effectively over the last ten years. >> i've been curious about buybacks are they open-ended in that they can take place in the $75 billion can be spent -- >> at the discretion of the company. >> it could be over ten years. >> they tell you every quarter how much e bought back in the stock. >> dom, thank you very much. and thank you for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. that post-fed sugar high is rolling on for the s&p sitting at its highest level in five months and the nasdaq up sharply as meta surges on earnings this is the make or break hour welcome to "closing bell." i'm sayra eisen the dow is lower, 231 points some earnings movers in there weighing on the dow and some defensive names like unh, united health care, caterpillar, boeing, travelers all a little

bit weaker you can see where the strength is in technology today the s&p 500 is up almost three-quarters of a percent. communication, consumer and tech the nasdaq up more than 2% today. meta is a big part of the story, but it's really a lot of these technology stocks that have been beaten up on higher rates all of last year. check out the standout winner of the day. that is meta it is on pace for its best session in nearly a decade solid revenue, a $40 billion buyback, and the promise of a, quote, year of efficiency from ceo mark zuckerberg. we'll talk more throughout the show coming up the interest rate environment and the state of housing with the ceo of meritage homes fresh off the back of a strong fourth quarter report and what to expect from a huge after hours session, apple, alphabet, amazon all gearing up to report in just an hour from now all surging today on the back of that meta news

mike santoli, positive reaction and then meta is the cherry on top. >> exactly, sara the markets are saying the central banks will get it done that's what you would say if you look at the second half where yields are, so inflation may be taken care of. at least the stakes are lower for each fed meeting, six and seven weeks apart. small rises, if anything some of the things happening, the technical condition of the market is getting a lot more attention. the 50-day average about to cross above the 200. started talking about how things were starting to line up the textbook october low mid-term election. big january effects. cyclical leadership, some breadth to the rally a lot of those things have taken hold now it's starting to run hot, going vertical here. we're up 6% at this point in the s&p 500. you're starting to see some of the more speculative stuff rip

even harder. we're at levels that we were trading at in here that's in may of last year what happened between may and now? well, earnings estimates are down 10% for the current year. the fed raised by almost four percentage points. that's what we've endured to stay still, and that was all ahead of us in may it's behind us now that's the bright way of looking at things. talking about the big tech rally today. meta obviously a powerful move coming from very depressed levels this is a five-year chart of meta, alphabet, amazon, apple. you see meta here? it's almost exactly flat for five years that's how depressed it got down here at that low it seems like there's not the makings of any kind of similar snap higher for these other companies even though alphabet is less expensive on a valuation basis than it's been in a long time keep that in context and then you see apple it is the outlier here and just how much value premium it has built up i understand, sara, why those stocks are up a lot today

because the meta news, the idea these companies will defend profit margins, they're going to have some leverage to pull to go against the slowdown made betting against the stocks a little bit too treacherous for one day. >> as your chart shows the setup was very different going into earnings for apple and for meta. meta was the cheapest thing, right? >> it was the cheapest faang it was down 75% peak to trough that just shows you how washed out the stock had become the others are not in that category though, of course, good numbers would be embraced. >> especially on top of a fed that was embraced. dovish undertones from chair powell mike, thank you. we'll see you soon mike santoli for more on how the market is viewing the fed, chiefment officer of g-squared, victoria green. paul, is this the right reaction by investors to the fed? >> i think the investors are betting the fed will be

successful it is really that simple we have a disinflationary process under way fed chair powell acknowledged that he didn't declare victory but acknowledged the process and the marketplace is betting that the fed will be successful it's a fundamental issue that the market is betting on the outcome where the fed needs to deliver the outcome. >> what does that mean, victoria, for big tech clearly it's a positive sign yesterday and today. does that carry through? >> animal spirits call it ration experience, call it fomo, whatever it is, everybody is hitting into it. we got oversold on some names. i'm pausing a little bit until we get the three big boys this afternoon, apple, amazon, google we saw microsoft come in weaker. they're not all going to be like facebook generally it wasn't amazing. we were expecting $6 billion we got $4.7 billion in profits

