it is 5:00 a.m. in the new york here is the top "five@5. tech stocks take a tumble. apple and amazon and snap and meta and more report it could be a key day for stocks cramer says so we are about to kickoff a bullish trifecta jay powell is kicking off the first policy moeeting of th year everyone wants to know if the

rate hikes are over. and helima croft is here to tell you why oil is slipping first, 54 years later, boeing bidding farewell to one of the most iconic planes. it is tuesday, the final day of january. this is "worldwide exchange. well good morning, good afternoon or good evening. welcome as always from wherever in the world you are watching. i'm brian sullivan good to be here with you on tuesday morning. let's jump in off the drop to begin the week of futures are lower again. dow futures off 100. nasdaq off 55. they were not down much, but accelerated. fair value is slightly in the green. again, not real sure which way the market will go dow futures are down this is off a 2% drop in the nasdaq 100 and nearly 1.5% haircut for the s&p 500.

only 12 nasdaq 100 stocks rose yesterday. the market by far was the worst of the year. as always, context is key. remember, we are still well higher on the year keep in mind, it is the best january for the nasdaq and s&p 500 in four years. how about that bond yields rose on monday back up 3.5% we are seeing 3.53%. fed kicking off another meeting mmeeting. oil has come down in recent days the price of oil is still back below $80 a barrel $76 here we are, opec, not just the fed, opec meets virtually tomorrow. we will see if they change output quotas. i doubt they will. you never know it is opec and opec plus

in energy, the bigger story is the drop of the price of natural gas. it continues to go down. getting close to breaking below $2.50. there were headlines i want to note this. today, russia reduced flows in the final remaining natural gas pipeline to europe brian, i thought the nord stream is blown up? it is a separate pipeline operating through ukraine the entire time. russia today reduced flows by 30%. the last remaining pipeline coming into europe from the south and flows down 30% keep in mind it has been one of the warmest winters in history a lot going on right now still with natural gas let's move to cryptocurrency bitcoin is up 38% this year. one of the best starts to the year in the recent memory of bitcoin. i don't mean a nickel and went

to a dime. crypto has remained red hot so far in 2023. that is how things are shaping up here. let's get a check overseas with breaking news from the european union. arabile gumede is standing by in the london newsroom. arabile. >> brian, thank you for that good morning breaking news coming from the eurozone gdp numbers critical to the central bank ecb meeting on thursday and the interest rate hikes. is 25 basis points expected? fresh off 0.1% quarter on quarter is the number to come out. it is better than the consensus which was for a drop of the same number 0.1% decline was the consensus which is what we expected to see. year on year, 1.9% positive growth number for the eurozone

the consensus for a positive 1.8% we are seeing a slightly better picture. perhaps avoiding recession if it is just on the marginal front and we are seeing the downturn continuing weak with levels across the board. still better off than initially expected 0.1% growth for the fourth quarter against the consensus of a drop of 0.1% speaking of growth rates, we had the imf come out to raise the outlook for global growth for the first time in a year the fund now sees growth of 2.9% for 2023 up from the october projection of 2.7%. revised number is still below the expansion of 3.4% which is seen from last year. imf saying china reopening and the surprisingly resilient demand in the u.s. and europe

help fuel growth this year they have warned the higher interest rates we are seeing as well as the war in ukraine would weigh on grow on global activity banking news with unicredit beating expectations and ubs as well that's the story then coming out with unicredit and ubs imf following up on the stories. brian. >> arabile gumede, i appreciate it just like that, imf raises the growth forecast. you can do that. you don't like the forecast, change it. let's get to the top corporate stories, including the likely filing of bankruptcy by one retailer pippa stevens is here with more. >> good morning.

