it is 5:00 a.m. on wat indu wal street here is the top "five@5. we will see if wall street can keep the rally going. shares of salesforce as one jumps into the stock. and good news for the economy? new jpmorgan chase model showing odds of recession falling rapidly. don't at don't tell tech. and places topping the list

of the best places to buy a home this year. better load up on the sunscreen. it is monday, january 23rd this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon, good evening. welcome as always from wherever in the world you may be watching i'm brian sullivan thank you for joining us on monday morning let's get to it and see how we are kicking off the week futures are not giving us a lot of help. flat across the board. dow up a little bit. s&p down a bit we are just starting off the week we have a lot of earnings to roll out we are coming off what was a strong finish to an overall lack luster week for stocks nasdaq and s&p had the best day since november earnings and the fed still driving the macro market for

sentiment. buyers overall have come back into stocks this year. i'll talk about that in the next couple minutes and throughout the show the next fed meeting is january 31st to february 1st bond yields are not moving at all. bond yields at 3.48% and have been stable lately that helped stabilize mortgage rates. energy it has been a little less stable prices have been ticking back up if you haven't been paying attention, you should. price of crude is back up to $82. brent crude is creeping back toward the $90 a barrel mark natural gas a little bit higher this morning for oil, flights and jet travel and china soaring again, sorry, pun intended on that as far as oil goes, nothing is as hot as cryptocurrency

bitcoin above $22,000. bitcoin at $22,790 now up 45% since the ftx related november lows. bitcoin was below $16,000 in november now creeping back toward $23,000. wow. what a run for bitcoin. around the world, most markets in asia are closed in china, anyway the week is closed for the lunar celebration. let's go to london and check in with the european markets with arabile gumede >> good morning, brian certainly as you have been struggling for direction with the u.s. and struggling for direction is the case out in europe just above the flat line is where we are sitting with not much information from the asian markets with the lunar new year. not getting the gains you perhaps would get or levels you

thought you would as well. general sense of positivity. getting word from ecb president christine lagarde speaking of 50 basis point hikes are still a thing which is bound to happen in the first quarter of the year that does mean you see the euro go up to a nine-month high particularly against the u.s. dollar that has been able to push things up further as well. general sense of positivity with stocks like symrise falling 7% after missing earnings you have the chemicals gaining 2% in this picture that is because citigroup upgraded from neutral to buy and increasing the target price. positivity is the name of the game for now and the euro doing well brian. >> arabile, thank you. i appreciate it. let's get a check on the top

headlines, including potential tech layoffs and maybe a big social media move for donald j. trump. silvana henao is here with that. >> brian, good morning salesforce shares are popping in the pre-market reports this morning that elliott management had taken a multibillion dollar stake in the company. history shows elliott seeks board representation and pushing for companies to make oper operational improvement. this comes after salesforces would layoff 10% of the global work force coming off a 5% gain on friday, spotify again this morning reporting that the company is adding the name to the list of laying off staff in 2023 this week's cuts follow layoffs from october where it slashed 38

positions. "rolling stone" reports former president trump may not renew with truth social.expires. he told people close to him he doesn't want to re-up. the current contract makes him to post on truth six hours before posting on any other social network. >> if he makes that move, won didwonder where with he would go >> speculating. >> silvana, thank you. to the latest on the growing crisis around president biden and classified documents over the weekend, fbi agents and investigators spent 13 hours investigating president biden's wilmington, delaware home. they uncovered a thifrd group o classified items this is as calls grow for a

deeper investigation and why it was hidden from the husband. brie jackson is joining from us d.c. brie >> reporter: brian, growing criticism from both sides of the aisle. the white house is emphasizing the 13-hour search of the delaware home of the president took place at the invitation of mr. biden's lawyers. a new round of criticism regarding president biden's handling of sensitive government documents after an fbi search uncovered six additional items and some with classified ma markings at his delaware home on friday some go back as far as his time in senate. >> he is a serial classified doc document hoarder >> the president's attorneys reached out to doj and offered access and it was provided they wanted to do that as part of the process of getting the information they need and making

