that's always the way it goes. you can never quite give it credit until you're already 15, 20% off the low, and that's why people say either don't try to time it or just be open-minded about which way it breaks next >> well, this time more than most could be harder to time because the signals that tell you what it might be doing we'll see you tomorrow see how it all shakes out. that does it for us. have a great evening "fast money" is now. right now on "fast," a big rally to start the week. chips, banks, financials, industrials, bitcoin, you name it, all heading higher what is the one word they would use to describe today's market action plus, wayfair blowing up, 25% today, an 80% this year. we'll go inside the street's big upgrades driving the surge and later, tesla powering higher the ev maker up roughly 40% on the lows it hit just two weeks ago. we'll break down who is driving the turnaround and how earnings will impact tesla's next move. i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money. we're live at the market site on

the desk tonight courtney garcia, dan nathan and jeff mills. we start off with another rally to kick off the week the dow jumping more than 3/4 of a percent. the s&p and nasdaq seeing bigger gangs, with the tech heavy nasdaq posting the highest close since december 2nd it is up 8.5%, the best start to a year since 2001. a couple names making massive rebounds, more than quadrupled from its march bottom. netflix doubled since pay, and moderna saying big comebacks from their 52-week low looking at a comeback, we wondered what is the one word that comes to mind when you're thinking about this rally today. dan nathan, what's your one word >> premature >> premature jeff mills >> it's got to be pivot. every time you see a rally for the past 12 or so months, it's been the pivot narrative that's been driving it.

>> courtney, your word >> consensus is my one word. >> steve >> expectations. >> so you guys on this side of the desk, to my right seem to have some overlap here in termses of expectations and consensus. so courtney, what do you mean by that >> when i say consensus, really what happens when you have the overall consensus, the markets are going to confound that and go the opposite way. all the end of last year pretty much every talking head said the markets are going to have a horrible first half and recover the second half. and now what's happening is the exact opposite once you expect that you're seeing companies are cutting their earnings they're already anticipating the recession that hasn't happened yet and it's really going to dull that impact that's why you're start seeing the the markets starting to recover. a lot of this, you're going to see this priced in and that sentiment has turned on a dime. >> expectations on the fed, expectations on companies, on earnings, on guidance, what are we're going to see so the street, as long as the guidance beats what the street is expecting, the market goes higher >> right, right, right

and it sort of dovetails in what you're seeing in terms of premature. >> yeah. >> the idea that everybody is expecting the same thing so you want to be out ahead of that expectation >> listen, i think we've been talking about this i think your point is a great one. we were talking about this in december. >> sure. >> something that was a bit of an outlier let's call it in the late summer, early fall became consensus. and there is no way that if everyone says the first half is going about the bad and the second half is going to be good, that's the way it's going to play i agree with everything you said i agree with the pivot aspect. i would say it's a bit premature. what's really different year-over-year to me is how much tighter financial conditions are, how much tighter or the liquidity backdrop of things are right now. and so if you think about where the s&p 500 is, relative to six months ago, it's kind of unchanged. so that has basically anticipated the change in consensus. the closer we are to a pivot and i guess the point i would say is the market is one thing what's going to happen in the economy is another thing the higher we run before we have what the fed is going to do and say, and before we get q4

earnings in 2023 guidance -- >> i really want to get to mr. mills. but the problem is what happens if the market has already discounted too much for the expectations on earnings that's where you get caught up in this -- the rally that is sort of blindsiding everyone that could actually last >> yeah. again, so did we just push it one quarter? are we going to have a retest of the october lows again, that was a somewhat of a consensus as we come off the october lows that we're going to come back. but it's not only about consensus. it's not only about positioning. it is a lot about what we're talking about liquidity. and buy the dip was the thing when liquidity was the really easy and the opposite way right now. i don't think that's going to change on a dime. >> i get the point financial conditions being a lot different, jeff mills. at the same time, companies have been battening down the hatches for months we've seen a head count reduction at this point. real belt tightening happening isn't corporate america a little

