tv Street Signs CNBC January 31, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EST
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[music playing] that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thank you for watching. [music playing] welcome to "street signs." we're live from zurich, milan and florence and london. i'm arabile gumede these are your headlines unicredit surges atop expectations with a record profit of 2.5 billion euro for the quarter. the ceo tells cnbc exclusively the test will be in sustaining
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momentum >> this year, we smashed through the 2022 targets and we smashed through most of the 2024 targets. i think the challenge in 2023 is to make sure we build on that momentum and go up and prove to everybody that this is indeed our new runway. and here in munich, we will have the ceo of ubs who believes the performance of the bank is strong despite the macro headwinds. >> the trust of customers in us is continuing to increase. if you look at the full year, it has been despite the challenges with the war and sanctions and move from equities to a healthy
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year the french economy is 0.1% of growth in the fourth quarter after the imf left the world economic outlook for the first time in a year the imf chief economist tells cnbc he is cautious about being optimistic >> the days going forward and at the same time inflation needs to be brought down to central bank levels if we don't do this, we are entering a period of instability and it will be that much harder to do it later the energy complex is front and center at the baker hughes meeting as they announce a new partnership. the ceo tells cnbc the deal can help the industry out of the current crisis >> the energy dilemma coming with affordability and
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sustainability and security. the lack of investment in the last decade is us seen short of energy now ubs and unicredit, two ma major lenders, reported results this morning geoff and joumanna have talked to the heads of the banks. 40% after posting fourth quarter net profit of 2.46 billion euro. twice the average forecast joumanna, you certainly had word from unicredit saying they hope to keep things going like this they have what seems to be a good fourth quarter as well. unexpect edly so >> yes, that is the key and the reason we are seeing a massive
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jump in the stock price. the stock was up 8 percentage points these results were well received by the investment community. coming on the back of the strong year indeed if you go back to april of 2022 which is when the ceo took over. since then, the stock has doubled. the key is the story of one increasing profitability and increasing capital returns that is an allure for people to be piling into unicredit let's talk a bit about the numbers and what we got out of today's report card. the interesting thing about unicredit, they are less exposed to fee generation activity than other banks. they are reliant on margins. not the story for unicredit. in fact, the commercial activity has picked up if you look at the net interest income. it is up 40% year on year.
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this on the pick up in volume and pick up in margin as we have been talking about with ecb hiking rates that is the tailwind for the bank the other positive story here is from a non-performing loan perspective, the numbers are low. sitting at 2.6%. that is actually down .2% quarter on quarter this is why the bank is concerning with the underwriting policies and the final point, they were on a ratio of 16%. that is higher than the ecb from the regulatory perspective with the buffer, they are paying back a lot to the shareholders in 2021, they paid back 100% of the profit back to investors it looks like that is going to continue as well as long as the bank is profitable the issue is the strategy they
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introduced at the beginning of 2022 things are pursueding -- proceeg well i had a chance to sit down with the ceo and asked if investors can continue to expect this type of profitability momentum going forward. >> if you believe and i believe the base for run rates is excess of 5 billion per year and trust formation is not down and we can build on that. you just put a multiple on it and we are still under valued. the momentum has been supported by continued improvement in operating performance. i was looking at it in the last eight quarters and being up year on year and we beat analysts 30% of the time. the market has not adjusted to the true run rate otherwise we would not beat it 30%. this year, we think we will
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protected by the overlays and other provisions we have taken that gives us time to continue the streamlines and transformation on the french side if you just believe the part of the story that this is a new run rate, we should be much higher if you believe that there is more to come, then even better i do think the momentum is supported by the delivery of the bank that is different from the past >> let's talk about your ratio which is high at 16% u unicredit in the past went through multiple raisings. you are engaging in share buyback. i see you raise the number for this year. shareholders position of 5.25 billion. higher than what people anticipating can investors continue to expect this type of distribution going forward especially with the ecb
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breathing over your neck >> i think the ecb is doing its job. we had con versation with the ecb. i think we do recognize the stepped up profitability and stepped up organic generation and the stepped up capital we are distributing and increasing capital that is the ultimate proof that is prudent with respect to the future, it will continue to be linked to the amount of organic capital we generate if we are able to continue to generate that organic capital and profitability, i have no doubt we will continue with distribution. >> and 100% profitability? >> correct. >> will you stick with that? >> it depends on my organic capital. what people don't recognize the capital can be above the net
