one thing that's helped the market in the last few months is bond volatility has really come down as soon as the market got clarity, what it thinks is clarity on where rates will settle >> the first faang earnings report tomorrow, netflix >> we'll see how it goes >> i'll see you then that does it for us. "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast" fade on the street stocks slide into the close. the s&p with its worst day in more than a month. a new worry front and center from washington. a debt ceiling fight that potentially could end badly. plus, netflix also on the clock set to report tomorrow after the bell the stock has been on a tear up 35%. has it reached a breaking point, or is it ready to take the streaming crown? later, are the airlines about to hit turbulence? options action on that sector straight ahead i'm melissa lee. we're live at the nasdaq market

set. we start off with a major loss of momentum on the street. markets closing near theirlows of the day, but the nasdaq breaking its longest win streak in over a year the dow leading losses dropping 1.8% every single member of that index down today it is now less than half a percent from going negative for the year so does today's action suggest the rally we saw at the start of the year has run out of steam particularly as we approach earnings season? tim, what do you say >> we talk macro on the show a lot and probably viewers are tired of it. the data this morning was awful. the industrial production numbers were terrible. retail sales numbers were terrible and ppi, while they show we're down to 6.3 versus 7.2, there are elements of the ppi that indicate there will be some stickiness to the parts of the service and the labor piece. so we've had a great run we've had a great run since december 28th. we talked about this, whether it's the most cyclical or bombed

out or highest multiple parts of the economy. the bad news is bad news today the only good thing out there for people that are wishing on the largest market cap stocks in the market, the faang, the top five or six stocks, is that the ten year got down to 3.28 today. people looking at the slower growth dynamic as a place to buy defensive stocks, i think that's -- and i think we've outlined that as being a mistake to believe that safety net but, again, to me it was a day -- it wasn't so much the market ran out of gas you were reminded front and center that big, big important data pieces of our economy are slowing aggressively. >> we are reminded about where the fed is headed or where the fed wants us to believe it is headed james bullard reiterating once again that rate could go as high as 5.5%. i was chatting with steve liesman on "the exchange," and we were noting how there's a huge discrepancy between what the market is pricing in and what, if you take bullard's word, the fed is pricing in.

that could be as much as 78 basis points of difference in terms of where we see that terminal rate. that's huge. >> but market participants are conditions to know when we have this sort of weakening what does the fed do and they pivot, right? that's really the thing. we've been debating, last night on the desk, we talked about this, hard landing, soft landing. rosenberg research tweeted this out. sorry, folks, no soft landing. on track for three straight quarters in real retail sales alongside two successive negative production numbers only happens in recession the point is if the consensus is and why we've been rallying the last, let's call it, two weeks, a soft landing, we can handle that we can handle higher rates the dollar is coming in. inflationary pressures are coming in. that's all good. some of this data might be accelerating to the down side and i think that's the reaction of the mark as we go into earnings season because i think when you see the sort of acceleration and jobs cuts by big companies they're trying to tell you we need to signal we're going to get costs under control

because rate environment, everything else, the head winds to growth the sorts of things we have to start on operating in a recessionary environment i think you want to take this stuff seriously and earnings are really going to be front and center obviously the next three weeks at a time we're also going to get a lot of fed february 1 meeting and the meeting in mid-march. >> so there's this dash for trash, anything that was high multiple, had a terrible last year, doing really well the beginning of this year i mean, it's a big move but we're only back to where we were a week ago or so i actually prefer for the market to be down going into earnings rather than up just because the bar is lower if you're right and we are headed into a recession and that's what if you go out the curve, that's what it's telling you. i think the market has some ways to come down but i always come to the point it's not a monolithic one stock.

