challenge. plus any excuse or none at all could be perfectly sufficient to create a little bit of a pullback in a market that just jumped 6%. >> i think i remember 17 of 19 members last time were at 5% or above. >> we don't get the outlook this time that's why he could hide behind december's. >> all right "fast money" is now. gun lock joins us tomorrow right now on "fast," we're live again from miami. the countdown is on to tomorrow's big fed decision. morgan stanley's mike wilson will join us with his take on where the markets are headed ahead of chair powell's next move plus we'll hear on how the credit and debt markets are prepping for a new market reality. and later, we'll go inside the numbers for snap and amd results out after the bell from silicon valley and beyond, a special edition of "fast money" starts right now.

>> they're suppression. >> live at the montagne bleu i'm melissa lee. riding shotgun dan nathan and guy adami. great to have you guys here. back in new york, karen finerman and tim seymour joining the action sadly, they are a little colder and less sunny than we are but we want to get straight to a big post earnings plunge in shares of snap the company said it slashed digital ad budgets last year the call kicks off later in the hour cnbc's julia has all the numbers. >> it's a first quarter warning that is sending snap shares down about 13% in after-hours trading. the big headline says snap's quarter to date receive is down 7% the company said that because of uncertainty, it could not give formal guidance, but informally, it guided to a revenue decline of between 2% and 10% in q1. that compares to expectations of revenue growth of about 1.5% now snap's earnings of 14 cents

per share did beat estimates of 3 cents and revenue was right in line with expectations as for daily active users of 375 million, that number grew by 12 million in the quarter but the key thing dragging on fourth quarter results, it really seemed to be brand advertising, which the company said declined by 11% while snap's direct response ad business increased by 4% year-over-year the company also announced that snap is now investing to improve its direct response ad platform. it says that will help drive results higher over time, but may cause a near term disruption melissa? >> all right, thanks, julia. we'll check back with you later on snap's resulting taking down other social media stocks in the after session. we saw shares of meta down by 2% they recovered a bit we're on the precipice of a flood of tech earnings here. a lot of them are partially dependent on advertising

dan, how should we regard the snap earnings? >> this is a relative win relative to twitter. flat year-over-year rev knew we heard twitter's revenue in q4 might have been down 5%. growing use terse way it did, 375 million, listen, i think the stock ran up 30% into the print. so most likely going to come back $9 in the next few months >> we got down to the levels we saw three trading days ago and tim can speak to this, arpu,avenue revenue per user it's not a complete unmitigated disaster we can trade snap all we want. but people that are long facebook, a stock that has now run probably 75% from those lows, are they going to sell first, ask questions later that's what i would do, by the way. that's the prudent thing to do they is a setup for so many of these tech earnings. that is the stock has run up and so even if it's not a

disaster, that doesn't mean that there won't be a disastrous reaction to it karen, as a meta holder, what do you do how do you meta earnings at this point? >> yeah, that's a great question i hate when things run up so far into earnings. the meta move is just extraordinary, only because the meta move down was something well beyond extraordinary. so, you know, i got to look to maybe sell some upside calls, but i still think even with the move higher that i want to own meta here. and so for just getting back to snap for a minute, you know, the guidance or lack thereof is what spooked everyone that 7% revenue decline, that's not a great thing. when you have gross margins like they do or all these businesses do, a 7% revenue decline does very bad things to the bottom line because those gms are so big. but i don't blame them for not having guidance. i don't think any company should have guidance when things are so difficult to see

but i don't think for alphabet on thursday it's somewhat of a different animal and i think that they're -- also, i think travel has been really strong. it's one of tim's picks is travel i think that google hopefully is a little different animal. >> yeah. so tim, is it much more snap specific at this point in terms of the story that they're telegraphing >> well, i think it is and a number of these media companies were the first ones to sell off hard on just recession fears, et cetera snap has led them all down every single time. so this is now the eighth straight quarter of revenue decline. and has been noted here, the d.a. views are a lot less important than the engagement. built off engagement, consu consumption. if you think where snap really has had issues specific to the ios changes. they sit at the top of the funnel they really need to be done direct brand respond and it's not been the period for

