good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm arabile gumede. these are your headlines >> renault will slash stake in nissan to 15%. putting the french firm on equal footing with the japanese partner. and fourth quarter revenue announces further job cuts >> we are happy to see the sales

turning to 3% positive it was helped by additional supply that we were able to secure if we get supply, we can convert and drive sales. that is something we need to continue to work on as the environment remains volatile. and european equities start the week on the back foot while sovereign bond yields edge higher as spanish accelerates in the month of january days ahead of the ecb next meeting. and european chipmaker having issues as the chip wars heats up and japanese officials limit the sale of advanced chip technology to china it is a data filled week this is no change. today coming through with some

numbers that have just come out with regards to germany's gdp numbers. on a quarter by quarter basis for the fourth, down 0.2%. it was expected to be flat for the period, but down it went on the preliminary basis. fourth quarter gdp number down 0 conti0.2% for germany when you look at the adjusted numbers from the year on year basis, it actually went up 1.1% as opposed to a forecast of 1.3% yes, resilient, but little bit less than expected when the number is taken a look at. the overall figure 0.2% for quarter on quarter and 1.1% for the fourth quarter forecast. >> you talk about the sequencing

a couple of weeks back, we got the full year number for 2022. then this q4 gdp and people were expecting to come down the expectation based on the 2022 number as a whole was q4 might make it to avert a mild contraction. it came in at 0.2% let's bring in annette minor contraction, annette is this the start of the german recession? >> that is not known recession fears are growing. it was clearly expected to flat line in the fourth quarter the emphasis is trading through it it is mainly on lower product consumption which is not really surprising given the high

inflation print and the german reluctance to spend if times are uncertain. what they are saying is the fourth quarter was lower and in terms of economic output because of lower consumption and expense. for now, the german economy is holding up pretty well the first three quarters of last year were actually quite robust. the strategists are saying much will depend on how the inflation development will unfold during the next month and, of course, how the rest of the world is performing whether we get another quarter of contraction or if the first quarter will be down again that would then qualify, of course, for a technical

recession. two contsectsecutive quarters oe economic unknown it is down 0.2%. below what economists had expected expectations were flat lining with no growth and no contraction quarter on quarter and 1.3% growth year on year >> all right annette, thank you no doubt that information is what the ecb will take into consideration at the meeting this thursday. they are expected to hike by 50 basis points they are taking in all of the information that is coming out this morning, including the inflation data from spain. massive upward surprise. that definitely came as a surprise to markets. i'll talk about the price action on fixed income on the back. spanish cpi number is a driver of markets today at 5.8% against

the forecast of 4.7% another data point for the ecb and we are coming off a positive week week last week with stoxx 600 up s&p up 2.5%. great week for tech last week with the nasdaq up 4%. today, we are pulling back we had a mixed handover from asian equities overnight chinese markets are open again after lunar new year not the case for other asian equities stoxx 600 is down .50% in early trade. as for the individual breakdown, it is not better look at the individual indices all trading in the red with the swiss index being the only slightly positive one. a lot of earnings from

switzerland. geoff will fly to switzerland today and talk us through what is happening there and later on with ubs reporting and pharmaceuticals. dax in germany is coming in lower than expected. it is down .4% cac 40 is down .4% as well one stock we are watching is renault. trading weaker renault and nissan have come to new terms of the stakes in one another. renault reduced stake in nissan 15 percentage points ftse 100 also down .the 80%. a big week in the uk bank of england will go for 50 basis point lihike some people are saying they may opt for 25 with the job growth being weaker we have pretty much here every

sector trading in the red. pulling back in tech we have down 1.9%. the chipmakers led by the move today. there was news over the weekend that in hnetherlands are going o dow join the u.s. with the chip makers designs i gave you a glimpse earlier. european yields are having quite the move today they are five basis points higher if you are looking at the 10-year bund 10-year italy is trading at 2.4% the catalyst was the higher than expected spanish inflation front that caught people off guard and the impetus for the ecb to sound more hawkish for thursday.

