>> here in november i said long-term treasuries, about 90 basis points, the fed is going to slow. i like long-term treasuries, tlh. >> guy >> mining. >> he's all on ocinstks thanks for watchin my mansion is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain you but to educate, teach you. so-call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. the worst part of earning season isn't when i cover a zillion

companies at the same time but see all the people selling when they should be buying. the quick draws who never seem to miss a chance to shoot themselves in the foot i'm talking about the initial reaction to fed chief jay powell's comments after the fed raised interest rates by a quarter percent. i was listening to everything. i saw the market was plummeting. i mean, just -- >> sell, sell, sell. >> getting crushed and it was insane. an insanely stupid reaction. everything powell said was positive that's why the averages bounced back with the dow finishing up seven points, the mighty dow not so mighty today. the go, go nasdaq surging 2% it's crazy stocks sold off in the first place. think about what powell said if he got to listen to it i'll tell ya, he said fed rate hikes have been successful and

good getting inflation going disinflation there is more work to do no kidding we're further along than last month, sure. there is disinflation in goods sound down right happy about that there are still things like surfaces not going down enough common sense and in the end what happened today, well, people realized the fed is getting work done as powell said he would but he wants to make sure inflation comes back to 2% before easing up soft landing and he wants disinflation and he's getting it and the clowns came in and sold on good news stupidity, lunacy, i don't know. let's go back to what i've been saying for awhile now. we're in a bull market it started last fall with long-term interest rates peaking with the dollar peaking. many stocks have bottomed. even tech. but like i keep telling you, whenever you see a sudden short

term move, one like we saw today, unless there say real good reason to explain the decline, it is a buying opportunity. because in a bull market the buy is to go higher but you get the short sharp declines say to yourself let's go to work today the fed gave me another chance to get in powell gave us so much confidence in what we've seen with our own eyes. some places aren't just stabilizing but decelerating we have disinflation in some places things are going lower in some places powell used the term disinflation many times. quick draws. whatever they do and selling today and clear to me powell thinks we're finally getting inflation roll backs inflation coming down so fast. we talk about that every night there are surfaces where it's not rolled back so fast. powell needs to see employment

get weaker of course, he never says that point blank. no fed will say come out and say look, we need more firings, more layoffs, more jobs created and people out of work we need people to makel less money. no fed chief is going to give the bears that okay he's in the going to convert you to a bull by saying that that's not his job 40 years ago we had a fed chief up front about bringing the pain and needed secret service protection thanks to the death threats. powell is too smart for that it would be easier to own stocks stocks tightening immediately but that's not his job he needs to strike a ball listens between price stability being ding def vowered for the g haul and make sure your savings is worth something in 2030 how come they jump to sell stocks in response to the encouraging press conference

simple, a huge percentage of traders, they are living in the past everybody is always fighting the last war if it were still 2022 they would be right to sell the market on pretty much anything remember those guys? sell the rips. these guys spent all last year getting burned every time they tried to be bullish. so they don't want to repeat that mistake because they don't believe. others don't want to touch stocks until powell gives us an all clear explicit saying hey, we're good the system is wrong or rigged or powell is wrong. all three camps were on display the moment powell started talking today before he even finished a acc eed a sentence. did they wait until he stopped mentioning deflation no the result of what he would say and a bear market and the market will go lower so get running in front of other people that will sell the funny thing is for most of

last year, that was the right attitude rates peaked and the dollar peaked selling stocks was always the right call but no longer the right call it makes sense once the fed says rate hikes are working and we're pretty far along in the tigetig tightening cycle as they see wage inflation i'm so focused on the bozos because it creates opportunities. you need conviction sellers are wrong and you're right you need to believe in your view, not the view the tape gives you that the bears give you that the people on tv tell you it's no good you don't get the gains very often. they're difficult to come by the ones like today. you can look what is down and buy it betting that the bull will graze to the end of the market might happen all i'm concerned about and keep telling you and tell the investing club members at the morning meeting and home stretch in the afternoon is that there are so many good stocks and good sectors you need to be in. for example for almost a year

