you all for watching "power lunch. we will see you next week. >> and "closing bell" with sara eisen starts right now thank you, kelly, big name earnings from intel and american express pulling the market in opposite directions today, but the major averages have climbed throughout the session and are pacing for a solid week of gain. this is a make or braer hour for your money welcome to "closing bell," i'm sara eisen we are at the highs of the day right now, s&p 500 up almost three quarters of 1%, the dow up half a percent, about 166 points or so, most sectors are green. what's leading consumer discretionary, communication services, the reits are higher the nasdaq up 1.3% building on what is a strong week, up almost 5% for the nasdaq on the week adding to the gains this year, up 11.5% so far this year.

check out intel and american express, intel is getting pummeled after the huge miss, american express charging higher on an upbeat outlook much more throughout the show for you. also ahead this hour former federal reserve vice chair richard clarida will break down the key inflation numbers and next week's fed decision, what he expects the signal from fed chair powell to be. senior kmarkt commentator mike santoli has more at the market dashboard resilient, strong market with names like tesla leading what is the why? >> there's not much more you would ask of this market if you were looking for some kind of a rebound or signs that maybe the tone had changed what you've gotten this month and this week, sara. also a fourth straight friday in a row you have had strong gains. i noted that last week, good to know observing a pattern doesn't immediately undercut it. here we are, i think that the combination of cyclical

leadership, relief some some of the economic numbers, something compatible with a soft landing situation alongside tame bond yields and a return of risk appetite to some momentum like in the teslas of the world, that could eventually go too far, we could get a little gravity on the speculative stocks the next test 4100 td highs from late november, early december. we want to get a percent or two above that before you declare that that has been surmounted. you've kind of gone above that down trend line, this really does look like a decent bottoming pattern so far and if you have a routine 3% to 5% pull back it doesn't really take you back that far in time. that's always the key. take a look at american express, you mentioned, alongside the other consumer finance credit card companies that have really had these vertical moves in january. you see this one year chart there was a lot of erosion of confidence in these companies, people assume the economy was on the down swing, consumers were if a tiegd, you would start to

see credit losses pile up. all of them over the course of this month have come out with numbers reassuring allied financial, capital one, discover, card issuers on the higher end american express which is now basically flat on a one-year basis kind of surprising. >> so i mentioned the nasdaq year to date gains 11.5%. it's been very strong, s&p is up 6.5 or so percent and it's surprising everyone started the year thinking this was going to be tough, going to be recession if you look at some of these year to date gainers, lucid group up 100%. tesla, nvidia, airbnb, is it a signal that the market just thinks the fed is going to pause in cut and is more confident in that move because they went down on the other way >> i think that the idea that the fed is close to a pause is definitely the background music to all of this it's not all about that, it's definitely the recoil from having been beaten down so much, especially those value names you mentioned, and when it comes to -- you know, look, if you are

going up four weeks fwh a row and all of a sudden it seems like there's technical momentum in the market, it's not surprising people start grabbing for the fastest moving stocks where you can make the most back in a hurry you don't want that to go too far, maybe it already has, we don't know, but, yeah, i do think that the idea that all the things working against them last year might actually be turning into tail winds is in the air. >> arc innovation funds up 30% lucid making a crazy move today, we will talk about that later. that's part of the story there mike, thank you. mike santoli let's dig into the big move for intel, shares taking a hit after the company reported dismal fourth quarter results, off the worst levels of the day, they were down 10% or so. guidance for the next quarter comes in below expectations not just for investors but also the ceo. here is what he said earlier on tech check >> clearly the q4, you know, we e eeked out at the low end of guy, but the q1 numbers were well below our expectations

