the vix gets close to 20, it's actually been a sell signal. if you look at last year's charts, whenever we had confidence or complacency and the vix lowering into this 20 range, it was a really good time to sell and take some of those interim profits from the bear market bounces it's difficult to say this is the bottom and the vix is right, but i don't think that's the case right now i think we have a few more shakeouts to go. until we get clarity, until we get a real drop in inflation,
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we're a mile away from that 2% number, and until we get language out of the fed that isn't hawkish, they've all been hawkish, i think the vix is a contra contraindicater, and that's how i would look at it. >> if that's the case, take us through your thinking with regard to the outlook. is this a time now where you raise money, you raise cash, you sit still? how is the bond market looking we've got interest rates that are maybe relatively attractive to what they have been historically over the last ten years. what exactly is the strategy from your standpoint >> well, if your baseline is a continued fed tightening and a modest recession, if any, which is our baseline, we still want to invest in stocks and we still want to invest in quality stocks, not that speculation stuff that we saw last year blow up i know there's been a little run at it. but that's not where i'd want to be the bond side as you mentioned is very interesting. you can get some reasonably
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high-quality corporates. you can get the higher end of high yield bonds, bbb, single a bonds. you can get nice returns on that, maybe increasing later in the year and have bonds in your portfolio that actually serve the role of diversification. if you want a mid- to higher-level return, bonds are again a conversation that investors could have we believe in broader diversification, and we think the 60/40 portfolio is extremel pronounced, and we would encourage investors to look at some place in the bond market. >> mark avallone looking at the bond markets thank you very much. still on deck on the show, your big money moves and why shares of smile direct club are
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a share. the company has good insight for the rest of the year >> mostly it's a strong demand environment. we have really good insight, particularly for this quarter, what's going to happen we have good insight for the second quarter and beyond, and what we can see is really strong demand especially in the second half of the month. the first half of the quarter is not quite as strong. that's mostly because of the new travel patterns that come from hybrid work. >> those united shares up by about 3% stock number two is moderna. its rsv vaccine is 84% effective in preventing respiratory disease in those 64 and older. they use the same mrna vaccines
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for its shots. >> and smile direct club, the shares are rallying after the company says it plans to cut costs following a weaker than expected sales forecast. they have not said whether it will include layoffs of its over 3,000 employees, but the shares are up. still ahead on the show, fairlead's katie stockton is here why she's sticking with her e arish bet of u.s. stocks in thne term. stay right here. we'll be right back. back then we could barely afford a hostel. i'm glad we invested for the long term with vanguard. and now, we're back here again... no jobs, no kids, just us. and our advisor is preparing us for what lies ahead. only at vanguard, you're more than just an investor you're an owner. giving you confidence throughout today's longer retirement.
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stocks looking to get back on track the dow and s&p snapping their four-day winning streak as investors get ready for another round of earnings. crypto finding fresh legs in the new year crypto trading back at the 21,000 level and whether the bull run is taking shape. new details emerging as the failed crypto exchange throws cold water on hopes of customers being made whole it's wednesday, january 18th you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪ welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan this morning.
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let's get right to how the day is shaping up. futures are relatively calm, although, they've drifted now into slightly negative territory, the dow implied lower by just about 16 points, the s&p just about unchanged and the s&p by roughly 6 again, marginal losses and gains over the course of the past, seay, half hour. bond yields are focused given what's happening with japanese bonds and the action in japan. treasury note yields just about 3.49%. the 2-year, 4.1%, and the 5 5-year, 3.5% there a bit of a move for oil prices on china reopening, fuel demand forecasts, that sort of thing. u.s. benchmark, wti crude prices up to $81.57
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that's a 1.75% gain. ice brent crude, $87.09, up a buck 17 or roughly a 1.5% gain let's get a check on some of this morning's top stories >> reporter: the attorney generals for 21 states are questioning a pair of proxy advisers on their suggestions. the ags are looking to fooj out whether the voting recommendations by institutional shareholder services and glass lewis on such issues as climate violated duties to their clients. the two companies are the latest to receive pressure from republican state officials or sustainable investing initiatives. ftx is apparently sustaining a substantial shortfall. new customers have reveal ed
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more the newly disclosed balances contrast with statements by ftx founder sam bankman-fried that u.s. customers could be made whole. the crypto firm is making to make a move with cash. it includes genesis global capital, which is trying to avoid bankruptcy, dom. >> all right, silvana henao, thanks very much for those headlines. bitcoin and ethereum are off to a nice start in 2023 to say the least with both posting gains of roughly 30% they're outperforming just about all traditional assets, the s&p 500, the nasdaq 100, gold, bonds, and the dollar as well by a pretty wide margin so could this short-term bounce turn into a longer term bull run
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for crypto let's bring in the director of research at a crypto data provider you see the data and transactions and flows that are taking shape what exactly is behind the bit down and either surge to start 2023 >> that's a great question selling pressure has been extremely strong ever since the ftx collapsed. it's cast a long shadow over the industry and specifically crypto prices i think crypto has been very closely linked to what's going on at the macrolevel we got that last week in the inflation data. >> so the inflation data is one
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thing, claire. for cryptocurrency, as you mentioned, seller exhaustion, it was months that crypto was floating between 15,000 and 17,000 we'll just say 16,000 roughly. it couldn't get out of that range. what exactly triggered this? was there any kind of a fundamental reason why buyers are out there again and sellers are in your words exhausted? >> yeah. i mean, over the past year what we saw when looking at the data is on the upswing, we saw volatility we saw that last week because, frankly, when we're looking at industry news, it has not been positive throughout the start of 223. there are many, many ongoing bankruptcies which could put downward pressure on the prices.