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income if youare undergoing a great efficiency drive on our capital efficiency which is our case i don't think many others are in the same position. i can distribute at or above net income when it will stop i don't expect this to occur in the next 12 to 24 months we will stay at that level >> so you have it. a positive story all around if you listen to the words of the ceo. increasing profitability and organic profitability. it is still managing to increase the ratio which is impressive. of course, the market is reacting to his outlook saying that our running rate of profit for the year is around 5 billion euro we expect to continue to hit that run rate and the market is adjusting for the expectation. one last thing i would end with is steve and geoff interviewed
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him in davos last week and he talked about the macro economy one important point to raise here is the bank is positioned for a worse scenario than what is panning out that could be a tailwind for the bank if you look at the provision, it is for a deeper recession over what is to come. he was positive of the cost of risk position. arabile. >> it has been positive on the few issues the risks have mattered a lot. joumanna, thank you. we have been following that through the morning. here is another one focusing on the leanding side ubs with the fourth quarter rise in privaofits. it is warning of the uncertain year ahead with the rising interest rates
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geoff is joining us from zurich. the septentiment is to push on ahead here and really hope that the environment remains positive geoff, it hasn't actually been as easy to get that sense out of the market thus far. >> reporter: i think it is interesting, arabile, and good morning. it is difficult to do the contrast question with unicredit and ubs and what is the difference i think joumanna made a very telling point when she said that the key with unicredit is it is less reliant on fee generating income so has been cleaning up on net interest income as net interest rates have been rising and taking advantage of strong interest trends. ubs has been benefitting from high net interest income, but it
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is only offset some of the reduction in the inactivity it is seeing from clients that has taken some of the sail out of the winds, if you like. the bank, obviously guiding this line uncertain outlook from here on in which doesn't give investors too much to take to the bank having said all that even on lower fourth quarter and full-year revenue, they did generate profit before tax that beat expectations. let's have a listen to the ceo and hear how he characterized the period they just reported on >> if you look at the fourth quarter, we had a strong fourth quarter with commercial momentum we saw fee generating assets of 23 billion new money on the asset manager of 11 billion. that is a positive 9 billion that is where you see the trust of customers in us is continuing
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to increase. that delivered a very good fourth quarter even more so if you look at the full year, it has been despite all of the challenges we had to go through with the war and sanctions and move from equities to rates and very healthy year annual performance as well with a return of 17%. >> obviously still challenges around client activity maybe institutional is busier than personal or private could you talk about that? do you see any change or shift coming into this year as we've seen improved equity market behavior >> so, you see the flows are coming through the last quarter you saw the flows coming through a large part of the money is looking for professional market ac access the activity level still low
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that is what we don't see changing yet we do see positivity coming from china opening up we see some rise in the average capital markets which is a lead are indicator. all positive signals, but on the w wealth side more of a wait and see approach >> so that obviously impacts several business lines could you just give us a sense then as you look at the various business units and where you've been pleased and where you think there is still more work to be done >> if you look at all of the different business units, in view of market circumstances and the challenges, all business units really perform well. on the wealth side, clearly with lower values, you see lower fees
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coming through we have been able to pick up on net interest income in order to offset that to a certain extent. not a bad year on the wealth side good momentum on the asset manager. here in switzerland, also, very much helped by net interest income 14% increase as well there so, you see that rate is helping the businesses and that offsets some of the lower activity that we see on the more investment side going to the investment bank, if you look at investment bank over the whole year, actually a strong year. records set on the equities business in the solutions business and financing businesses as well however, half year, we saw a move from what we call the micro focus to macro focus which is
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more rates focused we had to be nimble and agile in terms of allocating quickly resources to support that business that performed really well in the fourth quarter you saw that with our skew to the asian equity markets that we were not able to benefit as much as our peers from the u.s. retail equity activities >> very early doors. we are tracking the chinese reopening closely. apac has been a challenge, i think, through much of 2022. what are the early trends look like is apac activity picking up >> from the flow perspective, even 2022 for us, it performed really well. so in terms of net fee generating assets, we increased 10% or 11%
