return to 2% inflation without a really significant downturn or really big increase in unemployment i think that's a possible outcome. i think many, many forecasters would say it's not the most likely outcome, but i would say there's a chance of it >> reporter: michael mcgee from bloomberg tv and radio i would like to pick up on a substantial downturn and ask, with the full weight of your tightening not in place yet, and with the progress against inflation, there's still a lot of talk about very, very slow growth going forward in 2023, and the recession indicators are all suggesting that we are going to see recession this year i'm wondering if you have changed your view or have a nor nuanced view of what you think the danger to economic growth is

going forward and whether you're close to perhaps tipping it into the wrong place, which calls for more rerestaurant on your part. >> i think most forecasts, and my own assessment, would be that positive growth will continue, but at a subdued pace, as it did last year. we hadgdp growth of 1% last year, and also final sales growth, which we think is a better indicator of about 1% most forecasts, and certainly my assessment will be that growth will continue at a fairly subdued level this year. there are other factors, though, that need to be considered you will have seen the global picture is improving a bit that will matter for us, potentially. the labor market remains very, very strong. that's job creation, that's wages. as inflation does come down,

sentiment will improve state and local governments are really flush these days with the, you know, money many are considering tax cuts or even sending checks. they're also spending a lot. there's a lot of spending in the construction pipeline, both private and public that will support economic activity i think there's a good chance that those factors will help support positive growth this year that's my base case is that there will be positive growth this year. >> reporter: rich miller from goldberg -- first, how are you doing? >> fine. thanks. >> reporter: second of all, i think early in this conference you said you needed to see substantial more evidence of inflation coming down. you mentioned three months

governor waters suggested he may want to see six months is it just the inflation down or do you have to see the labor market coming back into better balance to have substantial more evidence >> i don't think there's going to be a light switch flipped or anything like that i think it's an accumulation of evidence of course, we'll be looking, by the time of the march meeting. we'll have two more employment reports, two more cpi reports, and we'll be looking at those carefully, as we all will, and soon after that we'll have another eci wage report, which as you know, is a report that we like because it adjusts for composition, and it's very complete you know, the one we got, i guess it was yesterday, was constructive it shows wages coming down, but still at a high level, well above where they were before the -- before the pandemic

so i don't want to put a number on it, but as the accumulated numbers come in, it will be reflected in the outlook and in our policy over time i will say, though, it is our job to restore price stability and achieve 2% inflation market participants have a different job. it's a fine job, a great job in fact, i did that job for years in one form or another, but, you know, we have to deliver that we are strongly resolved that we will, you know, complete this task, because we think it has benefits that will, you know, support economic activity, and benefit the public for many, many years >> reporter: thank you, fed chair, for taking the questions.

you talked about solid job growth, slight falling in the increase in consumer spending. it seems so far it's been relatively mild from the economy to go from a 9.1% cpi inflation to 6%. is the hard part yet to come >> i don't think we know, homesly. we, of course, expected goods inflation to start coming down by the end of 2021 it didn't. it didn't come down through all of 2022, and now it's come down pretty fast. i would say this goes not a standard business cycle where you can look at the last ten times there was a global pandemic and we shut the economy down, and congress did what it did. it's unique. i had think certainty is just not appropriate here it's just harder to forecast inflation. it may come down faster. it may take longer

our job is to deliver inflation back to target i think we will be cautious about declaring victory, and sending signals that we think the game is won. you know, we have a long way to go it's the early stages of disinflation, and it's most welcome to say that, to say we're in and out in disinflation that's great, but we see it has to spread through the economy and it's going to take time. that's all. >> reporter: how long dodds it remaining at the elevated level. >> my forecast, and my colleagues, as you will see from the s.e.c. p, but generally it's a forecast of slower growth, some softening in labor conditions, and inflation moving down steadily, but not quickly in that case, if the economy performs broadly in line with those expectations, it would not be appropriate to cut rates this year, to loosing policy this

