although he did see things like carvana have these massive intra-day reversals to the downside, because they've just, again, become video games. hopefully that burns itself out. and the other more substantial parts of the market. >> we'll see what happens. we'll see how we end the week. that's mike santoli. he'll be back for his last word of the week tomorrow as will i "fast money" is now. right now on "fast," running out of steam markets hit a major milestone. the market now up 15% this year. but after hours amazon is down, alphabet is down, apple is down. so is the rally about to hit the wall plus, meta's monster move. a 23% surge higher on the back of yesterday's earnings. the stock now up an eye-popping 118% from the november bottom. is it time to take the money and run? we'll ask the chart master and later, one of traders ready to say i was wrong the market mea culpa and the path forward coming up i'm melissa lee. we're live

on the desk, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with a big night of earnings apple, amazon, alphabet, starbucks. all on the move, and all these results. deirdra is dialed in and pippa stevens all over starbucks. we start off with steve kovach, who has the latest results from apple. steve? >> hey there, mel. yeah, we already know about that miss on the top and bottom line. i want to talk about these separate product categories at apple. i think it really gives us a read into consumer demand, which i'm expecting tim cook and luka to talk about more on the call which just kicked off. by the category, it was a miss ac akcross the board save for ipad and service. iphone down 8% at $64.78 billion. that's a miss of $68.29 billion. services -- this is a new record it's actually up 6% and slight beat of estimates at $20.77 billion. mac revenue is huge downfall

here, down 29% to $7.74 billion in sales same thing we're seeing across the rest of the pc market there. but ipad revenues a surprising beat here, $9.4 billion versus $7.76 billion in sales that's up 30%. tim cook was crediting that with new models that launched last quarter and sold well over the holidays and then there are other products that includes air pods, wearables like the apple watch, home pod speakers and so forth that was down 8% year on year. 13.84 billion versus $15.23 billion estimated. and look, also cost cuts are at the top of everyone's minds. i asked tim cook about that. and layoffs and so forth here is what we told me regarding cutting costs at apple. quote, we're cutting costs we're cutting hiring we're being very prudent and deliberate on people that we hire and so a number of areas in the company are not hiring at all. and then others are hiring that are associated in engineering. so the takeaway there, mel, is

hiring in engineering, but a lot of cost cutting, and a lot of hiring freezes to keep costs under control. calls just starting. expecting to hear more color from the current quarter, especially in that iphone demand, mel. be back with more soon >> all right, steve, thanks. steve kovach in silicon valley apple is down 4% right now in the after hours session. in reality, it's simply erase with a gain today with still a gain year to date. karen, where do you stand on this quarter >> it was okay there was a lot of hype going into the last few hours, which seems i guess a little overdone. i really want the hear the call. i think it's really important to hear what he has to say about demand was there enough supply. we always talk about denied or delayed. i definitely want to hear that if demand is waning, that's obviously not a good sign. that's the main thing for me i thought that the rest was okay and what expectations not great, and they kind of met them a little bit, somewhat

i don't think in will end up being a super important quarter for them but i do really want the hear the call i think there is a lot of nuance there. last night, that call was god for another additional, i don't know, $17. >> you talk about the run-up listen when you think of this in a one-year basis, the stock right in the mid point of that range this has obviously been a battleground stock we've been talking about. one of the last battles that would be fought in the bear market i would say it wasn't a great quarter when you consider estimates have been coming down. this iphone number really is interesting. i think expectations because of china and everything like that were low but let's see what the guide is there, because to me, it might just be a thing where china might not be this consumer opportunity for some of our u.s. multinationals we've been talking a lot about tesla. as our little hold or hot economic war continues to heat up with china, i just think there is going to be some nationalism as relates to some products that come from the u.s. here to be not a great quarter,

guidance had come down the stock trading at about 22 times next year with mid single digit earnings and sales growth with flat to lower margins, not great. but i guess ear in a market where people don't care about valuation anymore. >> i'll say it they missed. apple misses too they missed on revenue, eps. geography for the different segments america is down. europe down 7% they missed. it's okay. it happens >> right and the stock is only down 4%. >> which is crazy if you think about it >> considering the run, it should be off a lot more so that shows you what >> it's a win now. let's see. we have talked about apple going to 125 it actually went to 125 in the middle of december it rallied to north of 150 you say all you want revenues and all these things. they now would imagine we're looking at some of the segments may be better than they were expecting. but quite frankly, if you look