some things i think will do fine and some things i think are not and some might do okay but have run so much already, netflix might be one of them >> closer to 4,000 on the s&p 500 during earnings season less room for things to go wrong, guy, than where we are now 39, 25 or so >> tim hit the nail on the head. bad news today at least was bad news the knee-jerk reaction to the numbers this morning, the market was higher, as i know you know, the board comments threw cold water on things. they're trying to condition the market that, hey, we're serious about what we're saying. to karen's point we're still about 100 or so s&p points higher than where we started the year now you see the effects of the federal reserve's raising rates. things are starting to slow precipitously. in this environment, again my opinion, lower en-year yields

are not bullish. i think you can see a scenario where ten year continues to go lower from here where the two year can remain sticky around 4% if you have a 1% inversion, which is not out of the realm of possibility, what do things look like there that, to me, has to be one of the concerns >> in terms of guidance, it's going to be all about the guidance, but a lot of things -- to all these points about the dollar coming off. we're down 10% of the peak in september. rates have come down a lot of things that had been head winds are now tail winds. in terms of guidance, will we get that guidance we thought would jump-start that reset of the bar of earnings estimates? >> reset lower >> yes, lower. >> although the dollar is not a headwind, it's maybe a tailwind, they're not going to talk about that in the same way we didn't hear a lot about it on the way up for the dollar i just think gross margins peeked in the crisis you had the best of all worlds and you had a consumer, also, that had built up a lot of

firepower, and we're slowly seeing normalization in the consumer balance sheet and guys talked about consumer credit, the savings rates. i do think we'll see the bar set lower and i think the reality is the bar is lower and the reality of the numbers we got today and, again, the s&p at 4,000 this morning, until 10:30 when the numbers came out on industrial production and retail sales, the numbers we got show the consumer retrenched even the last couple months of the year when we talk about backwards looking data and it's not worth anything, this is where the backwards looking data is telling you something that i think is important it wasn't even seen in the fourth quarter i think that's what stocks had to price in immediately. i don't think the bar -- i nip the bar is not going to try to find some silver linings i think they will reset it >> the clearly weaker numbers was this bad news is good news, that the fed is closer, and then the realization when bullard came out the fed may not be close no matter what the data

says >> yes that's what it seemed to me. they are reinforcing the higher for longer, that we don't want to hear. we thought maybe it wouldn't be that way he is saying, yes, it is >> i thought interesting price action talking about all the banks that reported on friday morning, and jpmorgan, which had closed on thursday at 140, opened down at 135 after those results. by noon that day was trading at 143. i was like, that was pretty powerful six month highs. it's given that back almost, threatening the lows from the other day. to me, that's really indicative of what people wanted to happen, the things they wanted to see out of these reports and marrying that with the macro i would keep a close eye on jpmorgan and see if we can take out the lows from friday morning. that might signal any enthusiasm you had about near term headwinds, we have to overlook those and start positioning a portfolio for later on this year i think jpmorgan could be the

leader we often say banks that report first set the tone for the whole earnings season. keep an eye on jpmorgan. >> for more on today's late-day sell-off, dan suzuki at richard bernstein advisers >> great to see you. >> in terms of we were just talking about what the markets believe in terms of not believing the fed, not believing the higher for longer. who is going to win? it feels like fed officials want to come out and say this is happening this is happening, and the market is not pricing that in >> yeah, i think it's been a confusing period for markets at times this massive cyclical rally, spreads have come in. off to the races we'll have the soft landing probably at about the same time. i don't know what the market is really trying to price in. i think at the end of the day -- i think if today was really a bad news is a bad news market,

that's really healthy. i don't know if that's the case. the initial reaction was positive and there was fed speak. if bad news is bad news, that's the right thing. the reality is when markets are rallying off of bad news, that's a myopic view of the focus on the fed, but the fed is a lagging indicator reacting to lagging indicators the reality is, i can tell you what will happen with the fed inflation growth and earnings rates based on growth. growth will be the thing that drives everything this year. that's very different than last year when it was the inflation and when it was the fed, i think growth is heading lower. i think that will not be perceived positive for markets at the end of the day, bad news is bad news. >> you've been consistent with a lot of this view i look at your notes and see tech could be down another 50%, 5-0, not 15. that's extraordinary there's the internet, there's certainly cloud, software, data.