year of course, other people have forecasts with inflation coming down faster. that's a different thing if that happens, we'll be see that and it will be incomped into our thinking about policy >> reporter: chair, may i ask a further question about the language "i don't think going increases. if you look at fed future pricing, the indicate is you'll raise rates one more time and paw. are you concerned between that divergence or is that a plausible outcome >> i'm not particularly concerned about the duration it is largely due to the market's expectation that inflation will move down more quickly. so, again, as i just mention ed

generally the forecast are continued subdued growth, but not a recession. not a recession. we have inflation moving down, you know, into somewhere in the mid 3s, maybe lower than this. we'll update that in march markets are past that. we have a different view, a different forecast, really given our outlook, i don't see us cutting rates this year if our outlook -- if we do see inflation coming down much more quickly, that would play into our policy setting, of course. >> reporter: one of the changes in the statement this month is the committee is no longer

listing public health. what should we make of that? does the federal reserve no longer see the pandemic as weighing on the economy? >> i personally understand well that covid is still out there, but it's no longer playing an important role in our economy. we kept that statement in there for quite a while. there's never a perfect time to take it out, but people are handling it better, and the economy and the society are handling it better now it doesn't need to be in the fed's monthly or, you know, post-meeting statement as an ongoing economic risk, as opposed to a health issue. >> reporter: i wanted to go back

to another think that vice chair brainard said recently she said she doesn't see signs of a wage-price spiral i wonder if you agree with that? >> i do. we don't see that yet, but the point is, once you see it, you have a serious problem that means effectively in people's decisionmaking, inflation has become a salient issue, and we can't allow that to happen. that's why we worry the longer we at this i think it's becoming less salient we have seen some

data people really don't like inflation. as we see it coming down, that could add a boost. you look at the sentiment surveying, they're very, very low. with 3.5 unemployment and high wage increases, why can that be? it has to be inflation >> reporter: that's what you're looking at most closely, consumer expectations? >> that's at the very heart. essentially we believe that expectations of future inflation are a very important part of the process of creating inflation. that's sort of a bedrock belief in one way or another, it has to be we think it's important, and in this case, i would say the risk eight months ago or so, longer-term inflation expectations had moved up.

we moved quite vigorously last year expectations seem to be well anchored, including at the shorter end. i think that's very reassuring the markets and the public have decided that inflation will come back down to 2%. that's immeasurably helpful to the process of getting inflation down, now that people do believe it will come down. that's a very positive thing >> reporter: thank you, chair powell in the minutes of the december meeting, there was a couple sentences that struck people as important, when the committee said participants talked about the unwarranted easing of financial conditions was a risk and it would make your life harder to bring inflation down

i was wondering has that concern eased among members, or is that still something you're concerned about? >> i would put it this way financial conditions didn't change much from the december meeting to now they mostly went sideways or up and down, and came roughly in the same place it's important that the markets do reflect the tightening we're putting in place as we've discussed a couple times here, there's a difference in perspective by some market measures on how fast inflation will come down we're just going to have to see. i'm not going to try to persuade people that we have a different forecast but our forecast is it will take time and patience. but we'll see. >> last question >> reporter: thank you, chair powell brendan peterson with punchbowl news does the fed takes into the

ceiling given the fact that rapid or faster quantitative tightening could bring us closer faster to the drop-dead decline. -- deadline. would it bring us closer >> it's hard to think about all the possible ramifications i think the answer is basically i don't think there's likely to be any important interaction between the two, because i believe congress will end up acting, as it must in the end, in a way that doesn't risk the progress we're making against inflation, and the economy i believe that will happen we, of course will monitoring market conditions carefully, as the process moves on for example, the treasury general account will shrink down and then grow back up. we understand there will be lots

of flowing between there and reserves we understand all of that. we're watching it carefully. thank you very much. a big rally on the remarks the federal reserve raises interest rates, as expected, by a quarter of a percentage point. that's a step down from last time the fed chair talked a lot about the progress he is seeing on inflation. he used the word "disinflation" a number of times. that's potentially why the market is taking this is as a dovish read. he said there's still more work to do, that he needs more substantial progress, but the stock market is keying into the other message that potentially they're closer to the end on hiking interest rates. joining us now with reaction is