them to actually show that that business model works i think it is largely structural and i do think the fact that they're not giving guidance isn't the issue here the revenue contraction is a big deal and i think, again, the consumption and the engagement is the most important part for snap >> all right again, a 13.5% decline so far on the back of earnings let's now turn to the countdown tomorrow's fed decision. stocks rising ahead of that announcement as investors predict the central bank will only raise by a quarter point. the nasdaq closing out its best january since 2001 the s&p and dow finishing solidly in the green those indices seeing their best start to a year since 2019% but can this momentum continue i mean you know what the fed is expected to do it will probably deliver on that the question is the message afterwards what is that messaging going to be hawkished on dovish? >> i happen to think it's going to be extraordinarily hawkish. the run in the market has given them that flexibility. this run we've seen now over the last few weeks, to me, they're

going to talk as hawkish as they've been if not moreso i don't think they want asset prices to go higher. people on twitter say it's not their mandate. i totally get it part of the problem all along is elevated asset prices. i think it's going to be incredibly hawkish the market doesn't seem to care right now. on the back of earnings which have been okay, i'm not sure what the market is looking to be as bullish as it seems to be. >> if they have any sign of hawkishness, this is in the presser, and risk assets take off, i think they really do run a risk of things crashing at some point later this year and i hate to use that term. but the s&p was up 28% in 2021, okay it was down 20% last year. mike wilson is going to come on and tell us where he thinks s&p earnings are going to be there is no scenario that supports higher valuations on the s&p 500 right now unless the economy magically changes course the stock market has done that,

but i think it's repriced incorrectly here and i think some of the worst stuff is rallying. that being said, i think investors are really, really sick of being bearish over the last year and a half or so that's really what i think happened here in january. >> we certainly hear that all the time on our twitter feed. >> yes, we do. >> why are you guys so bearish look at the markets now. we are rallying. karen, we did speak to jim chanos yesterday he said you know, if you look at all the prior bear markets, they trade between 9 times and 14 times peak so if we do 14 times peak and peak is 200, that's a long ways lower from here. >> it is a long ways lower from here i guess that the idea that the fed will start to stop and then maybe even turn around, maybe that's the sort of ballast for the super bullishness, i think that i always talk about the market is not a monolith there are pockets of value in

there. but it seems to be some of the dash for trash is, i don't know, sort of speculative and ridiculous that kind of stuff i'm not going the play along with. but it does make me want to be more protective. >> you've got to wonder, tim, if jay powell is a looking at his bloomberg terminal and they're looking at amc and tesla and they're seeing the run in these riskier -- quote, unquote riskier assets and equities and thinking this is nuts. we've got to put an end to this. >> but one of the reasons that equities and assets are running and certainly speculative assets are running is you have inflation that has been halted dead in its tracks i'm not going high-five the fed. i think they took us here. but if you saw that employment cost index, that eci number this morning, the last three months almost had you at a 2% annualized inflation rate. why are equities rallying? the dollar peaked. fed policy has peaked. inflation has peaked we've essentially had a market that's been rallying for four months you've had the s&p 17% off of

that cpi peak. and you've had sammys up almost 40%. those are the competing forces when sentiment is as poor as it has been, it's left not only a dash for trash, but there are real companies that are outperforming, and there are sectors that will continue to outperform here. i agree. the fed is looking at liquidity conditions now, looking at market conditions and has to understand that things have loosened up quite a bit. and they're not going to change anything they're doing i agree with all the commentary on that. >> all right our next guest warrants the market is looking frothy once again. mark wilson is morgan stanley's chief equity strategy and cio. he is here with us in miami. great to see you in person in the sunshine. >> it's nice >> the fed has no reason to even give an olive branch to the bulls at this point, does it there is no gain from that. >> i don't think so. i mean, they've done a lot of hard work. they've done the hard work they've raced to 4.5%. why quit now, particularly with