the big factor in q1 is the market shift what we've seen is customers carried a fair amount of inventory in q3 and q4 for the back to school and the holiday refresh. obviously as they come into the new year and the macro situation for their business, major inventory adjustments. we're selling into our customers well below their sellout rates in their businesses so it will be the biggest single quarter of inventory correction that we see in the marketplace literally in our history. >> joining us now emily hill from bauer stock capital partners and matt bryson from wedbush who cut his price starting tore intel down to $20. moumts is this company going to reset? >> i'm hoping this is the last time we've seen it from everyone this time around, it's not intel specific the difficult piece with intel right now is to tell exactly how much the down tick is them resetting and dealing with the same struggles the rest of their

peers are -- are dealing with versus how much of it is the broader industry where their customers, nvidia's customers, they all have too much inventory and have to work it do un. >> so you're saying there is a ripple effect here from what intel told us, it's not just intel specific and you expect the others to perform weaker as a result >> we've already seen it on the pc side at amd and nvidia, they told us this last quarter and intel is a bit in arrears in telling us this. i think the struggle with intel is specifically that they are a -- particularly on the data center tied side when we get to the end of this inventory projection it's how much is the share loss and the broader industry struggle. >> emily, you like this group. why do you like this group right now when as matt describes it and as intel described it the sector is in a bit of an

upheaval >> yeah, i think -- i think you need to be very selective in the semiconductors sector. the companies we like are companies like lamb research who are equipment manufacturers, actually their earnings came out in line with expectations. i think the intel earnings were definitely a surprise and i think it's more than just the semiconductors industry as a whole. you know, pat gelsinger warned everybody this was going to be a several year long turn around. i think part of the issue here is if you look at intel over the last year they've increased their capx expenditure substantially but they are just not getting traction i think they're losing some market share to the advanced micro devices of the world i would defer to matt on this because i'm not a semi-conductor analyst but that's just my impression yes, we still like the settlement conductor sector as well as you're willing to ride

the ups and downs of this volatile sector but you have to be selective. >> no question they've been losing share, that's been a big part of the intel story, matt. the ups and downs have to do with supply chain lately for the sector as well so much hand wringing over the shortage of chips during covid and now we have a glut how bad is it and how much longer do you see it lasting >> that's a great question, sara, and i think that's what everyone is struggling with. so certainly in the space it feels like a lot of the inventory has gotten worked out, in the pc space i think you will see it over the next couple quarters i think the larger question is really what data centers, they are -- it was a pretty sharp correction that we saw in q4 in terms of drops in spending at hyper scale, particularly memory disc drives and it's just unclear whether that's something

that picks back up the second half, whether we're going to have to wait until 2024 to see spending resume at the levels it was at before. >> all right guys, we have to leave it there. thank you very much for hitting intel and the semis for me emily and matt, good to see you. with the dow 200 points now, reaching new highs 51 minutes left of trading up next, more promising signs on the inflation front. new data showing the fed's preferred inflation measure rose at its slowest pace since 2023 we will ask richard clarida what it means for next week's important fed decision you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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the economic data today, december's core pce which the fed considers a key inflation gauge rising 4.4% from last year in december. that number coming in line with expectations, also marking as you can see its lowest annual rise since october 2021. this comes of course ahead of next week's fed decision on interest rates and joining me now in an exclusive interview is richard clarida. good to have you back, rich. welcome. >> hi, sara. >> so is the inflation moderating fast enough for you and for the fed? >> well, it's starting to. you know, we had nothing but bad news on inflation for my last year as vice chair and most of last year, but for the last several months, including today, inflation even on a core basis

is starting to come down you know, if you take the last three months and annual lies them it's the lowest rate of inflation in more than two years, under 3%. that's not far enough but it's definitely good progress and i'm sure the fed will take it going into next week's meeting. >> so if it's good progress, why does the fed have to keep raising rates? >> well, part of reason why inflation coming down is the fed's tightened financial conditions and they've indicated that they think they need to do some more. we think rates will end up at around 5%, but almost certainly hike 25 basis points next week to 475 and then at least one more in march, but if the data keep improving, they may rethink their notion of getting to 5.25 later this year, which is what they indicated in december >> so it's not that as far off with where the market is. >> no. >> i think we have the path of expectations for the fed funds futures, market expects them to keep raising, i think, until

