♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede these are the headlines. the imf will increase the global forecast for the year, but the director tells the world economic forum panel states rising rates pose a risk >> let me set the biggest caution i could today. labor markets are holding firm so far, but interest rates are

yet to bite. expectations for a less aggressive fed hit the greenback and the ecb director says there is an issue. >> we have to stay the course of the that is my mantra. no question about that tech stocks lead the nikkei higher on the back of the wall street rally and the wall street minutes show a pause with governor kuroda. >> we will continue the current an accommodative expansion policy. and a covid wave is unlikely as 80% of the population has been infected and the rural health system struggles during

the lunar new year holiday the outlook for the global economy has improved, but risk could derail recovery. that is the statement from the world economic panel from davos. the imf could upgrade the forecast for the global growth, the survey found analysts now expect the eurozone to avoid recession this year. reflecting a sharp turn in sentiment. the global weconomy is not as ba as first feared. >> what improved is the prospect for china to boost growth. remember last year, 2022, china registered for the first time in

40 years lower growth rate than the global average never happened in 40 years now with the reopening of china, we expect growth this year to again exceed global average. we project 2.7% for the world. this may be corrected in a couple of days for china, we project 4.4% and also what has changed in the positive is that we have seen strength of labor markets translating into consumers spending and keeping the economy up why we should be cautious? fi first, 2.7, if this is the

growth we achieve, is not fabulous this is the third lowest growth rate in the decade after the global financial crisis and covid. it's not great second, we don't know quite yet how inflation will march downward what if the good news of china growing faster translating to oil and gas prices jumping up and putting pressure on inflation? >> now ecb president lagarde said policymakers should keep going to cut inflation pressure this year. she said that china reopening could present challenges for the rest of the world. >> we are heading into the year where hopefully the corporate and consumers and state and policymakers will continue to have that resilient, determined approach in order to engineer

the transition that must take place. whether it is digital or green or whether it is inclusive we need to make sure the most fragile countries in the world and we have to stay the course of resilience from 2022. stay the course is my mantra no question about that i think other players must also do the same thing. they must do it probably in a more subtle way than they had in 2022 the fiscal support that was expanded in 2022, for instance, must be better directed and targeted and made such it is not going to push the monetary policy actors to do a bit more as kristina stated earlier in all that, china is waking up again after, you know, assessed

to 3.3% growth and now forecasting 5.5% growth. we should welcome the auspices of the commitments it is a case that corporate policy or the change of the covid policy will kill a lot of people, but will revive the economy and that's clearly a determined choice that was made by the chinese authorities minutes from the bank of japan meeting show a half hour adjournment to contact the ministries over the surprise yield curve. the central bank doubled the ten-year yield trading ban to plus or minus 0.5% governor kuroda approved the move before stepping down. japan's prime minister said sunday that he will nominate a new governor next month. geoff asked kuroda if it had been a mistake for the central bank to widen the trading ban?

>> i don't think the decision taken by the board last month was not wrong. probably right we will continue the current extremely accommodative expansion and monetary policy in order to achieve 2% target in the sustainable market >> let's look now at the markets faring out in europe with the start that has been fairly positive across the board. the cac 40 above the 7,000 point mark ftse 100 just up a bit shares falling today over 7% for symrise. it missed full-year earnings expectations an interesting one to look out for. the dax up 1%.

getting to the sectors you take a look at the tech having gained 1.4% at this early part of the trading morning. .8% weaker for chemicals on to the currencies let's look at that the dollar weakening a lot more considering the bets on the chinese economy that expected to bounce back a little bit more this year with focus turning to key u.s. data expected this week gdp nusmbers coming on thursday that should provide interest dollar and treasury yields have retreated on the notion that the u.s. may be looking to hike, but not necessarily as high as they thought they would initially slowing of interest rates will be critical and could be happening there. let's get to the market

