ople guessing. and that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede these are the headlines. bond yields are lower after positive data is optimistic that the largest economy could skirt recession. germany's new defense minister says berlin maintains position on not sending leopard tanks to ukraine they would be an important asse

to help russia >> we must provide heavier and more advanced systems to ukraine. we must do it faster the qatar investment raises the stake in credit suisse as it looks to the east for the restructuring program. music streaming giant spotify sheds 6% of the work force. the latest to announce sweeping layoffs. the ceo tells us he needed to act decisively amid slowing growth we had quite a bit of pmi data coming out this morning in particularly now we are getting some eurozone pmi numbers that we will be looking toward the pmi number coming in at

50.7 the services number in the eurozone and smp flash at 50.7 coming out now the manufacturing number coming out at 48.8. that's for the eurozone area with the flash composite at 50.2 that is the number we have been looking at here. as i said, we have put out a bit with the pmi numbers that come out. certainly some mixed picture, but it does seem to be some return to growth particularly in january. when one moves to france, for example, french flash pmi did rise to 50.8 beating forecast in january. services and composite pmi came in lower than expected charlotte is here to help discuss this a bit more. a bit of a mixed reading with the german data.

sustained employment growth is an element that could help in the future with this number. i suppose there is a return to get to look to growth. >> it could be a soft landing in europe and france. there is a question when it comes to france. manufacturing is better be expected and now back on the expansion side of 50.8 as a first improvement since suggest on the manufacturing front. services still on the reduction side 49.2 on the contract side. 49.1 in december the downturn has continued in the first part of 2023 it remains modest. that is the positive message t. is demand driven with the eroding purchasing power for france in particular, energy

price cap at 4% last year has gone to 15% this year. it is is a household has to pay more for energy bills. that could have an impact on purchasing and tightening their belths belts in the coming months we saw the pension reform strikes last week. the public sector out there again with the pension reform presented by macron's government it was a success for the union the question is will this movement become something else in the coming weeks when it is debated in parliament in february there is another strike set on january 31st the question of the private sector or if students joined that could have an impact on the economy. there is really an issue with the movement and if it becomes a greater disruption to the economy. at the oment, the french

minister is forecasting just not for recession this year, but extended period of time of strikes and protests could derail that. >> the geopolitical tensions are the key question mark. as you said, things look to be headed in a positive way even if it is fairly slowly. you said those strikes how important and critical will those be to the economic development and continued growth of the french economy? will they look to themselves and say as the second biggest economy here, we need to find the solution to this as quickly as possible. >> that would be hugely important for the coming weeks if this movement and it was a big success on the pension reform on thursday, but that was just the public sector the question is will the private sector join in and whether students join in as well you think why students would get

involved that means it is a wider movement you could have several days of protests and strikes and that could impact the economy remember the movement when it was a weekend and weekend and weekend of disruption. that disrupted the economy there is really all eyes on the next day of strikes on january 31st it was a success last week for the unions how much leeway is the government ready to give and concessions to give? they gave concessions when they presented the reform they are determined to push through with the reform. it is a big test for macron's government and the unions as well >> very, very important. thank you for that great data that we will look out for with charlotte with the french pmi

numbers. composite number at 49.7 for the german one 49.0 is the one in france. that's the french composite pmi at 49.1 in december. let's move on to the germany flash pmi for january. it showed price pressure is easing the german economy is shy of growth january did mark the seventh straight month of contraction reading, but services were in expansion territory with the reading of 50.2 compared to a reuters forecast of 49.6 annette joins us for this discussion annette, that number bodes well. >> yes, exactly. that was a little bit of a surprise the service sector is holding up well in germany. that comes also in tandem and

most likely a rise of consumer climate. the consumer may be the message is looking through the high inflation numbers and see the light at the end of the tunnel at the same time, it is too early to declare victory we're seeing in contrary to big demand in the private sector going very high. the trade union for the service sector is calling for 15% higher wages across the country for example, the berlin airport currently today is not working at all because there is a strike ongoing. they want to have substantially higher wages i guess the second round effect could potentially be a burden on the service sector going forward in the country the manufacturing space, which is important for the german economy, is still not in

expansionary territory it climbed to 47.9 it is still high inflation still bottleneck with the supply chain. there is, according to the inst institute, there is improvement of the situation when it comes to the ply chain issues for many companies. the jury is still out with china. will china's supply chains be less vulnerable going forward? what i hear from the industry leaders is they will reorganize supply chains and it would be more expensive in the future to produce. clearly the supply chains before were chosen because they were cost efficient i guess the jury is still out. the institute is saying recession is not yet off the table for germany.

