it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. investors gearing up for the busiest week of earnings season. wu one trading desk notes the real action may be another week away. it is not just earnings. central bank trifecta in the works. the fed prepares to kickoff the first policy meeting of 2023. tech in charge the new contrarian trade that has the nasdaq on its longest weekly winning streak since

august. speaking of rallies, continue to watch shares of tesla after the best week for that stock in a decade china has an answer to the wildly popular chatgpt app one stock is surging on that news it is monday, january 30th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan let's kickoff the hour with the check on u.s. equities after a mostly positive week for stocks the previous, the dow coming off a six-day winning streak and the nasdaq off a 4% gain which is the fourth winning week in a row. on pace, by the way, for the best month since july. futures on the heels of all of that somewhat down

dow jones industrial average down 217 points. nasdaq down is 157 all of this ahead of the earnings season. you have 100 stocks in the s&p 500, 20% of the index, reporting this week as you see there thursday is the busiest day of all of them with the three as. alphabet, apple, amazon out just to name a few on thursday. don't get too excited. according to data compiled by bank of america, the average gain for the s&p 500 during the busiest week of the earnings see season is .1%. it is the week after the busiest week after earnings season ends

up 1.4%. busiest week and week after. watch what happens next week it is not just earnings. investors bracing for a central bank triple threat with the fed first policy decision of the year due on wednesday. then decisions from the european central bank and the bank of england on thursday. speaking of central banks, check the bond market right now. 10-year treasury is a hair below 3.54%. 2-year treasury at 4.22% 30-year treasury is 3.65%. a rise higher in just about every part of the yield curve. in energy, oil is back below $80 for west texas intermediate. down 30 cents. $79.30 off .30% declines for ice brent crude $86.47 in crypto, over the last

five or six months we talked about the range of 16,000 to 18,000 now we reset that higher we will see if it stays higher we are watching the 23,000 level for bitcoin. below that a bit above that declines for ethereum now below 1,600. we have a busy morning shaping up overseas. let's get to london and joumanna bercetche with the early trade in europe and the big movers there. good morning, joumanna >> that's right, dom so much going on here. earnings coming up as well as the central bank meeting and bank of england. you see the mood today is negative all trading on the back foot dax is down .60% german gdp is below expectation.

the beginning of the contraction. that is not good numbers from germany this morning spain is down .20% the inflation print came out higher than expected this morning coming in at 5.8% against the forecast of 4.7% telling as we head into the ecb meeting especially given the fact that inflation so far to the down side. corporate news now with ryanair posting a record third quarter profit of 211 million euro which beeat expectation the budget carrier warned of a lost in q4 ryanholdings is down 2%. and unilever is up a bit the new ceo hein schumacher will

take over on july 1st. nelson peltz strongly supports the new leader finally, phillips with positive reaction. the company reported a net loss of 106 million euro in q4. bigger than the 16 million euro loss than expected despite on posting a beat on sale notice pe -- sales in the period. it will cut 6,000 jobs by 2025 people are reacting positively, i guess, to the restructuring an floun -- announcements from fphilips, dom. thank you. we have the latest in corporate news with pippa stevens. >> baidu is releasing a similar chat service this march.

the company is planning to imbe it in the main search service. volatility involving shares adani and many publicly listed subs subsidiaries some $50 billion in market value wiped out last week. this despite a 50-page response over the weekend to a short seller calling it an attack on india itself adani's response failed to address the core allegations of the report bp is trimming outlook for oil and gas in the latest forecast the company arguing the issues brought on by the russian invasion of ukraine will push countries to pursue greater energy security over the next decade with the emphasis on renewables >> thank you, pippa. back to the broader markets with two trading days left in

the month. majors are sitting up pretty s&p is up 6% nasdaq up 11%. as the saying goes, so goes january, so goes the year. that bodes well for the next 11 months since 1950, when the s&p is higher in january, the year overall has been positive 86% of the time with the average return of 12% let's talk more about this and the busy week ahead with ryan detrick. ryan, we turn to you often times on air and on social media for some of the big statistical measures you look at what stands out to you for 2023 just three weeks into it >> dom, thanks for having me good morning you laid it out there. the strong start to the year so goes january goes the year.