something to watch out for in corporate space, i touched on this briefly. renault is front and center today. you see the stock down 3%. this is after renault and nissan confirmed to restructure with renault reducing stake in nissan to 15% from 43%. we are seeing a little bit of at the stock has done well. let's get to charlotte charlotte has been monitoring these for the last couple months we finally have a resolution it appears to put both carmakers on equal footing >> reporter: absolutely, joumanna this new alliance, as you said, has been discussing since october. they were carrying trustful discussions with the two partners it is a 20-year old alliance there has been friction and issues one of the sticking points with

nissan and renault is the shareholder structure. renault owned 43% of nissan and they had no voting rights. there is tension with the two partners this is another issue with the equal share holding of 15% within each other with voting rights renault will transfer 28.4% of the rest of nissan into the french trust and they can sell that stake further down the line if they want when it is commercially viable that will free up issues for renault. they have announced recently the ev unit and potentially list that ev unit in the second half of 2023 so they get further investment for that. nissan will invest in the ev

unit we don't know how much nissan will invest. there is the settlement. we know that renault will sell the internal combustion unit with chinese company gili. there is an issue for nissan and intellectual property with chinese gili we have no further details and finally in the communication, nissan and renault will work on key projects in latin america and india and europe all of this is subject to broad approval here is another question with the french government with a 15% stake in renault they have to say if they are on board with the new structure the announcement of the two new ceos are on board with the companies from a couple of years ago. they said they want to revive the alliance and leverage it at

the highly competitive cars and investment in ev there is a question mark, but this announcement after months of discussion with renault and nissan re we see renault at the bottom of the cac 40 guys >> charlotte, thank you for that of course, it is a story we have been following a lot and will continue to get more news out of that one let's get to other company news technology company philips reported a net loss of 106 million euro which was bigger than the 16 million euro loss expected it is despite posting a beat on sales in the period. the company announcing that it will cut an extra 6,000 jobs by 2025 in addition to the 4,000 layoffs that were announced in october. ceo roy jacobs told cnbc that supply chain challenges are

still impacting the company. >> we need to get the components that are holding us back our consumer business currently is unconstrained in supply there we can deliver on the health system side, we have shortages continue. we still have certain chips we cannot yet get in the quantities we need. we have others that are not reliable in the market we are not exactly sure when we can get them we have volatility to manage u.s. dutch and japanese officials are close to a deal to limit china access to technology needed to make computer chips. dutch semiconductor supply firm asml confirmed that steps have been made to agreement with governments which, to our understanding, will be focused on advanced chip manufacturing

technology, including, but not limited to advance lithography tools. it does not have any impact on the forecast for the year. steve spoke to dutch prime minister a couple of weeks ago in davos >> this is about how to defend leading technology in the u.s. and europe and ending up on the defense systems where you don't want them to end up. it is also about supply chain. if you get this wrong, chips are also part of our cars and this is medium technology and if we do this not in the right way, we will hurt our supply chains. that is the type of discussion we are having not just with the united states, but it is about china and more pof a discussion. >> asml ceo said they will

follow whatever restrictions come into force. >> a complex situation with multiple companies and highly c co come -- complex supply chain of course, we provide them with the information as we see it, you know, and this is actually helpful. i think helpful in the discussions that are currently going on it is up to them we in that sense have to follow what comes out i think it is still a discussion >> the executive vice president and head of international affairs of the chamber of commerce he joins us in studio to unpack u.s. and eu and other trade re relations that we have thank you for the time wehad kopp 27 last year and th

world economic forum trade relations have not thawed too much if anything, they still remain the same as they have been would your assessment be the same >> first of all, it is great to be on the show again i will say this, we built a security relationship that is strongest in decdecades. we need to match that with the economic relationship. w we have a strong foundation with europe and the united states almost 16 million jobs tied to the two economies. there is a lot to build on you are right, we also have challenges ahead as we look at policies in brussels whether it is the digital markets act or dealing with digital service act or the taxes or other issues in the relationship of course, the europeans have their issues we have to avoid protectionism on both sides. we have strong relation on the

unprovoked aggression of russia into ukraine we have increasing relationship with china policy. we can build on that we have supply chain resilienrey we have to look at clean energy technology and deal with the issues with data >> you speak about protectionism not being -- being something you don't want to put out here one would look at inflation reduction act and think that is aimed as protectionism if there is not a resolution found on either side, the repercussions could be for a long time? >> i think there are problems with the i.r.a., no question about it it had the goal of trying to put america on the map in a real way on climate change. it also has the issue around supply chain resiliency. how do we better produce critical minerals? how do we do that with europe?