the semi conductors have been horrendous and said after a lot of pain, the glut is coming to an end that triggered buying. both in amd and competitor nvidia this is what happens at the end of a long downturn, more on that later. now you can get a bottom in p.c.s and more demand in data centers, business will get better like so many industries that did poorly when covid ended, the semi conductors are turning. earnings are troughing, not peaking as the bears claim and higher not lower stock prices no matter what the talking heads say. they scare me. and i'm confident. speaking of the had hazards, being too negative meta like facebook exploded higher tonight they saw a reacceleration of core facebook at the same time it cut costs and laid off 11,000 employees and lowered expenses for 2023 gone were fears meta was taking in a huge gamble and the zuckerberg was betting a farm.

back with users of facebook that showed good growth for the first time in ages very good quarter. a negative missed it by a mile by the way, left 30 points on the table. bottom line, you need to know what kind of market you're in. a bull market and know those who keep fighting the bulls that did today think they're in a bear market and get trampled. today was a real trampling and the bears, they still don't know what hit them. how about zack in minnesota, zack >> caller: hey, mr. cramer i was doing homework and looking at the charts, i believe i noticed a head and shoulders technical l pattern that began in november. the price has gone up so much at 20 as of last month broke the right shoulder of the pattern, which if i'm not mistaking should significanal a bullish td

and a positive outlook for 2023. am i seeing what you're seeing >> the stock is inexpensive and you're absolutely right. it did break the pattern, the negative pattern i'll tell you what i like. it's got some military and aviation and it is kind of a little bit of a past of businesses but related to the military and i think the people against the defense stocks are dead wrong and you, you my friend, zack five years ago when the eagles won in minnesota, you are sitting pretty on that one hey, speaking of the eagles, let's go to scott in pennsylvania, scott? >> caller: jim, boo-yah! >> boo-yah. >> long time fan. >> do i detect a philadelphia accent trying what's going on? >> caller: interested in cvs why is this stock struggling in the mid 80s? it really should be doing better. >> okay. i have a theory.

it's two sides one is that they made so much money in covid, it's lapping but second, labor. labor is hard to find. by the way, i went to a walgreens, get this, get this, you'll love this i rang the buzzer and someone came and opened it up. wow. anyway you need to know what kind of market you're in, it's a bull market and those that keep fighting the bull gettrample bears don't know what hit them we got to do this again. on "mad money" tonight, we have thermo fisher jumping higher after earnings the strength of that one i'm getting the heart of the story with the ceo and going up? i'm seeing what is making otis do so well and you know use some of your favorites there. just had a great quarter how did wall street digest it?

and i got to tell you something, i was right about the metaverse. it doesn't matter that much. stay with cramer >> announcer: don't misa ss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramrer on twitter. send jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 800-743-cnb b800-743-cnc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com. here, is cvs health. here, we'll never be told our concerns are all in our head. here, we don't think we should pay more than men for the same thing.

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wall street is finally getting over the post covid

hangover it crushed anything that made the fabulous lab equipment to the farpharma and life science. their diagnostic business wracked up billions. it was the best. last year thermo fisher lapped the numbers which is what wall street stopped thinking about. today we got a reminder of a beautiful quarter. much better than expected organic growth and solid earnings beat and management gave you a bullish full year forecast that's why the stock rallied 3%. can it keep climbing we'll check in with the ceo of thermo fisher to get a better read of the quarter. welcome back to "mad money." >> jim, thanks for having me great to be back today. >> great to have you so many people are worried how will thermo fisher do now that

covid is waning? i remember the first days is consistence. stop worrying about prepandemic posts. you delivered the same fabulous numbers you always do. tell us how you're able to do it so consistently. >> really, the team has done an incredible job 2022 was another successful year for the company, really for our customers where we did great work and shareholders in terms of value creation and ultimately setting up the future. it's the team that makes it happen. >> you've got many different divisions that come together a lot of people said you can't own a stock of thermo fisher if there is not a lot of ipos and p biotech companies coming public. why don't people understand biotech and people that do similar can't do it without you? >> you know, we have unique positions to be able to go from

