last time this happened, the euro topped and began a 22% selloff. >> joey t. >> look how happy i am >> davita health care, trades at 11 times, 95% u.s. revenue exposure >> good stuff, mr. happy "the exchange" is now. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. the fed is about to hike rates again, the market is betting they'll be cutting rates before too long will powell be forced to change course can the fed engineer a soft landing? one of our guests insists it's not too late it's the busiest week of earnings this season with 20% of the s&p 5reporting. we have a few names we'll be

watching closely and tesla coming off the biggest week since 2013. carter worth says it is time to take profits or short it he joins us with what in the charts is making him say that. this rally has turned into a selloff. >> we're at or near session lows it's red across the screen the dow down 135 points. 33,850 the last trade there. off a third of a percent the s&p 500 on a broader measure is down 1% or 38 points to 4,032. at the highs of the session for context, we were down 7 points at the lows of the session, down 39 right at the lows of the session as we speak. the nasdaq continues to be that epicenter for volatility on the upside and the down side that trade heavier trade, down 175 points that's a 1.5% loss there the underperformer in today's

trade. let's look at key parts of the yield curve with a big fed interest rate meeting coming up this week and the busiest week of earnings season for s&p 500 companies. two-year treasury notes, 4.261%. the 30-year long bond, 3.662 if you look so far, we're only about four weeks into a trading year for 2023, but three stocks in particular, either tech or tech related have been driving the upside action. that's tesla, up 39% nvidia up 32%. amazon up about 20%. these three stocks all had marked downsides throughout the course of 2022 those thrown-away stocks because of rate and multiple worries are amongst the biggest gainers this year we'll see if that trend continues. >> this will be a theme

throughout the show. thank you very much. let's get to the big discussion of the day. is this about to be the fed's late rate hike is a reversal at hand? my next guest said fed sentiment is peak hawkishness. similar to 2000 before the dropoff, 2006, and even 2019 he expects the fed to turn more dovish after tomorrow's meeting. joining us now is steve liesman and torson people don't like these data points because they feel too fatalistic they're like, come on. why do you think fundamentally speaking we're about to see a change of tune here? >> i think things are actually better than the labor market is appreciating for every month where inflation

continues to tick lower and the economy is still doing well, i still think that's a very important sign that if we get inflation by the middle of this year, the fed target of 2%, that means we're just a few months away from the market saying this inflation risk that we worried so much about last year is no longer the significant risk that we thought it was. >> steve, all eyes on you. >> i think the market is exactly where he says it is going. the question is whether or not the fed is there i think what's been interesting is that chart shows me, if they have that chart again, it's measuring fed speak. the fed has not changed its rhetoric despite the data changing that's why i also came with bullet points. i have three outcomes of this thing. if you look at the first bullet

point, the hawkish one, the fed fights against this move in the market they ruse more rehetoric. >> which is what people are thinking will happen tomorrow. >> and the second thing, you go your way, i'll go mine we'll figure out in the end what is right and then maybe the market has an outlook. so we're waiting for powell and company to get to this point >> what steve is saying, another comment cater said this morning, we all think the fed is cutting rates, the fed doesn't know it yet. >> last year they thought rates were going to 1% by the end of the year and they jacked them up to 4%. >> they don't need to have a strong head in four, six months

time, but we need it the fed can say we know one thing today, inflation at 6.5% is too high. that's why it makes sense that the fed is having this hawkish communication. the only issue now is if we have a soft landing and if the labor market continues to hold up well, if we have more labor holding and companies holding on to workers, we could go through the next seven months with a relatively short landing >> he's basically saying we're in a production recession, not an employment recession. the only question is has this ever happened before normality it takes a while to hit the employment part. >> if i can reply to what he's saying without mocking hymn but only say that the fed is mocking this idea. which they call the immaculate disinflation the fed does not believe this.