at -- you said mac $7.74 billion. consensus was 9.4. that's a miss. it's a miss. services revenues i think are less than 20% of all revenue not encouraging growth on that front. so at 23 times next year's numbers, it's an expensive stock in this environment. >> i think to your point, it is a win. to dan's point, january 3rd the stock was 124. so that massive move into earnings, that was a lot of front-loading. down 3%. down 4%. let's hear what the call has to say. this is one of those that i think can fight back from down 4% >> we also oftentimes on the call here, how the quarter, the current quarter is shaping up. it will be interesting to hear the contours of that >> and no layoffs. they're being judicious on hiring but the layoffs. maybe for apple they would have said if we're laying off people. maybe the stock wouldn't be down at all but i think that just stands to

how efficient they run that company. >> we'll have much more in apple. 6.5 minutes in the conference call right now amazon shares are dropping the company closed out its slowest year of revenue growth since going public this call kicks off in just about 25 minutes' time deirdra bosa is standing by with the numbers. >> the company continues to overcorrect from the overcapacity that built up from the pandemic there was softness in its core online sales and profit engine aws, cof says the company has seen continued slowness in aws and q1 and expects to see slower growth rates for the next few quarters. it was 20% in the fourth quarter. so cloud growth could drop into the teens next quarter, following of course that soft guidance from microsoft's azure. digital advertising. this is a bright spot, beating street expectations and incurring 19% in the quarter amazon has a quarter to the snaps, the metas, the alphabets, because this is more intent driven advertising, something

that the company does like to talk about in terms of cost cutting the company has more to do the cfo says they're focusing on driving more cost efficiently in 2023, and certainly the layoffs were part of that. back to you. >> all right, deirdra, thank you. we're going go back to deirdra. >> or google >> two things. steve just mentioned this. getting in front of the costs. they've been really aggressive and karen, you mentioned rationalizing these costs from logistics and the overbuilding in that regard and then they announced a bunch of layoffs that are more probably white collar sort of jobs they're taking all of that seriously. i also think, and i know karen doesn't love guidance, what they're talking about with aws, it's probably useful in a way after the stock has run like this they just printed a number below 20% here and saying that the next few quarters are going to be good. the stock had a nice little run into the print it should come back. they missed on some really key areas and they're giving guidance on that aws that suggests that it's going to

continue to have headwinds and we saw that in microsoft we've seen it. i haven't taken a close look at the google yet, but there is areas of deceleration that is really important for amazon at a time where we're still uncertain about a u.s. consumer here to me, this one should be off. >> i agree it was up almost $8 going into the print today. again, we're right back where we were i think that i agree with you, absolutely on aws. that's not terrific guidance i think if there were a company that had a lot of costs to cut, i think this would qualify right near the top of the list if you think about the absolutely massive build in cap x. and even the end of last year, they started to pull back. i feel like there is tons more they could do. i don't know what do they have, over a million and a half employees. i think if they -- they can pull back, and we'll start to see again the two sides of the business, right. so for a while, we thought all right, retail is worth zero, maybe. maybe it shouldn't be. but i don't know again you have to hear the call.

>> they're built with human beings, with human labor, with supply chain they're built for a pandemic so the pandemic is over. so they have to slowly to dan's point, they have to slowly reduce that head count but if you look at the stock, it's still in a declining trend from november 2021 still negative >> right guy? >> wait, grasso is a soft age guy? >> a human >> human >> soft age. >> we've been doing this for ten years i've never heard >> you learn something new about people all the time. >> operating income in north america. they lost $240 million on $93 billion of revenue i don't know what to tell you. aws is fine. operating margin, 2.5 this quarter last year, 1.83% this quarter. the stock has run. it's not a disaster. i'm not suggesting that. amazon once again has become an expensive stock. all these names that we're going to talk about have had really good runs. the question you have to ask yourself, you're playing the

