level, and the yield, its highest level. final check on the markets, which may or may not end like this after the session it should be interesting, because certain people think that last week was fundamentally different, what happened on friday so, maybe we don't see the beach ball with the markets, and maybe we're in a bit of a consolidation phase. we'll know eventually. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at mpost nine of the net new york stock exchange. disappointing corporate results today and yields back on the ten-year fed returns this week, including the fed chair tomorrow our road map begins with rising hopes for a soft landing goldman ups its near-term s&p

target and tech stocks roared back so far. >> there is still pain out there. nestle is warning of more price hikes ahead. tyson is challenged by cost, and dell is cutting 5% of its workforce, saying, "market conditions continue to erode." plus tesla's surge, musk and company found not liable in a class action suit. shares are up yet again after that 54% surge so far this year. let's start with the markets and this new week of trading, jim. all weekend long, there were dissections of the yolo we got on thursday, whether single stock call option volume or short covering, best in ten years. >> look, i thought it was remarkable, because it should have been down it's almost like we got the do-over today. today focuses on the idea that this is going to be a very much more heavy tightening cycle and that maybe quarter point wasn't enough, and david, one of the things that amazes me is that we still have the long rates, very

low, much lower than short rates, because people feel he's going to throw -- powell's going to throw us in recession yet, we had some of the greatest job creation ever. how can we have some of the greatest job creation and recession? people say, he's really angry and he's going to take it down people are now saying, don't worry about the recession, because in 2024, we'll be back >> including, of course, the treasury secretary, janet yellen, who says the basic thing. i guess we can let it say it for herself. how can you have a recession with this many jobs? >> that's what i thought, david. >> you don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years what i see is a path in which inflation is declining significantly and the economy is remaining strong >> she was a fed chair also. people may forget. >> how's it going to decline

significantly? when wages are kind of -- they're not bad. they're not going up a lot carl, over and over again, all the pieces i read this weekend is, we don't have enough people. i think that if it went at this pace, you add another 500,000, i heard more people say for the first time, this is an aberrant number it doesn't have anything to do with the pmis we've seen. it's out of whack. >> we were on the front page of the philly inquirer. this goldman piece today on the tech layoffs we've gotten, they call it a ripple, not a wave, not at all emblematic of the overall job market maybe shifting some jobs around the bathtub but not taking them out. >> where the 6,500 people from dell where are they going i don't know i guess they could walk across the street if they're in austin, right? >> i guess but i mean, right.

here's what goldman had to say about it at the same time, the numbers, granted, as a percentage overall, they're very small, although many of them are high-paying jobs we do have this belief somehow that people are able, then, to go somewhere else and find another job. but they're not insignificant. they're not insignificant. >> no, they're not >> we talk so often about alphabet, which hired way more people over the last year than they are now dismissing. it's not as though that's equal. but nonetheless, jim, there are significant numbers. >> there are, but let's say you're amazon, and you're jassy. we want jassy to add a hundred thousand jobs. >> they added 800,000 during the pandemic many of them, warehouse jobs, not to take away from that important jobs but i'm saying, not the highest-wage jobs at amazon, and they're cutting 18,000 >> but we don't know if your package is going to come two days or one day if we just fire a hundred thousand these are real businesses that are trying to please customers

how do you fire 100,000 and not worry that new jersey suddenly is going to be two-day i think that jassy just believes, we don't know. but he will. they have to figure it out you have to say, look, let's take out the last hundred thousand we hired. >> meanwhile, you got morgan stanley, mike wilson, saying, all right, it's not exactly going our way, but we think it still will, maybe at a slower pace they're looking at eps revisions, right, or eps growth going negative, but then, you know, b of a, this note over the weekend that revisions have actually been pretty good. >> pretty good i mean, if you went the most counterintuitive note yet, and i love them, so i don't mean to -- but kostin price target, 4,000, raising it from 3,600 >> it's a three-month target, strangely. >> we're at 4,136. what are you supposed to do, sell or buy on this price revision i don't know my head is on a swivel >> i don't think you buy on it that wouldn't seem to be -- >> but i don't want to sell on

it who knows? there's just -- i think everyone's at a loss, carl no one's ever seen a number like that and people are looking for, what, 180,000? >> versus the expectations it's rare that we ever see -- >> why is the panic today and not monday did we really have to wait for the weekend to find out? >> you mean, not friday? >> why is it now why not friday >> isn't there a feeling that chair powell tomorrow is going to do what he didn't do in the presser? >> yes, but remember, last week, we thought he -- that he knew the number, and that's why he raised the quarter i think that there's a total confusion, but i also want to say that i don't recall, other than tyson foods, that many really -- and children's place -- that really many really horrible earnings so far this quarter. >> the tyson thing is -- the double miss on beef prices down 8% and then children's place, as you said, jim, the guidance is horrific, but they do say, inventory's better continue's 40% off the high. >> well, that's what -- i mean,

i have columbia sportswear, inventory worse, but there are some commodity prices that are going lower. i don't know i come back and just say that i'm just finding, last week was a brutal week, and amazon wasn't as good. alphabet wasn't that good. apple was good but now we're learning about apple having a discount tim cook told me china's pretty good, but the big ones, manna. find me the good one in that, other than netflix >> the good one? it won on the top there. >> that was because everyone gave up. >> they all may have given up but if you bought at the beginning of this year, you're very happy maybe you want to get out now. >> i'm with mark, you know that. you always say he's my friend, right? >> he's your friend when the stock is up 55% in the year to date >> you'd take some off if you were up 100% on meta >> we own it, but we talk about it every day, so we can't sell it we have rules. david, we have rules >> you didn't sell it when

you -- when you capitulated last year >> when i came here and told you that i had been had. >> you just told me you'd been had. >> i got had, but i said, it can't be as horrible -- it just can't be as horrible as they said, and the key thing -- let's understand, carl he said he's not spending every minute in the -- metaversing it's now a new verb. because he said he spent some time on reels and mostly because people started taking pictures again on instagram, he had a good story, but everybody thought it was going to be terrible >> the revisions went positive on meta, positive on netflix, positive on spotify. it got two upgrades, spotify >> spotify, the subscription business is good if you take a look, everyone wants a subscription business. alphabet wants a subscription business, more than they have. apple doesn't say it because they're a tech company, but they had 20 million -- they had a gigantic number of people who subscribed to service.

20% increase i find that what you're going to see is anyone with a subscription model is going to be able to help -- be helped, but i worry about alphabet, because if they really do a.i., which, david -- >> well, alphabet has a significant a.i. product it's just a function of seeing it more often. >> let's say you're a small business and you get off the subway, and says, take me to the best mexican restaurant. it would be two of four. instead, it will just say, chipotle how about the other guys you don't have to look at the ads. what do you think of that? >> who am i saying this to >> if you're alphabet, you have google search. >> yes >> so, that's now going to be -- let's say they get a.i why would you look at the ads? you would just ask it queries. >> that's probably true. >> how much money is amazon losing on alexa? yesterday, alexa said, do you want to hear a funny joke? >> your larger point is interesting in that if microsoft is successful with its

investment in chatgpt and incorporating it into bing, does bing become a more powerful search product in the future that actually starts to be used and not sort of just a joke? >> to be competitive, maybe alphabet google has to go and accept the fact that your ad won't be in the queue. >> there was an interesting story this weekend in the "times" about -- saying that youtube is what he thinks is the best search engine, actually, because that gives you practical advice on how to do things >> i use it all the time, but they should charge more. they have to charge more they'll be able to with the nfl. the nfl package is going to be comprehensive. doesn't peacock do well because of sunday night football >> i guess >> two moves to the nfl for him. i think it's always bump, bump he can just get to the nfl >> i'm saying -- >> start him on chicken prices did you notice that tyson lost money in pork? get me to the nfl in two moves >> advertising is going down subscription's going up.

whoever has a subscription is doing well that's spotify that's peloton >> jim mentions these layoffs at dell, by the way dell is confirming it's cutting more than 6,600 jobs, about 5% company cites what it calls a challenging global environment and weaker demand for pcs. >> down 37%? >> more than half their revenue. q4, they were down 37%, the biggest decliner, according to gardner. >> i was thinking it was going to be 20%, based on what intel said intel was a huge proveider of dell i have to take my intel numbers down >> even after the last couple weeks? >> it's not just because he got nicer, pat gelsinger he got even nicer. there's not that many -- look, that's -- we talked about that i don't know where those people are going to go, but it is a tight job market i'm looking at three pieces about walt disney today, saying that you got to own it ahead of the quarter, because, you know, it's the resurrection.