picture who joins us now daniel, i appreciate your time we saw a slowdown in the january window we thought would happen there was a pause in january that we are seeing is that a signal of things to come considering how many other issues are still at play you still have high inflation and rising rates in the picture and very possible with yields continuing to go up. >> certainly we got the pleasant surprise with the chinese economy reopening post covid that is something no one expected certainly very beneficial for growth and earnings. we priced that in. what next? you are right to point out that it will likely be bad things or negative things for the market as opposed to positive things. we are more concerned where inflation is currently and where it will go and what it means for

the central banks and what it means for risk actssets. >> european assets, for example, have been under valued or valued lower than the u.s. counterparts for a long time. that seems to be the standard. there seems to be the urge to get into european assets this year a little bit more considering the pe that you are getting from the european market do you think that would be the case a little bit more bang for your buck from the european market this year? >> if you look at valuations, that is absolutely true. on a pe basis, u.s. is above average. europe is below average relative to history not relative to each other the relative to pe for europe, you have to believe the earnings estimate price compared to the earnings expectations. we are skeptical

the pe is higher and you don't have the discount. for that reason, we don't see what appears to be a pe as a fundamental case >> what do you think the markets are looking into and saying this actually is the basis we are trading on now and particularly not until the end of the year, but the first quarter of the year >> it depends on which market. one challenge is different markets are siending different signals. if you look at the yield curve in the u.s., you see a recession coming you see the recession hasn't arrived yet. it depends which market is right and we're more on the bond market side thinking things will slow down more it makes us cautious toward equities. >> bond markets have been one to look in to with keen interest now. actually offering some really good return. >> absolutely.

this is going to be the return of the bond market, if you will. at a minimum, you will get interest income you have not had in a long time in addition to volatility and yields, but expecting yields to be lower at the end of the year. the fed will at some point start lowering rates that is attractive when you look at the optimism priced in equities with the decline, but a risk for more. >> you are interested in the bond market. is this a time for asset accumulation we are still set for higher rates and just not sure how much if lagarde believes it is 50 basis point hikes on the way and not necessarily the 25 >> that is an interesting question for the market. you see both in the eurozone and

u.s. with the expectation that inflation is going to decelerate quickly by the end of the year 2% in the u.s. 2.5% higher in the eurozone. that allows the central bank to cut rates in the summer. also in the sewer ozone. if you look at core inflation, you think that could happen in the u.s. core inflation has been falling t. is not in the eurozone. another reason to be cautious of the optimism you see with policy rates. >> is that 2% feasible that 2% rate let's go u.s does that look feasible considering where we are the pull down and slowdown is not as they hoped. maybe they underestimated a softer landing does that mean we take longer to get to 2% or does that mean we re-look at the base case for inflation? >> we think we will get to 2%. not by the end of the year

you are right to think about the markets -- i guess it is your guess behind the markets we see goods inflation and disinflation and falling prices and we help that continues and voila we're at 2%. the other benign scenario happens because we get the recession. that will bring down inflation and not particularly in a positive way for risk asset. it is not only that forecast which you can agree or disagree with, but what leads you to that number. >> i think it gets soi interesting for me thinking about the permutations that could still be in the cards and how much you have to wrestle with looking at perhaps with inflation not stemming lower and that soft landing is becoming more significant do you think central banks are looking at it going maybe we do need to look at that scenario or

is it just a hardline stance and inflation has to be that element we have to fight and that needs to go down completely. as madame lagarde is saying, stay the is easy for the centra bank with the one inflation target clear more difficult for the u.s. because the fed is also supporting employment. that is the paradox for them they can't achieve inflation target without getting the unemployment rate up a bit they have to pick one. we think they will pick the inflation target it comes down toi both regions the strength of the labor market >> to give a final word. your asset choice for the year still bonds? >> yes slightly overweight equities

looking more for opportunities in eurozone. >> thank you thank you for the time i really appreciate it a lot of the permutations will be something to look out for especially with the earnings season as it is right now. daniel morris at bnp paribas thank you. inflation reduction act catalking about a european rival. europeans are looking to capitalize on the energy subsidy. geoff asked the french finance minister how europe should respond. >> we need to have the global app approach and the united states and president biden have decided to invest in the green industry and accelerate the fight against climate change