home game, did the valuations that they're currently trading at make sense? i don't think it made sense last night. >> if you think their former growth engine is slowing. >> which it is >> exactly >> i don't know if that's the question, though i think the question is are people just saying that's it, you know, the tightening, the tightening cycle is over >> because if you believe that, then you have to be long these stocks. >> yes, yes. i think that overrides everything. >> right i do want to hear the conference call i really do. because that's granular, obviously. but i think in this environment, that that's what's driving this. >> we're really digging down deep on the details of all of these earnings coming up but ultimately, they don't matter, because it only matters if the fed stops >> but if they stop, that's one thing. are they cutting in the back so let me ask you. since we're having a collective conversation, what does the world -- what does united states look like if they're cutting rates in the back half of this

year it ain't good no. >> terrible. >> but guy, hang on a second >> earnings. >> but this also could be a fed induced recession too. this is the first -- not the first time, but pretty close to the first time we've -- >> was it a fed induced bull market >> sure. but what i'm saying is that it doesn't have to look as terrible to cut rates if it was a fed-induced to begin with, the recession that they kausd. >> any way, we have a lot of wood chopped tonight even though i said it's immaterial let's get back to the last of the big three. alphabet falling short of estimates. and googlecloud shares are dropping after hours the conference call is under way. let's get back to d-bo for more. >> the team and alphabet also talked about driving better efficiency and optimization. they opened the analysts call by reminding investors that alphabet is a ai first company,

something he has been saying for years. he says they will pursue this work boldly, but with a deep sense of responsibility, and perhaps the nod to the growing pressure to release its own version of chatgpt more broadly, the company posted its first drop since the dip at the start of the pandemic. youtube, this notched a second straight quarter of declining revenue. sales down 8% year-over-year to about $8 billion cfo telling me it is a challenging economic environment. companies are focusing on optimizing ad spend and they will continue to slow the pace of hiring. they hired 3,000 workers in the fourth quarter amazon's workforce i should note actually shrank. this is an issue some investors take issue with that maybe alphabet isn't cutting enough and they're still adding net net. >> deirdra, thank you. keep us posted on both cap x will be flat year on year

which is also a sign of reining in spending. >> the same as cutting for them, right? i mean, i think that -- a company this size, also i feel is probably some path that you can cut as well. and given how much the street likes that, you would think they would want to do that. but maybe they don't really care about what's in fashion right at this moment. i didn't see if there was any additional news on the buyback i didn't see that. that's sort of something to watch. there is a little beat on cloud. but not enough to really make a difference one thing that -- let me add one more thing on the meta call, i think they talked about december being a little bit better in the fourth quarter. so to your point, show the quarter going? we're a month and change through. i'd like to hear what they say on that. >> this is one where they're falling behind on search so they have to keep up with ai. and i think their whole business strategy is at stake this is also in a declining trend since the december of

2021 i would be the least positive on this name out of the three >> guy >> oh, i was just looking down i'll say this. it's been somewhat of a free cash flow story. guess what $16 billion, the street was at $18.5 billion where. is that discrepancy? i'm not sure i actually would go the other way and say at least on a valuation basis, understanding that maybe their underlying business is deteriorating. at least google can wrap your head around. some of the other companies in this environment are too expensive. >> for more on all these big tech earnings, we're joined by gene munster great to have you with us on this big night we're just talking about alphabet you think that was the worst of the three. why? >> it was. and ultimately because i think the numbers for the march quarter need to come down. and i was acutely listening to ruth's commentary about march. she was a little bit opaque. i wasn't able to stay on for the q&a. but that's the key reason here and we got to look at what the numbers are for this year. it's all about what's going on going forward.