better prepared? there is a benefit to consensus, and that is the ability to prepare. >> yeah, but i think they're preparing because of the demand issues that are in front of them and i can that everybody was caught sort of flat-footed, a lot of these companies only focusing on growth and now all of the sudden they're forced to pivot away from that and more toward kind of being focused on margins and profitability and making sure that the businesses are ready for a slowdown that's coming and that's why when i look at market leadership, i don't see it being fundamentally driven right now. we talked about this on friday a little bit sort of high beta versus low beta the highfliers that are up so much this year, that gives me a little bit of a pause. it reminds me of the summer of 2022 where inflation comes in light. everybody thinks the fed is going pause or cut, and then we see that big run that's part of the problem for me and then i do go to earnings and i look at expectations and they do continue to weaken if you go back to the beginning

of the year, consensus was for what, 1.5% growth decline in earnings now expectations are for 3% decline in earnings. if you look out to the full year, expectations for growth are down to 3.5% i know people are anticipating this slowdown. but earnings expectations do continue to come down. that's why the multiple has gone from 16.5 to 7.5 and i just don't know if i want to hang my hat on multiple expansion right now for a sustained rally higher >> it really sounds like most of you, if not all of you are saying this rally that we've seen is unbuyable. courtney, what would you say to that >> i wouldn't say it's unbuyable, but i do think what's happening is it's your growth and risk assets that are leading the rally. and that i don't see as continuing i don't think you want to get caught into or go into that trade. you're seeing all your like tesla is doing really well, bitcoin. i don't see that lasting there are several pockets of the market that will continue to do well if you look at this year, your foreign companies are fantastic.

emerging markets are 9%. europe is up 8%. i do think there are hear areas you want to be in. it's the risk assets >> that has been consensus, that was the expectation. if you don't see an earnings recession and it's sort of shallow at best, this is a buyable rally. and i would say that we've already put in the buy. >> but when is the all clear, grasso if all of these hikes have a lag effect, what -- when you say you know what? we're through and we haven't seen an earnings recession. >> i think you have to wait until the big companies, the largest capitalization companies report before we say okay, it was an earnings recession, or this is manageable we have to wait there. it is too premature 20 do that yet. >> thank you for using my word but here is the one thing. >> no problem. my expectation is you'll use mine. >> fair enough i forgot yours already here is the thing. sentiment was so bad as we got to year end. think of what's happened here.

we had the vix melting we've had high yield rallying. we've had the ten-year yield come in pretty substantially there is so many different things that are really good ingredient for stock market valuations so when you get that turn of the year, you have people willing to take the sort of risk that they might not take later on in the year that's kind of what's again on here to me, i really think it comes down to your question about unbuyable or bible, or whatever it is. it real slay function of what is your time horizon here if you're trading, i don't think this is a great thing to chase right here but if you were trying to work in dollar cost average into things you want to spend years owning, i think that at any point when the sentiment gets really bad, that's where you start picking at some names. that's been a strategy we've been talking about for over a year now. >> jeff, the names you would pick at? >> so a couple of things there so i keep going back to this quality growth theme so i think there are areas of the market that have gotten beaten up enough where you can start to wade in

whether that's the metas of the world, the amazons of the world. even a microsoft, for example, you could still see some volatility in those names, but i think sooner than later, the market is going to pivot its mentality to we're really worried about inflation. we're really worried about interest rates compressing multiples. and we need to go find earnings wherever we can. so i think those stocks are actually going to surprise some people and come back into favor. i think you can barbell that with some more quote, unquote safety trades. whether that's a discount retailer, whether that's a stock like autozone or genuine parts they have themes where the consumer sort of still has to buy those products i think you want to sort of look in both of those areas for opportunities right now. >> all right our next guest says markets might be facing a little indigestion after its recent run. let's bring in laurie calvasina. good to see you. i'm go start off by asking what your one word is and i won't ask you for today, because you're a strategist. but the year today rally we've

seen so far, how would you characterize it? >> the word that jumps to mind is dominoes. i think this idea that we've priced in all the earnings pain into the broad market uniformly doesn't make a lot of sense to me i think it's been priced in one domino after another and some dominos have fallen the tech stocks, the growth stocks, small caps i think we worked earnings expectations down last year. you're seeing better performance there. you're seeing worse performance from areas like energy they have to take their lumps right now. we have to get some of those numbers down there is a messy, choppy market. but what makes sense to me, the dominos that fell last year, those are okay right now the dominos that are in the process of falling, that's what's not acting so well right now. >> you do make the point that we've seen a lot of earnings revisions lower for 2023 and that's probably a good thing for the market >> yeah, and i think we still have some wood to chop i don't think we're done there are still a few dominoes left to fall my number is way below consensus. we have analysis that shows this is the fastest earns downgrades.