gary cohn, also the vice chairman of ibm and form errant of goldman sachs, regular on the fed day. i guess the takeaway, gary is this could have been more hawkish. >> absolutely, sara. the chairman caught out and said the full effects are yesterday to be seen he gave you both sides of the argument, but i think the fact that he gave us the seed of the argument that things have gotten better he sees improvement, he sees inflation coming down. the only thing he kept hanging his hat on is the labor department >> don't we need immigration >> i know we can't do anything about it, but we are labor dependent. he went as far as quoting the

jolts report from this morning 1.9off openings per unemployed american that was the jolts data from this morning. >> let's bring in mike santoli this is quite a stunning intraday look at the nasdaq and to now the highs of the session, a similar chart. treasuries getting bought. what do you make of this market reaction >> sara, i think the key was during the press conference, jay powell refused multiple opportunities to more directly get hawkish, and essentially call the market out for being too optimistic about a soft landing. he was asked about financial conditions a couple times and said they tightened a fair bit in the last year that's actually not that true. they have loosened up again, but he's not willing to say the markets have it wrong here he also just in general was allowing the economy to prove

that a soft landing was possible he was not strident about getting unemployment to a certain eft. he was not suggesting that ongoing future increases is even fully baked. he diplomat really endorse that. he said, we'll figure it out, a new outlook in march all of those taken together, combined with a market expectation that there was at least a chance he would be more aggressive in trying to keep the markets from getting too excited, all of that together country of unhired the market, allowed the message to relax a bit in the short certainly and we could completely under why i had this by tonight. >> true. this is a fed chair who knows how to be hawkish. he's scared the markets before he talked about inflicting pain. he had a number of chances to do that

when he did noe initially said be higher that he injebbed he did acknowledge the short-term data, the month over month, the last three month we're showing very little inflation. the month over month numbers are very low. >> you mentioned the jolts showing more job openings.

i think he also poured some water on that, too, saying wages are coming down. we've seen that. so -- again, another chance to be hawkish, but he did not take. >> he also interjebbed, look, i have two more unemployment reports before my next meeting so, we have a march meeting, then a month off i still believe what i did last night. so you think 25 in march. >> we would be 4.75, 5 >> he said it was very graph fitting he was asked by a number

of reporters, and how much that will drive inflation but, as you and i both know, the fed cannot create workers. the reality of it is, if you look at prime working age adults, the rate is back to pre-pandemic levels. we're missing people in the older population that left the workforce and not coming back. people have early retired. we talked about that we also talked about covid took people out of the work force, unfortunately. so we really just can't create these workers, and they're not coming back. companies are afraid in many respects to get rid of workers also look at what's going on here we've got the president of the united states on a tour right now, talking about the infrastructure bill that was passed, giving out money right now to implement that plan

we're talking about a tun between new york and new jersey. he was in baltimore jed, that plan, that infrastructure plan has a million and a half jobs in it so, yes, the technology industry is shedding some jobs. they were the huge creator of jobs we're also creating new jobs you can see, as the chair said, there's a lot going on underneath the surface as well constitutions. we do have steve liesman who was in the room, did ask about labor. steve, what was your takeaway? >> i think it was marked by the idea he did not want to

entertain any possibility of going to 5% and stay there for a long time. >> i think he created the possibility maybe not quite be high for so long if the data comes in he acknowledged the differences between the market the way he acknowledged them, as differences in the outlook not a difference between, do you believe i'm going to see this? it's a difference in the outlook on inflation he says if that happens, we'll take it into the forecast. here's what he said. >> we see good inflation coming down for the reasons we thought. we understand why housing inflation will come down, and a story will emerge on the flaunt housing services sector soon enough i think there's ongoing disinflation that we don't yet see weakness in the labor markets. we'll have to see.