a drop in ad revenue you look at that, yes, $2 billion. mark zuckerberg is committing to this leaner company but they spent more than $4 billion on reality labs you wonder a little bit, okay this is great. almost the adverse when they missed and went down 26%, we're getting the flip side of that. they have a brighter outlook and are up 23% i think the investor needs to see what's under the hood had afternoon. for right now it's risk on you have the nasdaq up 20% that's a bull market it could be the start here >> so are you buying today >> i would rather be late than early. concern on aws >> yeah, the cloud >> absolutely. with microsoft coming in weak, aws, and what profit margins look like with apple and fx and what macbook sales and google, snap came in light, facebook a little bit light what does ad revenue look like

for google call me old-fashioned, but i like to see what's under the hood it's risk on the junkier and crappier, the more you're rallying there's no reason for those stocks to be rallying in the face of these macro head winds >> right so, paul, financial conditions are loosening, right fed chair powell yesterday did not seem that worried about it gave the green light to keep buying the junkie names. should he be worried about it? will that stoke inflation again? >> i don't think he's worried now but i'm sure he's attentive to it in the sense that the exuberance is very giddy right now. and he will have opportunities next week literally with his major interview at the washington economic club on tue tuesday. i don't think he's in the business of fighting markets now like he was last summer, particularly going into jackson

hole he's looking at his mission of staying the course erring on the side of staying tighter for longer the marketplace is saying if you stay tighter for longer you're going to win this inflationary war and we want to back the victory now because we will have easing it's a timing difference as opposed to a fundamental difference in the mark versus the fed on the reaction function >> well, that's right. the bank of england, it's not like anybody used the word pause. nope really suggested it more increases are appropriate we have the resolve to fight inflation. powell said the same thing the market heard something very different, paul. >> the market heard you're going to be successful if you pursue this policy of

erring on the side of restraint, all of that sort of stuff. if you do that, we will get the inflation we are forecasting in the mark place it really is just a matter of two different beasts, the fed and central banks deliver outcomes markets bet on outcomes. >> finally, victoria, earnings you mentioned the three big es after the close. now that we see meta rerated and up 22% or so, who do you like the best which is the best opportunity? >> if you're looking for most beaten down, that's amazon we'll see they took a beating last time because they missed on aws. if aws comes in with 20, 20% growth, that will disappoint because that's such a big driver of their profit growth they've been expanding with prime, with subscriptions. we are paying more for our

amazon prime i think we're concerned how a profit margin goes, how much they spend on marketing, where did aws come in. between ad revenues, i know we're willing to forgive facebook because we're excited about the new reality of this leaner company they still missed, had ad revenue come in lower. google is at risk because they're more exposed apple is just a supply chain risk i also believe investors are willing to forgive a bad quarter for a good outlook and for ceos and leadership to be cutting costs and protecting that profit margin we've seen that time and time again. this earnings season, we're willing to forgive a miss if you give us good news and for a lot of companies it's the dollar coming down, too you should have less fx headwind >> and that continues post fed it's all related in one big happy place right now for the markets. paul and victoria, thank you both very much good to see you. >> thanks, sara. look at the home construction etf trading at a

52-week high today shares of meritage homes we'll talk to the company's ceo for his read on housing right after the break. the dow is down 200 points, but don't let that fool you. the nasdaq is surging 2.3% and the s&p up 0.8 you're watching "closing bell. i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere.