when we look at the three tonight, google was the one that had the highest growth rate relative to expectations it was 3% growth rate in the march quarter. most of the other companies, we look at am and amazon are flattish so that piece was a factor in giving google the lowest grade here ultimately, i think the company is still the fabric of the internet i think they're going to do great long-term. but that's why it scored lowest. i just want to contrast that quickly to apple when we think about their results, the miss -- they missed the iphone it was down 8% the street was looking for down 5% so they are seeing the macro but a big part of the miss too was the mac. that was about a 15% miss. the reason why the mac missed by so much is it had old products in the december corridor they just updated those a couple of weeks ago so we're going see a rebound in mac. when you put those dog, back to the core question about what's the growth rates and can they

exceed them in the quarters to come apple is probably best positioned of the three to exceed the march quarter the street's currently looking for flat we'll see what happens after they give their commentary and then it goes up 2% and up 6% so i just think the setup for apple looks god over the next few quarters where google it's more muted >> and going back to a comment made by ruth, you interpreted her comments about march being opaque, meaning you don't get a good read on what she saying about the quarter? >> she was talking about improvements with their advertising business, the search business from ai and integrating that more closely. also talking about their focus on short video, very similar to the reals and tiktok conversation but it lack kind of the punch about what are you telling us in terms of overall growth rates. so that's why it wasn't very helpful. the stock wasn't doing much just after she had given that commentary so i think other investors are

kind of viewing these as more or less neutral comments. but my take again is the street is probably going to have to lower their numbers for google and for the march quarter. and if i can just kind of bring all these three together, ultimately, this was a dodged bullet these are misses across the board. it could have been worse and i think that the optimistic part here is that the growth rates are going to improve across the boards for all three of these companies and so i think after investors kind of settle in with processing these results, i think they'll look forward and be more optimistic about what they're going grow in the back half of the year >> gene, it's karen. thanks for being on. did they say anything about breaking out deep mind or something? i didn't really get that did they discuss that at all >> if they did, i missed it. there has been discussion about yes, breaking that business out, but i missed it, karen

i can say this deep mind is at the center of their ai initiatives and maybe you're talking about this in the lead-up too. it's pretty clear. i think dieterman touched on this too it's clear deep mind will give birth to a chat gbt competitor i suspect we're going to get more calls that's a big deal. ultimately, if they can integrate a chatgpt into the power of the surge and bring realtime information to that experience, that's something that chat gbt doesn't do today it's old that's something that i think is going to be a lever here for investors to get more excited about going until the back half. this is truly a ai company final thought here if i can squeeze one in. 2016, google came out and said we're no longer an information information organizers we used to count the number of times 17 times on a call they've been early on ai and i think their best position

to do something big in ai in 2024 >> gene, thanks. we'll get more from you later on in the show. meantime, we've traded them individually when it comes to this rally, how far we come in this year, we have three huge tech stocks telling us that things are not amazing. is this the beginning of a turnaround in terms of the rally? is this the reason why the rally stalls >> again, to clear you teased the show. somebody is wrong. i'm one of those somebody's. it doesn't matter who. since the beginning in december, i thought that move down to 3700 i thought would acceleratein the s&p. obviously it didn't happen we're 500 points higher than that market's expensive now but what these companies are telling you, if you choose to listen to them, is that things are slowing down united states is slowing down. without question ask yourself what's the right multiple in that environment with interest rates not zero, but approaching wherever they

are in terms of maybe 5% or so and again, the fed everybody is in love they're going to cut if they cut, again, for emphasis, and it ain't because things are going well. things have to go pear shaped for them to cut in the back hatch. the only reason to own stocks because magically is the fed is going to pivot, i happen to think it's the wrong reason. coming up, more earningses on the busiest day of the quarter. more earnings on ford and starbucks. we'll bring you the numbers next wild ride of carvana is the devil hiding in the details? we'll find out when "fast money" returns. we'll be back in two ♪ imagine something of your very own. ♪ ♪ something you can have and hold. ♪ ♪ i'd build a road in gold just to have some dreaming, ♪ ♪ dreaming is free. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got a couple more earnings to get to tonight. let's start off with shares of ford the company more than erased today's gains after falling short of guidance. the topping revenue expectations but missing eps estimates by more than 10 cents a share, the conference call is under way as the stock is down 6.25%. phil lebeau is listening in. what's the latest? >> wow, melissa, there are conference calls we want to listen to. this is one of them. the first 20 minutes, it was jim farley, ceo of ford talking. look, it was a sobering assessment of how they missed in the fourth quarter and how they are -- they're just not a good

company in certain respects right now. in fact, he says our revenue, and we know where they get their revenue, from the f-150, from their pickup trucks, 15 to $20,000 profit per truck, that revenue has maxed our disfunc disfunctionality that is at the heart of the numbers in the fourth quarter. let's run down the numbers they missed by 11 cents. street expecting 62 cents a share. they come in at 61 revenue was better than expected but even adjusted full-year profit came in at $10.4 billion. three months ago, they said they would make between 11.5 and $12.5 billion. what happened that you fell $1.1 billion shy of guidance? well, jim farley summed up very clearly. he said in the release that they announced within the last hour, we left about $2 billion in profits on the table that were within our control and we're going to correct that with improved execution and performance. the words of jim farley.