>> the possibility that inflation comes down in the non-housing service sector without a big decline that's essentially in the labor market. he says it's possible some sectors, maybe not in others i think the truth will come out when it comes to the data. if you have -- that will bring down the scp if not, it will stay right where it is. >> we're all sort of psychops psychoanalyzing fed chair powell, he wasn't as hawkish as in recent past the question is, what happens to inflation? is it going to come down fast enough for them to take a paw? >> i have one observation, maybe a personal one, i thought powell was comfortable with the position he's taking here. i don't know if gary wants to comment on that. i didn't see a guy ill at ease, if you will, with where he is as

to policy. he said, here's the reality. we're going to hike rates and we're going to continue hiking rates until it's apparent we don't have it. he seemed solid that he it both the committee and his conviction there. >> i think powell is in a comfortable position they raised rates aggressively he said we have stepped down the last three meetings, and he's gotten himself to a comfort zone and gave himself wiggle room i'm not sure what's next, but i'm not going to let it get out of control he did main the point, if i err, i will err on raising points he did getit into the conversation so i great with steve, he felt very at ease today >> steve liesman, thank you very

much. >> a pleasure, sara. >> he also gave a stern warning to congress on the debt ceiling, was asked about it, took the opportunity to say this is very risky business if you don't raise it, don't count on the fed to come rescue the market, but what if it happens? >> i think his warning was totally appropriate. he did not want to be put in a position whether it's legal or illegal to decide what should oshouldn't be paid as an agent to the treasury, that's an untenable position to be in, and i think we all agree that the full faith in credit of of the u.s. is the crucial. >> what happens to the market? >> nothing good. we all know there's nothing good by the united states not being ability to pay their bills and testing this we know everyone will get paid eventually, but that's not the

right answer that's not the right attitude. we're the united states. we owe people money. we clearly cannot cut off social security, medicare or medicaid we should be paying our troops we should by paying all our bills. people depend on the u.s. government to be there we are the quality of the world. we need to be the reserve currency of the world. there's a lot of unintended consequences with this happening. it's really not open for debate, in my opinion. we have to figure out how to extend the debt ceiling. speaking of full faith and credit, our bonds are getting hit in a big way treasury yield down on the interpretation that the federal reserve chair was pretty dovish. the other question is we've been again some data, including today that shows that part of the economy is in recession. we're below 50 readings on the s&p, on the pmi, global

manufacturing data so the question is, what happens to the consumer and how far does that spread? we have seen the consumer start to slow down a bit we know that the stimulus savings that the consumer had, which was extraordinary, is now withering away slowly. we see consumer debt coming up to record highs, we're seeing more and more defaults we know the consumer is having additional problems at this point. they're not in a horrible position, but the disposable income is eroding. we're seeing wages, the pressure in wages there's a bit of wage pressure going on look, to me, this is interesting in some effect, because it's probably going to force more people back to the labor market that didn't think they would reenter the labor market we could be in a funny conundrum that people want to come back to the labor market at the exact same time the labor market is contracting, so the fed may ultimately get their wish, that

the unemployment rate goes up and they may be solving that side of the equation it's full employment and growth, and with inflation at 2%, right now they're lucky we have the full employment side of the equation if we start seeing disposable income continuing to evaporate appeared there's no jobs, we see a spike in unemployment. ben the fed will have to deal with that. >> is that your expectation? >> i think the economy will worsen, to some extent i'm not worried about a horrible outcome here, but i see some softness around the edges here the fed chair started out by saying the full effects of tightening have not been felt. >> yes >> how long does it take for the full effect to play out? >> historically it's 6 to 12 months the first one was 11 month we're almost a year into this. >> it feels longer

march 17th, i think, of last year so we're not even 11 months into this the full effects of the first increase are probably starting to hit, but the effects of the last five or six are not hitting us they're still wokking their way through the system we're seeing a big rally i mentioned the intraday turnaround, the s&p 500 up 1.2%. technologies stocks are in the lead, the only sector lower is energy prices. nasdaq is up 2%. i mentioned treasury yields getting bought the dollar is weaker bitcoin is at the high of the session, everything you would expect to rally. you think we've seen the highs on treasuries. a lot of people think, higher for longer that means rates are going back up. i don't know treasuries. the treasury curve right now, you know, it depends on what part of the treasury curve you

