how higher for longer is going to be the rule i also don't think it requires a cut for the market i think stabilizing at 5%, 4% or whatever in fed funds is probably enough for a lit while if earnings can confirm that. >> we'll continue to have to debate of who's right, the fed or the market. great weekend to you all of you, "fast money" is right now. >> we're counting down to the busiest week of earning season $5 trillion of market cap on deck to report where we could see the biggest gains and disappointments in the week ahead plus, tesla on a tear. the ev giant locking in its best week since 2013. storming past the target price what do you do now we've got an update you won't miss later we're revisiting a topic that got us energized and exorcised last night, chevron.

i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money. we're live at the nasdaq market in the heart of times square we start with a pivotal week ahead for big tech earnings. apple, amazon, alphabet and more all on deck to report, and these names have been rallying hard heading into these results meta rallying hard at its highest level since september. apple and amazon posting big gains. even alphabet claimi climbing. the fed's first interest rate decision of the year comes could it derail the market enthusiasm we have seen here the markets are trading as if everything is going to be amazing. >> it's the things you just talked about for next week make this one of the biggest weeks and including a host of other important earnings jobless claims numbers are still

near their low the payrolls are very important to this dynamic. but get back to the market look at this move that the qqqs, the nasdaq have had. that's a change of character instead of making successive lows on a relative basis, they have now been breaking out if you're a market bull, you've got a lot of things to be happy about. you've got the breakout, breadth of the market, peak dollar and peak rates bynum makes next week really interesting, because kind of skiddish bears who are not feeling so great right now also have to counteract with very naive bulls. i think by friday, i think we could drift up through all of this, put yourself in a place where bears capitulated and people have gotten the sense they should be throwing more market just when i think it's going to go lower. >> expectations will be hit when it comes to big tech earning estimates, what the fed will do and what the fed will telegraph,

what the jobs report will come in as. some others may say, guy,s the a precarious setup as we head into a news-filled week. >> i know karen would say that she has said it, and i agree to say it's the most important week of the year is dumb we're three weeks into the year, but it's going to be one of the most important weeks we have had over the last six to nine months without question listen, the microsoft quarter and guidance was not good. the stock performance in retrospect i thought was very good we're in a situation where the market seems to be discounting bad news the fed can clearly throw cold water on it, but it's been not great, and the revisions have been markets rallied in the wake of that i'm not really sure, but i do think don't underestimate the importance of next weir. either we're going back to the august highs, which i think is

43 hundredish, or we're going make a bee line back to the 3,400 level. i think it's that simple i wouldn't fade either. >> for certain stocks the run-up has been harder. qqq, fourth straight winning week since last summer karen, you're pointing up the ra ral setup in meta. the rally has been astronomical. >> i hate going into an earnings season where, the bar has just been raised and raised and raised again for all of them even after microsoft, where it ended up rallying, so i think now the bar is raised for amazon and meta and alphabet. i don't really love that setup, but i think to guy's point, it is important because we're getting into tech earnings when so much of tech has been for the last few months about inflation and what is the fed going to do? all pinned on that rates so what is the right multiple?

should you be in gross stokes? should you not then it was turning to recession, and now the thought about, all right, it might be a recession. might be more shallow. might avoid one altogether let's see what the earnings are and more importantly what the outlook is that's going to be really important. >> then there's this theory that was posited by guy that this market run-up gives credit to jerome powell to be uber hawkish to knock the markets down, to say, you know what you don't believe me i'll deliver on my promises. >> sewure, i agree with the premise, but we've also had economic data that would back him up for a quarter point and plus, remember, he's doing qt on top of that, which is equivalent to another quarter point. so we have multiple quarter

points here. even if he does it 25 basis points, we're looking at 50. but it's about expectations, and the bar has been set so low, we're all prepared for an earnings recession i don't know if we've seen one yet. if we've seen one, have we seen it to the degree that would warrant the market selling off look at the s&p. the s&p is over 100 handles higher than its 200-day moving average. it's been a year since it's been above that for any length of time and this is the high -- most overshot over that 200-day moving average the s&p has been at i think where tim started off talk about bulls and embarrass, bears got way too complacent with their position. they have to rush to cover i don't think bulls are chasing this market. bulls are happy it's moving higher. >> by the way, what the heck is an earnings recession. we hear that term all the time we won't actually know we've hit

the worst until we see an earning resession. in your mind, what comes to your mind when you hear that? >> vi to go to the textbook, two straight quarters with e earear earnings -- six weeks ago, saying we were down 6% to 8% i do think we have been easing into this earnings pullback. we'll call it an earnings recession, whatever you want, and i think it's 100% we're going to have a recession. you look at all the forward indicators doesn't mean it necessarily has to be your textbook recession. and we get back to the job market, this is the stuff the fed should be most focused on. we're going to get an unemployment -- tuesday. the continuing claims numbers wrefd still at lows. the job market is very, very tight here how bad can earnings go in the short run when consumer has a job? this is been a much slower path than the market wanted, and it