june but then for rates to come down to 4.75 in october and down farther from that in january '24. is that off or are they just ahead of the fed >> no, i tell you, share ration that's a little bit of a misinterpretation, i think, in some of the data the fed's rate projections are really what they call their most likely scenario, whereas markets have to price in all outcomes better and worse i basically don't think there's that much difference now between the fed and where the markets are because there are some scenarios where the fed cuts some more and some less. so i actually don't think there's that much distance right now. >> so the whole notion of higher for longer, that raise rates all the way up and then stay high, is that a reality or you don't see that happening >> sara, that is what they're saying and they've also said they want to keep at it until the job is done. so, yes, i do think that once rates get up into that 5% range

that the committee is very inclined to hold them there for a while, certainly throughout, i think, most of this calendar year because that's what they think will be needed to make sure that inflation is reliably on a path to get back down to 2% the important thick to keep in mind, sara, though, is the projections also show that eventually they think a more normal level of interest rates is around 3%, maybe 2.5%, so i think as long as they keep that view, once the inflation numbers sustainably improve they will be easing at some point. >> right what about unemployment, if it gets worse every day there is another company announcing layoffs hasn't really showed up in the data but it will, don't you think, and the economy could worsen and we've got major debt servicing coming up here from the u.s. treasury. aren't all these problems for keeping rates very high for a very long time >> well, there is a lot to worry

about, but it's also a big problem if inflation gets out of hand and so i do think that the path that they've laid out makes sense to me. there is some rise in unemployment that likely will be required the fed itself has penciled in about a percentage point i think there's a lot of uncertainty, sara, about the post-pandemic labor market and i think as the year goes on we will get a better sense of how much adjustment in the labor market is needed, but you're right, so far we see the headlines but the overall employment data is still very strong. >> so you think we will avoid recession this year in the u.s.? >> well, you know, recession is sort of a technical term that the nbvr applies and sometimes with a lag i think we are going to see a growth slowdown but there have been down turns in the u.s. that are called recessions in which growth is actually positive for the year so i don't see any need right now for there to be a deep or

prolonged downturn or recession, but there will be some rise in unemployment likely and some slowdown in growth and maybe at some point it will be declared a recession. >> okay. so you expect 25 basis point hike next week from fed chair powell the question and really the market mover lately has been around the news conference and the tone that he strikes i wonder how hawkish you expect him to be given that i have said it like three times so far this hour, but the nasdaq is up almost 12% so far this year, which is not necessarily what the fed wants, right >> well, what i will say about this, sara, is i do think that they're going 25 basis points at this meeting, there are no projections that the chair has to talk about, so he will, i think, want to strike an appropriate tone and my sense is that the press conference may skew a bit hawkish because i think he and the committee realize they do have some more work to do, maybe not a lot. our view of pimco is most of the

heavy lifting they've needed to do they got done last year and certainly got done in a hurry. i do expect a somewhat hawkish tone at the press conference. >> do you guys think the dollar has seen the peak this cycle, that it will keep falling from here >> well, i think a lot of indicators are moving in that direction. the dollar got a boost in 2020 because of the pandemic collapse, so flight to quality, and then got a boost last year with the fed hiking rates aggressively, again, most of those hikes are in the rearview mirror we're also getting better news on inflation, now three months in a row i know three doesn't equal 12, but it's the first time really in more than two years we have had a marked deceleration in the three-month numbers and all of those together for me indicate we probably have seen the peak dollar this in cycle. >> it really also raises the question about what's happening in the rest of the world there was so much negativity on europe we don't talk about it that much, but europe -- if the u.s.