i think there is a solution on that issue we know japan and korea and europe have huge investments in the auto industry and be in clean tech in the united states. we want to protect and support it let's remember it is only 1% right here it is a very small issue it has become a bigger political issue. i think we will get it resolved. let's turn our attention to brussels with policy we have to pursue opportunities and not get caught up in the irritants of the relationship. >> yeah. that is always the way with diplomacy. it feels like one of the themes that came from the world economic forum a couple of weeks ago is the theme of realignment. companies rethinking supply chainsor trading partners whic did emerge as a theme. the pandemic made companies reevaluate the sourcing and manufacturing of the final products they are selling.

you see it across the discussions we have been having. when it comes to a relationship with the u.s. and china, you are actually seeing a material impact now on trade. u.s. imports from china have started decreasing how does your desire to keep the world open and trading square up with the geopolitical tensions at play with the u.s. and china and the desire more broadly speaking of realignment. >> joumanna, there is a lot in that question. let me say quickly, first, we have to make sure the united states is in the trade game. we haven't announced a new trade agreement in ten years there are hundreds inked in that time we have to have forward looking policy whether it is toward europe or the asia-pacific region, we have to advance trade policy we have u.s. and uk free trade

agreement. we need more context also, china is important $1 trillion relationship you are right. ceos i talked to are thinking about mitigating risk. the fallout. you see that already with the investment in vietnam and malaysia and in mexico, closer to home. that will continue you need to diversify your supply chains. you are not moving out of the market in china in many sectors where it is a big market you have a direction of xi jinping that is harming investment in that country not just from the united states, but europe the alignment and shared values with europe. let's focus on the shared fvalus and double down with the economic partnership that is the challenge for europe and united states to work together on that front >> define the state of relations

with the u.s. and chinea. that formed the bottom of the relationship since then with joe biden and xi jinping >> i was in beijing when the deal was inked with the united states and china to begin china's succession to the wt oi o that is how long you have the history. the xi and biden meeting was important. we have real differences on the national security front and with respect to taiwan and human rights and issues like that. at the same time, there is no way you can have china and the united states not deal with global challenges with this relationship we have to figure out a way to deal with the climate challenge and health challenges and economic commerce where it makes sense. i think we have an opportunity we have a new team under xi jinping. we will see how that team resets policies after the march

congress in beijing. the burden is really on china to demonstrate to the rest of the world, not just to the united states, that it wants to abide by rules that are established in the international system >> how does the gridlock in the u.s. congress complicate things? >> gridlock is a choice. we can avoid that. the polarization in our country is a problem it is preventing smart policies with immigration we have to deal with the debt ceiling crisis and permitting and production in the united states you can't do that without bipart bipartisanship republicans and democrats have to work together and they have to work together to advance our economy at a time when there is a lot of economic uncertainty. we are doing better on inflation. we still have uncertainty in our economy as we do in the world economy. we have to overcome gridlock we think we can do that. >> first, beat the gridlock is

the one plan on the other side, the question is can you both particularly with china as well really get to agreement that doesn't allow either side to cede advantage? that is the big thing. china feels probably ceding advantage and it could be the same on the u.s. side of the conversation as well is there a way to find a solution where both don't have to >> i'm not sure economic model in china is working right now. the lowest growth rate in china in a long time covid policies had something to do with that china's position in the world has suffered from its position in the russia and ukraine dispute. i think china has to step up right now. it has to make a choice. does it want to be part of the market the world market in a way that is seen as not harmful to the policies does the u.s. and china have to frame a better relationship?

sure it is difficult in washington. if you want bipartisanship, talk about china. that is where they are aligned and growing with concerns of the national security challenge of china. we have to find the right balance. it is difficult to find the right balance if beijing is not acting responsibly >> fair. myron, thank you for joining us on the show. myron brilliant, head of the chamber of commerce. coming up on the show, chinese markets reopen after the lunar new year holiday we look to discuss that coming up next.

