tv Street Signs CNBC February 8, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EST
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that's all for this edition of dateline. i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching good morning and welcome to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche >> and i'm arabile gumede. these are your headlines. european markets get off to a high wall street opening losses after fed chair jerome powell signals more rate hikes are ahead. fourth quarter reported net products slumps 35%, but it
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still seeks expectations he expects economic conditions to improve. >> the central scenario we've had for many months is that of self-planning. not a great growth zero plus in the u.s. as well as in the eurozone, but amid a catastrophe b we see the market controls very well. there's a record-break ing result on the energy sector. and the selloff deepens in the wake of monday's massive earthquake almost 9,000 people now confirmed dead with many more missing. we'll be live in turkey this hour
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good morning, everybody, and welcome to "street signs." as we've been talking about the last couple of days, the stockmarkets are very much in central bank watch modes, and yesterday we got a little more commentary on fed chair jerome powell speaking yesterday in washington it had been a big focus for watchers going into the event. he didn't say anything new he did say the inflationary process is on track, but also there is more work to do as far as rate hikes are concerned, but the market interpreted that as quite dovish u.s. stockmarkets yo-yoed as he was speaking, but toward the end of the day, we did end up in positive territory over here we can see the stoxx 600 is also having quite a positive reaction today, up around two-thirds of a percentage point we're now sitting at a nine-month high for the stoxx 600, the highest since april
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2022 thing are possible tissue right in the heart of the earning season switching over to european forces, you can see everything is trading in the green. it's at an all-time record high. there you go, the ftse 100 keeps inches higher. we've had these bumper earnings coming out of the oil and gas earnings giving it a bit of a boost. it is worth pointing out that the ftse has continued to make new highs. the xetra also up. those earnings came out this morning, so that is one of the dri drivers. we had results out of the energy company. also some green over there
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ftse mib also up the italian bank has been under a lot of focus, also better than expected results so a positive sweep across the board today. we have real estate leading at the top, 1.5 percentage points, oil and gas up 1.4 we've talked about the strong earnings we're also seeing a bit of a rebound in the spot price, this as asian demands starting to pick up. something to watch there chemicals up 1.4 percentage points, and then the really active underperformers, the defense basket tends to perform on more positive days and the industrials basket also up a tenth of a percentage point. now, switching over to the banking sector, i hinted at this earlier, it did beat expectations for the fourth quarter despite its reported net income folding 35%
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the frenchbank posted a strong revenue for the quarter, citing resilient performance and retail operations charlotte joins us with more char charlotte, help us make sense of a lot of these numbers i guess the takeaway it is positive it's benefiting as well like european banks from rising interest rates >> yes, joumanna it was better than expected despite the profit being down 357. it was above expectations, 1.16 billion euros. the full profit came a little bit above expectations there are a few things catching the eye of investors 114 million shares in buyback. they were hoping for something more toward 800 million. the cost of risk between 30 and 35 basis points for this year. it was up 20 this year, so
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higher cost of risk for next year that's also reflecting the increase increasing five fold over the couple of quarters coming ahead as you said, french retail banking profited a little bit. others are benefiting a little less because the mortgage rates are fixed for a long time, 20 to 30 the savings account is linked to inflation as well. as you said, good performance in the investment bank with revenue up 14% in q4 with it performing particularly well off of higher interest rates there's so much news going on and so many challenges one that made a big acquisition when they bought a plant to incorporate it with the car leasing plant. it was 5 billion euros at the
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beginning of 2022. they were to exit the russia business with a $3 billion euro hit of the war with russia and ukraine. retail announced a joint venture and, of course, the departure of the man who's been at the helm of the bank for almost 15 years. a huge amount of changes just over the past year i had a chance to catch up with him. after all these changes, he felt that the bank was on safer ground for his successor >> it's an extraordinarily intense year we have been working like mad, and i would like to thank all the teams.