has been resilient europe has been amazingly resilient given their energy crunch, given the slow growth they came into this with, unlike the u.s. and it's been a pleasant surprise that europe hasn't gone into recession and a lot of the ceos said they expect weakness in europe and we are not seeing it this quarter what's the projection there snow. >> you make a great point. i think part of fs simply there was a very warm winter throughout most of europe, i know that, i was in rome for new year's, it was very pleasant, but that means they haven't needed the natural gas and as a consequence all this natural gas they were storing, natural gas prices are now lower than they were before the ukraine invasion so as a consequence, you know, just as high gas prices are a tax on consumers, lower gas prices are obviously support for the economy. so you're right, we have seen the sentiment indicators pick up as well. >> but does that hold, as long as the temperatures can stay as

pleasant as rome on new year's >> my crystal ball is not perfect and mostly focused on the u.s. but i have -- i have noted the tick up that you have in europe. that's for sure. >> it's a tailwind so far. richard, thank you very much for the time appreciate it. especially ahead of the fed. >> thank you, sara. >> richard clarida former vice chair of the federal reserve let's show you what's happening right now almost at the high, we've slipped a little, do you is up 155, up 0.6% for the s&p 500, adding to the gains for the week and for the month of january as we look to wrap up the month in the middle of next week nasdaq is in the lead up 1.3%, the lead today is coming from tesla, but apple and amazon are acting well, nvidia has been a big story of a come back this year we will hit the chips a little more with intel sagging. also after the break wall street is buzzing about a potential bankruptcy of the country's largest regional sports network. we are going to talk about that news and what it says about the current media landscape.

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what is wall street buzzing about? the potential collapse of the country's largest regional sports network sinclair broadcasting owns diamond sports group, that firm that bought the regional sports networks from disney back in 2019 when disney had to divest them, remember, after the fox acquisition. diamond sports increased its leverage to buy the sports channels and now it's declining cable tv subscribers finds itself in trouble. there are reports that the company is preparing for bankruptcy i spoke the ceo chris ripley back in 2019 when this deal happened, sinclair buying the rsns from disney he called them a free cash flow generating machine i asked him if he was worried about getting into the business

with key declining subscribers. >> they are one of the major pillars within the paid tv universe we have set sinclair off to be the preeminent business and local sports and news and those are the biggest pillars in live viewing which have massively outperformed any other genre within the video business and at the end of the day for less than the price of a starbucks coffee you can enjoy in your local market almost every night a baseball game, basketball game or a hockey game for your household. it's just an incredible value. >> thanks to analyst rich green felled for always inter minding me of that interview every time there is a stumble here. we've reached out for comment and have not heard back. our media reporter alex sherman joins us now, he was very bullish when that deal happened, it was a tough interview and i remember it because he fought every point on the leverage, on

the declining subs so what happened between then and now? >> i remember it, too, sara, i remember talking to you about it before the interview, actually, about what you should ask and i -- part of it that i remember is that this idea that regional sports networks were not a declining business well, when you parse apart his answer what he seemed to not allude to was this general idea that linear tv, secularly, was starting to fall apart and what happened between then and now was the pandemic hit and when the pandemic hit we saw the amount of people canceling traditional cable tv dramatically accelerate. so that interview was 2019, of course the pandemic hit, maybe six months later, and then the acceleration of these millions of american households canceling cable for their bucket of streaming services hit and every single person or almost every person that was paying for cable tv was paying for a regional

sports network whether they watched that or not. so billions of dollars came out of the system over the past couple years and regional sports networks as the model is drawn up doesn't really work anymore, particularly because sinclair paid more than $10 billion for these 21 regional sports networks that they bought out of that disney transaction as you alluded to in the intro, almost all of that was debt so that's why we're here now in this sort of situation of restructuring because there's simply not enough cash flow coming in for the amount of money that they spent on the networks and that they owe all of the teams to broadcast their content. >> so what happens next to them? >> yeah, that is the $64,000 question we don't really know sinclair has come out recent months, year or so, and said, look, we have a streaming solution, we will charge $20 a month and people can get access to these networks.