the biden administration is looking to stop granting export licenses to huawei the u.s. security officials believe the company participates in espionage a claim huawei denies. they would like intel and qualcomm to continue bed bank and beyond is preparing to file for chapter 11 bankruptcy this week according to reuters, the timing is still influx. the retailer closed additional stores former president trump is suing journalist bob woodward and paramount global seeking $50 million. trump claimed he never agreed to

allow audio tapes to be revealed brian. >> that's a lawsuit as a sport partn pi pippa, thank you here is a anynugget to get r day going. with the drop yesterday, it is the best january for most indexes since 2019 the rally recently offered good news for bulls and maybe a little more if history is any guide. get this, carson group's ryan detrick notes when the santa claus rally is up and up the enter month of january, which it will be today, the full year does well. in fact, detrick notes when

those three things happen, s&p 500 has risen a full year 90% of the time with the average gain of 17% the bullish trifecta that is just history and every year is different. hey, history is a little bit on our side let's talk more about this were gene goldman cio of centarian you will not use it with your clients. this is not a guarantee of future results if you had to pick a start to the year, there are worse ones to have. >> brian, thank you for having me on the show ryan detrick, i'm a big fan of ryan we have seen too much of a rally in january last year, we struggled with multiasset classes january is a bounce back

if you look at the markets and why we shouldn't be bullish is valuations are too high with current levels the s&p 500 is down compared to a year ago it is not really reflected with rates and inflation. secondly, stocks continue to struggle above the 200-moving day average. the 200-moving day average for the s&p 500 is struggling to stay above that. and this is the big one. recession and earnings worries still need to be reflected in stocks you know, gallop poll shows 79% of us believe recession is coming the yield curve and pmi and retail sales all of that stuff. it is not reflected. earnings need to revive 5% to 10% based on high wages and tailwinds and reversing and profit margins falling we are concerned in the near

term >> that is the point that jim made on "fast money" last night. he is not a market timer he does more individual names. he noted, gene, interest rates and earnings rates, the valuation of the market is under 18 which is high jim being jim, he was talking about 2900 on the s&p 500. are you worried about valuations relative to rates and earnings >> you know, when you look at invests, as you know, you look at technicals and valuations and fundamentals valuations are pricey. fundamentals are okay. you have the fed the fed is at the point where they are starting to pivot or pause. we will get more news tomorrow we got a lot of economic data coming out from the valuation standpoint,

we are watching carefully. it is one leg in the investment stool. >> what would be the bear case for the rest of the year a lot of people predict a good year you maybe make a trough or test new lows in the summer before ending higher toward the end of the year that seems to be a consensus that is it that is the bear case in the near term and more bull case in the longer term? by that, 11 months >> long term i love long term, 11 months. >> the world we live in, gene. >> exactly for us, you know, we don't see the stock going back to the october levels we see a near term support level of 3t800 level.

that is the worst-case scenario. how do you see the markets playing out for 2023 first half of the year, we told advisors and clients you get low expectations with the mild recession and we have the fact that if we have rece recession, it could be mild and we price in recession. and the fed is actually working. i know people are surprised, but the fed has done a great job to bring down inflation at the end of the day, we believe the first half of the year is voluatile. the second half of the year should be better >> the longer air quotes longer term view which now is apparently 11 months

gene, we appreciate the view and insight. by the way, excellent choice of tie color this morning excellent choice when we come back, rbc capital markets helima croft is here oil making a move off $80 a barrel p why the demand story from china is far from over. plus, speaking of the fed, former fed governor roger ferguson will check in and we get his take on if borrowing stargog cos e inup and i'll ask if this serves as a hidden tax on working class families that is ahead. get up to 3.75% interest, and earn up to $250 when you set up direct deposit. sofi. get your money right.

welcome back everybody seems to be focused on the federal reserve interest rate call tomorrow they should. there is another to think about. opec the big question is opec and if it will keep the plan. it was cut on paper by 2 million barrels per day last fall. all of this when china demand is starting to pop and the markets are watching the russian refined products and more nerves around iran as drone strikes hit that nation let's tie it all together that one person can, he said, helima croft, head of strategies at

rbc. i was trying at 5:15 in the morning, i was trying to aad lib where in the world is helima croft. you are in florence, italy baker hughes meeting what is the mood what are they saying about oil so far this year >> we are in day two of the baker hughes annual meeting. first time back in three years in person. how do you basically fulfill the energy of dealing with energy security and sustainability and affordability? big discussion of need for investment to have the hydro carbon we need in the transition period and discussion of natural gas of th gas. it is not just destination a lot of demand for hydro carbon going forward with the transition for the governments