>> what's the main thesis as to why you want to own -- is there something along with the earnings that is newsworthy? >> well, they're talking about having maybe each division having more accountability that's possible. >> look at them all. you got them all here. >> i brought them. >> you have great preparation. >> it's something i do >> yeah, thank you. >> i just think it's right to do prep i don't know i'll stop it if you want me to >> the notion they're going to explore selling more arms to other rivals, film and tv, getting some play. >> i think that's very interesting. >> there's a belief that that was iger's strategy to begin with, that he never necessarily embraced the idea that you would be 300 million-plus subs chapek took that beyond, perhaps, what they had hoped for or expected, because the idea that you want to be not just a fully walled garden but be able

to sell to others. >> did you read the moffett downgrade? what i was talking about is come doing so well in 5g. 5g, david, isn't that resold by verizon? >> yeah, no, the -- the wireless -- >> why are you selling it to your enemy >> they agreed to these wholesale deals a long time ago. verizon sells its wholesale to both charter and comcast charter, under the spectrum brand, of course, see the ads in our area all the time. we've talked about that. these sub additions are real for both our parent company, comcast, and for charter through spectrum these are real numbers that said, of course, t-mobile will say, we're competing in a real way in terms of getting broadband into the house with a fixed wireless broadband we talked to mike seifert about it last week >> we're seeing a lot of -- >> what i wonder is when we see somebody try to do some consolidation here >> oh, give me a break

you can't consolidate companies that do storage. >> you have to wonder if you could get anything past the regulators, but somebody may try one of these days. >> ask chatgpt who's going to consolidate. >> you can ask sure does it take queries like that chatgpt? >> it does anything. if we were in college, you think we would ever write a paper again? geez they're so much smarter than we are. >> when we come back, tesla is extending its red-hot rally to start the year, hiking the price of its model y we'll take a look at some of these unsolicited bids that david's talking about, sell-side research, and the earnings this week, which will include ur,be disney, paypal don't go away. interesting piece. let me bring in my expert. mmm so many scratches... oh those are from my car keys. - such a rich history. - yeah. this won't do well at auction. but at at&t, it's worth a brand-new samsung galaxy s23.

- wait really? - mmhmm. what about this? at&t's deal is back. - wow. pre-order a free samsung galaxy s23 with a galaxy phone trade-in. any year, any condition.

tesla is up in the premarket, as we said, the company hiking prices in the u.s. for its model y suv after reducing them just last month. that increase comes after the government changed its rules to qualify for the $7,500 ev tax credit the eligibility ceiling for certain evs has now been lifted to $80,000 jim, not only that, but stocks up from $102 a month ago today, and musk has been found not liable in the funding securities >> we got a couple good takes for musk i couldn't believe he also said that -- >> what'd he say about twitter >> it's trending to break even >> that happens when you cut at least 6,000 of the 8,000 employees. >> but if you have -- if you

have good numbers for tesla, the model y's $55,000, which now qualifies for i.r.a., so you have good news for this, for tesla, and then you have, he doesn't need to sell any more tesla for twitter. >> his net worth -- i was doing the math on friday, and you know, but his net worth is up some, like since the beginning of the year, since the bottom, $38 billion, maybe $40 billion, something like that. >> i know you were worried about him not having as much money >> i was concerned that elon was not in a position to have as much money >> this is amazing they fired all these people. if you're silicon valley, don't you convene -- >> not to mention everybody comes to the office. you don't work at a musk company without working at the office. >> or sleeping there >> i think it's the 8th floor where they have all the beds at

twitter. listen, he won hardly any of these trials, these strike suits, as they're called, with plaintiffs' attorneys bringing these stock manipulation kind of claims >> we made much ado about nothing. >> it went to court, which in and of itself, was highly unusual and the judge had already ruled the statements he made on twitter as having been false, and yet, jury found him not liable, so good for him. unexpected outcome in some way saved him a lot of potential money, and the company >> well, look, i don't know how this guy took this level >> he took a lot of valuable time to spend on the stand there for two or three days in san francisco. but it was worth it, i guess, because he did -- he won >> he continues, though, to be k competitive and i think holding all the other companies' feet to the fire in terms of when he lowers the price of the y.

that's the bigger one. >> now he's raised the price because the -- >> yeah, he graduated the credit now this morning, again, "the times" with a piece about the cyber truck and can it ever be made at scale profitably the doubters remain. >> ford's so boring compared to that, other than when they miss the quarter. jim farley left $2 billion on the table. >> easy come, easy go. $2 million matters, maybe not to musk, but to farley. >> well, it's very difficult to fire a lot of people you got internal combustion, and you've got ev in the same roof it's just -- >> which would you rather own, jim, tesla or ford, if you had to decide? >> now tesla >> what was that >> now tesla my travel trust owns ford. look, that was a really bad miss and jim farley has to make this quarter. >> we have the music up, but he said tesla over ford and gm. >> look, tesla's got no more

insider selling. i thought that was good. >> it is good. >> and ron's going to come on tomorrow and says it's worth a thousand tomorrow, you'll be asking me, wow, what do you think >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell lot more to get to, including some of these research calls futures remain weak as we have elevated yields today. "squawk on the street" is back after a break. what's this, a hospital bill? mm-hmm. for 1,100 bucks? ga-a-a-ap! looks like your wallet may need a sling too. tell me about it. did that goat say "gap"? he's talking about expenses that health insurance doesn't cover. eh-ehh-eh! well i'm talking about the money aflac pays to help close that gap. aflac, huh? aflac! ga-a-a-ap! aflac! gap... uh-oh! that duck can motor! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at... aflac! ...dot com. ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family...