again, the issue there is that it's not clear that streaming really works for regional sports network because only the people that follow a given team are paying for this and that amount of money, the amount of people that want to watch regional sports is way less, millions and millions and millions less than the amount of people that were previously signing up for cable tv that number was 70, 80 million now we're just talking about fans of the teams and fans of the teams that want to pay $20 a month to watch those teams it's just not a huge number. the leagues may actually end up buying back the rights themselves out of bankruptcy the first step will be that the creditors will likely take over ownership and they would sell theoretically the rights back to the nba, major league baseball and the nhl, those are the three major leagues associated with this this is just one solution, one potential solution i'm talking about, but if the leagues were to take back the rights, that would potentially boost the value of the leagues going

forward. there are some people i have spoken with that even posit maybe the leagues themselves will go public one day and they will use these media rights as sort of another revenue stream to make that pitch to go public but that's likely years down the road. >> it's an interesting prospect and why they would want the rights themselves. alex, thank you. alex sherman good to see you. >> go niners. up next -- go bengals. he taunts me with it up next, the dean evaluation on why intel's earnings disaster could mean the global economy is slowing faster than expected plus his latest thoughts on tesla after a huge upside move in the stock this week look at tesla, week to date. another big move today, it's up % t wk. we will be right back.

plus his latest thoughts on tesla after a huge upside move

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let's collect in on intel again, that brutal earnings report driving the stock down more than 6% the company's performance raising concerns over what it means for the global economy joining us now is aswath damodaran from nyu stern school of business. good to see you, we always talk to you, you are the dean of valuations about whether stock looks cheap or not, i fell like we could ask this about intel for a while, it's had a lot of big disappointing quarters and resets and guidances since well before pat gelsinger took over to turn it around, the stock trading at 14 times. is it a good deal or hard to do when you don't have that kind of clarity about what's to come >> there are two issues, one is intel has been a mature company now for a while, even though people seem to have illusions it can get back to growth the second is especially in this

earnings report one of the things that has troubled me, made me confused is the split between what economists are telling us about what 2023 will spring, recession, a slowing economy, and what analysts are projecting as earnings there is a disconnect here earnings have barely budgeted in terms of forecast, we look at how much they've dropped, it's like 2%. so this quarter's earnings are going to be a test of who is right, are the economists right that the economy is slowing down or the analysts right? and i think intel report suggests that maybe we're underestimating how much the global economy is going to slow down and that i think is bad news not just for intel but for semiconductors stocks collectively and cyclical companies overall. >> overall look overvalued if the global economy is worse than what we're expecting which you think is a tell from intel, is that the idea? >> it will be just not just the sector, it will be a market correction, right? if we've seriously

underestimated how much the economy is slowing down, the market has to clean up its act and i think this is just a first in a series of reports we're going to get which are going to give us an indication of where we're going with the market. >> i have to ask you about tesla. you have long called this stock overvalued, i saw recently that you've said it is still overvalued, but not as much as before are you changing your thinking here >> the stock was up $30 so shows you how little i know about the company. no, but this is a company where there is nomiddle ground, right, you either love the company or you hate the company, and it's always been the case. i've tried to find a middle ground and i get critiqued from both sides my valuation actually reflects a pretty upbeat story about tesla, a company with revenues of more than $400 billion in ten years and margins of 16% do you know how many skps in the world have revenues of more than $400 billion and margins of

greater than 16% right now not one. i'm making tesla an exceptional company and i'm still coming short. the fact that the market disagrees with me is neither here nor there but i think a reflection of the fact that with this company we will never get to a middle ground, you're going to overreact -- remember in december 27 of 2022 the stock was at $109, i wish i had bought it then but hindsight is 2020. >> what do you think it's worth? white house your latest? >> i think about $130 is my estimate per share which is within shouting distance of the value when i did it which was three days ago now of course it's trading at close to $180 i'm back on the sidelines saying, you know, i have to wait >> all right well, thank you for bringing us up to speed. i know people pay attention to where you are on these valuations aswath, thank you, good to see you. aswath damodaran. tesla, speaking of, in other tesla news reports crossing this hour saying elon musk says an s.e.c. probe over his role in