that was in the release. he had similar words on the conference call. by the way, the cfo talking right now equally sobering in his assessment what happened? higher costs in terms of execution. they left about a billion dollars on the table in volumes that were not delivered. 100,000 vehicles, and a billion dollars in costs paying more for things like premium freight, as well as chip shortages hurting the company. john lawler saying we need to improve quality and lower the cost now so it gets to the 2023 guidance. quickly, melissa, profit of 9 to $11 billion. basically going to come in line with what they turned this year. and free cash flow approximately 6% they are issuing a 65 cents a share one-time supplemental dividend for the modernization of the rivian shares that they sold but the bottom line is this, melissa. this was a terrible quarter. a terrible quarter and jim farley, he is not holding back and saying we got to do better there is no excuses. they have to do better

>> that is refreshing, at least, phil thank you. keep us posted phil lebeau on the ford conference call. in light of what gm posted, it makes this look even worse but it is nice to know that management is being up-front with what is wrong with the company. and there is a lot wrong with this company at this point >> agreed. so let's say they can fix it >> it is a turnaround story. >> but revenue is $44 billion. the street was at 41 the revenue was a good number. they just executed miserably there is another word i would choose to use, but proper decorum prohibits. if he can figure it out, which he will as a georgetown university graduate, yes, a turnaround story because if you just -- i mean, the revenue numbers are there to support if they actually get their act together a decent looking company. >> their act together plus supply chain issues just abate they stop. >> and the wars are happening right now, and they're cutting prices that's only going to add to the headwinds they have. the current price of the stock

is 13.32, which happens to be the 200-day moving average so the stock found its support right around that moving average. going into this print, the stock was up 24% for the month so obviously, this takes the air out of the balloon >> the stark contrast to gm, which didn't seem to have supply issues. >> right. >> it really makes you wonder, what went wrong. it's a great strategy by the ceo and the cfo to say we blew it. you're not going to argument with them. say you did terribly, which they did, and they got to fix it. >> down 6.9% right now moving on to starbucks, the stock traded at its highest level in more than a year in today's session, but shares are down pippa stevens has been listening in on this conference call pippa, what's the latest >> interim ceo howard schultz kicking off by addressing the weakness in china. seeing store sales drop to 29% year-over-year he said that was four times worse than what the company had expected in december, as china's covid cases spiked, comps fell 42%

but he also said the lifting of china's zero covid policy should mean a return to growth with headwinds shifting to tailwinds. he noted that starbucks saw a, quote, meaningful sequential in sales and traffic in january in the u.s., same sale stores were up 10%, but there was a 1% increase in traffic. schultz noting that weekly sales in the u.s. reached a record high during the quarter. now we're still waiting for any updates on the guidance front. and then, of course, this is also schultz's last earnings call he said they'll take full control of the company shares down 1% right now melissa? >> thank you very much, pippa stevens. and don't miss the first time interview with rachel ruegggeri. did i say ceo? cfo. >> well, i don't listen. >> i know. to me in particular. >> you usually do that to me.