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i believe i'm leaving the bank in strong hands. it's the highest a strong capital rash yeo, 13.5%. much above always what the market was expecting i think with all the markets, we bear fruits in the coming two to three years, my successor has a good and solid platplatform, anm sure he'll do very well. >> the share price is lower than when you started 15 years ago. you have the lowest of most european banks is. that going to improve? is the work we just mentioned over the past year going to be different going forward for your successor? >> yes first of all, compared to 15 years ago, there have been a lot of changes it's not the same. yes, i believe if we carry on
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delivering what we've said, this price will go up and i'm sure he'll have the civility to do that the transition is working well, and i'm sure he'll be able to have a price which reflects much better than the intrinsic value of thefrederic oudea a little bit lower than expected a higher cost expect even though for 2025, it reconfirms the target below 62% a bit lower than expected for the french bank. guys. >> charlotte, thank you very much for the information on
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societe generale joe biden has called on republicans to help him finish the job in his state of the union address to the house of representatives. in a 73-minute speech he dealt with heckling from republicans as he set out for a call of unity regarding the national debt and approval ratings. he touted the economic achievements of his work so far as he turned to the re-election campaign. >> the unemployment rate is the lowest, a 50-year low. >> now thanks to what you've all done, we're skporgt american products and creating american jobs the pandemic disrupted our supply chains and putin brought
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on this war on ukraine affecting food supplies, blocking all the grain. we're better than any country on earth right now, but we have more to do here at home inflation is coming down here at home gas prices are down $1.50 from their peak. food is coming down. not fast enough. inflation has been falling for the last six month. >> we have set out the five key economic points on biden's speech on cnbc.com. meanwhile jerome powell says inflation is beginning to ease but cautioned on tuesday the fight could take quite a bit of time the session ended higher after a cautionary note on friday's jobs report sent them into the red. powell also reiterated inflation isn't fading everywhere and hinted at how long the fed could
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be forced to keep rated elevated >> we're seeing inflation in a good sector. we expect to see it in the housing services sector, and that's -- these are the three parts of the core pce inflation index that we look at. there's 56% of the economy, which is the rest of the services sector. it's the biggest part obviously. and we're not seeing disinflationary yet. that's going to take some time we're going to need to be patient, and we think we'll have to keep the rates for a time before they come down. >> still very early, but let's look at the u.s. markets stock futures looking lower. trade there, you are still digesting a bit of fed chair jerome powell's comments as we noted. the likes of chipotle had fallen 14, 15%. overall the market seeming a little weak on that front.
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onto the currency front, the dollar fell yesterday following jerome powell, sound a little less hawkish on interest rates than expect, leading investors to believe the interest rates will not rise too much further. all right. we're joined now to unpack this market movement. what's your thoughts when it comes to the fed chair's -- fed chair jerome powell's sentiment yesterday? was it a sort of indon sis tency in messaging or did you feel like he became a little less hawkish yesterday? >> yes i think the tone is one of predeclaration victory he seemed come play end in his rhetoric and there's an opportunity to push back the dollar had a bit rally, but that's because the ecb and bank
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of england appeared really actively dovish. there was not that sense we have a fed that seems to be really declaring victory here, seeing a soft landing coming in, and no threats on the horizon. with some of the rear guard rhetoric about we need to respond if the incoming data proves to be uncomfortable what i think we see is a re-acceleration of the cycle we could see the inflation picking up once again as well. i think it's a dangerous moment for the fed that was so poor in enforcing inflation on the way up, why would they have a sense of where to set it down or the policy we'll have incoming data that's in the driver seat, not fed guide answer in the end. >> we've heard from other fed officials speaking how normal work needs to be done especially after the buoyant jobs numbers and how rates may necessarily stay a little higher for even a
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little bit longer, right so do you think the -- it's a bit too optimistic for the market to be pricing in a potential drop in rates by the end of this year >> i definitely think it's premature on that front. i think the cycle going to prove far more than the market expects. let's not forget all that heroic intervention to suppress inflation is a one off you can't drill down in the reserves more than once. now we've cleared away -- we're clear of those effects as the cycle is reaccelerating. i think we'll be caught off guard by the cycle here. you look at the cyclical sectors from transformers to semi-conductors, financials, all posting new highs to where we were i think it was last august where we saw quite a remarkable