that is a good track record. here is another one. when the year before is down, okay, and january is up 5%, we're not there yet. you tell me there's a chance that full year has never been lower. up close to 30% on average last time in 2018 and 2019 that is one way to look at it. when i look at the market and i see the risk-on things like high beta out performing low beta, that is a 180 from 12 months ago. we are seeing the right leadership we are on record of saying october was the low. the low of the bear market we said that many times. we think likely this year will be better than most people think for stock investors. >> we have a lot of moving parts, ryan. the fed and interest rates, you could argue, the biggest driving force behind the market declines last year along with

geopolitical ricsks as well. is it as simple to say this year is buying the stuff that was beaten up last year and selling off the stuff that was good last year or is it more nuance? >> it is more nuance you mentioned the nasdaq we don't think technology and communication is a huge winner this year. we like cyclicals. we don't think there is a recession. i know not many people are saying that. we see a strong consumer look at what american express and visa said. things aren't perfect. we will avoid a recession. we are sticking with the cyclical value names industrial and financials. materials are turning higher copper and nickel and zinc i think the concept being -- last year, yes, utilities and staples did better relative. we don't think it will lead this year we think technology again is even weight.

it is nice to see that coming from tech. we know it makes up 25% of the s&p. that is important for this bull market to continue we are thinking it is a new bull market >> ryan, you and i were around in the great financial crisis. we have been in this u.s. centric and now global zero interest rate policy for a long time you could argue a generation plus of investors who have never seen a rising interest rate environment and inflation exacerbated that how can you use history as a guide if we are in what some call an unprecedented market >> did you just say we're old, dom? >> i did >> nice way of saying that at 5:00 a.m one of the four dangerous words. this time is different we really are seeing coming off covid and supply chain issues and all of these things. there are differences.

at the end of the day, look at the u.s. dollar. when the u.s.dollar is strong, dom, things don't do as well it hurts global earnings we talked about that a bit the fed has one more rate hike take their foot off the pedal. others will hike more. the dollar is on a downward pressure history tells us, at least the last 20 years, a lower trending dollar is a tailwind for risk assets we think that is the case. we are in the middle of earnings season earnings have not been that great. more big names are coming. the dollar is weak that could be a tailwind the reason it is not great with earnings is the spike in the dollar last year the dollar lower is the key to the whole thing. the fed is important, of course. the dollar trends lower and that is a tailwind that people are not giving credit for. >> that is the theme with the mega cap earnings. ryan detrick, thank you very much >> thanks, dom

appreciate it. when we come back on the show, apple's manufacturing move way from china entering new uncharted territory. out on bail. prosecutors targeting sam bankman-fried not letting him off that easy yet. and shares of intel coming off an ugly session after an uglier earnings report what does it mean for the broader chip sector? a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns from this commercial break. (woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business. unlimited premium data. unlimited hotspot data.

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welcome back time for the big money movers. samsung electronics. considering cutting chip production according to the korea economic daily this comes among concern of the industry that the giant will post a first quarter operating loss with the slowdown in demand in the holiday season. the shares closing down 2% in korean trading next up is tesla shares off the best weekly performance since may of 2013 with the 33% gain in the time span. this is better than expected fourth quarter report after musk is saying they are on target for 2 million vehicles this year this comes on the six-month decline with the stock following 40%. it is off 1.5% in pre-market trade. lastly, apple. key apple supplier is making

airpods in india to be chipped to vietnam the news, if confirmed, would mark a step in apple's push to expand production outside of china. the apple shares off 1.3% in the pre-market trade. still on deck for the show, another record for james ca cameron's "avatar" sequel. we have the top enngtrdi stories when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world.

