it is 5:00 a.m. in new york. here is the top "five@5. one fed head nearing the term for stocks the buyback blow back rising as another oil giant posting profits. the ai race heating up developments overnight having some running to sector leaders. and 11th hour funding deal secured for bed, bath & beyond and staying out of bankruptcy

court for now. and why your next trip to the movies is about to get more expensive. it is tuesday, february 7th. this is "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning, good afternoon, good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i'm brian sullivan it is good to be back after a couple of days off good tuesday morning 5:00 a.m let's jump in on the state of the tunion tuesday. the president will speak tonight. look at stock futures. we are seeing green across the screen dow down27 nasdaq up 50 this after a lower session with the dow closing down for the third straight day the bond market with yields sitting where they have been 3.6% quiet in bonds we are going on months after the

huge move last year. bonds have been sitting around for six months we will see if it changes. with jay powell talking today and oil coming off 1% gain and this morning we are up a touch under 2% brent crude and same for wti natural gas is still under $2.50. with the exception of the couple of cold blasts recently, it has been no winter on most of the east coast this year it is going to be nearly 60 degrees in new york city this week why are we talking about the weather? when it is not cold, demanded for heat goes down and demand for natural gas as well. way too much natural gas prices have not crashed, but under 2%

check out shares of bp posted a record profit of $27.76 billion for all of last year they revealed a $2.76 billion buyback plan smaller than exxonmobil and chevron. bp like them boosted dividend 10%. we will have more on the program later on let's go around the world with a mixed picture in asia overnight. macro level with two markets up and japan down 0.03%. one name to watch in japan is softbank out with earnings hours ago. flagship arm vision fund posting a fourth straight quarterly loss this time $5 billion overall reported a net loss after a profit in the third quarter. the stock down a touch 1%.

let's check europe we are seeing stocks mostly higher across the board. led by the uk. the uk market up .50%. germany turned negative. like japan, it is going back and forth between unchanged. uk up .50% let's get to the headlines happening now and including a hat trick on ai with last-second lifeline for one retailer. pippa stevens is here with more. >> the ecb and bank of england and reserve bank of australia raising its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the ten-year heigh. the inflation rate is highest since 1990 google revealing chat gpt

bot. ceo is going to need quote all hands on deck to internally test "bard" as it is known. this as microsoft is planning its reveal event today whichi insiders expect it to be related to chatgpt and baidu is planning to launch its chat gpt as well and according to multiple reports, the plan is to issue preferred securities and warrants to raise more than $1 billion for bed, bath & beyond brian? >> the stock was halted at some

point yesterday, pippa this is a trader favorite stock. maybe some people guessed correctly. that lifeline could keep it going for a while. pippa, thank you who would have thought bed, bath & beyond the favorite stock. the new gamestop right now, back to the broader markets and investors with the cause for concern and what it is all about which is the federal reserve. raphael bostic highlighting the jobs numbers central bank may have to raise rates more to try to cool inflation is what he said. this comes after jay powell will speak this afternoon that could be a market mover joining us to talk about it is bill stone, chief investment officer, of the glenvue trust.

you will not say selling everything and invest in bbby. that is not what you are going to say what are you advising clients to do after what was a red hot start to the year for stocks >> i think stay the course be mindful that we may not be through the volatility we certainly, you know, here is where it gets difficult. the payroll numbers certainly changed my math on bringing down the odds of recession. it didn't change the i still think it will happen thought, but it makes me less sure of that call. you have a lot of the growth ier stocks re-priced a bit the move in the s&p and higher on the growth side of the equation it is unclear whether we get the soft landing or not. certainly the market thinks inflation will get taken care of

eventually maybe a soft landing or partially priced in there. when better news is priced in, you have to be more careful, i think. >> goldman sachs reducing recession odds down to 25% the jobs number is helping as well we keep hearing layoffs, layoffs, layoffs maybe we will have peak earnings and energy and few other select sectors as well. i don't know about you, bill, but i have been doing this -- i'm getting old -- i have been doing it a while i'm not sure i had a year with less visibility about what may happen with the american economy. what about you >> i agree i got to say i felt quite sure of myself last year that, you know, with the yield curve inversion and every yield curve inverting, you would likely see

