pretty good odds of a soft landing right now, so that's different, too i agree with tony about that, about it not being a fat pitch in one direction. >> interesting earnings next week, disney and others we need to keep our eye on you have a great weekend. >> that's mike santoli all of you have a great weekend. see you on the other side. "fast money" is now. >> right now on the big show, "fast money," a huge jobs report a major apple turnaround, and despite a friday fade it was another week of gains for the s&p and nasdaq how long will this red hot start to 2023 last we're going to debate it plus, a friday edition of trade it or fade it setting the table for next week's earnings reports including disney, pepsico, lyft, lots more. later on, our chart of the week. one of the most crowded trades on the street. but is it now starting to run out of gas hint hint. i went there

i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee. on the trading desk, tim seymour, courtney garcia, bonnawyn, jeff mills we start with a fade on wall street losing momentum after a much hotter than expected jobs report nasdaq falling a percent and a half five week winning streak, longest since november 2021 right before it hit its all-time high the s&p closed a week higher while the dow, down over 120 points was flat since monday so, how do you make sense of the reaction to today's jobs numbers? this is the question, because i was on the exchange earlier today. >> exciting. >> we had a seven-person panel across two different segments try tofy wh identify what was te reasoning for the market reaction, and nobody could find

a definitive way to subscribe it tim in. >> welcome in, dom depping how you excerpt it, mine is glass half full good news is good news when the fed is going to hang around as long as they're going to hang around, even without cutting, the fact that the job market is strong -- the numbers you'll read about them tomorrow if you didn't hear today the participate ration for the job market is still below prepandemic. this was a very strong number and it's on a relative basis telling you the job market remains strong i'm not telling you we're not going to go into a recession i'll not telling you we are. strong job market. the fact that the market was down 1% when this would have been good news/bad news -- good news is good news. it was almost goldilocks for all data you had the fed, you have a payroll number we'll talk about earnings, too i thought it was a really impressive day.

>> courtney, i've heard oa numbr of folks call this the goldilocks scenario. you can have massive job gains without inflation. the inflation numbers came in soft comparatively speaking. is this good news is good news, we are creating hundreds of thousand of jobs and wage gains aren't picking up steam? this is like job gains without inflation. >> yeah, that was the exact point i wanted to bring up is wage gains are slowing the key here the only way we can get to the soft landing they say they want to get to is we need to have a strong economy and continued strong labor force is how we're going to get there, but it's the increased wage growth. showing it's easier for companies to find employees so they're not having the find huge bonuses and raises to get people in they're not having to offer fully remote and all of these perks to get employees in. which means inflation may get

down >> jeff mills, i want to turn to you hear we did a segment earlier with robert flank and what he was looking at was the numbers in terms of people who are back in the office according to castle systems, who monitors the swipe when you go into an office 50% occupancy. first time since the pandemic started that happened. it's also having a february on the commercial real estate market as well i wonder if this is a scenario where overall you think the economy has taken a step away from that recessionary chatter we have been talking about first six to eight months. >> to tim's point, good news should be good news regardless of the market's reaction because i have been talking about this for a while, but i think eventually the market is going to pivot from being hyperfocused on the fed to what's going on with the economy

and what that means for the earnings the longer we can see healthy wages, this is good for the consumer and earnings. one of the things i think is interesting relative to the wage number work do have a bit of a bifurcated labor market. we have the covid winners. they're firing folks as they overhired. we have the covid losers, mostly service sector, they're hiring people, and the covid pool is about two and a half times bigger than the covid winners. they're 5 million below in terms of head count, but i think that mix in terms of hiring and firing and interesting if layoffs are concentrated in tech and finance, we have to be careful about what that mix means for wages urn the surface. is it being skewed once we see that mean reversion, what does that mean for wages? are they growing a bit more quickly than we think because of where the firings are

conce concentrated i think the bottom line is this further cements the hire for longer mantra by the fed, and i think that becomes problematic for the economy and earnings. >> bonawyn, it's an interesting point the bifurcation brought up by jeff. it's happening every time i talk about wage earnings and job layoffs and that kind of thing, peep respond to me on social media, twitter, hey, you know where there aren't job losses industrial, manufacturing, those parts of the economy so, can you really call it a large-scale job decline layoff-type market if it's concentrated in technology, thousands at a time, but manufacturing and industrial activity is still kind of solid and people are working >> you can call it large scale but it's not ubiquitous, but you are seeing large scale layoffs i think those two things can exist. i think jeff bring up a good

point in terms of bifurcation and what that translates to in term of read on wage growth. the weakness we're seeing in technology and financials and the strength we're seeing in services is a reversion of the pandemic you see companies like apple that is shaking off what has seem to be adverse effects of covid and supply constraints and possibly demand weakening. what you're seeing is even companies like that are subject to the dynamics that happened before, as that has translated to pc sales. drilling down, getting more nuanced, you can see that yes, today was a very strong read, but if you are still pointing at the fed and monetary policy being the leading indicator that's still an area of focus. >> it's a stock picker's market. we're showing a chart of apple apple at the lows at the closing bell down 5% and closed up a

percent. tim, you say this is the greatest trade event of all time you're at the tell strait ear -- tell straiter. >> 12 moves peak to trough you have a move here, a move here, you have this move, this move, this move, this move, and this move. some of these moves are 18% the 20%. i want to talk tonight you about some of the key parts of this. the hypothesis is what it is, but the theory is volatility is your friend. it's created opportunities to trade this market. but again, if we're back here, this to me is kind of like the begin of peak fed. these june lows were right about there. despite the fact that the fed has still not peaked we've priced in what the markets priced this is peak inflation, that october 13 cpi since that point, the market rallied 20% from that point.