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dollar general and also likes ollie's. these are places that typically do well when people are being laid off, not when they're being hired. but this is all part of the problem, david we've got one economy that is quite weak, which is the, you know, layoff economy that we keep hearing about another economy is very strong, which is the macro, the labor department so, people want to recommend tradedowns, yet, why would you recommend a tradedown when everybody's getting a job? the market is really exemplify bid dollar general why would you want dollar gen? dollar gen, i don't know which one you use, you find a lot of things that are $3, $5, $7 >> you said that the other day >> i think when you look at this, this is what you shouldn't buy if you think hiring is -- we have had the greatest since '69, so all the analysts are confused they don't know what to do

do you want to trade down? matt goss, fantastic from jpmorgan, he likes burlington. you should be a seller of burlington if you think the economy's going to accelerate because of job growth. i don't know the analysts are all liking the tradedowns, not the trade ups, and then rh misses the number, although some say it wasn't a miss, but i don't want to own it they reported friday night after the close. really kind of suboptimal. >> right >> you know how they used to do that to tech companies >> yes, yes. >> western digital did that. i don't know if you remember >> you can't hide, though. companies try to hide bad news by friday night. you can't hide there's no hiding. >> no. >> not in today's world. >> it's like muhammad ali, you can run but you can't hide, float like butterfly and sting like rh. >> we got an opening bell a few minutes from now don't forget or choose to remember that you can catch us any time, anywhere, follow the 'rbaask on the street: opening be" dct. wee m after this

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apple said to be talking up its iphone line-up tim cook told investors consumers are willing to pay up for the best iphone they can get, signaling even more ritzy models may be on the way this piece suggests maybe you end up with an iphone ultra, like you have the watch. >> i talked to tim cook last week, and i look at this, and i'm trying to figure out why i would pay up for it, and i realize, maybe t-mobile would offer it to me i think what they found is that the phone companies really, this is still the reason why you would join a phone company or switch so, i mean, david, apple is the -- these phone companies hold on to is the phone, and in order to be able to distinguish themselves, it's very hard to distinguish verizon from at&t, t-mobile but you get a phone. you get the ultra. >> you're right. although we noted that the upgrade cycle wasn't as strong

this last quarter, at least from verizon, from t-mobile, and from at&t >> well, it was funny. i asked tim in my discussion with him before the quarter, i said, do you think you need to do a refresh of the 14 and he was like, what are you talking about? it just came out and i realized, oh, man, i must sound like such a knucklehead, but that was all the analysts were talking about tim does not suffer fools as well as others my god, you know, you ask him questions, and you're praying you don't sound stupid you're praying like, oh, please be smart questions coming out of my mouth. please >> very true there's the opening bell in the cnbc realtime exchange in the big board, it's nvo over the nasdaq, dental and medical supply company henry schein >> well, henry schein gets recommended today. there's a whole dental -- you kind of get these -- sometimes you get these upgrades, and all

they're doing -- piper sandler, dent supply, schein. this is the problem, recession norvo is the weight loss drug that is so controversial right now because you can go to a roman, take a teledoc course or whatever >> i understand. go to roman and get a prescription >> because the $1,700 a month. >> yeah. that's a lot of money. >> yeah. but they go around with the insurers are doing by just saying, this is -- >> you're talking about the lilly drug that competes >> wagove is their thing they don't have enough capacity and that is restraining the earnings >> constraining. >> constraining. i like con more than res >> all right it's good usage. >> well, speaking of apple, at least, and semiconductors, jim, on semi, pretty decent auto numbers. they guide a bit light, but

revenue and gross margins beat >> well, look, on has been the one and xpithat have been able to continue to parlay sales to autos as being a good story on wall street, because autos are so constrained but look, the problem with all these is that it just -- you can't satisfy wall street. they'll raise the number they'll report a better number and all that does is keep the stock from falling really hard because people don't like these stocks they liked amd because there was a big short squeeze, but then this morning, if you extrapolate dell, do you really want to own amd, which makes pc chips? it's down. >> goldman over the weekend, asset managers are piling into semis, expression of the soft landing trade, but they say hedge funds, still resisting the trade. >> these are the great shorts. what a battle. look at nvidia that stock is either up five or

down five. one of the things nvidia told me, because they have the platform for chatgpt is you need commercialization. you could really slim your labor force down by having that answer all your questions the customers rhave been unwilling to take it to where it's more than just a parlor game >> by the way, we don't even have the new version of the -- the version 4 of chatgpt is coming >> is that based on -- >> it's apparently going to be a very significant advance from what is the currently released chatgpt product. >> we know that -- >> and that will play even more into potentially nvidia being the play on the growth of a.i. >> maybe that will do it >> you don't feel like nvidia's stock price reflects at all the opportunity of this enormous -- >> i'm torn on it. >> tech and a.i. usage >> you have to listen to what jensen huang is going to say

he has a couple speeches and also interviews. i think if you get a little bit of money per word, one of these mcdonald's or wendy's realizes, we don't need that person that tells me what you want, because it speaks 27 languages it doesn't make mistakes why would you need a person? the fast food companies, i ask every one of them. they say, it can make mistakes oh but humans don't i mean, come on. but they still can't get any real big customers they're going to the auto companies to be able to make factories more efficient, but they don't have the big customers yet. >> it reminds me of what elon musk says when people complain about self-driving software. he's like, have you seen human beings drive right? >> they drive -- >> you think this is not an improvement over that? >> they're drunk, they're tired. david, people drive, and they're sleepy >> yeah. >> wouldn't you rather have a machine that's not sleepy? or would you like the sleepy person >> i think it would be great if we had fully autonomous. >> do you think if they had -- >> i'm still going to drive.

>> yes >> but can you imagine -- >> i'm just not taking my hands off the wheel. >> if the model t had this and you got to sit in the back, well, don't you think that we would all -- we would never have driven it's so inefficient because of alcohol and sleepiness >> a million things. i hope one day, when i'm older, that i will be able to sit in the back, take a nap >> when you're with waymo, they will tell you there's 20 million people who are currently not able to drive who drive because of -- elderly. that's a real big cohort >>going to be a lot more traffic? >> you can find a negative in anything >> i can i can, and i will. although, apparently, it's all supposed to be networked and therefore the cars will be able to figure it out all and there will never be traffic again. travis told me, sitting in midtown, a few years from now, all the streets in midtown will be filled with network cars. we're not even going to need garages anymore. like, wow. what's it going to mean for hospitals?

that's what he said. nobody's going to come in with an injury anymore from an accident >> oh my >> yeah. >> boy, insurance rates are going to sink. >> it didn't happen yet. still waiting. >> berkshire hathaway, horrible. >> guys, i got to hit some of the m&a takeover stuff >> i was waiting for you with this >> i got a long list here. >> the life storage. where you been >> i'm right next to you i'm right here, just waiting for my moment. >> okay, newcrest. >> i don't know where to start do you see this story? >> higher multiple >> i mention it because right behind us, that stock is up 22%. purely a bloomberg story that says, overtures, has expressed takeover interest in the contract manufacturer. i have a note here as well, from -- who's it from? rbc saying, in their view, makes

sense. longer term, we don't know whether this is the best use of m&a capital for danaher. they question its ability to compete with thermo. but they say they can do the deal, and they think the stock, at least originally, what's been trading at ten times ebitda, overly discounts a number of setbacks they have had i have nothing to add on that bloomberg story. >> remember, danahern is getting rid of its water purification system this was a spinoff of cardinal, then went into private equity. they spun it again >> came public again >> cardinal was really anxious to get rid of it so it's been footballed around >> to your point, danaher is in the midst of becoming more of a pure play of its own >> absolutely. i had thermofisher on last week. >> casper. >> they're doing so well >> tmo

>> they're doing so well that's -- yeah >> we'll watch that. let's move on. a couple of these others and then i want to get to -- >> you don't want to digest that further? >> public storage makes that $11 million hostile bid for life storage. it's all stock, up 4.192 they put out the letters in one of them, life storage said, hey, we're not for sale. you can see what it's doing to public storage life storage stock is up nicely, again, 0.4192 of public storage shares, it's all stock, hostile. it's a maryland corporation. in fact, they're both maryland corporations and when you were -- when you're in maryland, you can opt into some pretty tough anti-takeover statutes should you want to, that include the ability to sort of stagger your board out of nowhere, to also make sure that you can only elect directors through a super majority point being, maryland is a good place to be incorporated if you want to give a stiff arm to a hostile. so, keep that in mind.