try to define that a little bit more >> i think broadly tech -- let's call it nasdaq or anything having to do with tech, if you look at the sectors, the three sectors that have heavy exposure are communication services, information technology and consumer discretionary those three sectors are heavy risk we've only come down half of the market cap to, like, 43% there's definitely a lot more room if you think about it bubbles, which i think it was a bubble, takes time for people to give up -- >> so you're talking about the structure of the market? you're saying it was 50%, has come down only to 43%, and that's just not the right number >> i think there's further down side because people haven't given up if you look at the biggest holdings in portfolios, that's where they are look just in the sheer number of products and etfs out there, that's where they are. i think it takes time for that

mentality to change. if you go back to the tech bubble, you had 16 different bear market rallies over the two and a half year period we've had three double-digit rallies in the nasdaq over this time i think, again, there are going to be rallies, but i would -- i think ultimately there's a lot more pain because bubbles don't deflate overnight. >> a lot of people make a lot about fund flows and where institutional investors are and cash levels are still very high. one argument, there's a lot of dry powder that dry powder, though, can go many different places, not into u.s. equities. what do you think happens to that dry powder, and why might the bull case, the traditional bull case that money will go back into u.s. equities, why can that be wrong this time around >> if you actually go look at cash levels in cycles, you actually see cash levels consistently pick up into and grow into the entire bear market i don't think there's anything surprising about high cash

levels and i think, where could it go, well, flows follow performance that's why i don't tend to look at flows week to week or month to month and if you want to look at flows, what was the highest -- or the sector with the highest flows last year? technology that should be a worry in and of itself you're going to see flows follow markets. you'll see big outflows after markets have fallen. in flows because of a rally. i think ultimately it's going to take years for the performance to prove where the flows ultimately go. i think the leadership will look -- be almost a mirror image of what we saw the last 12 years and so once you start to see that two years later, three years later, then you'll start to see the big flows into those areas. >> dan, thanks for coming by turning to the other big story we're watching, countdown is on for congress to come to an agreement on the debt ceiling. the uz .s. about to hit its

borrowing limit tomorrow elon moye on what it could mean for the markets. ylan >> reporter: the treasury department is expected to begin deploying extraordinary measures tomorrow in order to keep paying the nation's bills, and that will kick off the debt limit fight here in washington now those measures include suspending reinvestment in the thrift spending plan and pausing new investments in the civil service, retirement and disability fund and health benefits fund for retired postal workers. that will save us enough time until at least early june, but this is all happening a little earlier than washington had anticipated and one of the reasons for that is higher than expected interest rates. last spring the cbo projected the cost of paying down our debt would be about $400 billion in fiscal 2022. the reality was the total was $475 billion, more than we spent on veterans' benefits,

transportation, or even higher education. republicans say this is exactly why we need to pump the brakes on spending. house speaker kevin mccarthy ruled out an increase and called for a compromise on a balanced budget democrats counter it should not be a political bargaining chip melissa, we're going to hear a lot of this rhetoric the next few months because this is unlikely to get resolved until lawmakers on both sides of the aisle feel they've exhausted all options. back over to you >> it is a political bargaining chip, though from market participant standpoint it has been something that is assumed will work itself out. nobody wants to drive the u.s. to default no party wants to own that at all. so something will be done. why, in your view, do politics actually, you know, play out this time so it may actually get to that point? >> reporter: i think the real risk is not that someone will

ride the default train into oblivion but the risk of an accidental default the political maneuvering to get us out of the brinksmanship we've seen in the past could take some time the measures whether it's a discharge position, a procedure that would kick back over to the president to raise the debt limit, all of those things take time to work out the one thing you don't have is time it was downgraded before we even defaulted. the u.s. didn't default but even the specter was enough to rattle markets and rattle investors that's the risk you're seeing here and now any one member who is unhappy with kevin mccarthy's decision in the house can force a vote to oust him as speaker.

that creates another level of political uncertainty where you could end up with who you don't know >> thank you guy, it does seem different this time around. more fraught with danger >> i agree with that i don't think the market is taking it seriously enough this is not a politics show but, unfortunately, we have to sort of dive in from time to time i think there's probably a fringe group out there that have a lout enough voice and strong enough position they're going to push the envelope on this. i don't think the market is comprehending that i think we'll navigate our way through it unfortunately, with the vix at 20 and a market that's rallied pretty significantly the last couple of weeks, i don't think any of it is necessarily priced in, one of the things we talk about tail risk, this is a