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p peak in the market i think the market will be caught off guard by the strength of the cycle. >> it's interesting you say. that also one thing to go back to that earlier, you didn't quite use these words. i didn't quite read the comments the same way because he did actually say around 50% of the economy, they're not confident that they've entered into a disinflationary process. nonetheless, i'm interested to hear your view on how the u.s. dollar performs from here because as the market prices in some dovishness looking ahead, potential rate cuts, we've seen portions of the greenback. in case your process is true and they end up keeping rates priced in, is that bullish for the u.s. dollar >> if the incoming data proves
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strong enough for the market to believe the fed will get new religion and sort of lead the cycle and we have pressure and market respecting the pressure on what that provides in terms of pressure on risky assets in terms of valuation models, et cetera if the market thinks they're going to soft-peddle it and doesn't think we're going to go beyond what they see, we have a general sense the economy is heating up again without the fed leading but lagging, then i think the dollar could actually roll over. but i do think the dollar rollover is the motion we've probably seen a peak in the u.s. dollar, but they don't always happen at once. the market could come back when they realize the fed will have to do more right now we have very, very easy conditions, all the conditions for the dollar to weaken at the moment, but that's going to ebb and flow as this process -- or as the cycle plays
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out. >> and currencies are obviously not treating one central bank alone. you mentioned earlier that the ecb and bank of england, even though they went for those rate hikes, the guidance was slightly more hawkish the guidance out of the bank of england was to be more dovish. what do you think that does to the currency pairs. >> actually you're right it was hawkish in that they committed to a basis price the sense was that they're hoping for a pause in the meantime the market had built up the most remarkable hawkish expectations so anything that wasn't already delivering on that very high bar looked dovish even though nominally speaking this wasn't 100% dovish they wanted to pause after another 150 basis points the bank of england feeling they
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wanted to go here and now. they're wildly optimistic. inflation forecasts coming in well below 2%. really incredibly putting a risk on their credibility with that kind of inflation forecast if the cycle reheats here so a big impact on sterling as risk sentiment is coming back in here and the strong management is to find a bid the euro just has a hard time achieving more downside versus the euro, so i think we may be near the top of the range, euro versus sterling here it could go a little further, but it does feel like the sentiment is somewhat stream in terms of the relativ> ukrainian volodymyr zelenskyy is set to visit the u.s. for the first
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shares of ionos group has dropped. there were new listings after the ipo market slipped a bit last year. >> it's quite interesting with the shares trading lower after that ipo, the first big one. also our volkswagen sales, vw, its sales and earnings rose last year despite snarls in the supply chain the earnings margin was at the
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top end of its forecast while it beat the 250 billion euros reported a year earlier, but net cash flow came in well below target we've been having a look at the numbers. what stood out to me is that even though the numbers seemed to be in line with expectations, they seem to have a cash flow problem because of those supply chain issues. >> yes, exactly. essentially investors do look at the cash net figure as prove that a company or car company actually does earn money selling cars because you can also sell them at a huge discount and then you have good volume numbers, but you don't have cash flow essentially what happened is they did do some rebates last year because the sheer number volume -- the number of cars sold last year is down by 6%
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what volkswagen is saying, it's mainly because they had real problems with supply chain issues, probably chip problems as well, and logistics as well i guess what they're now saying for the new year for 2023 is they're expecting this to reverse, meaning they will come back and the free cash flow will come back. that should be a positive sign having said that, despite all these problems, all these headwinds, they actually maintain the profitability at the top range of what they were guiding for. that's actually a positive sign. they're actually more profitable than their big competitor toyota which they also compared to when it comes to the mass market production so essentially, of course, it's a disappointing figure, the net
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cash flow position, which is lower than what analyst expected, but the guidance is what counted they're quite optimistic about 2023 especially because they're thinking the chinese market will rebound substantially. there are many problems for volkswagen because currently they're only number three, and they aim to be in the top figure there. >> thank you very much for the summary of what vw delivered today. elsewhere, the economy ministers in germany have concerns over the inflationary reduction act. they met u.s. secretary janet yellen but came home with little other than a pledge to be transparent. europe is concerned the acts undermines competition and blocks the tech firms from the american markets the director general of the world trade organization has warned that the inflation