>> certainly not off the table yet. what we are getting is there is somewhat of a return to growth that will hopefully boost the market a little bit and be a self fulfilling prophecy across the eurozone let's check in on the market we are in positive territory even if it is slight we are seeing the likes of the tech shares move up today. we saw a fall in the telecom shares falling .10%. a bit of weakness, but overall a positsiitive tone to the market a further look at where we sit and what is moving .40% weaker for the ftse 100 on that front of the market the danish stocks is the biggest movers in both directions in the trading picture. a few stocks reported some of their earnings

we are getting .30% higher in france and especially on the back of the french pmi number which has been showing mixed signals. it is still moving higher in contractary territory. the same for germany as we noted a moment ago upward of a flat stance is what we are getting across the board. i did note the technology shares are the ones moving in the slightly positive territory with telecom losing to the others with oil and gas down .20% insurance really managing to gain a little bit today on the front with autos also picking up somewhat let's head to the european yield picture. bonds have been rising for a third day in a row yesterday those certainly were quite interesting to put a note on and have been fairly positive really

and moving in positive territory. that comes after ecb officials put on that sense they want to still fight inflation so you may see a few more interest rate hikes. madam lagarde speaking yesterday and saying the fight against inflation is not over. echoing the same sentiment in davos saying she will continue to fight inflation as much as possible saying we made it clear the ecb interest rates will have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive for now, yields are slightly off, but risen yesterday for a third day. martin beck is our chief economic adviser and joining us now as we unpack this and the news coming out this morning it has been a busy one this morning, martin. you can take your pick of stories to unravel more. you are seeing a return to

growth although slowly across the eurozone >> the mood is improving it is not surprising when you consider what happened to wholesale gas prices in the last month. they plunged it was the energy price shock that had the chief headwinds now facing with the economy. we face the prospect that energy bills for houses may start to fall back. that will help to drive inflation down faster than we previously expected. >> the meaning of all this, particularly for the uk economy, which is interesting to note in the pmi numbers coming up and as you point out the recession may still be deep, but not as long as anticipated let's give clarity to the audience >> i think if you think about fast recession in the 1990s or the financial crisis, they were

driven by domestic imbalance or investment of the private sector we are not seeing that this time the downturn of the uk is the consequence of the external shock. the rise in energy prices last year which was exacerbated by the russian invasion of ukraine. we are seeing that shock recede. gas price are falling. hopefully that shock was severe, but it won't be as long lasting as we were fearing a few months ago. >> does that recession in the eurozone slim down on the back of the pmi data offering some respite? >> i think it does you have to take the pmi with a pinch of salt. it is a measure of output, but driven by sentiment from responders i think the movement we have seen in the energy and gas prices in the general cost space

in the european and uk firms is improving. that raises hope that we may avoid a full-on recession. we are facing a weak period of economic growth. that contraction for two consecutive quarters which is defined as recession. >> as you put it, if we don't get the recession, it is sufficient to bringing optimism into the market. what are the risks to this optimism is it still the geopolitical tensions or the bond prices which have run too hot and could come off quite significantly >> there are risks the chief wants energy prices and the implications for the war in ukraine with the energy prices the risk of recession should be

averted completely we could see the opposite. we could see the conflict escalate and prices spike up in which case, recession is baked in across europe and the uk >> as you said, the energy prices being really the biggest issues to face out in that front. is there a possibility as you note of that soft landing still happening in europe when madam lagarde speaking yesterday and they will still fight inflation and 50 basis point hikes is the minimum. there could be another 50 basis point hike further in the cards. how do you come off the soft landing portion? is that still a possibility? >> it is a possibility we are expecting the bank of england to raise 50 basis point