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we have a batch of housing data out this week. including the s&p shiller home price index tomorrow c construction spending on wednesday and then another potential rate hike for the housing sector both for buyers and sellers. joining me is brad dillman we turn to you, brad, for the looks on the housing and economy. as things stand now, we know the housing market is slowing down just how much could it slowdown in 2023? >> great to be with you again. it could slow down further we are looking at the fed and what will happen in labor markets as well. i think right now we could also look at the theme of slowdown to moderation what i mean by that is something

like the shiller index to 8.5% from 9%. the index level is moderation from month to month. that is the first indication we are working with the theme of moderation >> now we have seen some of the data come out recently with regard to housing starts and building permits we know the caveat here is those are often very volatile numbers and jump around month to month based on weather what can you read into the near-term trends of housing starts and building permits? will we see any slowdown furs out because of the lack of activity in some of the market >> single family starts have slowed down. that happened with the mortgage rates in the last six months to year housing starts with five units or more have been shocking strong desk pite the fed hike.

that data in general is showing that the u.s. is still supporting housing maybe more housing than we thought would be the case. when we look at the amount of housing under construction and basically a little too much in the pipeline if we click to home builders, they are more positive they talk about cancellation rates coming down and traffic being somewhat normal. they are a bit positive. we look at how much is under construction and that is to be concerned about. >> the inflation story or narrative over the last several months and quarters is centered on food and energy real estate and rent specifically is a big deal can we expect some of the rent rates and growth in rents to slow down as well because of the overall housing slowdown >> yes we are seeing annual rent growth slowdown particularly the new lease side when that data does flow through into more timely measures that are used in the cpi, we should

see that contribute to the slowdown in cpi inflation. the cleveland fed put out a great paper on this. they updated the methodology by putting in the rent growth index. it is slowing down faster than they think over inflation and shelter. >> brad dillman, thank you very m much let's get a check of the headlines in new york with frances rivera >> good morning, dom america saw nationwide protests after the release of the body cam footage shows memphis police officers beating tyre nichols who later died in the hospital the memphis police department says it is disbanded the so called s.c.o.r.p.i.o.n. unit all five members belonged to the unit formed to combat violent street

crime in 2019. and a weapons facility reports that three drones were shot down over jerusalem the chiefs and bengals battling for a spot in the super bowl s>> here's the pass what a catch >> cincinnati fought back to even the score up on the road. game tied at 20-20, but the ball in mahomes' hands and a personal foul got the chiefs in line for a field goal winning 23-20. jalen hurts in the game with the eagles and found the end zone four times.

they beat the 49ers 31-7 philly win ruffling the feathers of everyone in new york city the empire state building said it hurts us more than it hurt you as it changed to red to celebrate the chiefs win the stage is said for super bowl lvii in arizona when hurts and mahomes take the field the first match up between two black starting quarterbacks the. for monday morning, dom, you are set. >> i was watching the games with friends and we all saw the empire state building and in this area, a lot of giants fans. they were bitter >> yeah. they need to change that to red. >> congratulations to philadelphia and kansas city frances, thank you. straight ahead, a price hike for prime members.

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investors gearing up for a marathon week of trading earnings season shifts to the busy period. the fed set to issue the latest rate policy decision futures right now pointing to lower open. president biden and speaker mccarthy looking to avoid drama

with the debt ceiling. they are set to sit down to try to hammer out a deal. and sam bankman-fried back in hot water the accusations by prosecutors that have them looking to overhaul his bail conditions it's monday, january 30th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan it is right around 5:29 a.m. here on the east coast here is how your trading day is shaping up with the dow off the first six-day winning streak since october and the nasdaq with the fourth positive week. futures are off. the dow implied lower by 207 points s&p down 37. nasdaq down 155. technology continues to be the epicenter of the late market volatility in the bond market, yields are drifting higher across the yield

curve. on the short side, 2-year treasury at 4.2% the 10-year treasury yield at 4.54%. the 30-year long bond at 3.66% u.s. benchmark west texas intermediate below $80 you see here breaking the two-week winning streak last week those futures for u.s. benchmark crude are off 50 cents or .50% similar loss for ice brent crude. down 36 cents to $86.30. natural gas over the last year has been volatile. we have now seen new lows over the course of the year to $2.71 for nat gas per million btu. let's check on the top stories with pippa stevens >> thank you, dom.