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reduction act may trigger a race at the bottom without the fiscal capacity to compete. i asked whether the era of euro globalization is over. >> let's look at it this way there's a lot of talk about the end of globalization and decoupling and protection as you say, of course, that is worrying i want to come back to that. the trade shows that consumers may be doing something else. the export of economic growth still following the trend of 50% share and then we look at two-way trade between the u.s. and china, and the numbers released today by the commerce department show that this is
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still robust, about 690 or thereby billion dollars. so when you look at the actual numbers we see of the volume and value of trade, it doesn't quite follow this language of, you know, deglobalization. that being said, there's no doubt there's a lot of geopolitical tension, decoupling, and fragmentation. and this will be very costly to the world if it happens. >> let's talk more about that. let's talk about a signature piece of legislation that came out of the u.s. recently it was met at best with ire from european consequence and the argument is it's providing unfair subsidies to domestic centers. are there in the wto's view some elements of the i.r.a. that are ichb compatible in terms of trades and conditions? >> let's put it this way
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there's nothing in the w 2 that prevented countries from trying to take measures to deeconomize the company torsion take up environmental friendly measures, to try to get to net zero by 2050 or earlier. i think the issue is when we have subsidies that require domestic content, then we begin to get into areas of difficulty, and certainly what we would like to say is that subsidy race will not be something that we see as very helpful because a race to the bottom is not what we want, and, besides, there are many countries that don't have the fiscal space to participate in this race, so this is something we hope we can get away from and hopefully the u.s. and the eu will be talking to each other and other countries that are concerned by the i.r.a we see the dollar going on
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we encourage it strongly and i think it will yield positive results >> so you do not see a risk of a full blown-out trade war between the u.s. and the eu at this point. >> we hope not these are two trading blocks that are quite friendly to each other, and they have various means of talking to each other, various councils that can meet to exchange. we hope it can result in something positive and away from a trade war. >> fascinating to hear ngozi's remarks. i asked her if she saw any issues as we hit the supply chain since the pandemic >> yes, i would say so the supply chain is easing we see congestion is better. and we see that things are good, move much more easily. so, yes, i think -- i think many companies have taken steps to try to deal with the supply
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welcome to "street signs." my name is arabile gumede. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. european markets get off to a strong start with the ftse 100 getting off to a fresh high, bu fed chair jerome powell signals more rate hikes ahead. the the french lender's ceo frederic oudea tells cnbc he expects conditions to improve. >> i expect a soft landing not a great growth, zero plus like in the u.s. as well as in the eurozone, but we see a
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market which holds very well. >> french oil giant total energies doubles its energy policies further breaking the record results from the european energy sector. from the battlefield to parliament, ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy is expected to meet with the uk today and talk with troops training in the country. welcome back to "street signs. rescue efforts continue in turkey and siri after monday's massive earthquake that killed almost 9,000 people. turkey's president erdogan spoke of a state of emergency for ten regions, meanwhile rescue efforts continue to pour into the country. and trading has been suspended
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in istanbul. it's the first suspension in almost a quarter of a century. turkish stocks have seen a fall since the day of the earthquake. of course, we're keeping a close eye on the currency which has fall on the a record low hadley has been covering this tragic story as it unfolds it's having effects politically as well as on the financial system as well too. >> reporter: no doubt about it what we know is some 8,000-plus people have had their lives saved with rescue efforts. we've seen people pouring in trying to get to the area's most hard hit by the crisis what we've seen, aircraft are
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carrying people elsewhere, evacuating people. you understand in a situation like this one, time is of the essence, not just in terms of saving lives but also getting people that are there under shelter, being fed and clothed properly this is a time when many, many people have lost their homes millions are without power we still have serious concerns with getting rescue teams there. there are hundreds of tremors felt afterward the tremors damaged roadways and instability with buildings in 1999 there was a similar earthquake and after that they had essentially changed the building codes to make it more difficult for the earthquakes to have this kind of impact so the success of these rescue missions is being tampered by the overall sentiment, one of questioning, frankly, of the government, at the level of the municipality as well why so many of these buildings were so