it's been runaway once we knew we had a peak in inflation i think we're going to have some of that. excuse me. can't draw a line with a circle. to the penny, sell off this is a case where traders are trading volatility, and i think you have an opportunity to use extreme sentiment, extreme positioning to your advantage. you're still finding great opportunities, and i think in this environment, there's going to continue to be that. >> simple question, based on, that you can see the pattern developing still "ish" a downtrend. is this a scenario, is this the bear market rally, or the october lows were it, and this is churn before we ultimately head higher? >> i think so. as the other panelists mentioned today's reading and readings we've gotten recently make us step back from the precipice of absolute recession with that said, we still see

20%, 25% moves in bear market rallies, seems to be a garden variety situation. the monetary policy we're in is going to present more of a challenge to growth than it is going to be a till wind for growth. >> all right let's turn to apple. it has been the stock of the day in my ways massive turn around since yesterday's report closed out the day with a gain of 2%. that big 7% swing, as you can see in the charts, where can it head from here let's bring in the chart master himself, carter worth of worth charting am, seems to be that spock that everyone loves to putin their trading list. >> what's key here is where it stopped today, by my work. today's high at 157.38, we're going look at that let's look at the first chart. you have apple, and that line

might seem arbitrary looks arbitrary to me, yet i drew it. let's look at the next it ration here is the thing -- there's no way around this. so, apple got right back to levels where it was literally to the penny. you see the numbers annotated. 157.26 in the autumn of '21. again, 157.50 just this past autumn, and stopped dead cold at 157.38 today and it backed away. so, what to do my hunch is it's a big move, it's outdistanced all of its competitors off the jan low, better goon google, better than the qs doubled -- tripled the performance of the s&p, so at this point i think you fade it one last chart, a ratio. apple's relative performance to the s&p. so you see the great rollover. you see the big ricochet in

recovery but the recovery in the rs line is back to a difficult level, the declining 150-day moving average. i think you fade or minimum sell calls against your long. >> all right, carter worth with the take on apple. stick around we'll see you in a few minutes on "options action" later on courtney, we'll turn to you for this one this has been a stock that a lot of folk offense the last couple years called recession proof, fortress balance sheet, the ones they can buy in any requirement because they pay a dividend, buy back stock in droves why do you want to buy or stay away from apple at this point? >> i do still think it's something you want exposure to in the long run, but i wouldn't necessarily be chasing and i think it has downside potential. i think you are seeing this risk on rally and seeing a lot of money going into big tech names, but apple is facing serious demand concerns. they missed on revenue of iphone sales, which is half their business i would not get sucked into this

rally. i think there's -- you know, it's the sexy and exciting thing to do, but i have to agree -- bonawyn said this earlier, i agree, it's more of a bear market rally. >> there's been a lot of focus on the services business, still growing 6% on a year over year basis. coming up, we may be halfway through earnings season, but there's still a ton of big names left to report stock traders are watching next week and how to trade them on the heel of earnings plus, are you out of energy? the xletf dropping to its lowest level in a month has the trade hit a wall, or are there more gains to come answers after this break nice did you get my refill too? maybe healthier is auto refills and delivery made easy. you're a lifesaver. have a nice day. how do we show strength and stability? you're a lifesaver. (eagle call)

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welcome back to "fast money. with half the s&p still to report earnings, we've got big names on deck next week like disney, lyft, pepsico, and many more how should you play these names? let's find out with a little game of. >> trade it or fade it >> that's right, it is trade it or fade it disney reports after the bell on

wednesday. jeff mills, who recently visited the magic kingdom -- i will be there at some point this spring -- trade it or fade it? >> i hope your kids are better behaved than my kids were, but that's besides the point. >> they won't be. >> i think everybody knows we own disney this is a short-term fade call what we saw from netflix was positive, the results on the add tier were encouraging. it's all about driving probability. looking for cheaper options. add supported versions of disney, netflix, that's all good because they have higher revenue per user some based on netflix, some based on the moves you've seen in the space i wouldn't be chasing the shock into the report. >> courtney garcia, mom to a toddler. i'm sure watches a lot of "bluey". it's not just the kids i watch "bluey".