>> don't they know that ahead of time >> they do, of course. they know all this stuff nominating window may have closed, but what you got to rely on here is you hope there's a lot of life storage shareholders or maybe some shareholders of both that are going to push this thing to happen. we'll see. >> that's a reet that's interesting >> newmont making a bid. >> australia is a very inexpensive australian gold mine >> newcrest is up. >> that's a good deal. you need to consolidate that industry they've been trying to do it barrack. >> barrack said, not interested. let's end with the big one, because there's been a lot of talk this morning about actvision. bobby will be a guest tomorrow on "squawk box" after they report earnings. but here's what's going on

and some of our viewers may remember i did a faber report on this weeks, maybe more than a month ago. it's all about the uk antitrust, cma. that's what this is about. and it's about a little thing in a "new york times" story over the weekend that indicated that people close to microsoft are not feeling that good about their chances at the cma we've talked about this many times. yes, the ftc is challenging it yes, the eu is still a risk. they don't matter. the cma, which you really have virtually no recourse should they say, we don't like the deal, is everything right now. and the belief right now is that -- >> it's them and not -- >> that's all this is about. >> so, david, explain to me what they're worried about. vertical integration that's never been a problem. >> the question there is, are they going to make an argument that says the tie-up would be very problematic for the emerging subscription business in games jim, i don't exactly know what their argument will be, but

there's a belief that when the -- that they will say that this would result in what they call a substantial lessening of competition. we don't know that we haven't heard from them we expect to hear from the cma any day now. perhaps even tomorrow morning, we'll see. >> that would be -- >> but there is a growing belief that even that microsoft has gotten hints that this thing is going to go against them if that's the case, that could mean the end of the deal, because again, the ability to -- there's very limited recourse, unlike when the ftc sues you and you go to trial or even the eu, there's very limited recourse under this process in the uk we'll have to wait and see now, the question, of course, also becomes, what's the downside for actvision remember, this was a $95 deal so it is not as though the market is suddenly waking up to the fact that, oh, this may not happen it's always had an enormous spread question is, is the downside a

little more because of the ea miss last week or in fact, was the ea miss because so many people are playing "call of duty," an actvision game i don't know we talked about there being a fairly limited downside in the past, but guys, we may have to be figuring that out soon. again, i don't want to prejudge. i don't know anything. we're just getting all these sort of body language kind of reports. >> i think it's -- well, we have take two tonight take two is also in that same cohort, which has been a very challenged cohort. carl, people feel these are post-covid, people are going out. we got that from american express. all of these companies are suffering. best buy will tell you that console sales -- >> your life is short thesis has been playing out >> life is short per share >> speaking of companies going public, private, back and forth, jim, this "journal" piece about restaurants exploring the ipo market they do mention panera they mention fogo de chao, one

area where the economy has not disappointed >> both of those companies are companies where the ceos felt they were radically undervalued. panera obviously had a hostile going there. these companies that were undervalued, and now we want to come public because we got a good chance. i don't know i mean, this is an atmosphere that does favor restaurants, but i remember fogo, if anyone remembers that deal, it came public and you went to a fogo and you loved it, and then they felt they were -- just didn't get appreciation they just did not get the appreciation they need no love. >> harvey schwartz, you know this guy at all? >> we should go there. >> let's go there. harvey schwartz is now the incoming ceo of carlisle of course, after li unexpectedly left the job then you had the two founders coming back, running the thing stocks not doing anything except going down former cfo, goldman-sachs. >> the question is, is he more of a for show ceo? >> what does that mean

>> well, i don't know. i think i was reading something in pub i'll call him. saying, he's thinner harvey's thinner >> what does that have to do with why the stock's down? >> that's what i said. i read that myself i said, what but he said he's more ceo-looking. >> i see >> i found it to be -- i found it to -- to be an ill advised way to look at a ceo i mean -- >> stock has underperformed some of its peers >> it's making a lot of people look like ceos >> that was great insight you shared with us on harvey thank you for that >> i mention it because it's the lack of insight that people have that i then default that he's thinner. no one knows anything about harvey, other than the fact that he was terrific when he was at goldman, but so was steve and now he's running hertz and they're buying teslas. >> buying teslas, and this guy's running carlyle.

>> it's the goldman diaspora >> maybe he'll join us and we can talk to him. >> once again, people are questioning solomon because he's getting record deals >> we were talking about that "times" piece earlier this morning before the show. yeah, i don't know it's a little thin, i think. >> i think so. i mean, when i interviewed him recently, he said, i don't say that when you sell your tomato sauce, because you're a gardener, that there's a conflict he said, you garden all the time i spin records for three hours you seem to garden for 12 hours. none of us understands why this is wrong do you have any -- >> man's allowed to have hobbies. i have no hobbies. none >> you swim. >> is that a hobby >> it's more work. >> i swim and i read really, i do very, very little i do virtually nothing >> one of the rare moments where i get to use david's swimming because of this pool downgrade and it's one of the big s&p

laggards today >> pool is really well run you can short that, and i'll see you at your funeral. jim fisk, american rascal. it's in the book about gould >> about gould jay gould? >> yeah, but there's a quote in there that says, you can short that, and i'll see you at your funeral when he's talking about gold i'm using that from now on >> you are >> is jay gould also involved with grant >> yeah, it was grant's brother-in-law's wife got involved to short gold and then grant wrecked the short. >> yeah. >> he wrecked the short squeeze. what a great story >> really quick -- >> how we got there from pool corporation, i have no idea. >> people are shorting pool, and aisle i'm saying, i'll see you the at your funeral >> one thing they're not shorting is defense, whether it's this idea that the delicate balance with china is teetering. we'll have state of the union tomorrow, of course. also, this sense that putin is going to try to do something

more decisive in the spring. right, well, we've been talking with a strategist about that for -- who was in the marines and there's a lot of feeling in the ukrainian army, if you gave them tanks, they could do an encirclement and cut off the russians and capture hundreds of thousands of soldiers. but we won't give them the tanks they need. they need more than a couple abrams they are so vulnerable, you could do a kessel raid against them >> what? >> nothing >> i love when you talk military strategy >> kesselschlact of the russians, and it would just be -- they were that stalingrad >> not the kessel run. that was the millennium falcon >> this is an encirclement plan that i developed that i'm trying to sell to the pentagon. >> just like you're trying to sell that land in new mexico to disney >> that was unbelievable, because it was in new mexico, which is very undervalued.

you can buy hundreds of thousands in new mexico still. >> if you get either pitch sold on that -- >> maybe we need to retire if he gets that done, then maybe we're done >> if i get that one done, i'm out of here. >> you're out of here too. you're never out of here >> quick reminder, by the way, you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with jim just sign up and find out more at cnbc.com or use the qr code on your screen we mentioned yields a bit elevated not a huge week for macro data we will get things like manheim used cars, china's cpi later in the week for the time being, ten-year, 3.62%. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep,

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. dow 30 heat map, you have a handful of components in in the green led by caterpillar, merck, coke, unh, as most sectors are in the red an the s&p's down oprangit points to 4116.

