can see this is bull market action when you buy gifts and you don't run away at the first four% drop. we will see. it still to be proven. it's a two-way market. last year it was all just fleeing from this at the first store. >> big learning still to come. thank you. fast money begins now. right now, microsoft had a dismal loss. they ended the day in the green. event meeting will still come. lost googles hangover. stock keeps dropping. why the government's case could break through and later susie

orman is here. she will take the wraps off a new report showing how real the struggle is former american starting to save money. we are live with fast money. julie deal is our newest cnbc contributor. welcome. >> tesla has their earnings report. the call kicks off in just about 30 minutes. we are digging in on the numbers. >> you are correct. let's go through the numbers and the one metric we told everybody to watch that they did not achieve were expected. earnings came in it 119 per share they were expecting 1:13. year-over-year up 24.32 billion. that is a total. better than expectations. here's the metrics we have been talking about, gross auto market

, most expected to come in at 26.2% and 24.3% is where came in. that's the compression people have been talking about. it was over 29% in the fourth quarter of 2021. you really see the market compression there. it is the delivery guidance that is getting a lot of attention. the company expects to deliver 1.8 million vehicles this year. they delivered 1.31 million last year. do the math. it means they are expecting growth of 140%. 36 or 37% is 1.8 million and then they go on to say, we maintain our guidance of 50% annual average delivery growth. in other words, it may not be 50% every single year but over time that is what we expect the average to be. look at shares of tesla. the stock, if you look at it

the pressure is there. people are wondering if this margin compression is something you can look at and say okay, we expected this a little bit in the first quarter. there really going to have volume to celebrate as they cut prices or, is this a trend? can you see them moving toward profit margins and the gross auto market in the low 20%. that it is a far different story. >> they make a point to say that asp is half. operating margins improved to positive seven%. it is possible that we drop where they dropped prices and offer improvements. that is the thing that investors are concerned about. >> absolutely. and for good reason. can they raise prices down the road? yes. that's possible. everybody agrees in the ev market these prices, it's what

we might see in the future. you are going to see more competition which is likely going to pressure tesla and all automakers to bring down the price point. the average ev sold last year for 53 or $54,000. many of those high-end vehicles bring it up. the real growth is going to be $40,000-$45,000. if somebody comes in with a vehicle there there is heavy demand there. i think people are looking at tesla and saying okay, you cut the prices in order to make the incentives so that people will continue to want the model 3 and model y. what do we see down the road? they are concerned. we are watching this year-over year. >> yes. and we will get that on this

conference call. thank you. what you make of this quarter? >> you want to see that the company has the growth number. this is demand growth. asp and price cuts fuel more demand. i think that is why in the short run the maturity of this stock to do what it does after hours, it's a detriment to how much they have grown up. the volatility means there are different elements of this announcement is that investors could've gone after. looking at the big pitcher and understanding where production growth will be, i think the gross numbers are important. it comes down to how we assess the company. were not talking about non automotive revenues which are starting to have some material side to them. this is an auto company. it's called that when they are under pressure. tesla should be as well. stocks rallied 40% off that number we had on january 6. it

is surprising that it is holding. >> yes. i thought it was interesting. i'm wondering for the margin progression, how much of that is pressure on pricing. i think to the extent that it is cost of goods sold, i think they have an advantage there. they are at scale. so they are at scale now and i think they do it better than some other companies. we will see that elsewhere. we don't know how much of that is in the mix. they talked about that price tag after the quarters. >> yes. we are seeing the impact of that theoretically now and the u.s. price will be in the first quarter. >> i'm not sure where it's coming from. it is moving a little bit here. the trade was a short straddle going in. i never would've said

that before. >> we will see what he says on the call. >> julie? >> yes. i think it is interesting to note the gross margin and it is hard to keep track of everything. you have things that are not related and you have the cost increases in terms of materials. you also have cuts in asp in china that are rolling through. to me, i see increasing competition and relative competition. it is not people that just don't have cars that are nearly as good. they're quite good. there is incremental fear that everything is going on with elon and twitter has an impact on the brand and it is damaging the bread. i have a tesla and would not mind selling it. i think there is longer-term problems with this plan. i think overall, there will be a lot of pressure on pricing.