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vuln vulnerable essentially had they been following building codes, this type of damage would haven't been sustained nbc is going with a death toll of 9,000 people. the west part of turkey are having a much more difficult time forcing other governments to put their aid directly through them so big questions about how quickly they're going to be able to get to the most affected people in those areas as well. and then the bigger question as you say of the politics of all of this, we're only three months away from presidential and p parliamentary conditions there are questioning right now about whether or not the sweeping authorities that president erdogan has taken for himself over the last several years are going to be even furthered by the emergency measures he's put in place for the ten provinces in the southeastern part of the country. listen to one of my guests
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earlier today. >> hadley, unfortunately we're going to have to leave it there. we're having technical issues. thank you for bringing us the latest as we keep an eye of the situation there and the tragic circumstances that northern turkey and syria have found themselves in. let's take a look at what the oil market looks like. you're seeing the price of wti going up 1.5%. then just below that $80 a mark, though, on that front on a one-week basis also going up 2% this. holding the large part of the gains thus far on the week so very interesting. keeping in this, of course, total's recorded a net profit of
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a billion. it's up more than 6% compared to a year before. >> and eqinor has doubled its profit net profit tripled to $28.7 billion. quarter earnings beat expectations the norwegian company became europe's top supplier of natural gas in 2022 after gazprom cut deliveries of gas. president biden put big oil in the crosshairs over profits. >> last year they made $200 billion in the midst of a global internal crisis. i think it's outrageous. why? they invested too litter in an increase in domestic production. and when i talked to someone who said they're afraid you're going
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to shut down the oil supplieses, so why should we invest in them? >> i said we're going to need oil for at least another decade and beyond we're going to need it [ laughter ] >> we're warning ceos and shareholders, corporations ought to do the right thing. that's why i say we should quadruple -- >> joining us now is our guest it's great to have you on our show i've had a look at this year's recipients for this year's award. seems as they've come up with solar technology increasing the efficiency of the way solar is being captured and distributed what sort of criteria are you
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looking at when you distribute this prize >> we're looking at people who affected humanity in one way or noochlt we another. we look at solar cells they've become the fastest growing and the cheapest form of electricity in many parts of the world, and the big thing about them is you can generate electricity without being connected to the grid. in africa, people who couldn't get next can now get internal. that is the criteria it's not just the genius, but what happens to the genius. >> one of the issues sit doesn't necessarily -- it isn't necessarily creating the
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technologist but the scaling of the technologies you come up with the solution. how do you get it to the remote parts of africa you talk snb. >> that is the point you have to design things in scenario that gets there if you create in the lab, often it stays there a lot of things start up and fail because they can't be scaled so scaling is important. >> it does feel as though, and this is possibly my sense, that it has slowed down just a touch. many businesses still keenly are investing in oil and gas as well at this time does that make the work of the nominees of this prize even more important and significant especially when it moves in the net zero direction
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>> absolutely. i think there has been a bit of a slowdown and investment in new energies we're only at about dare i say a trillion dollars we need to get to a half trillion there's a big gap. they said, let's do everything, and that squeezed a bit of the impetus out of new energies. so i think that's one thing. i think that will come back. secondly, i think oil and gas companies are not the best indicator for what's happening to new energies. after all, their primary business is the production of oil and gas. they go do things other than what they were originally designed to do. >> you know, does more incentive need to be give on the these entities, to engineers as well
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in order to move the needle along, particularly when it comes to renewables? >> there's no doubt. that's happened in the united states with the inflation reduction act which is well known. i think that needs to be copies around the world the important thing about government help sit reduces the risk profile, and the help needs to be removed when the risk is removed. so i think that's an important feature people need to build in. >> i want to go back to something you said about the oil and gas companies, the traditional oil and gas companies who are increasing oil production and increasing their investments of renewables in what they call low carbon technologies is there a paradox here that the architects of some of the biggest fossil fuels in the world are the ones also trying to find the solutions? >> i don't think there's a philosophical debate the fact is that they do know
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something -- when i speak about the oil and gas company, they know about the big oil products, how to get things done and they should be focused decarbonizing hydrocarbons because they will need them for a long time. it would be great to stop methane gases and cut out c02. but some of the other things, i think investors always say, give me the money rather than diversify. let others diversify so there's an open question at the moment about what they can actually do. >> can i just ask your opinion on the windfall tax? obviously many have been against it for obvious reasons at the same time the argument is that it would disincentivize these ferms from investments that doesn't appear to be the case though. >> there's degree and degree