taking a scientific idea for our clients in the pharmaceutical and beeiotech industry through h process of bringing to market. regulatory and scaleup and it allowed us to grow our largest customer set, which is pharmaceutical by organic growth and it's really impressive what we've been able to do for customers. i'm excited for what the future holds in supporting the customers. >> i want people to understand how what you're saying matters let's pick something like mnra technology, which turned out to be the wobnder of the pandemic that really is done on the platform that is thermo fisher. >> yeah, so what you think about the environment we're in today i really call it the golden age of biology it's an incredibly exciting time for science and mnra is a great example how you're very rapidly able to take a technician and bring out a vaccine and drugs

that will benefit patients very quickly and cost effectively and in the pandemic, our technologies were used the acids to make the mnra and purification products to refine the product and ultimately, our pharmaceutical manufacturing plants were able to scale up and produce the final product for the vaccines and when i think about going forward because it's not just about the pandemic, there is so much investment going on in mnra and enabling technology will be key to that and one of the things we talked about publicly is the collaboration with moderna where we'll be their partner for the finish of their pipeline of future mnra medicines and vaccines we're very excited about the importance of the technology and our role in supporting it. >> i want to follow up on this he said one day we'll have a personalized vaccine for cancer.

i never thought it was possible. i think that one day could happen. >> yeah, and when i think about some of the roles that we play in it, our products are used in the companion diagnostics for many medicines we just had one that was approved for getting the right therapy for an eye cancer and the fda has been approving products to be used as a companion by doctors so we play an important role making that a reality. >> i don't know if many people know how important you are to china. and i knowbasically shut down because of covid do you think they will return with the vengeance of wanting thermo equipment >> when i think of china in 2022 we grew in high single digits and saw challenges from the wide spread pandemic across the country as they eliminated the

zero covid policy. when i look to 2023 we're excited about what the growth will be because of the tech -- technologies provide we do some of the academic research and life sciences for our customers and that means china just given the investment they're making in the areas is good for us. it's the second largest market of the u.s. representing 9% of the revenue and expect it to continue to play a role as a rapidly growing market for thermo fisher. >> one last question without revealing client's names is there something you see people wanting equipment from that is dazzling that we won't believe in the next ten years could occur? >> yeah, so what i'm super excited about is around cell therapy and gene therapy clients are bringing to market, they make a huge differencefor patients they're expensive often and the role we're playing is trying to bring the cost down. we're investing hugely in the

research and development in the scale up of manufacturing for the inknovators to make it more accessible to more patients and have an amazing impact on society. we have a lot of work to do but it's worthy of the effort because it will benefit society in such a large way. >> how long it takes and how expensive it is, you're making it possible. i want to think mark casper so much during the period of tremendous covid, he stood next to the president and had the machines that got us through this and now he's making money for shareholders he always has mark chancasper, great to have u on the show. >> thanks for having me. >> good to see you "mad money" will be back after the break. coming up, it's otis he loves us. cramer tracks the ups and downs of a company whose products you probably use without knowing it. next

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you know us. we're looking for every clue in the state of the economy, not from the fed as much as i like but from individual companies, especially industrials well run which brings me to otis worldwide. the leading maker of elevators and big provider of associated services is a great business supporting a solid quarter, this was a modest top and bottom line beat with strong organic growth for the full year forecast maybe better even though the stock had already rallied 32% from the lows last fall, this is one of the industrials i told you was part of the bull market last fall that keep s going, even making new 52-week high. we want an escalator, look at the chart. what makes this impressive is wall street is still pretty

bearish. one of the companies markets can you get on board let's dig deeper with the chair and ceo. we got to learn more about the quarter. welcome back to "mad money." >> thanks, jim great to be here in person. >> you did it again. i know you just read the papers or listened to what frankly the bears who come on tv say, it must be difficult for you to go around the world to see customers but when you do, you're bringing home the bacon these are amazing numbers. >> thanks. our team deserves so much credit great top line we grew 6% in the quarter we gain share and our orders are growing wonderfully. grew 7% for the quarter and we're going in -- 4% for the quarter, 7% for the year we're going into 23 with 11% in the new equipment backlog. this sablt ais about a service y it grew up 4%. we service 2.2 million units all