pretty significant one >> goldman sachs talking about the debt ceiling and hitting the limit, says remember the 2011 debt ceiling crisis. >> i remember where i was. >> the s&p 500 lost 15% in that period that's why we're talking about something that is perceived as political because it does have an impact on the markets >> it's funny if the u.s. government were a company, they have this giant balance sheet, these debts coming due don't worry, they're not going to pay the pensions. don't worry. >> sounds like gm in the '80s. >> that equity would be trading down a lot i wonder, though, in a time of great volatility in the markets, is the u.s. treasury, i would assume, still going to be the sort of, you know, the highest quality, the flight to quality, the irony of it being sort of the cause of i don't know what's going to happen. i don't know what else is going on when was the greek debt crisis >> that was 2011-2012.

the aaa downgrade preceded the european sovereign bond disaster, something we've been trying to unwind the last six months and one of the reasons why if you look at some of the banks in europe. they've actually rallied on the back of this it was a decade ago where sa flinch and the credit rating agencies stepped in and i was managing a hedge fund at the time and those were crazy days >> the debt was downgraded on a friday afternoon after 5:00 p.m. >> were they hoping no one would notice >> the fact that yields are where they are gives them some latitude because back then it

was qe after qe. they couldn't take their foot off the pedal. >> that's why we had deflation >> maybe they have a little room to do stuff and why yields are where they are signs of renewed life in the housing market could today's headlines give a boost to the builders? wall street closing the book on shares of chegg today when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. the data pushing housing stocks higher earlier in the day. the sector ended the session well off the highs are we seeing a turning point for this space diana olick joins us >> reporter: we got the first gain in 12 straight months the nahb survey for january rose four points to 35, still in negative territory, but it's a start. of course sentiment was at 83 a year ago still, builders pointed to lower mortgage rates for the optimism. rates actually dropped again

sharply today down to 6.04%. that's down from 7.37% at the end of october and that sparked mortgage demand as well. mortgage applications last week jumped 28% from the previous week some of that is coming off the holiday lull, but more of that is, of course, the lower rates as both demand for refy and home purchases rose this could mark the bottom of this housing recession and the mortgage bankers' suggested rates would go even lower. home prices are still very high and there is precious little available for sale melissa? >> diana, when they say the bottom of the housing recession, what does that mean? i would have thought the supply/demand dynamic is such that things are still good and will continue to be good and the bottom is still far off. >> reporter: that's the builder, so they're talking about construction, housing starts, building permits, et cetera. we get the building numbers

tomorrow that will be backward looking, but they're trying to stay starts and permits will start to rise from here >> diana, thank you. diana olick. is this good news? >> you can get excited for a couple days. the excitement has been rates going lower. home builders are at six-month highs. the chart guys can point to where this was almost to a t there's nothing here that is good for housing, and talk about a consumer i think is going to be under more pressure than they have been, talk building costs, copper prices. i think the costs related to housing will not get better. no, i would not be chasing this news i wouldn't chase lower rates into housing >> i guess the chase, we knew people who locked in 30-year fixed at below 30%, a year and range ago, so the idea we have 7.5% not too long ago, you have that sort of decline in a short period of time and the data we've seen about mortgage application it makes sense here.

i just don't think that will be a trend and sooner or later the supply and demand dynamics people were saying was a massive tail wind, i just don't see it here again, i don't think there's anything to chase. ultimately you're going tosee yields come down much lower but much longer from now >> a share at discover financial dropping after reporting earnings the credit card company beating expectations on the top and bottom lines but did increase its provision for credit losses potentially signaling it sees weakness in the consumer aheadshares down 6% right now. the type of consumer who has a discover card, karen, is different. >> a little different, lower down on the fico score chain but it's not good for anyone, right. if they are increasing their provisions, i think their charge-offs. the interest margin was good it's not about that anymore. it's about the consumer.