next week. the prospect is inflation will fall back quickly. the bank of england is aware of that they won't want inflation to go too far below target they don't want to overtighten we could see it pause soon that means people with mortgaging are paying higher rates. paying at the 5% to 6% level is rekecedi receding the bank of england in particular might start to cut rates again. we could see rate reductions toward the end of the year >> good chatting thank you for the time i appreciate it this morning martin beck. the chief economic adviser at ey now german defense minister says there has been no new decision made on supplying

leopard battle tanks to ukraine. that is despite pressure to green light the move speaking at the press conference with the nato secretary-general this morning, he took office a few days ago, and said the country will act quickly if there is a positive decision on a government level nato secretary-general stated they need to add more military support to kyiv. >> we must provide heavy systems to ukraine we must do it faster therefore, i welcome our discussion today we discuss the issue of battle tanks. consul statations will continue. >> ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy has pledged change amid the biggest government

corruption scandal since the russia invasion. he said officials would be replaced at all levels and more oversight on assignments anti-corruption police detained the infrastructure minister on sunday for allegedly stealing over $400,000. the defense minister has been accused of overpaying suppliers. raf sanchez filed this report from ukraine >> reporter: some signs of progress on the question of getting battle tanks to ukraine. the governments of poland have asked permission to germany to send its stock of leopard ii tanks. the german made tanks and because they are made in germany, the government needs to give permission before poland and other countries can send them to ukraine. the polish government saying if germany does not give that permission, they are planning to send the tanks anyway.

the germans signaling they will not stand in the way it could still be weeks before those leopard ii tanks reach the frontlines in eastern ukraine where ukrainian officials say they are badly needed. there is a real sense of urgency in ukraine about getting the tanks in the field vladimir putin's forces are regrouping for a potential fresh offensive. possibly starting in the next couple weeks ukrainian member of parliament told us today that every day nato and the western allies delay in sending tanks is the day when ukrainians are dying unnecessarily. raf sanchez, nbc news, kharkiv, ukraine. and the latest the issues

with qatar increasing the stake in credit suisse we'll have more after the break. goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

welcome back the qatar investment authority

raised the stake in credit suisse to under 7% this makes it the second largest shareholder. this move means middle eastern investors control 20% of the credit suisse stock, including a reduction of stake in the embattled lender it has lost .75% of the value in the last year. geoff did speak to the ceo at davos and asked him what his message would be to harris associates as they sell down the stake in the lender. >> i can judge why now i say, we were making progress and executing. we certainly will have discussions. >> all right you had an opportunity there to tell them they were selling at the wrong point. >> not yet >> the plan is to be profitable

from 2024 onwards. that's what you said in october. is that still the plan is there any change from that? >> it is absolutely the plan the first quarter update is we are aware of what is expected for 2023 it is absolutely the plan. the plan is unchanged. logitech sales slumped in the third quarter as demand eased from the height of lockdown supply chain issues hit the american maker of mice controllers and web cams ab food reaffirms the financial outlook. the retailer said inflation has become less volatile and some commodity prices weakened, but pressures are significant. it is down 1% right now.

having lost 9% in the last year. coming up on the show, we take the look at the u.s. tech sector as it sees 100,000 jobs lost in the first three weeks of this year. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you have everything you need to sell online and in person. you can have your inventory, payments, and customers in sync across all the places you sell. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today.

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welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede these are your headlines this hour the eurozone bond yields edge lower as overall business activity returns to growth in january. flash pmi suggesting the eu may skirt a recession. germany'ses defense minister says it defends the position of not sending leopard tanks to ukraine. >> at this pivotal moment, we must provide heavier and advanced systems to ukraine and do it faster. the qatar investment

authority doubling the stake in credit suisse becoming the second largest backer as it looks to the middle east to tackle the radical restructuring program. and spotify shares sheds 6% of the work force. the latest tech titan announcing sweeping layoffs the ceo says he needed to act decisively amid slowing growth it has been a day for economic data out of the eurozone in piarticular. the flash pmi numbers being the one we brought out for you now looking at the uk. the january flash composite number coming in weaker than it

was in the month of december this is, of course, a january reading. 47.8 is the composite number for january. compared to 49 in the month of december on the manufacturing front, the uk flash manufacturing pmi coming in at 46.76 slight improvement on the december number of 45.3. when one looks at the services number, that number coming out at 48. a worse number from the december figure of 49.9 general sense of weakness across the board with the numbers indicating that the uk may indeed be in a state of weakness a state that may be looking toward that recession which is something that has been called by the central bank and some saying may be deep, but not run as long as some projected.