over the globe in a regulated life safety business and that's helped us drive shareholder value and drove 1.45 billion in cash. >> which by the way you bought -- you bought when i was -- you bought 300 mil. that's the daily thing i saw where you bought it was great i know you travel the world, and i always ask you about asia. i always ask you about america how much time do you spend in europe your numbers are staggering great in europe. >> we don't see a recession in europe last summer, last spring we were concerned. europe is really strong. double digit orders growth. >> where who is buying them >> western europe is buying like you can't believe. multi family small office, commercial you go to every city. >> milan, paris? >> everywhere. >> everywhere. >> even the smaller cities people need a place to live, jim and in western europe, spain, italy, france, germany, they're

building. >> this is even with the war in ukraine? >> even with the war eastern europe is obviously down middle east is booming. >> booming. >> booming so big towers in dubai we see, those are yours? >> we're in the tallest building and we continue to maintain those units since we built it but all throughout the middle east, whether qatar, saudi, everybody is really growing and obviously, that follows oil prices. >> i love you at this one slide and your investor meeting, i want to ask you how much better things are you have a building in korea you have a building in london. you got the space needle that was -- we saw it was closed, that was huge. making it better and then you have just the random unbelievable mideast tower that is you and what i'm trying to figure out is once you put them in, do you make any money when you put them in the service is where i see the great gross margins. >> the gross margins are great

in service 12 consecutive quarters. 70 margin expansion this quarter and service and 50 for the year. that's what is allowing us with the company's margin expansion new equipment makes money. it not it's not a loser for us it's single digits the majority of our new equipment is residential, non-residential, eight the ten, eight the 12 stories it's every building. elevators are everywhere school, hospital, they're ever everywhere. >> i went to the doctor last week and suddenly, i'm looking for the button to see which elevator will go up or down and now it tells me a 3. that's all you that's the digitalization. >> what used to be a mechanical safe unit is now beyond electric, it's digital we call that destination dispatch not only does it get you to the floor faster, it allows energy

efficiency and just moves traffic flow because you don't stop intermediate floors you can accelerate rapidly and move more people in a smaller footprint. you do that and landlords use more space. >> all right it is so interesting when i say that i have otis on and people say oh, be very careful because i work from home they're not putting up any office towers anymore. maybe business is hurt by work from home for you given what you described. >> in the segment at large, over 900,000 new units every year globally and 525,000 on china this year. china is recovering. i can't predict first quarter, second quarter but the government is helping with -- >> right infrastructure growing slower -- they're growing slower than europe. >> infrastructure in china was the only segment up last year.

the rest of the market down 15% and we got a top spot there. i'm really pleased orders were up in china over the fourth quarter. >> with covid. >> i always say the safety never takes vacation but there are people that say okay, if china is in trouble, they can't afford the service. even the most totalitarian regimes around the world recognize you have to keep an elevator serviced, don't they? >> china has mandated service. >> better than a lot of countries. >> mandated service. every two weeks, every elevator is inspected. >> every two weeks a great annuity stream for otis. if even there was a great tailwind judy marks is a moneymaker, plain and simple i don't know if you notice her shirt, it's an eagle shirt she's from philly like me. you probably heard our accents chairman and ceo of otis what a stock since she took it over and it became public with

you. "mad money" is back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, cramer breaks bread with a company that just grilled up an earnings beat brinker international is on the menu, next ♪ prizefighter... ...meets trailblazer. ♪ ♪ classic meets modern. ♪ at morgan stanley, we may seem like a contradiction...and we are. ♪ ♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes,