>> it's true >> give them a pass in china that's fine. 24 times next year's numbers and few armchair technicians throughout, you go back to the summer of 2019 one shoulder $100. the all-time high year and a half ago sell-off this high failing you have head and shoulders building dan nathan. it comes down to valuation china was a disaster you can kind of explain that away it comes down to a valuation story, and i think it's too rich in this environment. all right there is a lot more "fast money" to come on a very busy night. here is what is coming up next >> buckle up carvana is taking investors for a ride shares surging this week along with a handful of other highly shorted stocks but is the stock really out of the woods? the details, next. , stocks surging on the back of meta's best day in a decade the rip-roaring rally caught a couple of our traders offguard so we wondered what do you do when stocks don't go your way? you're watching "fast money,"

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welcome back to "fast money. some wild trading in carvana today. shares surging as much as 46% at its highs, but then losing steam. shares are up more than 80% this week but it's still down more than 90% over the past year karen, you actually have a position >> i do. i have what's likely to be a way out of the money going to zero position in the puts but, you know, this was just crazy what happened today. if i were carvana, this won't be news to them, i would be trying to register, sell stock as quickly and as much as i possibly could and we'll see. they're going to come out with earnings we'll see what their auditor

says about the health of the business we'll see what they say about it they do have an interest payment coming up on march 1 that will be interesting i think in this market, they can sell some stock. they should be able to pay it. but this is just crazy >> this is so deep end of the pool when you look at the short interest on this thing, that we all take it for granted that everyone realizes what the short interest, what are you coming up with, over 50% short interest on it >> 61. >> depending on how it changes, it's between 52 and 61 and when you see something with that big of a short interest, if it really lends itself to these types of price moves in a stock. >> one more thing to add we didn't get to the bond price. it's up a lot. if you look at its debt, i think we had 5 5/8. >> yeah. >> that's not reflecking a really healthy company, right? what's happening in this stock is completely, completely just detached from what's the rest of the market of the capital

structure things >> despite carvana skidding into the close, option traders are betting this stock has more upside mike khouw, what is the option here >> it's very simple. people buy options when they're betting a on a short squeeze that's what we're seeing right now. it traded well over three times its average daily option volume. a loft that activity was concentrated in the way out of the money $25 strike february regular expiration also a lot that expire tomorrow. over 15,000 of those traded. and that included some institutional blocks of over 4,000 blocks trading for just under 2 bucks. clearly what they're betting on is the short squeeze could continue it doesn't have to continue continuously you could get a period spike take the money and run. >> for more "options action," tune many to if tule show, tomorrow friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up, green is good how the bears are surviving the surge, next. and meta posting its second best day ever, but has it come

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a lot of news happening on

these conference calls let's check with deirdra bosa for the latest on amazon's call. deirdra? >> melissa, i was already going to be listening very attentively to the amazon call but i'm going to be listening extra carefully, because andy jassy, the ceo, is going to be taking questions from analysts i've been covering this company since 2015, and i've never heard a ceo, bezos or otherwise come on the call. so that is something to look forward. to we don't typically hear from the ceo. it's the cfo that does it and investor relations so we are going to bring you anything that he says. usually they kick off the question-and-answer session shortly after they begin the call should it be soon. i'll update you. >> thank you gene munster has been listening in to apple's call he has got some color there. gene >> yes, melissa. the guidance, they say it's not guidance, but it's guidance for the march quarter is revenue down 5% that compared to the street at flat but 5% of an fx headwind

so investors kind of broadly wash that out. what is moving the stock higher is their profitability despite that drop in revenue from fx, they are expecting gross margins to expand in the march quarter. it's remarkable. luka, the cfo gave credit to them, just their cost structure and improving that it's strength with their suppliers which is why that's happening. investors seeing that as a positive given better profitability on revenue essentially in line with the fx impact. >> do you also read through to that maybe a better mix in the current quarter? product mix wise >> it's -- i think that it's their natural product mix shift. i think the biggest read is that apple's probably used this pending slowdown as an opportunity to start to renegotiate some contracts with some of their suppliers. and they're starting to see that

in profitability >> gene, thanks for that update. gene munster of deep water asset management apple is basically flat now. i mean -- >> that's what steve said. all right. so here you go i'm old enough i walked uphill both ways to school so apple is talking about fx headwinds. i thought it went down this quarter? it went up the last quarter. so the headwinds both ways explain that one to me, lucy, because it doesn't make a lot of sense. what fx headwinds? okay, that's fine. that's great as dan would say, have at it people but that's a little fugazi for me >> we've seen the market all these names that have reported in the last couple of days are the market and they're all holding in there. and earnings, against expectations, earnings have been okay so whether you like it or not, the market probably, you get the fed out of the way, these mega cap tech stocks out of the way, the market can probably move higher from here