st tdi wh jim is coming up next. ♪♪ ♪ a bunch of dead guys made up work, way back when. ♪ ♪ it's our turn now we'll make it up again. ♪ ♪ we'll build freelance teams with more agility. ♪ ♪ the old way of working is deader than me. ♪ ♪ we'll scale up, and we'll scale down ♪ ♪ before you're six feet underground. ♪ ♪ yes, this is how, this is how we work now. ♪

let's get to jim and stop trading. >> there's an interesting piece this morning and it's about how

great this regeneron dupixent drug is. it's unbelievable for a host of immune diseases. get on board goes to 834. i agree with the piece it has a market performer. this drug is used for so many different things that it's like an amazing drug. i think this stock is going far north. >> sometimes it feels like it's keeping the ad market afloat. >> i mean -- >> see it everywhere. >> yeah. glen runs the company. wall street totally under valued on due picksent. >> tonight >> i have corteva, spinoff of dupont and tim boyle from columbia sportswear. they have a big inventory. anything seed, ag, worth talking

to tyson, find out why they missed the quarter. maybe it is some ag. >> we've got some under armor this week. baird makes it a top pick. nike not doing well. >> plank is being bullish to me ate the team he's putting together, you know, doesn't tell me about the numbers, of course, but there will be a breakout there. there will be. he's working so hard i think so under armor. >> i was thinking about tyson that you mentioned which apparently robert, they lost money in pork. >> i know. >> beef didn't come in near what they expected. >> cffo had a rough night. >> i've had that a lot when i lived in my car. >> there's also a piece that grocers are starting to lean on their suppliers to get price cuts. >> he yeah. >> doesn't feel like it's happening. >> i think it is i think that all supermarket pushback, costco is going to start doing it i think

the end of -- the house wins ♪ >> we'll hear from him tomorrow, that's for sure, at the speech when we come back -- see you tonight, "mad money," 6:00 p.m when we come back a bull/bear debate on coinbase, stack doubled this year. >> i have to watch that. >> the dow down 150. ♪

good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan, david faber, live at post nine of the new york stock exchange getting prepped for a busy week with more corporate earnings, a lot more consumer facing names along with a state of the union address, powell tomorrow in d.c., we'll see how he follows up his presser last week. >> we'll be watching that closely. 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three movers we're watching tyson foods under pressure after the company missed on estimates on the top and bottom lines. earnings plunged 70% amid falling meat prices. those shares down about 5.5% right now. new month on the move after making a $17 billion all stock

offer for newcrest, a key competitor in the country. it comes amid a strong double digit rally for gold off november lows. you can see shares of newmont are trading down 4%. newcrest spiking up 11%. finally on semi, the latest chip name to report results and guidance shares are recovering the premarket losses now in the green up more than 1%. tune in next hour to hear the ceo has san choury break down the numbers. >> friday's strong jobs report caused a lot of market participants and economists, and people everywhere to say is there a possibility we're going to have a recession theater? steve liesman has had a weekend to think about the numbers. >> no football to distract me. the numbers in the strong jobs report, if the job market is

that strong, it's hard to imagine the economy being that weak ed yardeni, an economy that has not been landing at all, but remaining airborne amid more signs of disinflation. ian shepherdson says, investors need to brace for strong retail sales, industrial production, home sales and construction data for january, if there's more income to the consumer the cnbc fed survey before the jobs report showed respondents forecasting 0.1% gdp growth in this quarter followed by negative 0.1 in the third quarter. the weak numbers will be called into question if jobs, income and spending are stronger because there's more jobs out there. the fed market gap over the year end funds rate, closed considerably as the market prices in the fed going above 5%, but now mix in 30 basis points in cuts compared to 70 before the jobs number and we got a lot of fed speak and see if they lean hawkishly

we'll talk to cash carry and paul in the early afternoon, yesterday williams from the new york fed, cook from the board of governors, and waller from the board of governors they came up with lots of single unique reasons for the jobs surprise it's going to be revised but no single thing stood out to explain it the best argument it's over stated how weak in fact earnings and guidance have been, the economy, if the jobs number is right and the economy is stronger than people think, it may be, guys, profit outlook is brighter too and, of course, tomorrow we are talking with neal cashcarry. >> to go back to chair powell for a moment, there seems to be debate about whether he would actually come out and make any more news coming several days off of a presser tomorrow. on the flip side, we have -- and i realize yields are higher this

morning and seen stocks fall after the report on friday and continuing into this week, but we are talking about loser financial conditions any reason to think he could go back and maybe shift the dynamic or shift some of the commentary and thus some of the market sentiment off the strong reaction that we saw last wednesday? >> i don't think he has to because what happened in the wake of the jobs report, morgan, is the market came to him. i don't know if we have that graphic of the fed market gap but it was 75, almost 80 basis points where the fed was at the end of the year, at i don't know, fed at 5.8 the market was 80 basis points lower than that. now it's 38 basis points so i think chairman powell needs to keep doing what he's doing, sort of say the same thing and the market now has that input, which is the jobs number and they're seeing the world the way the fed does i think he just holds the line and then, you know, three, four

months from now, if the data is better, maybe he will shift a little bit like i've been saying, maybe they both compromise market comes up, fed comes down, and we'll see. i will tell you this, that in the wake of the jobs report, jpmorgan, he dialed in another quarter point hike for may he was not in the may hike camp and now he is. >> yeah. we're going to see how many come in with maybe a call for an additional one in the spring or summer thanks steve liesman. let's bring in stifel's chief equity strategist aiming for an s&p target of 43 had 00, but worries about the rest of the year and the chief investment officer who believes liquidity will tighten great to see both of you barry, a few days ago you said the near term target largely unchanged. lower inflation, a fed pause in the second quarter no eps recession can you expand on that just a bit? >> yeah. those are three of the biggest,

most important points. the other is financial conditions which was talked about in the press conference. they have tightened, but they're only back to their 30-year average. the issue really for the fed is, as steve just said correctly, there will be a convergence between the market and the fed as inflation comes down, the fed will pause there is no recession in the first half stocks only fall when a recession start. if you look at the 12 recessions since world war ii, by the time they're declared the market reacted so we have to anticipate them we have played this 20% rally, we believe it is, off the october 12th, 2022 low we think we'll get to 4300 probably by second quarter, and we'll see from there where we go >> dan, i'm curious to know what you mean by liquidity shrinking if you're talking m2 or

something else i'm wondering when people say forward eps growth goes negative and looking at historical episodes of what that usually means for the s&p it's generally not good >> yeah, carl. that's right i mean, when i talk about liquidity, just defined very simply, liquidity is just the availability of money, right i think there's probably three key sources of liquidity out there, the federal reserve, which everybody is laser focused on controls the amount of money in the system. they got a couple more hikes and they're going to keep things tight for a while. don't forget the lags soertsds with those hikes that aspect of liquidity will continue for a while you have the banks you've seen the bank earnings. they're seeing delinquencies increase you're seeing charge offis increase they're tightening their lending standards the fastest since 2008 that source of liquidity, loans and credit, will continue to shrink and the last component is financial conditions in the

market overall and that, you know, tends to be fickle and move up and down ultimately, if you have the first two, i think liquidity will continue to tighten and that's not a good environment for markets, especially when you combine that with the recession, carl. >> barry, is a trajectory higher at least in the first six months of the year, there's a lot of fomo afoot where would you be investing to realize the most meaningful returns over the coming months >> remember the 2022 is dominated by the defensive stocks both defensive growth like drugs and biotech and pharma, as well as defensive value like food staples and household products and so forth we would shift to cyclical i would overweight the tech, which is the low inflation, better than expected economy, and it's really just as it has been, a price earnings multiple expansion off of a very low level. just a bounceback.