self-driving car claims. phil lebeau joins us now this is another potential s.e. ceo probe, phil. >> sure. yes. and, we should point out we have not confirmed that the s.e. ceo is investigating what elon musk may have made claims about when it comes to tesla's self-driving technology, often remembered to as autopilot he has talked about the ability for teslas to drive themselves for years. that is not new. the question is what exactly is the s.e.c. reportedly looking at is there a specific statement or statements it's unlikely that they are just going to probe him saying some day there will be self-driving cars it's was there a specific ford looking statement? we don't know at this point. one thing we can tell you with certainty and even tesla would admit this if you asked them, they do not have fully autonomous vehicles. they don't have them right now will they have them in the future potentially. but there is no guarantee of

that and if at the end of the day -- i get this question from people all the time, autopilot drives the car, no, it doesn't it's a driver assist system. that is important to keep in context here. >> you sound like a broken record because you've been saying that for years. how many times have we talked about it to your point it's interesting they are looking into it now. >> yes. >> phil, we have to hit this crazy move in lucid. nearly doubling at one point today. clearly there is a massive short squeeze going on anything trigger it? >> well, there's a massive short squeeze going on, there is also a huge market rumor that is out there and let's put a huge asterisk on this this is a rumor that has not been confirmed by a second party, somebody who has said, yes, this is true. there is a market report that was out there, and i said market report, an investor newsletter that had put out a report that potentially the saudi investment fund is looking to take lucid private. that caused the stock to start rocketing higher, they halted it

nine times during the day. we have reached out to lucid in a statement the company says we do not comment on market rumors or speculation for some perspective on the saudi investment fund and its stake in lucid, remember, it was a huge backer when they went public through a spac ipo in 2018, it owns about 60% of the shares right now, 1.1 million, approximately, and they invested an additional $915 million mac bank in november they have a huge stake in lucid. remember, the saudi government and this has been well-publicized has said it would like to buy 100,000 lucids at some point. there is a connection between lucid and the saudis, but, again, we cannot make this more clear to people, this is strictly a market rumor out there on a stock that was beaten down badly with a lot of shorts in there i mean, that's prime for a stock to take off, you know, as much as it has today up 40%. >> there is the squeeze. also the saudis were interested

in taking tesla private, something that elon musk took very seriously when he defended his tweet. >> correct. >> just more context there. >> that's what he testified to he testified to that this week >> right phil, thank you. phil lebeau. a lot of action in the evs this week. american express is the big winner in the dow on strong guidance that an earnings miss coming up what the company is saying about the state of the consumer we're up 150 on the dow. be right back.

up next a top analyst who says apple could experience a tale of two halves this year intel slides when tweake you

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power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. we are now in the closing bell market zone cnbc's senior markets commentator mike santoli breaks down the crucial moments of the trading day, kate rooney is here on american express and apple. mike, we've cut our gains in half here over the past 30 minutes or so, the s&p 500 is up half a percent, still going to end the week on a high note. treasury yields are firmer, the dollar is firmer, nothing too dramatic or extreme. what have you gleaned about the market positioning heading into

a very important meeting, fed meeting, next week >> there's no doubt that investors have hustled to just add exposure to this market as it seemed like it's threatening to run away. it started out in a very defensive spot a few weeks ago, right now i think you're certainly back up more toward neutral. it would be understandable if you hesitate in front of the fed. everything that the market has tried to tell us is that we're not set up for that same familiar routine of rallying into a fed meeting and having the fedex press its displeasure with what the markets have done and moved the goalposts again on where they want rates and the economy to be before they ease back at this point it seems like there's enough confidence in the down side and inflation as we saw this morning with the pce numbers that we can basically have sort of a peaceful coexistence of a market that's at a two-month high at the same time the fed is looking to cinch rates a little more. >> tesla up 12% it is carrying