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welcome back ryanair posted a profit of 211 million euro beating heexpectato and beating the previous record in 2019. the u.s. dollar remains strong and demand for asia tourists

pick up. it warned of a loss in the fourth quarter this year government data shows a surge compared to last year of 25%. that is still half the pre-pandemic figure. holiday bookings did top those of the same period in 2019 according to the china national business agency and box office sales topping pre-pandemic levels let's look at the chinese markets since the markets reopened since the lunar new year the mood for the most part is positive shenzhen up 1.1% shanghai is up .14%. we were up more than 1% for the shanghai composite of

it has come offline with the other asian markets. hang seng is down 2% today although we had a strong week last we'ek people thought chinese market would catch up, but it fell off with the broader equities. the australian index down and the kospi down 1.3%. as we mentioned, hang seng down 2.7% as well a mixed picture for asian equities coming up on the show, central bank decisions and european earnings. we look at what to expect in the banking space this week when "street signs" returns

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has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. german gdp contracts in the fourth quarter heralding the recession for the economy. that is days before the ecb's

meeting. renault shares decline as automaker will slash its stake in knenissan to 15% putting it equal footing with the japanese partner. and european chip makers sink as the war heats up with the japanese officials agree to limit the sale of advanced technology to china. china csi 300 index bouncing off the october lows as trading starts after the week-long lunar new year holiday it has been a negative day across the market as we kick off a new week to end the month of january, which has run positive as well and we saw german gdp numbers 30

minutes ago. that pointing to a slump for the fourth quarter 0.2% it was expected to be flat on the quarter by quarter basis that will not help the market picture. neither will the spanish numbers. 5.8% for january as opposed to the 4.8% anticipated it sayis a jump from the 5.5% we have seen. negative tones across the market picture with the tech stocks moving into the red and leading those losses with the travel stocks which are down 1.2% surprise considering the reopening of china and we saw the csi move into the fairly positive territory after that catch up trade from the lunar new year negative across the board here other company news, unilever announces the new ceo.

he will replace on july 1st. hein schumacher will receive fixed annual pay1.85 million euros. nelson peltz welcomes the move and says he strongly supports the consumer giant's new leader. bayer has called for the ceo to be replaced ahead of the contract in 2024 in an interview with the local newspaper, the daka head of government called on the chairman to act before april and appoint someone outside the com company. a spokesperson declined to comment on the interview, but the company is open to dialogue

with its shareholders. commerz bank has met the criteria for the dax annette is joining us again for this one interesting from commerzbank and the significant criteria >> actually, they have opted to leave germany as their listed country. that is a loss because it was a dax heavyweight. higher than lehman they are needing a replacement and commerzbank wanted to leave the dax.

when the group recalculated, they said they need to go. of course, for commerzbank it is huge to reenter the dax because the investor base is much broader and that could mean the share price could develop better than being in the second tier of the german market in the index. what have they done? they released the numbers previously because it will be decided who will replace the gas producer they will announce the replacement on the 17th of february commerzbank is publishing on the 16th of february that gives them less time to take them as a potential successor. one criteria is very important after you have the wild card and

delivery on the dax which has been loss making it is profitability which is important. they need two consecutive years of positive ebita. they need to qualify to be the replacement. another company charted to be the next in the dax is the defense company. if you look at current market valuations, commerzbank is higher in the end, it is up to deutsche bank to decide what the criteria is for profitability that is why we see the numbers from commerzbank they are well placed to be the replacement in the dax as said, 17th of february is the decision day when deutsche bank will announce who is going to succeed linden