>> well, higher on top of the gains we've seen so far. the nasdaq was up 3% during the regular session today on top of the big gains for the year in fact, the index is on track for a five-week winning streak that's its longest since november 2021. s&p 500 up nearly a percent sent and a half today its 50-day average moving above 200 for the first time since last march meta having its best day in a decade after yesterday's earnings report. so what are these huge gains telling us, and more importantly, the not so terrible reactions in the after hours session on misses, basically for the most part, telling us about the strength of this >> so we've seen this. if you go back over the last year, we saw this in march and april. we saw june into october we saw october into december okay we're having that move right now. we're up 20% and so, again, i don't know if this is the section where i'm supposed to say what i got wrong or not, but what i'm saying i'm

not so sure. this is not like the last three times here we've had some big headline blowups, right, that catch the big headlines. and the expectations come down for a lot of their peers and then when they miss, they end up having sort of price action like this and i think it's just interesting that with the turn of the calendar right now, just the mind-set has changed we're convinced that there is going to be a soft landing and all the headwinds that you were worried about at the lows in october, or those lows back in june, or those lows back then, are out of the window. i've been doing this for 25 years. and this is -- >> the only difference about this time is it's been able to hold above the 200 day moving average which is huge. >> here is the other big difference fed funds at 4.75% i've never seen a bear market end. usually the fed has been easing to have help risk assets that's one of the reasons why i've stuck to some of my convictions right here. >> at this point, do you still stick in you can have your convictions, but the market is moving against you >> here is the deal. i come on the show a couple of

nights a week. i have a podcast, i tweet. >> he's very important >> no, i'm about as transparent as you can get you can clock a ticket any day i'm telling you what i feel. to me, i can't change in the wind a lot of people who do this stuff, they talk out of both sides of their mouth all the time i don't do that. i am convicted how do you risk manage that? it's sizing and diversification. fridays at 5:30 for ten years. >> "options action." so. >> so that's hart of the whole deal too i've had a lot of trades that go to zero. you said you have that sort of thing. that's not great, but i also last year, when time trying do the same sort of stuff, i had a lot of little winners, a lot of big winners. again. it really comes down to risk management, sizing and diversification. i'm not ready to throw in the towel here just yet, because i'm stuck on the fact that the mechanism of rates going higher as fast as they have, i think that's going to be a drag on all this there is exuberance right now in the market there is no doubt about it >> i mean, i appreciate dan's

comments, because it's really hard to be wrong i'm very familiar with the feeling. it happens all the time. you got have a strategy there, and not rely on your emotions or your ego or anything like that you have to have a strategy to minimize risk. for me, buying puts instead of being short, something like carvana. that one is going to zero. coming up from mea culpa to meta culpa what the chart master says to do with shares of facebook parent right now. and later, shares of silvergate tanking after hours and asg aterinwh had been a solid day of gains the headlines behind this move, next

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welcome back to "fast money. the chart master out with his own meta mea culpa today let's bring in carter worth of worth chart:00 for more. carter >> yeah, so it's funny here we are, one quarter ago no doubt declines, saying this is a terrible chart it was titled outright speculation. buy before earnings. well, you know what happened of course on october 26th, earnings came out, and the next day meta dropped 24% on earnings miss well, here we are interestingly on another earnings miss, and it's up exactly 24%. a same value traded $28 billion on this day three months ago $24 billion today.

so what to do here and now my inclination is to fade this move you've got an extreme rerating of a stock but it's just that it's a rerating to a level where i don't think there is a whole lot of follow-through. let's look at some charts and try to figure it out so what we know is you have moved essentially 100% off of the post drop-in gap low that drop-in gap, the first was the 27th of october in response to terns miss of the 26th. and today we gap up in response to another earnings miss there is no such thing as a good or bad news. there is only news and how the market reacts determines whether it was good or bad so obviously today's miss was good you could say it's the buyback you can say it doesn't matter. stock is up a lot. but it's up to a difficult level, as annotated there. let's pull this back a little longer term. if you look at a two-year chart, and now let's put some lines on that two-year chart. basically, the stock descending within a well defined channel, and now well up and out through