kind of explains these extraordinary trading ranges that's why i think next week -- i think we are going to drift again through those highs, and it's going set yourself up for a great place to be taking profits, selling upside calls, to reload for another move lower. >> where are the markets a week from today, higher than we are today or lower show of hands higher tim's the only one tim is the only one. >> i'm out there not forever, but, yeah. >> you said take profit on that. >> i think it's going to be a blow off top i think you're setting up for the pain we're all talking about. focus may be on tech firms reporting next week, but chart master carter braxton worth of worth charting carter. >> one we haven't talked about in a while is corning, at least i haven't, so i thought, let us

do it. we can go right to the charts and figure it out together here is a stock that acts well there's a chart new york drawings, no annotations let's do some. next it ration what you have is a well defined downtrend line, and i think we're going to get back to that. hence the arrow. let's look at another it ration, just to put this in context. is it a he and shoulders bottom that has formed that already played out it's played out and has room to run, again, towards the downward sloping line one more, bring it back a little further, and what you see here is a very well defined formation. some people name their formations, mega phones. doesn't matter you see the stock like a pinball machine trafficked in those lines and just as we ricochetted off the bottom we're going to go

back to the top. that takes us to the 40 level. >> corning, we haven't mentioned that one -- i feel like that's "fast money" classic, ten years ago when gorilla glass came out. tesla would rally to the middle. get to 170 went through that today. what's the update on that call >> talk about not for the faint of heart this is a gambling chip at this point. do they make cars, batteries is it expensive, cheap is the guy in charge insane, genius it's peak to trough decline. now up 75% to what i would characterize as a were different level. we put out a note this afternoon to clients saying, if you're long, take profits if you're short, press it. if you have no position, new

shorts. >> carter, thank you we will see you shortly on "options action. do you remember when we used to talk about glass, guy? remember talking about gorilla glass? they used to freeze chickens and throw it at the gorilla glass to see how strong it is >> that's got to be at least ten years ago. i think glass works is interesting because it shows a stock in a downtrend can solve the violent moves to the upside. that's in one chart illustrated with the broader market. tesla, we have to bring up i won't hide from it we were on the way down. i can only speak for myself now. the move to 175 caught me off guard. when it was 130 i said you got to sell. i was wrong. now we're to the point carter said last night you might want to be thinking about taking profits. there will be another opportunity to front this stock. tesla has taken over apple from

the amount of vistriol we get from the social media crowd. from my seat if you're long this stock you got to be taking profits at these levels. >> steve, your thoughts? >> i understand what guy is saying the first level was the 150, and that one stuck out on the charts the second level is where it's at right here, which is a december level and then i think november/december are the next levels, and i think it could make it to $200. and the feeling was so negative on this one, everyone got to the wrong side of the boat, and this one exploded to the upside so i think i have a shot at 2 hunk but remember, this is something where he could pull rabbits out of a hat he could talk about battery power, powering other peep's electric vehicles.

he's got way too many rabbits in the hat to pull out. even though the stock was under tremendous pressure, it's still a within for him i'm still saying low. >> sounds like a really big crowded hat. the investor day is march 1st for tesla. tesla wasn't the only ev stock going nuts lucid, there were some market rumors that saudi arabia's public investment fund is looking to buy the shares it doesn't already own. the stock closed up 42%. this was a crazy day for lucid. >> again, this is the reason why bears should feel pretty empowered. the speculation machine in the stocks, the fact that you're seeing lucid -- you couldn't get arrested holding lucid before, or maybe you were going to get arrested so, yeah, i can't speak to

sovereign wealth fund buying i can till there are overdone stocks this is the kind of stuff that tell mess the bear market isn't over. >> from gm to lilly to mcd's, what's the top stock we're watching next. chevron, the details when "fast money"etns ckn o. rur trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. (swords clashing) while-had enough? tool help-no... arthritis.rades here. aspercreme arthritis.

full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income... are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217.

that's 1-800-217-3217. welcome back to "fast money. busiest week of earnings season on deck. many without with results. we've already tackled tech, so what is the number one name outside of that sector that you are watching grasso, kick it off. >> caterpillar i'm looking for that infrastructure deal or bill they passed to actually start sprinkling some money in, that should be coming in the next couple of months caterpillar's chart is outrageous to the upside it's performed very well, but people are starting to bet against it now, and i think the money is just coming in. this is the wrong time to be betting against caterpillar. interested to so see what kind of commentary they've going

forward. >> this is a new high, i believe. tim, where do you go >> you have to go to transport, to u.p.s., but also, where's pricing power? it's not fedex we're asking bottom up. we're asking top down from u.p.s. it should trade at a premium but pricing power is something we never questioned about these shippers in the last two years that's something i think we want to hear a lot more about i want to hear about ground and hear how much demand there is out there. >> guy, i know you used to work for u.p.s. in that brown what are you anticipating in terms of earnings? >> valuation, it's been an interesting stock on valuation do they continue to separate themselves from federal express, which they have done, by the way, and as you mentioned -- you brought it up, i worked there. i was employee of the month of