talk about, right? we have such an inversion going on between 9 front end. >> and inverting further. >> i would assume so have we seen the highs i don't know about the highs on the front end. the fed keeps raising rates, i think they're only going another 25 basis points. >> you think it's priced in? >> i think it has been if you ask me, you know, to tell you, i think we've seen the highs in the treasury market, the ten-year is driving its own view of where the economy is, but the key thing you talk about with the dallas, dollar, it's allowing repatriating earnings, so the dollar move is very valuable >> but all of that goes against what the fed is trying to do, which is constrain the economy,

tighten financial conditions he even said we'd like financial conditions to match up, but they're not right now. >> it was an interesting answer to the financial questions it was an early question he talked about we don't look at short term, but long-term moves in financial conditions. >> but the bottom line is the market is fighting the fed he said this isn't time to pause and doesn't seat rate cuts here. the market sees something different. >> i said it last time and i'll say it again, i think the market is right. >> that they'll cut rates? >> i think the market is right i think employment will stay strong i don't think the fed will break the back of the employment market for a variety of reasons. he keeps talking about the service sector being wrong

service sectorside bodies, yes there's input costs, but if you get your hair kit those are service industries, people providing services when he talks about the service industry being high, it's labor. i think those markets are going to stayed where they are remember the way inflation works. as when prices go up, we're inflating. prices stop a that level, we're no longer inflating, but we're seeing prices stable at these levels, the prices will be high, but i don't think we're going to lose a lot of workers in the places where we lose orkers, w will replace there another place. the infrastructure bill is going to bring additional need for labor, from engineering all the way down to manual labor in the construction of u.s. infrastructure >> so that means the labor market will stay strong enough, so why cut rates >> i think they're going to give us on this back that we have to break the labor market to stop

raising rates. as i said earlier, it's labor depe dependent. i don't think it should be i think it should be economic data dependent if they gave up on the labor piece, they would stop raising rates right now. lael brainard is the number two at the fed our reports and others she's likely heading over to the white house now to be president biden's head of the national economic council, a job that you once den. >> a great job. >> isn't she more affective as the vice chair of the fed where there's real policy action being taken? >> it's an interesting move. if she moves to the nec job, he has a much broad are mandate she can get involved in many more aspects the nec job allows you to be involved in technology, in agriculture, in all of the major

inpull areas of the economy. you're the chief economic adviser to the president of the united states. it allows you a huge swath of areas where you can delve in and influence policy and work with capitol hill on driving legislation. as vie chairs of the fed, look, you have a very powerful position, but you're dealing with monetary policy. >> which i happen to find more exciting, but that's just me. >> i thought the nec job was a really good job. >> gary cohn, thank you very much. >> thank you, sara. here's where we stand right now. we're rallies across the board we're at new highs the nasdaq up 2.3% small caps are also surging. every sector is green except for energy we have a lot of individual stocks to talk about coming up, what that could mean for meta, which reports earnings after the bell today

don't my jeffrey gundlach, his reaction to the fed. that's coming up in "closing bell" overtime the dow is lagging, but still up a bit we'll be right back.

i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy.

i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here. when you stay at a vrbo you always get the whole home because is it really a vacation home if you have to share a house with a host? ♪ only with vrbo

up almost 200 now on the dow. fedex is taking a leg higher in midday trading after saying it's laying out of 10% of its workers. altria also announcing a buyback program. while the full-year guidance met the street expectations, it reallied less than 5%. and ea, one of the worst s&p 500 performers, bad news there, including missing earnings, disappointing guidance and a dre of its upcoming "star wars" game up next jeffries analyst

david zervos. plus a preview of meta a and -- ♪♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights.

miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation. business can happen anytime, anywhere. so help yours thrive and stay connected with the comcast business complete connectivity solution. it's the largest, fastest, reliable network. advanced gig speed wifi. and cyberthreat protection. starting at just $49.99 a month. plus, you can save up to 60% a year when you add comcast business mobile. or, ask how to get up to a $750 prepaid card.

complete connectivity. one solution, for wherever business takes you. comcast business. powering possibilities. this tiny payment thing- is a giant pain! hi ladies! alex from u.s. bank! can she help? how about a comprehensive point of sale system... that can track inventory, manage schedules- and customize orders? that's what u.s. bank business essentials is for. (oven explosion) what about a new oven, can u.s. bank help us there? we can serve loans in as fast as 12 minutes.