rece recession. that being said, you have the undercurrent with jobs holding in i'll give the bold case around it if jobs holds in, then 80% of the economy is the u.s. consumer and if they continue to spend, we don't have to go into recession. i get that you can look around the economy. i can find a piece of housing which is a mess. honestly, a bounce in that recently off a low >> housing has held up in many areas, be particularly in the d.c. area which tends to prosper anyway quickly, bill, with that lack of visibility, is it fair to pay about 17.5 to 18 times forward earnings for the s&p 500 does that seem like the right multiple to you? if it is not, that means stocks may need to go down or earnings

need to go up. >> obviously i'll put bad news as good news we continue to see earnings estimates slash for 2023 of the then, obviously, that gives you a chance to get over that or go higher if we get the soft landing. the second part is a lot of the valuation is concentrated in a small number of stocks you could find, particularly if you go with the smaller caps, cheap stocks now >> small caps is the place to be you think? >> i think so. the relatively inexpensive stocks and if we get a soft landing, they will be particularly strong. >> domestic based companies or russell 2000 go america, by the way eagle on the shoulder. bill stone, i appreciate it. thanks for getting up early. we are just getting started on "wex.

when we come back, another one bites the dust in the internet ad sector. one stock still does shine. more on bp's blowout report this morning and the rising risk of buyback blowback. and the new war that mercedes launched with the ev van wars more on "wex" when we return after this wow! it's been 38 years since we were here. back then we could barely afford a hostel. i'm glad we invested for the long term with vanguard. and now, we're back here again... no jobs, no kids, just us.

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welcome back good tuesday morning investors getting a look at the internet advertising space in the wake of mixed reports from meta and alphabet. now pinterest shares are down after sales disappointed pinterest management echoing similar with the digital ad space as rivals join what does it mean? we are piecing the puzzle together with rocco strauss. good to have you on early. what is your take from pinterest and their quarter and what should investors focus on the most >> brian, let me draw the picture here in november, we put out the 2023

target of the digital ad market to decline 8% in 2023. now meta and google reported, you see nvidia out performing. amazon is growing on platform business by 20%. and advertising is in retreat. snapped that part of the business down in that quarter. that makes sense with the early recession environment. brands get cut before the performance side let's focus on the three reasons of the declining ad market we see a rise of inventory across platforms with reels and shorts and pins. what is across the platforms is the increase of impression of user growth. there was flat engagement.

that was likely not repeated we will hit some ceiling in 2023 the second issue -- >> rocco, sorry, let me jump in. it is early. our viewers are waking up, not like you and i up for houring chugging coffee. pinterest is a $26 stock it is like a bologna sandwich. you have to eat it and not enjoy it >> google is easier to understand have you more options with subscriptions and cloud. we believe pin is a special situation. we expect the deal with google business and that curtails media business and that is the

signature materializes and you will see increase demand by tenfold and that makes pins withstand the recession for the second half of 2023. >> wow a lot of optimism on pinterest if we have to own somebody, pinterest and buy on alphabet. if you own somebody, you might as well own the big dog in the space. that is google >> that's correct. especially ad is resilient in the recessionary environment the companies still want to be found. i think what was overlooked by the market is also the inflationary impact that we will see at some point in the later half of the year if you see inflation, it plateaued in the second and third quarters last year

that means the artificial growth and ad dollars by high input costs passed on to consumers is not happening. you focus on google and pin. >> pins and google rocco, thank you have a great day >> thanks, brian. you are very welcome on deck, the countdown is on to the super bowl let's go, eagles it is not about the eagles, go eagles, or the chiefs. contessa brewer is here on what could be the real winner on sunday sunday we are always a winner whe to ly cyberattacks slow you down. so you partner with ibm when contessa is on "worldwide