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every earnings season i tell you not to pull the trigger until you heard the story. even the conference call, bouncing around on new information. look at the parent of chilis higher than expected revenue and 9.1% same store sells and the stock jumped 4%. but then on the call, wall

street got spooked by management comments about losing low end traffic share, chillis forget about how the high end is spending like mad and how labor costs could go higher. the stock plunged a couple bucks. it's profit taking the stock and then justifying that in the end the stock finished down 18 cents. after recovering with jay powell's positive press conference that said today, i'm sure you want to know what is going on here how could it bounce around let's take a closer look with the president and ceo. mr. hoffman, terrific to have you. welcome to "mad money." >> thanks for having me on i did want to just do a quick recognition of our teams in the south and central u.s. they're going through tough ice storms and doing a great job of staying safe and also for the restaurants open taking care of our guests. >> well, i think that's great you point that out because i'm sure it's hard to get to work. i'm sure probably during the storms in california people forget how hard it is to get to work and we kind of take it for

granted that the restaurant is open when we can't make food at home. >> yeah, yeah. you know, it's a tough job weather like this makes it tougher and we want to thank and recognize the restaurant teams. >> i want to know more than anything else is how you're able to make, charge $10.99 for a dinner with unlimited chips and salsa, complete meal, full size entree and bottomless drink at a time when the fed says everything is out of control, labor, food. you are the solution to what the fed wants. >> we are really well positioned should the macros continue to soften, right? because we've got unbeatable value in the restaurant industry whether cause al dining, fast cause al or fast food and the w we're able to do that, we have

all kinds of mixes in our restaurant the value menu starts at $10.99 but two-thirds of the items move at significantly higher prices than $10.99. as long as we merchandise it correctly and focus on advertising an out of restaurant increate mentality, we'll be absolutely fine. >> look, i think there is a lot of people that don't understand. your stock, i watched your stock very closely as you were talking and there was this point you say the low-end consumers not as prevalent but after you said the high end is spending more than was basically -- you used some great terms but you're talking about that they are willing to -- they're considerably, considerably above what other people are spending. what is going on is this a tale of two cities sounds like people are going and you're getting a really good check. >> yeah, you know, i think we have unbeatable value in the market so even if we took significant pricing last quarter, as well as kind of focussed our value menu

on fewer, bigger items, the reality is the guests that still come to the restaurant, they're still spending whether buying more items off the al la cart menu or bigger bundles, there is still a lot of appetite to eat at restaurants we want to make sure we have offers they're excited about if you want anamazing burger and fries and chips and salsa and a drink for $10.99, you can get that you want to go to the value menu at $15.99 for steak and strhrim, that's available, too. >> how are you able to do a 21% comparable sales from magginos i like it. you've probably been there it's good food 21% increase over a year ago >> well, here is what is going on we got the rolls from covid but the good news is there is a long-term sustainable off premise business coming in to

magginos it's historically mostly dine in for the celebration occasion a little bit of catering, right? and then banquet sales when covid hit, off premise went crazy. italian food is perfect to be delivered. it delivers well and easy to carry and doesn't spill. the packaging is super easy and a great value. what we found is a lot of business is stuck. our off premise business this quarter was 82% higher than prepandemic and things are kind of back to normal. so when you see the off premise stickiness, that's a really big sign magginos has growth to come. >> without invanvidia, they hav system you see that people talk about but basically, it doesn't make any mistakes. it takes the order, can speak 28 languages, gets it right and gives it right to the cook that's what he believes can happen have you ever thought about

artificial intelligence in this off premise business >> yeah, we're actually going to be testing for voice calls there are certain guests that still don't want to interact with a phone it tends to be generational, right? so we are looking at a.i. voice ordering and we'll actually start with magginos and hop hopefully bring it to chillis. it is huge you know, the idea that a team member doesn't have to stop what they're doing and answer a phone to take an order, which now feels antiqantiqued. >> jay powell, the fed chief was saying, look, it's still too hard for many people to get workers. is that still the case for you >> we made really great progress the turnover is better now than prepandemic. we're exceptionally proud of that we did good job of simplifying

restaurants and added labor back into the restaurant to improve the labor model and the managers are saying thank you hourlies, the turnover got better but not where prepandemic is simplifying the restaurants and making it easier and more rewarding, the turnovers will continue the ideas we're deploying are coming from restaurant teams themselves i started eight months ago doing a cross country tour saying if you were the ceo, what would you change i took the ideas and we ranked and prioritized them and getting after it and seeing engagement up and turnover down and we're seeing guest experience up so these are all things that are really the future of growth in the business. >> it seems to me management can triumph over concerns that the fed has if they just get their hands and roll up their sleeves and meet the real people thank you. kevin, you got to come back. i want to thank kevin hochman who runs brinker international,