>> there is the macro. let's talk about it. what do you expect from opec and opec plus? any change at tall? >> this is the joint minister monitoring committee meeting not the full minister meeting in june the expectation is they stay the course on the 2 million barrel per day production cut there is no expectation that we will see any major shift in the opec policy. one thing we should pay attention to is if there is fears of rate hikes and production continues to weigh on markets, opec can come back into the market before june they say we are standing ready to put in a floor if necessary >> yeah. that is a key point that his royal highness mbs made to you

and me we may not meet until june in person, but we reserve the right to change your mind any time a lot of that will go with china, helima. i was showing stats that air travel is back to 90%. how does the china demand story -- how is it playing out and how might it play out? >> i mean, brian, we are seeing increases in mobility in china people are getting on trains and planes and subways i was in the middle east earlier and you had key officials in the major producing countries say we are not prepared to say we are completely out of the woods. we are watching what happens with chinese new year and potential rise of covid cases. the concern about fed rate hikes. on the back of the rise of energy prices. what you are hearing from the key middle east officials is they are cautiously optimistic

about china, but not prepared yet to add back more barrels until they have clear indications the reopening is going to last. >> then lastly the iran situation. you have drone strikes there is always something going on with iran is the market under pricing this or something to tuck away in the back of our minds? >> i think it is a big wild card story for the market this year benjamin netanyahu is back some say he is the most moderate official in the israeli government he promised to confront iran at the top of the agenda. iran is the threat to nuclear safety iaea says they have enough material for several bombs this is the key story to watch how israel acts to contain the iran nuclear ambitions. >> helima croft at baker hughes meeting in florence, italy

the ceo is from florence, italy. helima croft, thank you. >> thank you >> that is a meeting i would not turn down. all right. on deck, the big money movers, including collateral damage from the first salvo in the electric car price war. plus, another day and another state legalizing sports betting. top wished for hot spots for airbnb and a return to office those stories and more when wex returns. and relentlessly working with you to make them real. ♪ because grit and vision working in lockstep ♪ puts you on the path to your full potential. ♪

welcome back time for the big money movers on tuesday morning. first up, checking in on shares of the electric vehicle makers not just one stock, a group. ford and tesla in cutting prices on the mustang mach-e car. tesla is down today after falling 6% monday. ford, gm and rivian ticking higher they fell yesterday. rivian down 9% gm reporting earnings this morning. there is concern that tesla's move forward by ford could cause a price battle for electric cars. also nxp fourth quarter beat forecast on the strong sales of chips and the company hiked dividend by 20%. shares are lower with the

guidance below estimates. whirlpool posting a loss after the selling of the european business. adjusted earnings beat forecast, but sales dropped 15%. the appliancemaker citing softening demand and that issue has been resolved now they cannot meet demand. and paramount plus streaming service merged with showtime the move which has been rumored forever will take effect later this year. it is aimed at making paramount plus comparable to hbo max which is merging with discovery plus are you following that you have 100 different streaming apps they are starting to merge to look like -- cable tv. there you go all right. still ahead, 54 years later, boeing bidding farewell to one

of its most iconic planes. if you haven't already, follow our podcast if you miss the show, don't sweat it, listen to us on all of the major podcast platforms. stick around hello, world. or is it goodbye? you know, it seems like hope and trust are in short supply. [clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or... [whistles] we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities. create more equal opportunities. [clap] it's time for business to show its true worth. because it's not goodbye, world. it's hello, team earth. [clap]

your money hoping to but a bow on one of the best starts to the year in years. this year is all about last year now 2022 market villains are now

the heroes. will the fed kickoff the year with a rate hike? we have roger ferguson with the next move. what can brown do for you? u.p.s. results due out in 30 minutes. that could be a tell on the economy. this is tuesday, january 31st. this is "worldwide exchange. welcome back good tuesday morning ing thanks for joining us. nasdaq 100 with the drop on monday s&p falling 1.5% 12 nasdaq 100 stocks rose on monday futures are indicating a follow through on the selling side. nasdaq futures down 64 dow off 95 overall, context one day does not a trend make.