we're all beating up on is sell side analysts, myself included, but they have been doing the work we've got a little more to go. >> how do you know when all the dominos have fallen? i posed this to grasso before. if the fed's rate hikes have lag effects, and we won't know necessarily, what is the stress test case? is it 5% for a year? and how do companies do and how earnings estimates at that point? how will we know >> it is going to be a show me story to some extent when we look historically, most of the times when we see earns fall, the downgrades are done by march or april we're really not going to know until we get to in next reporting season whether earnings are going to be surpassed in some instances. >> hey, lori, it's jeff mills. just a question a little bit about positioning. you mentioned small cap. maybe get into that a little bit more that's an interesting area is that view sort of predicated upon you want to be away from the top of the market, the mega

cap tech, things of that nature? >> i think for me, if we think about the small cap part of the market, it was pretty clear to me at the june lows last year that they were pricing in a recession already. if you look at small versus large performance, it was like manufacturing was already at 39, sort of close to typical troughs. the other thing is the earnings have been holding up a little better than large caps in terms of forward revisions because they haven't had the currency impacts. and we've also seen some areas like consumer discretionary or financials slightly easier stories to digest. regional banks are a lot more appealing than big cap investment banks which have a lot of hair from an international perspective and a trading perspective. but bottom line, the valuations are cheap. they priced in recession very, very early, and i think they're getting the benefit of inflows right now. we're seeing almost every sector in small cap outperforming its counterpart in large cap right now. >> i agree on the analyst side analysts are sort of getting pushed around. >> yeah. >> and they're trying to chase

the market right now so now they're upgrading everything, because they felt as if there was going to be an earnings recession when you model, do you look at any black swan events or potential for any black swan events >> so when i'm modeling the earnings forecast for the s&p, i've tried to put in conservative forecasts, things that are reasonable. so we've got margin contraction where sale side numbers had kind of flattish margins. we've got gdp that is bumping along slightly negative. we've stepped up our interest expense assumptions assuming companies are going to have a tough time with some of the debt burdens given the rising rate environment. i'm not sure all that is baked in we may end up being too conservative i wouldn't quite say they're black swans, but it does allow us a construct v way to think about multiples and whether or not the market lows have made sense. >> lori, thanks for coming in. good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> so 199 in s&p earnings. the consensus is still up there at 225 we know there are very prominent strategists other than lori. so at some point we're going to

be really wrong about that companies are going to confirm, right, if they reaffirm 2023 guidance and don't guide down and analysts aren't encouraged to get in front of that, then that's going to be the real thing. and i think lori just said this, at some point by march or april, we're actually going to know what that consensus looks like >> right. >> it's not going to line up where you think the markets should be trading either i guess my only point is if over the next few weeks we start thinking that s&p earnings are going to start trending down towards her number, at some point the stock market has to come in right now. trading at about 17 times, that's not how bear markets end, trading at the ten-year average multiple of the s&p 500. >> and i think that's a really good point she made some points in here which i thought was fascinating where sees this year of 2022-2023 being similar to 2002-2003. this is where we got the period where all of your growth companies had these head fakes, where they started to make a lot of runs. but that was before the tech bubble burst it took about a decade for the things to recover after the

valuations got so high again, things outperformed, things like international that setup is already happening this year, which i think is kind of fascinating. it will be interesting to watch that. coming up, media starts dripping higher on the heels of netflix. will the stream higher continue? details ahead. plus, another trade to the table. shares of wear way fair going wild we're lifting the curtain on this one when "fast money" returns. another busy day? of course, you're a cio in 2023. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business, with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want... your team, ours or a mix of both... with the nation's largest ip converged network, from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities™. my dad was a hard worker.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of wayfair topping the charts, 26%, its best day since november jp morgan, bank of america all out with positive notes on the online home furnishing company boosting the name to a buy stock has been in melt-up mode rallying a whopping 80% this year, but still down 80% from the 2021 highs do you add this time to your shopping cart? you know, you might be quick to jump and say wayfair is part of a trash rallyor something like that but these are analyst upgrades that are really on the expectations that margin improvement will be faster than expected free cash flow will improve