i would think capital one, who else has credit card exposure? big banks. probably not great for a bank of america. i like bank of america a lot i think that if this is just a small blip up, that's fine because credit hasn't been this good in i don't know how long. we knew it would turn at some point. the question is, is this an acceleration that this sort of snowballs? >> right, right. provisions were given. increasing provisions were given. the degree of increase that may be a concern, guy. >> it has to be a concern, right? at some point the shoe is going to drop. we've been trying to point out how levered the debt associated with the consumer north of $5 trillion it's just a matter of time in this environment so dfs is first. where can the stock go look at $88 where we broke down from right before obviously covid hit in earnest the next question is, okay, does

american express do this do we see some of the othe banks? there's never just one cockroach, unfortunately, and i think this is the beginning of something a little bit bigger. >> capital one is down 2.5% or so netflix earnings on deck should you just chill? but first chegg gets crushed investors are checking out in a big way. you're watching "fast money" live from times square dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones

welcome back to "fast money am" buzz kill on chegg shares of the education tech

company plummeting 16% needham down grading to hold could limit near term upside with the stock down 82% from its all-time high in 2021. are the best days behind this pandemic high flyer? >> one of the things i thought interesting was chatgpt. this machine learning, this language machine learning, this offering from open ai. that they see this as a headwind to a company that is in the ed tech tools business is interesting. i think we'll hear more and more and some different models. it's a $3 billion market cap but it was one of those companies that saw a massive pull forward from the school at home during the pandemic and we saw a huge reset. it did show relative strength for the back half of last year and i think it's interesting a

headline like this, a down grade from needham coupled with this thesis could take 15% out of a stock straight line. >> do you think this is the peloton of education >> yes, it was yes. >> right >> yeah, yeah. >> are we going to go back to the days all these kids are sitting at home in front of their computers? >> probably not, knock on wood >> the pull forward is something we saw in the stock price now trading down 80% from where it was, and it is a profitable company, a company that makes money where the p/e matters because they have a core business there are companies out of the pandemic that just don't make money. something like peloton -- we're now into apples and oranges -- they tried to grow too fast. we were sold on a subscription service when there's still proof this is not just a hardware

company. are the airline stocks losing altitude? markets reaching a key level today, but where are we heading from here? off the charts to find out next. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us anytime anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app my ameriprise advisor has helped me navigate uncertain times before, now is no different. with his advice, i'm confident i'm on track. the plan we created is for the long term. no wonder clients rate us 4.9 out of 5 in overall satisfaction. ameriprise financial. (woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business. unlimited premium data. unlimited hotspot data. (woman 2) you know it's from the most reliable 5g network in america? (vo) when it comes to your business, not all bars are created equal. so switch to verizon business unlimited today.

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welcome back to "fast money am" another check on the markets. stocks are selling off as the january rally appears to lose steam, the dow dropping more than 600 points, the worst day in over a month of the nasdaq snapping a seven-day winning streak some names still hovering near all-time highs, ulsa, hess and arch capital the trend lower, the s&p dropping below its 200-day moving average just a week ago it broke back above it what could this move mean for stocks off the charts with chris barone what do you see for the s&p? >> i think it's a trendless environment and what we show you is just the s&p and we're smack in the middle of what has been the range now for the last six months

we traded between 43 and 45 on the high side. 39 and change today, snack in the middle i think if we're going to break up and out of this range we need to see the new high list really expand something we watch the number of stocks at three-month highs, i want to see this surge 35, 40, 45% of the index meet that hurdle it's exactly what we saw coming off the 2020 lows, we saw it at various points in 2021 good, durable moves are met with an expanding new high list buy the low end but perhaps the bigger clue about where we are in the re joem here is s&p versus gold. s&p is on the lows relative to geld if you bought in 2022 at the low, you would havelost money relative to gold that is a very different regime

than i think the consensus is used to. so whether you're bullish or bearish on s&p,gold is still better here. i think it's a very important message. >> we also want to touch on your call from apple last month it was sort of controversial because you said you liked 100 those were your words. do you still see it heading to 100? >> i do. if it was controversial then, it's just as much right now. we've had a very, i would describe, tepid bounce in apple the last couple of weeks we failed at about 140 today, that downward sloping 50-day moving average i think the relative profile is still quite weak the moving average is turning flat and moving lower. let's just think about this behaviorally what is the purpose of bear markets? bear markets change leadership so i find it very unlikely in the next bull that we're going to go back to the same type of stocks that defined the last environment. so why do i want to own this in a down trend when i can own what