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you see customers at ubs, we are number one in asia we are bound to get most of the flows in that region also on the investment banking side, we had a record performance on the banking side and advisory side as well in asia so 2022 was not that bad, actually, in asia. having said that, the momentum from the economic growth perspective is yet to come whereas china opening up we have seen the other signs in january. we hope that after the new year that activity will continue to open up and that the confidence in the markets continues you see the imf with more positive numbers as well if that pulls through, then china opening up is not only good for business in china, but also be a good support for the whole region to continue to
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grow >> well, it is interesting that we have the market reaction that we have. is it about the fact that perhaps ralph hamers was more measured on the outlook and did express the uncertainty about what the macro trends will lead to putting that aside for a moment, at least the shareholders have the benefit of the share buyback program. the bank instituted a $5 billion share buyback program through 2022 through 2023 which was ahead of the expectations, arabile, that they bought back over $5 billion last year. back to you. >> still early days. the market still negative on the back of the numbers. geoff, thank you so much for the coverage on ubs which we have been following this morning. let's head to news that has come out as well this morning. out of the ecb bank lending
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survey in lockstep with the numbers from unicredit and ecb ecb saying that the tightening in corporate credit standards was the largest since the 2011 sovereign debt crisis according to the lending survey saying that eurozone banks tightened credit standards in the fourth quarter and in particular, the banks continue tightening of standards in the first quarter of this year as well that rising interest rates make a substantial debt on loan demand all the risk that could still be facing these financial counters. these lenders at this point with loan demand to drop further. indeed, tightening of credit standard in the fourth quarter the bank lending survey pointing out those risks in the market,
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some of which have been highlighted by the ceos we have shown to from ubs and unicredit. the quick look at the market we have been negative for most of the morning yes, markets have been open for only an hour more than 2/3 weaker for the stoxx 600. we had seen the banks go a little heiigher if we go to the sectors. in the european markets, we expected the banks to continue their uptick that faded a little bit. we see the ftse 100 at .20% weaker as well really in lockstep with the rest of the market which is in the defense of smi the cac 40 is the best performing this week and it isis going down .50%. a positive january despite with
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the economic data from france is what we will discuss from a moment as well french inflation coming in at 7% on the year. that is up from 6.7% in december the french did enjoy expansion in the final quarter last year at 0.1%. charlotte is joining us for the number avoiding a recession with yesterday's inflation number having come out fairly weak in comparison and rising, it does tell you that there are still a lot of risks to the european economies >> you summed it up here it is avoiding recession, but for now. because there is some issue out there. the positive news on the gdp for the fourth quarter of 0.1% against flat or 1% that is weaker, but better than expected positive news compared to germany yesterday.
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when you look at the gdp numbers, you see the household consumption has fallen 0.9% due to the drop of food and energy which was offset by business and external trade this is reflective on the cpi numbers. we were hearing the household consumption was dropping at 7%. surprising with what we saw from spain yesterday. here it was 7% in line with expectations. energy prices up 16% food prices up 13% manufacturing was down one positive news was services down at 2.6% this impact of energy prices and higher food prices and in france with the energy price cap from
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4% last year and keeping the inflation lower and lifted that cap to 15% this is the issue in france with the inflation is a bit delayed from other european countries. this is the first quarter that could be the tightest for the french economy there is uncertainty for the french economy growing at 2.6% in 2022. again, avoiding recession of the quarter. the strikes we see in french at the moment this is the second day the country is protesting the pension reform they were successful last week protesting the government there and there is a question of how big this mobilization is in the
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coming weeks all of this coming together is seeing okay for the french government for now a lot of uncertainty for the next few weeks and first half of 2023 for france. >> for some parts, it is going against what was initially protected for the whole of europe it was meant to be a sustained weakness and deeper recession across the board and not in francise as in the uk charlotte, thank you let's get to our next guest here with regards to the data that is also coming out today with regards to the french pi and french growth numbers. still pointing to weakness that might be the element that the ecb president lagarde leans on to this week to say we do need to push on because things aren't necessarily as positive as we like them to be.