we're not going back anywhere near the highs of 2021 and other is, cyclical value, which is your financials and your industrial stocks and they tend to benefit when you just avoid a recession or postpone one. again, there's really no issues with the economy right now in the first half that we can see it is slowing down but we've been in a fairly soft economy in what's called real final sales to private domestic purchasers for a year now, and that's not something that has changed. one last thing is on liquidity, if you take global m2, all the world's m2, convert it into dollars, the year over year change has marked every market turn for 15 years. it turned up november 2nd. i am not even that concerned about liquidity. >> you know, that's a really great point, dan, because part of the reason we've seen that

turn up is what's going on in china. in fact, you have the reopening, the fact that you've had stimulus even as other major central banks on the world stage have continued to tighten. i want to get your thoughts on investing in china as we come off, we'll talk about this more in the next couple minutes, the balloon situation, which is now just going to propel the debate to see further disentangling of business and investing ties between the two countries. >> yeah. i mean, china is a very interesting market right now because fundamentally, it's doing the exact opposite that the rest of the world is we're going into a global profits recession. the liquidity is still tightening and yet, you know, areas of the market like the u.s. are still quite expensive in contrast to that you have china which has been in a recession, which has been in a bear market and now they're exiting. off a low base, things are getting better and that's the important variable for markets profits improving.

liquidity improving in china as you alluded to that's a big component of the story is china they've been cutting interest rates where we've been raising and they can tell their banks to lend more which is happening so you have a very, very different liquidity story. at the same time, people still don't want to own china. there's been a little bit of chasing off the performance you've seen over the last three or four months but people are underweight china and the valuations are, you know, not quite half, but half the valuations of those in the u.s it's a completely different story and i think that's interesting at a time where global macro fundamentals are getting worse. >> yeah. interesting. even the opec secretary general today said he sees a more upbeat attitude because of the china open we'll see how that progresses. appreciate it very much. we just touched on it but let's get back to it on saturday the u.s. military finally shot down the suspected

chinese balloon with a sidewinder missile see the video there. it's not clear what intel this balloon was able to gather, but a little context around surveillance balloons in gentle. while spy satellites can see everything, balloons may be able to intercept communication or electronic signals not detected from space the fiscal defense budget in the u.s. includes $27 million, which is a big bump towards u.s. balloon development in part to track hypersonics. for investors the chinese balloon raises key policy questions. does it buoy defense spending as lawmakers and the public become more supportive. see defense companies, defense stocks are trading higher today and more broadly and pressingly, does business, investment between not only the u.s. but the west in general and china now disentangle even more quickly? according to cowen, quote, one

thing we don't see letting up the biden administration's push on export controls, potential outbound investment screening, and the house select committee on china piper sandler, the biggest unknown for investors concerning u.s.-china economic relations, how far reaching the administration's forthcoming executive order on outbound investment will be prior to the balloon the biden administration said that policy would, quote, be tailored focused on things, sectors like a.i., quantum, cyber, 5 g and semiconductors is it going to become more far reaching is one of the key questions now, not to mention the fact you have the house speaker kevin mccarthy set to visit taiwan as soon as april. what's going to happen to the secretary of state visit that was called off in the midst with blinken. and in general, what is this going to mean in terms of this whole idea of dual use technologies we have already seen export controls put in place on things

like semiconductor chips are we going to see it happen in a much bigger, broader way now by the way, it doesn't just impact the u.s it impacts europe too. >> their biggest trading partner. we'll get data tomorrow regarding trade between the u.s. and china. it's probably going to be a record, despite all these concerns, record trade between the u.s. and china a lot of that is us buying stuff, but that will be interesting tomorrow. >> or their buying agriculture from us which they do a good amount as well. >> we'll see fascinating development the last few days. >> yes more to come too i think there's a classified briefing to the senate coming next week as well. as we go to break this morning our road map for the hour a bull/bear debate on coinbase as shares sky rocket more than 100% to start the year. >> elon musk found not guilty in the security trials over his 2018 funding secured tweet we'll bring you the latest. >> the salts cap disappearing

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elon musk was found not liable by a san francisco jury friday in the trial over his 2018 funding secured tweets. a win for musk after what has been he says is a rocky few months he took to twitter over the weekend to say the last three months were extremely tough,

save twitter from bankruptcy, fulfilling tesla and spacex duties wouldn't wish that pain on anyone he went on to say that despite its many challenges twitter is trending to break even mr. musk's own net worth has gone up a sizable amount just this year on that significant increase in tesla shares, some 57% higher than they were just at the beginning of the year he has seen his net worth increase by well more than the equity check he had a right to take twitter private. over the weekend they're going to attempt that starship test flight finally that everybody has been waiting for on the space side of things, certainly nasa has been eager to see, as soon as march. he also had the reports over the week that the tech overhaul at twitter specifically has caused some investors to push back on musk in terms of how that process is going one thing i didn't mention earlier when talking about the

potential china fallout the fact you have the increased scrutiny on tiktok and starting to see some of that legislation happen both local and federal level in the u.s. around tiktok i would imagine if we were to see a further crackdown in the wake of the balloon that's only going to help some of the american social media companies like twitter as well. >> twitter and meta and snap also potential beneficiaries if you really did see an actual ban of tiktok, which is still being discussed on both sides of the aisle. >> we'll get testimony from the tiktok chief. >> that's right. >> not long from now it's going to be interesting. novo nordisk seeing demand for its weight loss drugs but could growing controversy weigh on things there. we'll talk about that when we're back in two. my ameriprise advisor has helped me navigate uncertain times before, now is no different. with his advice, i'm confident i'm on track. the plan we created is for the long term. no wonder clients rate us 4.9 out of 5 in overall satisfaction. ameriprise financial.

knonovo nordisk, growing questions when it comes to safety and competition meg tirrell joins us on the heels of a deep dive with the ceo. >> these drugs have been getting a lot of attention called ozempic and wegovy ozempic approved for type 2

diabetes and wegovy for obesity in certain bmi levels. these have been growing for novo nordisk, 70% for ozempic and 346% for wegovy. the prescriptions have been growing but they have hit rockiness because there have been manufacturing setbacks and reimbursement has been difficult in some circumstances. these can be expensive, $1,000 out of pocket if you don't get insurance to reimburse we talked with novo's ceo about how this launch is different for them because there's so much interest in the medicines. here's what he told us >> we launched products, we push products, convince physicians about the clinical benefits. here we see for the first time patients are going to physicians and asking to be on treatment and that's what creates this completely different launch trajectory compared to what we normally see. >> no doubt, you guys have heard

about the celebrity use of these medicines. people like andy cohen from bravo saying everybody is taking ozempic, elon musk taking wegovy and talk ta about the celebrities using this for weight loss. i tried to get the ceo to weigh in on ozempic face where you lose weight so quickly, he would not be lured into that a he's focused on the medical use of these medicines eli lilly expecting an approval on obesity soon. here's what he said about that. >> there's approximately 100 million people living with bmi of 30 or above, so what is characterized as obesity and we're only serving a fraction of those today. really, establish this market and the benefits of treating obesity takes a lot of educational physicians i expect more competition will

help us build that market, enlarge the market. >> so guys, all of this really leading this to be one of the classes that wall street is most excited about in the pharmaceutical industry right now, probably up with the new alzheimer's drugs. guys >> the gross numbers you just showed on the screen are pretty staggering he doesn't want to be lured into it, meg, but is the, quote, unquote, ozempic face that everybody is talking about online, is that an actual stated side effect of these drugs >> it is not a stated side effect of these drugs but it is something that people experience when there is dramatic weight loss you lose the fat in the face and that's what people are talking about when they talk about ozempic face you're seeing a rise in people getting fillers to make up for that the things that are the stated side effects of the drug are gi issues and they've detailed those in a lot of detail, and it can be something that is -- makes it hard to tolerate the drugs. you have to keep taking them to