sure that no other materials were in the house. >> reporter: this is the fourth batch of classified documents found between two locations. the private residence and former d.c. office. the total number remains unclear. a special counsel is investigating the matter as are house republicans. >> i think there are a lot of questions. >> reporter: some democrats say the president made a mistake and should own up to it. >> you should say it was irresponsible. we should have a better check and balance. >> reporter: the others in the party say it is not a deciding factor for voters. >> this is not keeping americans up at night. they are worried about more day-to-day things like inflation and prices at the pump and prescriptions. >> reporter: the president is vowing to cooperate with the investigation. the notes mr. biden has written as vice president were among the

documents. br brian? >> the investigation is happening as president biden's team is changing a new chief of staff coming in. >> reporter: that is right sources tell nbc news that jeff zients is the new chief of staff. he led the white house covid-19 response team. he is expected to replace ron clain who is expected to leave after the president's state of the union address. >> brie jackson. thank you. good morning we are just getting started on a busy monday the "r" word has been thrown around one big bank says the odds of recession this year are now lower than ever. plus, first google and others and now spotify with the hiring headwinds playing into the earnings and later on with hedge fund history

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that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. welcome or welcome back. good monday morning. earnings are ready to pick up in a big way this week. 12 dow components and s&p set to release this week. lots of companies including microsoft and tesla and

southwest airlines, which, of course, is still reeling from the holiday disaster. here is good news on the economy. odds of recession this year appear to be coming down according to jpmorgan chase. according to the firm's trading model, a number of asset classes now show less than a 50% chance of recession that is a major reversal from october when markets across the board were largely all pricing in contraction this year that prediction, or analysis, goes against their own ceo view. remember, jamie dimon talking about an economic hurricane happening this year. let's stay on the markets and economy and welcome back in joanna gallegos. focused on fixed income.

welcome back do you have a take on the economy? >> it seems we are ending or getting close to the end of the rate cycle with the comments last week and indications last week we would not necessarily sound the all clear here we perceive volatility in the markets and in particular, we need to pay attention and not listen to the fed conviction about continuing the work until inflation is down to 2%. we need to be cautious when we think of the all clear here. you cannot deny it across the board. this is a risk-on month. we see investors moving into risk asset. >> what is amazing to me, joanna, is how little the 10-year treasury moved so far all of the hand wringing over the fed, what we are left with is the u.s. government

ten-year at the same price and yield as 180 days ago. what do you make of that >> i think we are processing everything that has been going on through the economy and we are getting to what we like to say is the table has been set for 2023 we have a lot more certainty and clarity of where we are and our view is fixed income asset class has a huge potential for performance in 2023 at rate levels we have not seen over a decade plus. you are resetting valuations in a way that are attractive. i think the market is settling in on what's next. we have gotten past different points of market ex-uberance in 2022 we watched the fed double down on its path. now it looks like a more clear path for the markets

that maybe is where the stability is coming from >> well, you run a fixed income focused etf. i imagine corporate defaults related to the macro economy for the most part and interest rates are top of mind. so if i look into your etf or other parts of the fixed income market, do i assume that -- which is a dangerous word, by the way -- that corporate defaults and bankruptcies and bonds will bust and increase this year or will they ride it out and stay relatively where they are >> it feels that even though they could trend higher, we certainly project that corporate defaults will remain lower than the long-term afverage you have to remember the companies are starting from the stronger place than they maybe would have in other recessions they have better balance sheets. they did a lot of refinancing of debt in the pandemic when rates were low fundamentals allow them to come

together and allow them to weather the storm a little bit better if if wwe are softening on the expectation of recession, you may see defaults you see a difference of returns across with cccs are up this month. that doesn't mean it is an all clear. you can look at quality and credit and high yield and nig. we project that you will have a strong performance for fixed income with higher yields. more to come a strong place that companies are starting from relative other down turns and recession >> more to come. it is only january 23rd. joanna, thank you. >> thank you so much. a lot to do on this january 23rd you are very welcome the places topping the new list of the ten best cities to buy a home this year

james cameron adding $2 billion feather to his movie making cap. live from new york president biden's surprise saturday night live appearance the top trending stories is ahead. to where they're going. and at chevron, we're working to help reduce the carbon intensity of the fuels that keep things moving. today, we're producing renewable diesel that can be used in existing diesel tanks. and we're committed to increasing our renewable fuels production. because as we work toward a lower carbon future, it's only human to keep moving forward.