faster than expected, jeff mills. this sounds like a fundamentals story. >> i was about to say it's part of a trash rally i don't know maybe i can't say that anymore. >> that's why i went to you. i knew you would laugh at that >> yeah. but i did go back and actually look, because i was curious. so just some correlation data for you. and it has been part of this high beta rally, at least in my estimation it has a 0.96 correlation with arc over the past 12 months and only a 4.2 correlation with the s&p 500. so i think there is at least something to 245 but to steve's point earlier, i think you have a lot of these analysts playing catch-up here look, i don't disagree with the reports. i think running leaner, rationalizing the cost structure relative to the demand that coming down the pike, i agree with that. estimates weren't talking about being profitable out until 2026. so all of this helps but if you look at all the price targets, they're what, between 60 and $65 this is not a call for a massive

move in the stock from here. again, it's up over 100% since october. so i wouldn't necessarily be chasing it here. there are plenty of macro headwinds. this massive pull forward in demand, continuing weakness in housing, at least in my estimation that's my take on it, at least as we stand here right now >> there are so many cube shells and throw pillows you need out there in this world, dan. >> when i look at a story like 24 and see 33% of the flow chart, what is it that so much capital is committed against a story like this. so when you see a move like, this i do think it's important to know, we're going to continue and courtney, you said this before it reminds us of some of the rallies. i think you open the show by saying this is the biggest gain in the nasdaq since 2001 you mentioned '02 and '03. i remember days like this. it doesn't mean they're investable, but they're great trading vehicles when you see a stock that's bombed out like that, i think you want to dig a little deeper. >> i think what i see when i look at this story is how much

wall street is really valuing cost cutting right now i think that is so important that's really a big part of the story. they're cutting about 25% of their sales excluding merchandise. and that i think is a big thing of what people are liking. they're liking that in the technology companies as they're cutting costs. that is what people are going to continue to want to see. wayfair aside, i think that's going to be the bigger theme right now. >> right >> it's all about cost-cutting and it's all about layoffs if you look at where this rally really started in earnest, it was the mega cap tech companies that started to lay people off and get deeper and deeper down that hole of layoffs, and they're rewarded with higher stock prices way too premature to be buying wayfair off of this. >> that's a good word. >> are you paying him tonight? i've never seen that level of agreement between you two. it's unsetting actually. >> it is a little unsettling for me >> we're coalescing around that word >> that would have been a great word too >> maybe next time we play that game all right. there is a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next

>> media movers. streaming stocks heading higher. as investors binge on netflix results. so is the group still worth watching plus, tesla trading all charged up shares surging as wall street and retail traders plug in so is the stock's electric slide nearing an end you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. to design solutions to help you manage payroll, benefits, and hr today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪ (vo) this is more than just a building. so you can have more success it's billion-dollar views. perfectly located. an inspiration. and enough space to start an empire. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space. i'm so glad we did this.

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welcome back to "fast money. media stocks streaming higher with netflix and paramount leading the way, each up more than 4%. the group on a tear since netflix's better than expected earnings last thursday

since the start of the year these stocks have also outperformed the averages. here to break down the rebound, our own julia boorstin julia? >> that's right. these stocks have had a great start to the year after underperforming the market last year today media stocks and streamers are far outperforming the market, continuing, as you mentioned, on friday's gains following netflix's better than expected subscriber growth netflix shares gaining about 4.5% today to end the day at around $360, just under that bolstered by an argus note that raises price target on the stock to $390. argus writing, quote, while the company is experiencing a difficult period amid intense competition and economic headwinds, it remains the anchor tenant for consumers in video streaming. other media stocks also outperforming the market today take a look at paramount global. those shares up over 4% after jp morgan wrote they expect paramount plus to report record net editions when they report