>> february 17th is the day we will put in our diary. annette, thank you for that. let's look at the european banking complex is trading this is the week where bank earnings kickoff ubs and unicredit tomorrow you see the picture as of yet is mixed. leaning toward negative. the uk banks also in the red as well the french ones, too it is a big week for banks with major policy decisions due from the fed on wednesday and the bank of england and european central bank on thursday earnings are thick and fast. unicredit and ubs tomorrow and deutsche bank on thursday. and sao paolo on friday. lots in the banking space this week happy to say that the managing partner for europe from oliver

weiman joins us at the desk. i'm getting more and more notes from the community which are positive about the prospects for european banks this year you think despite the talk of recession and challenging macro back drop, that not be the case. the issue is we are in a higher interest rate environment now. >> that is the key rate. interest rates are driving earnings that is the difference for the u.s. banks last week they are dependent on fee income european banks are more exposed to interest rates. that will continue to support. what is interesting and what we have not seen is an adjustment of the multiples we have seen an adjustment of earnings overall view on the banking sector and the long-term profitability hasn't changed yet. >> it is interesting because for that to happen, you need investors to feel confident that they are going to generate

returns and get involved in the european banking system. one issue is the huge amount of share buybacks and dividends the banks are going for, especially the italian banks, which are sitting on a lot of capital. people the say on that front, there could be regulatory headwinds coming the ecb is not happy they are using that capital and using it to buy back stock. >> what is interesting when you look at the developments of the global financial crisis, the european and american banks which grew in line up to 2016. the american banks flat lined 12 12%. european banks grew 15%. the american banks bought back a lot of shares and had higher dividends and the europeans are starting to come through, but covid hit and many regulators

put restrictions on the buybacks that were happening noin the season we are now in the environment where the question is what are we going to do with the remainder earnings we have >> it could be a potential tailwind. >> you have the interest rates going up which is meant to help banks for the most part. the risk, however, of credit losses is still fairly high. one might say. do you think that play into the v -- plays into the valuations? >> i think that is the issue right now. consumer behavior will have a key impact on bank earnings. from two places. the deposit beat that is what level you hando ove the high interest rates to consumers. some banks are trying to give guidance to investors and others have been holding back on that demand the other question is what happens to consumer credit

demand early days, this recession that we're in is interesting, in the sense that unemployment hasn't materially increased yet what we have seen time and again in the european economies is what drives credit losses a rise of unemployment. >> speaking of unemployment, the banks, particularly in the u.s., have really looked to cut out in terms of staff do you see anything of the nature happening in europe >> the european banks have been cutting staff for a decade that is the difference u.s. banks returned to pre-global financial crisis profitability levels versus the last decade where the european banks didn't earn on average the cost of capital. that led to a dramatic shift in for fortunes it is led to 55% of the banking sector that compares to 170% 1.5

decades back. >> what does that mean for the past five or ten years, this is something we have been talking about. can it be bridged or has the u.s. brought that forward in the market position? >> they have been talking about the european banking union and will bring cross border consolidation and to give you one figure on security markets in the u.s., the total security volume is 18% of gdp in europe, including the uk, it is 1%. so that shows the huge difference we need to solve this. it is not within the existing agenda of the current european commission the question is what can be done meanwhile? on friday, we launched a report with the banking federation. three key points coming away the first one is simply find a

way capital requirements are set. they are in europe more complex and less transparent that makes it more difficult management holding a higher buffer on the back of it second security market is something that can be addressed with the capital implications coming out of it on the forward looking basis, the huge debates on the street and how it is being implemented considering the global playing field and the question on climate for central banks will go you have two choices one is to work with stress tests and the alternative is to ad add additional capital >> is there a chance the europeans will go down that route? that means more capital requirements >> early days of where things are going. it hasn't been ruled out bank ceos tell us the complexity of the mult -- multitude of

overlapping makes things more difficult. >> and on dealmaking that hit a slump of late is theenvironment still a little too volatile now for that you have what could be seen as a time when interest rates would level out at some stage. is it still too volatile >> volumeatility is out there ceos are concerned of the outlook many coming out of davos. the message was cautious optimism i would note cautious of a lot of the regulatory agenda that needs to be worked through needs to be addressed to help facilitate the bigger way. >> i want to round it out with something you said earlier the recession we are experiencing is a strange one. unemployment rate is still low the jobs market overall is