welcome back a serious developing story this morning. following the weekend shooting in monterey park, california

nbc's jay gray is joining us from monterrey park outside los angeles with the latest. jay. >> reporter: good morning, brian. hours before the killing spree, this dance hall behind us here, the streets filled with thousands wrapping up the first day of the annual two-day festival to ring in the lunar new year celebration quickly shifting to horror and heartache here. >> additional units requested. >> reporter: spray of gunfire through the dance club the scene is chaos as the police arrived. >> my young officers did their job. searched for a suspect and then came back and had to deal with the carnage inside

>> reporter: ten dead. ten more wounded suspect, according to police, on the run. showing up at a similar ballroom where he is confront the by people inside the club >> he was disarmed by two community members who i consider to be heroes >> reporter: as he escapes, witnesses get a glimpse of the vehicle. >> they have the white cargo van surrounded right now >> reporter: police tracking it down 12 hours later. >> they are breaching the van. >> reporter: inside is 72-year-old. the man responsible for the killing spree and dead from the self inflicted gunshot wound evidence ties him to both locations. it doesn't help to explain how or why it happened it does little to ease the concerns of the frightened and grieving community >> hearing this happen now is shocking

very sad confirming there is no safe place anymore. >> reporter: officials haven't released the names of the victims. five were men and five were women. described them as quote probably in their 50s and 60s and beyond. brian. >> another awful story jay, do we know more about the initial response by police can you give us the perspective in monterey? do we have more on motive? >> reporter: it really is a huge event. we know police were here within three minutes and there was a huge force that showed up to try to figure out what was going on and obviously understanding what happened to try to find out where the gunman may be. no word on the motive at this

point. that is something investigators say may take time as the investigation continues. as for the event, it really is a major event. it is something they hold every year this is a town of 59,000, but 100,000 show up each year for the celebration to ring in the lunar new year double the size of the city. a lot of people look forward to the festival that includes food trucks and vendors and celebrations that stretch into the evening and these types of dance halls where people again celebrate the lunar new year it is something that really wrecked the community at a time, brian, when obviously they were looking to enjoy themselves and ring in the new year with friends. >> jay gray in monterey park, california jay, thank you now let's get a check on the

other top headlines. nbc's phillip mena is in new york with those. >> brian, good morning jury selection in the murder trial of alec murdaugh a prosecutor gave a possible motive for the climb alleging he had schemed and stolen $8.5 million from a dozen victims the prosecutor suggested he was so desperate that he killed his wife and son and covered it up to gain sympathy if found guilty, murdaugh could face life in prison. and shifting to football cowboys and 49ers went head-to-head for a spot in the nfc championship game. >> a lot of room now over the middle. oh, what a catch by kittle >> george kittle came up big

with 95 yards receiving and that juggling catch in the third. a late score was enough for the 49ers to hold on eliminating th cowboys 19-12. in the afc, the bengals scored on the first two possessions. the bengals smothered the offense. they are heading back to the afc championship game with a win 27 27-10. then there were four the chiefs look for revenge against joe burrow and the bengals and then san francisco and eagles and border officials are looking at a spike of the crossing of eggs they doubled in the last three months of 2022 according to the online news site, a carton of 30 eggs costs

$40 in mexico. here in the u.s., you would be hard pressed to find a dozen egosdozen eggs near that price brian, back to you. >> illegal egg crossing. you are not yolking. >> i'm not >> i apologize phillip mena it's early why not? we have a lot of stuff to be serious about. when come back, your morning rbi and where the shoppers popped over the holidays. and more trouble for abbott labs looking at the baby formula plant shutdown last year if you missed "worldwide exchange," you can stream it or download it on the podcasting platforms. we thank you for your service. we are back right after this mot reliable