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welcome back i'm going to break news for you right now. the super bowl is sunday the game starts at 6:30 p.m. eastern time the eagles are the slight favorites to win with the betting line in vegas are the eagles minus 1.5 why are we telling you this? the big winner on sunday is one of the teams, but likely the sports betting companies more americans planning to spend big bucks on the game. contessa brewer getting a first look at the money that is at stake. contessa, there is a lot of

commas in the numbers. >> this is remarkable. the first time the super bowl is played in a state where sports betting is legal one in five american adults say they will bet on the super bowl. that's according to the survey released from the american gaming association it shows a record 50.4 million americans plan to gamble on the game that is a 61% increase from last year the handle on the game, that is how much is wagered, survey says $16 billion. double last year those numbers include not just people betting can sports books, but office pools and fun bets with friends 50% more people this year than last will do social betting. that is likely growing because people are back in the office. they have the boxes to pass around or they are going back to parties. as for the sports books, the

super bowl is an important opportunity for exposure for the occasional sports fan. fanduel with 45% market share followed by draftkings and bet mgm. caesars and penn and bally's looking to grow their customer base. >> sports betting as an industry is quite exciting. certainly we have seen incredible growth over the last five years in the industry, but the adjacent industry is important. every stadium is now wired with 5g we have geo location servicing companies to help and expand the reach of the industry. it is in fintech is an element to sports betting which has exploded in the last five years. >> the nfl benefits. the survey shows 34% of the

surveys says legal gambling made it more enjoyable to watch the football game. brian, america has their money on the eagles. the survey shows it is split over which team they will bet on >> obviously that is how it is supposed to be contessa, the betting companies don't care necessarily who wins, but they want to make sure the money is down the middle and they take their cut. what is amazing to viewers and be serious here. i was posting my bets online for information purposes only. i did pretty well. if you have your phone and you are on an app, you can bet on thousands of things. in-game betting. a fumble touchdown? you can get addicted to sports gambling i could see it being very easy

a bun button away. what steps are taken to promote responsible gambling you can get hooked on this >> in every state, there are regulations concerning responsible gaming these legal sports books must offer, by law, the tools for responsible gaming if you go on your phone, you can make a plan ahead of time to decide how much you can afford to gamble and stick to that. not only the industry and sports books, but also the nfl is partnering on that front the nfl told cnbc it takes it seriously and it is heading to promote this planning ahead for the amount of money you want to spend on what they hope you will consider entertainment to make the football game more enjoyable. on that note, they will limit the number of ads accepted for sports books for that very reason so it is not clocking everybody over the head with

sports gambling. >> on a different side, i think all my friends are eagles fans go eagles, by the way. the seats are like $6,000. all one of my friends. $6,000 for the worst seat in the house for the super bowl. >> it is easy to be the 1% >> i hope you are on the sidelines. contessa brewer, thank you i appreciate it. >> sure. as we head to break, we are watching shares of chegg an online earning company. shares are getting a big fat "f." down 23% the company citing economic uncertainty and subscriber growth conversation. t -- growth concerns. some kids missed more than a full year on the classroom rooting for the kids they have a long way to make it

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get ready for more fed speak. jay powell could move markets again when he speaks later today. lee baker is here to break it down. banner year for bp as it jumps on the buyback bandwagon president biden is expected to bash buybacks in the state of the union. and two top lawmakers raise

worries over mark zuckerberg "worldwide exchange" will tell you all about it as we roll on right now. welcome or welcome back. good tuesday morning 5:30 a.m. on the east coast. thanks for being with us or listening on our podcast later on today happy afternoon, i guess let's get to the markets futures are a little higher across the board not a lot. dow futures up a touch up 37 points nasdaq could be the star nasdaq futures up 56 points. dow is down three sessions in a row. well up for the year overall, dow down three sessions in a row speaking of markets, you know it has been a good start to the year do you know how good it has been for many investors who had the brains or the guts to get into