president biden and house speaker mccarthy are looking to talk over the debt ceiling they will meet on wednesday. in an interview yesterday, mccarthy said he is looking forward to discussing the reasonable and responsible way to lift the debt ceiling with the president. he says he wants to address spending cuts during the talk, but he pledged cuts to social security and medicare would be off the table. tiktok ceo has agreed to appear before congress the wall street journal reporting that he will appear before the house energy and commerce committee on march 23rd this would mark the first appearance of the tiktok ceo before a congressional panel and comes amid the scrutiny of the chinese social media app and amazon is raising delivery fees for users of the prime fresh grocery service on february 28th. amazon fresh orders of less than $150 will incur delivery fees up

to $9.95 currently most prime members outside new york city spending $35 on the amazon fresh grocery qualify for flree delivery. and nissan and renault is agreeing to revamp the alliance. they will move the shares up to 15% in the french trust. nissan will invest in renault electric vehicle arm the move still needs to be approved by both boards. dom. >> pippa, thank you very much for the headlines. another rough day shaping u for intel after the ugly trading session on friday and uglier fourth quarter report. that stock is down8% in the last week adding to the 40% decline in last few months

the semi conductor is up 17% ths year out performing the broader market and coming off the longest weekly winning streak since august with micro devices waiting in the wings reporting this week as intel is the first shoe to drop. could we expect positivity joining me is patrick moorhead at insights and strategy we look to you for some of the insights we have here. i wonder if the outlook for semis that bad is intel a foreshadowing of things to come >> first off, it is important to separate the different sectors of the semiconductor market. there's memory that has taken a beating over supply and lack of

demand and a price war with micron and samsung there are markets that amd and intel and nvidia operate in. then there is the analog markets which are serve markets like the automotive and industrial iot and things like that right now, memory has come in and out of its beating i think what we are looking at right now is the very high priced, high asp, high profit margin challenges in the digital space for amd, intel and nvidia. i think that amd will perform better than intel did when it shows up primarily because it serves a few different markets than intel does. amd also is insulated by its giant acquisition links which cuts out the rough edges and

operates in spaces with more durability than intel. >> so if you take a look at the reasons why you mentioned certain specific parts of the market like memory and graphics and server and data center and that sort of thicng if we look at the out performance in 2023, we see nvidia and amd and some others do well. does that say there is a focus on the higher end shifts especially for nvidia and especially as we hear more and more about things like machine learning and artificial intelligence, a la, chatgpt? >> long-term, the demand for commute and work loads for chatg

p -- chatgpt and open ai means we are in a level of uncertainty for at least six months where we question that demand i believe that the pc market will remain in a trough for probably another six months. the data center market is split into two markets enterprise and cloud intel showed the enterprise market is way down that's one of the challenges that i see for this market moving forward when amd comes out tomorrow, we will get a glimpse of how cloud did. based on the layoffs of the cloud giants, i don't think it's going to be very pretty for the cloud build out. the cloud build out ebbs and flows every six months about six months more of short-term challenge >> you mentioned cloud

i want to get the brouader take on tech. note from bank of america's trading desk over the weekend saying in part that the performance in the nasdaq 100 this year, most strategists believe almost all other regions and sectors are better longs than u.s. and u.s. tech. we are presented with a rare opportunity where buying big u.s. tech stocks is a contrarian call is this the reversal, patrick? is tech a contrarian call? is that why out performance happening in 2023? >> you and i have been around a long time. this is the way things swing tech was the buy and now tech is a contrarian view. i think investors need to look at it from a long-term perspective and ask are consumers and businesses better off with high technology moving

down the line? you have autonomous cars coming up you have the build out of the industrial iot you have things in ai that most people think could never been done before that are just coming to the surface with chatgpt. tech is a long call right now. i believe that it is going to be the driver of the world economy for the next decade. >> all right patrick moorhead thank you very much. we will see you soon coming up on the show, prosecutors looking to clamp down on sam bankman-fried over allegations of potential witness tampering. the latest in the continued fallout of ftx's collapse. as we head to break, some of the top trending stories this morning. the "avatar:way of water" becoming the highest grossing film of all time surpassing former number four,