disney, trade it or fade it? >> always streaming in our house. streaming won't be as fast growing as -- also when you look at their parks business, i think that has a loft room to run. you've seen how well it's done here they have brought back in their ceo. he's done very well for them i think he's going to continue to do so. >> all right, there's a divergence in the force. next up, cvs health wednesday morning. tim, what's your take? >> there's a lot of clouds in their horizon. it's been a lot of disappointment i think it's a tough space i own walgreens. that's where i'm betting on this one. i think there's a lot of bad news price into cvs, but i don't see them changing the narrative. >> i think the valuation provides some margin of safety i personally like their push into primary health.

they're not sitting back and watching people come back the drug business, so i think the move towards a more vertically integrated offering is what investors want to see. >> possibly medical centers and clinics. moving on, lyft with earnings next thursday courtney, trade it or fade it? >> lyft, i could have gone either way, but for every positive i do have a negative. they have lower growth a their ridership, but at the same time they have more revenue per rider. increased driver supply, but increased insurance cost so i don't know what the catalyst is that put us further. >> tim seymour, it's part of your l.a.g.s. trade. >> i have to trade it. it was part of my slow money trade. sequencele growth -- i think you're combining cost cutting, margin decreasing and management

that's delivering better and communicating better they can do better by communicating better i think you stay there. >> finally let's talk about pepsico, also out on thursday. bonawyn? >> similar to jeff's, this is a short-term fade. i wonder what we're seeing in terms of the rotation out of some of these staples into more high beta type names, and i'm curious to see what the economics look like. in the short-term, i'm fading it, but it's still a name i like long-term. >> my kids love the cheetos. jeff mills >> going to give it benefit of the doubt. holding the trend line, but barely continuing to make higher highs and lower lows as bonawyn, at this time defensive nature of the business comes in later this year. >> well done coming up later on the show, ryan cohen is at it again.

the company that's in his sights and what he might be able to do for it and later on "options action." a fairy tale for disney. question mark. we're laying out a trade that's looking for upside in the magic kingdom stock. you're watching "fast money" live right here in times square in new york city we'll be right back after this

all right, welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of nordstrom, up 25% topping the tape at game stop chairman -- yeah, that one, chewy founder ryan cohen -- launches his latest activist campaign to shake up the company's board,

likely targeting the seat of former bed bath and beyond ceo best day since last march. courtney, this is a stock that has a short interest component there's a lot of people out there betting against sbit, and that might be one of the reasons the stock is up 25% today. >> it very well might be, and i think nordstrom has -- it's really lacked in that expectations i think people had a lot more expectations than what it's been able to meet over the last several quarters it's up specifically on this news of ryan cohen coming in as activist investor. i think what's interesting is we're clearly going to see investors want to is an a turn around so whether anything happens or not, it will be breasting to see. many family members oversee nordstrom, and clearly you're going to have to make changes to make investors happy is this the catalyst to make changes regardless >> can we call an activist investor an opportunist? i don't think there's anything

fundamental going on what are you going to do nordstrom. it's a department store. we know what's happening there he's been extremely opportunistic, and i think you can do that especially when there's this short interest. i'll leave it at that. >> time now for our chart of the week xle energy snapping a winning streak why has this trade been on low energy right now let's go around here, jeff mill to, talk about xle. >> i feel like energy is just getting set aside after that 30% outperformance from last year. the big rotation away from areas like that into higher growth but let's not forget, energy trailed the overall market over the last ten years by 150% or something like that. it's still trading at a multiple i would consider pretty cheap. we have seen a dip in oil prices that's not helping but throughout the year, oil well supported if you look at some of the charts, again, momentum clearly pausing, but a lot of these names are backed with support, and there's still an uptrend

eog, chevron, exxon mobil. you may have to be patient, but i think it's an area you can stick with for the full year. >> bonawyn, what do you think? >> as jeff said, the rotation of out of what has worked into more speculative spaces has been a contributing factor. >> all right, quick word, tim seymour. >> i think you have triple -- 15-year resistance, triple resistance i'm a bulk you buying higher you don't have to do it tomorrow. >> time for the final trades let's go around the horn jeff mills, to you first. >> i'm going to be a seller of dhi. pretty positive on home builders all of last year, but this one's up 75% near the 2021 highs. i think the end of this big run is probably over. >> all right, bonawyn. >> i don't consider myself much of a shopper any way, but i'm not buying into this nordstrom

news. >> courtney. >> alibaba on a run, but trades cheaply. still a good buy. >> tim seymour >> don, you sound like you're playing hurt, so thank you. >> it's a friday. >> i think jeff mills and you have spent so much money at disney that i'm a buyer of disney into these earnings, and media stocks if you'll notice, the momentum is there. >> that does it here thanks to the panel. don't go anywhere. we've got a lot more coming up "options action" is next we'll see you in a bit lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast,

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right now on "options action," two different take on consumer discretionary spending. which will prevail, and how should you hedge earning season, we've hit a double for you disney and nvidia. one in a shake-up, the other way up to the tune of 50% this year, and finally, featured trader kevin kelly joins us with a post earnings play on a winning biotech name i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee tonight. this is "options action" live from times square in