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home builder meritage homes raising the roof today shares are popping after beating earnings estimates and reporting

a 29% increase in home closings for the quarter. the stock also hitting a 52-week high along with the u.s. home construction etf we got good news for the housing sector mortgage rates dropping to the 5% range for the first time since september. they've now come down a full percentage point from the highs. joining us is meritage homes ceo phillippe lord it's great to have you on the show welcome. >> thank you good afternoon thanks for having us >> so clearly the low point was the 46% sales order declines in the quarter, but you said that january is trending a little bit higher can you tell us what you're seeing there in terms of demand? >> yeah, we started out the year and it's been pretty strong. starts right about now and we weren't sure what to expect. we let the street know our sales per store had more than doubled since q4 q4 was very, very soft given the

interest rate climb that occurred we had a lot of cancellations where people backed out of their home purchase waiting to understand what the rates were going to do. but the consumer has re-engaged early in january it's hard to tell whether it will be sustainable but certainly january's numbers were promising. >> what's happening on pricing and costs? we've seen costs of lumber come down significantly how is that impacting the economics? >> well, prices are down across the industry both existing homes and new homes, depending on who you talk to. they're down single digits to double digits. in our business we're focused on affordable housing so we focus on the first-time home buyer our nsps are down from a high of

4.80 to 3.80, so down about 20%. but we're seeing a big response to that as rates have risen. we're focused on that affordable payment and seeing consumers re-engage. costs having come down that much, there are some opportunities there. we've seen lumber fall off dramatically we're saving 5% on lumber costs. margins are down we reported our margins this quarter around 25.5% down from 29% earlier last year. >> some analysts are wondering if there's a price war happening in certain markets you're in texas and florida where everybody is building right now especially larger competitors like a dr horton is that happening? >> yeah, i think you articulate it well. it depends where you are in parts of the country where prices ramped up aggressively

the last two years, the western market, phoenix, colorado, parts of california, certain parts of texas prices were up 20, 25, 30%, we've seen prices come down and builders compete with incentives, all forms of incentives i wouldn't call it a war i would call it more getting competitive, getting back into a payment that makes sense for our customers given where the current rate is. >> what does that mean for the supply and the pipeline and how that will affect you >> supply is really low across the entire industry. i think that's why, in my opinion, housing is on pretty solid footing throughout the country, outside of the demographics we have been underbuilt in a lot of our markets so there's not a lot of supply on the home market most customers that bought in the existing market locked in on

low rates so they're staying put. the supply is coming from th new home sector which is where us and many others are operating. when you think about affordable housing, under $400,000 across the country, it's really undersupplied which, again, is where we're specifically focused on there's not a lot of supply. the customers that are coming out and searching for homes are finding there's not that supply, and i think that's why we're seeing new demand come into the spring selling season, a resurging, if you will >> is it as simple, phillippe, trying to forecast what's happening in housing as figuring out where mortgage rates are going and that's why all these stocks have rallied so much because rates are off their highs? is there anything more permanent in terms of the demand destruction created here by this big downturn >> well, i think interest rates are the number one factor. i think when rates are accessible and available to the larger population, you see

stronger housing demand. that being said, i think the lack of supply in the market and all the household formations that occurred over the last decade and the lack of under building that has occurred as well has created an opportunity where demand and supply is dislocated despite what interest rates are doing. interest rates is the key to the whole thing and have stabilized. they've trended down they've been in the mid to low 6s, kind of settled down the last 90 days and they may be going lower based on what we're seeing today and buyers are definitely re-engaging at those new rates, probably fearing rates will go back up, honestly, they're trying to get in now and get a home given the current rate we offer a lot of move-in ready inventory across the country and that seemed to be a significant thing for consumers wanting to move now, in the next 60 to 90 days, the ability to lock in that rate so they're not exposed

to the rate volatility if it were to go back up >> hence what's happening in the stocks and i guess trends in january so far phillippe, thank you very much for joining me it's great color on the market >> thank you for having me >> phillippe lord, ceo of meritage homes let's show you what's happening overall in the markets. the dow lower, down about 150. it's recovered about 100 points, though, in the last, i don't know, 15 minutes or so the story there is some of the weakness in the defensive names and earnings movers. unh is a big drag. the s&p 500 is up a percent and the nasdaq climbs up 2.7% right now, up 4.4% so far this week. what is wall street buzzing about today? inflation fighting chickens and a bid to fight those soaring egg prices some americans are looking to raise their own hens but are finding out it might not be all it's cracked up to be. we'll explain next check out the huge moves in some of today's highly shorted names. carvana, upstart holdings, we

work, beyond meat. coinbase is having its best day since augmustaugust. you can see where the strength is today these ark innovation names, etf is up 5%, having a good start to the year, 40%. still about 45% off its highs.