i don't mean to say that i don't believe it or not. what is immaculate disinflation? it's inflation coming down without much decline in gdp. >> which is fascinating. if they don't believe that, they should be the ones starting to pause or cut rates if they said we think this is possible, we'll keep tightening, then i'd understand that if they're saying it's not possible, it's just a matter of time until the labor market softens. >> they do not believe it's possible to bring down inflation without substantial loosening in the job market that's their theory. only brainard has a slightly different theory if they are right, they believe they have to continue to hike and tighten financial conditions the fed won't be satisfied until

job growth is 50,000 or less am i wrong about that? >> i think -- hold on. i think the important part of that discussion is why did inflation go up? did it go up because of demand because of stimulus checks child tax credit, or did it go up because of supply shorts. supply chains were strained, there was an increase in goods processes. if it were supply chains the reason inflation went up, in that case inflation can come down all we need to do is straighten out the supply chains. the fed is trying to quantify how much is demand and how much is supply. >> this is very important. >> it is, but there's no way this is not a demand-caused -- nominal gdp expanded almost 11% in 2021 after the rebound and more than 9% last year how is that a supply chain

driven inflation >> but hold on how can inflation be going down with the rate also going down? we're seeing very little demand destr destruction. the service sector is still doing fine, it's 80% broadly speaking the reason why inflation is coming down now is because of the supply shocks >> can i illustrate what he just said this is the phillips curve rip it up. rip it up. did you every hear -- nothing about inflation relates to unemployment you heard that joke. >> could it be it's just not shown up yet >> i want to underscore what he's saying. he's underlying a fundamental difference in the outlook on inflation from the fed and the market the market has embraced the idea

that its mostly supply shocks. brainard says if you bring down the things that cause inflation, supply chain things, energy things, you will get to a place where the over services, service sector will come down. there's my famous map which shows the differential and how the fed and the market were apart in june, then they got together and separated again the market would not have the fed's latest -- it rejected the fed's latest outlook >> there are signs to every's point, but we are seeing prices behave in a way that is nothing like the tight conditions that prevailed for the past 12, 18 months even the tesla price cuts, the ford price cuts, for me, it

feels like unemployment will be the last shoe to drop. >> nonfarm payroll on friday is expect the to be 200,000 the interest rate sensitive parts are responding, but broadly speaking this economy is just doing fine. if it continues to do fine and goes lower and lower on inflation, that is the best evidence of a support landing. >> tell me if i'm wrong about this what i want to see in the friday job's report is not so much the payroll number it's duration of employment. i want to know if the new inputs into the unemployment record are getting jobs quickly or -- duration of unemployment went down last time we hear the headline layoffs, if torsten is right, it means these folks will be getting jobs relatively quickly

>> temp jobs are down 100,000. >> that's a sign of weakness >> look at the claims number it's insane. >> you can't get better. it can only get worse, don't you think? >> we could have 100,000 the other thing is continuing claims is not going up it tells -- some people are telling me that's because people are getting severance, they will get that later >> it's a big riddle to solve. >> it's our full employment. >> thank you guys. as we turn to the busiest week of earnings season, let's get the action, the story ant the trade on three names that are about to report. we'll start with nxp semi. huge bellwether for markets for the economy. they had a tough time last year but started out january well on the heels of intel's big

miss, should we proceed with caution? kristina partsinevelos is it here with the story and jeff is here what are we watching >> nxp is highly exposed to the auto segment that's amazing news after news from other auto companies. over 55% in 2022 auto exposure >> i wouldn't want to be exposed to the auto market right now >> texas instruments just last week said auto is the only segment expect the to grow this could be seen as a positive for nxp given the weakness you see in pc, smartphones, data centers. this could offset that weakness. you have 45% where they're still

exposed to consumer inventories and weakness in demand you could say china is coming back how much can china offset this slowdown we expect revenue delines for this company really the auto exposure is helping it, but can it offset all of that? >> all right what do you think? what would you do with the stock here >> i'd want to be a buyer here this allows you exposure to the automotive market. what's interesting, when you talk about semiconductors, obviously they've been off to the races. we look at soxx or stmh, but nvidia has been up, up a and away this is a $46 billion market cap. it's mhigher beta.

