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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  February 10, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EST

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, the gamer, his decision to finally confess and give it up, changes nothing in his sentence. he, and his new xbox, will be in prison for the remainder of his life. good morning happy friday welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines >> the japanese yen extends gains with ueda being named the new governor of the bank of japan. and the first abu dhabi rejects the takeover report for standard charter. and uk avoids recession
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after flat lining in the final quarter as economists predict it will take years to make up the lost output. and adidas tumbled as it warns over the disgraced rapper kanye west with suppliers. warm welcome to "street signs. happy friday >> happy friday to you >> let's get to the top story. it comes from japan. ueda will be named the next governor according to nikkei that reports that two will be nominated as deputies. the japanese government is expected to present this to the parliament on wednesday. he was not seen as a
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frontrunner. investors were surprised by his name coming through. >> also the reaction in the market is telling. we are seeing 1% strengthening of the yen which tells you the reaction from the market or interpretation is he is less dovish than some of the other names that had been put forward in the last couple weeks the reaction is telling here we have seen an uptick in bond yields one policy of the bank of japan is to enforce the yield curve control. we have 10-year treasury sitting at 50 basis points that is the upper end of the range. markets are beginning to test that with the view that potentially this new bank of japan governorship with ueda may look to change the monetary policy and move away from negative interest rates and unwinding that ycc policy. that is priced into the market right now. >> it is worth thinking about
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the priorities and tasks for the next governor. we had a guest earlier on asian programming saying there are three cs to look out for for the next governor. consistency and coordination and control of the financial markets. that is what will happen with the yield curve and control policy a lot to play for with the bank of japan let's see what the action is looking like for rest of the markets. >> we are focused on the political results. europe's response to the ukraine request for further assistance and the debate to respond to the u.s. inflation reduction act. let me give you the picture for the whole. ftse mib is the index trading in the green. up .10%. the ftse 100 index here in the
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uk 7,900. this week was a week where the ftse 100 reached an all-time high very impressive results with the commodity and oil and gas giants we had data come through gdp data coming in with uk skirting recession growing at 0.0 december was quite weak coming in at minus 0.5% it does not bode well for the rest of the year cac 40 is down .20%. the dax is about .50% weaker one name to watch is adidas. it is all over the unsold inventory with the yeeze range up at the top here is oil and gas. this sector is doing well. we see bumper results from the
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oil and gas giants and a comeback with the asian demand growing. utilities up .20%. at the bottom is retail. adidas leading the losses. travel is down 1% and health care trading on the back foot. in terms of foreign exchange, let's look at what is going on here the theme pretty much is one of dollar weakness. the mover is the dollar/yen. this is all on the back of the bank of japan governor ueda. we have to see how this pans out in terms of monetary policy. definitely the view was the time is right for change in japan which is why we see the strengthening of the yen over the u.s. dollar. the final sector is european banks. we are in the thic season this is the picture today. overall, the banking season has
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been quite strong. we are seeing, for example, today with deutsche bank down 1.6% they posted results this season and flat with positive results bnp with strong results and looking ahead to next year credit suisse with a comeback up 3 points after negative reaction to the results then standard charter is down five points and there were denied rumors of the takeover for the bank >> standard charter and now uk trade after first abu dhabi bank saying it is not evaluating a possible offer shares spiked on thursday on the london trade after the report that it was going ahead with the $35 billion offer code name
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silver fox trot. that would have been a more than $10 billion premium on standard charter market value earnings season is in full swing. we have been speaking to banking leaders across europe for the outlook for the year. >> a shallow recession or not or mild we expect in the u.s. to be a mild recession, but the more data points we get, the more clarity investors will have. the more activity there will actually show. >> volatility has continued into 2023 in a sense a surprise that the market conditions that we saw in 2022, perhaps not as dramatic, but persisted in 2023. it gives us encouragement that the general view that the volatility and conditions in the macro businesses would taper off over time, but replaced if, you