there competing against manufacturers who have scale and distribution. >> so you're talking about the legacy. >> and again, they seem to be focused on the automotive side of things. declining margins is something that is a one quarter thing? >> i think not. when you start that downward trajectory it is something that continues. the china story is mixed at best, if not challenge. they will probably have a supply glut in the united states. if you look at this as price to revenue, four times revenue. okay. maybe they deserve some type of premium. look at the other manufactures and gm traded less than one time revenue. i'm not suggesting it would go there. this stock has rallied 40% over

the last couple of months. it was nodded downward spiral. this is nothing to accelerated. >> okay. let's get to jean. he is with deep water. it's great to have you with us. you make the point that the operating margin number with credits, the numbers don't add up. can you explain? >> it's a bit of a mystery on a couple points. the two biggest questions are around margins and separately related to demand. let's start with margins and ev credits. 24.8% is the number that i think is accurate. separately i have seen other people who are close followers report 25.9%. either way, it is soft. it is

probably the most important take away. of course, the critical point on this topic of margins is what will the guidance be. tesla has an outlook section in their report and they talk about their margins. they will be higher than the automotive industry. the automotive industry is usually at 16% margin. last quarter it, in september they were 27%. we talked about 25. you can drive a truck through 17% and 25%. we need clarity on that. that will have a big impact on how the stock trades tomorrow. the second quick piece that i am trying to get the numbers to line up is they say in the outlook section that they will grow faster than 15% and end the year at eight point one vehicles. that's up 37% from last year.

usually it is pretty clear what happens. in this case i need a little bit more clarity. this could be a mistake on my end. i need more clarity. >> they say in the outlook section 1.8 million cars. could there -- does it make more sense mathematically if you're just talking about cars as opposed to vehicles, not counting crossovers? >> it could be. the differences between 30% and better than 50. that's 200,000 vehicles. a pretty wide gap. it's not even going to be close to that. i think they would also be considered cars. i wish i could give you a very clear answer about what makes sense but they should be guiding for a number of 2 million. i think demand has skyrocketed. ultimately, the street would

have 1.8 million. once the dust settles the margins are coming down. demand is going up. ultimately, the true -- this is probably going to end up being a little soft, tesla shares and be sideways over the next quarter until investors get a better sense of what the underlying growth is outside these price cuts. >> thank you for coming on today. what you think of cyber truck? what are your expectations. i know the timing is difficult to pin down. what are you hoping for? >> i hope they are accurate. they said that timing has been difficult. they didn't say in what section they expected to have it out this year. that's probably a few thousand. next year i suspect it will be 50,000 to maybe 100,000, well

below what ford is going to do. that's probably like 200,000. 2025 will be the breakout year for cyber trucks. >> i wanted to ask you. it goes to how investors should process various numbers. so let's say tesla says the margin will be higher then the others like 17 or 18%. that's low compared to what they went for the past. then you factor in 2 million vehicles. what do you focus on more? >> to get a deal on both. that's a reality. they have had growth and margin expansion. they also add language about how aggressive it is. they will probably will be there with their margins and then also model more of that 17 to 20% range. >> jean, thank you. we will talk to you after the

earning conference call kicks off in about 17 minutes. guy, your thoughts? >> well again, it's a margin story. jean said they better hope they see the demand on the back of these price cuts or they will have a real problem with excess inventory. driving the truck to where the market is now or where the oem is now, the legacy players at 16% and where they are, what i think tesla is saying is that they're going to trend down. the question you have to ask yourself is in that environment or this environment, with those margins is it worthy of the evaluation it gets. i personally don't think it is. >> and shares get a boost. chevrons board also authorized a share buyback. that stock has been basically flat.

40% now in the last 12 months. >> this is a story for chevron. it is the overall story for the sector. they are the leader in terms of debt paydown. there is a race to increase payout levels well north of 50% and increase the business. that is why this becomes mother are investable and why the waiting and s&p will go better. >> $75 billion. i guess that is 23%. the last time they did one of those i think was 25 billion. that was huge. this one is even huger. >> is a big buyback. >> yes. we have a news alert on meta-. they said in the statement these are to deter repeat offenses.

the this help? >> yes, they are all searching for relatives right now. elon has made it easy for people to fire employees and let people on the network that caused a lot of problems. i think when you think about what happened when twitter first band former president donald trump you had misinformation declined 40% overnight. so this is substantial because there is history here. what i do think it is important to note is that former president donald trump really needs facebook. it's an excellent platform for him to raise money. it kind of put them back in the news. i think it was interesting how they made this decision. they had a separate counsel that decided they wanted to push it back and then mark pushed it off to the side. i think it's interesting thinking about how they will make decisions going forward. >> okay. we will have action coming your

way. las vegas sands and ibm. alphabet continues its stronghold. how long will this hangover the stocks. we have the details when fast money returns. >> kick pain in the aspercreme.