the froth coming back. financial conditions are actually where they were a year ago almost when they started raising rates. so there is no incentive for them to do it. but i have no idea what they're going to do. the way i look at it is this is an event that's been thought about now for four months. this is part of our call in october that the fed may pause after this meeting so we've had the rally at this point, right to me it's simply the market needs to get past this event and then we can price to fundamentals again, which are deteriorating. >> financial conditions are as loose as they can be yet the market doesn't seem to acknowledge it one would think given what the fed has done for the last 14 months, financial conditions be as tight as they've been in a decade they're not. speak to that. and what is the market not seeing >> i think the market did adjust that last year we saw a major adjustment in multiples in the bond market, of course, because the fed did tighten or finish conditions but now the market is looking past as if all the fundamental news can be overlooked a and the fundamental news is deteriorating significantly. we're seeing that earnings tonight. you guys were just discussing

that we think that's going to continue to be the case. once this event gets past us, and people realize the fed is not cutting the rate, there is no more heroin, so to speak, then we're going price the fundamentals which are clearly deteriorating in our view. >> we've seen this cycle before the last year where investors -- estimates come down end of the quarter. they're not as bad as expected we see stocks rally out of it. but again, we've seen them pull back and make new lows when you think of the rotations we've seen over the past few months, money into financials, into industrials, into energy and light, there is a risk there. and stocks that look reasonably priced but if we do bottom somewhere like 14 times earnings, they may look really expensive, some of these industrials. >> i know where you're going with this. the cyclicals are probably more risky than the growth stocks the growth stocks, a lot of them had their comeuppance with the conditions tightening. now there is this narrative that china is reopening, inflation has peaked we can look through the valley here and start buying early

cyclical stocks. i think that's a real mistake, given the degradation in earnings we think is coming. >> how sure are you that inflation has in fact peaked we just got spain's inflation numbers on monday. i never thought i'd be talking about spain's inflation numbers. but inflation went back up and that's going to make the job of the ecb which meets later this week too a little bit harder. >> and there are so many other crosscurrents. with china reopening, isn't that directly in the face of fighting commodity inflation, for example? gasoline prices are up 30% over the last month we're seeing other commodity prices spike up. so it's making the feds' job harder, which speaks to your point. why get off the train now? if things were crashing and there was all kind of distress out there, i get it. but that's not what's happening. there is no incentive. >> a question for mike >> yeah, mike. you talked about the negative operational leverage i think that's a big part of the earnings story here we are at amd reporting

today after the bell and what we're hearing from at least a lot of semiconductors, you just talked about cyclicals, you can make an argument that these folks are giving you the clearance to say through the march quarter, through the june quarter, we're kind of at our bottom inventory what's your call on that because, again, a lot of these leading indicator cycle stocks have already undergone a lot of pain >> yeah, i think that's fair but we think first of all semiconductors never really went through the recession because of the major of the pandemic there was a pull forward they actually had kind of two cycles in one. we actually think the damage in that space in particular is going to be ongoing and the margin pressure will persist this is a theme we think is going to happen all over the economy. it's not just tech i want to make this clear. it's other areas too we're seeing negative leverage and financials, in some of the industrials. we're seeing it in the consumer for sure where the overearning was the greatest and this is just something we think is happening, which is

nobody saw the inflation coming. now they're operating on the negative cycle we have to go with the work. the fundamentals will decide how low we go. >> your title is chief u.s. equity strategist, mike. but earlier today on the panel that we're both on, you said look elsewhere in terms of equities and look at bonds >> yes >> that's the message that -- right, right but that really goes to the heart of all of this, right? that this is an extraordinary time for you. >> that's right. look, i do the asset allocation for our channels too i do look across capital stru structure. the title of our report this year was the year of yield that means there is not risk in longer duration bonds or markets or credit isn't going to have a tough time if we go into recession. the sequencing is always the same the fed tight 10s. the rates go up. you go to cash first, duration, credit, and eventually you get to equities. we're such an equity culture everybody wants to put the

equity cart at the front of the horse. that's just not the way it works, and it's a mistake. >> for you, what is the signal to be putting money into equities is it when the fed eases again >> well we did put money into asia >> for u.s. equities, i think it's going to be a combination where we think the earnings reflect closer to reality, and valuations reflect that too. it's a two-edged sword the fed will be part of that story. but i can the fed will probably be cutting rates long after the market has bonded. that's my general view because the fed is going to have to hold firm i think they're going have to do their job. jay powell is here to make sure he gets inflation down as he said at the beginning, there is no incentive for him to get off the train too early that would be a mistake. >> thank you for stopping by mike wilson joining us here from miami. karen finerman, this notion of a fed put, maybe it's still there. maybe it still exists. but it's a whole lot lower than i think maybe a lot of investors are pricing right now. >> yeah, certainly not an at-the-market put. but i agree with mike. and definitely guy and the