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what is wall street clucking about? the chicken and the egg. it was the eggs that came first, surging prices have caught the nation's attention a carton of eggs costing 60% more than a year ago and some frustrated consumers have turned to raising their own chicks to save money but that can get expensive, too. "the wall street journal" laying out under the radar costs of starting your own flock. so chicken feed costs 10 to 20 cents per chicken per day and a

new coop $400 to $3,000. and more if you want one custom made other expenses include fencing to keep the chicks safe, heating at night in certain regions. lumber prices still nearly 60% above where they were. tractor supply is the country's largest seller of chickens, and the ceo hal lawton, was on cnbc last week saying it's been a big part of the company's recent growth >> across the board we're gaining share in categories like pet food and poultry poultry is a category that is in its fourth year of remarkable growth >> one of our producers was way ahead of this trend, luckily, and we've got video there at his family's chickens. that's david in kansas those chickens, i'm told, are about to celebrate their third birthday goldman sachs' jonny fine on

big moves across global bonds.

investors are paying close attention to the wild news in the bond market following yesterday's fed decision and

chair powell's news conference here is what jeffrey gundlach said on "closing bell overtime." >> i still think there's room to run in parts of the credit market we've seen dramatic flow changes in the bond market the bond market was tortured by outflows last year the worst ever year in every way for the bond market and this year starting out with huge inflows in bonds because people realize they're relatively attractive versus stocks >> that's been the story so far. joining us at post 9 is jonny fine from goldman sachs who we turn to for all things credit. did you agree with this big rush into bonds on the back of fed chair powell and the ecb president and bank of england's andrew bailey all saying we're still fighting inflation >> i think i do. they are still fighting

inflation but i think we've seen the clearest signs ever they're winning the battle, and the battle is almost won, and we're very close to being at the end of the hiking cycle. i think people are looking forward what that might mean with growth prospects, inflation coming down, future cuts in interest rates to stimulate more growth i think that's helped to drive a lot of the flow dynamic and the support we've seen in the bond market more generally. >> what do these bond yields, the ten year comes down, what do they tell you about where the market expects growth to be >> expecting lower growth throughout the year. the market expects fed fund rates to be lower at the end of the year than today so that's no more hikes and one cut or more hikes and multiple cuts, so i think that tells you -- >> even though the fed says no cuts this year >> even though the fed says no cuts this year, it's been strict about saying that multiple times

in the last several months, the market continues to not believe it sure, there's risk we might have overtightened. >> the same message came from the ecb and the market took the same undertone, the german yield really plunged today on the back of some comments from europe you think we're past the peak tightening and have one more hike, two more to go >> proicing in one more hike jan is pricing in two. i never like to disagree with jan. we will be unchanged for the remainder of the year. i think the market is pricing in too much release later on in the year i think we'll stay stable. >> what has this meant for corporations you see all the deal flow on the bond side. >> it's been busy. it's primarily been busy because of the shape of the yield curve. we're so inverted between six months and ten years, 140 basis

points, it's creating a real incentive. if you're a corporate treasurer and looking at markets and opportunities today, if you have any financing you are looking to do in the next 6 to 12 months you have a real incentive to do it today typically financing early is like taking out an insurance policy which you have to pay a premium for. today you are actually being paid to go and do that same trade, and that's generating a lot of activity. i expect february to be very busy >> and what kind of yields what kind of deals are you seeing >> it's really across the spectrum a lot of financial issuance this year now we're coming through corporate earnings i think we may see issuance from all of the main sectors that make up corporate america. i think very active over the course of february >> ultimately you're seeing more support for stock prices everything you're saying jibes with a better equity environment. >> i would be of the view the