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welcome back. earnings started with las vegas sands. a bigger than expected loss in the fourth quarter. travel restrictions wait on their results. >> why those shares turned around, and who cares about the last quarter. the first question we heard on the call was what will it take for you to break even? the answer was we are way past that. robert goldstein says they are positive and moving toward profit positive. the premium customer will lead the recovery and then in terms of volume and visitation sands is outperforming the market. in singapore they set new records. their work cost pressures around labor and inflation. they have high-value customers

coming in and they are spending. the first answer was what sent those shares positive in extended trading. >> yes. it's like they opened the floodgates and things changed immediate. >> if you look at the discount at lvs and wind and those of the key ones that have to gross gaming revenue was that a pre- pandemic level. we are at 15 to 20% of work gross revenue was before the pandemic. it doesn't have to happen tomorrow. companies are trading on an even dow level and there is an upside. singapore has been exciting. there is cash on the balance sheet. there is a valuation discount. >> is this right? 91? >> yes. based on what they have shown.

i don't think that is accurate. in fact, i would say it is trading at about 12 times were historically has been closer to 16. >> a negative pop coming in. the company is getting in outlook for 2023 and will cut 2500 jobs. >> yes. shares are fluctuating. we look at the results. it includes of redhead and consulting. to demand increased in december. much different than what we heard from microsoft. and now arbor christian talks about investments in ai and tools called large language of models. >> businesses can deploy this in a fraction of the time and resources. that is why we are investing

foundation models for our clients and have infused these capabilities across our portfolio. >> now chat is the best-known one. also the latest tech company to announce job cuts. the company says the cuts are connected to a spinoff of kendra hall and healthcare. >> okay. thank you. what did you think of the quarter? >> i thought it was decent. i don't own ibm. i thought it was a slow grower. it was a nice quarter. the evaluation is not overly expensive, i think it is a decent yield, close to five%. i still don't think there is not a company out there that couldn't lay off people. when you say ibm i don't think it's negative at all. i think it's a positive. there is not a big company out

there that doesn't have a job they could cut. if i owned it, i would definitely hang onto it. i'm not a buyer right here though. >> listen, the redhead deal saved their bacon. the integration is such that that is the driver here. evaluation, you can wrap your head around it. the good news is that you are seeing the best growth in about a decade. they are tarting to figure it out. i'm not concerned about layoffs. on the human side i am but in terms of the human business it does not move the needle. this is a stock that could surprise people through the year. i think you could own it. it's not a disaster. >> we are seeing so much. what does that mean? >> bacon is buying for that person because they want the bacon. >> i love bacon. >> you got us all hungry before dinnertime.

>> you don't go -- no. no you don't go to the supermarket hungry. that is a bad idea. you buy things you don't need. >> here is what is coming up next. >> shares unable to catch up with the rest of the market. investors are digesting the doj's later suit. could the impact be worse than expected? details her head. plus the first fed meeting of in borar and to the last few potsefe the decision. what you should watch for and what it might mean for the markets. you are watching fast money. my from the nasdaq market site in times square. we will be back right after this. >> ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪

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>> welcome back. take a look at chairs at alphabet, the stock could not rebound today. it down five% in the last two days. this decline comes after an antitrust lawsuit was filed yesterday. here is a official and what they had to say about the government's case. >> this will come down to emails and other evidence that they have been actively manipulating and the powers how uni access this internet. my guess is that we don't have the receipts from the justice department in terms of what they have. >> so could this be a hangover for alphabet like the one microsoft had for so many years. >> i am an asset dork so i did

read the report that the doj put out. i want to take a break from romance bottles. the language that the government is using is pretty powerful. they talk about the insidious use of technology in the trojan horse they planted and a lot of strong language. it is all tied to emails they have been able to uncover. they really make it seem like everyone at google is going to tamper with the ad market. most of us don't really understand how the ad market works. it is extremely complex. it's a great primer. if any of these receipts are good and valid, this will be problematic for google ads splitting up the most profitable part of their business would have major implications. >> they say in comparison to past lawsuits and

investigations, this one seems substantive. there is concern about this one this time around. what do you think? >> you are always concerned. when i think about the microsoft situation, it hangs over us for a while. we will see people will soon forget about this in the interim unless there is some real fireworks which could happen. the legislation is looking to do something and that is on the back burner. i think that google in the short term will be driven by next week. i don't think they will talk about this. i think it will be much more about earnings and how they are doing and how other businesses doing and more about cost- cutting. all of that will take precedence over this. this will hangover them for who knows how long. i'm guessing in the end they settle something. >> write. >> i think the key is where we

will start to see the earning revisions and where they settle over the next six months. you have seen the top line come in six to eight%. that is the story here. think about where google has gone over the past couple years in terms of the rate, you think about some of the dynamics in terms of separating different businesses, that has been important for the shares. to say it is qualitative, i think it keeps you locked in a range. it will come back to where we prices. google has always been the cheese biz. you've already seen a discount. it's pretty attractive. >> and the decline today, wasn't overhang from yesterday's news? was it concern about microsoft? >> microsoft had a lot to do with it.