europe must do the same thing. if we want to compete, we need to have a very strong, effective, efficient, swift european industry policy >> former u.s. treasury sec secr secretary larry summers spoke out. >> i would talk about a subsidy war and trade war. a subsidy war about good things is a good thing. walling off each other's innovation is basically a much more problematic thing so, yes, i would like to keep markets open and i think that is mutually important i think in its totality, the

inflation reduction act in the united states is a historically positive measure if we are all competing over who can accelerate a transition toward renewables more rapidly, who can be thinge biggest leadei storage technology that is a healthy kind of competition. coming up on the show, french president emmanuel macron meets german chancellor olof scholz and discuss the war in ukraine. we'll discuss more after the break.

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and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. now the eu foreign policy chief says he hopes member states willagree to 500 euro aid package for ukraine. speaking this morning and he said it is up to individual countries to decide what support they wanted to provide >> being a very good result from the number of arms we which provide. the member states deciding it

provide to ukraine don't dismiss the result a lot of good decisions have been taken that means each member state should decide what they want to do germany has engaged a lot with big amount of resources. about this issue with the tanks? this is not the only thing to be discussed. many other contributions from member states to the support of ukraine has been taken. >> now german foreign minister says it is important that the international community does everything it can to defend ukraine. earlier this week, they said they would not block poland from sending tanks to ukraine a breakthrough for kyiv which has been calling on that for months germany has resisted so far and blocked nato allies from doing so, too.

chancellor olof scholz says all decisions will be made in coordination with western allies, including the united states any final decision from berlin is up to the german chancellor poland prime minister says it will ask germany to send battle tanks to ukraine. the polish minister is open to building a coalition of countries if germany is not part of the solution. let's look at the defense stocks and how they are trading up .50% for bae. that comes after the u.s. officials completed the next package of military aid to ukraine. that is worth $2.5 billion that package expected to include a number of artillery weapons which helped bae systems you have the likes of general dynamics continuing to rise and

totale as well french president emmanuel macron welcomed chancellor olof scholz at the palace this weekend. the two disagreed over weapons deliveries to ukraine and meant to discuss future cooperation and other issues such as security france promised to send light tanks to ukraine >> translator: as for the tanks, i asked the defense minister to work on it nothing is ruled out this is indeed a collective and regard to three criteria fir firstly, since we have done since the beginning, this should not escalate conflict. the second is to provide real and effective support to the

ukrainians for that, we have to take into account the ability and operational support to ukrainians and including taking into account time for training >> charlotte joins us now as we unpack this story. charlotte, let's call this a new threat to europe is what they are trying to outline here president macron and chancellor scholz are certainly going to look and ask themselves where they are disagreeing over helping someone else that is the sentiment. >> it is a crucial time for europe the french and german cooperation is crucial for europe there have been disagreements with the countries with the arrival of chancellor scholz with the spark with macron and merkel they have been disagreeing on energy and defense this joint cabinet meeting with france and germany happens once

a year it was supposed to happen in october. it had been postponed because of some disagreement. they felt they could not progress on the two issues now this is the six-year anniversary of the treaty with the cooperation of the countries to hold the meeting. on the surface, it was a show of unity with the two leaders there has been progress on energy and germany in the past has been in favor of the midcap pipeline france went ahead with the hydrogen pipeline. they announced germany would take part. some progress here with the space and battery initiatives as well there was no big initiative announced by macron and scholz they talked about the support for ukraine, but not the

details. they talk about tanks and maybe progress there the key issue has been the european response to the i inflation reduction act from the u.s. they have a strong response of the made in europe industry. this is what chancellor scholz said yesterday >> it is necessary we handle the inflation reduction act. we need to make sure we are not treated worse like canada or me mexico the many content regulations cause discrimination >> and macron talked about that in response. there was no further details with the response. we know the sticking point to the i.r.a. the creation of the fund