keep the weight off. >> where are we on the approval process for the lily drug for the expanded label for this and what the price is or would be? >> yeah. that is expected to come i think later this year, early the year after that we had dave on last week, the ceo of lily, and talked about that potential expansion they are competing with these medicines and the reimbursement has been a challenge one of the things is novo's ceo, even though the pharmacy benefits manager has them on formulary it's about getting employers on board with covering drugs. medicare doesn't cover these they have a huge outcome trial, thousands of patients reading out mid-year which should show whether that weight loss actually translates to preventing heart attacks that could open up more insurer coverage. >> meg tirrell, thank you. still to come, coinbase up more than 100%, you heard that

right, since just the start of the year can the gains continue we've got a bull/bear debate on the name after the break i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm contessa brewer. here's your news update this hour turkey's worst earthquake in more than a center has killed at least 2200 people in the country's central and southern regions as well as neighboring syria. the magnitude 7.8 earthquake destroyed thousands of buildings and this one came down, following a second massive quake, a magnitude 7.5, that interrupted search efforts following the initial quake. rescuers are rushing to find survivors in the rubble of destroy destroyed homes and businesses hundredses feared trapped. two children pulled from the reccage of their home. major damagecovers turkey and

syria. offers of help are pouring in from more than 40 countries including germany, supplies are getting boxed up for earthquake victories already, president biden has sent condolences to those affected and pledged assistance the european union has mobilized ten search and rescue teams to help, but, of course, we're expecting the death toll to rise as search and rescue crews go through the buildings. carl >> thanks for that markets pulling back a bit dow down 212 back below 4100 after the strong jobs number on friday and ahead of a speech by the fed chair tomorrow let's bring in mike santoli and how much the pull back matters >> the bears have been put on the run with the persistence of the rally this year so far and people picking up there could be a trend change being signaled by how things like, you know, the moving averages, the technical

clues are visible. the 50 day over the 200 day. that's tentative we have the good pattern that's gone on for the last few months and we did get over excited because part of this rally has been a forced repositioning of people who came in too cautious. massive short covering last week, people really selling a lot of defensive stuff that held up well last year. the question is, is that done and was this strictly kind of a mechanical move to the upside? i would argue not completely i think it would be surprising if this were just a pure head fake to the upside we have the credit markets cooperating. it's a global move cyclical sectors like consumer finance continue to act well the narrative got scrambled by the jobs number on friday and that's what we have to figure out because you were willing to price in fed pause even as the economy doesn't really look too bad, and now it's re-acceleration, maybe more hikes. you have a little bit of an

expected pullback at this point and i say 5% from last week's highs, that would be like 4,000 on the s&p would be routine and settled there, you say fine, maybe the bulls have the benefit of the doubt. >> how much does the trajectory of the u.s. dollar matter to this conversation? i ask because we've seen it come off dramatically in recent weeks, but it's ticking and getting stronger against other currencies in the last couple days as we see stock sell-off. >> i think it's key in the sense that both the dollar coming down, treasury yields coming down, all those things seem to basically be fuel for what we saw in risk markets and the stock market going up. so that's another way we're getting tested we're getting tested by yields perking up again, tested by the dollar does actually have a bounce here, and was it all that i mean that's the big question was really the equity rally just this move that said fine, we got over extended to the downside and bounced. i still think you have valuation pressures. you can't ignore the fact that market doesn't look cheap.

it's looks like a balanced risk/reward up here. that will not matter for earnings estimates if they don't have much downside from here, i'm not saying we're there, but basically at the same level on the s&p 500 as we were nine months ago, and in that period of time, the fed's hike by 400 basis points, the fed balance sheet lower by half a trillion dollars and earnings estimates for this year and next are down 10%. so that's kind of what you've absorbed and i think you can do that exact litany and the bears say that's why we're too high, right. you know, it seems like things haven't gotten better and we're at the same point in the markets. it's battle tested at this point and we'll see. it seems like an even debate at this stage. >> mike, one feature of this rally has also been, sort of a move up and more speculative parts of the market. we talked about ark down today, but had a very strong rally. there is a sense that that could be turning at all, given especially that jobs report and the expectations perhaps changing in terms of fed policy?

>> you know, i think -- my interpretation of it is, whenever you have a strong rally, whether it's a bear market rally or it's the start of a bull market, it's lower quality, demolished stocks that start to fly it doesn't necessarily tell you what we're in for here i would be surprised if we were in for a long-term revival of that same category of stocks that over the course of two years, really got destroyed, but you're seeing them perk up i look at all these two-year charts that look like a complete mountain to the sea and now all of a sudden it's picking up again. it's shopify, doccusign, zillow, the ones that are kind of real that weren't just completely purely speculation, they're acting better. we'll see if that's a longer term base here. >> mike santoli, thank you the crypto rally that kicked off the year is easing with coinbase, which has surged over 100% to start the year it's starting to see losses,

down about 4% right now. bitcoin michael seller telling us crypto is weeding out the irresponsible figures. >> the crypto meltdown was painful in the short term but necessary over the long term for the industry to grow up. this industry has some good ideas, like digital currencies and assets moving at the speed of light that are unstoppable and a digital commodity that can't be debased, and it also has a lot of entrepreneurs that implemented those ideas in an you irresponsible fashion. it needs adult supervision. >> here to discuss how to value crypto companies like coinbase, we're joined by moffettnathason's lisa ellis with a buy rating and 200 price target and dan with an underweight rating and $30 price market this is as bull-bear as it gets. good morning to you both

lisa, i'll start with you. 100% since the start of the year too far too fast >> no, i think we're just seeing, you know, look, it will probably settle out a little bit. we've had a big short squeeze in coinbase that has helped the short interest was well over 25% in the stock people expecting that they were going to be caught up in the whole genesis, gemini, bankruptcy back and forth and they are not affected by that in any way directly, and so you've seen the stock recover as people realized that. there was a favorable ruling in the courts last week in favor of coinbase and also helped drive out some of the bears. so we see this as look, there was a lot of bear sentiment here when you saw the ftx meltdown and throwing the baby out with the bath water but coinbase is not directly affected by any of

this they are one of the good one, highly regulated clean ones, and we should expect to see the stock continue to recover as you sort of separate those two groups of companies. >> dan, how do you see this name a $30 price tag. you're not expecting recovery, you're expecting a stark sell-off here. >> i expect a meltdown i, obviously, disagree so the survey, we conducted a consumer survey recently, and it shows us the biggest, you know -- you know how they make money because they charge well over 1%, really high fees on consumer tradings. by the way, consumers are not coming back to this rally. it's pretty much all institutional. it's over 1% difference. institutions don't pay anything. only 11% of the consumers we surveyed that traded in december came back to trade in january. there is no broad-based support

for this rally and what you're going to see is that the take rates are going to continue to come down, which is by the way reflected in their guidance for q4, and that's going to weigh on their revenue, on their profits. i think people that think this is coming back are overly optimistic. >> lisa, is the worst of the shakeout and contagion so to speak from the ftx explosion out of crypto currency market? >> we think so never say never, but at this point it seems like most rocks have been turned over and the shake out is out of the market look, the one overhang does continue to be, i would say, binance and the unregulated players still sitting offshore they have opaque financials and it's difficult to know what's going on there we would argue over the much longer term you need to see more and more of this market come in

for the market to increase confidence in the space so that does continue to be an overhang. i think the immediate meltdown effects, you know, knock on effects of ftx at this point we've seen what's out there. and the key distinction is lending. if a firm is involved in crypto lending that is a yellow or red flag coinbase is not involved in crypto lending. >> dan, i'll give you the last word here. anything you want to take issue with that lisa said or explain what's behind the 30, why that's the number >> look, i think the whole industry, i'm sort of bearish on the industry i think there's a pyramid-ish sense to this whole crypto thing. there's no use case right now, other than basically just, you know, gambling or betting these tokens will go higher and higher i kind of agree with charlie munger here. there is no use case and i think that eventually this will

trickle down and if people will see, there's no use case no real use case, why do i own these these are -- lisa mentioned rocks, these are pet rocks the companies that facilitate it, including coinbase, are going to, you know, see much lower revenues because people are not going to see value in the tokens that's kind of the fundamental view that i have that lead mess to the $30 price target. >> dan and lisa, thanks for the debate coming up we're going to hear from the ceo of activist and investment firm engine number 1 plus the s.a.l.t. cap. magically disappearing from many of the wealthy this tax season it's all thanks to a loophole. more on that sto fryrom robert frank later this hour. stay with us magically disappeary

of the wealthy this tax season it's all thanks to a loophole.