we spoke to martin beck, the adviser at ey. saying there may be risks, both positive and negative, to the forecast those really hinging around energy as well as house prices you can tell from the numbers, particularly the services number at 48 compared to 49.9 in december there is still weakness in the market picture 47.8 versus the 49 in the month of december as well. clearly a bit of weakness remaining with manufacturing as the one looking a little thbit higher. let's look at the big picture. a bit of red creeping into the market picture mostly flat. still looking for a bit of direction as we get consensus on the sense where the ecb is headed with the interest rate

hikes. christine lagarde, head of the ecb noted that the fight against inflation is not over. she will stay the course fighting it with more hikes on the way. whether those are 50 basis point hikes is the key question and how many is really important as well you can see general mixed market picture for now. trending to the negative are the pmi data coming out today. a return to growth for the most part, but still some weakness with all of the pmi numbers still sit in contraction territory. on to the board. there has been weakness across the dollar it is sitting on the back foot today with the euro still hovering around the nine-month highs for the most part. you see it is pretty much flat in today's picture dollar has given back gain against the yen.

130 is where we sit. down .30%. traders continuing to gauge the u.s. recession and the path of the federal reserve. the market pricing in a 25 basis point hike sp speaking of the u.s., the u.s. department of justice could sue google the over anti-trust laws today the tech giant maintains its dominance in the digital advertising space. the doj filed a lawsuit back in 2020 which is due to go to trial now in september still on the tech front, microsoft announcing a multibillion dollar investment in the chatgpt maker open ai it was reported to be as much as $10 billion. now this is the third phase of

the partnership with the companies with the investment in 2019 and 2021. karen did speak to microsoft president brad smith in davos and asked if he was aiding cyber criminals with tech like chatgpt and fishiphishing attacks. >> how could this be used for good and create challenges to some degree it is difficult to identify patterns in the today set. anyone who can have a massive data set can identify new ways to fight patterns. those in the tech sector should be ahead of everybody else among other things, identify vulnerabilities and address them i think we may find that it will become a more relevant topic as people are thinking about the

future of information. the influence and operations and people creating the disinformation and combating it as well. >> microsoft warned investors to brace for a gloomy second quarter report expect a single digit decline later today. analysts expecting a $2 billion jump of revenue. arjun joins us to unpack the numbers. arjun, these are the bellwether of the tech shares now considering they have the layoffs they are putting out about 10,000 jobs or 5% of the business they have gotten heavy into investment particularly on chatgpt as we spoken about is that the growth area that they will lose from with the job cuts in place? >> i think two interesting

points on the job cuts, microsoft laid off 10,000 people. that is just 5% of the work force. that says a little bit about how microsoft is seeing this this is very much trimming the fat, i think, over the boom years. you see heavy investment from tech companies across the board hiring trying to get ahead of the curve and find the next big things for the business. when those come off or a tougher macroeconomics job cuts, these things happen. the second thing is the job cuts do not signal microsoft is stepping back at all from investment and areas it feels will be big winners. under the ceo, he turned microsoft around over the years with the cloud computers this is not just about chatgpt,

but a recognition that he feels open ai is the company that will be key for the ambitions and going forward. on top of that, the inhouse applications chatgpt could be melted into the microsoft products, including cloud and microsoft teams and the bing search engine we don't know. we will see. a recognition from him that he thinks open ai is one of the world leaders here and justifies the massive investment even as the company begins to pivot business and be more disciplined on the cost front in terms of head count >> arjun, please stick around. we will chat about this more you can join us with this discussion we will have in a moment spotify and a swath of u.s. tech fi firms announcing layoffs in the