i think is the new leadership? it's all these big basic resource stocks coming out of the massive bases. bhp, this could be freeport, southern copper, these have been dead money for the last 15 or 20 years, all starting to break out of the big ranges. when you're in this leadership regime, i think people spend too much time trying to go back to the former leaders instead of embracing what the market is saying is what's next. this is what's next. spend your time and your capital here >> all right chris, good to see you chris verrone. this is music to a lot of people's ears, metals, materials. tim, you're looking at commodities. >> i think bhp, rio tinto, this is a case where if you look at copper prices they're up 15% this year. this isn't a trade that is at

all fearful -- it's not just about china reopening. i'm not telling you that global demand is going through the roof i'm telling you we have a decash onization trend going on in the world. you need more and things -- if you listen to investor day today, because this is what i do sometimes -- and they pointed out they think copper needs to go to almost $7 a pound. it's now at $4.22 a pound. to wipe out the demand and get it back into supply and demand i think between china, between what's going on i think actually in trends going on in the world in terms of renewables and what not, copper was always a supply disruption kind of metal i think the integrated miners -- i agree with chris and i think you have more to go. >> and the dollar trend right now is on the side of metals guy, what was your acronym

again? >> don't feign ignorance, mel. i know you know. that would be m.o.j.o. and the m is metals. tim is right and going back to the lead of the show, why is the fed so dogmatic in their view when seemingly they're winning. the reason why is because of what tim pointed out when you think you have inflation beat it rears its ugly head and i think they're trying to avoid the mistakes made in 1972 i remember it well i think they will be steadfast commodities can go higher from here, significantly so i think metals mining and the resource names could be the year for them for sure. >> you may be surprised the q in my tls is qqq and one of the largest holdings is apple. if you see apple at 100, 110, i think you have to buy that there are some exciting things i think the idea of this mixed reality headset if it were to come out later this year for apple, i think they literally might have the first mass use product in ar and vr and you

think of their install base at 1.5 billion ios users around the world. no one has been able to tell us how we'll use ar and vr. i think we all have apple products in and around us. >> how about the notion chris is talking about, the new leadership will not be the old leadership >> i don't buy it. put together the metals and mining companies, they don't add up there's no way we enter another bull market without -- >> i would say apple's dominance has so peaked in this country, it doesn't change -- what's that >> who is the incremental customer >> this is one of the great american companies of all time i love apple >> what if they do to ar and vr what they did to smart phones? >> apple peaked in terms of market cap, in thamerms of its dominance on the market, suppliers. >> let's double it up.

>> good old-fashioned street fight we can have on another show >> starring little miss sunshine >> i know. role reversal not risk reversal. we mentioned a few of them but there are six days left to vote for your favorite 2023 trader acronym. all the picks are on our home page you can pick your three favorites. head on over to cnbc.com/fastmoney or scan the qr code on your screen to vote polls end tuesday, january 24. coming up we're diving into high-energy trading, oil and energy stocks hitting major milestones where are proices going from here could this glass onion make you cry? the details when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money am" oil and energy stocks fueled by enthusiasm over china's reopening. the etf traded at highs not seen since april 2019 before retreating along with the broader market even with today's losses oih is

up 40% over the past year. one of the os in m.o.j.o., guys. >> when you look at the time frames we talk about on the show but if we're looking at the m.o.j.o. year all service names are still very reasonable in this environment on valuation and as tim has pointed out numerous times, the majority of companies, the three that make up 50% of etf, halliburton, even if it goes nowhere this year, meaning sideways, i think the stocks are still under valued. >> i agree with guy's o in m.o.j.o. this was my o last year which i still own, and i think it's great. one other trade i had on, that trade -- i took it off way early and oih has done way better than oil, so it used to be oil could be flat, down, didn't matter

still oih would be fine. now probably flat or up would be really good for the oih and we're probably at flat or up i know you're probably more bullish than flat or up. >> this is part of my live trade last year. the e being energy or live, depending how you do it. i'm still very long and outperformed the underlying oil by 80% the last six to nine months i think opec was out there today, talking about china demand and what that means for supply and demand balances but it's not about the price of crude. i think we would all agree to that unless you're an oil trader, which i'm not. >> guy, your m.o.j.o. is tied for first. this is a competition going on go to our home page -- >> it's a popularity contest >> you can vote as many times as you want i voted six times just now