worst is behind us, the market is pricing a soft to no landing. i think i agree with that. at the same time i think it's probably right and you see this in terms of the financing activity taking place. corporations are taking chims off the table. they're buying insurance when they're being paid to take that insurance and a driver of financing flows and will be a fixture in the credit market in the coming weeks and months. >> what would you tell investors that do this through etfs or where 60/40 didn't work last year but bonds are working in a big way this year? >> we're seeing the return of yields, invest in safe yield at a reasonable return. we don't have negative yield, which we had a trillion in peak q/e. we've seen robust flows each of the last three weeks i think today was a very small

outflow. i would expect in investment grade and in high yield to continue to want to attract capital into our markets >> that's healthy. that's a healthy sign. >> i hope so >> okay. you're always optimistic jonny fine from goldman sachs. here is where we stand, 24 minutes left of trading. just zooming on the nasdaq up 2.8%. a lot of that is meta. amazon and apple all working those numbers after the bell the s&p 500 now pushing higher up 1.25% and the dow erasing declines, down 84 points an hour away from those apple numbers. highly anticipated coming up, an analyst with a buy rating weighs in on the key number he is looking for you can listen to "closing bell" on the guy by following the podcast on your favorite podcast app. down 86 points on the dow. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading.

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check out our "stealth mover. a double elf beauty making investors blush. lashing wall street's profit estimates and hiking its full-year outlook above forecasts and then here is the bonus one for you. align technology is at the top of the s&p 500 right now the or thouuorthodontics company besting meta up almost 26% the price target on meta more than $100 after the revenue beat and $40 billion buyback.

make the bull case for the stock straight ahead that story plus a countdown to earnings from apple, amazon and alphabet when we take you inside the market ze xtonne hey dad, i'm almost out. i got you. any questions, chris? all good, thanks maura! there you go, one new inhaler! nice did you get my refill too? maybe [door bell] here you go, sir. you're a lifesaver. have a nice day. healthier is managing all your family's prescriptions in one app. cvs pharmacy. healthier happens together

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it's -- is it healthy that we're seeing such a strong start to the year for the nasdaq? we came off a 30% down year. now i think best start to the year since the '70s. >> it's healthy that you have gathered up some momentum. it's not only the nasdaq and it's not only the laggard stocks that are working this year that being said today certainly near the highs of the afternoon, it started to look grabby. it seemed like people were trying to chase hard in the very short term but i think you have to remember how we actually rolled our way through the bear market starting two years ago. super speculative, high valuation, no profit, then the valuation pressure on the big growth stocks and then downgrades of earnings estimates and that commodity shock and everything else. sell rallies was the rule all through the fed tightening

cycle. we're still not up to a level where the market is unequivocally proven something that the trend has changed i think you build up a cushion here where you could pull back 5% and still okay, still looking like a decent setup from the lows in october. >> i know you're a stickler for how we name things nasdaq 20.1% off its lows. does that mean it's in a bull market >> not in my view. it's more than just a percentage change off an arbitrary level. you have all these indexes crossing above their averages but they are still pointing lower. in other words, they haven't turned higher yet. i think we can quibble about the definitions. to me it's all about is it a dip buying market or a rally selling market you have much more broad participation. those things we have to wait and see. the sentiment work is now

looking like it's a little bit overoptimistic the markets no longer hate it but from where we've been the last year this is where you would want to lighten up >> got it. mike, thank you. we have to hit meta. a monster rally after beating quarterly revenue estimates and announcing a share buyback program. the stock is on track for its best day since mid-2013. this is an old school meta move. investors are awaiting earnings from two more faang names, amazon and alphabet. mark mahaney joins us to break it all down. he just raised his meta target by more than $100 a share. $275 from $170 and reiterated an outperform you think this is a well-deserved rally and is heading higher why? >> i think the numbers went up a lot. estimates cut 20% and the stock cut 20% to 25%

of course the stock goes higher. part of this, by the way, i think -- i'm not sure it's great management i think they were so volatile in terms of the expense guidance, they did themselves a disservice you have an asset trading at 15 times earnings it's not like we're anywhere close to peek fundamentals i think you'll see a nice improvement. i think we will see a nice improvement as we go through the year we have a lot of improvement in fundamentals coming up it's what i call the slingshot opportunity, this re-acceleration and cut costs, that means earnings growth can skyrocket. you get 20% growth, it will be materially better. it allows the stock to keep rerating i like meta stock. >> it's so funny how the narrative changes so fast on this stock everyone hated this stock and i get they found religion on the efficiency thing tiktok hasn't gone away yet.