tech or a few other stocks late last year? first up, the nasdaq 100, the qqq and that nasdaq 100 index is up 14% this year. that is the exact opposite of what happened last year. remember last year to start the year, tech got destroyed in january and february this year, completely flipped. check out stats that we put together just for you, loyal viewer and listener. 65 stocks in the nasdaq 100 are up this year 23 of those have gained 20%. five stocks have boomed 50% since january 1st. who are the stars? here you go. the up 50% or more club this year meta, facebook up 55% tesla up 58%

warner bros. up 63%. and align is up 62%. and many of these names or the same ones that got crushed last year if you bought them a year ago, you may be down. if you had the genius to time it, you made a lot of money. by the way, in the boring, old dow jones index, salesforce and disney up more than 20% this year bottom line, it has been a good start to most stocks in 2023 let's get back to the key headlines for tuesday with pippa stevens. >> brian, facebook and instagram parent meta fplatforms is under

pressure from mark warner and marco rubio. they sent a letter to mark zuckerberg saying they are concerned with the developers in russia and china with access to user data. they held meetings with executives over who could access the data and what facebook plans to do about it. and the new york stock exchange plans to make some investors whole after the glitch last month the exchange operator saying it plans to cover losses for orders posted or routed to it and o others will not be covered it ranges in the single digit millions which is far more than it sets aside. and cvs health is buying oak street health for $10.5 billion including debt according to the wall street

journal, the deal is expected to be official this week. shares of oak street surging on news ahead of the open which is up 36% brian, a lot of movers today >> yeah. if you had the wherewithal to buy oak street last night, take the family to dinner tonight >> that's it. >> in life and stocks. pippa, thank you one of the big money movers of the morning that is bp the company posting a record annual profit of $28 billion bp hiking dividend 10% the west's biggest oil company clearing more than $160 billion in combined profit last year and handing investors back $180 billion in buybacks. it is the buybacks in particular

in the $75 billion announced by chevron which is ruffling feathers in the white house. the white house says the president will propose quadrupling the tax on the buybacks in the state of the union tonight. with the republican controlled house, that is probably impossible he will call for it in the state of the union speech. the administration, you guessed it, is likely to call out energy companies in the preview for tonight's state of the union let's talk about the energy sectorin general with jason gabelman jason, we can go into the fight over buybacks all we want and it is a popular and easy to sell with the american consumers. they are making all this money and buying back more stocks instead of drilling for oil now that the white house wants us to drill more oil

why aren't investors giving more respect to the energy companies who are just printing money? >> well, good morning, brian thanks for having me in 2022, they did get a lot of respect. there is a bit of a pause on that rally here and i think a lot of that is related to probably tech out performance and a bit of rotation out of energy we think that will be short lived. we agree it will be difficult to ignore companies returning a lot of cash to shareholders throughout the year. we think energy stocks will continue to work >> now, listen, you have not had a chance to publish your note on bp i will not ask you specifically about bp numbers as we put up the one-year chart on bp, you are right, the u.s. companies have gotten respect. a year ago today, bp was a $36 stock. or a $34 stock and now today it

is a $36 stock it hasn't moved much we are showing the european look on the screen. it hasn't moved all that much. is that because the european companies -- you think the pressure here on climate change is big, but they are getting crushed over there and they are investing in projects which may or may not work. can we own the european companies here >> yeah. there's a bit of value dispersion with the eu and u.s. companies and the eu companies screen more cheaply. it seems like there is an opportunity to own those names as we expect the value cap to close a bit. specifically to bp their strategy has a hard pivot to energy transition than some of the peers the outlook has been muddy over the returns moving forward and given their investing more in

renewable power than be peers. those returns are a bit more under question i think that is part of the reason the stock hasn't performed as well as others. sorry. >> no, no. my bad, jason. for viewers that may not understand, the european majors are basically forced to take a lot of the profits and capital spending and put them into renewable energy projects. here, we are told take your money and drill more oil wells by the way, they will drill. exxon and chevron are raising production there is limitation on labor and other things how long do you think the good times can last, jason? what is the single best one or two names for our viewers and listeners to own right now >> i think 2023 is another strong year. opec is clearly showing a desire to manage oil prices and protect