we know germany has been worried about it and agreed to it in the covid pandemic france will have a similar one germany is not sure. the question of the reform on the electricity market that germany is not on board with again, no big announcement or breakthrough in the meeting yesterday. chancellor scholz tweeting this german machine is a well oiled machine. there is still a lot of hard work needed to have real fruit and result from the efforts. they don't have this done yet. >> the hard work and we will look at this closely to see what cooperation they come up with. you know it is up to the other countries that will suffer if they don't find that solution. thank you, charlotte, for joining us on that story coming up on the show, bayer

is facing a call to spin off the health unit. we'll discuss after the break.

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm arabile gumede these are the headlines. the economic outlook upgrades for the global forecast for the year the world economic forum panel was told rising rates could still pose a risk. >> let me send the biggest caution i could send today labor markets are holding firm so far, but interest rates are yet to bite. expectations for a less aggressive fed hit the greenback and christine lagarde says there are still more 50 basis point hikes still ahead sending the euro to a nine-month high. >> stay the course is my mantra.

no question. tech stocks lead the nikkei higher on the back of wall street's rally while the bank of japan minutes show last month's meeting took a rare pause with governor kuroda. depending the policy stance to cnbc >> we will continue the current accommodative expansion and monetary policy. top chinese scientists say a covid wave is unlikely as 80% of the population has been infected while the rural health system struggles during the lunar new year holiday here is a look at the european market picture. generally green across the board. ftse mib in negative territory

ftse 100 is .10% higher. interesting to note. you have the shares of symrise hitting the bottom today because they missed the full year earnings you have shares climbing 3% today. citigroup upgraded the liquor company's stock to buy that was from neutral. raising its target price adding to the cac 40 which has gone up .10% today you have seen the likes of the chemicals moving in different directions as well across the t two-day trading picture. that has been interesting to look at here on to the currency euro off to the nine-month high. you noted earlier on, the ecb president christine lagarde noting 50 basis point hikes

still to come. it is not an element of lower hikes now, but still aggressive stance expected when it comes to inflation. ensuring it is reduced as much as possible. perhaps as the end of the year getting to the 2% number is where she expects it to be you are seeing weakness for the u.s. dollar here with the euro really going a lot higher. 109 is where we sit right now. .40% against the u.s. dollar that front with the fed expected to slow a lot of its rate hikes. at what pace 90% is a chance of a 25 basis point hike at the february meeting. that could go up with inflation the key element. speaking of the u.s. this is the picture as we head to the open out in the united states wall street set to be quite flat with the slightly negative tinge

to it. most markets in asia closed for the lunar new year no push toward that market right now. activist fund elliott management has taken a stake in salesforce the latest firm in the tech sector announcing around of layoffs with 10% of staff losing their jobs salesforce market capitalization is half from the 2021 high here is a look at the salesforce market picture up 4% in pre-market trading. up five points to the good bayer has been criticized for not considering the spinoff of the health division bayer's chair lacks innovation

and doesn't engage with investors. blue bell capital partners is pressuring bayer to break up let's chat with annette with the latest on the story. lack of innovation, annette. a lot still needs to be done and changes need to come >> that is true. the pressure on bayer is increasing to change the corporate insstructure. to give you an idea of the shares if you look at the five-year shares, they are down 45%. that is mainly because of the monsanto deal for bayer with the legal issues not completely settled. at the same time, you look at the valuation of bayer shares.

currently some 7 pe. forward looking pe it is much lower than the competition. here is why activist investors are calling for a split of the company. bluebell and others have entered or have increased their stake in bayer as soon as last year and they are calling for a break up of the health business from the agro chemical business they are looking for 50% of bayer and the chemical business at 45% if you were to take the companies and break them up in two companies, citi analysts say it could be t85% higher for the shares european pharma at 15% and bayer

at 7%. when you talk about the agriculture chemical business, the earnings are higher. dow chemical is valued at roughly 20 times forward looking pe that gives you an idea of how potential bayer could be valued much higher with the share price. what happens next? there could be management changes because bayer ceo is set to retire as soon as april of 2024 with the mounting pressure from the activist investors and now union investment calling for phase of the consumer health business, changes could happen much faster than previously expected that could mean there is a lot of potential for bayer shareholders