it has been a good start to the year can it last? maybe not. truist's keith lerner says this could be a mini rbi. the 50 worst performing stocks came in on monday with the average gain of 21.1%. last year's 50 best performing stocks are only up 1.9%. what do all of these numbers mean it means we have seen a sharp rotation from what people are buying out of the things that worked and into the names that got crushed last year. interesting. all this as bank of america notes fourth quarter earnings that we have seen so far are tracking for a 1% miss and guidance remains weak going forward. valuations for the s&p 500 are still almost 18 times forward

earnings which is still on the high end of history. a lot of numbers there bottom line, valuations are high rates are on the rise. the stocks that led this year were the worst performers last year i guess it is random but interesting. key headlines this morning including accusations of a violation of child labor laws by apple. how we might hear which donors helped sam bankman-fried pay the bail bond. pippa is back with those. brian, apple executives are accused of violating labor laws after making remarks and setting rules that curbed employees efforts to address the workplace issues and labor rights. this is according to the new report from the labor relations board. this comes after the nlrb announced ithad evidence that apple used anti-union tactics to stop unionization efforts by

employees. the judge named two people who helped sam bankman-fried should be made public. the public had a right to know who sam bankman-fried's sponsors were, but outweighed his argument for confidentiality the ruling is on hold pending appeal. and the biden administration announcing funding for transportation projects funded by the infrastructure law. the $300 million grant project to help complete the early phase of the delayed hudson tunnel to improve travel with new york and new jersey the president will visit new york city later today. brian, that tunnel could use work. >> if you go through the tunnel in a glass top car, and i don't want to scare anybody, you can

see water dripping through the top of the tunnel. think about this, pippa, the newest crossing of the hudson, from new jersey to new york is the george washington bridge which was finished in 1937 that is the youngest >> wow it puts it in perspective. >> that's it coal powered trains going through the tunnel good to see -- this is taxpayer money. good to see. pippa, thank you back to the top story. the fed kicking off the first policy meeting of the year and after several rate hikes last year, the investors are continuing to ease off the accelerator. the decision, of course, comes out tomorrow it is the first in the trifecta of decisions coming out tomorrow

joining us now is former federal reserve vice chair and fed governor roger ferguson. love your insight, roger w welcome back good morning what are you expecting from the federal reserve tomorrow not just the announcement, but what we hear at the press conference >> expecting a few things. one is the 25 basis point tightening two, to your point on the press conference, i expect them to observe that the inflation is slowing, but still far away from the 2% target. setting up for at least one, if not two more moves this year they want people to understand they are not ready to pause or pivot. i think they would be wise to recognize there has been some improvement. the final thing i would make is there has been a bit of movement and tightening in the system they want to wait and see how that works >> you think it is possible we

get 50 tomorrow and 25 in march? how would it look to you, roger? >> i think it is more likely to be 25 basis points tomorrow which is a .25%. the same for march and the same for may. that is a slight stepdown. the tony heard from the various policymakers that have spoken thus far are recognizing the tightening has already happened and it is okay to slow it down just a bit to take a read on how much impact they had on the economy. i think they have to recognize that some of the data coming in has shown that inflation seems to be peaking for goods, but not yet services they are capable of saying just 25 basis points this time. more to come >> why not -- i guess this is the question people have, roger.

let's say 25 and 25. that equals 50, .50% why not do 50 now? why do you think they have used this pattern if we put the wall graphic back up where they have d done it over time. take us inside the mechanism why they have do it like that. >> the mechanism is as follows first, every cycle is different. this time,as we know, they hav been a little wrong about the nature of inflation. they started late. that forced them to move relatively quickly and there are moments when they talk in a hawkish tone the jackson hole peech now they got into the place where interest rates are in what they think is restrictive territory which is their official first goal. get to restrictive territory as soon as possible get ahead of the train of inflation.