the consumer discretionary sector gm is up 5% today, carmax, so something going on there with autos, the cruise lines are doing better today, it's been a mix of a cyclical growthy rally to start the year and continues ton days like today. intel is the worst performer on the dow, the top and bottom line well short of estimates, total revenue plunging 32% from last year, not expected to get better anytime soon the chip maker forecasting an unexpected loss for the current quarter, declined to give full year guidance because of, quote, persistent headwinds in the first half check out pat gelsinger earlier today. >> we do have strengthening of the product lines, we do expect some improvement in the market conditions and obviously as we ramp up new products into the new factories that have improve the situation in the second half of the year with more competitive products as well, but overall we still see the

outlook to be pretty challenging in the first half of the year. >> intel well underperforming the s&p 500 falling more than 40% over the last year also, mike, leaving behind some of these other i would say underperforming, getting left behind by some of these other tech stocks like ibm or ones considered undervalues that were outperforming in this kind of economic environment what do you do with intel? >> the rest of old value tech has really done better, oracle, things like that have held up better i think one of the telling features of today's selloff in intel is that pretty much over other big semi stock is up, amd, texas instruments, nvidia, micron are all up. people are clearly saying that this is just kind of a deep problem strategically in terms of positioning and market share with intel i think the hope you have if you are an investor looking to try to sort of catch the falling knife in intel is you can just

rebase earnings from a lower level and just have some kind of confidence it's bottoming out. it's hard to get to those numbers right now, we don't know earlier we talked to an analyst who said maybe $1.50 a share could be that number, at $28 intel doesn't look super cheap, if you had confidence it wasn't going lower than that then you start to rebuild everyone is talking dividend put cut, probably should and will happen >> you disagree with the professor aswath damodaran who said all the estimates are too high. >> there could well be further down side slippage in overall earnings as the earning season rolls on but i think intel is dealing with its own issues in combination with a super weak global pc market which is a feature i guess of the global economic environment. >> amex is the winner on the flip side in the dow today, the credit card company missing on the top and bottom line, but shares are charging higher

thanks to stronger than expected guidance for 2023 and a 15% dividend boost kate rooney joins us what did we learn about the consumer from these amex results, kate? >> which learned that the high end consumer at least which is really amex's core customer is doing just fine according to executives they said they're looking at some of the max row indicators and everything going on, some of the warnings about a recession and they said we're just not seeing it in the spending. the consumer is strong, they're still spending, that's reflected in their revenue outlook, looking for between 15 and 17% revenue growth for next year and they said they will be conservative, they will react if they need to, but a couple percentage points here or there even if you get things like gdp or unemployment to move around, they said that that's still not really going to affect their outlook and they seemed extremely bullish on the consumer, the ceo was also asked about a white collar recession, the people have talked b the

high end consumer getting hip by what's happened with the stock market and the overall global economy and he said the layoffs just have not started affecting their customer base. you have visa and mastercard which are a bit more symbolic of the broader economy and the average spender versus amex's cohort, they said the same thing, said the consumer is resilient and put out what they sort of described as more conservative guidance, but said the same thing, they just didn't have to change or lower any forecast based on the consumer it does fly in the face of other things we're hearing, other macro indicators in consumer spending and savings levels but especially for amex today looks like a positive sign for the consumer, they're still spending out there. >> yeah, no, and that is directly impacting the relating that amex is getting wolf research modeling for more modest decline in the affluent spend after the positive comments kate rooney, thank you. we will head to apple, one of the big highlights of next week's earnings calendar, our

next guest says this could be a tale of two halves you have a neutral rating on apple, $153 price target explain the tale of two halves. >> the first half is about headwinds and these headwinds have to do with some of the seasonal dynamics that are at play weak consumer demand globally and the fact that you're entering a phase of a really weak iphone cycle. when you look at the 14 and 14 plus, they have been very weak from a demand standpoint we published in our note our proprietary tracking of availability of these phones across apple stores globally when you look at that the 14 and 14 plus have been widely available all throughout whereas availability of the pro models was kind of muted given the supply issues that we've heard out of china and then they've