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world's largest etf conference is under way in miami. of course, our own bob pisani is there with a very special guest, one of the live shots of yours we look forward to all year long >> i look forward to it as well, carl, and miss you, of course. here's the important thing here we have 2,000 rias and etf providers gathered in miami for the etf conference one of the hot topics esg investing. joining me jennifer, the ceo of

engine no. 1 the inn 2021 they launched a transform 500 etf to encourage transformational change through are shareholder activism last year they launched the transform climate etf to encourage climate change you got a lot of attention and won three seats on the board of exxonmobil, but we know how politicized this has become last year how do you move past this and reframe the terms of the debate and looking at it now? >> appreciate that question. i think the words esg, the word woke is getting a lot of attention in the last year the way we think about it is, long-term capitalism and our biggest public companies, they always were meant to be sustainable and so what we should be looking for as investors, governance, how does the board work ap the company strategy, and from a sustainability perspective to have profit and deliver economic value companies have to deliver the profit after they covered the cost of their capital and

their externalities. >> you changed the terms of the debate, your pitch to the shareholders was based on profitability, more profitable for them to move past carbon based production and you were emphasizing profitability for the companies themselves, but instead of excluding companies you sought to engage them now. is that still a successful strategy how is your engagement with exxon? you have three board seats, how are they engaging with you >> we believe as investors we should be active owners with the companies and in the case of exxon, the board needed additional skills, so different people with different skills to manage through this huge energy transformation that we're going through. and so if i do a mark to mark on where are we now with exxon, we think the additional skills on the boarded have been helpful, better capital allocation discipline, great disclosure on scope one and two so investors like us can model how the companies works over time. exxon announced they're doing a

better job of flaring in the permian and managing that, which is a big deal, from a shareholder and license to operate perspective. and they're now working on a green business so as we go through the energy transformation, they can make money on the other side. >> you launched your latest etf a year ago, the year ago, ntz, o companies invested in climate change you have conocophillips, general motors among the top holders give us an example, for example, how is conocophillips involved in transforming climate, for example. that seems strange to a lot of people explain how you're engaged and why they're a major holding for you. >> old school egs doesn't hold the companies. in a lot of cases you don't engage with the company. we hold these biggest emitting companies. if you don't, you lose the opportunity to drive change.

more importantly as investors, you lose the opportunity to have value. if you look at the energy sector for the last couple of years, it's been a huge performers. a company like conoco is disciplined on telling us what their emissions are, which lets us as investors model that that makes them a good energy company and increases their shareholder value and stock price and multiples through time at some point they have to change from fossil to clean renewable. but we need to support them through the transition. >> you said the next decade belongs to companies in tech tonic shifts, including on climate change cathie wood at ark says the same thing. she has a list of companies, but they're mostly company companies. you have a different look at what's going to lead the world in the next decade can you position yourself against cathie wood's feelings >> absolutely. in a lot of portfolios today,

people hold growth, technology, they've ridden that change through the last decade. when we look forward, the reason we built engine number 1 is there's a huge value creation as we move through decarbonization and a huge value and creation opportunity, we'll see a return to manufacturing to the u.s. market and a return because supply chains are too fragile. we'll see manufacturing come back to the u.s. these are not themes people are invested in in the portfolio today. they're old, heavy, infrastructure type companies. and they'll drive through these changes and the portfolios, both transform climate portfolio and supply chain, will also hold the companies that enable these changes. >> interesting to see how you position yourself for transformational change versus what cathie wood thinks. you have 500 vote, tries to do -- improve or change companies' attitude towards socially responsible investing what's the 2023 proxy season

look like? how is proxy business changed in the last two years for you >> we have the net z product which is about making money through the transformation climate but a lot of people like to hold the market we delivered vote for everyone to hold the market it's literally a large cap fund but we're involved in voting i think we'll see a lot more proxies on disclosure on the social side. we need more data to model that from the investor perspective. we'll see more proxies asking for more disclosure on plans on the climate side we'll also see a change in the ability to do custom proxies effectively, where big companies will have an opportunity to put forward big investments -- big investment companies will have an opportunity to put forward who do they want on board and we'll have a chance to vote on as shareholders. >> you have a new supply chain etf coming we have to, unfortunately, leave that discussion for another day. thank you. update us on the proxy season.

the ceo of engine number 1 thank you for joining us. >> thank you >> thank you, bob. bob pisani at miami beach. nasdaq coming off the longest win streak since november '21 what's ahead in the coming days. suresults on semis after the relts that sent sun shares tumbling that's coming up in about five minutes.

as tax season gets under way, one deduction is a thorn in many's side, the salt deduction is no longer available democrats failed to remover a $10,000 cap on that. one group of americans have found a way to make it disappear entirely no cap for them. robert frank joins us with the latest robert >> well, david, this is taxpayers who own pass-throughs and they can avoid the salt cap in over 30 states. it's all thanks to the pass-through entity tax. it pays an extra state tax, passes the deduction onto the owner. the biggest beneficiaries are

hedge fund managers, private equity partners, lawyers, doctors, car dealers, and other business owners. critics say this is unfair and expensive since the benefits go to those making more than $1 million a year policy centers say taxpayers in new york and california have already channeled more than $40 billion through the loophole daniel hemal, a law professor at nyu, estimates the federal government will lose more than $50 billion in revenue just by 2025 he calls the practice a, quote, scandal and says the irs should make it illegal. quote, the biden administration notwithstanding its professed commitment to tax fairness has acquiesced in this massive giveaway to the rich new york city became the first municipality to off the entity tax. more states likely to join this year. >> i know a number of people who are benefiting from that, whether partners at law firms,

as you say, or private equity. when is the salt tax deduction cap going away entirely? isn't it going away in '25 >> it expires at the end of '25. that's the big question, depends on who's in control of congress, who's in control of the white house. whether they repeal it, extend it, raise it or go after the state work-around. this is one of many questions that all have to be answered by 2025 as part of the expiration of the 2017 tax cuts >> robert, we'll be watching it closely for many reasons appreciate your reporting on it. thank you. robert frank got the s&p down about 0.5% at this point. not too much to mention here some of the names, of course, we've seen underperforming in the past, namely the drug stocks starting to show some signs of life but there's a look at the broader markets. >> that's right. tyson's lower.

obviously, a disappointing earnings report. cool flowing got a downgrade this morning activision, blizzard and take 2 which both report after the bell today. activision is going to be in focus given all of the question marks around microsoft >> we're keeping a close eye on. cma, regulatory authority in the uk that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. "techcheck" starts now good monday morning. welcome to "techcheck. i'm carl quintanilla with deirdre bosa jon fortt is on assignment. the nasdaq continues struggles to build on a five-week win streak which takes us to pinterest, take-two and activision exclusives with the ceos of bill and on semi. one warning a slowdown is here. >> that's helping to keep the nasdaq under water the index has come out swinging this year,ot