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l like, in micro areas like credit and m&a and debt. >> this would be a different kind of recession. in nine of ten markets, employment is at the highest level ever in countries like spain and other european countries, consumer has less debt than ten years ago. employment is the most important factor for credit in our case. >> phillip joins us now at federated hermes we are looking at the stan chart in detail today after the issues yesterday and the reversals this morning. what is your take on the reports and the story? you have the first abu dhabi bank saying it is not evaluatin an offer from standard charter what is the real deal here >> it is interesting i don't think it is the last
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episode of the saga. they have to put out the statement there morning because of the uk report we know there is a cooling off period which started on the 5th of january and they have to come out publicly and say they are not contemplating. the cooling off period saand a o of things can happen between now and july they could have someone interested in standard charter and they could come back as for the takeover they could take a large stake in standard charter without taking over the bank. i think we will hear more as we go into july it is interesting because the aspect of this and the politics and trying to recycle the u.s. dollar all morning to financial
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services >> if we do see fab come back or a white knight as you suggested, should investors be reconsidering the standard charter this morning we have a 5% pull back right now. still we have higher given the gains we saw yesterday, but is this something investors should look at? is there merit in this deal should they come back? >> let's tput it that way. this doesn't make sense because financial m&a is about this. standard charter has few people in the middle east, but hardly making any dent. i think it is complex because there are different regulators and i think most importantly is the dollar clear you need the u.s. authorization for standard charter to be taken
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over and you discussed this and fab is cash rich would they really want to pay whatever price and make sense? if you look at standard charter, it is trading on seven times an it doesn't seem expensive. on the q3 last year, there was a little bit of disappointment because they want to scale up the cost and make a lot of f fintech investment costs would be higher than the initial model and the revenue benefits are down the road there is this issue with the valuation and the fact that abu dhabi has a lot of money and looking to make it work from the
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financial aspect doesn't make sense. >> fillipe, i want to turn your attention to another bank in the sights of the saudi bank credit suisse. the saudi national bank has a stake in credit suisse they posted the biggest loss since the crisis investors were spooked at the scale of the outflows from the management divisions what path do you see going forward for credit suisse? do you see a reassuring path to profitability at this point? >> i think it is too early to say. to be fair, i said in the past, debt restructuring under the new ceo makes sense. credit suisse had to swallow the bitter medicine right now. i think it is different from equity to credit in equity, it is a difficult restructuring. only bearing fruit in 2024 and
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2025 and then which is pedestrian and it is supposed to be a less risky credit suisse. and they are frontloading the costs and went out and said they were expecting to have losses in 2023 as it spooked the market perhaps. people should do the homework. 2023 was another difficult year in terms of financial results for credit suisse. >> very fair let's take credit suisse aside i think in certain respects it is idiysyncratic the european season for the banks is positive. banks producing good results and equity and desccent capital and
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share returns. the outlook is looking good. >> compared to the usual results. there is gray area where investment banking decision has been less m&a and et cetera the vast majority to the european banks are commercial in nature i think in that sense it makes sense. t maybe more in june that is a reason for the narrative of ever increasing positive valuation this is actually the big surprise we are one year on almost with the terrible ukraine invasion by russia we were expecting a lot of
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issues to increase costs so far, fingers crossed, the outlook has been relatively benign it is true this year will be a very weird recession we have an issue in spain with the unemployment rate still coming down. we see where we are mid-year >> we will certainly be continuing to keep those comments in mind as the year progresses thank you. head of financials at federated hermes. coming up on the show, speculation amid the reports for the nominee for the next bank of japan governor has already been decided. we'll discuss next why are 93% of sleep number sleepers very satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can adjust your comfort and firmness on either side...