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can your money keep the hot start going to the year? tech with the hot start of the year could tech's run hit a pot hole of reality? earnings and guidance rolling out as more companies slash pay payroll. janet yellen throwing cold water on one $1 trillion idea to

solve the debt dilemma we'll tell you about it on this january 23rd. this is "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome or welcome back. good monday morning. i'm brian sullivan by the way, happy 66th birthday to the frisbee today in 1957, the first frisbee rolled off the line of wham-o. it is named after the frisbee pie company because people threw the pie tins at each other they improved on the design and made them plastic and the rest is history you didn't need to know that now you do there you go. here is how things look to start the week on things you need to know about which is the stock market we are not seeing futures do a lot. taking off like wham-o

dow down 8 points. no indication how the market will go. it is coming off the lower week for the s&p 500. it has been a good start to the year for most stocks in fact, majority of stocks are higher many up 5% or 10%. what about fixed income? 10-year treasury is 3.5% despite the focus on the fed for the last number of months, yields are where they were six months ago all this as the wall street journal reports that the federal reserve may start talking about so-called pauses and rate hikes at the meeting at the end of january. the article sets for a milder interest rate rise it is not a pivot, but pause china demand in oil is popping

the strategic petroleum sales are over and supply is coming down a bit crude oil is up over $82 natural gas up a little bit this morning. by the way, still remains depressed. the weather may be about to turn cold here in the new york area how about this a bonus mini rbi for you it is now 321 days without any measurable snowfall in new york city nobody is complaining, i don't think. that is one of the longest stretches without any measured snow ever in modern recorded history for new york city. it was 55 degrees in new jersey the other day. literally working in the yard in a long sleeve t-shirt in mid-january. let's get to silvana with hea headlines and another hit for

abbott labs with the baby formula situation. >> brian, the justice department is opening an investigation into abbott labs baby formula plant in michigan. that plant was shutdown due to contamination. abbott has not specified what aspect of the company is under doj scrutiny the u.s. government is launching a probe into amazon. the manhattan's office is looking to see if they misled lenders. amazon intends to appeal the citations and never misrepresented the safety record. the journal is reporting that janet yellen is shooting down one idea to keep the u.s. from reaching its debt limit she dismissed using an obscure

law allowing the minting of a $1 trillion coin to avoid default this has been floated by biden administration officials and some republicans the fed said this would not go along with such a plan, brian. >> the $1 trillion coin? the fact we are addressing it -- the fact we are addressing it -- janet yellen is addressing it. it has been around for a while crazy. silvana, thank you >> you got it. >> a big coin? silvana, thank you. now let's talk tech. it has been a hot year so far for many stocks. nasdaq on the three-week win streak up 3.5% so far this year this coming as or maybe because many big tech firms are laying off thousands of employees more than 55,000 layoffs so far announced in tech just this

month. look at that just this morning, maybe another, there are multiple reports that spotify is planning a around of layoffs. all of this with microsoft and ibm and tesla and intel set to report their numbers this week let's talk more about it with ian whittaker. ian, thanks for joining us two ways to look at the layoffs. very difficult for the families and everyone involved in the layoffs. number one is they are predicting the economy and their business to slow and they need to trim head count number two, maybe they o over-hired in the last few years and getting back to where they need to be how do you read it >> i think you got a combination of those factors that are coming through t. is probably no coincidence that the tech companies are cutting at the

same time. in both cases, they probably over-hired in terms of number of people who they actually hired during the past 18 months. i think also is shareholder pressure which is coming through to do something with margins last year with the tech companies which fell down sharply. a lot of the factor there was not only slowing revenue growth, but the fact of the dollar strength in terms of a lot of the costs for tech companies in dollars and you look at revenue. they tend to be around the world. they got impacted by that. i think a third factor you have here is the rise of interest rates that are coming through as well again, if you look at the situation, for many of the companies and probably the fringe projects or long-term projects, what works with the weighted average cost to capital