just a year ago, this was trading $205 i like it here >> i have a lot to ponder. fascinating as well. we'll watch to see what they say. as we turn to caterpillar. got to talk about it the stock market nearly up 10% of course, china a main story line so much more to dig into >> you did that on purpose >> i didn't. dominic chu, what are we watching >> we're watching whether or not it tells us anything about the global macro economy caterpillar touches so many parts of the economy, their business can tell you whether or not about the world is doing okay we're talking just about $16 billion in overall revenue if you look at those numbers, there's three main parts

natural resources, it's energy and transportation, and it's construction the highest growth is expected to be in natural resources but the one you want to pay attention to, the biggest section is construction. whether or not that heavy machinery is being used. this is a stock that hit a record high in yesterday's s session. it's up 63% from september how much optimism is being priced in? the forward price to earnings ratio is actually below the industrial sector. it's trading at a discount despite the run up we're expecting a 4% move up or down on earnings, which is slightly higher than it has been >> jeff, you like cat here >> i do like cat i want to be a hold here due to 9 fact that dom just brought up we hit all-time highs.

margins across all their businesses are good. there's a couple of different moving parts, but whenever you see higher expectations, that means they've up for a the 50-day may be $240, and then add my september is shocking all right. moving on to our final name. mcdonald's they report before the bell tomorrow we want this as a gauge of how the consumer is holding up pippa stevens inviinsirsed she insisted thee gets this assignment. >> the consumer, are people still eating out are they still going to mcdonald's mcdonald starts to see some

trade down with its lower income consumers. last month, we heard mcdonald's is raising its prices 10% year over year. and the stronger dollar, fx and headwinds, how some of those started to alleviate >> accelerating the arches, 2.0. >> accelerating the arches >> 2.0 >> a key part of that is unit growth they want to open up different restaurants. staffing reductions. that will be a topic on the call tomorrow >> maybe it will all be robots in the future. pe is 35 times nearly.

what are you making of it? >> i'm not loving it we need more clarity on that food cost as well as labor costs, inflation we've seen sales quarter growth nine quarters in a row pe expect sales growth to slip after the fact, given that it was 12.3 last october. remember, it's at 52 weeks highs of $281. it's close to the higher move. you have to wait for a pullback here i'm not loving mcdonald. you have to be considerate when you see this type of velocity in a stock that's trading like a utility. if you look at this, it's been a better risk profile and a boring stock. sometimes boring is okay, but going into earnings, i'll have to sit on my hands on this one >> if we get a 2%, 3% pullback is that enough to go in?

>> i think we'll see a bigger pullback here. there's so many different ways to play it i'm looking for more of a 3%, 5% inte interest >> all right we'll leave it there thank you both coming up, the fed is 48 hours from hiking interest rates again. the market is betting they'll be cutting rates before long. the fed is not the only group gathering this week, we'll look at the europe ban on russian barrels. and a quick glance at the markets. the ten-year yield starting lower and then back above 3.5. dow is down 58 "the exchange" is back after this

welcome back to "the exchange." we're looking at crude and natural gas. have the energy markets gone from shortages to gluts. oil is below 79 a barrel nat gas has collapsed. we have an opec meeting on wednesday, could the committee move to take barrels out of the

market let's ask our guest. this is a different environment from where we were 12 months ago. what's the geopolitical impact likely to be >> yeah. thanks for having me on. as you said, opec is expected to have its committee meeting on the 1st of february. this is the first one to happen this month they'll review the market situation. the way we're seeing it right now is the group is unlikely to recommend any changes to the current policy the oil minister described the markets as balanced. it's unlikely for the committee to advise the group to change course, add more barrels or take some off, but they would rather

wait and see what happens. there's a lot of uncertainties you have sanctions coming on russian products on the 5th of february we have chinese demand which is uncertain. we don't know if the lockdowns will be eased. given these factors, i think they'll wait and see >> there's some differing outcomes a lot of people are calling for oil to spike to 100 a barrel these are physical markets where the demand could show up later on, but it feels like the bigger risk is to the downside right now. >> the expectation is that oil -- what we've been reading from bankers reports is that oil might spike up to $100 or more you have to remember there's limited spare capacity left.