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welcome back to the show big central banking news kazuo ueda will be appointed the next bank of japan governor. that is according to reuters and
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the nikkei which also reports that two will be nominated as gove governors. let's take a quick look at the market reaction and here you can see that it is up a basis point for the jgb. that is the upper limit for the bank of japan yield control. we have breaking through it and some signs that investors think maybe the bank of japan will be ready to move away from that ycc policy in terms of the yen, a notable reaction the yen is a percentage point -- we were a percentage point stronger against the dollar. now .25% firmer. we have come in from the widespread in the week let's get to jane foley. thank you for joining us what is the implication, if any,
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with the appointment of mr. ueda as the next bank of japan governor >> that is an interesting question this is the candidate that was not on most people's short lists for the likely replacement of kuroda if we look through the past, yes, he is a known economist and past member of the bank of japan, but not a lot is heard about his views in the very recent past. he has been publishing economic papers for some years. as you said, when we first heard this news, we saw the yen really pushing higher that was, i think, just because of relief. it wasn't going to be the candidate that the market thought it was going to be the current deputy governor of the bank of japan, who is a known dove the market is reacting on relief actually, you know, one point i really like to get across is that just because we have a different governor, the
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fundamentals of japan haven't sh changed overnight. almost irrespective of who takes the reins, they will be cautious they are still looking for signs of inflation that they are trying to nurture and not going to be too aggressive to beat back that inflation which has taken so many years to try and creep up i still think it is likely we get a cautious person at the helm at the bank of japan. irrespective of what it is and perhaps dependent on the spring wages and perhaps conditions are ripe ripening >> jane, your comments are impressive we are just getting comments from mr. ueda. he is saying the bank of japan
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mondayetary policy is appropriae dovish comments from the bank of japan governor we were 1% firmer and now only .20% firmer now in light of what you were saying in the next governor is expected to be more cautious, perhaps, than the markets are hoping for and yet, jane, if you look at some of the wage growth data that has come through, you here uniglobe pushing through the wage increases for employees. there are green shoots that inflation is coming up after a decade or two of stagnation in japan. >> that is exactly right you know, a lot of focus on the spring worries what will we get this is important for japan. if the analysts can look at cpi and say it is higher and above target they should roll back some of the easy policy. what the bank of japan is
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focused on is domestically generated inflation. that means wage increases. not the weak yen had brought through higher imported prices that does even mean inflation is going to be sustainable. they want domestically generated inflation. they want the wages to come through and people to spend more and that feeds through to better and higher corporate profits which can lead to wage rises that is what they are looking for. the green shoots are coming through. there is scope for some modest change in ueda control and policy in the months ahead it will not be rapid that is irrespective of who is at the helm. >> jane, the next governor of the bank of japan has a stacked agenda how do we feel about the next priorities and the next governor communicating to the japanese community versus the
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international community given what comes next for the boj? >> it is an important time for the bank of japan governor, not least because we see the prime minister approval rating pushed lower. a lot of people in japan as elsewhere are taken aback that they are seeing inflation and seeing real wages and real income deteriorated. that is something elsewhere in the world we can really relate to it is important for the bank of japan to get this right. this is seen by the bank of japan as a once in a lifetime opportunity for them to actually get the wheels of modest amounts of inflation rolling there is lots of academic studies. the bank of japan knows it will difficult to achieve finally in a position in the global economic climate where they may achieve modest
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inflation and really don't want to mess that up. it is important for this governor to get this right and to achieve something which the outgoing governor hasn't been able to. >> your point about how high the stakes are not lost. jane, what does this mean for the yen? how should we think about the outer bounds for the yen >> we have to see this in the context of the u.s. dollar the market is having the battle with the fed of how hawkish the fed will be this year and impact off of that on the dollar. all of this speculation for the last six months, you would and advertise -- anticipate interest rate hikes and learning that was too hasty. we may see policy adjustments this year, but they will not be huge and not talking about the
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hawkish bank of japan. we will see a little less dovishness this year from the bank of japan. modest changes in policy that means there is some scope for the yen to find some support on the back of that. i don't think we're going to be seeing a huge sea change at the bank of japan. >> jane, thank you so much for joining us this morning and helping flush out the story. jane foley head of fx strategy. shifting gears and looking at loreal. coming in at 10.3 billion euro for the fourth quarter a little lower growth than the previous quarter due to the covid surge in china sales should pick up in the second quarter this year shares are down 1.2% charlotte will speak to the ceo of loreal at 11:30 cet this
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morning. euronext posted 1.42 billion euro for the year with the adjusted ebita the exchange group says the consolidation drove the more than 9% jump in revenue. one stock we are watching closely today is adidas. let me bring you a screen shot of how the stock is performing down 10.5% 41% down over the last year. what is the catalyst the company has warned that it could swing to a loss this year. operating losses could amount to 700 million euro should it fail to sell the inventory of yeez yeyeezy shoes. the sportswear maker cut ties with the rapper over the anti-semitic remarks he made li. this is coming at a time when adidas is coming to headwinds.