others why should the fed dwhaswhat sh make the fed slow down we're starting to see housing prices roll over a little bit. particularly with china reopening, which could cause some inflationary pressure, they've come this far. i don't see why they should put on the brakes. i think we'll see -- 25 is i guess the most likely. but i think we'll see the hawks come out in droves kind of after that i don't know if the market cares or not, but i think that's what should happen. i think that's what will happen. >> we're still seeing a yield curve that is back headed towards in my opinion negative% 1% and you can talk about the fed controlling things all you want. maybe they can control the front end. they certainly don't have control over the back end. if mike is right, if you see a flood into bonds, maybe on the back of an equity sell-off, you're going to see ten-year yields continue to go down but i think 2-year-olds are going to stay stubborn and a 1% inversion is not

bullish. >> you had that call, and you've been saying this and i was thinking maybe he's got this one wrong here. but if you see inflation start to pick up and the things that really could hit the u.s. consumer again, that consensus that it was going to be a bad first half, that recession was going to come at some point, maybe in q2, maybe it just got pushed out, and maybe risk assets doing what they're doing right now is really setting up for that second consecutive really bad year that no one thinks can happen because we haven't had it since 2001-'02. that kind of thing >> coming up we have more options hours after your way amd on the move after reporting their results. the details from the quarter next plus, cuban's metaverse musings. weighing in at the global alt conference what he had to say about meta's plans, and how more on snap's big drop could affect the stock. a ecl asmoy"n amspia"ft ne imii is back right after this

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those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. welcome back to "fast money. shares of amd on the move after a bet on the top and bottom line conference call on the way cnbc's kristina partsinevelos is digging through the numbers. >> despite competitive numbers, q4 earnings beat wall street

expectations driven by data center sales up 43% year-over-year. that's the same segment warren would contract that segment was up enough toe offset weakness in gaming. in other words, pc sales which fell a whopping 51% year-over-year moments ago, ceo lisa hsu weighed in on this conference call that i'm listening into and she said that the total addressable market will be down approximately 10% for 2023, and that they will ship below consumption in the first quarter to reduce downstream inventory which is reflected in their guidance q1 guidance came in a little bit light, but they didn't provide any officialfull-year guidance the company did get a new cfo. she may want to wait it out another quarter before providing a number overall still positive when compared to intel's brutal court. amd lisa su will be on cnbc tomorrow at 9:15 a.m. eastern. mel?

>> all right, kristina, thanks almost a sigh of relief after intel, which today erased the gains on the back of that news the data center still growing for amd. >> so shocking >> i wonder where they're getting the market share from. >> you're not allowed to curse on this show what i would have said had a curse word in it it shows how miserable the intel quarter was. this amd quarter puts an exclamation point on what's going on at intel. now at a certain point amd is going to be expensive. and we've talked about it for a while. it's bounced from 56 bucks or so but i think this is good enough. first quarter guide not with standing, i think it's good enough for the stock to continue to grind higher. >> tim >> well, clearing out a lot of the pc inventory through the march quarter is also important. this data center number is actually a little weaker than expected but it was solid overall this was a reasonably strong and beatable guide and if you think about where the company has come from and where they continue to take market share from intel and other

people, that's really the story. she did also point out that there is some inventory on the data client. and i think that's something you have to watch. but everything we're hearing is that you're going see the story for these companies bottom by the first half she even said we expect to have a softer first half. and we actually will gear up in 2-h. i think that's how you're playing sun, here. you want more whoosh and i think it's probably going to come near the end of the second quarter. >> listen, inventory, that term is like a four-letter word in this industry. what we just heard about what he said about early cyclicals like semis. you hear than and look at gdp number that we saw for q4 and look at how much of that was kind of this inventory build here, i just don't think these companies are out of the woods just yet they don't have a lot of visibility that's why they're giving us this kind of weakish sort of opaquish sort of guidance here to me it doesn't have to run like this. it doesn't make a lot of sense in my opinion to chase this. >> karen, your take? >> well, i own it here