the risk is there. what some traders failed to understand is it's not in opec's interest to see oil prices jump to 100 plus. this destroys demand it's in their favor to see oil prices become less volatile, stable, that's why they've happy with the current environment and they won't make any rash changes before they see a substantial change on the demand or supply side >> and i guess next week europe's ban or russian oil is going into effect. what are you hearing about that? >> on december 5th, the sanctions on russian products. this will tighten up the market. we've been seeing india and china are unlikely to save rush

that so, it's still unclear that's the uncertainty here. psychologically we would see more tightness in the market that's where you might see oil prices moving up >> we'll leave it there. thank you very much for your time coming up, this etf is quiet i will having its best month ever thanks to some best moves and beat-up tech names tesla having its best month since october of 2021. one technician says it is time to take profits and maybe to reshort it carter worth has his take on the tesla charts >> as we go to break, the dow heat map american express, goldman, verizon in the green microsoft, chevron, j & j are lagging. we'll tell you what's going on it

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welcome back a counter trend feel here today as the nasdaq is leading us lower by 1.3%. the dow down 75 points we started this morning with a much better risk feel. let's check mega cap tech. all those names in the red, worst decliner probably microsoft down 2%. watching for signs of momentum into the fed meeting can they surprise hawkishly at this point ark innovation is up 25% this

year they're having the best month since the inception nine years ago. what's driving this? let's look through some of the main contributors to the rally in ark k, you have coinbase, year to date, up 64% tesla up 38% shopify about a 39% gain we'll have more on tesla later on finally, totally elsewhere, johnson & johnson, mentioned this before the break, shares worse than the dow down 3.4%. a federal appeals court tossed out their attempt to put the talc liability into bankruptcy bankruptcy would shield the rest of the company you can see investors are skittish let's send it over to tyler for a cnbc news update after a weekend of protests over the fatal beatings of tyre nichols, a sixth memphis police officer have been relieved of duty he's been identified as preston

hemphill nbc news asked officials whether hemphill is seen on video firing a stun gun at nichols. the memphis pd says the investigation is ongoing in pakistan, the death toll from a suicide bombing attack on a mosque full of police officers has nearly doubled now 59 reported dead another 170 injured. many in critical condition in maryland, some incredible video. police found a car upside down after it crashed into a house. thankfully no one was injured. the house was empty. the driver of the car amazingly walked away from the collision police believe the car drove up a while before slamming into the house and flipping >> thank god that house was empty. thanks we'll see you soon. coming up, we're watching the usual economic data for signs of recession, there's one more barometer on people's

radar. we'll tell you what it is after the break. here's a hint. it also has to do with hiking.

welcome back

let's get into the weeds a little bit what is the data telling us about a looming downturn and what should you do with stocks in the meantime? let's ask margie batel and mike santoli who joins us as well there's a great piece by sam stovall talking about how equities tend to rally between the last hike and the first cut and maybe we brought some of that forward what do you think is going on with the markets here? >> i think we need a bit more patience it's not clear the fed is on the brink of being done with their tightening and they're ready to move to ease i think the market has gone a little bit ahead of them it all depends on the data they may be at rates higher for longer >> when i look through here, i see you like technology. you like the semiconductors. you like industrials

i just assumed you would say this economy is rolling over they'll have to cut. rates will be supportive why do you like these sectors? >> i think those are the concerns that have kept the sectors from really doing as well as they could i think for semiconductors, you need to be patient here and have a strong stock and it may take another couple quarters to work off the excess inventory. then the sectors will have nice growths. they pay some attractive dividends. i think the industrial sesector will benefit from stronger industrial activity. u.s. companies are competitive globally we think those sectors are attractive >> mike, i guess we could boil this down to should people be selling the rallies right now?

normally rate cuts are not a great sign, or can they think to themselves, no, the worst of it is already priced in it can be clear scaling from here >> kelly, i think you honestly come down the middle of those two scenarios. a lot of it priced in. last year you did radially revalue some of the highest growth sectors in the market you absorbed this historic pace of fed tightening. we're sitting here with investment grade yields, clearing in the 4%, 5% range, and it seems like corporate america can handle it right now. they made use of the very generous capital markets i think it's not as if the market is cheap, but if we avert the worst type of economic downturn, especially if it's rolling through parts of the economy and not the whole thing, i'm very rar wary of the textbok here's how things go at the end of a cycle because this cycle