was 9% or 10%, the numbers did not stack up when the cost of capital went up to 14 or above for those working on non-core projects, were let go. >> i hear what you are saying about margins and currency translations one wonders what does laying off thousands of workers do to help the currency markets a slight because they weren't huge drops and currencies could turn around. i wonder if there is something bigger there, ian. >> no, i think there is obviously slowing fundamentals coming through as well if you look at the likes of meta and snap and what is happening in google. the revenue growth is slowing down they were coming off comparables on 2021 with the revenue growth numbers there. it is always exuberance in

market with the rate of growth to continue. obviously as well, there were more fundamental problems. meta and apple with the privacy changes and google and youtube there were questions about search now and microsoft which has been a very, very safe play and exposed and talking about whether clients are slowing down spending in terms of cloud so, all of these factors, business factors are coaling into the decisions as well what wyou have here are several factors at once. >> the interest rate story is one that is huge not just limited to technology, ian. if you are an oil and gas company or build a wind farm, a $12 million wind farm off the

coast of the uk or u.s. and you factor in the cost of capital and long-term risk adjustment for returns. things at 6% suddenly don't look very good when they look great at 2% to 3%. for technology companies like google who likes to take a shot in the dark, higher rates will pull back a lot on those moon shots. >> i think that is absolutely right. again, it comes back to the point of what may be a lower cost of capital and if it looks feasible over the high cost of capital coming through for companies like alphabet and meta and microsoft, they are already generating significant profits, then it is a factor think about all those technology companies that generate losses at the moment and really where the promise is the profits in

the future and terminal value of the long data streams coming through. the rise of interest rates is absolutely catastrophic. it is just really undercut the valuation story. as long as this environment remains, yes, as were you saying before, it sounds maybe the pause of fed hikes i think the sector is seeing relief you will get rebound if rates don't come down lower, then there is likely a limit to that. >> a pause is not the pivot, but interest rates could be high for a while and knock out the projects ian whittaker, thank you for joining us i appreciate it. coming up on "worldwide

exchange," your morning rbi and which states are seeing shopping popping and others where shoppers are staying home. as we head to break, some top trending stories right now president biden making a surprise video appearance on "saturday night live." he joined "white lotus" star aubrey plaza and "avatar" topping $2 billion at the box office. the third james cameron movie to gross $2 billion or more along with "titanic" and "avatar." and the best cities to buy a home this year is atlanta, raleigh, and dallas-fort worth

they all have strong job markets. median home prices they are all relatively warm and orwi ehae"s "wlddexcng iback in a moment ion refu can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds.

today's rbi is going deep into shopping and consumer spending and where the wallets may be coming out or staying in in america. before we break out the map,

let's talk about the macro that looks good compared to the last few years how do we know gravy analytics tracks data where people are going and maybe shopping this chart goes back two years it measures foot traffic to shops and malls. you see on the right, december showed the most foot traffic pop in two years it wasn't just december. also that above average trend in the months right before that you could see, of course, the covid-related dips that does not mean we know if people are spending money, but we know they are out and about at shops and malls that is a good thing unless, of course, they are overloading the credit cards let's be optimistic on monday. that is the macro. nationally pretty good analytics can dig into the state during the same time period. we can see the biggest changes

since january of 2021. a two-year look right there. we have a tie for the biggest pop. florida and nevada with a 37% jump in retail foot traffic over the past two years some months up some months down some months way up that was followed by california and arizona who actually both tied as well with a 26% jump warm weather is a good thing for people getting out at least in covid. that brings us to the flip side. the worst in america for retail foot traffic i'm not going to surprise any of you here you can name them without me saying them. i'll say them anyway new york, illinois and new jersey ice cold ing bring-- bringing up the rea. new york state had a 5% drop over the last two years on average. most of that in the depths of

the pandemic when virtually everything was shutdown. new york and illinois and new jersey just not had a retail foot traffic recovery like many other states by the way, that seems to be a larger trend for a lot of things recently random and hopefully interesting. on deck here on "worldwide exchange," greg branch is back and laying out the busy trading week ahead and he is toning down his optimistic outlook for the year we will ask him why next