i thought the quarter was just fine or a little better than fine and if you think back two quarters how just cataclysmic that was and what's happened to the space since, i think that also they should be giving somewhat conservative guidance so it's not cheap. i mean, these stocks used to trade as very cyclical companies. they no longer do given the secular story. so it's not cheap, but i do like it and i'm hanging on to it here >> all right 1.5% about a percent off its after hours highs. coming up, more earnings movers. we've got our eyes on electronic arts the numbers out of that quarter next and social media sadness meta sinking in the after hours in sympathy with snap. meta out with earnings tomorrow. what can investors expect? we've got that trade straight ahead. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is in miami, and "fast money" is in miami, and we'rbae ck in two. but seriously we need a reliable way

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks rallying ahead of tomorrow's big fed decision. the dow jumping nearly 370 points the s&p climbing nearly 1.5% it is up nearly 6% this month, and the nasdaq leading gains nearly 1.5%, ending january with a nearly 10% jump. communication sectors, real estate and materials close behind but a couple named sitting out of january's surgery northrop grumman and pfizer and archer daniels leading losses for the month. electronic art shares dropping after the company cut its full year sales forecast indicating a more cautious consumer earnings coming in 73% bookings coming in below estimates. shares taking a leg lower in just the past few months, down a

double-digit percent at this point. maybe it's no surprise this is exactly where you would cut if you were a consumer in distress. >> these stocks have done well, probably on the back of a lot of m&a chatter in this space. the stocks have levitated quite well this actually makes sense to me. and quite frankly, even with this move, there is probably some more downside risk, until some of the m&a animal spirits come back. i still think the stock can go lower from here. but i think tim will probably sate and accurately so there is a place to own electronic arts and it's probably over the next week or so. >> tim will, you say there is place to own electronic arts and it's probably over the next week or two >> as meatloaf said, "he took the words right out of my mouth. thing is a story here where there is better times ahead for all these gamers for a couple of reasons. one, fx is a lot better as a tailwind than it was as a headwind i think mobile is picking back up there is no question that the comps were really tough coming out of covid. i think you're buying this week, not chasing it not expensive. the operating cash flow still

really impressive with this company. >> yeah, no doubt about it again, here is a company that is guiding to like single digits, mid single digit earnings in growth and trading at a market multiple people. might go down here a little bit. but under 17 times and they never had sort of pull forward, at least from the stock perspective. it didn't have one of those crazy 2021s. i agree withthat i think in th next week or so, guy >> look at that. maybe ask karen and you get a quorum i don't know how to spell that >> and then all of our viewers will sell it >> funny >> even if you're a contrarian indicator, that's useful all right. coming up, three fast movers gm revs up caterpillar inches lower and ups. plus, into the metaverse we go out with earnings tomorrow will investors like what they hear stick around "fast money" in miami is back right after this get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere.

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general motors shares jumping more than 8% after the company beat expectations in the top and bottom lines, issuing strong guidance for the year. gm also announcing a $650 million investment in lithium americas to develop lithium mine in nevada as it ramped up its ev production that's up nearly 15% today that's looking at the americas karen, you called it an extraordinary quarter. >> yes i mean there was a lot to like if you were a gm holder, really i don't think anything was really upsetting at all. i thought there was a lot of really good things about it. but i think it comes down to, you know, they talked about 400,000 ev cars by the first half of '24. and that 'ev push that has been so important to the story has been delayed a couple of times i don't think there is that much room for further delay so i'd really like to see that but what i really liked was the demand and i liked that the demand is still there, and they're not talking about price

cuts and they're not talking about -- you could look at this two ways. they're not talking about labor cuts, although unions it's much harder to do i like everything about it this is the kind of numbers you would hope that a 6.5 multiple might not be the right multiple. something a bit higher than that would be nice. but it doesn't seem to be forthcoming until they actually i think show that there is an ev presence at gm in the marketplace that we're not >> mary barra, who is going to be on "mad money" tonight, by the way, talked about the ev blazer coming out this summer, launching this summer along with the ev equinox i thought what she said about where the demand is coming from in terms of the chevy blazer, 40% of the reservation holders are new to evs of the 60% that are not new to evs, they're either owners of a bolt or they're tesla owners i thought that was interesting >> well, look, the chevy blazer