has been unusual >> iguess this morning it caught my attention at deutsche bank, they say they're turning cautious on credit the reason is if you're bearish on the back half, credit is the place where people are piling in they're starting to think maybe it's overdone. i can't help to extend that to equities why would you be chasing a stock market rally right now when someone higher up is saying we wouldn't necessarily be chasing credit >> the people looking at whether you're being compensated for that risk, a lot of them are saying there's no margin of safety there at the moment it is a tricky spot. 18 times forward earnings to the s&p 500. it's not washed out. that's where we're sitting on the other hand, at the beginning of bull markets. there has been behavioral stuff this year that suggests a possibility that things could

take off better to the upside. nobody believes it's ready to happen >> the final word to you what would you say to somebody who is more concerned about a bigger slowdown in the back half >> i think it really is what the fed does, if they continue to overreact and overtighten, that's a risk. this cycle is different. we don't have any cycle out of kilter like housing back in '08, like the internet bubble, like the energy bubbles the economy is well balanced it's the big swings on the interest rates by the fed. we think any recession will be mild >> thank you appreciate it. michael before, before i let you go, can we indulge in my favorite annual exercise here. we have two teams going to the super bowl you tell me if we need to pay attention to the super bowl

indicator. >> the traditional original version of the super bowl indicator was if a team that was from the original nfl, original national football league wins it was meant to be bullish for the market that is not the nfc conference this indicator was stumbled upon in the late '70s it had never failed up to that point. of course at that point there was only a dozen super bowls the steelers won three of them, they're an afc team but original nfl. however, up until about the year of 2000, it had a high hit rate. it's random. completely nonpredictive since then, it's been a mess it missed six of the last seven years. like so many other things, we can blame the patriots they kept winning super bowls. >> if it's so bad, is it getting to the point that it's good again if you flip it and -- what

would be the new version >> if you want to go completely contra, last year it should have been a bullish year for the market because the rams won. this year, you choose it, if the -- the traditional version is chiefs winning this year would be bearish for stocks. vice versa for the eagles. if you want to turn it upside down, you can fade it. >> i think mahomes winning would be bullish for america >> there are many things every year that i enjoy less than this, this is not even top five. >> have a great show coming up, he will be speaking exclusively with dan niles. they'll talk market, fed and more still ahead, extremely attractive where one big shop is putting money to work overseas and as we head to break,

here's the sector heat map we havehave staples in the gree. rspeorrsnd technology are the wot rfme

if you think this year has been good for the s&p 500, you should sea what's going on in europe and china morgan stanley says international markets arestill looking extremely attractive seema mody has more. >> it's been a big story, the case for investing outside of the u.s. continues to fuel morgan stanley's emerging market funds saying emerging markets have been underloved for too long europe, latin america are outperforming the s&p 500 but each are trading at a cheaper valuation than the s&p 500 europe trading at 14 times earnings, latin america at 6 the s&p 500 is at 18 times

earnings right now in asia, as we know, china has been a bright spot as the country pushes through with its reopening plans. the fxi, up 14% this year. trading at nine times earnings that's a discount to the nasdaq. the evercore expects china to outperform they bet on the earnings in china to outperform compared to the use. alibaba is the biggest constituent, up about 90% from the 52-week low hit back in october of last year s >> these are incredible runs you wonder if we're going no a global recession you know, maybe china holds and we have a better cushion

any data on the reopenings >> holiday spending and travel data over the last week of lunar new year is holding up well. the number of national domestic visitors increased to 89% of pre-pandemic levels. movie box office revenue reached the second highest on record there are different data points which suggests the consumer is getting out there and spending >> it justifies the rally. arguably the markets are a little bit ahead of this i wonder now if we've gotten too excited about it >> it's euphoria if you look at the big gains over the last four weeks. that's why the earnings season will provide a much-needed reality check, not just for these stocks to see if profits grow but even the industrial side of the economy, too is that helping the ges and caterpillars of the world. >> and not to gloss over it, europe getting help from the

china reopening and the energy story there. we're practically talking about gluts of nat gas now >> that's why for a country like germany, it's a lot about expectation. going into the winter, it was how would they make the xhrg crisis come to an end. the story drastically changed, with that, a nice out performance in europe and germany. >> absolutely. people talk about it and ask about it all the time. seema mody, thank you. still ahead, tesla shares have surged almost 40% in january. one technician who called the run back in december says hit the brakes tesla is one of the worst performers in the nasdaq 100 today. jd.com is stggng ao.rulils only a fifth of the names in the green right now. we're back after this.ime she