that would be a big help! huge! jumbo! ginormous! woo! -woo! finding ways to make your business boom. that's what u.s. bank is for. we'll get there together. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. we are now in the "closing bell" market zone.

like santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. plus julia boorstin on snap and meta, and david zervos here on the fed. we're seeing quite a rally, an intraday turn around after comments from jay powell after they raise interest rates. the market is getting excited about what they heard, or maybe what they didn't hear, push back against looser financial condition, push back against maybe not going as high as originally anticipated >> i don't know if it's realistic as the most probable outcome, but chair powell did not call the market to task for that he said they must have a different expectation.

he was not trying hard to jump on the market. i think it was a business of a worry in there, and for good reason, that we would be going through the august routine we have five or six months of retrenching, and the bray day leave was midday august 26th, the day he sent the market lower on the pain speech we have a lot of symmetry going on here. he didn't declare victory, but i think relative to how people were positions, for the moment we're not getting that >> i wonder if the fed-speaking to come is trying to walk it back, and a little more hawkish

because of this enthusiastic celebration. looking at shares of snap, sinking after reporting a slight fourth quarter revenue mist. the social media company also declining to give first quarter guidance, but it noted in its investor her, assume revenue will fall between 2% and 10% from last year wall street was expecting a gain of more than 1%. >> it seems like demand hasn't improved, but hasn't gotten significantly worse, either. like we saw in the quarter, direct response business, and in general it seems the partners are just managing their spend very cautiously so they can react quickly to any change, you know, in the environment meta reports earnings after the bell

julia boorstin joins us. is it snap's problem, too? >> snap does have more exposure to brand advertising than meta does evercore's mark mahaney said it's being 50-50, where about a quarter of meta's advertising was the brand advertising. if we look ahead to pinterest on month, it has an statemented 75% of its ad revenue from brand advertising, so i think it's important to look at the mix here the other thing to watch is mesa has all of these businesses, all this user engagement where it can turn on the advertising spigot, sort of flip the script there. the two key areas where i'm walking is reels, the tiktok competitor, and also messenger,

which using a.i. to interact with consumer, and is a great direct-response tool >> also, the expense sides of the equation has been important. the stock has rallied after meta announced the layoffs and announced more discipline there on costs. >> yes, i think the key thing is meta announces layoffs months before some of the other tech giants announce. i think mark zuckerberg may be pointing that out now on the call i think it will be interesting to talk about their expenses, whether they'll have more expense constraints. mark zuckerberg made it clear, but does this mean now maybe he'll spend slightly less in

that's certainly a key area to watch. >> julia, thanks along with the market, but outperforming the market, still down pretty sharply with a $336 stock at the end of 2021 look at amd, surging after better than expected numbers a 43% -- the first quarter guidance summing in a bit light, amd's lisa sue joined us earlier, and prescribed a rebound. listen

>> that's what we're seeing as we go forward. >> mike, market likes what they heard, likes what they saw here, a big contrast to intel and others what did you take away from amd? >> no doubt that amd management certainly has more credibility, better market share dynamics going into this. if you can start to pencil in the idea we're troughing right now po pcs, you can see the light at the end of the tunnel looks like it's -- you put it all together and say it makes sense, especially on a day when investors and traders, as we were saying before, were grabbing for risks also surging 7% today and some of the other semiconductors following suit i want to hit peloton as well.