to the down side you saw that with opec pro-actively cutting and $50 is the new $75 for oil prices companies used to need $75 to cover dividend and now they only need $50 you don't need to worry about the dividend being cut on the flip side, the dividend will continue to grow. we think chevron and shell are two names that investors can own that have upside through 2023. >> jason gabelman, thank you i appreciate it. i'll let you get back to the bp note with record profits that will thrill a lot of people in d.c jason, thank you coming up, your morning rbi. random but interesting on what you think is the biggest problem facing america right now and it may surprise you plus, forget the ev price

war. mercedes is fighting another all-electric battle. phil lebeau is live in ladson, south carolina, wherever that is, with the exclusive reveal. >> outside charleston. when you talk about the ev race heating up the commercial van market. right down there is the e-sprinter from mercedes we will show it to you live on "worldwide exchange" right after this

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time for the morning rbi the most random but interesting thing you will hear all day cnbc style. tonight, the president will give the annual state of the union speech we don't know what he will say, but he will take a victory lap with the jobs and economy. there are problems in america. education setback for years after locked out of schools and mental health issues and fentanyl to name a few issues. overall, what do you think is critical for america right now gallop did a poll on that. the answers were a bit surprising look at this, gallop surveyed americans and asked this, quote, what do you think is the most important problem facing america right now. pretty big question. 21% of respondants said the

biggest was government itself. if we had the other graphic up one in five said the government needs the most fixing right now. that is up 6% since the previous poll what came next on that list? inflation. 15% of people saying it is still a major problem because while we have seen headline fliinflation come down a bit, but you realize costs are higher for housing and food and energy and car and health insurance and a lot of others th third on the list is immigration. even so, we hear a lot about that tonight hard to say. probably not the top five is the economy in general and unifying the nation as the biggest problems in america right now. interesting list and survey from

gallop people are not happy with the government i'm not sure what they meant by government, but both parties adding trillions in new debt to our kids and grand kids and higher rates that will cost more to service i thought what stuck out to me was covid was not on the list. anything under 4% of respondents did not reach the list people are still in the hospital suffering. it was not on the top ten list of things or problems in america right now. random but interesting how would you answer the same question if we asked what is the biggest problem in america right now, what would you say it seems like a good twitter poll we'll see. let's get to phil lebeau he has a giant debut right here on "worldwide exchange" in south carolina i love this stuff. phil lebeau, take it away.

>> reporter: brian, it is not often we get to unveil a new vehicle. check this out this is the new mercedes e-sprinter you know the sprinter. you see it in the neighborhood delivery service bringing last-mile packages the head of the mercedes in the passenger seat there this goes into production second half of the year range of 250 miles why is this important? the commercial van market is competitive and lucrative for the automakers the leader has been for some time which is ford you look at mercedes at number four at 16% market share there is demand for electric commercial vehicles and the e-sprinter will do well. >> i think there is a change in the industry toward the commercial vehicle and transforming that to electric.

if we want to focus on the future of the sustainability >> reporter: look at shares of mercedes-benz. the company twill be reporting full results next week it is quickly electrifying the fleet of vehicles and big part of the move in the united states is with commercial vehicles. the e-sprinter is the next leg of growth in the country, brian. you are seeing it for the first time we will see this out on the roads around the country later this year and early next year. it goes into production here outside of charleston. >> i feel it first off, charleston, as we know, phil, is one of the most spectacular cities i hope you went to halls to get a steak. you need a second home between boeing and volvo and now mercedes-benz and bmw. all of these things, can they find the workers

that has to be the hottest job market in america right now. >> reporter: there is huge growth in skilled labor in the area we were down here when they first opened this mercedes-benz plant. they have over 100 employees now they have 1,600. this is a different campus now than it was in the late '90s it continues to grow that is wis what we are seeing. manufacturing has taken off. they believe the e-sprinter will do well. they are optimistic with production growing over time. >> we talked about the energy crisis in europe, phil it is expensive to make stuff. there all of the input costs i have to imagine the u.s. and these workers down there can be very cost competitive. >> reporter: yes absolutely they won't be doing if they didn't think it would be cost