earnings, lsd saying that warner brothers' discovery should gain one million direct to consumer subscribers this quarter driven by better turn and engagement. that helping warner brothers shares gain nearly 4%. meanwhile, we have to point out that fox shares are up 3.5% today. disney shares up over 2% comcast shares up 2.25 melissa? >> comcast is the parent company of our network julia, thank you julia boorstin the question i was fix kpatd on after netflix, do the results make other streamers look worse or give them hope? it seems like they've given them home at this point, if you take a look at the performances since those earnings came out. >> no doubt about it again, if we're expecting earnings declines, at some point, a lot of these companies really economically sensitive. i would expect to see declines for 2023 earnings here like disney in particular. the other one i would say, think about these debt loads and again, one of the bear cases on disney, all that debt they

took on to make the acquisitions that they have over the last few years. a lot of that is going to be rolling, resetting at much higher rates so to me, i think that's probably the next shoe to drop in some of these media names that have a lot of debt. and i really thought maybe getting a little too cute that disney would test that prepeople or that people low around 80 when the stock was around 90, we know that bob iger came back and here it is off to the races. i think a sober earnings call and guidance will be the thing to have the stock maybe on its way back to 90 in the near future. >> i think technically disney around that 85 where you're talking than level was really textbook for a bounce higher, and then it becomes $100 is the barometer for success or failure. trading at 105 and change right now. thing thing could really rally back to 120, 130 >> oh. >> you have to remember, you have the parks opening up. recession. i get it there is a counterbalance but this can never -- my big point about why should trade as low as the pandemic is you still

have 25 billion that's coming in from park revenue. >> right. >> that's not going to zero again. it was zero during the pandemic. >> the ankle of the streaming service in terms of spin and this is what interests me about this okay let's say all these streaming stocks add subscribers along the lines of a netflix where things are better chan expected spending on content is going to be rationalized very, very much so in the next year or so. so how good is that content going to be to hold on to these people who might be thinking about cutting back because of a recession? >> they think that that's going to be key here its content that's bringing the subscribers. i think this was really positive to see netflix's recent numbers. it is because they've had a lot of content come out, and that's going to bring people on to the platform but their cost is going to have the stay high. that's for them and all the other subscribers. the war is not going to end because you can cancel one subscription and good to another very easily. i think unfortunately they're all of these netflix still trades about 30 times next year's everything it still seems very expensive to

me it just had a good earnings coming out here, yu but i don't know if i can see that continuing moving forward. >> jeff, where are you on disney these days >> i mention this a number of times. and it all comes down to profitability of streaming that's probably why the stock has had a little bit of a run post netflix you got the results from the ad tier that was really key with disney pushing in that direction. it is all about driving that profitability. and i also think, and i mentioned this, when we talked about streaming last time. but spending is still 13% above the precovid trend not the precovid level, but the precovid trend you're going to have people looking to rationalize subscriptions. i think it is sort of the quote, unquote the blue chip streamer, whether it is disney or netflix that are going to benefit from that they're looking for cheaper options. if they go to the ad-based there is a higher revenue per user, it would serve to benefit the likes of disney, netflix expectations were really low for

disney, down around 80 bucks i think they're probably just about right at the price we're at right now >> how many subscriptions do you have, dan? >> a lot. >> is it nine or ten >> several times what you're spending on cable. that's the problem. >> here is the one point i'll make about some of these, netflix and even disney. now they're competing against these huge platform companies. and apple, and look at the success. tim timothee chalamet. >> come on. >> i don't know who that is. >> apple can spend untold amount of money but sooner or later it is an issue for some smaller companies. coming up, technicals could be pointing to some charged up trading. the chart master joins us to lay out his call ahead of the results. before that, we're talking tesla's big jump why analysts are staying plugged into the name despite its rough year will the electric slide continue, or is a u-turn in the works? or on that when "fast money" returns. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere.