"star wars." a zoo in finland is prepared to return two giant pandas on loan from china because it can no longer afford upkeep. they were brought to finland in 2019 a final decision will be made in february. and new york city shattering the record for the longest winter without snow. that record set in january of 1973 the lack of snow also hitting other east coast cities like philadelphia and boston. it should be noted that february is typically the snow snowiest h for the east coast maybe the worst is yet to come "worldwide exchange" is back after this

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." prosecutors in the sam bankman-fried are asking to amend the bail conditions for the disgraced founder of ftx over alleged witness tampering the defense team pushing back over these al galegallegations. we have mackenzie sigalos here with more. what is the prosecution asking for the terms of the sbf release and platform and the move of witness tampering.

>> dom, prosecutors say sam bankman-fried contacted the general contractor who is involved in the app signalled on january 15th saying he would love to reconnect to see if there was a way to quote have a constructive relationship and use each other as resources when possible or vet things with each other. now the u.s. attorney's office for the southern district of new york said this language suggests an effort to influence a witness' potential testimony they claim that sam bankman-fried had been in touch with other current and former ftx employees to improve his relationship with witnesses to testify against him could constitute witness tampering because of this, the government is restricting the use of signal and other encrypted messaging apps and ban him from talking to

current and former alameda employees unless he is with the attorney or has the approval of the government >> what are the next steps here? when do we hear from the judge about whether or not those conditions are acceptable to him and the court given the new witness tampering allegation >> we should have clarity soon sam bankman-fried's lawyers filed a response to the letter on saturday which they did not push back much they took issue with the blanket ban on the messaging apps. lawyers had a counter proposal to be a select list of witnesses he would be barred from contacting rather hundreds of employees are off limits we did get insight into the judge's thinking and a document posted to the docket this weekend. the judge said neither said provided evidence to back up the claims

he gave them until today to file some sort of record of the encrypted messages to substantiate arguments. >> meanwhile, bitcoin is up near the $23,000 mark over the weekend. best performance we have seen in months are crypto prices immune or shaken it off or are there other shoes to drop with bitcoin because of ftx's issues? >> it is mostly priced in and dropped off by investors bitcoin is slightly down this morning, but up 40% this year. its best performance since august analysts believe that has to do with weaker macro data and hope we might see looser monetary policy because of it there is optimism because of slowing inflation and trending down of employment and wage data, the fed could reverse or pump the brakes on the rate

hiking strategy which would be a good thing for risk assets bitcoin doubled since the start of 2023 which appoints to the institution led rally. if you bought bitcoin in 2019, you were back in profit when the price was around the $24,000 level. >> this is curious i have one last point here if you look at bitcoin prices, is there any feeling you are getting from your contacts about if there is a breakout ahead or will it come back down to the $17,000 range we had before? >> it is close the price of bitcoin at $24,000 level is close to the 200-day moving average the key threshold that people look for and if you break above that, it will stay in the mid $20,000 range. a lot of people look at the event for bitcoin next year as a

breakout moment for the bull rally. >> mackenzie sigalos, thank you. on deck for the show, stocks looking at losses pre-market as investors gear up for the busy week of earnings and fed policy meeting and key jobs data. our market panel lays out what you need to watch in the trading week ahead it's a very busy hour just a ahead. we're back after this. [clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or... [whistles] we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities. create more equal opportunities. [clap] it's time for business to show its true worth. because it's not goodbye, world. it's hello, team earth. [clap]

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welcome back time for the wex wrap-up as we close in on the 6:00 a.m. hour tiktok ceo agreed to appear before congress. the wall street journal reporting that the ceo will appear before the house and commerce committee on march 23rd and unilever replacing the

ceo. hein schumacher will take over in march. and apple supplier is moving to india for parts of the apple airpods. and china's baidu is launching a similar chatgpt. it will merge into the current software. and tesla shares surge 33% for the best week since may of 2023. and a partnership with lords town motors in 2021 and we have around 100 s&p