it's taking off today, after a quarterly spritz posting better than expected revenue, thanks to growth in the subscription business, a development that management calls a, quote, turning point. it was enough for overshadow a steeper loss expected. >> the margins on the subscription is the high 60s we have a structural shift, there's a lots of economies of scale that come as a result of the growth of the subscription business, which we also saw at netflix and spotify, which we also have the benefit of here. >> you can certainly say things are improving, proses are in place. they have taken a lot of the pain already

it's still a big question what ultimately is the scale of the business, how big it can get it's trading about 10% of its peak share price that we saw back in the pandemic piece, but quickly a shadow of what we thought it would become. >> i think the prescription trends are enough to --, yeah. >> siegle covered it, called the big decline of peloton. look at that, up 30% let's get back to the market the dow has just gone positive down 15 -- dow has just gone negative, i should say s&p is still up 1% the nasdaq is soaring more than that joining us is david zervos to

digest what we heard do you agree with the market's early interpretation, that it could have been a lot worse? >> i really think mike hit if on the head in the early comments when we had the -- you know, jay didn't really pick a fight with this concept the market expected to have a fight with the fed he's kind of saying you guys are crazy, we're going to keep on keepin' on, and invoking paul volcker statements he just seemed really docile he seemed in a good place. maybe it was just he was feeling pretty good about not having the larry summers and mohamed el-erians on his back that he missed it up so much

i think he's feeling good. he didn't want to pick a fight he sounded very switzerland-like to me. >> but also blessed the market conditions which have loose ned. >> i think the market and i did not expect that. he was pitching back, we need to be vigilant. in another way, he said in all the date we're seeing, people are starting to feel comfortable that inflation is coming down, the expectations in the surveying, and expectations are something they watch closely i think he's feeling good about that that showed his confidence today. i think that's why he didn't pick a fight with the market he said maybe they're right, maybe it will come down faster he doesn't believe it, he didn't think he'll able -- but he

blessed if he's pleasantly surprised, he could come to the market's expectations more quick think. i thought it was very early for him to do that he may have misspoke, and maybe we'll get some pushback on that. i was surprised by that. >> he'll speak in a couple weeks, so we'll see if that message changes. david, the question is, should he -- should he be comfortable with the whole disinflation. he used that phrase, that word, it was gratifying to see it, even if in the early stages. is that the right approach for him to take? >> i think it's a dangerous game the declaring victory early story is really where all of the

people who are nervous about him doing something like the mistake of the '70s, that's where they're all pointing, he's going to declare victory, but then surges back up as the fed cuts or goes on a protracted period of stability so i personally think he's going to be much more vigilant i think he's happy to have the inflation come down, but when push comes to show, 3, 6, even 9 months later, i think jay will be pretty slow to give you a real victory lap where he's actually turning rates around or stopping qt. i think it would be harder >> what do you do here if you're an equity investor, do you put money to work? the mantra is don't fight the fed. should i fight the fed now it sounds like even he's coming around >> i think it's pretty good for our -- that you and i have that

you could about. i think it's pretty good for the high-yield credit markets. you have a lot of carry, a lot of loans and bonds yielding 8%, 9% in some cases, in the jungie areas. that's a much -- you have a big coupon that you're collecting, a great start to the year, and i think for me it's really hard to tell the 20% up trade in the dow and s&p. i just think you've got a fed that will be pretty restrictive for a while. now, maybe inflation crashes to zero quick, and he'll go, you know what? i have this thing, and i can i figure it out. i think it's a safer way to play this year. the bond markets have been beat up, the stock market was not beat up as bad, and i think

you'll have a safer, risk/reward trade in that part of the world. >> david, thank you. always great getting your first take off the fed statement david zervos we have a couple minutes to go, mike what are you seeing? >> they're strong, sara. very mixed before the press conference, now it's 2 to 1 advance to declines. new 52-week highs really outrunning the lows. nasdaq pretty strong today as we get well beyond the nasdaq -- the volatility index as committed as you would expect. this is one of the big catalysts where we were sort of bracing for potential volatility now basically at the lows that we saw last year at any point. >> as we head into the close, the celebration mostly continues off the news conference. a big rally in the s&p, and the

nasdaq, not so much the dow, which has pretty much lagged all day. loser like amgen, caterpillars, and unitedhealth 2% for the nasdaq, a rally for gold, a sell-off for the dollar. dovish reaction. that's it for me see you tomorrow, everyone now into "overtime" with scott. >> welcome to "overtime. you just heard the bells we are just getting started here what a show we have for you today. any minute meta reports its earnings that stock has rallied a lot lately we'll see if that move is justified or not, and jeffrey gunned lack joins me in just a bit. his reaction to what chair