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this is the fourth profit warning they issued in addition to some of the unsold inventory. they had exited the russian business and chinese consumption slowing down with the zero covid policy last year. >> it feels like a perfect storm for adidas just how big of the impact yeezy has on adidas. it is important to dwell on the scale of the i beliempact. in the release, the company said the impact of not selling with the revenue of 1.2 billion euro. we are talking about a massive impact and massive concentration risk in one brand. >> and also it is not just that, but ivy park, the collaboration with beyonce yesterday, with a report suggesting that brand is not performing as well as they
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hoped. sizeable losses there. julianna, it makes you wonder the period of the big brand and retailers signing up with partnerships with celebrities and influencers is maybe coming to an end. maybe we reached peak. >> it felt it has been a part of the company strategy for the last several years let's pivot back to japan. we have interesting lines coming from ueda. nothing has been decided when asked about reports he would be c nominated at the next governor this is him speaking on japanese tv he said it is important to makes decisions logically whenasked he would conduct policy if he were the nominated and named bank of japan governor >> i think he is hedging it is interesting to hear what he has to say. to jane foley's point, who was
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on the show earlier, he is being cautious it doesn't feel somebody will come in and shake up monetary policy so much so that the market will be surprised so far, the signals he is giving is he plans on continuing along the path of his predecessor doing minor tweaks. we will not get a major shift. very early days. coming up on "street signs," the uk avoids recession as the chancellor sees great things ahead. we'll beig bk. rhtac
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coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines >> the japanese yen comes off session highs as kazuo ueda says the current easing policy stance is appropriate and nothing decided amid reports he could be the next boj governor. and standard charter reports
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that fab is rejecting the takeover bid. and economists predict it will take years to make up the lost output. and adidas tumbles after warning it could take a loss after it doesn't move the inventory of disgraced rapper kanye west we are just over an hour and a half into the trading session. we have fairly down beat session on our hands majority of indexes trading lower. dax down .60%. adidas shares falling sharply after another profit warning as we mentioned in the immediate lines. we have green on the board ftse mib is 8 points higher. in switzerland, a pullback of .70%.
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foreign exchanges showing a lot of focus on the yen. dollar/yen as the yen is holding firm as investors make sense of the reports we could have a new governor on our hands of kazuo ueda he said the decision has not been final yet, but offering color into the monetary policy moving forward we have the dollar trading firmly against the swiss franc euro trading down .20% joumanna. the uk narrowly avoided a technical recession after zero growth in the final quarter. the chancellor jeremy hunt says the economy is more resilient than feared and it could have the best prospect for growth in the new year let's look at the bopound.
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the pound reaction is a tad weaker over the dollar .10% that is where we are and where we have come since last summer and the gilts with the fixed income 10-year gilt is up we remember, we had a substantial rally after the bank of england meeting last weekend we have the senior counselor with us. thank you for being with us. let's start with the uk data fine, we skirted recession in the fourth quarter, but the data is not looking good. for tedecember, we had a contraction. >> you can put the three quarters after the russian invasion of ukraine and say the economy is modelled through q2,
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q3 and q4. if you look at the broad measure of activity, uk was strong last year we have a significant supply through energy and brexit and political uncertainty. it is a story of two halves. on the one hand, the economy is fine spending is good that's an important point. you have this supply constraint. then the question is what does it look like in the first half of the year. then you get mild recession. i think we eventually get one. i'm not pessimistic as a whole >> the bank of england revised the growth forecast from mainus 1.5 to minus .5. more medium term is the question i have the bank of england with people talking about the longer-term growth forecast at 0.7%. that is a low number that comes from years of lack of
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investment we have seen lack of trade flows and productivity where do you stand on the uk longer term growth challenges? >> let's take a backward looking view early 2000, uk and u.s., is the most advanced with the u.s banking capital is razor thin. household levels and businesses with too much debt now slow growth. i put it higher than the bank of england, but it has resilient balance sheets houses are sitting on loads of cash debt is low. on the private side, the economy is a coiled spring if the economy goes less bad, the economy looks better when we say recession, i think we will be between 1%, if we are unlucky, 1.5% down that sayis a mild recession.