the adsense world has been a dragon for a while. google is 38% off its all-time high. this is the fifth antitrust lawsuit in the last two and half years. at a certain point you have to fish or cut bait. there is either something they are not. there is dominance but just because it is dominant doesn't mean you're doing something wrong. i think it comes down to earnings next week. we talked about this evaluation that has been incorrect. short of a disaster next week i think it will be good. >> and we will count down to the last few data points before the fed meeting. susan o orman will join us. a major red flag she is seeing in savings rates and what you can do to bust the trends. don't go anywhere. we will be back in just a few minutes. >>

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welcome back. another check on the markets. stocks climbed back after steep losses and closed virtually flat. the dow gets a small game. well-off the low. check out the trading at microsoft. this jumped 4% after an

earnings report then went lower after guidance just after we went off the air. it was down 4.6%. the rest of the market was able to call back. shares of tesla are higher. the conference call is just kicking off about five minutes ago. we will bring you highlights as they come. treasury yields drop. inflation data will be later this week. it's countdown to the next rate position. rick santelli has the latest. something interesting happened today. the bank of canada is pausing. that gives investors hope here. >> yes. a conditional pause. let's keep in mind, we can contrast that with australia and the cpi which came out at 8.4%. so it was a give and take day

just like the market. if you look at an intraday chart of event you can see we made the yield right after the microsoft and opening of the stock market and that it began to rise and the bank of canada change the tone of the market and many thought we were on a similar path. >> when you add a second day into that chart what you will see is that if you watch the late session which was not one stock close, they trade a while longer. we settled. that is very key. if we consider the dollar index is paying close attention to the interest rates of based on the weakness in earnings, it closed at an eight month low. look at the vic. that says it all. that peaked out at about 11:00 eastern and then proceeded to close lower on the session.

tomorrow we have our first look at fourth quarter gdp. we need to pay attention to the price index. i'm thinking it will come in close to four%. remember the high watermark was nine% and fridays inflation data, michael is year-over-year deflator. that's what i think traders will pay attention to. much closer to four%. >> thank you. thank you. okay. what did you think of the turnaround today? >> extraordinary. you also think of the failure of stocks. yet microsoft gave some expectation to be reset. it was extraordinary. the movement related, we have seen these knee jerks out there. it gets back to leaving the fed or the bond market itself.

i go to the futures and i think at some point there being overly aggressive to get 35 basis points of cutting between july and december. that gives me concern about the market. that is why i think we have many phases as to what this is. we are not following the typical bear market script here. >> i don't know what contributed to this and what tim said which is a big difference between when the fed could reverse course. i agree with you. i don't think that will happen. that i also think that the phenomena is the expectation is shallow and quick. earnings might not come in great but look at it again next quarter. >> and the idea that we are going to be getting all these major companies reporting earnings, the guidance could

move the bond market. that is a new dynamic for earnings. >> yes. a conversation that is happening between earnings and the bond market. everyone is looking at the fact that the bond marker was not going to be transitory. there is a lot to be learned about what is going on. i agree there will be cuts happening in the back half of the year. that seems far-fetched unless there is a major problem in the economy in which case we have bigger problems to worry about. >> okay. who winds? higher for longer or what the bond market says? >> i think the fed winds. i believe they are trying to mess with this. they are choosing not to listen but they have been set back and i think they happened to be right. if you look below the surface

gasoline prices over the last couple of weeks are starting to go higher. some of these commodities are starting to go higher and grai , base metals are starting to go higher. i think they understand that if they signal a stopper or they cut for some on first season reason. it will make it that much more difficult to defeat. >> coming up, after the bell tomorrow. how they are playing this and the state of america's personal finances. what is top of mind for what is top of mind for consumer warning that could affect you. she will explain that to you when fast money returns. >> we help americans invest for their future. and help communities thrive.