500 companies reporting. on deck today is whirlpool and nxp semiconductor. tomorrow, we get the s&p shiller home price index and earnings from gm and pfizer and electronic arts and snap just to name a few the eu will reveal the growth figures. on wednesday, the fed's latest policy decision at 2:00 p.m. also watch for adp employment report numbers and jolts numbers and peloton and meta reporting and alphabet and amazon and apple and interest rate decisions from the european central bank and bang of glend

england as well. we get earnings from cigna as well with all of that on tap, let's see how markets are set up to kickoff the trading week futures off. dow off 192 points let's bring in delano saporu and joseph fahmy with us vau thank you for being here joe,the macro picture. it has taken me a long time to read all that because it is a busy week. what is on your mind this week >> the biggest thing is the technicals have been improving in january to start the year now the big question is is this a rally within the bear market or the beginning of the new bull market i don't think it has to be binary one way or the other. we could be in a range for a while. i think the fed meeting you mentioned coming up on wednesday

will give us more clarity. that is the key thing i'm watching if fed chair powell will be hawkish in his efforts to fight inflation or recognize inflation is coming down and the tone will be a little more dovish. i think the language from the meeting and the subsequent press conference will give us clarity to the next direction of the market >> delano, it makes sense. interest rate story, fed story, inflation story has been the biggest driver of markets over the last several months. is it fair to say the markets don't have a path forward to the upside unless there is some kind of not easing rhetoric, but w wait-and-see rhetoric? >> i think what we priced in 25 bps move from the fed. that is priced in. if we see something that is different or comments on the outlook we have not made as much

improvement in the inflation trends, you could see the market take a reinvestigversion back there is something going on with the economic unemployment report one sticky point is the tight labor movement especially with the december numbers a different movement on that front might help investors ease the fact that we have trends better from asia and different from consumers spending. that is a big theme going forward. >> delano, i mentioned this is the busiest week of earnings season we have 100 s&p 500 companies out this week. as a professional trader and investor, are you one of the people who takes positions or trades ahead of numbers or

should investors wait and see what happens with the week before they put money to work? >> yes, sometimes there is an opportunity to trade ahead of numbers. right now in the time where we see solid trend at the beginning of the year, a lot of what i have been doing is take positions in p companies i like. mega companies will report on thursday as you mentioned. i think investors could be buying them. i think what we have seen is companies have done a lot of things to make costs more efficient. the better efficiency on costs some will have numbers on the earnings front that are not as strong as in the past. we have seen that reported so far. we have seen better on the bottom line than expected. i think taking positions right now is okay. there is volatility that may come with that >> joe, is there a favorite part of the market you like right

now? we could be in the churn phase is something standing out as a possible thing for the shopping list >> the main sector i discussed when i was on in july of last year was bio-tech. i think bio-tech is showing great relative strength. big pharma has close to $200 billion in cash. they are continuing to do m&a. as more trials are coming back that were postponed due to covid, you are seeing more data. bio-tech will continue to out perform. that is the sector i'm focused on this year >> joe, is it small cap bio-tech or mega cap pharmaceuticals? >> i like them both. ibb is the way to play the mega cap names. xbi is the middle. both will do well. >> delano, what part of the market would you stay away from?

>> part i would stay away from right now is one area you could see pullback to make sure investors are vested in the oil areas. look for the volatility there. i ride high on the mega cap. i like to see them continue to perform. >> delano and joe, thank you that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. dow implied lower by 200 points. ept re "squawk box" picks up coverage next we will see you tomorrow and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

good morning buckle up for a wild week on wall street. we get you ready for the fed meeting, jobs report, busy week of earnings season overnight, renault and nissan are pulling back on their

partnership after 24 years i should say renault plus the fortune of the wr richest person in asia details on that straight ahead it is monday, january 30th "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm mike santoli and kayla tausche with andrew ross sorkin. backing off after a strong week. it has been a strong month p you see the s&p down 34 points not quite 1% the dow down close to 200. nasdaq is the out performer this month. down more.