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it's jurisdiction dependent. it's where you make the tax. secondly, there's a limit. i recall at one point in my career we were taxed 100%. that was not good. we had to subsidize the tax pay. so it's a balance. and importantly the windfall profit taxes, you have to take them off you have to be dependent on the windfall but it's right to tax windfalls if you can take effect inially. >> john browne, thank you very much hopefully we'll get clearer sense afterward. lord john browne is the chairman
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disney is set to release its first quarter earnings after the bell investors will be watching for details on bob iger's turnaround plan he returned to the helm of the giant in december. he's expected to share a new vision for the company tim, thank you so much for the time i appreciate it. there are a growing number of subscribers to disney, more than netflix. is that because there's more
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available to disney coming from netflix? >> that's definitely part of it, but also the unfair capacity and advantage that disney has is the global brown ip which net flick has been busily building up over the last decade. of course, disney's got nearly 100 years head start on that that gives them the advantage. also they have a strong founding centric programming approach and they've got some recognizable browns over the past years bob iger's first stint in control of disney with marvel's films being an example all of these gives disney a strong position against netflix. one final thing to add to that with the 2019 acquisition of the
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fox assets which was done under bob iger's tenure, they acquired a hot start, so the leading streaming service in south asia, that's since been rebranded as disney plus hot start and that's going to be a key area of growth for the asia-pacific region. >> i was going to talk about that turnaround plan as well what do you expect to really be the key point to try to turnaround this business >> the reality is bob iger and a lot of his contemporaries in the traditional media space about the challenge and the opportunity of transitioning to a stream first direct to consumer mindset in the company and then creating the right product features and services for consumers to engage with
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those on demand experiences because the reality is consumers are now living in the streaming tv era, so many define this as an era where the technology has changed, but the experience remains the same you're still watching tv, but you're watching on demand without subscriptions. this push to almost critique bob iger's legacy of the best in the proverbial ratcheting going into streaming is misplaced what bob iger needs to do is reinforce the reasons why disney had to make this push and create a coherence narrative around how to turn this into a growth drived a not just the engagement
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we're moving to an increasing environment. >> very quickly i want to pick up on that fact. it seems like we've moved away from the vieshlt of growth at the cost of any growth retention. what can companies like disney plus and netflix do to retain their goals? >> the key for disney especially is to diversify what their offerings are. so they already got an advantage in doing this in the u.s. with espn plus. now, the combination of these assets allows them to create a streaming tv experience. that is like traditional tv. so they've got sports, news, entertainment, everything alongside the scripted drama, the things that subscriptions have netflix double have that so that gives disney an opportunity to grow what's working for them in the u.s.
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market, growing internationally. going to be more challenging, but they've got the abilities to do it with disney's hotstar, with the sports rights they need to be more focused on offering a broader streaming tv experience that replicate what was previously available for tv. >> tim, thank you very much for your thoughts. tim mulligan from media research. a very quick look at the european markets before we head out. it's a positive day. a lot of green on the board. >> that certainly is the case. that is it for the show. thank you so much for joining us this morning my name is arabile gumede. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
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ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. federal reserve raising the basis points to 475. this is the eighth rate hike by
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the federal reserve. >> i still think there's a path to getting inflation back down to 2% without a really significant economic decline or a significant increase in unemployment. >> i think the odds of perception this year are down but they're still greater than 50%. >> i believe another 25 at the next meeting they've got a month off and we'll see what happens from there, and they could be done. it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here's your top "five@5" after a nice pop tuesday where do stocks go from here we dig into what may be the next market mover. president biden delivering his state of the union the social media companies and the key investor takeaways. another tech name you know handing out pink slips as the layoff ripple starts looking more like a wave. zoom, we take a look back at the boom and the bust of what was once to hottest stock onwa
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