that's still a big competitor they're chasing. the macro environment is far from clear when it comes to the advertising market they're not out of the woods, are they >> they're not i think what really changed here was there were a series of overhangs. you mentioned them it's macro, tiktok, regulation, and this concern by investors it was an irresponsibly run company that in a time of clearly slowing demand they weren't managing down expenses that was the takeaway from the last quarter, the september quarter. but they reversed it completely. this quarter, and i asked zuckerberg, why now? i thought he gave a relatively convincing answer. he's acknowledging the business is slower. it clearly is slower but is more mature than in the past and he thinks he stumbled across efficiency gains ai applications can really help and it's starting to show up they're getting better conversions so the ad units are better you set that up and get that macro recovery sara, i don't know if that's

next quarter or the end of the year but in that time frame you will get this re-acceleration of revenue growth i think can you buy the stock in advance of that. again, we're not at peak fundamentals i think we're far from it. there's a lot of upside, it's still a discount to the market >> you want to buy alphabet and amazon into earnings both should benefit from the advertising tail wind but both have potential challenges from microsoft on cloud >> i think the setup is so different, sara. the read-throughs from microsoft are more material, more germane than what you will hear from google or amazon meta did not tell you that the ad market is recovering. maybe they suggested stabilizing but not recovering softening trends at google and amazon the big hint to the cfos, last night meta management mentioned the word efficiency in their earnings call. mention it 29 times if you want your stock to go up.

>> used to go you just had to mention the metaverse. that doesn't do the trick anymore. it didn't work for meta. thank you very much, mark mahaney. good to talk to you on some of the recent actions ahead of the reports. disney fighting back this afternoon against the latest challenge from activist investors nelson peltz, calling to replace michael froman who has been in the position since 2018 disney slamming peltz this afternoon writing in part, quote, over more than six months of engagement with mr. peltz, in both conversations and written materials, he has demonstrated that he does not understand disney's business and he lacks the perspective and experience to contribute to the objective of delivering shareholder value in a rapidly shifting media ecosystem. trian amassing a $1 billion stake in disney. at issue the succession plans of fox, stock underperformance, mike

is this going to go trian and peltz's way? >> it's a long shot in terms of getting on the board, it's a half percent shareholder position, not something you can have direct leverage it's much more about kind of, you know, war of words, bully pulpit i'm not even sure it matters terribly much either to peltz or other share members. to me it's more about you have obviously a bob iger back there. they've had a couple good box office wins. it seems he bought at a very interesting moment when the stock was at a level it reached eight years earlier. i think it's the bigger stuff that's happening there with cost discipline and trying to make sure that they are spending the right amounts on content and trying to keep the subscriber base going and streaming more than any other strategic moves

on the asset side. >> yeah, i do think the knock against froman, he was a u.s. trade representative, has been on this show many times. citing his lack of experience, peltz not in the media business, he's been on 10 or 11 public boards >> right >> the fight intensifies >> it is tough when an activist identifies a current board member and jettisons that person >> a federal judge dismissing a class action lawsuit against coinbase that's certainly helping fuel this rally kate rooney joins us kate, what's the story >> coin base did get some relief on the regulatory front. a manhattan judge dismissed the class action lawsuit that seems to have sparked the rally we're seeing today coin base is very much a momentum name, so really signifies some of the speculation and froth returning to the markets you mentioned at the top of the show the sugar high after the

fed coin base is a poster child of that and a lot of short selling. s3 partners, the short interest for coinbase is 25% or so, more than five times the average for most s&p stocks. that doesn't come close to micro strategy and look at silvergate. some of these names have been set up for a short squeeze bigger dynamics than just the headline news, which has been an overhang for coin base if anything may have sparked this rally and we're seeing the momentum drive >> helps to have the bitcoin and the fed, too thank you, kate rooney apple one of the major tech earnings after the bell. it will be a busy afternoon. let's bring in angelo. the apple setup has been more