e-a-t. thank you for coming on the show. >> thank you for having us and go chillis and magginos. >> got ya. ma"mad money" is back after the break. coming up, cramer takes your calls and the sky is the limit it a fast fire lightening round, next another busy day? of course, you're a cio in 2023. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business, with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want... your team, ours or a mix of both... with the nation's largest ip converged network, from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities™.

it is time, it is time for the lightening round buy, and play the sound and then the lightening round is ready, y

why don't we start with shane in north carolina, shane? >> caller: boo-yah, jim. how are you doing? >> doing well. welcome back, shane. what's going on? >> caller: i'm calling about a company that has contracting earnings in '23. my ticker is shw holding or buying? >> everything they could possibly say negative about it is out there i want to come out with a more positive thesis because everyone is saying it's negative. let's go to jerry in new york, jerry? >> caller: hi, jim a big boo-yah from new york. i want to revisit a company with you that you had recommended before and that is xpo logistics and if you can recommend xpo subsidiaries, gxo and rxo. >> i'll tell ya, xpo is run so much, i got to wait for a pull

back i feel like i'm afraid that you're going to get caught here. so let's wait for it to come down a little. just had a spike all the ones spiking like that aremoments where you can buy them cheaper let's go to dave in illinois, dave >> caller: dr. cramer, my bennys beverage depot bottle signing friend, how are you? >> bingo doing good, how about you? i love bennys. like wow, responsible. drink responsibly. go ahead >> caller: jim, not too long ago you branded this stock as uninvestable due to the questionable business strategy and capital allocation choices recently, however, the stock has been soaring up more than 50% on the year so jim, is upstate still uninvestable >> upstart, my good friend dr. dave is a short squeeze.

there were numbers today they is a number of bad loans and everyone is figuring this out. when everybody figured out something is bad, they've been seeing a moe menmoe men tar. that's not my style but i recognize that's what is happening. we go to chris in new york, chris? >> caller: hey, jim, shoutout to ridge wood queens, my man. >> oh, yeah. >> caller: a little while back you had this lift for the 2021 ipos that crashed hard went way down. couldn't talk about it headed back up 100% since november to the 260s now i'm talking about loan depot ldi with interest rates higher, maybe we're good >> well, i mean, loan depot is kind of more of less risky than others this is another stock where people feel like look, it's going down so low. it looks up to them. i think that loan depot is --

look, i'm a wells fargo guy. i mean, i will go to miami tomorrow and speak to university kids and maybe they should do it it's a nice speck. luck be a lady tonight or something. i'd rather own wells fargo because it's got staying power and i won't have to worry five years from now stage coach will still be here. let's go to mike in michigan, mike >> caller: boo-yah, jim. hope you're doing well this is mike -- >> i'm having a good time because i'm going to miami who wouldn't how about you? >> caller: that's great. that's great thank you. i want your input on lucid i have a lot of money invested and i'm not sure what to do right now. >> lucid, you know what? look, it could go up but i was with mary barra yesterday, general motors i came home and told my wife lisa, i said i got the charitable trust and we own ford i got to be diversified. can't own ford and gm but mary barra was impressive yesterday that's a cheap stock that's an inexpensive stock and

that stock is going higher and i feel conviction. let's go to chris in new york, chris? >> caller: boo-yah, jim. how are you? >> i am doing well how about you? >> caller: excellent excellent. i'd like your thoughts on charles river -- >> the stock is under valued it's been like step by step, inch by inch, slowly niagra falls. it's coming back i felt that way listening to thermo fisher in the same complex, drug testing. this one is left behind because people are focused on covid. we're moving on. let's go to peter in new york. peter? >> caller: jimmy chill how are you, sir >> chill man is just chilling. what's going on? >> caller: putting you on speaker. hey, thank you for the 25 years, the 24-hour day service you're doing for us. >> well, thank you. >> caller: i was with my mother who is 104 years old and a half today. irish immigrant. she predicts the eagles 21-6