it feels they have done that now at this stage, i think they stepped down a little bit because they want to be able to do two things. one is not surprise the markets so the market is built in 25 basis points they have not made any effort to correct that there is no reason p to surprise the market at same time, they want to be prepared to keep moving because they are not really sure that inflation genie is back in the bottle that is why you get the gradual move, relatively gradual move. let's put it in historical context. normally rate moves have been 25 basis points and seeing the 50 basis points and higher moves is, a, historic and unusual. they are returning to the normal historic pattern that is, i think, why you are seeing the unusual pattern now return to something normal front loading 50 at this stage when the market is expecting more like 25, i think, would be

unwise >> you know, i want to talk about something else, roger, if i can. off topic, i guess we talk about inflation coming down i get it we have seen the price of used cars come down a little bit. you know, there have been some movements in the data. i get that politicians will crow about that what i worry about is the inflationary effect of higher rates. higher rates will bring down headline inflation, but they also increasedborrowing costs, particularly for those who borrow money i heard someone describe higher interest rates as a wealth transfer tax from the poor to the rich those who borrow money from those who lend the money, banks, if you will. how much will higher rates have an impact on lower-income people in the united states who don't have the credit or the pricing power to combat some of the forces >> well, you have to recognize

there are two kinds of challenges that the fed faces. one is the inflation challenge so, inflation is widely regarded as not an invisible tax on every individual particularly poorer individuals that you talked about. if you take yourselfback to th period of really higher inflation here recently, the main concern is gasoline prices and cost of commuting and rent has gone up and food prices have gone up. so we shouldn't downplay the hidden tax of inflation on low and moderate income people you are absolutely right higher interest rates also fall on individuals who have to borrow high interest rates and steeper yield curve may make banks more profitable recognize by getting inflation under control, the fed is trying to keep the economy going at the

maximum sustainable growth, ie, avoiding stop/start and avoiding a rescission there are benefits to society. that's the tradeoff they are making here. >> it is a trade i do want to make sure we acknowledge it if you are paying 12% on a credit card and now 20%. those are going to be inflationary aspects we save that for another day roger ferguson, i appreciate you getting up early for us. thanks have a great day coming up, will u.p.s. deliver their numbers out at the top of the hour? and first, trending stories

on cnbc.com. occupancy rates in big cities are back to 50% on average according to castle systems. among the cities holding steady or rising? new york, san francisco, boston and san jose just in time for the super bowl, legalized sports betting hitting massachusetts today. all expected to benefit from the increase in wagering online and mobile betting is not available until march. you still have to go to the c ca casino. airbnb is out with the most wished properties spanning six cou countries. ranging from canada to the private guest home in utah and the $18 million hidden haven in

south africa dow futures are down 112 we are back after this today, we're producing renewable diesel that can be used in existing diesel tanks. and we're committed to increasing our renewable fuels production. because as we work toward a lower carbon future, it's only human to keep moving forward.

(swords clashing) because-had enough?toward a -no... arthritis.re, here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. welcome back let's talk u.p.s out with earnings tomorrow and one company which many see as a bellwether for the economy it is good for earnings. not quite as good on the stock side shares down 11% for the year that is tough. it looks good compared to fedex

which lost quarter of the value. let's talk about this with ken hoexter at bank of america securities ken, what is key for you in u.p.s. numbers which are out in 15 minutes >> good morning, brian thank you for having me. you are right. key is they posted seven consecutive quarters of improvement. that is what people will continue to see. brian, the cfo said no matter the volumes with the weak peak season with the consumer you had prime day early in october. given the weakness, the ability to cut costs and post imp improvement is what people will look at the quarter. >> i noted how they had been beating guidance for ten quarters the stock hasn't respond how come >> it is the fear of what is coming on with the consumer. when you look at 2023, the key items are the union negotiations

coming up with the teamsters and they are getting antagonistic. both sides of the table from the teamsters and the ceo. they both said they will not start early. this seems to be more dragging to the end that is in july. investors looking for the fear of what may come around that secondly, the amazon issue the overhang which is about 12% of the revenue is now expected to be less than 11% of total revenue in 2022. that is continuing to fall as amazon pulls more volume out to the network. you see the amazon overhang and teamsters negotiations as far as the investors looking at stock in 2023. that is big for the investors despite the domestic improvements and lowing consumer >> from the investment perspective, looking at the ratings and please say yes or no