recovered since then but it's not that there was a huge amount of pent up demand that made the availability go low, the availability has been very steady the demand outlook in the near term is challenging, a little bit weak, as you go into the second half there is more momentum in the story because you hop on to a new iphone cycle hopefully with better expectations, there is the launch of the augmented and virtual and mixed reality headset potentially coming there are external product catalysts and the services which is challenged in the first half because of the advertising and gaming weakness accelerated in the second half. >> i feel like the other big wild card here for, i don't know when this falls, is the china reopening story and how that plays out and when that starts to boost apple, right, from production and the demand perspective. >> yeah, sara, that's a good point. from a production perspective production is already back to normal in china. the china reopening as a demand

catalyst it has been on the margin of a positive, but the 14 and 14 plus which make up roughly 50% of the portfolio, the reception of those products in china has been very timid so the problem that we see is that china demand in fiscal '23 going to be down on a year on year basis for all of apple. when you think about sort of not just the phones where 50% of the portfolio is at, that would be demand, but then you're also comping the ipad comes from an era we think will go back to pre covid levels as you're seeing in pcs. other pieces of portfolio that benefited during the pandemic in areas including china are going to be tough to overcome. we're not huge believers that the china reopening is going to be this massive tailwind for apple. >> thank you very much for joining me i appreciate it. ahead of the apple results, big event of next week along with the federal reserve meeting and many more earnings i want to show you what's happening with the overall

market, we have lost most of the gains at this point, on the dow we were up 200 earlier in the hour, up most of the day as you can see, we're barely positive now up 12 points could break a six-day win streak nicely higher for the week on the dow, the s&pand especially the nasdaq which is up 4% or more than that week to date. what sort of internals are you monitoring here? >> they were mostly positive all day, sara. i think the context for this pull back is probably just that the market was starting to run a little bit hot in the short term i mentioned that this morning. if you look at some of the short-term indicators it is getting a little bit overbought and you're head of this month end and week end when it just seems as if you've got a lot on paper in terms of gains already this year. you see it's not quite two to one advance in declining volume that's not telling too much of a story. you were talking about a lot of the aggressive stocks, the teslas, look at the high beta etf on a month to date, also a year to date basis compared to

the low vol. that's where all the action is, a massive 17 percentage point spread between the fastest stocks in the market and the conservative ones. volatility index nothing to see there, under 19, pretty much at the lows we've seen on every rally over the past year or so we'll see ifit represents a floor. of course, fed meeting on wednesday is probably going to start to build into expectations for at least potential volatility, sara. >> as we head into the close up 11 points only on the dow, loss a got chunk of the gains earlier. american express is the biggest contribution on the high side, visa, home depot, caterpillar and apple. che chevron, united health, travelers are the biggest drags. s&p 500 going to go out with a gain for the week, for the day, certainly for the month. today it's consumer discretionary leading, that's a tess lar story up mainly 11% to the close. tesla having a great week up

33%, 34% for the week, for the year as a whole up 44% as well but still well off of their highs. got hammered at the end of last year nasdaq goes out with a gain of 1%, it is the big winner, it's the fourth week in a row of gains for the nasdaq and brings the gains for the week to almost 4% that's it for me on "closing bell," have a great weekend everyone i will send you next week. you are into overtime with scott wapner. >> welcome, everybody, to this friday edition of overtime, i'm scott wapner, you heard the bells, we are just getting started at the new york stock exchange in just a little bit i will speak to kevin simpson, we have told you how he crushed the market last year and now he's back with new trades this hour thaeld tell you about in just a bit. we begin with our talk of the tape, amassive week ahead for your money, why stocks are rallying ahead of it and what it means to the market's next prove. let's ask professo