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>> absolutely. on the growth level, particularly the risks remain. after all, the french economy is not collapsing and inflation remained inflated. it is an easy choice for christine lagarde to favor strong inflation and growth is different enough not to be too worried. she will keep the hawkish message and push for a 50 basis point increase and open for more to come in the coming meetings >>ing nothing really has to change at this point she can maintain that stance how long before we begin to feel the effects of this really ramp up especially on the economies like france which is entering the protest period and like germany with the hangover from the gas price increases and the shortage
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which could really roll on a little later in the year how long before we feel the higher interest rates for longer >> it does feel that the picture in two or three months from here will be different. potentially inflation will show more signs of peaking in europe thanks to the energy component we might have lower numbers down the road that will come as a comfort for the ecb and growth will continue to be contained by high interest rates and consumption trends limited by the chasing of power crisis. we might be in an environment in a quarter from now where basically the ecb can say we have done enough we have to assess the impact on the economy and we reached peak policy at 3% to 3.5% the strategy then is to maintain that level of rates. not reduce the pressure or
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increase the pressure, but maintain it. the maintaining is a big part of the strategy. >> that is the interesting one as well. a mild recession, perhaps, is the expectation, as youput forward. in this environment, we heard from the banking sector. they have been positive, but circumspect of the future. does this upward move for interest rates continue to benefit them for the long term we have just seen from the ecb's own lending survey that tightening of credit is hurting loan demand. >> it is hardly a surprise we had a shock on interest rates. it reduces the affordability of getting a loan, particularly mortgage loans, but if you are a company and you have a ten-year investment plan and this level of interest rates, you would rather wait for a more affordable moment to do the
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inve investment i would say for banks, they would get decent net interest margins in the quarters to come. it would be positive here and we do expect this is one rare area of the earnings picture where we expect some interest expectations from now on i would say on the longer run, what is positive, it would take a lot for the ecb and other central banks to get back into negative territory we might see lower rates down the road, but not negative rates. that does input the long-term picture for financials. >> samy, that is all the time we have for the chat. samy with lombard odier. coming up, we have live from the baker hughes annual meeting. steve will speak with roberto ardenghy
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rgrgetet c cafaffefeinine.e. heherere''s s rerealallyly k keeee ststyryrofofoaoam m cocot. rgrgetet c cafaffefeinine.e. heherere''s s rerealallyly k keeee lelet't's s ususe e ththeses''lp ststyryrofofoaoam m cocot. ♪ t t lelet't's s ususe e ththeses''lp ststyryrofofoaoam m cocot. ththe e momonknke,e, lelet't's s ususe e ththeses''lp ststyryrofofoaoam m cocot. toto w whihichch s spapars hehen n kekeepep yoyourur e e welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede joumanna bercetche is with me. these are your headlines
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>> and best profits in a decade for unicredit. the ceo tells cnbc exclusively the key test will be in sustaining momentum. >> this year, we obviously smashed our 2022 targets and we smashed through most of the 2024 targets. i think the challenge in 2023 is to make sure we build on the momentum and go up and prove to everybody that this is our new run rate shares of ubs slip despite the swiss lender posting a beat on the bottom line with the 23% rise of profit ceo ralph hamers says it is strong despite the challenges. >> it is continuing to increase. if you look at the full year, it has been despite all of the challenges we had to go through with the war and sanctions and move from equities to rates and
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very healthy year. the french economy with a 0.1% of growth in thing e fourth quarter after the imf lifts the outlook. the imf chief is cautious over being optimistic >> there is a reason going forward, but at the same time, inflation needs to be brought down to central bank levels. if we don't do this, we enter the instability and volatility and it will be harder to do later. european stocks accelerate as investors eye a week of rate hikes for the central banks and after german retail sales plunge over the holiday period. baker hughes industries is
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teaming up for green hydrogen. the company is looking to accelerate new technology and working to decarbonize industries the collaboration was announced at the baker hughes annual meeting. speaking to steve this morning at the meeting, baker hughes ceo said the crisis in energy security is the result of years of under investment that he expects to see funding acce accelerate >> i think the jgreen hydrogen i part of it going forward it will have a role. ccs will have a role clean power is on display here direct capture is going to have a role we have to look at all of the technologies when you look at green hydrogen, there is a lot of issues in the united states.