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stocks kicking off the week in the green as investors brace for a busy week of earnings, as well as next week's fed decision. the dow jumping more than 250 point, the nasdaq up more than 1% the nasdaq leading 2%. amd, western digital and nvidia all up more in today's session the energy sitting out like lsb, conoco and occi, all closing out in the red tesla surging almost 8% today, making it one of the top three performers in the s&p 500. the stock now up more than 40% from its 52-week lows just over two weeks ago. still, the stock has been under pressure over the past year. but retail traders, they seem to see the pullback as an opportunity to buy according to "the wall street journal," traders have piled more money into tesla shares in the last six months than in the five years before that net buys hit a record earlier this month for more let's bring in gene munster, managing partner at deep water asset management. from the notes it sounds like

you think tesla stock hasn't seen the worst of it, that will be better entry points. >> i do believe so, melissa. just to put some perspective around this, this earnings period is an opportunity, a rare opportunity where tesla needs to get everyone on the same page. i'm still optimistic that this company is undervalued over the long-term. but let's talk about wednesday initially. there is the demand piece and the profitability piece. on the demand side, we know that the price cut on the all important model, 30% price cut with the addition of the price cut has stoked demand. there is some very primitive tools we can use to look at how much of the demand has been stoked but if you look at google trends, for example, search traffic up double from where it was a week ago model 3 is up 50%. and you look at the other ev makers, and they're all going down so that is an indication that demand is good retail investors are picking up on that. also, the lead times

they've basically been extend out an additional month and a half over the past week. that's also been picked up part of this 8% move is anticipation, optimism that the 30% increase, decrease in that model is going to have an outsized impact on volume. i expect that to be true but there is one piece that we don't know as well and this is to get everyone on the same page. to finish the thought, their out of growth margins 27% in the september quarter. i expect them to give guidance somewhere between 15 and 20% for 2023 and that's thepiece that i think will cause a dip in shares on wednesday >> so, gene, in theory, we should know all this we know that the margins will have to come down because of these price cuts that is just math, even if they're selling more cars. so why wouldn't that be factored into the stock now even with this run-up? do you think that maybe it's not

factored in enough >> well, there is a couple of reasons. one is that volume piece, there is -- let me take a step back. i think retail is having an impact on tesla share here is. i think there is an emotional side that plays into that. and i think that one of the emotional pieces is as you think someone who is optimistic about this, maybe a little too optimistic in the near term would say that the volume is going to create economies of scale that will basically support margins. simply i think making the margins go down maybe not as much as i believe they'll go down that's one piece to it another piece where this is getting people on the same page. the component supply, the component cost environment has been starting to get more favorable towards tesla. but we don't know to what extent that is. i just do the simple math. as if the average discount across the board, across all of their vehicles, if you weight it by volume, is close to 15 to 20%.

and that is a lot of that comes from the profit. but melissa, i think that's the reason why i think you see some of this move here is that you can kind of build a case where it's not going to be as bad as what i'm predicting. >> so, gene, when you look at the stock and it traded down about august 2020 level, is that -- did that have more to do with musk's personality being divisive or actually fundamentals in the stock? i'm long the stock, but i do not want to go into earnings i agree with you i don't want to go into earnings long, so i'll take a look at the fact but the idea that it could upside surprise versus downside surprise, i'mering on the downside surprise. it seems like that's where you are too. >> yeah, i'm on that again, big believer in this. i don't want my optimism around the long-term to change. and i could get this wrong and it could be up 10%, but ultimately, i'd still be positive what has impacted it over the

last or really pushed it lower was of course concern about demand and then they put the hammer down on the pricing, and that just kind of gave confirmation that's why you saw that big dip. so still believe ultimately they're making the right decision i would say this when you pull t all this togeth, i think they're going to put other car companies in a tight position in 2023 and 2024. so steve, don't mean to give a mixed message there. i think this is still a great company. i think that we just got to get everybody on the right page what the profit profile looks like. because that's been a big part of the rise of tesla shares over the past three years is just this really impressive gross margin >> gene, thanks for your thoughts appreciate it. gene muncie of deepwater asset management >> thank you. >> note the firm change. jeff, when it comes to the retail investigators, it's amazing what they have driven in terms of tesla shares, knowing

that there are things that tesla has done, namely the price cuts that will impact profitability >> yeah. i think there are a couple of things going on relative to that so first, if you go to the end of last year, i was reading something earlier today there was the biggest retail outflow on record from tesla stock so i think there was something going on there with tax law selling. and there is a possibility that what we're seeing now is some reversal of that and the stock was also, what, 80 or 90% below the 200 day you have sort of reversal of tax laws selling you have an oversold position. you get this big move. we flag that level of 155. carter was looking at the charts on friday. we're just about there so i'm sort of in the camp that you go into earnings and you potentially get a downside surprise just because you've seen a lot of these good things push the stock higher to a potential point of resistance already. >> all right well, tesla seeing some huge actions as options ahead of the