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i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. welcome back to "the exchange." tesla rounding out its best month in more than a year with

it surging more than 40% carter worth reversed course in late december before the recent run saying to nibble long. remember we talked about that? now he said it is time to take some profits and maybe short it again. let's bring in carter worth. this caught our attention. there's difference between, you know, hey, it's going to stop going up and hey, it could fall precipitously. what do you glean? >> so, to be fair, this is almost turned into just a gambling chip before we talk about the charts you're talking about a stock that's trading 3 million contracts a day in the options daily. that's almost 7% of all options trading. we know if you think about the volume, 100 million, 200 million shares on friday, 10% of the entire shares outstanding turned over over the past six months, the shares outstanding, some 3.2

billion turned over three times. it's just a wild ride. so, i think it's the kind of thing where one has to have -- or try to have dexterity and use judgment to buy it or sell it accordingly. the first time -- it was nice to be short it wasn't great getting long at 138. it went down as low as 102 it did hit 177 that's where we flipped it around again it feels crowded steep. too far too fast news related, if you will. strength of the past three, four, five days. >> now we have people looking at whether they should take the other side of this, worried they'll experience the stock going up another 30% >> right you have people who got happy experience, three, four good trades people who returned themselves got it wrong each time that's why it is so treacherous. it has become the most active

option and to think that the options activity exceeds that of the qs, which is always top spot to my eye, it's a rally to a difficult level. and i think the play here if you're long is to exit with new money, i would be short. >> i would maybe take that a step further and ask you about the broader market will we head over a cliff come january? is it because we're talking about a fed cut that the markets have reversed course and started to take off again? >> what's remarkable is where we're trading right now is where we're trading at the end of november, which is to say we've effectively repaired all of the december loss. so, the question is we're kind of unch now. that's giving fuel or confidence to the bulls and the bears is it this week's data, earnings out of apple, google and amazon that will inform the market or

the fed? we're at a critical juncture my thought is we're headed lower, not higher. >> there's the camp that says i love the rallies because i'm looking to get out, i want to sell these opportunities basically the market is presenting, then those who think we already priced the worst of this in. some think we can avoid recession, it might be mild or have a soft landing. they think it's clear sailing from here. what are your thoughts >> yeah, clear sailing seems tough. i think it's probably tough sailing. even if the market goes higher, it won't be easy it will be belabored and heavy, struggling it's not the kind of situation where even if we are headed higher it will be something aggressive it would likely be fairly muted. again, my thinking is that we already moved quite a bit to the point where sellers are once again likely to return to the

market >> fair enough looking across the sectors, there's a bit of confusion here. we've seen places like technology ripping, at the same time usually between the last fed hike and the first cut you tend to see things most like real estate and financials doing quite well can you just talk to us about how you look at the sectors on a day when we're having a counter trend move where staples are leading the way and technology is the laggards? >> staples, health care, utility have been under pressure as there's been rotation to the more cyclical areas of the market you've seen the industrials, financials so some extent. but the most sort of curious is that very early cycle consumer names, restaurants, retailers, have really acted well and yet that would not make sense if you can say that in the context of a perspective slowdown just ahead.

it just shows -- i think we were discussing that earlier, that the playbooks that are so relied on are nefb ver that reliable. >> carter, thank you very much for your time. >> thank you don't miss short seller jim chanos tonight the gig economy is about to become profitable, what? that's according to one analyst who initiated uber and doordash with an outperform today let's look at tyler matheson getting ready. i'll join him on the other side of this icbrk.quk ea is something. as an expedia member, you can save up to 30% when you add a hotel to your flight. so you can have a bit more money, to do even less. hello, world. or is it goodbye? you know, it seems like hope and trust are in short supply.

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good day, welcome to "power lunch. busy hour for you here today coming up, stocks mostly lower as the markets prepare for an important week it is the biggest week of earnings, believe it or not, with 20% of the s&p 500 reporting. we will look ahead to some of the biggest names with market moving potential >> plus we've got the fed meeting on wednesday what will they do? 25 50 no way will they cut? just