>> annette, thank you for that it will be an interesting one. let's head to china which is downplaying the covid surge after the spread of medicine shortages in areas 80% of peoplehave been infecte and that means a second wave is unlikely in the meantime, test kits and lack of access of lung imaging equipment is hindering containment. the news comes as hundreds of millions of chinese travel to celebrate the lunar new year speaking of traveling. this is the traveling stocks at this point in time china opening up and there is the expectation for things to get better you are seeing modest gains on the likes of lufthansa easyjet is up. and ihg and whitbread down

and winter travel demand is down according to the report from ab bernstein. airlines may have dodged the macro bullet cha china reopening is expected to boost the economy. alexander irving at ab bernstein is here to unpack this thank you for the time i appreciate it. are we expecting more from china's reopening than is actually set to happen with covid up and the lack of ability to contain the virus is still a big factor that could, perhaps, hinder travel for longer than we think. >> it could. it will vary airline by airline. one issue is inbound tourists

and the other is corporate travel to and from china you look at germany and a lot of capital goods business and that travel is not possible for the last three years. >> what is the catalyst for the airline industry it seems to be holding upper than some would expect. oil prices have been going up and gas prices going higher as well inflation. that means cost of flying, et cetera, is not easy to keep up with resilience in the sector >> demand has been surprisingly strong in 2022, people have not been able to travel and then the facts you outlined the slowdown in demand is an issue. the pent-up demand is holding up increasing expectation >> you have a recession coming

especially around europe as has been touted a lot. how much does that play into the hands of a slowdown of futur prospects for airlines >> it can demand it matters a lot in the business s supply and demand is precarious for airlines lufthansa, never thought it would fly again. pandemic never to see it back in the sky. summer of 2023 it will be there. >> is that because of efficiencies looking at it now and realizing it could work. it makes more sense now. >> just because demand is strong enough these are older aircraft and engines and they burn more fuel and expensive to operate operate other planes first if you can put those in the

skies profit able >> the question is sustainability with. this is a sustainable basis for us we see this being the course into the summer when things more profitable >> i think so. you will see more flights in the sky and more capacity and travel demand over the medium term, you get sustainability issues and more efficient planes and less fuel burn those factors will remain for the airline industry so far, we are still in that mode >> are we saying the worst is over we have seen a few layoffs in the industry as well trying to, perhaps, become as efficient as possible as entities does this mean the worst is over >> i certainly hope so go back three years and we were

completely shutting down the industry i don't want to go back to that once again as long as we have our hands on the virus and no large geopolitics, we will get back into aviation. >> with regards to geopolitics the russian invasion of ukraine is hurting fuel prices is that continuing to play into the market this year or is that a thing of the past? is the worry of the geopolitical tensions spark up and that could impact things more >> the geopolitics obviously can. the thing with the european airlines is the lack of the air space. the quickest route over russia usually over the southern route. around the caspian sea and around europe. that takes longer and more

planes to fly the same number ever people and supply c constraint on the market support ticket prices if you need more planes that you don't have to fly the same number of passengers. >> certainly interesting industry very interesting to look at. alexander, thank you for joining us i appreciate the chat. alexander irving analyst at ab bernstein. coming up on the show, microsoft and thatesla among the companies reporting as layoffs hit the tech sector.