strong what does this mean in terms of cost of risk for the sfwbanks? you would have thought macroeconomics slowdown and cost of risks go up so far, q4, because we have not started earnings yet so far, banks were subdued they were relaxed. >> we have not seen it yet i would be surprised if we see a big change coming into the q4 results. it will largely happen this week it is like an environment we shift from quarter to quarter. everyone expecting the recession and we all continue to push it out by another quarter at the moment, you are right the environment is subdued as long as unemployment stays at the levels we are currently and as long as inflation is statame, we will not see much there >> thank you for joining us. good to have you we will have further discussion

in relist to the banks it is a busy week across europe. christian is the managing partner for europe at oliver wyman. coming up on the show, u.s. tech earnings take center stage this week as layoffs continue across the industry. we'll discuss next

welcome back it is said to be another big week of earnings with u.s. tech companies reporting. meta and peloton are due on wednesday and that is followed by apple, alphabet and amazon and qualcomm the following day this is a busy week. last week did not necessarily see a positive set of numbers. only 67% of the earnings, joumanna, seem to have beat estimates. that number not necessarily too high we will see how that fares this week apple is a key one to watch out for this week. and watching the chips and how it impacts things.

>> these companies are very much in focus because they are namely the companies announced the layoffs. we were just talking about that with the previous guest earlier. more scrutiny than the guidance for the rest of the year meta obviously put in positions and amazon reducing head count alphabet as well announced head count reduction, too i think for the investment community, it will be interesting to see what they have to say about the operating environment and how they see things panning out for the year. we had microsoft and ibm last week both companies disappointed to the down side. those are things to take into consideration. for the valuation perspective, the stocks had gotten beaten up. the beginning of the year is positive nasdaq is back to positive again. what is an exissue is the major

point for the tech sector and where it heads from here >> i wonder the negative sentiment has been overblown the fears with regards to some of the tech companies. they had to layoff, of course, because they did run too hot amid the pandemic. the guest i spoke to last week speaking about how the valuations on the tech companies are cheap as well. still on the cheaper side. could offer value at some point, too. it is about whether this is that time or whether this is that point. >> i want to say alphabet as well is a litmus test for the economy. the ad spend seems to be cyclical if a recession is coming or a low slowdown is coming, they will pull back on the money allocating to advertising. that is something we can get out of the alphabet numbers.

i want to turn to european markets. it is a huge week for european markets. eurozone gdp and germany gdp coming in lower. tomorrow we will get more details on other countries and detail on inflation. why is inflation important we had the spanish inflation number come in this more than much higher than markets anticipated. people were surprised there. spanish cpi at 5.8% versus the forecast of 4.76%. sticky at 7% arabile, we have the ecb meeting on thursday. >> we haven't talked about that. >> we have four days to get to it we have 50 basis points priced in this inflation print from spain will be interesting. some people say it could give the hawks on the committee more impetus to be more hawkish

>> it is the sentiment at davos as you noted, madame lagarde was speaking about staying the course as i suppose it makes sense that 50 basis point hike happens, but her continuing to say the same possibly after this. this gives clear indication to that argument. >> it is still early days. this is only the spanish print we have to see what happens with the general eurozone print and germany will come out later of the week to your point, one of the things that struck me and this is the first time you and i have spoken about it since i came back from the world economic forum is how hawkish central banks are. for me, one of the major takes is they will keep going until they are confident that information will not only get at 2%, but stay 2%. that means we are in for a higher for longer interest rate

environment. the big question is whether markets are priced for that. markets, so far, if you look at interest rate curves, will hike and start cutting. >> that pivot is not assured we talked about it last year it is not assured. the question is how long do they stay at those levels that will be interesting quick look at the futures. we look to be headed negative in the u.s. opening later today that is it, however, for today's show my name is arabile gumede. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. investors gearing up for the busiest week of earnings season. wu one trading desk notes the real action may be another week away. it is not just earnings. central bank trifecta in the works. the fed prepares to kickoff the first policy meeting of 2023. tech in charge the new contrarian trade that has the nasdaq on its longest weekly w