earnings report. mike khouw joins us to break it down mike >> so tesla was the busiest single stock option, although that's not unusual it has been every single day of the year so far. right now the options market is implying a move of about 9% by the end of the week. bullish bets outpace bearish one. it's interesting what you're saying about retail versus institutional. the most active contract were the weekly 140 strike calls. we saw close to 70,000 of those sell for about $6.80 the average trade size was just four contracts by contrast, the single biggest trade we saw was actually a purchase of over 5,000 of the 131 puts that clearly was an institutional bet. there seems to be some divergence in the options market there. >> very interesting. mike, thank you. mike khouw for more "options action," tune in to the full show friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, credit card technicals the chart master has a big call and payment stocks ahead of earnings the names and levels he is watching next. and the activist attention

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welcome back to "fast money. visa and mastercard set to report earnings later this week. the pair of payment giants off to a strong start in 2023, beating the s&p with visa up more than 7% mastercard nearly 9% and the chart master sees more positive performance ahead let's bring in carter worth at worth charting for more. carter, what are you looking at? >> you bet before getting to the charts, of course, it's always curious, how does one figure on these two are they consumer finance companies like capital one and discover and american express? not really should they compare them to retailers, because after all people use these cards when they're shopping it technology? they are in fact in the technology sector. number four and five in the actual 500 tech sector but what we know is they act well, as the old time technical expression goes. let's look at the charts so we have two ways to look at this this is simply a comparative chart, three lines you can see, of course, these stocks have been laggards over the past two to three years relative to the s&p.

and yet their fortunes are reversing. so rather than doing it that way, what if we hold the s&p as a constant if you look at the next chart, what that does is that exposes the relative performance has now been going on for the better part of 12 months, which is to say when those two lines are going up relative to that flat green line which is the s&p, that is the definition of relative strength. thing is more to come. let's look at the charts themselves i think we have one of each. and to my eye, that is exhibiting all the things we want you're looking at mastercard we can flip it to visa you'll see they're the same chart, as one would expect, and they both are judged headed higher consider this. over the past three months, they're up 15 and 20% respectfully again, visa and mastercard where is the xly it's down 5, the consumer sector where is xlk, the tech sector? it's up 5. consumer finance all lagging however you want to characterize these two big names, i think

their performance, their relative performance is important, itemintelling and lit continue. >> carter, thank you some would make the case it's benefitting from increased travel, which we definitely see again, dan. >> no doubt about it we were doing "options action" at 5:30. >> that was a fantastic show by the way. >> still on air, guy. >> we talked about american express and we talked about their exposure to travel also, a lot of these layoffs that we're seeing in corporate america. these are high-end consumer discretionary. carter makes a great point, though, on where these guys are focused and where they're not. right now considering what we might be facing is a recession they just don't have the credit risks that american express does but they do have the potential for a slowdown if there was from a processing standpoint. but again, they look pretty good technically. >> mills, where do you stand on this >> i thought carter made an interesting point, what is this

stock? i always look at things ism, chart the relative performance against the s&p, just to see if stocks move cyclically and you would think that this one would be as cyclical as it comes. it turns out it's really not and it's also decisively kind of broken above that downtrend, which so much of the market is contending with. you combine that with high free cash flow margins, that sort of quality characteristic that i keep talking about mills, you mentioned it. the 14% revenue exposure to china tied to travel and other things relative to the consumer there. i think there could be more upside here. >> it doesn't -- visa and mastercard don't care if you're spending money on paper towels or handbags. i mean, that's the fact of the matter so things cost more money, if they process that transaction, it's still a benefit to them, courtney. >> it's a good point and we are still seeing right now money market levels just hit above what they were in 2020 people still have a lot of cash. they are still spending, which will benefit them. i like visa. they do have a proven track