first three weeks of the year. the global sector specialist paddy flood joins us paddy, this is an interesting time as my colleague says, trimming the fat is happening here. during covid-19, we saw them run hard hiring left, right and center now we are getting to a point where it wasn't the right idea or they can'tstand it and this is normalization >> good morning. so i would say the head counts can be tackled in a couple of ways the first is the way you gave. the massive acceleration of hiring the last two years and in response to the slowdown with the firms across the industry and cutting costs is the prudent way to move forward. in other cases, there are businesses where over time there

have been cost conscious and investing for growth or cost for that reason, weak profit ability. so, in those scenarios, the cost cuts and layoffs are more fundamental and taken a step to profitability. it has been taken well by the market i think the final point to add on the job layoffs is the tech giants are laying off employees. tech layoffs across the board look like scary numbers. if they are in parts of the businesses that are structurally weaker in decline, that is less concerning than job cuts and higher growth areas of the business in microsoft's case, that is azure. >> this doesn't necessarily change too much with the world of innovation and growth then, paddy? generally it is a sense of $100

billion spent on an unknown future for the most part ai, metaverse and all being key elements that these tech companies have put money into. these job cuts focused on areas at are structurally more difficult. whereas the big tech companies are willing to put money and resources in areas where they see is the key growth opportunity going forward. i think microsoft investment in open ai is a clear example of that at the time they are cutting jobs and also looking to invest in the future >> paddy, it is arjun here i want your take on the tech earnings season here as you look across the board, you have seen the market really pare down earnings estimates as we look at the reports that

come in over the next few weeks from q4, the december quarter, are those estimates still too optimistic is there a chance many companies miss again and disappoint the market >> as ever, it depends on the companies in question. as we go into the result season. there have been lots of worries with microsoft with cloud computing and how customers will behave in the macro environment. we had a lot of stories about clients looking to bring up the cloud workloads and slower migration. there is a lot of ambiguity of the growth in the coming quarter and year it will be interesting to see what happens and how bad it is

in the next term >> how is the market sentiment toward big tech? is it a case of we know the q4 numbers and this quarter may be difficult, but the costs cut should feed through and help profitability and the turn around is that how people are thinking about it or is it caution going forward? >> i think there is a bit of caution going forward. people are looking at not just the next quarter, but what 2023 will hold and how i.t. and software investment will fare through the difficult macro period what is good to get a bit of clarity near term and the support will come through on that those questions will move beyond this quarter my view is it will be more difficult near term for

microsoft. the longer-term outlook is attractive given the growth rate of the year and low penetration of cloud computing and how to sustain double digit growth going forward. >> at the valuations, one is saying there is a lot of room here, paddy? one looks and says they are investing heavily. the growth is what they are looking for and in the areas they all want to get into. clearly there is still an up tick and growth in valuations. >> i think if we go back to a couple of weeks ago, he was on the radio in india talking about the growth rate of tech having a more difficult year or two beyond that he sees a very credible and long-terming growth story. i would buy into that argument there is a more difficult

near-term period companies that can weather and grow through the storm quite well and grow through the period and accelerate out of that have ample room to deliver. >> paddy, good chatting to you interesting conversation one we will be looking to as well we will get your thoughts on it as well in the future. paddy flood. specialist for technology at schroeders. another week with musk and fourth quarter results for tesla. the company has been cutting prices of the electric vehicles to bolster demand in the united states and europe and asia it comes as the tesla boss told the jury he was convinced he had the money to take the ev maker private. he is currently on trial over claims he defrauded investors in 2018 that he had the funds to secure the move. he had commitments from the saudi arabia public investment

fund which later pulled out of the deal a lawyer for the investors says there is no written evidence to support that claim and that showed the saudis wanted moring information. arjun, this story again, another one for elon musk to focus on. the focus isn't always on growing the entities of course, it is not just up to him, but the significance of leadership zoned in and focused on the businesses is really important. this is another thing he just has added to his list of things to deal with this was back in 2018. >> this is a huge issue for tesla investors. they are worried and concerned and elon musk is not putting his attention on to the crown jewel of his empire. that is tesla. particularly at a time where the macroeconomics back drop is a lot more difficult december deliver -- sorry,