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welcome back time for the "wex wrap up. six stories you may have missed as we close in on the 6:00 hour. shares of salesforce pop as elliott management has taken a stake in the company

the details of the deal are not known. and "rolling stone" announcing donald trump will not renew his agreement with truth social. and ken griffin's citadel raking in $16 billion in profits last year. the biggest by any hedge fund and surpasses the $15.5 billion made by john paulson back in the 2007 bet against the sub-prime mortgage market. brazil and argentina are talking about the creation of the common currency. leaders from both nations emphasizing the need for the greater economic integration. and goldman sachs is reducing the $59 billion exposure to investment over the next few years after returns weighed heavily on the bank earnings reports. and jpmorgan chase showing

the odds of recession are falling sharply across multiple markets. 7 of the 9 classes that goldman sachs tracks show less than 50% chance of recession this year. you have congress back in session this week after the martin luther king recess. earnings from baker hughes and synchrony out on tuesday and non manufacturing index and earnings from lockheed martin and microsoft reporting numbers. also on deck is the apple macbook laptops go on sale the senate judiciary committee will hold its hearing on p come pe -- competition on the ticketing industry have you looked at prices for

bruce springsteen's summer tour? on wednesday, you get weekly mortgage application and earnings from boeing and tesla let's bring in greg branch greg, i could read this forever. greg, thanks for joining us. what are you looking for this week >> the jobs number, probably, of everything you said. to see if it continues to defy the expectations that the fed had with the rate hiking program. one of the primary concerns, brian, is services inflation you talked about the boss tickets as a case in point remember, that is primarily driven by wage growth. wage growth is primarily driven by the fact we have an over

abundance of jobs. and beige book some companies are not getting go of workers. it changed my outlook a bit, brian. duration is elongated between fed action and the result they expect and this might last longer than we anticipate. particularly like me and you think it is 25 or 50 next week, there is 150 basis points behind that as well >> we got the meeting coming up at the january 31st to february 1st. the article stating they may be ready to talk about a pause. let's be clear a pause is not a pivot not like we go from 5% back down are you predicting -- the fed is hitting us over the head with higher rates for maybe years >> i don't disagree with that at

this point i think it is misguided to think about a pause at this juncture the fed had a target, i'll call it a target. they called it a forecast. i'll call it target of unemployment of 4.6% to bring wage growth in line to lead to deterioration in the services metr metric we saw in the last jobs number, it was we lbelow consensus. continuing claims. i don't see how we can consider a pause at this juncture when we have not seen a major contraction in the economy inflation levels are high. they are not 9%, but 6% cpi was on top of 6% the year before 7% the year before prices are unsustainably high.

as long as we are at 4% unemployment, i don't see how we conceive of a pause. >> what do we do you know, greg, people act like higher rates are a nasty thing getting 4% on a 10-year treasury risk free is not the end of the world. i hate to say it it is not sexy, but it iis comforc cc comf comforting >> that is right, brian. i talk to people who think it is the end of the world i remember when it was 11% interest rates it is not that we're at some draconian level of interest rates to bring the economy at a halt at 6% terminal rate or

higher we can't have free money forever. in terms of the market, we have nice stories to develop throughout the year. i think we will be in agreement when the fed is done toward the middle of the year and won't look to the fed and relevant data points for the ups and downs in the market any more we will focus on valuation as long as the budget or the debt ceiling debate doesn't derail us, estimates will come back to reasonable levels. >> greg branch, veritas financial. thank you very much. see you again soon that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. hope you have a great day. e u moow "squawk box" is next

good morning futures are flat dow is higher after that big surprise rally on friday did recession fears start waninging? we had them for 24 hours nasdaq with the focus on the next wave of quarterly results. a survey of economists say the rate hikes may be working which means we may need smaller ones and not as many. and salesforce is getting activists attention. it is monday, january 23rd "squawk box" begins right now from new york.