used to be the cool suv to have before there was about 19 different varieties out there. and i think it's important that they actually have something with kind of a cool factor and a mainstream factor and something that will work as karen pointed out, they're not cutting prices on their ev if you analyze that 24 number, they could be close to a million cars by the end of '24 on ev production that's extraordinary the most important thing for gm right now is 16 to 20 billion in net auto cash flow and again, they guide it on ebitda to 11.5 in the middle of the range. the street sat under 10. they continue to be really profitable and really cash flow generative at a time this other business is growing substantially. >> the last time blazer was cool is when ben stiller had the guy on his dodgeball team. tim, i understand for tim seymour maybe a blazer is cool. >> come on, man. >> that was my first car, guy. i thought it was pretty cool >> what it speaks to quickly is the fact that tesla, i mean, the

competition out there is tesla and think about this carter braxton worth said tesla is going to trade to 175 trade to the middle of that downtrend and fail and right before our very eyes, once again, cbw nails it. caterpillar sinking. warning of lagging demand in china an rising costs. guy, you're watching this very closely. >> i think it's pretty interesting. i mean, rising costs exactly right. inventory build exactly right. a stock that's run up significantly, and now probably going to get back to levels that we topped out i think in the spring of 2022 or so 242. so it's had a tremendous run i think the market forgets that caterpillar is as cyclical as any company out there. and you're seeing it now quickly dealer inventories up $700 million is something you have to take into consideration when you start thinking about are we pulling everything forward that would suggest maybe we are. >> china weakness was not on my bingo card for this. think about the way this stock

has rallied off of the september, october lows. and you know, again, this goes back the mike's call on s&p earnings if you're just saying you're looking at that thing trading 15, 16 times, you think it looks pretty reasonable. but if those earnings, declines overseas are going to continue to kind of mount over the course, this stock is probably expensive. it probably bottoms out lower on a multiples basis. >> usp shares up more than 4%. earnings exceeding estimates, but cooling demand weighing on revenues expecting 2023 to be a bumpy year for the company karen, what did you make of this >> yeah, i thought it was a little weak. it was a little lower than i would have liked but i thought they did a good job on the expense ratio that is good it allowed them to have an operating margin that is a little bit of a beat the stock is not expensive here. i think slightly below market multiple but i think fantastic management

they've done an excellent job. the one sort of potential fly in the ointment is they do have a major labor negotiation coming up later this spring and, you know, that's always somewhat of a stressful moment but all in all, i thought it was very good. so i'm hanging on to it. and it's not crazy expensive here at all. >> no, it's not. i think you're right the hang on to it. and i think what we're seeing over the last couple of years is ups continues to differentiate itself from its biggest rival federal express. i hate saying it i worked there so i'm partial, clearly. ups has proven to be a better company, and i think it deserves a bigger multiple than it currently is getting. >> i can't believe we put the video up. >> well, we're here in miami, although i did see a lot of my colleagues from ups. it's funny they're all retired down here. coming up, credit and real estate expert joins us to break down the space more on that ahead plus, meta results on deck how options traders are playing this name.

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you know what? we're not the only ones here in miami. jim will be at the university of miami for a special "mad money" back to school tour this thursday that's 6:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc so he'll get to enjoy the sunshine too hopefully with interest rates on the rise and the fed expected to hike by another quarter point tomorrow, many investors are looking to diversify into alternative assets let's bring in the co-founder and ceo and president of aries management great to see you again. >> good to be here in miami. good to see you guys. >> how does your world change with the fed raising rates >> it's a two-edged sword. so if you think about what we do, we have $340 billion of assets under management. well over 200 is credit. and the bulk of those exposures are floating rate. whether it's a real estate loan. as rates have been going up, our investors have been making more money. the challenge comes if the rate hikes persist, then debt service