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>> and we it comes down to the housing market what is your take on where uk home prices go from here >> i think we are unlucky, it will be double digits. basically 10 or less than 10 it is not excess supply. we don't need all of the supply to bring stability what we are seeing is the transmission of monetary policy through the economy. it occurs through the housing sector housing corrections are not typical. 1990s to 2008. 1990 is a better benchmark balance sheet is fine. you get the low home prices hurting net wealth and consumption and lowering inflation. we don't have the source of fragility from 2007 or 2008 where it could turn into something sinister the housing market with the tight policy in the uk is why it
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will under perform for the next nine months. >> you talk about a coiled spring we could see more optimistic future it feels like the uk is having an identity crisis with the future it wants to look like the u.s. with lower taxes, but incredible public services like the eu and it doesn't understand. >> and unicredit's adviser was saying the same thing. it needs to figure out where it stands on that spectrum. >> for the most part, they want lower spending and lower taxes this is not a special usuaissuen the uk we have trade uncertainty in the eu we had major political uncertainty after brexit i make a conditional forecast here the conservative party are
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following standard center right policies rishi sunak is leaving the market alone labor is third it is a bit lo situation. i don't see if we switched left to right that you would change the economic forecast. that does not apply to france or the u.s. it looks a bit better and it is typical for economies to do well for a while and bad for a while. present circumstances is a good ca caindicat indicator. there are good reasons the economy will perform poorly. this is not a short-term problem. >> collin, thank you for being here now china factory prices fell in january as the sector
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struggles to recover from the pandemic sales were up 2.1% on the year this is the fastest pace on three months driven by the lunar new year policy. sam badas filed this report. >> inflation data from china with producer prices fell and consumer prices rose that tells us the rebound that drove up sticker prices in the lunar new year hasn't reached the companies yet. suggesting manufacturing is taking longer to recover despite signs of improvement the fourth month of deflagtdefl. food prices rose during the holiday, tparticularly
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vegetables core inflation, which strips out food and energy ticked up amid healthcare and traveling demand. it chinese stocks fell in morning trade. yuan pulled back against the dollar there will be a lag with the reopening and pick up in demand with economists expect headline inflation to pick up one economist telling me today inflation pressure may not start to squeeze the pboc head room until q4 analysts don't spec expect to see it run as hot to raise interest rates i'm sam badas. back to you. let's turn to south africa with the state of disaster with crippling power shortages. the president says it is disrupting business. we have arabile in studio to bring us insight into what
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caused this declaration. what is the state of play? >> it has been an ongoing theme. we spoke to mpresident rhamposa with the years and years of power cuts more than 19,000 hours of power cuts were actually put in place. the debt pile for the national utility on power which is s-com has reached 400 billion which is over $23 billion the government deciding they will try to take on the debt a portion of the debt to alleviate the strain and stress on the power utility eskom more than 100 days of continuous power cuts is what is happening now in south africa. that can go on for at least eight to ten hours certainly a very difficult
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situation and now saying the state of disaster. >> arabile, really interesting and difficult story. thank you for shedding light on it thank you for joining us this morning. we will take a quick break still ahead on "street signs," nelson peltz decides to let it go to join the board of disney we will discuss after the break.