resilient than some of the other big-tech players what are you expecting >> you are absolutely right. it's held up amid the downturn in recent weeks. for us, we are looking at three things really. clearly all about the guidance this quarter was atrocious because of supply, units down 15% in the december quarter. it's moreabout the march quarter. we're about 2% to 3% below the street there but, again, it's more about what the street says in terms of some of those pro devices whether or not momentum is holding up there. relative to two relatively difficult comps with the 5g cycles we've had also we're looking at services, of course, about 5% growth here. with the potential for that business to accelerate in the second half of the year as you go through some of the easier comps from the softness on the app and gaming side of things.

finally, i think it would be interesting to see what management has to say on the margin side of things, not necessarily in the current quarter but the next couple of quarters you have higher asps with the pro devices, 4x coming due and lower component costs. you're looking at 30% to 50% declines in certain areas like memory interesting to see what the trajectory will look like. >> is there good consensus do you have a confident number on iphone sales? remember, this was the quarter where we saw the supply disruptions in china because of covid and all these rumors and reports about what's happening with production and demand in that market. where did you settle out >> we're looking about 73, 74 million units. it is all over the place here because of those constraints you're looking at about 15% to 20% kleine in the december

quarter. overall it's been abysmal for the smartphone space we think apple held up better. >> why do you think that pc market has been so tough. are phones just not related? does it not get hit by the same sort of issues on spending and electronics and goods? >> for apple, that will get hit tougher because of the extremely difficult comps from a year ago with the buildup internally designed chips i think as far as smartphone units are concerned for apple specifically i do think the buffer on the asp side migrated, you're talking about a lesser impact on the revenue side o things we're talking about 7%, 8% decline on our end on the unit side of things, listen, it could go any way there. we're sticking around 50% decline.

>> thank you very much for the quick preview. we have just about a little over two minutes to go on the trading day, continuing to march higher, the nasdaq up more than 3% at the close. mike what do you see on the internals? >> maybe not as strong as you think given the level of the index move for the s&p 500, we've had about 70% of upside volume all day on the new york stock exchange. essentially 2 to 1 a risk seeking type market but not all inclusive. take a look at the kce, asset managers, exchanges, trading firms. you see real liftoff here. it had gone vertical, similar to when it outperformed back in 2022 toward the top of the market that also shows you as an amplified bet and capital markets conditions there the volatility index has been interesting. had a bit of an interday pop,

went above 19. a hedging instinct coming out as the market comes to the top end of this range and we have the jobs number. tomorrow you are seeing some forecast that perhaps you might get a bit of an upside surprise to job creation. we don't know how the market would necessarily take that even if jay powell seems okay not getting unemployment higher to do the job on inflation. >> we just need to see wages moderate he cited that even with the jobs market still tight that's a good sign on the disinflationary front. mike, thank you. as we head into the close, take a look at the overall market the dow is under pressure, down 48 points because it's got some of the more defensive names in there. if you look at what's working on the dow, for instance, or what's dragging, unh, boeing and caterpillar. home depot, microsoft, apple and 3m the s&p 500 firm, 1.4%, adding to gains for the week. up 2.6% for the week best performing group,

communications services. i think we have to hit meta into the close surging 23% for its best day off earnings in almost ten years. the nasdaq going out with a gain of 3.1% for the week so far, up almost 5%. unbelievable close for big tech. next test alphabet, amazon and apple all reporting in minutes from now that's it for me on "closing bell." to "overtime" with scott all right, sara, thank you very much. welcome, everybody, to "overtime. i'm scott wapner you heard the bells, we are just getting started from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. right to our talk of the tape. incredibly important moment for these markets. earnings from amazon, alpha get and qualcomm all hitting as we speak. the biggie, apple, at the bottom of hour. new questions swirl as a supply problem turned into a demand