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we have to attribute the latest rally to what's happening at the macro level. >> the macro level is one thing, but there's this school of thought or theory that many of these people who were long on cryptocurrencies, sold them for last year, took the losses, and have now kind of reset, if you will, some of their return objectives is that something you might think could play out, or is that just something that crypto bulls are trying to latch onto to explain any kind of crypto bullishness out there? >> yeah, that's certainly a possibility. i think one other thing i forgot to mention is what's going on in derivatives markets. a lot of traders were positioning toward the short side some of when there was a quick rally last week that could have liquidated them could in turn push up prices further. it's a bit of a combination of what's happening on the vol tyer
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derivatives market and when there's a small uptick in activity that can have a ca cascading effect i think it's one possibility, but we have to look directly at what's happening in these derivative markets. >> clara medalie of kaiko. we'll speak with katie stockton coming up. coming up on the show, gaping the strength of the consumer what to watch for with retail sales figures for the critical holiday shopping season. but first as we head out to break, some of your top trending stories. netflix is looking to hire a flight attendant for one of its prooivt jets and offering a salary of $385,000 responsibilities will include maintaining the stock room and other duties that's a good job perhaps. meryl streep is joining
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season three of the streaming series "only murders in the building." >> hey, guys, we're on set what are we shooting >> hi, there. >> season three. >> hello. >> yay >> could this be any better? >> oh, wait. >> i do think i it could get a little bit better. >> what do you mean? >> no, please, thank you thank you, ma'am. >> coffee. >> just the tea i asked for a half hour ago. >> you're sweet. >> cameos galore in that. by the way, twitter is offering off express o'machines and kegerators from its san francisco headquarters facility as ceo elon musk looks to drastically cut costs. the iconic blue bird is
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at adp, we use data-driven insights to design hr solutions to provide flexible pay options and greater workforce visibility today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪ . welcome back to "worldwide exchange." investors are gearing up for the latest look at the consumer and inflation. retail sales figures are due out this morning, that figure dipping just over half a percent back in november, marking the biggest monthly decline in 2022
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due to a pullback in holiday shop, home projects, and auto purchases as well. now, key retail leaders including the ceos of lowe's, kroger, and others, they looked ahead where the outlook on the year ahead was mixed let's bring in katy thomas who's the lead we turn to you often for all things consumer. can you take us through what exactly the feel was thematically with regard to what the holiday season will end up looking like andwhat it actually says about the strength of the u.s. consumer >> yeah, absolutely, dom thanks for having me you're right things were certainly mixed. there's a lot of talk about the return of the physical store, the importance of the physical store across different sectors, across different types of
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retailers. they did weigh in saying they're trying to stay true to the brand. given an increase in sales shopping, we weren't given warnings there were her discounts throughout the month as we go through 2023, we really are seeing consumers evaluate where to spend and where to save. >> what are they spending on and what are they saving for we heard a lot of ceos go through their customers and accounts data and saying they're spending less on things like goods, more on services. is travel going to be a thing? are physical things going to sell more apparel or more durable goods? what exactly is developing in 2023 >> consumers, where they're feeling the brunt of inflation is day to day.