if i'm wrong, you are bullish on the trains than the trucks >> actually, we just recently upgraded the truckload names because we feel like we found a nice base on the performance an. we do a survey that the shipper sentiment found the floor. we have been at this for 42 weeks in terms of our survey once you build the level of the support base, the truckload stocks tend to react early in the cycle. on the truckload or rails which is early cycle, we have upgraded and have been bullish on lately. air freight is neutral you talked about u.p.s. and fedex coming up. that view will be slower going into as you heard from roger before where things need to happen to get this moving. we are looking at the base

building to be a good sign where we are economically. that drives the stocks into the year ahead >> names like knx and nightswift of the i was referring to the u.p.s. side of things. the trucking companies and the trains as well ken, you have a big day. numbers are rolling out. we appreciate the time thank you. >> thank you all right. folks, as we head to break, samsung sinking in overnight trading. the report of worst drop in years. samsung will continue the capital spending program in the coming year which totals $39 billion. samsung shares are lower compared to rivals we are back after this i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes.

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week according to reuters bbby lined up liquidators to close additional stores. and former president trump is suing journalist bob woodward and parent company of paramount global for $50 million he never agreed to allow audio tapes to be sold and mark lyons is under fire for the confidentiality agreement. and u.s. stops granting export of licenses to china's huawei and 54 years later, boeing

set to deliver the final 747 jet today. the final will be to a carrier called atlas air the last 747 ever delivered. what a plane it was designed and first flown, not to the public, but in 1969 incredible let's get you ready for the trading day ahead on the economic front s&p shiller home price index i'll watch that closely. chicago pmi and confidence numbers this morning big day of earnings. caterpillar and exxon and u.p.s. reporting. and the rate decision slated for 2:00 p.m. tomorrow let's tie this all together and bring in our next guest. rick pitcairn.

global strategist at pitcairn. what do you make of the strong start? i was pointing out stats earlier in the show how it has been a garbage rally to start the year. low quality stocks unprofitable ones. they are leading the market. what is the take on the bizarre january we have had? >> well, it has been a strong rally. it is exactly the stock that were getting punished last year. we don't think it has a lot of legs here. we think it got extreme in the fall and we had this bounce back we think it will hit the headwinds of fed policy and tighter money and not continue through in early 2023 like it has for the first month. >> you know, i was just at -- you are a family office. high net worth individuals i was in florida speaking at a

conference for high net worth individuals. i asked if you are bullish or bearish? half for each. really smart people couldn't agree on which way the market imarkets will go it year. what are you telling people for the next 12 to 24 months >> it is a slplit tape. we have a lot of data points to get through with the fed right now, it really still pays a lot to be cautious you are getting paid 4.7% to wait and let the data come out that is the smart play rather than chase more aggressive sectors of the market that will get whacked if the fed stays true to their word and stays hawkish. >> equity valuations almost 18 times forward earnings in this

inflationary rate environment at the high end rick, i try to give the optimistic side. liquidity may be bottoming and turning around a bit people under estimate the american consumer and our strength, if you had to make the bull case, optimistic at 5:50 in the morning. what would it be >> here is the bull case markets rarely had two back-to-back bad years >> that's it >> you combine that with the fact that as we said earlier, sentiment is at 2008 levels. consumer sentiment and business sentiment. a lot of negativity priced in the markets. we are not in the camp of the major step down and financials ahead of us. we think it is a tough market and the go, go, growth a couple

of years ago will not work the next couple years. >> you led off my talk i gave a quiz. how many times has the s&p fallen two years in a row? four times history may be on our side rick, i appreciate it. thank you. by the way, when it does fall a second year in a row, it tends to fall more than the first year still, only four times there is your rbi. i hope to see you tomorrow "squawk box" is next

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good morning earnings alert we will hear from u.p.s. and caterpillar and gm and pfizer

and mcdonald's in the next hour. and the fed with the two-day meeting. we gred get ready for the next interest rate decision. and johnson & johnson talc unit filing for bankruptcy it is january 31st, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is off today good morning, andrew >> good morning. good morning >> let's look at what with is happening with the u.s. equities you will see there are red arrows dow futures indicated down b