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you have policies in europe. there is a focus on seeing how we can make green hydrogen accelerate past the next deck s -- decade >> let's go to steve now who is in florence. you need to catch up and move the industry forward >> reporter: the people at the conference, arabile, say it can be done and the technology is here we heard the head of the fortescue industries saying it can work what about for our country it has more natural resources than most of us. what about brazil which is blessed with natural resources and hydro carbon and renewable sources as well. let's ask the president of the brazilian petroleum institute.
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roberto ardenghy roberto, it is blessed with carbon resources that we talked off camera which was a blessing for brazil when it was developed. yet, with so many hydro carbons, how does brazil go on the energy transition with hydro carbons? >> good morning. thank you for having me. it is a pleasure to be with you. i think you mentioned how important brazil is in terms of being a powerhouse for energy in the world. either fossil or traditional fuels and renewable. what we can offer to the world right now is new technology and innovation that brings together not just renewable source of energy for solar or wind or hydrogen, but fossil fuels with the decarbon approach. you see a lot of need for energy
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in the future. you can see that the amount of energy that you will consume will increase over the years >> the decarbonize oil reserves by the time it gets to market is difficult. you told me it is actually brazil is one of the largest carbon capture operations on the planet tell us a bit about it some viewers may be surprised that carbon capture is working at scale already in brazil >> we have already in this south area which is a new area which started in 2006. offshore of brazil, we have managed a huge plant to come with the oil and gas to the surface. we treat the fuel and inject back to the environment.
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we reinjected 27 million tons of fuel in this particular part of the country. this is very competitive this is very good for the standards. it is good for brazil. we are able to offer our product, oil, that is very low in carbon and sulfur >> you think customers will be discerning where people will get oil and if it is reinjected. you think customers will be under pressure to only go for oil reserves which actually have carbon capture unit attached to it >> that is right we used to say that decarbon is not a word without hydro carbons. we need hydro carbon for a long term today,85% of energy supplied to the world is coming from fossil
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fuel 85%. if you lower that to 70% or 60%, this is a big chunk of energy we are using. we need to have a better energy in terms of emission in the future, there will be an expectation in the market which the consumer will demand a kind of oil or gas or coal that is low in carbon. when you see what is offered in terms of the paris agreement for reducing the global warming, it is not net zero. it is lowering the amount of pollution that you can go with agreement of the paris agreement. >> that is the important part of the equation and petrol is one of the biggest companies in latin america one of the biggest in brazil as
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well the government has a controlling stake as well. i'm fascinating to see what has changed in brazil. president bolsonaro who did not have the same attitude to the net zero process that many of us hoped. now president lula is back in again. how has that changed in brazil >> it is important to mention that as a functional democracy, the election every four years is good because we can change if necessary. that's what is happening in brazil we have hurdles. we have problems with brazil with people storming the palace on january 8th this has passed and now we are going forward. >> i know we can allude this to the storming of the capitol in the u.s. as well ing i don't think that was a
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serious threat to democracy? >> it was a threat to the democracy. the institutions in brazil are very strong and they keep the democracy in a very good state we are committed to sustainability and environment president lula and his members of his team are being very keen and focused on brazil as not just a powerhouse, but committed to sustainability. >> what does brazil want from international partners we had a con versation with the indonesian government. his words. the hypocrisy of coal and they want to get to net zero. you can't have both. mining vast amounts of coal in indonesia. >> when you consider the need
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for energy transition, you have also to consider brazil like indonesia and other countries, we have large amounts of population that are low income and very poor in terms of energy as of today, 3 billion people in the world are strained in accessing energy we have a country like brazil and indonesia and the issue is how do you provide affordable energy and sustainable >> that is the challenge we all have in society. roberto, it is a pleasure to meet you and learn about the journey and decarbonization of the reserves that is heartw warming roberto ardenghy, thank you. we have more