that channel so where does that leave us now, having advanced essentially 100% off its low? if you look at a longer term chart, and this one has no drawings, no lines, and let's put in a line, final chart, we're back to inherently difficult level. so what to do with new money as of right now when the market opens at 9:30 tomorrow morning, if you're not involved, i'd put on a small short if you're long, i'd harvest. and if you're short and you've been suffering, suffer a little longer relief is presumptively on the way. >> my mother used to say suffer a little longer. >> cbws, last year i posited my wont to do we had the first stations of a island reversal. i thought it would trade five times normal volume. it did trade 150 million shares. so if we gap open lower tomorrow by some miracle, was i correct in my thesis >> right well, you'll need that second part for it to be correct.

so we're were it to gap down tomorrow my hunch is it probably doesn't do that in the sense there is two whiches to interpret strengths like this. is it excessive? sure but the fact that it happened with this amount of capital, again, 28 billion value traded, in a way, meta belongs here. it's been rerated to where it belongs, but probably not higher so what's really likely is that it backs and fills or gives back a bit. the most astute strategy i would say is either putting on a risk reversal frankly, or selling premium, selling a credit spread, a call secret spread. >> all right, carter, thanks carter braxton worth, worth charting steve grasso >> i agree 100% with the technicals that he just read through. i was lucky enough to be long this it was pretty obvious when it traded below $100 that you should be long the name. and it is running into that resistance that he talked about from the august 2022 level or

that area. and that's why i sold the stock. i'm going take a look again. but i do think it comes back in, probably retraces half the move, maybe 140, 150 take another look. coming up, silver gate capital plunging on a report the doj is investigating the crypto bank for fraud. the details next on "fast money. a storm? (thunder) lions? nope. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. [office sounds] ♪upbeat music♪ ♪♪ ♪when the day that lies ahead of me♪

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for possible fraud over its dealings with alameda and ftx. the report states this is a criminal investigation focusing on silvergate's hosting of events linked to sam bankman-fried's business karen, you haven't been in a trade. >> yes, and i am short now on this news. not before this. but on this news you know, this isn't great for a bank one thing that's really interesting to me is they didn't pay their dividend on their preferred. it wasn't a lot of money it was only $2 million and when they announced that a week ago or a few days ago, i was surprised. why? it's such a small amount of money. i did not put that together with this this is not clearly not a great event. >> no. but it shows -- karen brought up carvana before it shows the lunacy of this market that stock traded $19.87 today, carvana. closed in the third. it's lower now that's not a sign in my opinion of a market bottom it's more a sign that the euphoria is back, and things once again can get

extraordinarily pear-shaped. silvergate is just another good example of that. >> jim chanos was on the show monday he said usually when we see this sort of behavior, it's the end of these sorts of rallies. in this one, it's a pretty broad base but that sort of action that you just mention and all those sorts of names and crypto, it's not bullish. >> i bet the folks at blackrock are asking a lot of questions like when did you know about this probe >> buzz of their stake >> because of their stake. up next, final trades.

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let's take a check on the companies that are have reported earnings in the after hours session across the board the standout here is apple really reversing here on some of the guidance that it's giving for the current quarter. it is now down only a half a percent. and for amazon, we're continuing to watch comments from the ceo andy jassy the first time a ceo has been on this call in more than a decade, at least so this will be, of course, the big story of tomorrow. time for the final trade let's go around the horn steve? >> unh been under a lot of pressure i think it could still fade a little bit from here, but i'm ready to start stepping in nibble uns. >> karen >> pfizer. didn't good down if we get a rotation back to big

ph pharma, a good play. >> fxi >> cramer is down there in florida. >> don't say that. that's embarrassing. >> grasso said >> eli lilly >> thanks for watching "fast money. do not go anywhere. go anywhere. special "mad money" live from the university of miami starts right now. >> time is an investor's best friend but it's never too late for a little "mad money" 101 >> class is in session >> ba-ba-ba-boo-yah! >> "mad money" back to school tour >> boo-yah >> the "mad money" back to school tour is burning bright at the equator of capitalism. >> boo-yah, jim and welcome to the u. "mad money" starts now [ cheers and applause