prohibitive. they believe they have to grow production that is why we are showing it you here on "worldwide exchange" here in the u.s. >> we appreciate it. phil, i can't picture you going to the arcade kind of kid. i did. i was a nerd i got a serious qbert vibe with that paint scheme. i think phil knows move aside we have to see the paint scheme on the van it's fantastic i might do that on my personal ride qbert on the e-sprinter van. phil, thank you. good stuff. as we head to break, during february, we celebrate black heritage of stories of our teammates and friends and leaders in business. here is our senior field pr

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time for the wrap up six stories as we close in on the 6:00 hour. raphael bostic says the fed may need to raise rates to a higher peak than initially expected the bank of australia raised its

interest rate by .25%. the death toll from the earthquake in turkey and syria has surpassed 5,000 souls. just difficult to see there. shares of chinese baidu hitting an 11-month high they are planning to announce a chatgpt rival. all you traders, listen up bed, bath & beyond with a crash influence to avoid bankruptcy for now. it could raise up to $1 billion. and amc theaters is revealing a plan to pay more for better seats in the theaters they plan to have a new pricing

tier by the end of the year. it is not about getting there early, but paying up. let's get into the trading day ahead with lee baker who is owner of apex financial. lee, another day with the fed speaker. we have to have a fed speaker every single day how much are you listening to the fed? every day. >> every day a day without a fed speaker is a day without sunshine we have to listen. it makes sense we're following along. we understand its dynamic. we can't get too far ahead of ourselves. it does seem they are following the data the fact of the matter is we don't always know the data the jobs number from last week clearly shows it >> yeah. i know we have to pay attention to the fed and it moves some bonds. here is the the dirty secret,

lee, don't tell anybody. the 10-year treasury is pretty much where it was six months ago. yield inverted stocks got crushed bonds have been very, very stable for the better part of six or so months what should that tell you and tell us about investing right now and where to put our money >> i think it tells us a couple of things. one, the bond market has not changed its mind if there is likely to be a recession we have seen some people drop the odds of recession. i think it is still likely to occur some time this year. that is the first thing. the other thing is when we take a look at bond yields and what we normally get from the stock market in terms of dividends, we're about 1% more for dividends in the stock market. that is not enough to take on the additional risk. i think there are a couple of things we can take as a signal from the bond market where rates

are currently. >> what do we do what is something good to own right now, lee we had the stats a really good start to the year. >> absolutely. you know, one of the things i like is tesla. for some of our clients, they were lucky from the timing perspective. did not buy at the beginning of last year and bought latter into the year that worked out well so far. one of the things we're doing is playing defwense in sectors. thinking about the super bowl and sometimes the best offense is a good defense. some of the pressure that tesla has put on the rest of the market by cutting prices, you want to keep an eye on who that effects the most >> tesla play there. the timing of the market, lee, you are better good than lucky i'm going to assume you will not see a 75% gain in 60 days like

we did the momentum we had in tesla and others is not sustainable? >> absolutely not. i love for that to be the case and wouldn't we all? i think the fact of the matter is we've gotten a fair amount of the juice we will get so far this year. i think things are likely to be a little choppy. for our clients who are the longer-term investors think tesla is a good place to be for the long term. >> yeah. it is to your broader point, lee, i wonder if most of the gains for the next 11 months, we have seen the highs for the year we will see. lee baker of apex financial. i appreciate it. thanks very much have a great day. folks, that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange. we'll leave you with a bit of green on the screen. dow down three days in a row futures are a touch higher as well nasdaq up a little bit more. a lot of big stories out there state of the union tonight we'll see you tomorrow morning

"squawk x"s xtbo ine

good morning.sharply higher. the latest oil company to post a profit

the ai chatbot gold rush is on microsoft announcing today and google is asking employees to test its version and baidu shares surging after it announced a new ai product. we are counting down for the state of the union speech. i'm in washington. it's tuesday, february 7th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. live from wall street and washgt