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welcome back let's look at how european markets are faring it has been a fairly interesting one of late with the banks having set the mood and tones with the earnings picture today. a busy week for the earnings picture across europe as well. interesting to see how things fare as well we did have news from ubs. reporting that $1.7 billion of net income topping the expectation there. even on the profit side topping things with a $7.6 billion number topping the 7.3 billion expected the market in the red across the board. perhaps pre-positioning ahead of the interest rate decisions that
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are set to come out this week. today is the start of the fed interest rate meeting. we have the ecb and bank of england that we will cover here live on cnbc the markets in europe are down for now. certainly that picture on the currency board. dollar firmed initially to what was distancing from the eight-month trough ahead of the central bank meeting this week you see the strength coming through slowly on the future side, stocks in the red is withat we are looking to give up in gains for today's picture. the dow jones industrial average giving up six days of gains. losing there stock futures were looking to cap off the best january since
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2019 on a more positive tone which is the aim of the game here stocks rallying to start off the year after what has been a brutal 2022. down for now is what we are looking to see the market go in the u.s. all right. interestingly, the imf raised outlook to 2.9%. that is up from the october propjection of 2.7%. it is below the 3.4% projection seen last year imf says china's reopening and easing energy costs and surprising demand in the u.s. and europe will help growth this year it warns high interest rates and the war in ukraine would weigh on global activity imf upgraded the forecast for most countries revising the china growth outlook sharply higher to 5.2% the uk economy projected to
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slide into recession this year according to the imf of the imf chief told cnbc that global growth helped rebound economic activity. >> a lot of resilience in the global economy in last quarters of 2022. we have seen tight labor markets in advanced economies. we have seen demand quite strong household consumption and business investment. we have seen resilience to the energy chrisrisis for the europn economies. you put this together and you have relatively stronger activity in the last part of 2022 that leads us to revive the growth forecast and it carries over to 2023 on top of that, the other piece
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of good news is the reopening of china's economy. that is going to power the second half of the year in 2023. >> the most important data point on thursday. fed reserve beginning the two-day meeting today and it is expected to raise the rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.5% to 4.75% despite the slowing pace of hikes, expectation that inflation stateside has peaked jay powell is expected to take a hawkish tone after inflation is not falling quickly enough market watchers to look at other markets for a few signs of what the fed and other central banks have in pipeline when they meet this week. last week, we saw canada say its latest 25 basis point hike would
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likely be its last as it plans to keep rates steady chile has started to keep its rates on hold. some analysts expecting a rate cut soon meanwhile, south africa raised its benchmark by 25 basis points that was less than expected in the market which was the 50 basis point hike on monday, kenya surprised the market by holding the benchmark rate at under 9% interestingly enough, ghana raising its interest rates by ab 100 points to 28%. still the highest in 22 years. the emerging market picture does offer a little bit of a sense for the more stable economies of the pivot which could be starting off a little later in the year it will be interesting to note if that does happen.
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of course, on the other side of the scale, let's remember that a lot of the emerging markets began hiking interest rates before a lot of the more developed nations. the likes of south africa hiking before the u.s. began the hiking schedule and before the ecb had done so, too a little bit ahead of the curve when it comes to this. the one to see inflation come down in the likes of south africa between the range of3% and 6% the midpoint of 4.5% is critical there. so far away from that figure at 7% chile at 12.8% for dpecember. that gives you a clear picture wanting to get back into the single digits which is the key aim. nigeria is easing their inflation number that number coming out a little bit than expected as well. for the fuirst time in 11 months
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that dropped to 21.3% with the inflation number from 21.5%. again, a clear sign that while inflation may be slowing, but it is not slowing enough to perhaps induce that pivot immediately. perhaps at a later stage that message may be one christine legarde and jay powell may be sharing this week. interest rates are the point to look toward to u.s. futures later today. of course, down is what we are looking at rightnow and a bit of an advantage to give back is what we will have with the u.s. open picture that's what we look like for today. i'm arabile gumede thank you for joining us on "street signs. orwi ehae"s nt."wlddexcng iupex
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it is 5:00 a.m. in the new york here is the top "five@5. tech stocks take a tumble. apple and amazon and snap and meta and more report it could be a key day for stocks cramer says so we are about to kickoff a bullish trifecta jay powell is kicking off the first policy moeeting of th year everyone wants to kn
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