>> can i interject quickly >> quickly >> jeff mills' mom watches this show, and i know for a fact she has been sitting there pressing the button for her son, which i totally dig, by the ay, mrs. mills. do your thing. from energy to airlines, jets etf is up 17% dan nathan says it could hit some serious turbulence. dan? >> we had that great interview with the ceo of united and that guidance they gave in his commentary seeped bullish. the stock opened up at a new 52-week high today and then reversed i thought that was really interesting. karen said it in the a block, would much rather see stocks go down into earnings than rally, and this stock has rallied a lot. it was up 40% or so just in the last month and tim pointed out last night after we talked to mr. kirby here is the deal i look at this thing and that united chart, and i see a beautiful double top i look at the jets etf and pull

it out for two years and see a very well-defined down trend it just got above that down trend briefly. that reversal on good news leads me to kind of want to put on a defined risk bearish trade when the jets was trading just above $20 at 20.16, i bought the february expiration put spret. i told one of the 18 at about a dime that is 40 cents and i can make up that premium at risk there so my break even is down there at 19.55. if it is below 18 on february expiration i really like the risk/reward there. risking about 2.5% i have a break even down 3% and can make up to 8%. if it is down to 18, i like the risk/reward here and always when i am trading options

directionally long premium, if the thing is not going my way and i have about a 50% loss in that, i will cut that because i just don't want to see the long premium trades go to zero. that's how i'm managing the trade. >> the fundamentals in the airline space are very interesting. i think they're the grittest trading stocks of all time it's rallied 40% in nine sessions i think you can sell upside calls because you probably paid more in that direction i think airlines are going higher i think you can get them lower >> for more options action tune in to the full show friday up next, netflix results on deck numbers set to cross after the bell tomorrow. is it time to bet on the binger or stream elsewhere? the trade when "fast money" returns. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs?

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just look around. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can.

so let's go. the digital age is waiting. welcome back to "fast money. the countdown is on to netflix earnings, the streaming giant has doubled since the may low. analysts are expecting to see revenue growth and expect aps to be well below last year's levels investors have their eyes on subgrowth, the effects of the

password crackdown and the growth of its ad-supported subscription tier. guy, what do you think >> we've been saying it could trend up to 345 in earnings for a while. that's where we broke down from in april i will stand by that, sort of in the deep end of the pool given the run. i think this is what will wind up happening you will get that bounce after earnings to the upside, and i think it's going to fade from there. so 345 tomorrow after earnings, pull the rip cord from there, mel. >> i'm long netflix and i'm in the money on this trade now. it was painful for a while and has had a huge run it's doubled it's not cheap i believe the media companies, the streamers, have been sold as if the business was tomorrow's everything is no longer anything and i want to stay here in netflix. i think they're still the leader, i stay there >> i agree with all of that, but they have a big -- they have a big enterprise value, right? some of the other ones have been annihilated and are off the

bottom of annihilated. netflix has gotten back a lot of its annihilation i think even if they put up okay numbers, think how much the stock has run going into this. i have to sell some upside calls. >> it's about the setup. >> the options market is about 10% either direction and the stock has had some massive moves over the last couple of years. i just think given the rally it's had, the way guy is thinking about it, if you're long and willing to play for that one move, fill in gaps. to me, i wouldn't be playing long >>p xtfil tres une, naad

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lomita feed is 101 years old. when covid hit, we had some challenges.

i heard about the payroll tax refund that allowed us to keep the people that have been here taking care of us. learn more at getrefunds.com. "final trade" time guy adami? >> shoutout to mrs. mills and a birthday shoutout to sandy, cirrus logic >> happy birthday. tim? >> big happy birthday, sandy walmart. get an ice cream cake or something like that. a sell-off from its highs this is a place walmart thrives >> karen >> yes, mine is short netflix

calls and another happy birthday to stacy finerman, my sister >> but not naked short >> against stock thank you for clarifying >> happy birthday. i would be a seller of the my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you save some money. my job to entertain, educate, teach. call me 800-743-cnbc tweet me @jimcramer. sometimes it's about what side of the ball you're on. the offens