>> a check on tesla shares, up half a%. musk is on the call. we have some headlines. what are they saying? >> melissa, he is saying demand is strongest in the company's history. he says production right now or demand is outpacing production by two times. this is part i'm trying to

decode that. 1.8 million vehicles. they still have not given a definite answer because they are still preparing remarks with the cfo. his commentary is that orders are outpacing demand. he also predicted the overall auto industry will contract in 2023. that would beg the question, is that 37 per% growth a good number if the industry contract. we don't have a full answer on that guidance. >> thank you. we will check back in. a survey says americans are unprepared for financial shock. 70% are unable to cover a $400 expense right now. that could have huge ripple effects across the economy. we are joined by expert susie orman, secure savings and the

publisher of that survey. it is great to see you. welcome to fast money. >> thank you. it is so true. i watch fast money all the time. everybody talks about the earnings. what you have to understand is that people don't have the money to buy things, eventually that will affect everybody and most of america today has absolutely no money if you look at it. >> it's amazing because i think the party line, the consensus of among economists and market watchers is that the consumer is in very good shape. flush with cash. you say no to all of that. the consumer is in much worse shape than how others portray it. >> i will tell you what i think is happening, they were so flush with caste during the pandemic they had no place to spend money. unemployment was giving them.

all kinds of stimulus checks. they didn't have to pay their mortgage, their rent, student loans and here we are now, a year or two later interest rates have improved. they can't afford the rent. they can't buy house. they can't buy eggs or car. they are living paycheck to paycheck. 74% of the people we surveyed our living paycheck to paycheck. so now there's bending down all the money they had in their savings account. they are using credit cards and can't pay it. look at repossessions of cars. the highest repossession of cars we have ever been out. eventually this will hit. >> we haven't seen the full effect of what that is doing with impacts on the economy. susie, people want to know, what you personally -- what you personally doing with your money right now. >> starting a while ago i got

out of that. i went to cash and almost 80% of my wealth is in municipal bonds and 3 to 6 month treasury bills. i kept them short-term. i have told everybody that is what they should buy don't go any more than six months out. i definitely would not go past june or july because i want to see what will happen with the crisis we are in. >> okay. i have to tell you, susie is a good investor. it's not surprising. >> yes because she watches fast money. >> i'm wondering, when you talk to -- i guess some are investors and some don't have

this cash. you see that they are afraid of the market now? how do you tell them to address that fear? >> here's the thing. if you can get 4.8% in the three month treasury and you are afraid of the market and you understand the market what is wrong about right now just being in treasury? those will have a lot of time on their side, in their 30s or 40s i am still a big believer in energy stocks. you may remember in march of 2020 i had everybody going into xle and energies box. i thought it was stupid. energy was down $-30 a barrel. i am still a big believer that energy is viable, great dividends. i have been having them go into get this.

there are all kinds of funds giving them information. i am not going to go into tech. top holdings are all tech. i am being really conservative with how i'm telling people to invest right now. i think that will change. >> i hope you'll join us in about four months to tell us what else we should be doing. it's great to speak with you. >> thank you. i will see you soon. come on down. always welcome. >> susie orman. >> what you make of her advice? >> i love susie. she is talking about unemployment rate at 3.5%. think outlooks if we get the five%.

i think that is what the fed is targeting. it's not a particularly rosy pitcher. she is looking at 30,000 feet. overlay that with what we have been talking about it makes you wonder the resilience of the market and where is it coming from at these levels. >> susie is always positive and constructive. that's why we love her. the part of the story that is actually very positive is the story she recommends about your money earning you something. the financial oppression has been pushing people out on the risk curve to get a return and people need to live on a fixed income. that is the glass half-full. it's an extraordinary time to be locking into longer terms. beyond six months, at least out

to two years there is meso comfort especially if you think the rates will collapse. you might miss out on some of that. it is a good time. >> coming up the options. that and more when fast money returns. >> you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ at adp, we use data-driven insights to design hr solutions to provide flexible pay options and greater workforce visibility today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪ (swords clashing) so you -had enough?e success -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.

>> welcome back.

intel reports tomorrow this could add fuel to the chip marker. >> yes. they are looking for a nine% move. that is sister about a five% move up or down. there could be a move coming. use all returns with his semi conductors on the year. the upside is in play and 1500 of the best 35 calls for $.15. that might not be exciting but we have a handful of these traits. we saw trades all the way out to september. the upside seems to be a player. 31 level? there is not a lot of resistance up to 40. >> okay. it's good to see you. turn into the full show tomorrow at 5:30.

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jean munns or has the latest. jean? >> melissa, the cfo said the gross margins are above 20% in 2023. 18 to 20%. that is a little bit of a pop to the stock here. >> guess. thank you. it is a moment everybody has been waiting for. we knew he was at 19% yesterday there was no way anybody else could catch up. the final trade time. let's go around the horn. julie? >>'s cw. >> guy? >> are you disappointed?

>> he said he has a large family. >> huge. >> i can't contain it. >> it's where you finish in the end. i think we will finish higher as well. >> what do you say? >> i my mansion -- mission is simple to make you money i'm here to level the plays field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so-call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. we can