that entire month, so just goes to show you how strong my u.p.s. skills -- >> i love how we have this video ready to go. amazing. our staff is amazing karen, which name are you watching >> never stops being good. >> i'm watching that video again and again, actually. i'm watching gm. i'm interested it's not so much about the earnings i think it's really going to be more i want to hear about the demand obviously delivery is important, but the demand how is that holding up and i also want to hear -- they have been delaying and delaying a bigger push in ev. i really want to hear about that i think gm financial slows down, which is okay. but it's more about demand for me. >> and guy, which name >> yeah, i want to give a shout-out to my coworkers in brown, number one. number two, mcdonald's reports

do they put up a number that justifies? operating margins around 45.5% or thereabouts those are the numbers. i do think they're going surprise to an upside. within a whisper of an all of time high. >> guy got fired from mcdonald's he wasn't willing to wear the hair net. >> but got rehired at domino's and shake shack. so many jobs, not enough time. coming you recollect chevron, its ceo responding to white house scrutiny. later, the lowdown on how to secure venti size returns from starbucks. back right after this. [music - cover of blondie's “dreaming”]

[music playing] ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪ ♪ dreaming is free. ♪ accenture, let ♪here be change. ♪ a cyber-attack can grind everything to a halt. cisco security keeps your company moving forward. because if it's connected, it's protected. cisco. this tiny payment thing- because if it's connected, it's protected. is a giant pain! hi ladies! alex from u.s. bank! can she help? how about a comprehensive point of sale system...

that can track inventory, manage schedules- and customize orders? that's what u.s. bank business essentials is for. (oven explosion) what about a new oven, can u.s. bank help us there? we can serve loans in as fast as 12 minutes. that would be a big help! huge! jumbo! ginormous! woo! -woo! finding ways to make your business boom. that's what u.s. bank is for. we'll get there together.

we are live from the global conference plus, a look at miami's dented crypto dreams. all starts monday, 5:00 p.m. eastern only on cnbc let's get to chevron taking a leg lowered to down 4.5% after reporting mixed fourth quarter results yesterday. this warning, chevron circumstantial evidence backlash from the white house after announcing a $75 billion stock buyback plan, a move that had our investors fire up. here's mike wirth on this morning's call. >> i think it's perhaps been a touch overblown, you know, given that it's an open-ended program,

and we could have sized a smaller one and been prepared to do another one sooner. we just looked at something that would last a number of years we weren't trying to be slashy, weren't trying to create any reaction we're just trying to indicate the confidence we have in our cash generation. >> tim. >> i think he should be confident in the cash generation that was a $75 billion open-ended number that doesn't say they're going to do it tomorrow the you look at the last round of numbers, there's reasons the stock was down today wasn't just because he's pushed back on the comments they talked about a replacement ratio of under 100%. there are people concerned they're not investing in the organic part of the business if you're a shareholder, everything they said -- their debt ratio fell 160 basis points they had an annual dividend of 7.6% and paid that dividend in $40 oil. chevron to me is doing everything right, and they and

conoco have been ahead of the rest of the industry looking at payback. >> mike could have gone many directions responding to the white house criticism, but he played it straight forward guy, what did you make of it >> he took the high road good for him it's typically less traveled i find myself on the low road. would have been more dramatic probably but he said all the right things, clearly. it's interesting to demonize an industry -- if this had been some software company we wouldn't be talking about it because it's energy. obviously it becomes a political jump ball, which is unfortunate. but he said all the things i think are exactly right. in term os chevron specifically, there's nothing not to like at chevron, exxon, and all the other downstream names i think you stay with the energy trade here.

>> for most of you, all e-traders who put together the okay ro anymores -- grasso, congratulations on your win. i believe it was 19% to fractions of a cent to everybody else. >> and i had the "t" for tesla, but the chevron, just speaking on a -- the guys summed it up very well but speaking of last year, the equities commodity forms well this year you'll have commodity outperformed the equities. but if fossil fuels are public anymore number one, but with the government, they'll keep -- >> let's go around the horn.

steve. >> press the metal long. i like the chart >> chairwoman? >> yes, ulta fantastic run, all-time high, but got to sell upside calls too far, too fast. >> tim, at&t, free cash flow, it's there we're in miami starting monday meantime, don't go anywhere. "options action" is up next. ♪ prizefighter... ...meets trailblazer. ♪ ♪ classic meets modern. ♪ at morgan stanley, we may seem like a contradiction...and we are.

♪ ♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, ♪ helping you discover untapped possibilities ♪ and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, ♪ to create new legacies, ♪ to research, innovate, collaborate, ♪ and build the way to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪

the charts and the trades coming up, plus, starbucks have been growing up big gains over the last three months. can options give your portfolio a nice jolt. i'm melissa lee. this is "options action. on the desk tonight, mike khouw, cart worth, and brian stetland let's check out some of the names seeing the most options action this week, tesla,