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welcome back to "street signs. my apologies alphabet is the latest tech giant to announce job cuts it will layoff 12,000 employees which is 6% of staff the alphabet ceo told employees he took full responsibility for the decision saying the company increased staffing levels rapidly for a

different economic reality than the one we face today. alphabet shares rose 5% in friday's trading picture that's what it looks like now. it is up around 10% on the 30 days richard windsor at radio free mobile joins us to get into the tech sector. richard, some might say the tech sector is in crisis. it is really in recalculation. the alphabet ceo is right here you have a different economic reality. >> to be honest, that is right you look at microsoft and alphabet with the exception of amazon, they generate a lot of cash it is not like we have to cut costs to stay in business, it is more of a lapse of judgment. they thought the economic boom that happened in the pandemic in term of revenue would continue that obviously is not case

i would call that short sighted. at the end of the day, that is what it is an adjustment, not full-on panic. >> adjustment we have to look into and ask if it weakens the entities let's go through the numbers these are just a headline on the bigger companies go google, 12,000 jobs lost there amazon, 18,000 meta, 11,000 microsoft, 10,000. that is more than they hired during the pandemic. that means it should be impacting their business and may not be as innovative as we expect >> i think that is frankly unlikely i think the better way i think about it is the companies over-hired in the first place and over-hired before the pandemic started i think twitter is a good and extreme example.

mr. musk fired half the work force, but the service is still running. some say that will cut innovation when was the last time we saw innovation from twitter? when you see a job cut that size and the system still works, you have to ask the question and how overstaffed are the others meta and snapchat are the ones to look at there >> just seen by the change of name from facebook to meta myspace is looking to get in that area as well. now looking to get deep investment in that area. does it mean they now have to slow progress in what is the advancement of the technology? >> this is a good question two things there one, you know, our research into the area has highlighted the fact it could be ten years before the metaverse is really

big. that means is it a problem to slow investment in the short-term probably not the second thing is microsoft's metaverse strategy, if you like, has been in disarray for some time we published in june or july last year and we did not know what microsoft was doing with the metaverse. it had a lot of assets and didn't know the direction or which way to go. that is the job cuts of confirmation of what has been going on at microsoft for some time. >> that is an interesting one to look out for is there space in the picture for the businesses that are not making the money, but you really having to deploy so much of assets to getting it to grow with microsoft, i'll give you the example with netflix the business was really at the peak and you use up a lot of assets to ensure you got more products on to the site and then

once you had that, you hoped to turn a profit. do you think there is still appetite for that kind of technology entity in the market now? >> there is appetite for it. it is more on the private side, i would say. you know, when it comes to the public markets, there is an issue. why is amazon announced the biggest job cuts of all? largely because of all of the big tech companies, them and netflix, have not really flirted with profitability now the company actually needs to generate profitability before people start to ask the question why am i paying 50 times earnings for a company which is slow growth and no profits >> that is the key element it is $100 billion plus that could possibly be put into the investments. really into an unknown future. it is what is driven this sector

before, right? there is still a lot of hyeight they could climb despite all of this >> that is right these job cuts will release cash and profit that could be reinvested in the business you know, the problem, of course, is it revenue growth and slowing. when revenue growth is slowing and you are still showing a price earnings of 25 and sales multiple of 5 and people ask the question instead of reinvesting in the business which will not see return for a while, pay me dividend or buyback some of my shares >> yeah. very interesting richard, i appreciate it thank you for the time this morning. richard windsor. founder of radio free mobile. let's look at the week ahead. we have earnings to come through. microsoft set to kickoff the

bumper week of economic earnings pmi data from the largest companies in euro as well as the u.s. on wednesday, tesla releases results over concerns of demand levels we have the latest report from germany. we get u.s. gdp numbers on thursday that comes out alongside consumer spending data and a number of earnings from intel and spain rounds off the week with flash gdp numbers on friday quick look at the u.s. futures then and how that is looking things are fairly mixed here with the little bit of the uptick for the dow jones industrial average that is the enofhed t show. i'm arabile gumede "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. just look around. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting.

it is 5:00 a.m. on wat indu wal street here is the top "five@5. we will see if wall street can keep the rally going. shares of salesforce as one jumps into the stock. and good news for the economy? new jpmorgan chase model showing odds of recession falling rapidly. don't at don't tell tech. and places