fourth quarter deliveries for december for tesla missed expectations against the macro back drop. also there is intense competition in the ev markets. not only from startups, but from china. there hasn't been a new tesla model on the market for a while. other startups are throwing model ns into the market and yo see that tesla has to cut prices the price cuts are not a bad thing. i think tesla is playing a game. we'll take the short-term margin hit to increase share of the market and over the long term, that should help maintain leadership position it is getting harder and harder and investors want elon musk to take his attention away from twitter and lawsuit and back on tesla and figure out how to get the automaker back on the road

forward. >> very difficult. the thing that got him trouble here is the thing he bought. you speak about the competition in the asian front lowering of prices there doesn't necessarily mean that you are making a better quality. is that the price point and saying is this price point going to give us longevity in the market will this short-term hit mean leadership in the industry revenue might fall it might not necessarily we are waiting for china to pick up it is only just reopened it doesn't mean people have pent-up demand for evs. >> when it comes to tesla with pricing, they don't want to dilute the brand too much.

i like to compare apple to tesla. over the years, you don't see apple going into the ultra low end of the market. tesla needs to maintain that price and stay competitive that is a difficult balance. particularly in china where you see the startups coming in with competitive pricing and product continuing to do well and continue to improve. on the design front, look pretty good that is the delicate balance elon musk needs to strike with tesla. in short, you make the gains in the market share, without diluting your margin and your brand which could carry tesla forward in the future. >> if you compare apples with apples, you don't end up with a tesla. arjun, thank you good chatting with you coming up on the show, we take a look at the economic outlook for the u.s. as investors expect the fed to ease its rate hiking path we break it down next.

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welcome back fed officials are signaling they might slow the pace of tightening further at the upcoming meeting as the u.s. labor market continues to cool off and other indicators like wholesale prices and retail sales point to decline last week christopher waller points to a increase and lael brainard says a softer landing could help a restrictive level. it doesn't favor a shift to the monetary policy and he thinks the fed should stay the course >> the inflation dynamics are not very encouraging what has happened is inflation has moved from the good sector to the services sector that is much harder to contain i'm in the very, very small camp

who thinks they should not downshift to 25 basis points they should do 50. take advantage of the growth window we're in and they should take advantage of where the market is and try to tighten financial conditions i do think we still have an inflation issue. >> now european central bank president christine lagarde says the central bank will stay the course lagarde warned the ecb will quickly raise rates. on a speech on monday, lagarde said once interest rates reach restrictive levels, they will stay there as long as necessary. ecb policymakers appear split on future interest rate hikes on a 50 basis point increase which is widely expected next week the dutch and slovak governors are advocating for a bigger move

in march which president lagarde appears to agree with. the italian and greek counterparts say the central bank could benefit from a cautious approach. let's look at markets and how it reacted today data coming out early on we had the pmi numbers out of the likes of france, germany and uk the market is turning fairly negative across the board. the cac 40 is holding out resistance there firmly above the .70 mark. on to the european yield picture. it has been interesting of late. we noted that eurozone bond yields risen particularly over the last three days. now edging lower pmi data offering weakness to those numbers. we did see the french pmi number

coming out at 50.8 for manufacturing. composite number at 49.0 slight drop across the board german pmi number rising to 49.7 in the month of january. quick look at the dollar dollar weakness across the board. it is a fairly mixed picture at this point in time as well on to the futures. this is what it looks like in the u.s. we look to be headed for weakness it is a big earnings week. microsoft on deck and one we will be looking out for. tesla as well as johnson & johnson out this week. that's it for today's show i'm arabile gumede "worldwide exchange" is up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. in new york. here is your top "five@5." tech in control. bears shocked this year. investor attention turning to earnings in technology, google defending the layoffs at the all-hands meeting last night what some employees had to say about it ahead. some bad blood expected on capitol hill when lawmakers target livenation over the ticket fiasco from taylor swift. and elon mus