becomes an issue so there is a balancing act here and a balance needs to get struck but for the time being, it's been for the most part a big positive for the business. >> it's almost like it's goldie locks for you right now. where rates are high enough you can take advantage of but not too high where it hurts. >> it's a very unique setup. normally when we're talking about recession and economic weakness, we've already seen earnings recess. and rates are coming down. so we really haven't seen this environment where we're seeing fundamental strength in the portfolio and rates are going up so if you are an investor in private credit or tradeable credit even, you're enjoying base rate increases for 12 months before you're even having a conversation about inability to pay >> i would imagine the last 13, 14 months is where you've proven yourself but you've talked about it there is that point of diminishing marginal returns in terms of yields. what is that point i'm sure you game it out >> i think it depends. it's a grid. it depends on what happens with earnings and where rates go. each market is leveraged

slightly differently for leveraged loans, private and traded, coverage right now is about two turns. if we're the talking about another 50 from here, i think the market is going tock okay. if for whatever reason we're now off trend and we see higher, then you'll start the see some challenges >> karen's got a question for michael. karen? >> hi, michael thanks for being on. are you starting to see any pickup in p/e activity that was sort of slowed down at the end of the year? and if so, is the capital structure more conservative than it used to be? >> yeah. so we're seeing a slight pickup in activity. obviously there has been a lot of price discovery over the last nine to 12 months. spreads are coming in. the interesting thing about private equity is in these funds, there is a time frame to invest so the longer you go without investing, i think the market will try to recalibrate and be active again what we have seen is while we're going through this price discovery is people have been active within their existing portfolios so if you were in the old valuation environment, you're

probably trying to buy down your multiple right now by tucking in acquisitions and putting money into the existing portfolio while you wait for equity values to reprice >> where are you finding value right now, michael you were talking to me earlier about some pockets in real estate, commercial real estate specifically. >> i think real estate is probably going to take it on the chin the most with regard to the rate increases when you move away from multis and industrial, which fortunately is where we've been concentrated, you've got structural headwinds in office and capital structures that are going to be challenged to digest the new cost of capital. i think that value transfer from real estate equity to real estate debt, call it opportunistic real estate is going a really interesting investment country over the next 12 to 24 months. >> we're so fixated on the notion of a soft landing or hard landing in the areas that you invest, you would think that would matter does that matter in the way you invest >> it matters be, the way most

private markets investors approach investing, we're investing with five to ten-year horizons so we have to be macro aware, but we've got to be perfect on the micro. it'sso interesting because whe you're in the liquid markets, we talk about ecession. but no one talks about how long, how severe, where does it hit. and that is interesting too. we're seeing recession in different sectors of the economy and different sectors of the market so even if we have a recession, i think it's going to feel a little different than prior. >> and then quickly, because we're almost out of time, within alternatives there are alternatives so one of the areas that you're investing is sports franchise, which i thought was very interesting. the returns have been phenomenal over the past decade. >> yeah. it's fascinating we've been investing in and around the sports media landscape for 25 years we stood up a dedicated business at the beginning of covid with the view that distress from covid with people not showing up at stadiums and spending money would actually challenge sports assets that lasted for about six months and i think the long-term secular theme of unscripted

content, live entertainment, hang out with your friends and spend money, that's been riffing. so it's a pretty fun place to invest it's a really interesting noncorrelated sale >> mike, great to have you with. >> good to see you guys. thanks for having me. >> michael arougheti of ares management tim? >> this is a unique time to be investing in actually trading up in credit. if you think what the last five to ten years have been about, it's almost been the federal reserve pushing people out the credit and risk curve. the way to make money is actually keeping i think short to medium duration here. at some point it will be time to push out in tduration i don't think you want to do that here. i think the energy credit sector will continue to be a place where, again, we talk about how they're paying down their debt levels here. but there are opportunities for both retail and obviously the institutions like michael's that are out there. >> it's interesting that he mentioned point of diminishing mark, where rates get to a certain point. this is a great environment

until it's not. >> right. >> and that's going to be true in the equity mark as well quickly, i know you're a huge sports fan. >> oh, yeah. >> if you could buy one sports fan, yankees, rangers, i know you're so passionate about your hockey would you own the new york rangers given the opportunity? >> oh, absolutely. >> see i knew it. incredible so good. >> coming up, what mark cuban had to say about the prospects of the metaverse, and what snap's big drop could meet for meta ahead of results tomorrow stick around "fast money" in miami is back right after this (swords clashing) -had enough? -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.