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we continue to hear about gas and groceries in particular. you're hearing about the price of eggs and things like. that one sector to keep an eye on is restaurants. that's where consumers say they're feeling the brunt and the increases, but they're still wanting to gout to restaurants we're still in that post-covid moment, wanting to go out and do things they want to make sure they spend the best bang for their buck apparel is doing well. we're seeing beauty do well. it's an affordable luxury even in traditional recessionary times. people feel like they can enjoy it they're having fun with makeup again. the electronics sector continues to struggle. they really stocked up on that during the pandemic. it may not feel like something they need right now. >> just really quickly, what's the biggest thing you'll be looking for in 2023 with regard
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to retail spending in. >> this is another area where i'd say i'll still pretty bullish. i don't like trade-off or trade down consumers are very thoughtful. they have a lot of information at their fingertips, and i think the consumer is in the driver's seat right now in particular, i think my watch-out, some of the brands is in what we call mushy middle the brands that aren't brands but value brands they're struggling to figure out their reason for being or who they are or how they want to engage with consumers. it's sort of those in tweens that are going to be most indicative of the strength of the consumer. >> katy thomas with kearney, thank you. >> tnk y. haou coming back we'll have katie stockton and why she's so bearish on the markets keep it right here we'll be right back after this
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welcome back six stories you may have missed to wrap up this hour microsoft cutting less than 1% of its 200,000-person work force back in july. treasury secretary janet yellen meeting with china's advice premier. they're ready to meet on several macroeconomic issues united airlines expects to top earnings it will earn between 10 and 12 bucks per share well above wall street's predicted $6 and change shares are higher ahead of the opening bell. apple delays the release of its ar glasses in favor of a
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cheaper vr headset there are changes and delays are indefinite smile direct club plans to cut costs after its chainnges. and carvana adopts a poison pill the used car retailer also says it's reached an agreement to sell up to $4 billion worth of auto related loans. investors this morning are trying to brush off new rece recession-wary comments. the latest, brian moynihan and scott kirby says that 73% of ceos are predicting a global growth slowdown in the coming year. >> the consumer spending across our customer base has slowed, which means that's good news and bad news consumers have money in their accounts they spend it down a bit
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my belief is a mild recession. >> i think everyone is converging around a more mild recession e.r.a. scenario driven by the strength we've got in the labor markets, and as a result together with persistence and reflation, you'll see a better resolute fed. >> we're growing into our economy a mild recession and mild numbers, and we think that gets us to 10 to $12 a share, which is a pretty amazing place to be compared to back where we were prepandemic. >> not the most optimistic of tones. joining me now is katie stockton who's also a cnbc contributor. you heard the comments i would dare to say a mild recession is the base case and pretty much consensus among c-suite america. that almost to me sounds bull, so why are people still so negative >> the market is lucky
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we've never seen the market bottom before ta recession. i think there's hope ta the relief rally we've already seen is the start of something more significant and, indeerkd it could be one step toward a bottoming process. then knowing that bear market cycles don't tend to end in sort of a v-bottom fashion, we usually need to see more prolonged support discovery and we haven't seen that yet we have a situation where sentiment is somewhat come play cent you can see that in the fix. we also have overbought readings after what we've seen in the market so the market is certainly charged here >> you look at the charts and how things might shape up in the future is there any indication in your
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mind how deep a pullback could go, areas of support, so to speak, that you're looking for >> the s&p 500 is right up into resistance on the chart. this is a potential area selling pressure you can see the 200-day moving average has acted as resistance in this past bear market we basically have it at roughly 4,000. there's also another model we tracked, the cloud model that's roughly in mind as well. there's resistance in mind beyond that, it's hardly in the clear. below current levels there are support levels that have relevance. the first is 3800 in our opinion. it's a short term, somewhat minor level. if it is taken out we look to the lows which happen to market about a 50% retracement of the uptrend that began off the covid low. these roughly 3500 we're looking in our work for a
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retest of the level an a potential downdraft to a secondary major support level based upon a retracement it's still to the long siemd it's rare to see it do what it has done, citing it as something that's bullish we're actually more contrarian in terms of market breadth there's an indicator called the mcclellan oscillator it's quite overbought. it's at levels that have been associated with short term leaks with a lead time of leaks for the s&p 500. >> you're seeing a pullback in the broader stockmarket. i wonder,er er earlier in thw we talked about changes. any opinion your mind it could continue >> we saw a 14-day rally in
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tet terms of the rally it certainly has our attention, and we do have upside momentum, short and intermediate term. but even just with the las day and a half oar so, we see that as a reaction to short-term conditions that we think you can look at risk assets more broadly. we want to see how far bitcoin and others were traced you may see a retracement of this 14-day up move. it will look like a blip on the chart. we say that as because it's to the downside it feels like it's a bit speculative. vix shows some complacency in the markets. we have meme stocks getting some interest all of that taken together gives us some pause and chasing
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rallies. >> katie stockton, thank you very much. also great to get your thoughts. that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange. futures right now are marginally mixed. right now the dow is up by 17 points, s&p by go and nasdaq by 19 "squawk box" is up next. we pick up in davos. we will see you tomorrow and our financial planning tools can help you reach them. that's the value of ownership. just look around. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class
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we'll break down what this could mean for the fed. and moderna chairs jump on good news in the fight against rsv. it's wednesday, january 18th, and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live once again from the world economic forum in davos, switzerland. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we have another all-star lineup coming at you today. we have cisco's chairman and ceo chuck robbins. we'll talk about a lot of things in cyber space and goldman sachs chairman and
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