record of keeping their costs low and protecting their earnings i think that's going to be really important in an environment like we're in right now. >> if you look at sofi up 27% month to date. and affirm up 6 to 7%, so take this and elongate it a little bit. these outperformed visa and mastercard early, then it flipped. and now we're getting that bid back in. these have been decimated now. you still see those bid coming in to those names? coming up, microsoft on deck the titan on deck to report tomorrow will the results make a power point to investors the outlook when "ston" tus.fa mey what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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welcome back to "fast money. a big shake-up could be brewing at salesforce. the cloud stock jumping on news elliott management is in talks to take a multibillion stake in the company. it's been an eventful few months at salesforce. earlier in the month the company announced it was laying off 10% of its staff and in november sedco ceo brett taylor was leaving the company elliott is known for its activism and often seeks board representation in the battles it picks. jeff, what do you think is going on here? >> yeah, this is actually a stock we bought multiple times

over the past 12 months. we definitely like the long-term prospects. and it's sort of a theme on the show talking about cost cutting, reducing the labor force, and i think with a stock like salesforce, it was really important, because they had a margin profile that was below peers. so i think bringing down those costs, boosting those margins, that's very important for the stock, particularly in this kind of a market. and look, a slowdown is going to affect their sales cycle there is no doubt about it but the product, i think the revenue associated with the subscriptions that they have, it's fairly sticky at this price level, i do think you're fairly well protected i think there is some nice upside if you hold the stock for, say, 12 to 24 months. >> let's stick with tech we start with microsoft after the bell tomorrow, the stock ticking higher today after making it official its multibillion investment in chat gtp. it announced it would be cutting 10,000 jobs. now we know it's happening

chatgpt. >> getting a lot of news out before the print er investigators last quarter were concerned about the deceleration in windows and azure. and again, i can't imagine that was just a one quarter sort of thing. so to me, the stock has been between what, 245 and 220 to the downside here we are kind of the mid point. i think there is probably more demand issues that are going to come out over the next quarter or so. i'm not sure i'd be chasing this one here, but i do like what they're doing with open ai it really does set a path for them that it's not too different than what sati did ten years ago setting the path for the cloud this makes sense. >> i would agree or i wouldn't be chasing this here i do think they probably will some benefits like what's happening with fx will probably benefit them looking at some of their demand like pc demand specifically is probably going offset some of that so we'll have to see how earnings come out, but i would not be chasing this year. >> i think the sentiment around tech has really softened and

gotten a lot better recently, and really quick so when we first started out trading markets, when i first started out on the floor, it would take weeks, months to digest those now everything is collapsed in days, and maybe a week so i think microsoft when you look at it, all tech is on a declining trend line for quite some time now. but i believe they're all rounding, forming base bottoms be careful, but i think the worst could be over in a lot of these things. >> i thought you were going say that we digest things in seconds or minutes, not weeks. >> well, it is like that but i didn't want to exaggerate so much to the other side of it. but you are right. you have baear markets that sometimes happen around noon and by close we're in a bear market. >> ight. completely different story jeff, crm or microsoft >> you know, into earnings, i think you can get a boost from microsoft here they haven't seen the run that a lot of other stocks have i think it's up, what, maybe 10% or so versus huge moves in other names. i do think that sentiment around

the cloud has been fairly negative and it's going to be all about the cloud. i actually think you get a little bit of a surprise and a pop for the stock. i think over more of a medium term horizon, i would be more inclined to own crm, but around earnings, you might get a little move here. up next, final trades. nothing, it really is something. as an expedia member, you can save up to 30% when you add a hotel to your flight. so you can have a bit more money, to do even less. what if you were a major transit system with billions of passengers taking millions of trips every year? you aren't about to let any cyberattacks slow you down. so you partner with ibm to build a security architecture to keep your data, network, and applications protected. now you can tackle threats

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24 hours left to vote for your favorite 2023 trader acronym. are you riding dan's short tesla trade or riding with courtney? you can pick your three favorites. head to cnbc.com/fast money. polls close at the end of our show tomorrow. you can vote more than once. you can vote often go at it. >> time for the final trade. jeff mills >> so general wineyou wine parts i think this is a good defensive name for when the rally eventually runs out of gas >> steve grasso? >> visa was my final trade on friday it's going to be mastercard today. hat tip to carter. >> courtney? >> freeport mcmoran.

this is on a china reopening china is more than half of copper demand. i think you can play this still. >> dan nathan? >> american express. >> thank you all for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job not just to entertain but teach. call me 800-743-cnbc tweet me @