i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too.

yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. the metaverse is going to be a great future technology. the metaverse is about five years away from being five years a, and it always will be five years away from being five years away >> it is the quote of the day right there. >> i mean, there is also a lot of -- we tried to go into metaverse and it took the browser down it just couldn't handle it technology is getting there, but not for a while. >> that was billionaire entrepreneur mark cuban and fallon fatemi. speaking here earlier at the global alt conference. cuban doesn't seem to be particularly optimistic about the metaverse in the short-term. five years away, five years

away, fife years away. we'll see what parent meta has to say tomorrow. that stock is down after hours on snap's results. it has been, as dan points out, on a tear to kick off the year five years away, five years away, that's not a huge deal unless you're spending billions of dollars per year on the metaverse. >> right it's also when jamie dimon will retire, i think, it's that rolling five years away. we talked about it earlier with the snap earnings. i hope that there isn't a full read through to meta i think it's somewhat of a different animal and then obviously there is the gigantic spin. we saw mark zuckerberg talking about pulling back a little bit. and then we saw some layoffs and i think if he continues in that vaein, i think there is still upside in this stock having run this far, i have to run some upside calls against it >> it's interesting. we did a show, the three of us in vegas in may of 2017. >> oh, my gosh. >> you remember mark cuban was on that show. >> oh, i was thinking of wayne

newton. >> wayne newton was also on that show and guy, wayne sang us out mark actually at the time said ai is the thing he is spending most time on >> wow. >> when you think about that and i just want to make the point here, it's here. we're talking about these language models. we're talking about how we can actually disrupt some of these major ncumbents. i had a conversation of social capital today, and we were talking about these sorts over things and the opportunities they present for some of these big incumbents to actually integrate them in their systems. and so to me right now, i think those are all really interesting things i think meta, if you think about how much money they have spent on whatever they're defining the meta metaverse, there is probably applications for these other ai models that could really supercharge some of their businesses right now. >> there is also the potential kicker for meta at least, tim, of tiktok going away in some form we learned yesterday the ceo of tiktok will have to appear before congress. so maybe things are getting a little bit more serious in the halls of congress when it comes to shutting it down in some fashion. >> well, they are.

and maybe they should be, maybe they shouldn't be. but meta and snap, this was the setup in earnings they're talking about upside scenarios in the analyst community based on tiktok. i think that's crazy i get it, but that's not why you're investing in meta here. snap's got much bigger problems than tiktok. i think with meta, though, it really is -- i can't believe i'm calling it meta, by the way. i swore i never would. it's all about savings it's all about cap ex cuts i think the stock goes to 170 as they continue to cut back on their spend in '23 >> i'm still typing fb >> 100%. >> some things don't go away too edsly. one trader in the options market is bullish mike khouw has the option for us. >> the options market implying a move of much larger than 10% by the end of the week, of course it has moved more than that, three out of the last four reported quarters. calls outpacing puts by about three to two one of the trades i saw, the

march 165-195 call spread. about $3.90 a contract for 1700 of those, making a bet that the stock is going to be up 13% plus by march expiration. that's 45 days away. yes long the stock, but we don't hold a position in the options >> all right thanks, mike for "options action" tune in to the fuel show. that is friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next, final trades.

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let's take another look at tonight's earnings movers. snap down nearly 15% after its report ea after near after hours lows as the company reported more weakness in mobile gaming, down 11.5%. it is time now for the final trade. that show went fast. time to go around the horn tim seymour? >> yeah, gm a 6.5 p/e and so i could own in this environment in fact, i do gm >> karen finerman? >> yeah, that went fast sitting there in florida nice nice work. mine was pfizer. earnings were a bit disappointing, but the stock was already washed out >>dan nathan

>> snap was 9 a month ago. i think it goes back there long there >> i'd be remiss if we didn't point out the amazing crew of people we can't show them. >> i wonder if we can spin the camera around. >> i wish we could spin the camera they did an amazing job. lockheed martin. >> mel. >> thanks. and that'srap a wfor us here in my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all invest tors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but educate and explain what the heck just happened so-call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet m me @jimcramer. if we're in a bull market and i think we are