over the chiefs -- >> wow, your mom may have horse sense. >> caller: she has horse sense. >> 104 how could she be wrong >> caller: she loves the fact you help folks make money as you do help me thank you. >> i sure try. how can i help you tonight >> caller: you know, you've been up and down and actually up new york city -- not really up with sofi. >> good quarter. come on the show but i was too late it was a good quarter going higher that's the conclusion of the lightening round. >> announcer: the lightening round is sponsored by td ameritrade coming up, what lesson did lisa sue remind cramer of last night? it's one you'll want to hear, next td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation.

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how about a parable about business the ceo sees demand for chips getting stronger the second half of the year and the stocks soared up more than 12%. i'm seeing a lot of people who don't buy this story they think it's pure hype. they're trying to short the stock at the end of the day. dead wrong amd's clients ordered too many chips last year but over time the inventories get eased up

it's what maphappens with any merchandise. the customers worked through the chips they have so they need to order more they call this an inventory crush but a classic readjustment when you have too many come phone innocents you stop buying it when you run out, you order more seems simple, right? i find that too often people don't understand this stuff. you need to understand that sue is not just blowing smoke here she's a straight shooter we believed in her in the past when she said things were bad and getting worse but could only get better i argue she has more credibility than anybody else in the semi conductors actually a lot of businesses including a large competitor of hers which is donating huge shares to her in spades. how did things go so wrong initially because remember, amd felt big and go so right for the chip makers? but especially amd in america, it's almost always the same companies plot along ordering, selling, one day see a red hot

market coming and customers going crazy for product and work from home covid but they can't build fast enough. i'm not only talking about chips here when people were stuck at home thanks to covid, many companies were caught off guard and the lows, they didn't want to turn shoppers away or lose in the competition so what did they do? they did what a lot of customers did. they double ordered. let me give you a classic example, decking, the companies that sold the stuff, ordered far more decking than they could use under the assumption customers would keep coming. we had ultra low interest rates, why not double order to the makers of decking? once the pandemic cooled, the decking kept coming and coming and coming and the stores got covid a gigantic glut of product. decking dried up and short falls and home depot doesn't need to order more than they already have and the decking company stocks

get blasted to kingdom come. of course, the whole covid ark was a hyped up version of a business cycle once the order stopped suppliers got wise and production may take a hit on inventory and wait for better times the people still want homes so the sells bounce back. you say the same thing about everyone and about every company that made personal computers or servers or gaming or cloud computing. they ordered too much for lisa sue and she met the demands, demand fell and everything got glutted and now she's working off the inventory. with amd, we heard today that data centers have too much inventory. that's the cycle it's a cycle i no way too much about because when i was a kid, i saw it happen repeatedly to my father's business. he was a box and gift wrap middleman. when you under estimate, there would be a moment or great time when customers are literally knocking down the door to get their hands on wrapping paper.

my father would beg the mills for more gift wrap and big trucks could come in filled with gigantic round piles of stuff. it was mad at the truck drivers because they wouldn't help move it off the truck they said it's not their job i didn't understand why pop would get so angry when the truck kept coming. he was mad he didn't order too much gift wrap and had to sell it for cents on the dollar because of the double ordering the. eventually stores would run out of gift wrap for whatever holiday because there is always need for gift wrap the scycle would start again bu sometimes we had to wait a year to move the merchandise and that's where we are with so many products the inventory is used up and really helping the semi conductors i tried to cheer my dad up and exercise it. i didn't understand what a cycle was and understand what inventory was however, i found out the hard way what happens when you order too much.

i didn't mean we had to live off a tank but let say we swapped out the butter for imperil margrine and drink welchs. i'm jim cramer and i'll see you tomorrow investment will face these sharks. if they hear a great idea, they'll invest their own money or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪♪ for the most important member of the family. oh! hi, sharks. my name steven blustein. and i'm sean knecht. both: and we're the founders of pridebites pet products. we are seeking $200,000 for 10% of our company.