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welcome back to "street signs. i've been looking forward to this part of the show. talking about bryan adams. tanya caught up with him and talked about the treatment of the artists in the digital age >> it is a tough thing i was reading something the other day. i was reading 100,000 songs go on spotify every day. that is a lot of noise it is difficult, i imagine, for mr. and mrs. out there to try to figure out what they want to listen to, but somehow it does -- it does work
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this is another reason why if i was going to give any artists any advice, i would say try and put a band together and get out and play to the people because at the end of the day, that is what you want. you want people to hear you. there's no better place to hear music than live. >> bryan, your fellow canadian justin bieber sold his back cat catalog. is this something you would consider >> i imagine he probably thought it was the right time for him. he is a lot younger than i am. even though i've been offered to sell my songs and my music, i haven't really entertained it 100% i'm not ready to do that i might one day. i watched a lot of my colleagues sell up and it might be -- i don't know i'm quite happy with bumbling along trying to work it out
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myself at the minute >> it has been 40 years since you released the album "cuts like a knife." can you believe it has been that long to mark the occasion, there was a live performance at the royal albert hall. what was that experience like for you? >> really good with the three albums we recorded one was "cuts like a knife" and "waking up the neighbors" which was something exciting to do the interesting thing is we will do it again. not necessarily with those three records, but come back to the royal albert hall at some point and do three albums. >> you can catch more of the interview online search for the cnbc conversation do you have a favorite song? >> i have a favorite bryan adams song >> "everything i do.
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and "summer of '69" is a great song in karaoke. >> listening to him there. the first time i heard him speak. something disconcerting about hearing him speak. >> maybe later on the interview if you log on to cnbc.com, there is a possibility he may have broken out in song >> check it out. let's push on and check out the interview later. turk to disney nelson peltz ended the push to join the disney board a day after 7,000 job cuts announced to cut $5.5 billion in costs peltz issued had been addressed in the plan. disney shares up 18% since nelson's plan to join the board a month ago.
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speaking to our colleagues, bob iger welcomed the fight. >> there is not a need he has not articulated a vision or ideas of value to us. some he has, but we were already working on those when i came in, we talked about cost cutting right away. we recommitted to profit ability and streaming. where is the need? >> peltz was celebrating and wished the company well. >> this was a great win for all the shareholders management at disney now plans to do everything that we wanted them to do we wish the very best to bob, his management team and the board. we will be watching. we will be rooting and the proxy fight is over. >> interesting that as he just said the fight for the board seat is over nelson peltz walking away for
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pushing for a board seat at disney a headache for bob iger with the investment plan. investors seemed to like it t. -- like it. >> i think investors seem to like it, but iger is well liked himself. he has strong support from both retail investors and institutional investors. there is a few that perhaps the reason that peltz has backed d down is because he agrees with the plan in place, but going up against iger would never end well for peltz it would not end in his favor. >> this was an opportunity again for him to safe face and walk away he has announced what we would like to see happening at the company with the restructuring plans and the focus on cost reduction and head count reduction which is significant with jobs cuts at disney as
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well that's the end of that story not the end of the story for disney this is just the beginning of the turn around. as were you talking about yesterday with tom mulligan, disney streaming platform is a focus. they spent a tremendous amount of money to acquire users in a manner that is not sustainable in the long term >> the task is big when it comes to the structure, one thing stands out that they will now put all key business operations ranging from budgets to sales and content distribution under entertainment executives previously, itd business executives. you have the disney ceo returning and adopting the peltz
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decisions in place and in a more immediate way of cash to shareholders >> the stock has been positive to the news this week. it is friday let's take a look at how markets have fared for the week as a whole. it is a mixed bag. the under performer was the swiss defensive index down 2%. that is on the back of credit suisse with the adverse reaction yesterday. cac 40 down 1.2. the ftse mib up 1.8 which is on the back of the italian banking system the u.s. markets are ending the week in negative territory nasdaq down 1.8. the focus in the u.s. is earnings and tech earnings and where we go with fed policy from here
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we had the comments from powell saying disinflation process has be begun. >> the tech story is interesting as we tie it to the fed and the policy moving forward and also focus around ai. here is the look at u.s. futures. pull back at the start of trade today. we leave you with the reminder that we saw a further pull back in alphabet. perhaps one to watch today fell 4% following an 8% decline in the previous session. it is incredible the momentum behind all of the ai stories and investment world. we will leave you with that as you head into the final trading day of the week. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm going to go listen to bryan adams now. i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming nt. upex
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it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is the top "five@5. axes swinging across corporate america again. esg pushback the latest deal. and crypto crisis. regulations hitting the bottom line. shares tanking as lyft follows uber. and how trash and trees are helping keep

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